Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/29/16

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:05
Bork: Hello, friend!

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:05
Section 118: Why have I not heard any chatter at all re: Oakland shipping people off?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hill has been hurt, Gray has been mediocre, Reddick is part of a saturated outfield market, and Valencia is basically on the level of Steve Pearce

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: oh, and Madson has been struggling

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: people will move over the coming days, almost certainly, but I get it

9:07
Trevor: Predict the biggest move at the deadline

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: go big or go home, right? let’s put Chris Sale on the Rangers

9:08
Jeb: Reports are Melancon could be on the move. What could he net in a return for the Pirates?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: one prospect from the middle of the top 100, probably, and one or two interesting filler pieces

9:09
JoshP: Jeff, how do Terry Collins and Kevin Long still have jobs? Do you think they keep said jobs through the end of the season?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Probably has a lot to do with having gone to the World Series

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: This Mets season feels so freaking similar to last Mets season

9:10
Barnard: I’d like to present Myles Straw, owner of the weirdest spray chart I’ve ever seen for a RH hitter:

http://www.mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=664702&position=RF&split=&year=2016&txtStartDate=&txtEndDate=#spray

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: What in the actual hell

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I gotta think that’s in large part some kind of data error. I desperately hope it is not

9:11
Bork: If Josh Naylor’s name seems familiar and you don’t know why, he was the Marlins prospect who ‘accidentally’ put another Marlins prospect on the DL with a knife ‘prank’

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Probably learned it from Loria

9:12
Phantom of the Chakras: Hi Jeff. Wondering what I should be rooting for the O’s to do at the deadline, other than start scoring runs again. It’s always nice having something to long for beyond fame and fortune.

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Their situation is a weird one. Similar in a way to the Marlins, who probably just overpaid for Cashner, and the O’s shouldn’t overpay for a similar arm. I wonder if there’s a way for them to be the team that lands Rich Hill? His stock is down so maybe that makes him more acquirable. He’d feel like the right kind of gamble

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Of course, the A’s would still need more in return than they’d get from a QO draft pick, but the Orioles could meet that

9:13
PL: Please light a fire under this stove Jeff

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: It’s too hot out for a stove

9:13
Jeb: Do you think the Pirates should trade McCutchen? What type of package could he bring back?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a midseason trade candidate. Not to me. Let him try to rebound down the stretch, and reconsider in December

9:15
Nate: With the Giants acquiring Nunez, does this make Kelby Tomlinson expendable?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Kelby Tomlinson has always been expendable

9:15
j6takish: Jeff, is trading for Eduardo Nunez is seriously the most “Giants” move possible? Excuse me, World Series MVP Eduardo Nunez. Also I have heard you, Eno and dave make allusions to Cistulli having a stalker…or at least somebody who updates his Wikipedia page for him, can you explain?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to define but there definitely is a tier of players who seem Giants-appropriate. Guys like Nunez, Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay or something. I don’t know how well this matches reality. In the Giants’ defense, their position-player group is excellent when healthy so they don’t need a ton

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: And I don’t know anything more about the stalker except that I believe the stalker is French?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Carson didn’t make that Wiki page himself

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: probably

9:18
Nate: Why would the Royals want to package Kennedy with Wade Davis? They could get the world for Davis, but Kennedy almost negates the value.

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: One way or another, the Royals are in possession of Kennedy’s negative value. So the either keep that and exchange Davis, or they package them both, but the result would be similar. It’s just a difference between already having negative value and accepting a form of negative value, and those would be equivalent

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: That’s not a great way of putting that but hopefully the point gets across. Remember that the Braves reduced their own take for Kimbrel by including Upton

9:20
Travis: Are the Braves seriously gonna hold on to Teheran?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Looks that way. Bizarre

9:21
SDinSEA: Happy Friday Jeff! Can you talk about how Austin Hedges’ projections have changed from end of last year to this year? Are we talking a 50 bat and/or 50 power potential?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: To take this very literally, before the year Hedges was projected for a .257 wOBA. Now he’s projected for a .280 wOBA

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: But he’s clearly doing a better job of tapping into his power. The power has never been in question, in raw form — just a matter of his consistently getting the barrel where he wants. He’s doing that, and he’s made himself look like a potential regular

9:23
Michael: Is the Chapman deal going to be the biggest deal of the deadline?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say no

9:24
Rob: Have you ever seen a team with as much sequencing luck as the Rangers?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Not very many. They’ve cooled off of late, but their timing has been fantastic.

9:25
Ronnie: How would you grade prime Ichiro’s tools? 80/40/80/80/80?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Well I’m definitely not a scout, but…80 hit, 35 power, 80 running, 70 arm, 60 fielding

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: That was stupid. 70 fielding

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not *quite* convinced he was a true 80 out there. Didn’t spend enough time in center

9:27
MikeMilligan: Better to move Urias + for Sale, DeLeon + for Archer or neither ?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think either is necessary. That being said, I try not to fall in love with too many pitching prospects, so depending on what else it would take, I wouldn’t be opposed to Urias going for Sale. Sale is great *now*. Urias might be a 200-innings type in a few years

9:29
Nick: The pirates seem like a good fit for a Chris Sale trade considering his affordable contract and their prospect pool. Would Meadows, Bell and Glasnow be a reasonable framework for the deal? Maybe a guy like Zach Duke and few lower rated prospects involved as well? Tell me if I’m far off because I really don’t know if this is fair. Thank you

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Just in general, while the Pirates could financially afford Sale, I don’t think they could afford concentrating so much of their farm talent into one major leaguer. They need that constant churn, that stream of reinforcements. I feel like that should be their priority

9:31
mtsw: Where’s America’s Greatest Hitter Steve Pearce end up?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Good fit for the Indians

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Good fit for lots of teams, but good fit for the Indians

9:32
SDinSEA: Have you ever seen or heard of a true 80/80/80/80/80 player? Ever scouted anyone with that type of potential?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Prime Bonds or prime Alex Rodriguez would get you in the vicinity, but I’m sure that level has never been reached.

9:33
crystal pepsi: are you going to partake when i return?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t drink soda

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: unless it’s in a cocktail

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I do drink cocktails

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: does anybody else want a cocktail

9:33
ArtVandalay: The Cubs are done trading right? With Soler and Cahill coming back at some point (and I guess Coghlan too, though I don’t understand his presence whatsoever) they seem to be set. Why pay a high price for a guy like Walker or Archer now when you can get him in the offseason?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs definitely don’t need to do anything else. They do still have the resources to acquire a cost-controlled effective starter, and if they want, it wouldn’t hurt. Gotta brace for the eventual departure of Arrieta, if it comes to that. And the current rotation could be better, even if it’s already amazing. But the Cubs should have less urgency than anyone at this writing

9:36
JP: Say you were given control of the Rockies right now. What year do you expect to contend, and what’s your strategy to get there?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: If I squint I could see them in the hunt next season. They really are starting to see the fruits of their pitching development. I really want them to have a better catcher — if only Wolters could hit at all. I’d be trading Gonzalez, because I don’t love him, and I’d market him as this year’s Yoenis Cespedes. I wonder if the Dodgers might be open to taking Gonzalez and giving up Austin Barnes

9:38
Sean: Yasmany Tomas has a 162 wRC+ on the road and a 42+ wRC+ at home. Usually splits like this have little value but it’s pretty easy to see that he’s much more comfortable on the road. What gives?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Gotta figure it’s nothing. He didn’t have that split last year. It’s just crazy, crazy noise. Like a marmot shriek!

9:40
Reginald Denton III: Who’s this Luis Castillo the Padres just got from Miami? Is that son of former leaguer (and former Marlin) Luis Castillo? If so, the kid is like 15 years old according to his dad’s wiki page.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: He’s at least the 13th minor leaguer named Luis Castillo. I’d never heard of this Luis Castillo before, but he seems like a control-oriented starter candidate in High-A, so, whatever. Fringe-y prospect. Odds are you won’t hear of him again

9:41
Friar: Thoughts on Cashner trade?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really like it for the Marlins. They must’ve really soured on Naylor, or else there’s no great explanation. And to give up Capps — you know I love Carter Capps. Now that being said, Naylor might not ever amount to anything, and Capps might not ever stay healthy. Easy to see how this return busts for San Diego. But I don’t think Cashner is good, and I don’t think Rea is good. The Marlins needed a starter but I’d be surprised if they couldn’t do better than this

9:42
NYTT: Trying to get an idea of what people think of Folty’s year and future. How promising has his progression been this year and is a #2 starter easier to see than before the season?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Big step forward. I wrote a little thing about him not long ago. He’s made that difficult leap for a power pitcher into being someone with control, and so while he’s not yet polished and complete, he’s at least a No. 3 at present. Lots of room to grow. Like him

9:43
Matt: Tell me why the Cubs do not deserve to be mocked for this Chapman trade?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a really good pitcher

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: That’s the counter-argument

9:44
Reginald Denton III: Is the fact that Bryce Harper is hitting .236 not getting enough discussion? I mean, what the hell is going on there?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: It is under-discussed. I’d expect there will be more coverage after the deadline, when we’re into the boring death stretch of August

9:44
Woods: How quickly can we decide a reliever is really good? To put a face to the question, is Edwin Diaz already a top-20 or better reliever? What does that make him worth?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think you need a huge sample for relievers when the stuff is obvious and the strikeouts are there. Edwin Diaz is clearly great. Dario Alvarez is clearly pretty good. We saw this last year with guys like Mychal Givens and Tony Zych. Relievers can pop up quickly and then it’s just a matter of staying healthy

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Carson Smith shows why it can be wise to trade these relievers if you’re not in contention

9:46
Julio Pepper: Don’t you think GMs should always just be going for value? Like if you were the Dodgers right now, wouldn’t you be looking at the Chapman trade and being like “Who wants some Jansen!”

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Well value only matters in the context of trying to win. If the Dodgers determined that they could win *without* Jansen then that would be a fascinating move that would piss people off. But without Jansen the Dodgers would be screwed

9:48
Whats that Odor: Dan Shulman was saying the Jays need to add a LHP, any ideas of who they can realistically can go after?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Will Smith is still the guy out there

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Alvarez would’ve been neat

9:48
mtsw: Reported that the Rays asked for Yelich and Realmuto back for Odorizzi. Just a case of Rays’ front office hoping to take advantage of a badly-run org or would something like that somehow make sense?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: No, that would be stupid. That’s also probably just a first offer. Nobody ever accepts a first offer

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: If reporters had full access to initial trade rumors, they could make every front office look insane

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Like a dealership offering a car at the listed price. It’s stupid. But nobody pays the listed price, so

9:49
senpaisanto: hi jeff – whattaya reckon happens to chris sale?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: 80/20 he stays put

9:50
bakkemon: what would be your advice to dayton moore?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Look to sell some pieces for players who could help as soon as 2017

9:50
Jeff: Who is Josh Naylor, and what should the Padres expect from him?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a young first baseman who 13 months ago was selected 12th overall. Recently turned 19 years old. He hasn’t lit the minors on fire and young first basemen frequently turn into older designated hitters. So Naylor really, really, really needs to hit. But he was a high draft pick, and his stock hasn’t cratered since. Good get

9:51
Julio Pepper: I feel like the buying/selling dichotomy gets too much credit.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: I was interested in that quiet Montgomery/Vogelbach move because it was buying and selling simultaneously

9:55
Doremi: Mariners calling up Heredia who is a free agent after this season. Do they have rights to retain him over other teams if he impresses at the major league level?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty sure he has the standard team-control conditions

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: No team would sign a player like that for one year

9:56
NYTT: All of these teams looking for a backend arm with high asking prices. Kind of surprising no mention of Vizcaino, even if he’s on the DL with an oblique.

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Vizcaino was on the market before he got hurt, but even then he had like a month or something of not throwing strikes. So he’s killed his own trade stock

9:58
Torque: Pretend you’re Tigers GM Al Avila, what move do you make?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Well, they probably can’t afford Lucroy, which is a bummer

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Boy, looking at this landscape, I sure don’t know

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s give ’em Nate Karns! They could go get swingman Nate Karns, whose stock is down. But he could offer some sort of help in the rotation and in the bullpen, and he’s acquirable

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: This is a very unsexy suggestion. For that I apologize

10:01
jdlandrum: Just joined a climbing gym a few weeks ago, any tips for an inexperienced climber on ways to improve?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Try to go fairly consistently. Climb with other people if you can, and it wouldn’t hurt to take one or two multi-hour workshops on technique. Pay attention to the good climbers in the gym to see what they do. On your own time, fold in simple exercises like push-ups and core work. The core is like two-thirds of good climbing

10:03
Andrew: Seriously, with the return that the Padres got for Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea and with the return the Braves were able to get for freaking Lucas Harrell and Dario Alvarez, why on earth would Coppy NOT sell Teheran at this point? I get it, the Braves rotation would be a dumpster fire until the kids in A and AA start arriving, but this should be a no-brainer, right?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Well Teheran is on a different level from those guys, and it’s easier to separate a team from its C-level prospects than it is to separate a team from its A-level prospects. So I get why Teheran negotiations would be tough

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: But I’m still very much in favor of moving him. Absolutely

10:05
NYTT: Is Freeman’s power a one year thing or is this more or less who he is going forward?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: This feels like a natural progression. He’s trying to hit for more power

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: He’s also boosted by the league-wide dinger incresae

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: *increase

10:06
mtsw: How much has Dylan Bundy’s trade value changed since he’s shown himself to already be a more-or-less cromulent starting pitcher since the O’s moved him into the rotation?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Bundy’s stock is definitely rising. Of course, few teams need pitching more than the Orioles do. So it would be very tough to see them cutting him loose

10:07
Bork: Go big or go home – Sale to the Red Sox in a deal that includes Moncada and a lot of fan tears.

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: That would be easier for me to see in the offseason, instead of today

10:07
Brad: should i be disappointed if the Brewers don’t net a top 50 prospect for Lucroy?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Very much so, unless instead of a top-50 prospect they got a quality young major-leaguer

10:07
PRF Coach: Realistic return for Jay Bruce — if he’s moved? Thanks

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Less than the Reds think, apparently

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say he’s Matt Kemp, but he’s more Matt Kemp than he is Starling Marte

10:09
Josh: Where do you think Lucroy ultimately ends up?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Indians

10:10
senpaisanto: does cashner to marlins swing the needle any which way for you?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: No needle on the planet responds to a trade of Andrew Cashner

10:10
Will: What are the chances Max Kepler turns out to be a better player than Byron Buxton?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Excitingly and disappointingly high

10:11
Dad: Competitive Phillies ETA? (Moved up at all by early Nola/VV performances?)

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: 2018

10:12
mike: moncada is striking out at an alarming rate at AA. Is there cause for concern?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: He’s still adjusting early, and it’s not like his overall numbers are down. Lots to love, still

10:12
termel sledge: Are the Marlins placing more value on a WC spot than the average FO would? The Cashner trade seemed… short-sighted.

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: They do know they have Jose Fernandez, who might be the best pitcher in baseball as long as Kershaw is hurt

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: of course, there’s no guarantee Fernandez would be able to start the one-game playoff

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: In general the Marlins have an established history of falling all over themselves for hard-throwing pitchers who don’t do much else. Cashner fits that mold

10:14
Tyler: Jeff, can you make a case for the Cardinals to win the NL Central? Team seems to be turning the corner of late. The return of Carpenter can only help down the stretch

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe if the Cubs are all kicked out of the league for doping

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals are really good, given a steadier bullpen. The Cubs are better

10:15
Mike: Despite a rough start do you think Cody Reed(Cin) is a #2?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Well, he obviously isn’t right now, and I try not to take anything for granted with young pitchers. But the ability is obviously there and maybe he’s following the Jon Gray path. 2017 will be the biggest season for him

10:16
Chip Locke: Jeff, what is objectively the best pizza place in Portland?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Apizza Scholls

10:17
Jake : If Andrew Cashner and Hellickson can fetch multiple prospect consideration, can Miguel Gonzalez get back at least an average piece? He’s been pretty good in July

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: The funniest outcome would be the Orioles getting him back

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: All that stuff about his velocity was unfounded, turns out

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not worth nothing

10:19
Carl Crawford’s Pet Brontosaurus: What is your take on the struggles Lucas Giolito has had with his command this year? Is it growing pains or a problem going forward.

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: These issues aren’t new to him. Kind of like with Glasnow — the stuff is really good, and that excites the scouts, but improving command is always the toughest. Nothing with Giolito can simply be assumed just because he’s ranked so well on prospect lists. He’s still incomplete and if I were the Nats I’d be more open to trading him than the team probably is

10:22
Justin: 90’s-00’s Mariners now have two HOFers (Griffey and Johnson), one no-doubter on his way (Ichiro), one other should-be no-doubted but for PED issues (Rodriguez), and another guy who deserves to be in but got jobbed (Martinez). How often do you look back on those teams and wonder how they never won a WS?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Stars and scrubs, man. Those Mariners teams in the 90s were loaded with stars but the rosters were woefully incomplete.

10:22
mwlarson: Felix’s velocity is slightly up since he’s been back, but he’s gotten hit hard in the last two starts. Are you worried? Cautiously optimistic?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I assume he’s still finding his mechanics — he’s not used to these kinds of layoffs. But he’s been mediocre for long enough that you can’t just assume he’ll find his way back. He might well just be an average pitcher now

10:24
Dumpster Fiers: Any shot Hamels wins the AL Cy Young?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Actually a pretty good shot, I’d say

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: No one has been unbelievable

10:24
Doug: Has Tony LaRussa lost his marbles? Any truth to the Ziegler rumors that he gave the BoSox a heavy discount due to his relationships with Dombrowski?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Too stupid to believe

10:25
lunch: dave cameron seems to think not trading teheran is like (and i’m paraphrasing here), real dumb. on a scale of 1 to real dumb, how dumb do you think not trading him is?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously it all depends on what other teams are offering, but assuming other teams have offered nice packages, I’d say it’s an 8 or a 9

10:25
Bost: Why are the Red Sox not heavily involved in Lucroy / Bruce / other LF options?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Benintendi looms for LF. And who’s to say they’re not in on Lucroy?

10:27
mike sixel: Kyle Gibson or Shelby Miller rest of their contracts? KLAW and Eno disagree….you are the tie breaker.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Blech. I’ll take…Gibson…slightly

10:28
jdlandrum: Also what’s up with Tyler Duffey? Command issues?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like hitters have been sitting curveball. Not a bad approach when Duffey is on the mound. So he either needs a better third pitch, or he needs to do a better job of utilizing his fastball in curveball counts

10:29
BPBerkeley: In his chat earlier this week, Dave Cameron answered yes when asked whether he still thinks Jason Heyward was worth the contract he got. Given your piece yesterday about his struggles, I’m curious how you’d answer.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Well there’s a difference between asking whether he was worth his contract, or whether he’d get the same contract today. I still don’t have a problem with what the Cubs gave him. If they could do it all over again, I’m sure they would give him less

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Heyward’s wOBA projection is down 15 – 20 points. It’s a big drop

10:31
HappyFunBall: What team, seemingly need need of a real upgrade somewhere, will come out of this deadline having done nothing significant?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: They could make this look stupid at any moment but maybe the Dodgers?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Safer bet might be the Orioles

10:32
SDinSEA: With as wicked movement and command as possible of a fastball, how low velocity wise could a RH throw and still have an 80 grade fastall?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: 90ish

10:33
Jack: If the Twins got a top 100 prospect for Nunez, should the Rays be able to get one for Pearce?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Nunez has an extra year of control, so that helps him out

10:34
Alex: Should there be concern over Sano’s high K%? A lot of the Twin’s young core has been disappointing in the Majors thus far

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, there should. At this strikeout level, even Stanton underwhelms. But Sano’s contact rate is up six points, and he has a pretty good eye. So there are more pluses than minuses

10:35
Frank: Do you think the Dodgers should stand pat and keep JDL, Urias, Verdugo, Bellinger, Alvarez or make a run for Sale and others?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve convinced myself they should keep the top guys and make an off-the-radar run at Danny Duffy

10:36
Vince Clortho: Counterpoint: AJ Preller just really likes talking on the phone. I look forward to them trading all of these prospects out this winter to contend!

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: He must be so exhausting to hang out with

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Probably a horrible date

10:36
Dylan: Why would the Jocketty willingly disclose that he hasn’t received any worthwhile offers for Jay Bruce? There is zero upside to holding on to him past the deadline.

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Well if he had received a worthwhile offer for Jay Bruce, then Jay Bruce would’ve been traded by now. Everyone on the market who hasn’t been moved yet hasn’t been moved because there haven’t been worthwhile offers

10:37
Todd: Who’s the non-closing reliever you are targeting right now for future saves?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: This is a fantasy baseball question but in non-fantasy terms Edwin Diaz will be closing soon

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I guess that’s also in fantasy terms

10:38
Dumpster Fiers: You think the A’s would offer Hill a QO? He’d probably accept it, and the A’s wouldn’t want that contract. Has to work in favor of the teams scouting him.

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I bet the A’s would love that contract

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Hill for one year and $16 million? No question

10:38
Ramon: What are the Reds doing with Raisel?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Protecting his shoulder

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Iglesias as a reliever has allowed a .191 wOBA. Not saying this is how it’ll go but if he ends up a fireman, someone like a Betances, that’s not a bad outcome

10:39
Guesto: Taijuan Walker would bring back a huge haul for the Mariners, no?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but it’s probably not worth doing right now

10:39
Slew: Odds of the Indians standing pat? I say 75%.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: 5%

10:39
Sam H: What’s the trade market like for Norris? Any chance Jay or Ross are moved while injured?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Jay apparently could be moved. Ross won’t be

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Norris would be an interesting get for the Rockies

10:41
Mark: Rangers’ OF (when healthy) is set with Choo, Mazara and Desmond. Beltre at 3B for the next few years. And putting Gallo at DH kills a ton of his value. For these reasons, he’s gotta be on the move, right?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: I must’ve missed when the Rangers got a good first baseman

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: And Desmond is a free agent to be. And Choo is always hurt. There is room. There is so much room

10:42
Jason: What are your thoughts on the M’s selling on Taijuan Walker? A couple years ago I shuddered at the thought but I’m really starting to wonder if he’s a top of the rotation guy long term, plus your standard TINSTAAPP/pitcher health concerns. If Dipoto get an offer that includes some shiny stuff coming back it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world, right?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: No problem here with the idea of moving Walker, but I don’t think you do it now when he’s dealing with an injury and his numbers are mediocre

10:42
Andrew: Hey Jeff, what type of return do you think the Angels could get for Matt Shoemaker IF they trade him? He seems to me to have large margin of trade potential could be a big return or could be small return.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think other teams quite trust him, but he’d still get a haul. That being said, the Angels will need people to start games in 2017, and they won’t want to pull the rug out from under their chances of contention already. With Skaggs coming back, they could and should improve

10:44
Penguin: I think Harpers struggles might partly be swing related, mechanical. I’m not a swing expert.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Usually the case

10:44
James Paxton: I’ve drastically improved my walk rate while gaining velocity, but I still get crushed. Is it my command? When will I meet my peripherals?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Partially command, partial luck. You are good

10:44
SDinSEA: What’s a realistic expectation for Derrick Norris. Considering is trends and positional scarcity, could he pull a top 100 guy?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Lower top 100. His bat has been really bad, but he’s still a decent defensive catcher with remaining control years

10:45
A friend : pop quiz hotshot. Airport, gunman with one hostage. He’s using her for cover; he’s almost to a plane. You’re a hundred feet away… Jeff?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I assume that the gunman doesn’t know how to fly a plane

10:47
Ranger Danger: People love to compare Gallo to Crush Davis. However, checking their player pages and I noticed Gallo K’s 10-12% more often than Davis ever did in the minors. Does Gallo even have a chance?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Gallo has a good chance. Branyan is a popular comp. And he had a 111 big-league wRC+ even while striking out a third of the time. Gallo could be Branyan with health and an earlier opportunity

10:48
Matt: The only Yankee moving between now and the dealine is Nova, isn’t it?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t be at all surprising

10:49
EC: Something is wrong with Papelbon, or he’s getting old quick. What do Nats do? Should they keep Reynaldo, Robles, and Giolito untouchable? (assuming that Trea Turner is now something more than untouchable)

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I think they could improve their bullpen without paying full price for one of the elite guys

10:50
Josh: John Morosi just reported that nats would trade Giolito for Andrew Miller straight up… crazy right? In this market the Yankees should get at least Robles too… just kidding… how do the Nats do this?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, we don’t know if that report is actually correct. But if it is, you could kind of get it, from the perspective that Giolito’s control is not good and the Nationals might figure he’s around his value peak

10:50
KDL: Danny Salazar, Cy Young candidate?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Also up there

10:51
Ralph : So Votto is back to being VOTTO. And as baseball fan, I’m thankful for that.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: It was always going to end up like this. He messed around with some weird shit in April but that wasn’t going to last

10:51
Zach: Word is that the Nats would send Giolito straight up for Miller. Would NYY be crazy to say no?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: If I were the Yankees, I would do this

10:51
Danny: You want some trivia Jeff? Can you name the 5 biggest platoon split projections by Steamer for left handed MLB hitters ROS?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:51
jb: How much does Rich Hills value drop because of his recent health issues?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, a blister is better than an elbow problem, but this isn’t helping. Teams want to see players playing. Rich Hill has thrown five pitches in three weeks

10:52
Jack: Even if Gallo bats .240, if he can get on-base at a .330 clip, a .240/.330/.500(+?) hitter is still a pretty useful player

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Especially if he plays decent defense

10:53
KDL: I’m not challenging the idea of organizational depth. But how does it actually help? I’m thinking about this in terms of…Why would a team take a top 100 prospect and filler, instead of pushing for the same total value, but in a top 50 prospect instead.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Diversification. Different teams will have different attitudes on the matter

10:53
Shin soo-Choo Express: Is Robbie Ray a Left handed reincarnation of Brandon Morrow? Huge K’s, lots of Homers, disconnected ERA and xFIP…

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: He’s fascinating, is what he is. Remember when we all dismissed him as a non-prospect? Whoopsadoodle

10:54
Jordan: One reason the Nats have been reluctant to go to Kelley as their closer is his injury history precluding frequent use. Is there some sort of stopgap measure they could use as closer in the regular season then turn to Kelley in the postseason?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: I’m a huge Blake Treinen booster, so I’m here to push Blake Treinen. Poor man’s Britton! Poor man’s Britton!

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Last I checked, Britton has the league’s best hard-hit/soft-hit difference. Treinen is second-best

10:56
Andrew: Would Kershaw still be the NL Cy Young frontrunner at this point? Unless of course he doesn’t come back at all this season.

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: If Kershaw came back tomorrow, it would be him. That’s not happening, so Jose Fernandez might be the next-best bet

10:56
fresh basil: Did you see the status that bot k Davis and C Davis have the same AvG, hits, and HRS over the last 162 games?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Not the first time they’ve done this. Underrated favorite thing

10:56
Robbie: Dumb question, what is trout in the scouting ranges?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: uhhhh…70 hit, 70 power, 70 speed, 70 fielding, 50 arm?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: 40 arm?

10:57
Seanto: who is the next guy up to the show that you’re pumped about?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: De Leon

10:58
Maxamuz: Thoughts on the Nats saying they will do Giolito for Miller straight up?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Ballsy

10:58
Mike: Do you think teams view Pearce as an everyday player or as a utility/matchups guy?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: The latter. Semi-regular

10:58
J: What do you do with Aaron Sanchez?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Skip some starts and keep him in the rotation unless he shows signs of coming apart

10:58
CT Stemp: How much are the Padres going to regret trading Pomeranz early after seeing what other teams are going to get for lesser pitchers in this desperate market?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Anderson Espinoza is a super good prospect. They’ll be fine

10:59
Norrin Radd: Is there a metric for how far off a pitcher misses his target? It might shed some more light on who leans effectively wild and who has actual command. Would this even be useful or is the classic ball/strike evaluation of command good enough?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: There does exist something called COMMANDf/x which purports to measure the difference between pitch location and glove target. My understanding, however, is that when teams have dived in, they haven’t found much of anything worthwhile

11:00
Marcus Banks: Considering the players that Chapman brought back, and the fact that Miller would be expected to yield an even greater return, what kind of packge could the Yankees reasonably expect to get for Betances if they decided to move him?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Most valuable reliever in baseball. Two premium prospects

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Not like Moncada-level premium

11:01
Frank: Follow up to the Dodgers keeping their core. Wouldn’t the Royals at least want one of Verdugo or Bellingver? Can’t see them being ok with a Jharel Cotton or Josh Sborz

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers could stand to lose one of them, but that’s better than losing Urias or De Leon

11:01
Batman: you think Cishek is traded or just moved from the closers role? (since you think Diaz will be closing soon….)

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: I was speaking mostly in terms of 2017

11:01
Pomeranz: Giolito for Andrew Miler. Who says no?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: If I had to guess, the Nats might get cold feet

11:02
Da Bum: Pick a rookie hitter from this season you’d want most for the next 5 years …

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Seager

11:02
ugw: So, the bloom is off the Giolito rose. Nats couldn’t have liked what they saw from Giolito in his starts – trying to cash in before the league wises up? He’s clearly not ready, but I didn’t see anything close to the 80 fastball some advertised.

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Big arm whose repertoire has long been ahead of his results. Scouting lists love these guys

11:03
jon: Your view on Javy Baez going forward? Just broke 2 war for the season, above average offense and defense. Way decreased K rate.

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: His discipline still sucks, and he’s faced a bunch of mediocre pitchers, but he’s probably an everyday player, stuck on the wrong roster

11:04
Chris: Pick a 32+ year old bat you want for the next 5 years…

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Joey Votto

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling. Might have to talk about this Giolito stuff!

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/29/16 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Dr Hocker
Member
Member
Dr Hocker

Is it just me or do I see a fair share of unwarranted devotion to Votto from Fangraphs? Yea–great 2nd half last year–but he has sucked again for half a season. The Reds depend on him as being their main man and yet they’re in sell off mode most of the time and their park is near empty quite often. What the hell good is Joey Votto? Seems like these guys are blinded by his intellect and sweet interviewing skills.

Ancalagor
Member
Ancalagor

If not sarcasm,
Votto has a 235 wRC+ over the last 30 days. He had one bad month (April, 65 wRC+), one slightly above average month (May, 113), and has been elite bat since (172, 219). Votto is one of the very best hitters in the game.

Mark Davidson
Member

Gotta be sarcasm, right? .308/.423/.531, 155 wRC+ for his career