Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/15/14

July 15, 2014

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello there, friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello there, friends of friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s chat baseball. I chat at a slower rate than Dave does for a variety of reasons. Don’t ask me fantasy baseball questions because I don’t know how to answer them. You know, the usual stuff

9:05	Comment From Peter B Thoughts on Aiken and the Astros?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: From the outsider perspective, it’s easy to say, oh, they’re just trying to make the numbers work, and they found something of a medical facilitation. But while I don’t know the severity of what Aiken might be dealing with, it sure seems like he isn’t really hurt, so I understand why people are upset

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I think it was Olney who was talking about what Aiken might get paid as a free agent. Which is interesting, but also unhelpful since all high draft picks would get bank as free agents

9:08	Comment From Jack Will Vogt be in batting order almost 100% of the time against RHP? Will he have a .340+ OBP ROS?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: When I watch Stephen Vogt hit I’m reminded of watching John Jaso hit

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Credit to the A’s for having two of them. Vogt is benefiting right now from some injury situations on the roster, but absolutely, he’s going to keep playing a lot as long as he keeps hitting a lot, and he’s a real on-base threat. He’s going to do well in a platoon role

9:09	Comment From jocephus so maddux is basically todd packer – http://totalfratmove.com/ac…

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I think this has been bandied about for a while

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Greg Maddux is kind of disgusting. I’ve heard Brian Giles was also pretty disgusting in his own way

9:10	Comment From zurzles the mets should still be sellers despite their recent success, but will they be?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’ll sell bits. They don’t want to go overboard because 2015 could be successful, but there are players they can move without shooting their own future in the foot

9:11	Comment From Vliet What’s wrong with Anibal Sanchez?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: After completing a few minutes of research, I think he’s less broken than his numbers might indicate, but he hasn’t quite had his swing-and-miss changeup or slider and his contact rate is up ten percentage points. Most of what you want to be there is still there, but without the results I’d say it’s worth worrying a bit about his slipping strikeout rate

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see evidence of injury, but then injuries don’t always conveniently reveal themselves in the data we can look at

9:15	Comment From atoms Do the A’s have another trade in them to address the 2nd base hole, or are they done?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not done trying, but anything they do at 2B won’t be much of a splash

9:16	Comment From Francis Has any team had more rotation health than the Nationals since the beginning of 2013? Unless I’m missing something, they lost a month of Haren last year and a month of Gonzalez this year, and have otherwise avoided any multistart injuries.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Doug Fister missed time this year

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: The Tigers have been extremely healthy, at least in terms of making their starts

9:18	Comment From Guest Jayson Werth has been worth 4 BsR, which is 12th in MLB. he’s always been an outstanding baserunner, if not the fastest guy, but I feel like that doesn’t get mentioned often with him.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Probably because it’s been worth about 3 wins for him over more than a decade

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: That’s not intended to be dismissive — baserunning is often just such a minor thing, and Werth does so many other things well

9:19	Comment From Eric The lack of baseball on the schedule is forcing me to confront my current unhappiness. This is displeasing and I eagerly await the return of a full slate of games.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Go to the woods!

9:19	Comment From joe did the home run derby ever not suck?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Not in my lifetime, but that’s a personal perspective. Obviously, there are people who love it; it just tends not to be the young(ish) internet

9:19	Comment From Jon Is Ruggiano a fit for the Mariners?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t checked to see if he died this morning, but assuming he’s very much not dead, yeah

9:21	Comment From Bret What are the names of players that the Jays should acquire?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Dr. Health?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: These overlapping injuries aren’t helping matters one bit, and it’s clouding the picture of how they ought to proceed. They can be a player for Hamels, and there aren’t markedly bigger upgrades out there than him

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: They also seem like one of those teams who could use a guy like Luis Valbuena, assuming they dont’ end up with Ben Zobrist

9:24	Comment From Jesus Hey Jeff, do u think the BoSox should give up on ’14, trade whatever they can and play the youth?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I think they should trade the short-term veterans and give it another go in 2015. Hell, they could conceivably keep trying for 2014 even after selling off a few older players since it’s not like they’re making huge awesome contributions

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: The Red Sox are down but they’re positioned well to bounce back in a hurry

9:25	Comment From Rated Rookie Do you think Danny Salazar starts for Columbus on Thursday or Cleveland on Saturday? Expect lots of Ks, lots of BBs?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: McAllister is coming up

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: But Salazar shouldn’t be too far behind, and Indians people think he’s gotten over most of his issues that were plaguing him earlier on

9:27	Comment From daniel What return can the Mets expect to get for Bartolo Colon (who has 1.5 years remaining)?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Something highlighted by a second-tier prospect. The market has demonstrated that it’s fairly skeptical of Colon, but there are so many teams looking for a starting pitcher and with lower guys like Hammel and McCarthy gone…

9:29	Comment From Travis Will Jorge Soler be brought up this September to get extra ABs?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, but let’s see if he keeps slugging .900 in Double-A

9:30	Comment From Joe How would you handle the Andrus, Profar, Odor, Saldinas conundrum?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Sardinas doesn’t really complicate things yet — he has to perform at a high level first. Odor hasn’t even proven *that* much and Profar is very much still a mystery so this could be a lot more involved than it actually is. If I were Texas I’d let it be known I’m willing to move Andrus in the winter, and maybe that gets some bites. Otherwise I’d assume three of the four players could conceivably return to the minors, and I wouldn’t be married to holding on to any individual one

9:32	Comment From Big Willie Style Who would win in a HR Derby: Cesepedes or Gallo?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Gallo would probably win against Derby pitchers, Cespedes would easily win against good pitchers

9:33	Comment From Sirras One Do you think that Stanton could hit a homer out of the park (not just a homer, literally out of the stadium) given home run derby-style pitching and a clear night (last night was raining)?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Which park are we talking about? Are we talking about Target?

9:34	Comment From Rated Rookie What is Mookie Betts’s path to regular playing time in Boston?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Bradley getting demoted

9:35	Comment From Evan Longoria After averaging 30 HR over the last 5 years, I’ve had a baby, gotten engaged to a playmate and lost all of my power. Is my fiance a succubus draining my life force from me, or is there something mechanically wrong?!

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Someone suggested a little while back that Longoria was finally turning things around, but he hasn’t done crap in July so while you still bet on the established superstar, this isn’t resolved just yet

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say this though:

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: When I wrote that article, Longoria had homered on just one inside pitch. He’s since homered against three more, so maybe he really is beginning to normalize

9:40	Comment From Guest Having a hard time figuring out how the Nats upgrade their team at the trade deadline, any ideas?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Role players? The healthy Nationals are basically set

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/co…

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: We have them projected to have the best record in baseball between now and the end of the season

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Some of that is schedule, but a lot of that is the appearance of great talent

9:41	Comment From Orsulakfan Is Chris Davis broken? How do you see his 2nd half? The Orioles will need production from somewhere to offset a likely regression from Cruz.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Well, the easiest way to put this: Chris Davis is below career averages. Nelson Cruz is above career averages. Just as one would expect Cruz to get worse, one would expect Davis to get better

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: So there’s your offset. I’ve looked into Davis a few times before and I haven’t found anything dramatic — I figure this is just an over-correction, and he should be productive for the duration from now on

9:43	Comment From Maddie Y. Ventura out of the bullpen. What’s that all about?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Just getting him some action before the All-Star Break

9:44	Comment From Up the middle What do the Yankees do at 2B and SS next year?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Suck

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: More realistically, they could give a shot to Rob Refsnyder. They could also end up in the mix for, say, J.J. Hardy, or a younger sort like Nick Franklin

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Or, let’s say the Rangers really want out from under Elvis Andrus! There could be a match. The Yankees will have options; the Yankees always have options

9:45	Comment From Big Willie Style How do you project Joey Gallo as a Major League hitter? Do you think the K% ever dips below 20%? Does he stick @ 3B long term or does he shift to 1B or DH?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Below 20%? No, that’s never getting below 20%. I’m not sure it’s ever getting below 30%

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: He’s struck out 42% of the time so far in Double-A. With, of course, extreme and obscene power, so it’s not like Gallo has struggled in between the strikeouts, but can we just call him Chris Davis turned up to 11?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a difficult thing to find a comp for him because there haven’t really been players like him, but Davis is too obvious to leave out of the conversation

9:47	Comment From Pat Here’s an obvious one. Who are your favorite ROS targets?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw

9:48	Comment From Evan Longoria The Rays let Stephen Vogt and John Jaso both walk.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Vogt got away as a 27-year-old mediocre catcher/outfielder who didn’t exactly clobber the ball in the high minors

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: It looks bad now, and it’s still weird they let Jaso go for so little, but it’s not like these guys were obvious bets to turn into such helpful players

9:48	Comment From Guest How do you see the Cubs lineup shaking out, assuming all of their prospects make it to the big league team in the next 1-2 years. It would seem that somebody will be traded.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: There are so many ways for them to move around the field that I think there’s space for just about everybody. And — thankfully! — not everybody will actually be a good big-league ballplayer. No urgency there, in my mind

9:49	Comment From Hrkac Circus Do they A’s have pieces to get a decent MI, or is this the team they’re trying to win with this year? (obviously it’s been working so far)

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: They could still swing a deal for a middle infielder, because they’re not literally out of long-term assets, but if this is the team they go forward with, well, this is probably the best team in baseball, soooo…

9:50	Comment From Jake talent, how do you let Vogt & Jaso leave? Is a Ryan Hanigan/Jose Molina tandem really that much of a defensive upgrade?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: In the Rays’ minds, obviously, yeah. Remember that Jaso was coming off a lousy year too and no one believes he’s much of a defensive backstop

9:51	Comment From Matthew Is swinging to protect a runner “wasting a strike” in the same vein that bunting is “wasting an out?” Has the swing been shown to actually increase stolen base success rates?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Not to my knowledge, but I don’t know that we have the sample size to properly investigate this

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Especially since we’d be comparing them against regular stolen-base attempts, and there’s a difference between an SB attempt and an SB attempt during which the hitter thinks about swinging. There’s so much going on!

9:53	Comment From Kevin Why shouldn’t the Cubs just ditch Barney and go with Alcantara at second?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: They very well might do that soon

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Barney’s one of those interesting trade options, but he’s got a career wRC+ of 66. Feels Brendan Ryan-y

9:55	Comment From Guest The Jays are in a tough spot. Are Sanchez, Pompey and Norris that good that the Jays shouldn’t consider moving them for something awesome (e.g. Price).

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: I think they are very much considering that, for a guy like Price or for a guy like Hamels. But the Jays are also interested in building more of a sustainable winner and they might not feel right about shrinking their own window. Their preference seems to be spreading things around more with two or three second-tier moves. Me, I’ve noted before that I don’t get too committed to prospects like Sanchez, but the Jays see something different

9:57

Comment From Brad Pennys Grand Slam
If the NL and AL All-Star Teams replaced the Blue Jays and the Os in the AL east and played 162 game schedule (assume we can clone players so there are duplicates on the teams i.e. Kershaw Pitches for both the NL all-stars and the Dodgers)how would each team do? could they win 140 games? which Team would have the better season?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know which team would be better, but absolutely not, they wouldn’t come close to 140 wins, in part because they’d also have to play against each other

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: They’d play each other 19 times. Call that more or less a split and you’re already starting with nine or ten losses

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I could maybe see win totals between 110 – 120

9:59	Comment From Jon Daniels Who should I trade before the deadline?