Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/2/17

June 2, 2017

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	Bork: Hello, friend! Apologies for my absence last week. Bork Jr can be very distracting.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: You were dearly missed

9:07	greg: Will FG be doing a live chat for the draft?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Good question for Dave! Bad question for me. Assume that there will be draft coverage to your heart’s content

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: and beyond

9:08	Q-Ball: What is wrong with Addison Russell?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: The same issues as ever — he still doesn’t have a very good blend of contact and power. He needs to either hit the ball more often, or hit the ball harder, and while I know that sounds really simplistic, it is where we are

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: One contributing problem is hype. Expectations got too high. And then, Russell even now is still just 23 years old. It’s nice that he’s kind of cut down on his pop-up problem. But this remains a defense-first shortstop

9:10	Theo: Good first date idea?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Walk in a park. Completely non-threatening, and even if it doesn’t go very well, at least you went for a walk in a park

9:10	Ethan Hunt: Is HanRam done or do you think he can turn it around?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Hanley Ramirez has been an above-average hitter

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: As for playing the field, that’s a different problem, but he’s still boosting the lineup

9:12	JTT: So, Marwin gonzalez’ 1:3 HR/FB ratio isn’t sustainable but all his other peripherals look normal. Is Marwin Gonzalez good now? Also, how about Aaron hicks? Are the Twins the new Mariners, the team that ruins all of their prospects?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Wrote about Hicks some weeks ago — he’s completely zeroed in on which pitches he attacks, and although his current line is over his head, this does appear like a modest breakout

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: With Marwin Gonzalez, I see an improved left-handed swing, but I think he’s more of an above-average hitter than a legitimately good hitter

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll note that he has 10 home runs in Houston and two home runs elsewhere. He’s hit an awful lot of just-barelys

9:15	Sean: Is Tyler Anderson poised for a breakout? The peripherals look absolutely fantastic. What’s stopping those metrics from translating to performance?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the peripherals look fantastic — I think they look fine, or pretty good, but he’s running an identical xFIP- to last season. Quality starter! Not an ace, but the Rockies don’t need him to be one of those

9:17

Aron: If I saw this right, Dyson made three really difficult catches in one game a couple weeks ago – two 4-star catches and one 5-star. What’s more valuable, those three catches or him catching none of them and hitting three singles? Three doubles? Is there a quantifiable ratio between defensive/offensive value like that?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. 4-star catches are made 26-50% of the time. 5-star catches are made 0-25% of the time. Let’s split the middle and say 38% and 12.5%

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Dyson’s catches would’ve been worth 62% of a hit + 62% of a hit + 87.5% of a hit. That’s 2.115 hits. To be conservative, let’s say they’re singles. That’s the equivalent of just over two singles prevented

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Had Dyson made none of the catches, that would’ve been .885 singles allowed, basically

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: So that’s what you’re trying to offset. If Dyson went 0-for-3, there are technically some missing singles. If Dyson went 3-for-3, that would give him more than two “extra” singles

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: There’s comparable value between no hits and perfect defense, and perfect hits and no defense, in this instance

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: That took a while to get through

9:24	Douglas X.: What is going on with Odubel Herrera this year?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: He isn’t good enough to swing this much. I imagine the pressure is beginning to snowball and his approach is deteriorating

9:25	Kevin: How concerned are you with Dansby Swanson? Is he gonna be a guy who might take a year or two to start hitting better? We hear Brandon Crawford as a comp quite often and he was horrible with the bat for a long time.

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the only major difference between 2016 Swanson and 2017 Swanson: 153 points of BABIP. Everything else is basically the same. Now, that does or could reflect worse contact quality, but Swanson was already far better in May than he was in April. He’s not a real good hitter. He should be an acceptable hitter. The hype got a little out of control because of how Swanson’s career opened

9:28	T: Hi Jeff! What was the best part of the trip? And is any part of the Phillies’ Knapp’s above average hitting sustainable?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: The best part of any trip to the mountains is being high up on a mountain. And having the Mountain House chicken and dumplings bag meal. I believe in Knapp’s bat a lot more than the current projections do. No bad signs to this point

9:29

Kelly: It doesn’t seem that far-fetched to suggest that the Mariners losing what seems to be their entire roster to injuries will be a long-term blessing in disguise, right? They were a good-but-not-great team on paper with some significant impending roster issues (old!), so wouldn’t it be good to actually commit to a rebuild instead of striving for a WC2 ceiling?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Two problems. One, on paper, they were more than good enough to contend for a playoff spot. That team needs to get to the playoffs sometime soon

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Two, talk about a rebuild that would be challenging to pull off. You can’t move the old money, and there’s a lot of it in place. The Mariners are kind of similar to the Tigers in that sense. No way to shed Felix or Cano, for example

9:30	Ethan Hunt: So did Christian Yelich peak last season or is there hope for better things?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: He’s fine and will be great

9:31	Erik: Would you take the over or under on the Cubs playoff odds, currently sitting at 80.2%? They look every part the .500 team they’ve played as so far, but the division is weak, and essentially the same crop of players was easily the best team in baseball just last year.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Over. They should win that division by several games

9:32	Sim: Everyone says Nola has elite stuff but he has yet to really put it all together. What do you think has been his issue? Health? Command?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Health, with cascading effects on command. If Nola can ever get back to pitching at 100%, he’s going to be terrific

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: For the record I would advise stopping short of claiming his stuff is “elite.” It’s good

9:33	Jason Vargas: Love me

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: 6.32 ERA over your last three starts with 7 walks and 12 strikeouts

9:34	Will: Aaron Hicks: Discuss

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/theres-another-yankee-taking-off/

9:35

Jiminy cricket: How does a team’s division vs. WC playoff odds impact their trade deadline acquisitions? If teams A and B have similarly constructed rosters but team A has an 80% chance at the division and team B has an 80% chance at a WC, is team A more likely to prioritize looking for a dominant SP to help in the playoffs while team B is more likely to just upgrade wherever?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It kind of always depends on the specific circumstances, but teams will be less likely to swing a blockbuster if the potential benefit is just one single playoff game. Teams want some certainty that a big deadline acquisition will get more than one postseason chance

9:36	Billy: Albert Pujols had a 24.5 UZR in 2007

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Used to be really good at basically everything

9:36	Reginald Denton III: What do the Cubs do with Addison Russell?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Keep him and be happy that he is valuable

9:37

Cistulli Chat: 12:00 Carson: Hello Everyone and welcome to the chat

12:01 Fangraphs Reader: What do you think about my favorite team?

1:05 Carson:
(2000 carefully chosen words on ‘Fangraphs Readers’ favorite team, life, and how it’s all meaningless or maybe not meaningless)

1:06 Carson: And that’s all I’ve got time for today I have to go garden. Thanks for chatting

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I do love that Carson ends up getting activated for our postseason live-blogs

9:38

Moltar: In your Insider piece today you talk about how Harvey still has the stuff to be successful, but no longer generates swings and misses. Is it reasonable to think that Harvey is still less than %100? If the Mets’ injury prevention program wasn’t a dumpster fire, would he have been better served starting the year on the DL and pitching a full compliment of rehab starts?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Well, that’s impossible for us to know and be any kind of certain. My hunch is that Harvey had his delivery kind of screwed up when he made that emergency start against Atlanta, but that’s just uninformed speculation

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I have yet to do a real Harvey deep dive. But it’s instantly clear that his O-Swing even from last year has dropped 10 percentage points. That’s a problem with his secondary stuff, and not his fastball

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: …which then becomes a problem for his fastball, since hitters can look for it

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure I’ll put together a Harvey analysis before too much longer

9:40	Hank: Will the Braves be able to flip Jaime Garcia for a solid return?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Contract year, long history of health problems, extremely mediocre performance. Nothing much going to happen here

9:42	Jack: What are the chances we see anyone trade international cap space at the trade deadline? Will teams wait until the offseason?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: High, right? We’ve seen these trades happen midseason before.

9:43	The Professor: The park factor for Wrigley seems extremely unfavorable this year. Do you think this will continue? Would you rather have me or Gerrit Cole RoS?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs have played 25 home games. That isn’t enough to tell you anything

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a good reason why park factors are calculated based on several years of data

9:45	Front Office: Will teams continue to hire more analytics personnel or have we hit a glass ceiling?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: more more more

9:45

Zeke: On the one hand, it’s remarkable that am 80% depleted, Gallardo-led rotation should have been able to go .500 in May. On the other, Dipoto traded for Smyly (an injury risk), signed Iwakuma (who didn’t pass his Dodgers physical), has Felix (with more miles on his arm than, I don’t know, a really old car), and Paxton (who is so damn good and also gets hurt all the time). What did he expect? I admire the depth Dipoto built but also wonder about the initial construction.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Easy to ask the question after the fact. Dipoto made no secret of the fact he was assembling a bunch of rotation depth over the winter. It’s not weird that so many pitchers have gotten hurt. It’s weird that they’ve all gotten hurt at the same time

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: That’s where teams really get killed

9:46	Zonk: Runners have been successful vs. Jon Lester only 6 times in 14 attempts (43%!), despite his very well documented inability to throw to first. Is that attributable to a fast delivery? Willson Contreras? Baserunners STILL not geting a big lead? What’s up?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I took a quick look at this a little while ago and it’s a combination of things, but there’s a big chunk of almost randomness. A handful of strikeout-throwout double plays. Lester has actually achieved a pickoff or two, throwing to second and starting a pickle

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Runners continue to mess themselves up, but it should be clear by now that, in reality, Lester just isn’t as exploitable as it seems like he should be

9:48	PF: I don’t know if you are a “prospect guy”, but if so, are Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette the future of the Blue Jays offensive core?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I am not a prospect guy, but I am a guy who will tell you that you probably shouldn’t expect too much from a couple of teenagers in A-ball

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Which is not to suggest that they aren’t good prospects. Or even great prospects! They’re very talented. But there are so, so many forks in the road in front of both of them

9:49	Gary: Is it time to talk about Marwin Gonzalez?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Small part of me thinks this is the position-player version of Jason Vargas

9:51	Zeke: Who would bring back a bigger haul, Paxton or Quintana?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Paxton

9:51	CamdenWarehouse: I really like the idea of looking at the delta between a pitcher’s Z-Swing% and O-Swing% from the Tillman article. Does a big difference there suggest that a pitcher is having issues with the movement/stuff on his pitches?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: It can mean a few things. It can point to problems getting ahead, or it can point to a lack of quality secondary stuff, since that’s usually thrown out of the zone

9:53	Sean: Do you reckon it would be (1) prudent; and then (2) feasible for the Rockies to dump CarGo for whatever they can get and insert David Dahl as his replacement?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: They should’ve traded him before now, but they always overvalued him. I don’t think he’s someone they should just drop, but he could and should stand to lose playing time

9:54	Matt: Jeff. Derek Holland’s K%, GB%, BB%, etc are in line with his 2013 numbers and before. Are we seeing him get back to his former self and being an interesting rotation option? Seems like those bad years were just plagued by injury.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: His stuff is still pretty depleted when compared to his peak. Holland these days is playable, but I wouldn’t expect him to ever be a No. 1 or 2

9:56

Erik: Do the Cubs’ struggles this year change how you think about their previous season? Maybe that doesn’t make any sense, but last year they seemed like an unstoppable juggernaut, and their collective slump this year makes last year seem more fluky. It’s almost as if they have to win 95 this year to prove they deserved to win 103 last year.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: There was an extended stretch in the middle of last season when the Cubs went 12-20. They were still the champions and the obvious best team in the game

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: I understand what you’re getting at, but from a psychological perspective there’s also the possibility that last year’s success has in some way *contributed* to this year’s slow start. Maybe some of the urgency is just missing. Maybe the players are more worn down since they played an extra month of baseball two consecutive seasons

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: It is somewhat changing the way I think about the Cubs’ 2016 defense

9:59	Kevin: What’s wrong with Aledmys Diaz :(??

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: For some reason his discipline has eroded. Was better in May than in April, but he’s gotten too aggressive for what he is

9:59	Reginald Denton III: Are the Phillies losing patience with Maikel Franco? At what point do they give up on him?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but not very soon, given how little else they have going on