Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/20/18

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06

Jack: Who would you take for the rest of their career, Greg Bird or Jake Bauers?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Bauers. Even though I think they’re both perfectly fine right now, Bird is 25 and Bauers is 22

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: That’s an impossible age gap to overlook

9:07

Ross: So all within the last few weeks, the Kings got Ilya Kovalchuk, the Lakers got LeBron James, and the Dodgers got Manny Machado. Has any city ever had a better month than L.A. just did in terms of exciting acquisitions by their sports teams?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Now, I’m not following all that closely, but are we assuming Ilya Kovalchuk still has a whole lot left in the tank as a 35-year-old who hasn’t played in the NHL in years?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: LeBron being in there alone pushes LA toward the top. Few athletes like LeBron. I don’t know, has some city recently acquired an elite-level quarterback? Manny Machado pales in comparison

9:10

Mac Gwire: What move do you think the Yankees should make before the deadline? It seems like their greatest areas of need have nobody available to help.

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: I’d just target a back-end starter and another good reliever. The starter would just be there to help over the next 2.5 months, and the reliever would allow them to stack quality innings in the playoffs

9:11

Jeff Sullivan: Similar to last year, when the Yankees’ bullpen was so good and so deep. You don’t need the rotation to do very much if you can get six strong innings from your relievers every day

9:11

ChiSox2020: Nice work with the trade value series. How do you evaluate Stanton’s trade value? Big contract, big production. Do you think he’s a net positive?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: I do not. Stanton was already minimally valuable above his contract last winter, and now his strikeout rate is up eight points. Not many teams could take him on, and even fewer would want to

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: This is always a little uncomfortable because I love Stanton as a player and as a dude, but since we’re talking strictly in baseball terms, he’d be very difficult to move

9:13

Poised: Should the Rockies trade Arenado in the off season or try and make a last push while he’s there?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies were pretty good last year, and they’re pretty good this year. They’re likely to be pretty good next year. What pretty good team ever trades away the best player on the roster?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not saying it doesn’t make a certain amount of sense in theory, but in reality, that’s an unsellable move. Players and fans would be furious

9:15

John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt: Are you buying Hoyer’s belief that the Cubs see positive regression?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs are on a 97-win pace. No

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: There are certain individual players who are likely to do better in the second half, but it goes in both directions. Jon Lester, for example, has a 2.58 ERA and a 4.35 FIP

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs are very good. It’s cute that some people think they’re so troubled

9:17

Mac Gwire: With Machado and Hand already gone, who’s left? Are we in for a boring 2 weeks?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, yeah

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: The next two weeks will be *active*, but unless the Mets actually trade deGrom, the biggest splashes have already splashed

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: I’m sorry but I don’t really give a shit who ends up with Mike Moustakas

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Most of the current sellers are really, really bad. Teams that are really, really bad don’t have many high-level trade assets

9:20

PJ: What are Luis Castillo’s chances of having a decent second half?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: He’s been a lot better since the calendar flipped to May and while his ERA is over 5, his xFIP is under 4. I’m still a strong Castillo believer

9:20

James: The Astros and all of their full season affiliates lead their leagues in strikeouts. Is this a coincidence or part of a bigger strategy?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: From top to bottom, the Astros are a juggernaut

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: It’s all anecdotal, but I don’t think there’s a better organization in baseball with regard to player development. They just know how to get value out of raw ingredients

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: The Astros are going to be good for so long

9:22

Tim: Buck Showalter should just retire after this season, right? Or at the very least resign. He’s too old for this shit

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: Showalter’s 62, but Jim Leyland was doing it until he was almost 70. If anything, I think Showalter wishes he had *greater* responsibility

9:23

Matty P: Candid thoughts on Indians Padres swap?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Indians came out ahead by a fair margin

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: Not that I disagree with the idea of the Padres cashing in a couple good relievers, but I don’t think nearly as high of Mejia as so many other people do

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: Real chance he doesn’t catch, and real chance he keeps swinging at everything

9:25

John B: Will Marwin Gonzalez salvage his season and have a good 2nd half? It looks like he is a little unlucky.

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: After what happened last season, Marwin’s career luck is still comfortably in the black

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: I think he’ll be a little better in the second half, but he’s still not a guy I’d want to be playing every day

9:27

Mac Gwire: Should the Nationals trade Harper if they fall 10 games back by the end of the month?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: They should at least entertain it. But I can see why there might not be a blockbuster available, if his numbers were to stay down

9:28

Slew : Hi, Jeff! Agree with the 1-2 trade value ranking for Ramirez and Lindor?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Really hard not to. Even if I wanted to move them, I couldn’t do it by more than a couple of spots. They’re just such a fantastic duo

9:29

Bo: How does Acuna project in CF? Inciarte’s struggles at the plate are getting tough to swallow.

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: It’s all just BABIP stuff. I think Inciarte is still really a 90-100 wRC+ kind of guy, and with his defense, you want to have him in there

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: For his career, Inciarte’s WAR/600 stands at 2.6, and he’s 27 years old. He’s just fine

9:32

Fail son: In two years do you think the braves or the Phillies has the better rotation (exclude hypothetical free agents)?

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: I guess I’m at about 55% Braves/45% Phillies, but it also doesn’t make sense to exclude hypothetical free agents since one of the Phillies’ big selling points is their spending power

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies have the better rotation right now, but the Braves appear to have more high-level guys coming, for however predictable that might or might not be

9:34

Jack: Has James Shields had a decent enough year that a contender could look at him to slide in as a 4 or 5 in their rotation if the ChiSox eat some money? He’s in the last year of his deal and I feel like this could be the last year of his career, and it’s kind of a bummer to see him spending it on a team like the White Sox

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: I expect that Shields will end up somewhere else, yeah. Maybe in August. Obviously, the White Sox wouldn’t be receiving very much in return

9:36

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Gregory Polanco has gotten his wRC+ up to 120.  If he can maintain that and if his defense regresses to career norms, he can still be a stud.  But what the heck has happened to his defense?  is it mostly noise?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Outs above average, according to Statcast:

2016: +4
2017: -1
2018: -1

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: Our numbers make it look like Polanco has gotten worse in 2018; those numbers make it look like he got worse in 2017. I’d think of him as simply an average defensive corner outfielder, for now. Neither a plus nor a minus

9:39

Derek in Little Rock: Thoughts on FanGraphs being the outlier (versus Baseball Prospectus and 538) in favoring the Nationals to win the NL East?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: BaseRuns actually thinks the Nationals have been a little better than the Phillies, and the Nats, of course, have been really banged up. It feels like our projections are a little too down on the Braves, so I’d knock the Nationals’ chances down some points, but I still think of them as being very strong

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Instead of having the Nationals at 46%, I might have them at…30-35%

9:43

Bo: Do the Braves really need to trade for bullpen depth? Why can’t they use some of their prospects in AAA out of the ‘pen down the stretch?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: They need help, especially with Vizcaino sidelined again, and while in theory they could promote any number of their young talented arms, shoving them in a stretch-run bullpen could easily be disruptive

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Not that it shouldn’t be considered as an option, but there are enough relievers available that they should be able to acquire an upgrade without giving up entirely too much

9:46

Mattyb: Do you see Seattle acquiring any offensive upgrades at the deadline or do they just wait for Cano to come back?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if they might be somewhat interested in a short-term Leonys Martin reunion

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Guillermo Heredia has been exposed as a nearly everyday player. They could also bring up Vogelbach to play more often at first

9:49

Stop Sliding Head First: Hi Jeff. Trout, Correa,Bryant last year. Several players this year and last night Tatis Jr hurt Sliding Head first. It is a dumb injury in a game that is hard enough already. Do you ever see a Team banning their players from Sliding Head First?

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: Mike Petriello on this, from 2015! https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-death-of-head-first-sliding-hopefu…

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the New York Times, from 2017! https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/sports/baseball/headfirst-slides-in…

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: “Video analysis of half of the games played in the major leagues in 2015, prorated for the entire season, estimated the rate of injury to be one for every 249 headfirst slides, compared with one for every 413 feet-first slides.”

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: “Managers generally discourage players from sliding headfirst at first base and home plate, but there are exceptions depending on the particular play. The widespread feeling is that major leaguers should make their own decisions in the moment and that injuries are an inevitable part of the game.

“A lot of what we do on the field is instinctual, not instructional,” said A. J. Hinch, the Astros’ manager.”

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think a team will ever outright *ban* the headfirst slide, because some players think it’s faster, and you get a little more control over where you’re making contact with the bag. But the headfirst slide can be and is being strongly discouraged

9:53

Rick: Hey Jeff. Since doubtful Dodgers will sign Machado, what does your crystal ball say for next year and beyond? Any favorites like Phillies or Cubs, or think he jumps back to AL with Yankees? Thanks and have a great weekend.

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: Strongly believe it’ll be the Phillies

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like I have in-depth intel to fall back on, but that’s the sense I’ve gotten from looking at the landscape and from having a few conversations. The Phillies have everything Machado could want, and vice versa

9:55

Matt: If you’re the Cardinals, what do you do with Jose Martinez? Play him at 1B, Carpenter at 3B and live with terrible infield defense? Play him in the outfield, where he’s even worse, and sit Fowler/Bader? Trade him to an AL team where he can, and should, DH (maybe to the Mariners for a Kyle Lewis + package)?

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: Just saw a report pre-chat that the Cardinals acknowledged they’ll probably need to trade Martinez at some point to the AL

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: Now, his first-base numbers aren’t so dreadful that he’s unplayable. Granted, I haven’t watched him as often as, say, the Cardinals have, so their impression deserves more weight. They seem to think he sucks. I can see him as a 1B/DH splitting time with another similar player

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners would make for one obvious destination down the road if they don’t re-sign Nelson Cruz. Could also see the Rays going there

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: Although that might require a lot more Jake Bauers in the outfield

9:59

Lilith: Does Raisel Iglesias have similar value to Brad Hand? Can the Reds expect a top 25 or so prospect in return for his services?

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: Hand gets more strikeouts than Iglesias does, but Iglesias would have a lot of trade value, yes. Not enough to get a top-25 prospect, but maybe a 26-50 prospect. Definitely a 51-75 prospect

10:00

Jeff Sullivan: As the Hand trade goes, remember that Cimber is also valuable, and Mejia has seen his stock drop

10:00

ChiSox2020: Who are the top bullpen options you think are being auctioned off now?

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: Britton is the biggest name, although I think there’s a decent chance he’s still kind of broken

10:01

Jeff Sullivan: Outside chance Felipe Vazquez becomes available

10:02

Jeff Sullivan: Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen, Keone Kela, Joakim Soria, Jeurys Familia, Seung Hwan Oh…

10:03

greg: Matt Harvey has been ok, but is there really any team that would have use for him?  Are there any teams who view their race as tight enough to need to go out of there way to upgrade the 5th spot in their rotation through this particular trade?

10:03

Jeff Sullivan: The A’s are one team that could use that kind of short-term upgrade, but that doesn’t mean they’d think it would be worth it, if they perceive Harvey as a disruption

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers’ rotation is pretty dang thin

10:04

Lilith: What could the Reds realistically expect in return for Harvey?

10:04

Jeff Sullivan: A pitcher in High-A who touches 99 but issues a few too many walks

10:07

Scotty Kingery: Tell me I’m going to be ok??

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny — Kingery had an almost identical stretch when he was first promoted to Double-A

10:07

Jeff Sullivan: Looked a lot better the second time around, then, of course, he was successful the next level up

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: I think there are some legitimate questions about Kingery’s approach. Even in the minors, his walk and strikeout numbers weren’t all that pretty

10:08

Jeff Sullivan: Reminds me some of Dustin Fowler

10:09

Jeff Sullivan: With both these guys, I think they’re definitely going to improve, but their offensive ceilings will likely always be limited by the fact that they just have approaches you can exploit

10:10

Jeff Sullivan: Fowler right now has the higher average exit velocity, but Kingery has, barely, reached the higher peak EV

10:12

Colorado Guy: So some chat, including Ken Rosenthal, around the Rockies sending BRodgers in a package to Mets for one of their aces. Thoughts? I realize the Rockies won’t do it because they’re the Rockies, but would you?

10:12

Jeff Sullivan: I understand the argument, but I still lean toward no, because I think the difference between the Rockies and the Dodgers is greater than, say, Jacob deGrom

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: And Rodgers should be part of the equation as soon as next year

10:13

Jeff Sullivan: At the same time, deGrom is extremely good, so if he were available for Rodgers and not all that much more, then I don’t think it would be a *bad* move for Colorado

10:14

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Re: your conversation with Ben about Nick Markakis, what would happen if a pitcher just decided to slide step, or pause, or do something else that messed with Markakis’ timing? Was Greg Maddux the only guy who could mess with his own timing as a pitcher and still have a solid result?

10:14

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it’s funny how Markakis kind of opened himself up for trickery

10:15

Jeff Sullivan: But generally speaking pitchers don’t know how to suddenly fold in new timing-disruption techniques. Some of them are so talented that it could work, but very few pitchers are Greg Maddux or Johnny Cueto

10:15

Jeff Sullivan: With Felix Hernandez, it took a lot of work to pick up a quick pitch. When you don’t use your familiar delivery, weird things are more likely to happen

10:16

Mac Gwire: Who’s your favorite reliever left to be traded with Hand gone?

10:16

Jeff Sullivan: I want to see what’s out there for Yates, because the numbers are great, but there are so many reasons to kind of side-eye him as an option

10:17

greg: When I read Eric’s report on Yusniel Diaz, I immediately thought of Jesse Winker.  Fair?  Would that be a good outcome?

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: Winker has a much longer track record of drawing walks without striking out, and I think he has superior bat control. Winker is also a dreadful defensive outfielder. So, compared to Diaz, Winker is better in the box, and worse in a corner

10:18

Mountie Votto: The Reds absolutely should trade Scooter Gennett at some point (this or next year), right? There’s so much 2B depth in the system, and they’d be paying him at peak value

10:19

Jeff Sullivan: Gennett should be traded, but it’s probably more of an offseason thing. Not that much in-season demand for a second baseman, and teams still presumably want to see him prove himself for more time anyhow, even if that kind of seems unfair

10:20

Jared: Good morning Jeff! With the A’s having the lowest payroll they have had in awhile, do you see them being active in free agency this offseason? or maybe use that to lock up guys like Chapman/Olson? Thanks

10:20

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the A’s are ever going to be that active in free agency, at least not among the best available players, and I would imagine part of the payroll drop is explained by them being phased out of revenue sharing

10:21

Jeff Sullivan: They will spend more than they’re doing right now, and I would imagine they’re foaming at the mouth to try to get Chapman locked up forever

10:22

Scott: Phillies, Braves, Nats. Who wins the NL East?

10:22

Jeff Sullivan: Now that Machado is officially not entering the picture, I’ll say Braves by a couple games

10:24

mmddyyyy: Do buyouts count toward the luxury tax?

10:26

Jeff Sullivan: I believe so, yes

10:27

Jeff Sullivan: This is based on a few minutes of research, using Cot’s Contracts

10:28

Jeff Sullivan: Brett Gardner, for example, has a $2-million buyout for 2019. Unless I’m mistaken, that would count against the Yankees for 2019 should they elect to not pick up his option

10:29

Bubba: How often are 3 teams projected to finish with 100+ wins at the ASB?  I feel this is unusually uneven.  Should make for exciting playoffs though!

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Looking over the past decade, this year has three of the top five first-half team winning percentages

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: Last year had the other two!

10:30

Jeff Sullivan: That doesn’t directly answer your question, but it’s close enough

10:31

Dustin: Jeff, I don’t have a question. I just want you to know I enjoy it when you decide to curse a little on Effectively Wild. I just like to imagine Ben getting slightly visibly uncomfortable when it happens.

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: It’s one of the little things that bring me warmth

10:31

Mark: Do you think it was a good trade on the Padres end if Mejia ends up in left field?

10:31

Jeff Sullivan: If that happens, it will not look very good, I don’t think

10:32

Broseph: Any reason for optimism for Jake Junis? He started so well and the BOOM – terrible.

10:32

Jeff Sullivan: His problem is mostly that the home runs spiraled out of control. Then he got injured. I’m not so worried. He’s not an ace, but I still like him enough as a starter

10:34

Mountie Votto: Decent chance the Reds make a Mat Latos-style trade for a controllable starter this offseason? Any groundball-heavy guys that would be especially valuable at GABP?

10:34

Jeff Sullivan: Not sure what there is for them to do in this regard, assuming they don’t find a way to end up with Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: They still have so many of their own young pitchers to try to sort out

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: They also need to learn how to, you know, develop them

10:35

Sandy Eggo: Could Mejia and Austin Hedges give the Padres one of the best catching duos in MLB?

10:35

Jeff Sullivan: They could, but they probably won’t

10:36

PTBNL: I know there will be a lot of questions like this one in the chat,  but curious to get your take. The returns for Hand and Machado were

A) Light
B) Reasonable
C) Overpays

10:36

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Indians underpaid, and I think the Dodgers overpaid

10:37

Lou: How is defense taken into account for WAR for historical players?

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: Worse…ly?

10:37

tb.25: How to fix cubs pitching?

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: Make Willson Contreras a better catcher

10:37

Jeff Sullivan: And go find a starter so you can try Tyler Chatwood in shorter stints in the bullpen

10:38

Sandy Eggo: What role do you foresee Hand and Cimber playing in the Indians pen?

10:38

Jeff Sullivan: General high leverage. Allen and Miller can’t handle everything, so Hand and Cimber will handle the rest

10:38

Ketel Marte: Are you amped that I’m making good on your breakout prediction now? Will I continue this rest of season?

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: While I like the recent progress, at the end of the day, Marte’s wRC+ has gone from 89 last year to 92 this year. That doesn’t make me look very good

10:39

SteveTheMotivator: Hey Jeff, the Mariners would likely benefit from adding a starting pitcher. But they would likely benefit from adding relievers as well. Would bullpen-days be a potential sollution to getting their current staff rest? Should Amir Garrett and Javy Guerra be on their radar? Thanks

10:39

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know why the Reds would give Garrett up right now

10:40

Jeff Sullivan: And, wait, Javy Guerra?

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: 0.9 career WAR, 32 year old Javy Guerra?

10:41

Jeff Sullivan: I see that Guerra strung together some impressive games this season in Triple-A, but it doesn’t appear like his repertoire has changed

10:42

Gavin: Could you see a scenario where the Pirates decide to move Marte or Polanco at the deadline?

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: I assume that’s more of an offseason thing. Hardly strong demand at the deadline for non-elite outfielders

10:42

Jeff Sullivan: Not like Meadows has been pounding on the door, either

10:43

Andrew: Would you give up two of Almora, Happ, or Russell for DeGrom? Is this a case where it’s a perfectly reasonable ask from the Mets but a little too rich for the Cubs?

10:43

Jeff Sullivan: Just as a general rule, I hate subtracting from active rosters to add to active rosters

10:44

Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs, in this example, would be getting better but also getting worse, which somewhat defeats the purpose of the exchange

10:44

brood550: If the season were to end today, what kind of contract would you expect Harper to get?

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: I honestly wouldn’t be shocked to see Boras try to get him back on the market next winter

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s a one-year deal, or maybe it’s more like a three-year deal with an opt-out or two

10:45

Jeff Sullivan: With a player like this, Boras probably feels like the timing could be a lot better

10:46

Guest: What is a decent return for Zach Britton?

10:47

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t trust him that much anymore. He’ll get moved, and I think he’ll get a real prospect, but not a *special* prospect. There’s more name value than real value right now

10:47

Kolbe: So I feel like I can fix the three true outcome “problem” in two easy steps. Move back the mound 18 inches and move back the fences about 20 feet. k% goes down and guys like Joey gallo don’t exist because putting the ball in play becomes so much more valuable with the rise in babip from more playing surface.

10:48

Jeff Sullivan: You could probably get away with just doing the first one

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: You’d also arguably be creating *more* Joey Gallos, because his own strikeout rate would drop with the mound move, and with the fences pushed back, suddenly Gallo is one of a smaller crop of players that can consistently hit the ball out

10:49

Jeff Sullivan: I do think baseball could benefit from moving the mound back. Based on precedent, though, it’s probably more likely they’d just trim the mound’s height, at least first

10:50

J: If you were a team in need of a Corner OF bat would you rather try and trade for the cheaper, more team control, older, less track record of Jose Martinez or the more expensive, less team control, but younger and more track record Nicholas Castellanos?

10:50

Jeff Sullivan: All things being equal, I’d take Castellanos, but I don’t know what the Cardinals would settle for to move Martinez. Castellanos would be moderately expensive

10:51

Johnny5: Pick one for the rest of their career – Devers or Andujar?

10:51

Jeff Sullivan: Andujar, slightly

10:52

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Can the Mariners really continue to play .600 (or even .550-.575) baseball with a 0 run differential. That 26-12 record in 1-run games has to catch up with them at some point, right

10:52

Jeff Sullivan: You could argue it’s already catching up. Their WC lead is beginning to vanish

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: But I would call your attention to the 2016 Rangers. First half: .600 winning percentage, +16 run differential. Second half: .569 winning percentage, -8 run differential

10:53

Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes the pixie dust sticks around

10:56

Erik: If someone was, say, an above-average but not incredible starting pitcher, but they had a demonstrated ability to throw the full nine innings without a drop in performance, would any team give them a chance to be an old-fashioned workhorse? Would that allow them to save the bullpen and perhaps carry one fewer pitcher? Or would they just cut that guy off after 5 or 6 innings like they do with everyone else?

10:56

Jeff Sullivan: It would take a while before the pitcher developed a rubber-arm reputation

10:57

Jeff Sullivan: In the minors and as a young big-leaguer, the guy would be treated like the others. Then, eventually, someone would realize, hey, it’s Mike Leake! We can probably squeeze out an extra inning or two every so often

10:58

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think it would get taken very much further. I doubt the guy would constantly be finishing games. You might see the team carry one fewer reliever, but even that is debatable

11:00

Raider: Yankees deal frazier and a low a pitcher for raisel and matt Harvey? who says no

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Reds could probably deal Iglesias for someone good but less polarizing

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s so far off, though

11:00

Jkim: How will the Dodgers work with that crowded outfield?
Will they try to package someone like Toles + forsythe for a guy like Oh?

11:00

Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be surprised to see an outfielder traded

11:01

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think it would be Toles. Could be Pederson

11:01

54: Preller says they are gonna eval Mejia for two weeks at AAA but they believe he’s just about ready to catch in the show. Padres blogosphere think Hedges could get moved… but is there really a market for him?

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: There are teams that would like Hedges’ defense and occasional power. The market is not…very active

11:02

David: Vogelbach, Call up or trade?

11:02

Jeff Sullivan: I’d rather have him than Healy

11:03

mmddyyyy: How many of your articles would someone have to read to get a really good idea of who you are as a person?

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: About 25 now, and about ten when I was younger

11:03

Bo: Seems Atlanta is interested in Zach Britton… I’d rather have Brach. What would either of them cost Atlanta? Would a top-100 prospect be necessary?

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: Shouldn’t be, and if that’s the demand, I’d look somewhere else

11:04

Lonestar: Who is your favorite obscure relief pitcher at the moment?

11:04

Jeff Sullivan: Ryan Pressly

11:05

Jeff Sullivan: 34% strikeouts. Previous career high: 24% strikeouts! His contact rate has plummeted. Interesting breaking ball

11:05

Hague: Are the A’s as likely to be buyers as mild sellers? They have a good shot at a WC2, but it seems unlikely with their payroll/glut of pre-arb talent that buying a rental for a shot at a play-in game best fits their title chances vs. a young ~powerhouse in a year or two.

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll make little additive tweaks. They’re not going to sell anything unless they drop super fast

11:06

mmddyyyy: Which of your activities / achievements give you the most credibility in the baseball media world?

11:06

Jeff Sullivan: Writing for FanGraphs for as long as I have

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: Part of it is just being here in the first place, but a bigger part is being here and staying here. I can’t be avoided! One way or another, people will eventually find out who I am, even if they don’t want to

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:07

Jeff Sullivan: And I’m actually out of town next Friday, so we’ll see if I switch chat days. You’ll…find out on the front page at some point

11:08

Jeff Sullivan: Regardless, thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again eventually, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/20/18 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Llewdor
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Llewdor

There’s an article on FiveThirtyEight today about Khris Davis’s batting average. It’s an interesting piece, but all the way through all I could think was “I wish Jeff Sullivan had written this.”