Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/3/16

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s baseball chat

9:06
Bork: Hello, friend!

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:07
Ben: Dae-Ho Lee vs RHP: 189 wRC+
Dae-Ho Lee vs LHP: 130 wRC+

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t care about the splits as much as I care about the overall line. Lee works! Kang works! Kim works! Park works!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if it’s time to seriously consider the return of Eric Thames

9:08
Bork: The Padres sure showed Ron Fowler he was wrong!

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: At least the position-player part

9:08
The Decadent Moose: With the impending Evan Scribner return, is there room in the bullpen. If so, what’s his role?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: There is room on account of the fact they just promoted Cody Martin. There’s always room in a bullpen. He’ll be low-leverage at first

9:09
Barves gotta Barve: What’s with all the Subaru’s in Portland?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Generally an active city, and a Subaru is probably the best compromise between drivability and durability. Doesn’t consume too much fuel and it makes trailheads and put-ins and whatnot more easily accessible.

9:10
Zonk: The Cubs run differential after 50 games, +128, is the highest since the 1939 Yankees. History!

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve slowed down of course — of course — but even over the past few weeks, when they’ve gone 12-9, they’ve outscored their opponents by 31. Only the Giants have had a better Pythagorean record

9:12
Dustin: Jeff, let’s pretend that 100 pitches is a good marker for pitcher fatigue. I know it’s more complicated, but let’s just say that it is… Doesn’t it drive you crazy that pitch count doesn’t take into account pick-offs, warm-ups before innings, catch early in the day, etc. Like, we have this arbitrary ‘pitch count’ thing that completely ignores other actions of the same type (throwing). No real question here other than ‘does this bug you’… Idk, maybe talk about your thoughts on it? This was a mess of a question.

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: It does bug me in a similar way to how we don’t have any measurements for how often a reliever gets up but then never gets into the game. Throwing in the bullpen isn’t too dissimilar from throwing in a game. Now, throwing actual pitches in an actual game figures to be the most taxing thing, due to the adrenaline and stakes involved, but those other throws all matter. I think 100 functions as a convenient simple proxy. As you get close to 100, you monitor how the pitcher is feeling, and then you operate on that knowledge

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: It is kind of a wonder to me we don’t see more injuries on pick-off attempts given how the throwing motion can sometimes be super weird

9:14
Kal: Can Trumbo keep this up all season?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: No, but he already has his highest WAR in four years

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: That trade has already paid off for the Orioles and we’re a third of the way into the season

9:15
Curtis: 99.9% Win Probability is NOT equal to 100%.

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Last team that needs to be reminded of that is the Mariners

9:15
JayDun: Haven’t seen much on the site about Dae-Ho Lee, who seems to be flying under the radar. But his numbers look great. Can he keep this up in an everyday role over a full season?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine he actually gets the chance given Adam Lind’s track record, but you can buy the bat. The power is real, and he’s made league-average contact. Don’t buy the 154 wRC+, but…120? Sure, I’ll take 120

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Remember that the thing about Lee in Japan was that he hit for power while controlling the zone. Park, by contrast in Korea, struck out a lot. So that’s a variable

9:19
j6takish: Jeff, how have the Tigers managed to have a below average bullpen for like a decade straight? You would think just by how many guys they cycle through, they could have collected a few decent relievers by now. Is this an org problem or just coincidence?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: For whatever it’s worth, the 2011 bullpen was fantastic. The next couple years it was also okay

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: But! For fun, over the past decade, Tigers relievers are 24th in WPA. Yankees are No. 1 by a mile. Astros and Mets are at the bottom

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I think a lot of it is just weird bad luck, but like, Rodriguez/Wilson/Lowe was supposed to be a thing this year. Rodriguez and Wilson should be fine, but Lowe has completely given back his velocity gain. So now he sucks

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Up 3.3mph last year, down 3.3mph this year. I don’t want to speculate on why that could be happening…right when Lowe was just about out of baseball…but it’s happened. And this year’s version is bad

9:24
Kal: Will the Mets ever give Conforto a chance to learn to hit LHPs?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: 92% at-bats against righties last year, 80% this year. He’s getting some more looks

9:26
Argo: Where do you fall on the matter of Chris Archer? Bad luck, bad approach or injured?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s a mechanical problem that’s costing him location, but even at his best, Archer wasn’t a pinpoint sort of pitcher. He’s usually just past that line of acceptable wildness, and now that he’s taken a step back, the walks are spiraling. He is better than this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if last year in the first half was his career peak

9:29
Andy: Hellickson looks much better this year than in the past. What’s he doing differently?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: facing pitchers

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Less snarkily, he’s throwing his best changeup in years. That’s a pitch that compels hitters to expand, so Hellickson hasn’t been forced into the zone too much. He’s kind of getting back to where he was when he was initially interesting

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Hellickson is right around a career-high strike rate with a career-low zone rate. That reflects well on his secondary stuff

9:32
Argo: Brian McCann is sitting a lot lately. Is this just a slump or is he becoming a platoon player?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Think it’s just a slump. He hit lefties fine the last two years, and his overall platoon rate this year is right in line with the recent past. Yankees probably just trying to make sure not to over-work a 32-year-old backstop

9:34
Hoops: Any chance of bouncebacks from Abreu and Freeman?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Freeman’s fine, though he’ll have to deal with the pressure of being the only bat in the lineup. Abreu is too talented to struggle like this but he’s having a devil of a time catching up to high or inside heat. So the next adjustment is on him

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Abreu is in a similar kind of place, offensively, as Puig. Getting busted in, then exploited away

9:35
Kal: Whats your outlook for Chris Archer?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: ERA in the upper 3s

9:35
D: Anybody you could see th dodgers going after in trade season?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Every half-decent reliever on the planet

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll have to wait a month or so to see how the injured starters are doing, and/or whether Urias adjusts

9:36
Curtis: What is the most effective type of pitch in baseball?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Good fastball

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Most pitchers would be nothing without one

9:37
Q-Ball: Dexter Fowler has gone from a defensive disaster, to average or even a slight plus. Apparently, it’s all due to positioning, moving back a few steps. Is OF positioning a hot thing? Are there other OF that could benefit from shifting positions?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we know that it’s all because of positioning. I think that’s just a guess, based on correlating defensive improvement with a positioning switch. They could conceivably be almost unrelated — you don’t want to get too hasty. But this will be an increasingly common thing to discuss as we all get more Statcast information. Teams have access to this stuff for the first time, and we’ve seen, for example, the Cubs and Pirates take the info in different directions

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have the data at my fingertips, so I don’t know who might benefit from moving in or out

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: That stuff is kept privately by MLBAM

9:39
Gary Guy Yetti: What can MLB do to ensure the best talent takes the field? As a Phillies fan, I know this is not our year, but playing Ryan Howard at all feels like tanking whether intentional or not. Keeping the fans appeased by keeping him might only be delaying the emergence of the next great slugger…

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s be honest here: if the Phillies had a candidate to play first base, Howard wouldn’t be on the roster

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: They don’t, so, here we are

9:41
Sean P: Given how many important current Red Sox players were found by Theo Epstein/Jason McLeod, how impressive of a front office feat would it be if the Red Sox and Cubs faced off in the World Series? The Theo vs. Theo Series

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: and then Ryan Hanigan drives in the winning run for no reason

9:41
Ben: Hi Jeff, Everyone is talking MadBum hitting stats following last night and the numbers are pretty impressive. Think the Giants would ever consider using him as a DH in interleague/WS games?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: They have used him as a pinch-hitter. There’s a little more injury risk having an ace bat three or four times, but if the Giants had enough players on the DL, Bumgarner would probably become the best option

9:43
Argo: Which impending call-up from the minors are you most excited to watch play in the bigs?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: I suppose Taillon or Hoffman

9:45
Bob Dobolina: Tell me good things about the Yanks?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: they’ve outscored the Mets!

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll settle for good thing

9:46
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Of the teams that are clearly attempting a rebuild, which one has made the most progress towards returning to contention over the past year or so?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Gotta think the Phillies

9:49
Q-Ball: What is your take on the Ronald Fowler, Padres owner, rant? Do we now know why Preller made all those seemingly frantic deals after he was hired?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: My interpretation isn’t that Preller was responding to pressure from above — rather, I’m going to guess Preller sold his bosses on the idea that he could turn the club into a winner, quick. That’s an easy thing to sell but a challenging thing to execute, as evidenced by, you know, those miserable failures

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: A team chairman should never go public like that with those sentiments but it’s not like Fowler was *wrong* and he made sure to credit his front office and coaching staff. He’s right about the players — they aren’t good enough. He’s right that the performance has been embarrassing. It’s some bad PR but everyone is in agreement, and this is why the Padres need to hit the restart button

9:53
Zorak: Should the Mets try to make an aggressive trade for some infield help or try to ride out the storm until closer to the deadline? Think a guy like Solarte would be a good fit?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I think they have a couple weeks to test out the depth they have and see how Wright is recovering. If he needs surgery, and/or if the depth pieces in house prove insufficient, then it’s time to get a head start on the market

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: You wonder if they could get the A’s to part with Danny Valencia

9:54
Chris: Is Profar going to become a trade chip with all the bats in the Texas system, and if so what teams do you think would pair up well?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: The best-looking fit right now is Profar going in a package for Lucroy

9:55
JR: Speaking of the Mariners (I’m sure somebody will have mentioned them by now)…do you see Dipoto making a big deadline move to put them over the top or staying the course with what he’s got? I’m sure there will be a bullpen depth move or 2 but an LF upgrade from Aoki or replacing Adam Lind sure would be nice.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I definitely don’t see a big deadline move. We’ll see if anyone gets hurt, but the team doesn’t need a splash, nor does it have the pieces to exchange for one

9:55
Gary Guy Yetti: Keeping in mind the Petco dimensions, their financial situation and all other tangibilities, what would a rational Padres GM do to build a competitive team quickly

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Not try to build a competitive team quickly

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: But I’d be pouring money into international areas. Try to play up the location advantage in luring Japanese and Korean players

9:56
2-D: Who would have a better season if given the chance, Madbum the hitter or Bethancourt the pitcher?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Bumgarner as a hitter

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: We’ve seen him go deep a whole bunch. I’m unconvinced Bethancourt has stuff to get strikeouts

9:58
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is it reasonable to expect a new power ceiling for Mookie, or is what’s happening lately just a power surge that will subside when pitchers start pitching around him?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Of his 14 home runs, six of them would’ve left fewer than 10 ballparks, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker. He’s definitely one of the kings of the just-enough dinger

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: But it’s not like that isn’t a skill — he makes consistent good contact, and in some parks, that leads to four bases. I could see 25-30 homers in a peak season from him

9:59
Andrew: Are the Mets in trouble after this year? Cespedes and Walker gone, Wright a shell, d’Arnaud can’t be counted on, Duda incredibly inconsistent. The pitching is great, but could the window be a lot smaller than we originally thought?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: You can see some cracks if you look close enough, but they’ll go as far as the pitching takes them. With that rotation, when the arms are working, they’ll be perennially competitive

10:00
Dear Jeff,: I’ve seen some people proposing a Gallo for Teheran straight up trade. Rangers need pitching, but they seem to overrate Teheran a bit, no?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a big fat no on the Texas side

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I always try to caution against judging prospects by their ceilings, but you don’t dump Gallo’s ceiling for a No. 3 starter

10:01
Zonk: What teams still think they are contenders, but really aren’t, and should throw in the towell?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think any team close to the race should throw in the towel right now, but if the Yankees don’t shape up soon they should be aggressive about marketing their relievers

10:02
Keeper Question: Is the young shortstop class (Correa, Bogaerts, Seager, Lindor, etc.) going to continue to emerge as a group, or are certain people going to break away from the pack?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I could easily see one taking off and one stagnating or something, but I’ll be damned if I could tell you who. They’re all so unbelievable

10:04
Giants: So if you were the Giants GM, what would you do about the outfield? Sit tight with current replacements? Explore trade now? Wait til trade deadline to address if necessary? Something else?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing to be done right now — teams don’t really start talking trades until after the draft. Which is okay, because Parker probably deserves a longer look. I’d be content to roll with Parker/Williamson for a bit and then re-evaluate. They’d be a great fit for a version of Ender Inciarte with less team control remaining

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: The market for affordable position players won’t be good, because there aren’t many bad teams, and the bad teams are bad for a reason. Odds are probably that the Giants sit tight

10:08
Dull Ryan: Is Billy Butler’s recent hot-ish hitting just noise, or could he possibly be on track to be anything other than a negative WAR guy going forward?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: He has five hits since May 28, and five hits since May 18

10:09
Francisco Liriano: Am I toast? I’m looking at some of my numbers on your fine website and I don’t see much to be encouraged about.

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: You’re probably just a minor tweak away from getting swings out of the zone again

10:09
Brett lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: Favourite fact/stat from the Mariners/Padres massacre last night?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: The obvious one. You don’t have to dig deep for fun facts when a team erases a 10-run deficit

10:10
Kyle Hendricks: So I think I’m pretty good. Nationally, no one knows who I am though. How good do you think I am?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: No. 3 starter

10:11
kevinthecomic: Jeff, thanks for chatting. I enjoyed your article “Leonys Martin has stopped being a slap hitter”. Would a similar analysis of Eduardo Nunez be warranted? Granted, there is some babip inflation, but I’m not sure that explains all of it. Thanks again.

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think we’re at that point with Nunez. He reminds me of the hitter he was earlier on with the Yankees, when the biggest issue was his horrible defense. He’d always had a little bit of pop

10:12
James: Hey Jeff, do you know of anywhere keeping track of pick-off attempts and successes?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Sort of! Hold on!

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: doesn’t seem to have anything for 2016

10:14
10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Four Angels right at the top of the AL pickoff leaderboard. OK!

10:16
Frankie: Byung Ho Park has been terrible over the last month. Still believe?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: 103 wRC+ since the start of May. I’d of course like to see fewer strikeouts or more power, but it’s not like he’s helpless. He really *is* Chris Carter

10:17
Zonk: Is the KBO more competitive than we thought?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Seems that way. Although Dae Ho Lee spent four years in Japan. I think it’s a respectable league, and the majors have selected from the very top of it. Kind of like Cuba — the range of ability is enormous, and lots of players there suck, but the best ones are legit.

10:19
3_2count: Should the Dodgers keep Urias in the majors or should they send him back down to AAA? Doesn’t seem like they have any better options.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: They probably don’t have any better options. They do have *other* options, but Urias was going to see the majors at some point this year, and they might as well give him an extended chance to see how he handles it and adjusts

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: He’s very obviously not a 9 ERA starting pitcher

10:20
Bork: Is Eric Thames gonna get paid or is he gonna get PAID?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll probably actually be penalized for his mediocre big-league record. That can be held against him, where the other players who’ve come over have been relative unknowns. But Thames could get a job, I bet

10:22
Sir Nerdlington: This CBA negotiation should be fascinating and provide significant changes. But it won’t. If you were head of the MLBPA for what would you fight hardest? Seems to me that finding a way to better distribute the wealth between team controlled players and free agents would eliminate team friendly deals, making more free agent money available, since the first million comes sooner. Win, win or feeling the Bern too much?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know exactly how much the union cares about underpaid young players vs. overpaid old players. That’s how every union is shaped, more or less. They’ll probably fight hard against the QO. Worth reading this Dave article from the past winter: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-coming-fight-why-the-next-cba-wont-be-so-easy/

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: (Sorry about the hiccup, lost connection again)

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Something that’s gotten a lot of visibility is the seeming decrease in the rate of revenue going to the players over the past 10 or 20 years. If that were actually true, then that very obviously becomes priority No. 1. However to my recollection Tony Clark hasn’t actually voiced that concern, suggesting the public numbers aren’t accurate. It’s quite possible that, in reality, the player share *hasn’t* meaningfully diminished

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Nevertheless, the game is making insane money. So just generally speaking, the union will do as much as possible to ensure receiving as much of that money as possible

10:29
Max: is a Swihart for Teheran with lesser minor league pieces on each side reasonable for both teams?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: If Boston has really soured on Swihart as a catcher, then the Braves should try to get all over that

10:30
Billy: Did you see Nathan Bishop’s offer for you to return to Lookout Landing and recap the game if the Mariners win the WS? Would you take him up on it?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Clever ploy on his part because if the Mariners won the World Series who would want the role of designated recapper?

10:31
Mustfah Alli: Does Taillon make an impact this year if so how much? Season savior? Playoff darling? Bridge to Glasnow?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll both be pretty effective, with Glasnow struggling with control and with Taillon struggling with innings limitations. Don’t expect any season-saving — that’s too much pressure — but the Pirates have rotation depth knocking on the door, and they’re going to be playing more high-leverage games

10:32
Ray: % chance Jays takeover the AL East by the end of the season?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe 20%? I pretty strongly prefer the Red Sox

10:33
Dull Ryan: The A’s are .500 at the All-Star break and no one else in the West is running away with it. Any chance they hang onto Hill?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: If other teams are too skeptical to offer much, then Hill would probably stay, in that situation. But it seems he might be lined up to be the best starter available in July

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be fascinating to monitor that — Hill is proving his effectiveness, but he hasn’t really proven his stamina. How much would you trust him as an add for the playoffs?

10:34
mike g: now that will smith is back, will he the 2nd most wanted LHP?(after miller, of course)

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, as long as he looks like himself

10:35
Jeff: Why are Dodgers fans panicking on Julio Urias? He’s 19 years old. And thus far in his minor league career, he has shown the ability to make adjustments after poor outings. The Dodgers and their fans need to be patient with him or they’ll ruin a great prospect

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Fans are irrational, which is why teams try their hardest not to listen to them

10:35
Brett lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: Jeff, please give me some reason for optimism about Sonny Gray when he returns

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Everything Sonny Gray has ever done in the major leagues before this year

10:35
Sung Min Kim: Heard there was a Padres scout that attended Eric Thames game few days ago so you never know!

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: It begins!

10:38
Kylo Ren: I can’t figure this out and I know it’s a straightforward answer–if you sort by team DEF, why are so many NL teams higher than AL teams? Is DEF normed for league?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Gotta just be that AL teams are having a DH positional adjustment folded in, while NL teams aren’t. League-wide fielding has been mostly the same

10:41
Cruz!: Is Fulmer actually good? He seems like a worse version of Garrett Richards – which is still plenty good.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Good in Double-A, good in a little action in Triple-A, good in the majors. The record says good! Now, repertoire-wise, I’d like to see him improve his changeup, which is a pretty generic criticism, but even if he runs into occasional spots of trouble with lefties, he strikes me as a big-league starter. Good get, good asset

10:43
Zonk: Is today’s Jacoby Ellsbury pretty much what we can expect moving forward? Diminished speed, OK defense, not much power. Overall pretty average.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: A few years ago, Jacoby Ellsbury signed for $153 million. Now it’s 2016 and every so often I have to be reminded that he exists

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a bad player at all. He’s actually remarkably consistent. He puts the bat on the ball and he plays an adequate center field. But he’s a high-priced player who kind of looks a lot like David DeJesus, and in his day DeJesus was totally forgettable just because of how consistently boring he was

10:47
Fliam: Thoughts on Dylan Bundy’s stuff in 2016?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: The strength is there, but he hasn’t had a real good breaking ball, so that’s been easy to eliminate. And then that makes his fastball easier to hunt and hit, hence the numbers he’s sitting on

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: You see the reasons for the hype, but this isn’t a complete pitcher

10:48
J: What would it take for the Dodgers to be sellers at the trade deadline, and what would they have to sell? Also, is it to soon to be so pessimistic about the Dodgers? Help me Jeff!

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing wrong with being kind of disappointed by a .500 team that was supposed to be more like a .600 team but they’d have to go in a deep deep slump to sell pieces off. In a theoretical sale, Jansen would go. Maybe they’d finally cut bait on Puig. Not a ton else

10:50
The Noid: Where does last night’s mariners game rank for you, in terms of gratifying regular season wins?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Top 1%. Only thing that could make it better would be it happening in September instead

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: or against the Rangers or something

10:50
Not that Ben: After James Shields getting shelled by the Mariners, is he still a hot commodity on the trade market?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone knows he’s diminished, and not worth his salary, but he’s one of those proven workhorses and the pitching market blows.

10:51
Belted: Have the Giants built enough of a cushion in the west (5.5 games) to keep the division against your ROS projections?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Mathematically, yes!

10:52
Brown: Miami Marlins. What?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: They always had the core talent. Now they’ve been filled out a little more. Dietrich has been fantastic in stepping in for Gordon. They’re having the year the Diamondbacks wanted to have

10:53
earlsghost: Jeff: there’s been talk that the Orioles will pursue another decent starter at the trade deadline. Shields is the name most commonly heard but there will obviously be competition for his services. What other teams could you see as possible sellers and what might be the names of alternatives? Thanks.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Might I be able to sell you on one Jeremy Hellickson?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Or perhaps a very underwhelming Andrew Cashner!

10:55
JC: Let’s say the Mariners win the world World Series this year, but Felix never puts up another season over +1 WAR… Do you make that deal with the devil?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, because I’m a Mariners fan more than I’m a Felix fan, but I prefer the reality in which I don’t have to try to make any bargains at all

10:56
mtsw: Estimate the number of MLB pitchers who are currently better than NPB wunderkind Shohei Otani right now.

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: 20?

10:56
Hopeful Texas Fan: Does Jurickson stick in the majors or get traded? Part of just hopes they stick him at short. Also, what’s the use in leaving Gallo in AAA with an 1.100 OPS?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Profar sticks without an injury. Just not enough playing time to go around. As for Gallo, I’m sure they’d like for his attempted adjustments in Triple-A to stick. You don’t want to rush a guy like that. But he has a big-league future this season if Moreland/Fielder continue to blow

11:00
Chris: Nomar Mazara is hitting ~300/350/475 on a ~30 home run pace as a 21 year old. Conventional wisdom says he’ll get better with age. Where does he improve? What do his best years look like, offensively?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: He could stand to refine his discipline, and he could stand to learn to do more to the opposite field. I mean, that’s what would allow him to be a complete hitter. As is, he’d kind of like Odor

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: He’s doing more than I expected him to do in this initial cup of coffee. Very encouraging.

11:02
Max: Do you see anything from Folty that says he has a good chance of reaching a #2 starter?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Good chance? No

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: I do like that he’s a strike-thrower, though, who keeps swings at strikes down. There’s some sort of deception there that’s improved from last season

11:05
Chris: What would Clayton Kershaw’s numbers look like if opposing batters knew his pitch sequencing (not location) ahead of time? EG he tells them he’ll throw first pitch fastball, second pitch curve, etc

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: The last few years Kershaw has thrown a ton of first-pitch fastballs and it’s not like that’s hurt him at all

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: But if I’m going to be honest his numbers would be a lot worse. Hitters wouldn’t chase the offspeed stuff out of the zone. They’d key up on the fastball. Sequencing is a huge, huge part of his and anyone’s success

11:06
Mitchell: With the new aging curve showing that players only decline, how do you account for players adjusting to the major league level? Is it 1 or 2 years in the majors and then they probably just won’t get any better at all?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Some players adjust, some players don’t, and general aging curves don’t apply to every player in particular

11:07
Bryan: Talk me off the ledge with Votto

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: If you’re on a ledge because of Joey Votto’s underwhelming offensive statistics you’ve got bigger problems

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s not very helpful

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Since April 27, Votto has a 125 wRC+ and an extremely high hard-hit rate. Also, there’s his entire history. There’s no player in baseball I would worry about less

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: in Votto’s age group

11:09
Bryan: Can Brad Miller put it all together?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: He’s always going to have his defensive questions, but his wRC+ is back up into the triple digits. He’s a 3-win player, probably

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Just saw a rumor that the Cubs “will look at” Andrew Miller as a trade target. I’ll be damned. I will be damned.

11:12
Stu Martin: Is Adam Duvall for real or just a hot player?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Average player on a hot streak. Discipline isn’t good enough for him to count as good. Turn a few of those homers into slight mis-hits and his numbers tumble. But he’s a good find

11:13
Chris: If Jhonny Peralta proves healthy and productive, can the Cardinals move him for anything valuable at the deadline this year?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think they’re going to be selling, and position players of his ilk don’t fetch big deadline packages

11:14
Felix Hernandez: My release point was fairly consistent for all pitches in 2014 when I was amazing. It’s been all over the place the last two years, in which I have been bad (relatively speaking). Is there a correlation here?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: No question about it!

11:14
Sirras: It’s my birthday – make me feel better about David Wright

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: He is alive and wealthy

11:15
Loof: Has Billy Hamilton turned a corner? .288/.321 over the past 30 days.

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: I’d be interested if he didn’t just rack up a ton of hits in Colorado. That part leaves me underwhelmed

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week on some day that isn’t Friday, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/3/16 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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