Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/1/16

July 1, 2016

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s Friday baseball chat

9:09	james: Jeff,

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Good start

9:09	Houzer : If the Tigers become sellers- do you think there is a match with the Mariners for VMArt?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I have difficulty accepting the premise. The Tigers are better than the Mariners are! And, of course, it’s hard to picture the Tigers selling again.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: So it’s troubling for me to even try to entertain the hypothetical

9:11	Roman: What do you think Votto’s slash line looks like come season’s end?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Something like .265/.390/.475

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Great in June, all right in May, awful in April. In April, he didn’t have his swing going, but it’s all better now

9:12	Houzer : Do you think Nola is just suffering from a small mechanical issue, rather than fatigue? And how many more innings do you think the Phillis let him throw? I’m assuming they’ll want to build him to 200 next year?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Nola started 31 games a season ago. He’s not far from being built up to the 200 level. I have to assume this is just a little rough patch, and nothing more sinister. Maybe a hint of fatigue but not of the season-threatening variety

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: It is worth noting that, through June 5, Nola had opponents swinging at 35% of balls out of the zone. Since June 11, that’s dropped to 25%. The curve has been less effective, and then that exposes the fastball, which isn’t great. There was always some concern over Nola’s “true” level of deception

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: But he’s a lot better than this. For me, today, he’s a legitimate No. 2 starter

9:15	Dae-Ho Lee: Felix has started throwing on the side, and appears on his way back. What needs to happen with the King from here out to get him in Cooperstown? Would you bet on that happening?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, he’s most of the way there, but he could use a graceful and gradual decline. Maybe a signature start in the playoffs or something, as well. He’s 30 — if he’s around and functioning when he’s 35, then by that point he’ll probably have had a Hall-of-Fame career

9:17

j6takish: Jeff, I am on team “Make baseball fun again”. The giants won and he got a double so it matters less, but letting Madbum hit last night was pretty stupid. The giants best player is a catcher and NL teams don’t get many chances to rest guys without taking them out of the lineup and bochy punted the opportunity to get a guy with a 71 wRC+ into the game

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: The Giants’ bench is pretty awful right now. And teams are generally reluctant to have both their available catchers in a game at once. While I figure there was probably a better hitter than Bumgarner available, the difference would’ve been very slight — essentially negligible — and this way they got to make a little noise

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it was stupid. Maybe slightly suboptimal, but not enough to matter

9:20	JD: With the MArlins offense clicking, how do you see playing time working out upon the return of Dee Gordon?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately for Dietrich, this is an unwinnable situation. Gordon will very obviously slide back in when he can. And then Dietrich will make spot starts, and pinch-hits, and he might take some games against righties from Prado

9:21	The Decadent Moose: We’re about to start NHL free agency and the Red Sox got whacked for international signings. Is this the best morning ever?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The best morning ever probably didn’t begin with a cell-phone alarm going off

9:22	Dae-Ho Lee: Seattle Mariners run the table between now and the All-Star game, and the Rangers slip. What is the one move they make before the deadline to push all in?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: So to be clear, you have the Mariners winning their next 10 games in a row?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what the all-in move would be. They could use help in the bullpen and in left field. They don’t have a lot to trade. The market is lousy.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if they have what it could take to talk to the Braves about Vizcaino and Inciarte

9:25	Erik: Isn’t the Yankees being sellers talk all a bit overblown? They’re only three out of the second wild card and have the budget to buy to make up the difference.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Yes!

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not usual to see the Yankees in this situation, and they clearly have the sorts of pieces they could move for a haul. But the Yankees don’t shed. The bullpen is their strength. I figure they’re going to ride it. Maybe even add to it

9:28	Dae-Ho Lee: Is there legitimate reason to believe Cal Ripken was as other-worldly on defense as his Fangraphs numbers show? His numbers are better than Omar Viquel’s, and going off memory of watching them both that seems bonkers to me.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: If you think defensive metrics are unreliable now, they’re even less reliable before the UZR era. Then you get into the days of Total Zone, and according to Total Zone Ripken had more than a few years of being 15-20 runs better than the average shortstop

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: The same would be said of Ozzie Smith

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t matter-of-factly declare that the numbers are wrong. Maybe the rest of us are wrong! And I bet Ripken, as a shortstop, was underrated. Kind of like Jhonny Peralta. But I believe we’re seeing some inflation

9:31	Mike_C: Given how he started the year, the Braves front office has to be somewhat please for getting any kind of a return for Bud Norris, right?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: For sure. And I wonder if we should be giving credit to Roger McDowell. I don’t know who taught Bud Norris that cutter, but it’s made a meaningful difference for him

9:33	CJC: Any explanation for Peter Bourjos’s recent hot streak. Does this give him any trade value?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Bourjos has a history of showing little flashes and he has had a couple years of being an average overall bat. The timing here is good — the Phillies could try to sell him as an ideal fourth outfielder. When teams think of Bourjos, they still think of his incredible defense, even as he’s gotten older

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing great coming back in return for this, but Bourjos is moveable

9:36	K-Man: Hey Jeff, what do you think about Max Kepler so far?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Promising!

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: In June, 196 hitters had at least 50 batted balls tracked by Statcast

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Kepler was 15th in average exit velocity, at 93.3mph. Tied with David Ortiz. Hair in front of Corey Seager

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Problem: so far, Kepler has hit grounders a little harder than non-grounders. Those are mostly wasted. But the strength is legitimate

9:39	Mike: Happy Canada day! Is there a stat or chart that best shows a pitchers control of each individual pitch they throw?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: There’s not really any one good presentation. My proxy: look at a pitcher’s overall control, and then look at how often he throws his various pitches. Any pitch with a low frequency tends to be un-trusted

9:40	Dae-Ho Lee: Any chance David Ortiz pulls a flip-a-roo and signs up for another season? What a year to go out on.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’d put the chances at like 2%

9:41	John: What do you think Ian Desmond gets in Free Agency? He has to be top 5 players available now right?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Because he’s in his 30s, I think you’ll see a limited term, but it’s been such a wonderful year for him I could see him getting something like the Alex Gordon contract

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Gordon hit free agency as the more reliable player, but he was also older, and he took a discount

9:43	JTT: How did the legend of “Ichiro could hit home runs he just doesn’t feel like it” get started. Can’t basically every MLB caliber player rip homers during BP?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure how it actually started but I do assume it had to do with his consistent shows in BP. And, yeah, most hitters can go deep regularly in BP, but Ichiro made a habit of it. He’d hit almost every pitch out sometimes, and he said in some interviews that he could be a power hitter if he were willing to suffer through a reduced average

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: If you watch some old Ichiro clips, there’s definitely a power swing, along with the slap swing. But I do figure the power-swing capability wound up exaggerated, mostly because we never saw it consistently deployed

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Because nothing was ever proven wrong, we’re allowed to live with our fantasies

9:45	Erik: Jeremy Hellickson is having a career year, at least according to xFIP (3.84) and is on pace for about 2 WAR. In a thin starter market, what might he be worth?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Probably around whatever Bud Norris just got

9:46	K-Man: What is going on with the FanGraphs App? It is utterly useless 🙁 I bought it in the hope that I could access all your stats pages and the articles quickly, but it only shows career #s and the tables are not extensive or sortable. Is there an update or a new App coming anytime soon?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anyone has worked on the app in a couple of years

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: As far as I know there are zero plans to change that

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry!

9:47	JD: Why do teams that are out of it wait so long to sell? Ex. A’s. Since they knew they were not going to contend players they will be trading (Rich Hill, Doolittlte) have been hurt. How much bigger payoff can they get by waiting?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: There’s not much of an incentive to sell early since prices remain elevated through the deadline. And nobody *wants* to sell and it sends a bad message to the fans and the players. The Indians have won, what, 13 games in a row? Everyone thinks they can go on a hot streak. Everyone *can* go on a hot streak. And then one hot streak changes the whole complexion of the standings

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Going with your example, the A’s can wait this out a bit longer. They’re 35-44. They have 20 games between now and July 24. If they win…14 of those, they’re just about .500, and being just about .500 opens up the wild-card possibility. And the A’s can probably only get healthier

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Think of it kind of like pitchers and Tommy John surgery. From the outside, we hear about a damaged UCL and we think “just have the surgery already.” You know what sucks? Going through surgery! Pitchers want to do anything else.

9:50	Dae-Ho Lee: Any plans on hiking The Greater Yellowstone or Glacier soon?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Next summer. This summer is dedicated to OR/WA/ID

9:51	JD: Who is the best player dealt at the deadline?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Thinking Sonny Gray or Rich Hill?

9:51	gcarter: Could the strategy of having pitchers play the field be used more often? It seems like it could be used more often in the last few innings with relief pitchers.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I’ve long been amazed we haven’t seen that sort of thing done more

9:52	mtsw: Fangraphs now has the Orioles as favorites for the AL East. Do you agree with this projection? Even with the banked games, hard to see how they stay on top with that pitching staff.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Even though I’m literally looking right at the numbers my gut tells me the Blue Jays take this, in the end

9:54	gee: More likey to produce this season: Bregman, Margot, Benintendi?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: A few weeks ago I would’ve said Bregman, but now that Valbuena is hitting, and with the Astros working out Gurriel, I’m going to say Benintendi instead

9:55	JD: Will cubs upgrade anything other than bullpen? Seems like they have so much depth even after all the injuries.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs don’t really need any upgrades. Of course they’ll search, and they could improve the relief, but they’re the least desperate of anyone

9:57	NatsFan: Got any thoughts on Gio Gonzalez? He’s becoming more of a TTO pitcher, with a K/9 rate over 9, a BB/9 rate over 3, and an HR/FB rate that more than doubled from last year. Anything going on here that won’t be fixed by regression?

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: The home-run problems were really just in May, and then there was one game where he allowed three of them. Hasn’t allowed multiple homers in any other start. He seems mostly normal to me, and with each passing start he’s re-gaining some velocity. It’s worth noting that, on average, he’s still down almost 2 ticks from last season, and that’s meaningful — you’d assume, based on that, he’s a worse pitcher. But I still like him fine

9:59	Dock Ellis: I had a dream that Joe Morgan (yes that Joe Morgan) was in a park and he picked up a ball, threw it in the air and hit it with a bat. The ball proceeded to hit me in my groin. What the hell does that mean?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: You’re in love with your mother