Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/7/17

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for that delay, was finishing a podcast

9:06
Stuafoo: Dave made an interesting claim recently that Brandon Belt might be the player who is hurt most by their home ballpark. Who else would be on that list?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: So I actually kind of disagree with Dave there

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: It’s true that Belt has hit twice as many home runs on the road as he has at home, over his career. But his career home wOBA is .359. His career road wOBA is .348!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Even unadjusted for park, Belt has been more productive in San Francisco. Worse power, so worse reputation, but he’s been good

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Tried to do some quick side research that didn’t work. Sooooo that’s a bummer

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: But a name that at least used to come to mind is Christian Yelich

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Yelich at home: .335 wOBA. Yelich on the road: .357

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: The park has changed a little bit to become more favorable, but under other circumstances, he’d be more widely recognized as a star

9:11
Q&A: Thanks for the chat! What are your thoughts on Tanaka of late? Has he turned a corner?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I’m unconvinced anything was actually wrong. I mean, it’s bad to give up so many home runs, but I could never find a reason. The stuff was fine. The other results were fine. Now the home runs have just kind of gone away. Similar to Mike Fiers. There’s a reason why we consider home-run rate one of the least stable metrics out of all of them

9:13
JTT: Jeff, let’s say you were gifted a MLB team this offseason. Would you be level headed and run it responsibly, or could you not resist the urge to go out and acquire your favorite players and past their prime former favorite players? Sign Ichiro, trade for James Paxton and Keon Broxton regardless of the cost

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: No, I wouldn’t do that. For one thing, the Mariners and Brewers know what they have in Paxton and Broxton. I’d just try to have the organization develop my new favorite players. Always move forward, and whatnot

9:14
Q&A: How do you view Peacock? Does Houston really need another starter? Can he be the guy?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Wrote about Peacock a few weeks ago http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brad-peacock-has-become-a-strikeout-god…

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s become very good. I also think he’s inefficient and maybe best utilized as just another Devenski type, but if Houston is comfortable with it, I could see Peacock becoming kind of a four- or five-inning starter down the stretch and in the playoffs, with the bullpen assuming more of the burden

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: The Astros bullpen is so deep that they don’t need so many innings from the staff

9:16
matt: How do you think Aaron Nola will fare in the second half?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: He’s good, he seems healthy, and he’s throwing harder than ever. Good second half coming

9:16
Daniel: Realistically, what are the chances Nick Markakis makes it to 3000 hits? Or even 2500?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Currently, he’s at 1,980

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: His bat is aging okay, but he doesn’t do anything else particularly well, so he’s not someone you have to try to keep in the lineup as he declines

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Decent shot at 2,500 within three years, but 3,000 strikes me as a fantasy

9:18
Ben: So, 3 hour rain delays without rain are the worst type of rain delays.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: At least the second one of these we’ve had this year. Maybe there’ve been more. I don’t have an actual opinion that isn’t pure hindsight, but it’s never a good look

9:20
Jordan: I’ve asked this in every chat (here and MLBTR) and haven’t received an answer so I’m starting to wonder if it’s coming across as trolling lol, anyway….
If the Jays were to market Donaldson would the framework of something to the respect of Devers & Raudes for Donaldson & Happ/Estrata/Liriano work for both sides?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Leaving aside divisional concerns, I’m not sure the Red Sox would go there. Donaldson hasn’t been playing at his peak, and there are going to be cheaper 3B alternatives that don’t cost the organization one of the better prospects around

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Given the Red Sox’ position, they could add Todd Frazier and call it good

9:22
Q&A: Is Andrew Miller the most underrated franchise player? Besides being awesome on and off the field, he leaves every franchise better when the team trades him (w/ exception to Marlins?). Weird to think of a reliever this way but he’s incredible

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably still Paul Goldschmidt

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: It’s always going to be Paul Goldschmidt

9:23
Cheese: Who is a realistic SP for the Dodgers, and what does it cost to get him.  Verdugo + Calhoun plus a minor piece for Gray?  Would they go for an all LHP playoff rotation if they can get Quintana?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I remain unconvinced the Dodgers actually need a front-line starter. I’m also unconvinced they’d pay the price for one. Their depth is still insane and Kershaw/Wood/Hill is fantastic

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I could see them instead making a package move for a reliever and an outfielder

9:24
Dan: Rich Hill’s player page:
6/16 – Rich Hill Is Out Of Whack – Jeff Sullivan
7/6 – Rich Hill Got Good Again – Jeff Sullivan

Quick turnaround. Why doesn’t everyone just add a cutter and become amazing?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Something we probably don’t appreciate enough: players are always going through slumps and hot streaks. They don’t happen by accident. There are real things going on; they’re just often temporary

9:26
Q&A: How do you compare Judge and Bellinger outside of the batter’s box? Huge Yankees fan so have seen the arm and defense on Judge but see very little written on both outside of dingers…

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I can tell you that, currently, Bellinger has the higher Statcast sprint speed

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Their arms have been rated about the same. I think Judge is the superior defender, but they’re both perfectly useful. And, obviously, it’s the dingers that make them stand out

9:27
Steve: Jeff, I, for one, am very glad that you didn’t die on a mountain.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: My girlfriend, too. She would’ve had to drive the terrible forest road away from Shasta back to the freeway, and no one wants to do that in someone else’s car

9:28
Q&A: Any thoughts/news on Carter Capps?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Last pitched on July 2. Hasn’t walked a guy over his last five outings, but he isn’t firing on all cylinders

9:31
Nate: What would Brandon Belt get in a trade? Would it be worth it for the Giants to move him?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Giants should actually begin tearing down, but if this is the path they choose, Belt is signed to a very reasonable long-term deal. So there’d be a prospect package coming back. I could see the Yankees deciding that Belt is the guy they want, and then Bird ends up part of the return. Not, of course, the main part

9:32
Toe: Since Dave warned everyone about Hosmer he’s run like a 145 wRC+. Is it all BABIP fueled? Regardless his next contract is looking better and better

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Some of it is BABIP, and some of it is Hosmer just being awful in April. He’s hit fewer and fewer grounders as the months have gone on. He still doesn’t tap into enough power for me, and so I think his current line is over his head, but the potential remains sky-high given how hard he does hit the ball when he gets loft

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like Hosmer will be an overrated free agent, but he continues to tease

9:35
doodman: Why do catchers lose their framing ability so quickly?  Is it predictable?  Posey seems to have lost his in a big way this season.

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Jose Molina, for example, was an outstanding framer forever. Brian McCann is still good

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: But if I had to guess, the metrics still don’t do a good enough job of adjusting for the pitchers. The pitchers make a huge difference, and there might not have been a better strike-zone battery than Posey/Bumgarner. Without Bumgarner, Posey was bound to look worse, especially with Cueto also struggling

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Whether there are other issues, I don’t know. When you have a narrowing range of talent, you’re going to get more people bouncing around, just as noise.

9:38
Mark: Is Chris Taylor the new Justin Turner?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not that good, but he is pretty good

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: His discipline is terrific. Makes enough contact, doesn’t pop up. Had a down June, suggesting that pitchers are finding some holes, but he’s a real player

9:39
Bat flip: So the Nationals delayed their game last night for 3 hours without any rain falling. So, were they just scared if some rain did come in that they’d have to go to their bullpen early?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Middle relief hasn’t really been their problem. The rest of the relief…

9:39
Q&A: What is Keon Broxton’s ceiling? The defense is great, the hot streaks are HOT, but the strikeouts and inconsistency are maddening. Also not too young. Could you see a similar breakthrough as Hicks right now?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Broxton’s swing and miss is extreme. Definitely doesn’t chill anything out with two strikes. Maybe he’ll grow out of that, and maybe he won’t. Peak Keon Broxton could resemble something like Mike Cameron — I like Broxton’s defense better than the numbers right now, and his eye is all right. But the strikeouts will never disappear

9:41
2-D: Could you average faster than 57.4 mph across 15 pitches?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:42
Harry: Is Lindor still a .300 hitter in the second half? Starting to get worried.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: According to Baseball Savant, 2017 Lindor has an “expected” batting average of .261

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: He’s made the deliberate decision to swap grounders and line drives for more fly balls. It worked for a little while, but fly-ball hitters without extreme power tend not to run high batting averages

9:43
Michelle: Hi Jeff! Do you think the Dbacks will be buying since they have very little to offer and will likely only make a wildcard game?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’ll make a little addition or three. Can never have enough relievers. Won’t make an enormous splash, I don’t think

9:44
Jaff: Hey Jeff i’m planning on hiking mt. Hood soon. I’ve hiked some practice mountains like Defiance and Table Mountain. Is there any others that would be good for preparing for Hood?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Defiance is the best one, unless you go and do one of the other high peaks around, like Adams. Just make sure you respect the task in front of you. Read about the conditions, and try to do Hood as soon as you can, before summer gets deeper. The climbing season is ending and you have to be very wary of rockfall around the summit. It’s a dangerous climb, and you should probably start around 11pm from Timberline, assuming that’s your route. I’d recommend a weekday

9:46
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Brad Boxberger has looked sharp since returning from the DL, and the Rays could use the help. Is this the return of former All Star Boxberger?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Best we can say right now is that the velocity is there. Monitor how aggressively he’s attacking the zone. If he’s aggressive, that bodes well that he’s back in peak shape

9:48
Hitters: How far ahead of the Cubs would the Brewers need to be on July 31 for you to say they’re the favorites to win the Central?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Six games

9:48
Christian: 5.5 WAR in 81 games is pretty good, right?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Aaron Judge might actually be underrated

9:49
Q&A: What’s your opinion of Oakland’s strategy? Seems like they almost fake competing year over year – bring in a few veterans and sell, not a full rebuild commitment or go for it, no real franchise player development, etc. It’s not all budget driven either.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sympathetic, and I think the A’s have been struck by some lousy fortune the last few years, but a fuller rebuild wouldn’t be crippling. It’s not like the fan base sees this as a contender anyway, as they haven’t been good for a while, and right now they’re looking way, way up at the Astros

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Donaldson did bring back some talent, and Sonny Gray will do the same. The A’s are, gradually, transitioning to a younger roster with more talent. But the play-for-.500 strategy just might not be good enough

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: The thinking has been that, if you’re okay, you can sneak into the wild card, and then anything can happen. But there’s so much parity that just being okay doesn’t work. You have to get good

9:52
Marty McFly: Jeff, what can you tell me about Mark Trumbo? He hit 49 homers last year and in the year of the long ball he’s at 13.

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: The year before last year, he hit 22

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: He’s better than this, but he isn’t actually very good

9:53
Matty P: Hey Jeff, what baseball player do you think you would be friends with in real life?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Can I count some minor-league nobody?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: My go-to answer is Michael Saunders

9:54
Jobu: What would be a realistic package for the Cubs to land Verlander?  One of Schwarber/Baez/Almora and a couple prospects? Can they do it without including Eloy Jimenez?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: If the Cubs actually gave the Tigers substantial talent without asking them to pick up salary, I think the Tigers would go for that in a heartbeat

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Schwarber would be a fascinating centerpiece. Bad year for him, but also bad year for Verlander. Cubs could say they only gave up their guy for an ace; Tigers could say they only gave up their guy for a wunderkind

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Both, obviously, would be lies

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: But useful for PR purposes

9:56
Q&A: Is AJ Reed a legitimate prospect? Does he help deepen Astros lineup? Doesn’t move the needle enough?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t do enough

9:56
Isaac: Hey Jeff – regarding your article on Verlander’s HH rate from the other day – Tigers sluggers Miggy, Upton, V.Mart, and of course, Castellanos, all have incredibly hard hit rates… what’s going on in DET? Is it the ballpark?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: yeah, there’s something weird happening there

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe it’s all actually true, but I suspect there’s some kind of scorer bias

9:57
Jeff’s Friend: Aaron. Judge. Is the guy really a .300 hitter like his xBA might suggest?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Giancarlo Stanton has topped out at .290, and his career average is .266. I figure Judge will encounter some kind of slump sometime soon

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: The ballpark helps — he can mis-hit some balls out to right field. But batting .300 these days as a high-strikeout hitter is incredibly challenging

9:59
Daniel: More likely: Cubs acquire Quintana/Gray or Brewers acquire Quintana/Gray

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Feel like the answer is Cubs

9:59
Sean: How about a couple second-half “bold” predictions?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Aaron Judge won’t lead the majors in second-half WAR

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Is that bold? I don’t even know if that’s bold

10:01
Q&A: What are your thoughts on Logan Morrison? Is he a legit masher now? Where does he go next year?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny to me in hindsight how much crap we gave the Jays for Smoak, the Rays for Morrison, and the A’s for Alonso

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Surprise! They’re all amazing!

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I think Morrison has taken a legitimate step forward, although he still won’t be valued all that high in free agency because of the longer, mediocre track record. It wouldn’t be a *complete* surprise to see him re-signed

10:02
Matt jardine: What’s your take on the royals and where they’re currently sitting? Would you expect to see them but or sell before the deadline

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Almost impossible to see them selling. They’re currently in a wild-card spot. Why would they give that up?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: As you could guess, I still don’t think the Royals are actually very good, but they know what they’re facing. This is their last go, very possibly. Unless things come apart, they’ll add minor pieces

10:05
Gary: Why Mookie hit so many pop ups?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Over the last three years, 230 players have batted at least 1,000 times. By IFFB%, Betts ranks in 40th place

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Now, that’s a higher rate than average, but it’s not so uncommon for a guy who’s more of a fly-ball bat. Betts is at 12.3% over the three years. Kevin Kiermaier leads the way at 17.9%

10:08
Kevin: So Blake Parker was demoted…?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like somebody somewhere along the line made a typo. Parker Bridwell was demoted

10:09
Q&A: Is Whit Merrifield a legit starter? Seems like a nice bump or KC hitting leadoff – doubles, stolen bases, etc.

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Runs well, seems to defend pretty well, makes contact. Low-ceiling kind of guy, but for now he can play every day

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: At this point he has a career 95 wRC+ through 608 plate appearances. 2.9 WAR. I don’t think he’s quite that good, but he could be league-average

10:11
Pretty Tony: I’m a videographer and I happened to be covering an event James McCann was attending. Got a chance to meet him and  almost asked him if he thought the ball was juiced but then I got scared because of that time Eno got bullied by Eric Hosmer.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: He wouldn’t have said anything anyway

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: This is more of a pitcher thing to begin with, and more importantly, baseball players generally don’t want to offer baseball insights when they’re away from the ballpark just trying to be casual

10:12
Dodgers: Are the Dodgers content with their team going forward and bring in additions internally, or do you expect some trades, big or small, during the next couple weeks?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe a medium splash, because they do have young players who are kind of blocked, but they love their situation. They’re amazing!

10:13
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Zunino…smoke and mirrors? Or has he turned a page?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: He still swings and misses all the time. He’s kind of like a slower Keon Broxton. A much, much, much slower Keon Broxton

10:14
Danny : Is it time for the Cubs to seriously consider a managerial change?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:15
Q&A: Jake Lamb hit two homers off lefties now – is he becoming a complete hitter? SSS?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: His wRC+ this year against lefties is 53

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Still good; still has holes

10:15
A.J. Hinch: Why does Dave Cameron hate my lineup?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: It’s over-performing. So the Astros could, in theory, make a move for a bat, and not have it be a waste

10:16
Sean: It bothers me that the market has evolved such that there are  distinct “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline. I mean, I get it, but the sellers are basically tanking.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: What do you want? At the deadline, there are teams in position to win now, and there are teams not in position to win now. Why would the latter teams hold?

10:18
Daniel: Any thoughts on the “wrc+ punishes coors players too much” sentiment?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: There’s some evidence that it might be too harsh by a few points, but it’s nothing dramatic

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Generally, when players have left Colorado, they’ve maintained similar wRC+ figures

10:19
Batflips for BB: A lot of members of the baseball analytics community seem to be indifferent to all-star selections and awards in general. Is there an alternative to the current all-star structure that you’d like to see?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why they actually play an All-Star Game

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I’d much prefer something more like a skills competition. The game is pointless

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: But, just in general, writers are concerned with the standings, and with the playoffs. Awards and the like are diversions. Even in the days of my stronger fandom, I didn’t quite understand why I was supposed to care who won the Cy Young

10:20
Max: Any chance Cueto rebounds in the second half? Giants could use some increased trade value.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, good chance

10:21
Moltar: What happened to Lindor’s AVG/OBP? Is he injured? Drunk on a moderate amount of power?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: The fly-ball revolution isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

10:22
Q&A: Does Mike Minor have a nice future as a shut down, multi-inning reliever? The injuries scare me but he’s having such a great season

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: He’s having a useful season, but at some point, a few more home runs will come. He’s been pitching well over his head

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Even still, he does seem good enough to be a 2+ inning reliever

10:23
Hank G.: After half a season, Michael Taylor is performing as a slightly above average center fielder, outperforming his projections. Is this sustainable?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: No, he’s worse than this, but he’s playable

10:24
Ronnie: I’m normally of the all 162 games are created more or less equally mindset, but after the Brewers smashed the Cubs yesterday in their make up game for the rain out that wasn’t I can’t help but feel like maybe it might have MEANT something. It didn’t mean anything more than it’s mathematical implications, right?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Find satisfaction wherever you like. If you choose to feel like that was the Brewers making a statement, there’s no harm in sticking to that belief

10:25
Steve: Are you worried about Kluber at all?  The results are clearly there but with a decreased velocity, will this amazing streak end soon?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see anything wrong with his stuff

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Seems fine. Seems outstanding!

10:26
Matt: Jerry Dipoto is speaking at a lunch event today and I should be able to get a chance to chat with him. Any ideas for questions that I actually might get an honest answer to?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: How do you feel about giving James Paxton a long-term extension?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Anything else, about the 2017 season specifically, is likely to be spoken around. Nothing Dipoto can say to satisfy the audience when the biggest problem has been terrible luck

10:27
Patty O’Furniture: What type of return could Julio Teheran bring to ATL?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Right now, not a great one

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: In case you haven’t noticed, he sucks

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: He’s better than this, but he’s tanked his value

10:30
careagan: I know Dave is more of the trade speculation guy, but I’m curious to see your opinion: do you think Calhoun, Verdugo and a top 15 org guy could get Sonny Gray and Khris Davis to the Dodgers?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: That seems more like a Gray package than a Gray and Davis package

10:31
josh: Hello jeff. I have some recent success using the last 30 day stats. How would i narrow down the last 30 days against LHP? I can only seem to do last 30 days for both hands for both pitching and hitting. Thanks

10:31
10:32
Pretty Tony: As a Tigers fan, the future looks boring and bleak. I look at a team like the Brewers, who have 5 of BA’s top 55 prospects, a tiny payroll, and a really interesting, cobbled-together team (that’s playing well!) and I can’t help but think DET could never expertly navigate a rebuild in quite the same way.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: No one could expect things to go as smoothly as they have for the Brewers. This has been too fast. And it’s likely to have more ups and downs before the Brewers are through this entirely

10:33
Mike Mitchell: Why should Jeff Luhnow even consider a trade 3 1/2 weeks early? He’s 9 games ahead of the entire AL, and then you just absorb the extra 4 starts of injury risk without a warranty.

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Depends what he wants. The benefit is trying to jump the market

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: But the Astros definitely shouldn’t feel any urgency here

10:34
Guest: re: Belt, I assume that Dave meant he was hurt in terms of reputation

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully, I think the actual teams are beyond caring about a player’s reputation. That’s more of a fan thing

10:35
Guest: Kahnle’s been beaten up lately — are the wheels coming off, or just some bad luck?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Just a few bad games. He’s still throwing hard, still missing bats, still throwing a bunch of strikes. Strike rate up from 62% to 69%. He’ll give up a home run here and there, but he’s going to be a desirable deadline asset

10:37
Jake: How do the Blue Jays’ asymmetrical farm quality (great 2020 ETAs, not much for 2018) impact Shapiro’s somewhat mysterious plan to be both a buyer and seller, ostensibly in the hope of being competitive now and a champion later as well. Does it mean they need to hold Donaldson, Stroman, and the other guys with a year or two left?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I have a lot of trouble seeing the Jays selling unless things fall apart. They’ve done the opposite of late. They’re still close enough right now I think they stick together

10:38
Q&A: I feel like a big portion of the game is becoming one dimensional on both sides – pitchers throw as hard as they can and come up less polished. Hitters swing for the fences on every pitch to hit dingers and not much else. Does this make the game more or less interesting for you?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think that much has actually changed. Like, comparing the average game from now to the average game from a decade ago, we’re talking about just a couple plate appearances per nine innings. That being said, this is just part of the current cycle. I think the velocity stuff will slow down as we develop a better understanding of the link between velocity and injury

10:39
Rick: I’d argue that Yelich is widely recognized as a star

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: On FanGraphs, he is, yes

10:40
Scuffy Mcgee: Has Orlando Arcia flown under the radar this year after big prospect status and a slow first season in the bigs?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: He’s flown under the radar because he’s a glove-first youngster playing in the game’s smallest market

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: And while he can defend just fine, he’s no Andrelton Simmons

10:41
Mr. Deadline: Any surprising names that you see potentially getting moved at the deadline?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s actually going to happen, but there’s some possibility the Mariners attempt to unload

10:42
fla;kldjwf: Was looking at Castellanos last night and his splits are really weird. Home vs LHP – .107 avg — Home vs RHP – .328 avg — Away vs LHP – .325 avg — Away vs RHP – .175 avg. Kills right as home, can’t hit them away. Kills lefties away but can’t hit them at home. That’s not normal right?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: As a rule of thumb, assume splits like this are nothing

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Handedness splits are real, and home/away splits are real, but I don’t know why there would be a reason to combine the two

10:43
CamdenWarehouse: Remember in March when it was a question if Jimmy Nelson was even going to make the Brewers’ rotation? Baseball is weird.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: I love the sudden breakouts. Baseball would be boring without them

10:43
Curved ball: How much blame is the homerun derby going to get for Bellingers current slump?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I *think* we’re starting to move past that, but I’m sure it’ll still come up

10:44
PrayforOtani: Your thoughts on the core of Andrus, Mazara, Gallo, Odor, Profar, (possibly Otani), carrying the Rangers over the next 2-5 years? What’s the Ranger’s long-term play given the young talent of Astros, Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Rangers are in a pretty bad spot, even with Gallo hitting decently. So much is going to be determined by how they feel about their chances at Otani. With him, sure, they could keep contending. Without him, this is an incomplete roster that doesn’t have a long-term star

10:45
Guest: is jarrod dyson a good baseball player?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:45
Zihuatenejo: Bellinger has been in a bit of a slump for the past week or so.  At what point should we become concerned?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Something like this was inevitable. Pitchers have gone out of the zone lately and Bellinger hasn’t been able to respond just yet. Nobody actually plays consistently at or around their own true-talent level

10:46
Tim: What do you love most about the Dodgers. Is it that Chris Taylor was received in trade for Zach Lee, that the Mets DFA’d Justin Turner, or that Clayton Kershaw exists and pitches every 5 days?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: It’s always Kershaw

10:46
Houzer: Verlander + ?? lands the Tigers Bregman?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: blackmail

10:47
Guest: alex avila: for real, or SSS? between him and judge, the statcast/launch angle revolution is messing up how I think of high-BABIP guys.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t let it. There’s been an awful lot of baseball over the years, and BABIP has never been broken before

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Avila himself has only 102 balls in play. The difference between a .412 BABIP and a .312 BABIP is 10 hits. Not very much

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Avila is a much-improved hitter, but he’s not one of the best hitters in the game

10:51
Matthew: You mentioned in your piece that the Brewers probably wouldn’t pursue Quintana/Gray so of course the rumor came out today they’re doing exactly that. Am I crazy looking at their payroll situation thinking they should be the team willing to add a big salary in order to shield their top prospects? I’m thinking Verlander/Cueto/Shark/Hamels.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll note first that there’s a difference between thinking about Quintana and Gray and actually mounting a serious pursuit of them

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: But someone like, say, Verlander would be awfully interesting. I don’t know if they’re budgeted to add that salary midseason, and they have some important players coming up on arb down the road. Cueto probably has too much risk if he decides not to opt out. But the Brewers certainly have options. I assume they’ll be conservative and go low-key, but they don’t have to

10:53
Ronnie: Would Verlander be a good hypothetical target for the Brewers if he is indeed on the block? They have payroll space to absorb all or most of the contract & given Milwaukee’s prospect depth/Verlander’s contract he could probably be had without surrendering Brinson, Hader or other more advanced prospects.

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: To follow up here, I think the bigger issue might even be on Detroit’s side. They might prefer to hold Verlander and assume he bounces back so that he could be moved for more actual talent in the winter or next July

10:55
Nate: Are there any glaring concerns about Kyle Seager?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing I see

10:57
Peter Angelos: What kind of package could a healthy Zach Britton bring back?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: A healthy Zach Britton would get an enormous return. But he doesn’t have very much time to prove that he’s back

10:58
Buxton: Please say you still believe in me!!

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: meh

10:58
Oddball Herrera: Haniger has had an interesting season, he went from future star to injured to strikeout prone mess.  Do you think he settles in at any higher than ‘average regular’?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he still has a 135 wRC+ as a pretty good defender. He’s a solid asset

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Even the worse version has just been too passive. Hasn’t swung at enough strikes. He’ll find his timing

11:00
ResumeMan: When the distance for a home run is reported, is that just the distance it travels before it hits something and then stops forward motion, or is it the distance that the arc of the ball’s flight would have taken it if there were no barriers?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: The second one. It’s a projection back to ground level

11:01
Chris: Is Quintana returning to form now or just not that great of a pitcher?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: He’s good. There was never anything seriously wrong

11:01
Jacob: What kind of skills competition would you most like to see at the all-star game

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Mostly, accuracy competitions, for both hitters and pitchers

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: The home-run derby already exists. Might as well take it a few more steps

11:02
Mark: Andrew McCutchen finishes his season wearing a __________ uniform.

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: different

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: take that, Mark!

11:02
JD: Whats Nola doing differently? hes looked like an  ace over the past month or so

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: He’s healthy is what he’s doing differently. Healthy Nola has always been very good

11:02
Yan: Should the Pirates try to get good value out of Rivero ?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Not if they think they can get back into it in 2018

11:03
2-D: When, if ever, would Keon Broxton become an extension candidate? There seems to be more factors to consider with him than the typical case.

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be 33 years old in his first would-be free-agent season. I don’t think there’s anything important to do here

11:04
ctw: the Pirates are facing some weird and awkward decisions with McCutchen and Cole this deadline. What’s your take?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: McCutchen goes, Cole stays

11:05
Big Joey: How good do you think Luis Castillio will be in the 2nd half? What’s his ceiling career-wise?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s not quite ready yet, but he could eventually settle in as a No. 2. I like a guy who’s shown that much of an ability to throw strikes against advanced competition

11:06
Matt: Do you detect any “stubbornness” on the part of the Cubs , in terms of addressing their SP issues? This day of reckoning with Arrieta FA and Lackey’s age-related decline was not difficult to envsion. The seem to providing a lot of leverage to other GMs and player agents.

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Last year the Cubs had maybe the best run-prevention unit in baseball history

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: This year, things got worse, but the Cubs didn’t have the option, really, of making moves within the first few months. No market

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: That leverage doesn’t exist. Nobody has the Cubs over a barrel, because every team thinking about selling is also competing against other would-be sellers

11:07
Sean: How are the Nationals going to fix that bullpen? Do you think Rizzo is reluctant to yet again trade prospects for a rent-a-closer?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Nope

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll probably add two or three guys

11:07
Not a burglar: Where do you live in Portland?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: east side, where there’s parking

11:09
Houzer: If Anibal Sanchez rips off 2 more quality starts, does he become a tradable piece at the deadline?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: I could easily see someone taking a cheap chance, just in case, but the Tigers aren’t getting anything of real value

11:11
Bubba: If you can build a team around Mookie Betts or Aaron Judge, who would you take and why?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Judge. Similarly-valued players now, but I think Judge’s offense could age better than Betts’ defense

11:11
Tom: Any chance Mariners can still be legit contenders for wildcard? Making them buyers here at the deadline?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: They’re still not that many games out, but they desperately need a couple starting pitchers

11:12
Sean: If you’re a borderline playoff team, while a deadline deal might “put you over the top” wouldn’t it also make sense to, if your roster is young enough, “wave the white flag” and sell for next year? (I’m thinking of the Yankees here)

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees are in a playoff spot right now. If they sold, they’d be pilloried

11:13
PD: What’s wrong with Mitch Haniger?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing important

11:13
Jay: What do you think of the Rays thus far this season? And what moves do you think they should try to make to at the deadline?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re perfectly legitimate as a WC team. Don’t think they’ll do anything big, but they need to address that bullpen. The return of Boxberger should help

11:13
Anon: Are the Yankees currently good at baseball?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

11:15
Mark: Justin Upton getting your attention yet for HOF ? Quietly compiling stats…..is he the Adrian Beltre of this generation ?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see Upton do what Beltre has done in his 30s.

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/7/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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hdtvsalesman
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Member
hdtvsalesman

Can’t seem to get an answer to ths question. How do I look at stats for the last 30 days based on handedness? IN other words, team batting against LHP for the past 30 days. I can review the last 30 days but only on both hands. Is there a better medium to get this answered other than email? I have not received a reply as of yet. Thanks

YKnotDisco
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YKnotDisco

Use the “splits leaderboard”.

BigChief
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Member
BigChief