Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/4/13

June 4, 2013

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: New excuse for this today!

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I lost my contact lenses!

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I found them though. And now we can begin our customary baseball live chat about baseball.

9:09	Comment From Steve It’s past 12:03! Jeff must be dead!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I couldn’t see 🙁

9:10	Comment From Jimr Is the 3rd base issue settled with the Braves?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Only for now. As Chris Johnson regresses, the Braves will explore the market for potential upgrades. At present, the market hasn’t yet developed.

9:11	Comment From rusty On a scale of one to Carson Cistulli, how interested are you in pitchers’ first few MLB starts?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Highly interested, relative to the rest. I’m interested in new people and I’m interested in debuts and adjustments. After a few games everyone starts to feel familiar, and that’s great and all, but new’s new

9:12	Comment From Eminor3rd Hello, Jeff Sullivan. Please describe each of the following nouns with one word: Chris Davis Spacetime Kevin Gausman Chicago White Sox Expensive food Thanks!

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: inconceivable inconceivable inconceivable inconceivable conceivable

9:13	Comment From David Is today going to be all about mocking the ESPN Franchise player draft going on concurrently? Or do we expect to talk about other things too?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll need you guys to pay attention to that as it’s live, since I’m stuck right here talking to you guys

9:13	Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i) Did you see Tango’s response to your pitch framing thoughts?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: About MGL’s study? Yeah, and that methodology is better than mine. I’m not capable of doing that kind of stuff. If it’s there, it’s there, and that’s great. That’s outstanding! And a little surprising.

9:14	Comment From P Mauer’s swinging rate is up, his contact rate is down, his K% is way up and his results are…good? Anecdotally it seems like he’s trading weak grounders to second base for swinging strikeouts, but is his performance (BABIP fueled as it is) even remotely sustainable?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: This is actually the first I’ve noticed of this trend, and it’s interesting, given that we’re at the two-month point or so. As much as I don’t believe in LD%, it’s interesting that Mauer’s is up at 28%. Obviously he can’t continue having this many balls in play drop in for hits, but it makes sense that he’d ride an approach while it works, and as Mauer’s numbers regress I wouldn’t be surprised if his plate-discipline numbers start to look more familiar too

9:17	Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i) If one finds himself literally doing nothing at work is it time to take up blogging?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Depends how often. Rare is the opportunity that an adult has literally nothing to do. You should cherish that time, if it’s unusual. If it’s too usual, yeah, do something else

9:19	Comment From Rob Do you see a potential closer on the Tigers’ roster as of now? Or is one of the AAA guys (Al Al, Rondon) looking more likely?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: When I looked at this last fall, I liked Alburquerque the most, and not a whole lot has changed in terms of the composition. But usually you don’t want a closer who walks that many dudes. Rondon, I’m still not buying his ability to pitch to lefties. He seems like another situational guy in a bullpen potentially full of them. The Tigers can make do with any of their decent relievers, but there’s not a shutdown option in sight

9:21	Comment From Prich No backup glasses?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I feel a lot more alert when I’m wearing my contacts

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t you tell how alert I am right now

9:21	Comment From GOB How worried should we be about CC Sabathia’s velocity and performance drops? Trying to decide whether to value him as an ace or not in a trade.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s some kind of good news: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=404&position=P&pitch=FA

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: Sabathia’s numbers are a little bit worse, but they’re mostly in line with where they ought to be, and when velocity is down I look to the performance to see if it’s suffering. I think maybe you knock Sabathia down a peg or two from his reputation, but he’s still a real good pitcher so I wouldn’t advise being too alarmed

9:23	Comment From Jeffs Contact Lenses I was THIS close to escape!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: You were on the handsoap!

9:23	Comment From Scott When referring to Adam Dunn as a baseball player, is it more appropriate to put the scare quotes around the word “baseball” or “player”?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball would be more appropriate, but it would still be inappropriate

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: not in a dirty way

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: in the literal way

9:24	Comment From Tim David Glass is mostly an absentee owner, but how many losses this season would it take for him to fire Dayton Moore?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, 90-95? Such similar situations in Kansas City and Seattle. Such similar excuses. Eventually, people stop listening. Both teams should strongly consider starting over

9:26	Comment From _David_ As pitch framing becomes more publicly prominent, could there be a backlash in some form with umpires targeting, consciously or not, known framers?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: I think this would be interesting to follow — umpires, surely, are going to start to know about the best and worst guys. They probably already know who they are, but they might not be aware of the extent to which they help/hurt. So you could conceivably see some regression at the framing extremes. But I don’t think it would be major, because what an umpire sees is what an umpire sees and he’s not going to think through every call on every pitch. Subconsciously, there could be a thing, but I think the practical effect would be small.

9:28	Comment From Zach Who makes the playoffs first, the Astros or Marlins?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Marlins by a year

9:28	Comment From Ben Have there been any studies on pitcher performance after they have to run the bases?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve at least heard the suggestion but I can’t think of anything off the top of my head. Hypothesis: it has very little effect!

9:28	Comment From Kate Being blind sucks. I couldn’t find my glasses the other day.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Probably because you were blind

9:28	Comment From French Poodle So Puig is going into the Hall of Fame before Jackie Bradley Jr now huh?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: All the great outfielders have amazing arms, like Jeff Francoeur

9:29	Comment From Anon21 What’s a healthy ratio of schadenfreude-derived joy to regular joy in baseball fandom? For example, if as much as one-third of my current enjoyment of baseball is derived from the woeful performance of the ludicrously overconfident Washington Nationals, is that… too much?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the identity of your favorite team. The worse your team is, the more you have to look to other teams for emotional satisfaction

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I’m loving the hell out of what’s happening with the Angels, but that’s mostly because my favorite team sucks

9:30	Comment From Guest #1 Im starting to think the worst thing a rookie can do is overachieve in theure rookie cup of coffee. If you look at Desmond Jenning, Hosmer or Lawrie, they are almost guaranteed to disspoint for their entire careers

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Ackley!

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: It definitely helps to set unreasonable expectations. And oftentimes the initial expectations are unreasonable to begin with. You’d rather a guy succeed at first than not succeed, of course, but quick success doesn’t prove anything, any more than Mike Trout’s initial struggles proved anything

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: And fans can be really crappy about this stuff

9:32	Comment From Kate What do the Rangers do with Jurickson Profar? What should the Rangers do with Jurickson Profar?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I think they keep him around as a semi-regular. And I think they should keep him around as a semi-regular, since he’s better than the alternatives. Going into next year, move Kinsler and/or Moreland

9:34	Comment From Rated Rookie Kevin Gausman: groundball-inducing power pitcher?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: His grounder rates are unexceptional, but he’s definitely not a fly ball guy

9:35	Comment From Max Who will be better ROS: Cargo or Braun?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t go wrong with either. This is unhelpful! But true. Flip a coin. Flip it again. Keep flipping the coin. Then pick one of the baseball players after you put the coin away.

9:35	Comment From The Masses Thoughts on Bo Puig?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I wish I could watch him without having heard everything everyone’s already said about him

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I want to be able to observe a guy like Puig without everybody chiming in. I want to be free of potential biases and that’s practically impossible

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: He’s neat and flawed and potentially incredible

9:37	Comment From rusty What changes, if any, would pique your interest in national-team-organized baseball?

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: This is a stupid cop-out answer but I want changes such that the players actually care. It’s too complicated a topic to think of off the top of my head but you’d need to loosen the restrictions or increase the incentives somehow. I honestly don’t know how feasible it is to have a true, meaningful tournament when everyone’s thinking about the regular season and no teams want their players to get injured.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers, man. Pitchers are too damn fragile for extra tournaments.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you go with amateurs. Maybe you go with non-major-leaguers. But MLB team affiliations get in the way of this stuff.

9:39	Comment From Brooklyn Burro Which young A’s starter would you want to start for you on the road (i.e. away from the Coliseum): Parker, Milone, Griffin, or Straily?)

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: My head tells me Milone. My head then tells me nobody really stands out from the group so it’s silly to pick one out of four.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: They’re mostly so similar. There’s no hidden right answer, I don’t think

9:41	Comment From Three Little Puigies Headley to the braves really seems to make sense…. Right?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, some, but the Padres might be unwilling to make a move since they’re not all that far off and their pitchers ought to be getting healthy soonish

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see if the Padres decide that Headley isn’t really the superstar he was in 2012. They’d like to have a franchise player

9:44	Comment From SidneyCrosby(Not) Thoughts on ROS McLouth?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: A lot of this year’s McLouth, a little of last year’s McLouth. He’s made a certain change, with the increased contact, and that can’t be entirely dismissed

9:45	Comment From Metsamorphosis RoS line for Skaggs

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly for this sort of stuff you should take the projections’ word over mine

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Seldom am I going to consider myself more informed and objective than the actual data

9:46	Comment From Brett Speaking of 3rd base issues, do you see a regression to the mean for Will Middlebrooks or should the Red Sox explore other options?

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: Both, but the latter won’t really get them anywhere, probably. They could use a better sub than Ciriaco, to spell Middlebrooks some more. Sorry for taking so long to write this nothing answer but talking about Middlebrooks always sends me into research mode and that’s not appropriate for chats

9:49	Comment From Jimr Will Gibson (SP) be brought up soon for the Twins?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much without question

9:49	Comment From Steve Thoughts on Nick Franklin so far? Yahoo curiously lists him as “Eduardo Franklin” just about every other day before reverting it back to Nick.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I believe it’s “Edmundo” Franklin but maybe it varies

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: He’s got a disciplined approach and a line-drive swing. He looks like he could make a quick adjustment to the majors, even if he doesn’t become a star, which he won’t. He might well be adequate right away

9:53	Comment From Charlie Hustle What’s your take on Corey Kluber?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Not much I don’t like. God bless the magical cutter. Hard to fake the results he’s been able to generate.

9:54	Comment From Anon21 Jayson Werth’s preseason statement that the Phillies were the biggest threat to the Nationals is almost too rich now that the Phillies are threatening to pass the Nationals… for second place.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: See? He wasn’t wrong!

9:54	Comment From Nick O How many times in 10 would a ML starter with average command trying to throw a fastball on the outer third of the plate succeed?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think maybe 6/10 times, he’d hit the outer third, and maybe 3/10 or 4/10 times he’d hit the outer third around the intended height

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Depends on handedness and batted handedness and type of fastball, ,of course, and this is guesswork. But pitchers aren’t that good at locating! Relative to what you might expect

9:56	Comment From Kevin At this point teams’ claims regarding pitchers “consistency” at AAA is just a cover for Super-2 status, right? I’m looking at Wheeler and Kyle Gibson.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Big part of it, yeah, but they all always have consistency concerns. Every young pitcher is inconsistent. Most older pitchers are inconsistent. The giveaway is when you see which prospects get promoted around this time of year. They didn’t all have magical early-June breakthroughs

9:57	Comment From the Philly Fanatic should cole hamels try to fix himself like Niese did and look in the mirror?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like Cole Hamels is probably constantly looking in the mirror

9:57	Comment From Guest #1 Does every team have a fielder occasionally practise pitching, just in case?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Not officially, I don’t believe, but position players are constantly “pitching” when they’re throwing back and forth with one another. They’ll always try to mess around with grips and secondary stuff to have some fun

9:58	Comment From Alexander the Great They are doing the Franchise Draft over on ESPN. Who is your top 5 to start a franchise with?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. First of all, no pitchers

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Harper, Trout, Machado…Longoria? Tulowitzki?