Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/24/14

June 24, 2014

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello, readers of this chat

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to this chat

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I will apologize in advance that while I usually chat for 2+ hours, today I’ll be confined to more of a typical Dave schedule. Will I compensate by chatting faster? Absolutely probably not!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: And per usual, don’t bother asking me fantasy questions that you don’t dress up as better, more real-life-relevant questions

9:03	Comment From Mark All you can eat content buffet!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Well probably no

9:04	Comment From Lil Papi I sure would love to see Mookie Betts take a major league at bat. When do you think I’ll get that privilege?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: The deeper the Red Sox sink, the less incentivized they are to make an upgrade on the fly, so I figure they’ll be patient with Betts and you might see him before September.

9:04	Comment From person hscer do you know if the defensive metrics know what to do with this play? http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/game…

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: submitting this blind…

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: The answer is no! I mean, the defensive metrics know to credit Espinosa with a pretty routine play made

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously it wasn’t routine, and while plays like this are rare, consider this another reason to put error bars on all the defensive evaluations

9:06	Comment From Anton Only a matter of time before Choo bounces back?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: He’s playing hurt right now, right? Doesn’t want to take himself out because the team’s already been ravaged by injuries? Wouldn’t shock me if the injury is just preventing him from playing at 100%. So he should get better on the other side of the injury, whether that’s later this year or in 2015

9:07	Comment From Tony G. Does last night’s blow up end Beliario’s disastrous reign as Chicago’s closer?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I can honestly tell you I give no consideration to the closer roles on last-place teams

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Whether or not Belisario keeps the job, what does it tell you that he still had it up until yesterday? What does that say about him and what does that say about the others?

9:07	Comment From Rated Rookie Hector Rondon: a sometime shutdown closer, a sometime shut the front door disaster.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: So, he’s most closers

9:09	Comment From Andrew With rumors of Cole Hamels being available in a trade, what do you think a realistic return would be for him? And who might be a suitor for him?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I just don’t see him getting moved with that much money attached. There are other front-line starters available and the Phillies wouldn’t get enough of a haul to justify a deal in their minds

9:10	Comment From American League Hustle With Raul Ibanez being released last week, does that mean Cron will become close to an every day player now?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: until he catches up to his walks and strikeouts

9:11	Comment From King Buzzos Fro As this Washington NFL thing continues, are you like me in wishing the Cleveland Indians would change their name “back” to Spiders? Creepy-cool?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: The first-ever baseball team to sell literally zero articles of fan merchandise

9:11	Comment From Andy The Red Sox have an option on John Lackey for next year at the ML minimum. How the hell did that happen?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Protection for a specific injury. I think the Lackey clause was the first of its kind but we’ve seen it pop up in a few places since. The Mariners have such a 2020 option for Felix Hernandez

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: 2015 36 Boston Red Sox *$500,000 $500k Vesting Option Club option at minimum for 2015 if Lackey misses significant time 2010-2014 due to an elbow injury

9:12	Comment From Erik What the hell is happening with the Mariners? 2nd in MLB in run differential? 5 games above .500?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It’s nonsense, beautiful nonsense

9:13	Comment From Minny Manny Any idea what the Twins plan on doing with Alex Meyer?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: He ought to be next in line, but given that last year he threw just 78 innings, he’s going to be managed extremely conservatively

9:14	Comment From benj Brad Miller has a pulse! Has he visibly changed anything to your eye? Seems like he’s making better contact on stuff down in the zone.

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: He’s certainly making better contact. I haven’t performed a deep analysis to try to identify why, but, basically, this is why you don’t demote a guy to the minors after a two-month slump. This is also why there’s so much sense a lot of the time in trusting the projections. Miller needed to make adjustments, and now he’s making them and playing like the good player he should be

9:16	Comment From Nick Do the Mariners have staying power because of their pitching?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Like Chris Young’s low-3s ERA?

9:16	Comment From Vliet I’ve see and heard the phrase “positive regression” several times. The words by definition have opporite meanings. What exactly is “positive regression”

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Multiple definitions of regression

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: If you have a guy playing over his projection, he’ll probably regress down to the expected mean. If you have a guy playing under his projection, he’ll probably regress up to the expected mean. It’s just a return to what you consider normal

9:18	Comment From Jasper Hi Jeff, do you think pitchers like Matt Cain and Tim Hudson looking away from the target gives them extra deception and helps them defy BABIP convention?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Mike MacDougal: http://assets.sbnation.com/…

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: My assumption is no. I don’t think batters try to figure anything out by looking at the pitchers’ faces. I think they have to look at the baseballs, and a number of pitchers end up looking away from the target upon release

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I’d love to know why every deceptive pitcher in baseball is deceptive, but I don’t think this is going to be the key for any of them

9:22	Comment From Bret Hi Jeff, would you be so kind as to tell me the names of a few players you could see becoming the Blue Jays second or third base solution at the deadline?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: The options aren’t great, but I’ve been expecting Nick Franklin to be a Blue Jays since last winter, so maybe now is when they decide to roll the dice on a kid

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: /resume Nick Franklin livechats

9:24	Comment From Catoblepas There’s no reason for the Red Sox to blow it up, right? Should they see if they can ship a starter off for some chips and call up some young guys, or is there any reason for them to make a big splash in either direction?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: No real good reason to make a big splash with things looking the way they look. Just going to be a matter of licking wounds and getting back at it in 2015. Few teams are better equipped for a quick turnaround

9:25	Comment From the impatient fan Hey Jeff! How come teams that are buyers aren’t looking to make a trade ASAP? Why wait until near the deadline? A trade helps now. Any extra wins can make the difference.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Buyers need sellers, and few teams want to admit that they’re sellers in June

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: But the Cubs moved Scott Feldman very early last July, so there could and should be some motion within the next…week and a half?

9:26	Comment From Xolo Say you’re part of the Padres’ three-headed interim GM – what do you do?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Veterans are moving. Quentin’s moving, Kennedy’s moving, Benoit’s moving, Street’s moving…

9:27	Comment From max fisher players alex gordon is pretty baller

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: His defensive numbers are obscene but even if you normalize those a bit he’s quietly awesome

9:28	Comment From Anton Michael Brantley’s BABIP is up, as well as his LD%… Any reason to believe he can keep up his LD%, therefore keeping a high BABIP and AVG?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Well we know he’s hitting the ball with more authority, right? And he’s also pretty quick, so one could buy him as a .310-.320 BABIP type. Probably not .333, but then that’s such a small difference that it’s not like I think his line is going to crater

9:29	Comment From Rags So Arrieta? That K-rate real? xFIP likes him a lot more than the projection sytems…

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a 27% strikeout guy — he’s not Felix Hernandez — but he’s not what he was. Right now he’s developing, and he has shown some strikeout ability in the past. Big green arrow right now

9:30	Comment From season tickets What did you think of Chris Davis’ pinch hit walk off home run last night…more Davis being Davis or Belisario throwing a meatball? and do u think the white sox continue to put him out there?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I thought it was super-dramatic and awesome

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Beautiful dinger

9:32	Comment From Johnny Rockets Re: Mookie, who do you see as a good short-term projection comparison? He feels like an Altuve-type.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Tommy La Stella with oomph? Could be a struggle to walk early if pitchers come right after him, as they could upon seeing his size

9:33	Comment From Patrick What kind of return could Chase Utley garner in this current market?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: My understanding is he’s basically certain to not waive his no-trade clause

9:34	Comment From Rated Rookie How intertwined are the pitching performances in Seattle (Erasmo) and Tacoma (Taijuan)?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: They want to make the move, but they want Walker to deserve it. So far he hasn’t been super in his return

9:34	Comment From JB Hey Jeff! Did you get your interest in baseball writing and analysis start by just writing a lot or did you read a book or series of articles and were like “I want to do that?”

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: In high school I used to hang out on the ESPN baseball message boards. Which were dreadful, but a few people got me started on those annual volumes of Baseball Prospectus. You know Adam Morris from Lone Star Ball? He was around back then, and he might’ve been the guy to recommend BP. I liked BP’s analytical style and snark, and then I found USS Mariner, and before too long I developed enough of an ego to try to branch out on my own

9:36	Comment From King Buzzos Fro Brian McCann is off to a terrible start at the plate. This guy’s batting average and doubles have been in decline since about his 4th season. Any reason for optimism?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: No. 1 reason for optimism is last season he slugged .461 in an actual ballpark

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: But obviously you do start to wonder about a catcher with that many innings and that many years. He was mediocre as recently as 2012. He might just be an average hitter now, and while his defensive value is strong, that’s not what the Yankees thought they were getting, yet

9:37	Comment From 1st place jays Can you see the Rays trading Price to an AL East team?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure I can see an AL East team populating the Rays with its young talent

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: The Rays would have to worry about facing Price in the division for a year and a half. The Rays’ assets in return would be around for the better part of a decade

9:38	Comment From Catoblepas I was listening to the Jonah Keri/Bob Ryan conversation and the topic of UZR and shifts came up. How does that work?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Not well enough. I don’t know all the ins and outs of UZR, but I don’t think UZR acknowledges shifts enough, and that’s going to be a growing issue

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I’d love to be corrected on this matter as I am not a UZR expert

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if anyone besides the one guy is a UZR expert

9:41	Comment From Anton Is there any way to predict how many home runs a player will hit? I would guess that you look at FB% and HR/FB, but are these stable or predictive at all?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously the best indicator is historical track record, and this is just going to be a part of the projections. But I think power tends to be a more stable skill than BABIP or the like, so usually you know if a guy will hit a lot of home runs, or not a lot of home runs

9:42	Comment From Carl Ner Baseball is weird. Lucroy, Donaldson, and Dozier have been some of the most valuable players in baseball. Explain the sport of baseball.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Everything in baseball is constantly changing and now that we have access to more information than ever, maybe we shouldn’t be shocked when some players make turns that seem shocking

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Or maybe these are independent of that information era. Players have always gotten better and worse, and if you end up in the majors it’s probably because you have an incredible skill base. Lucroy, Donaldson, and Dozier have turned that base into All-Star productivity. No one in the majors is helpless

9:44	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Do you still think the Jays win the east?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I do still think that!

9:45	Comment From 1st place jays Best 3-4 duo in the majors? Has to be Joey Bats and EE, right? Or Miggy and V-Mart?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Or is it Tulo/Dickerson? ?????

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: It’s Bautista and Encarnacion

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: And it’s close. And for god’s sake, Lind is in there too kind of

9:46	Comment From King Buzzos Fro We need some trades to spice this thing up like sriracha! Give us your craziest trade scenario please

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Dave’s idea of the Cardinals trading Taveras would be good for getting people talking a lot

9:47	Comment From Christian I can’t wait for the Brewers Athletics World Series where the two biggest stars are a stadium prone to sewage flooding and someone how destroyed a man’s career to coverup his PED use.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Today I learned Ryan Braun is tied in WAR with Mark Reynolds

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: he’s sixth on the team, well behind Gomez and Lucroy

9:48	Comment From 1st place jays Stroman as a starter: 2.43 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 16.4 K-BB% , 0.91 HR/9 , .291 BABIP. And according to Eno’s article from today, Stroman has two plus pitches. What was your opinion on Stroman before the call up? And has it changed now that he has had success?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing’s changed. I’ve been a quiet believer, to whatever extent I know anything about prospects

9:49	Comment From 1st place jays Thoughts on Andrew Heaney?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s talented with a limited ceiling. Should ease into the majors, but I don’t think he’ll be a front-of-the-rotation type

9:49

Comment From commendatori
Did you see John Lackey screaming last night during the third inning? It wasn’t mutter or huffing under his breath, it looked like full-blown screaming. Was he yelling at himself or a teammate? Do you think pitchers usually scream at their teammates during the game, or is it more typically directed towards themselves?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: John Lackey is constantly screaming

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: It’s just venting. He was having a terrible inning. It’s not aimed at anyone — it’s just a release of inner tension and anger. I’m sure his teammates are used to it

9:51	Comment From Dan How soon do you see Brock Holt coming back down to earth? Can’t have a .390 BABIP forever, even with his speed

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: The last three weeks, he has a .370 BABIP and a .692 OPS

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I loved that weird diving catch he made out of nowhere in left-center field, but the legend of Brock Holt is that he’s a quality regular. The truth is somewhat less flattering

9:53	Comment From Opti-mets-tic Curtis Granderson is waking up, hitting and walking a ton, David Wright is waking up too. Do you see the Mets dealing Daniel Murphy along with Colon, or will they try to make a run?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not making a run, but if d’Arnaud performs at all, then they can start to feel all right about a more solid 2015, with Harvey and Syndergaard

9:54	Comment From Johnny Rockets What are you thoughts on Khris Davis’s turnaround from a terrible start to mashing like Mike (and walking, too)?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I almost wrote about him but I didn’t want to be too Brewers-heavy. He’s made some encouraging adjustments since the season’s first month and while I don’t think he’s a blossoming superstar or anything, I’m more willing to believe he’s a starter now than ever

9:55	Comment From Steve Do you like Travis D’Arnaud as a player? I’m excited to see what he can do riding his hot streak out of the minors.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s all right. I think he doesn’t need to hit at too high of a level to be a serviceable regular catcher

9:56	Comment From King Buzzos Fro What generalities can you make about a team who’s pitchers ERA outperforms their FIP or vice versa?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably either luck or defense

9:56	Comment From Newb Is someone going to teach Lawrie to stop blocking pitches with his hands? Seems like he has been HBP in the hand like 4 times this year.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: No wonder he always seems so mad

9:57	Comment From 1st place jays So the Cubs are asking for Sanchez, Norris and Dalton Pompey for Shark. If you were the Jays, would you say yes?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I’d try to get them to back off a little bit but quietly I’d be very willing to let go of Sanchez. I’ve expressed this sentiment before but I’m personally deeply skeptical of those sorts of pitching prospects

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I know you can’t really teach a guy to have a big arm, but when a guy doesn’t have repertoire depth or command, how often does that come around, really?

9:58	Comment From Pirates Hurdles Pirates – stand pat or deal for impact SP? Kinda seems like a stand-pat situation to me.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I like the in-between path. I think they end up with a new starter who’s fine without being shiny. I identified Brandon McCarthy a week ago and I think that’s a fine level. Maybe even Ian Kennedy?