Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/12/16

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: delayed by ESPN stuff. everybody has wonderful timing!

9:12
Bork: Hello, friend!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:12
Anthony: Andrew McCutchen HOF odds: over/under 50%?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: At this point I’d say under. He’s had some absolutely fantastic seasons but I’m concerned by what’s taken place in 2016. If he gets himself back on track, then he’s looking good — he’s already a hair north of 40 WAR. But to refer to the old-timey baselines, he’s not even at 200 homers or 1,500 hits. Long, long way to go

9:15
Jimi: You’re the manager. Before the game, you can guarantee your starter as many strikeouts as you want, but each strikeout will be an eight pitch at bat. How many do you sign up for?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: How’s my bullpen?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll give him…12 or 13 strikeouts

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: And if I further get to choose, I’ll space those 12 strikeouts evenly over six innings, getting the first two batters in each inning out

9:17
Houzer : Is Girardi missing the forest for the trees?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: I have to figure there’s some stuff we don’t know, but I lean toward yes. I sort of get the we-want-to-win perspective, but Alex Rodriguez is one of the greatest players in baseball history, and the game is about more than each day’s result.

9:20
Kim: Would Vogelbach be as good as Lind if he were called up now?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: I’m actually not convinced, but the two would be very close. Lind still projects for a 101 wRC+, whereas Vogelbach comes in at 97. Lind has been an adequate hitter since the end of April

9:21
bzimm22: Help settle a debate for me. Who was a better hitter, A-Rod or Manny Ramirez? My initial reaction was A-Rod by a mile, but the numbers suggest otherwise.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: At their respective peaks, Ramirez was a little bit of a better hitter. Rodriguez canceled most if not all of that out by being superior on the bases

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: And then, of course, there was everything else

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Who else here forgot that Ramirez made his last big-league appearance with the Rays?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: And the White Sox! Totally forgot about the White Sox.

9:24
Manny: If the Mariners make a playoff series – and have the flexibility to arrange things in their favor – what *should* their rotation look like?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Felix, Paxton, Iwakuma, water main break, Felix, Paxton

9:24
Matt: Obligatory question on your thoughts of how the Yanks FO is handling the A-Rod situation.

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: To follow up on earlier, I’ve tried not to get too invested. I don’t *really* care and I’m glad he’s at least getting his sendoff tonight. I also recognize that the way I feel about Rodriguez isn’t the way everyone else necessarily feels about Rodriguez so who am I to project my opinion on others?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: More than anything I’m grateful for Rodriguez giving the game so much color. Did it for two decades. Wasn’t always good! Was always entertainment. There’s a reason people get sucked into tabloids and soap operas, and Rodriguez lent the game some of that character

9:27
JTT: Jeff, does your dad like baseball? If so, what are his stances on typical the hotbutton issues for dads. The DH, interleague play and world series games being played at night. Does he have an affinity for white players wearing stirrups/high socks?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: My dad died in a plane crash in 1991!

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Thanks a lot, JTT!

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: (awkward silence)

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: To my knowledge my dad didn’t know anything about baseball. I think he did play tennis. But maybe that was just because of a hat he wore.

9:28
Alex: What would be the easiest 2 pitch arsenal to master? Fastball changeup?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Based on both theory and practice I think we have to say two-seamer/slider

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Those pitchers are everywhere. Changeups are super hard to pick up. Maybe that’s just my own personal experience since I don’t have big giant fingers, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that so many pitchers end up in the bullpen because they can’t develop a reliable offspeed weapon

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: A four-seamer is even easier to throw than a two-seamer but my sense is that a two-seamer is more forgiving

9:30
Snowflake: Who would win a game of aquatic baseball, Team Crabs or Team Octopi?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Team Octopi

9:31
Alex: Are you wearing your bright salmon shirt

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: too god damn hot already 🙁

9:31
Nick: Can you clear something up for me. What’s the difference in Bumgarner and Sale’s WAR. Bumgarner has more innings and a lower FIP, yet the same WAR. Is FIP not park/league adjusted? If not what similar stats are?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Raw FIP is not park-adjusted, which is why I always love looking at FIP- (which is). Bumgarner pitches in a very pitcher-friendly environment. Sale pitches in the bed of a pickup truck. So while Bumgarner has the better FIP by 36 points, Sale has the better FIP-, by two points

9:34
Snowflake: I forget… are you for or against volcano based human sacrifice?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I am against any form of human sacrifice, but I am for people being drawn to volcanoes

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: A big problem you’d encounter: at any given moment there are only like four or five active lava lakes. So you might send a person to the top of a volcano, but that person might just die of exposure after a while, unless he or she just got bored and came back down

9:35
Bork: DEVON TRAVIS? DEVON TRAVIS!

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Of some note: when I checked the other day, Travis has one of baseball’s biggest increases in average launch angle. Gone from about 6 to about 13 degrees above horizontal. Putting more balls in the air

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Also way up on that list: Justin Smoak and Ryan Goins and Josh Donaldson. Interesting!

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: I like Travis a lot. Was underrated when he was dealt. He’s even better than I expected him to be

9:37
Ross: Are these Mariners for real or is this just a hot 2 weeks?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: It can be both. Getting Felix back was important, even if he’s sort of struggled. Paxton is putting it together and Iwakuma has found a groove so finally there is some starting pitching holding up its end of the bargain. Diaz provides something Cishek couldn’t, and early indications suggest that even Zunino is better

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are 11th in winning percentage and 10th in BaseRuns winning percentage. They’re 11th in projected winning percentage. Pretty good club

9:39
soapy schoopy: I’m about to lose my mind. Beer league softball playoffs this weekend. We have a good squad! We have two HR hitters that my co-coach wants to split up at 4 and 7 in the lineup so we can “maximize home runs’. How do I convince him this idea is very fallible.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Tell him if he wants to maximize home runs, the first step should be maximizing exposure, which means maximizing plate appearances. Who gets the most plate appearances? The first hitters!

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: You can negotiate from there

9:41
Ampersand: Good morning Jeff! Do you have any thoughts about the AL Cy Young race? I feel like it’s wide open this year.

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: If it weren’t for the innings I’d just say the favorite is Danny Duffy

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I think you look at Kluber and Sale and potentially Sanchez depending on how he finishes up. There’s no clear runaway No. 1. Even Britton could have a legitimate case — I haven’t decided on that matter yet

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not opposed to the idea of a reliever winning the Cy Young and Britton has been absurd. Still probably not sufficiently absurd

9:43
Ross: Is Taijuan Walker destined for the bullpen? His secondary pitches are not very good and doesn’t seem to be making a lot of progress.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: He was dealing with a foot problem for a while and he sucked. I think it’s still kind of there and more than anything he needs offseason rest. What he did earlier in the year when he was healthy was too encouraging for the team to shove him into relief.

9:44
j6takish: As fun as it is to rag on guys like Francouer, do you remember when Mark Kotsay got a guaranteed major league deal for like 8 seasons in a row despite not being good since 2004?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Last three-digit wRC+: 2004. Last season played: 2013!

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: That *was* weird. From 2006 on, Kotsay batted 2,368 times, and he posted a -4.6 WAR.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a coach now, implying as a player he was a good clubhouse presence. Very Francoeur-y.

9:47
Alex: Who goes down as the greater player, Trout or Kershaw?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: aw geez

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I have to say Trout but this question is unfair

9:47
Nate: So which Jays pitcher is winning the cy young?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: All of them will split it

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: dammit, my answer should’ve been Kevin Pillar

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: can I go back in time?

9:49
Sapporo: What’s your impression of Gary Sanchez in the few games he’s been up?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: It’s too early to form one, so I’m mostly telling myself over and over to stop seeing him as another Jesus Montero

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: We’ve already seen him clobber a ball or two, but that wasn’t unexpected.

9:51
Ross: For the Mariners squeak in the playoffs what do you think they have to go record wise the rest of the way?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Right now the Orioles are projected to finish about 88-74. So to just tie them, the Mariners would need to go 28-21 (.571; 93-win pace)

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: The worst AL playoff teams the last four years: 86, 88, 92, 93 wins. So realistically the Mariners might need to go something more like 30-19

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Let me take that back — in 2012, the Tigers made it at 88-74. But they won their division, and I was looking at wild cards

9:56
j: How much money has Bautista lost this year with all the injuries / poor performance when healthy?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he was ever going to quite break the bank, not at his age, but I could see him losing about $20-25 million in guarantees. This should all make him easier to negotiate with because his own expectations for himself should be somewhat reduced

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: or at least he should feel a little humbled

9:58
Manny: How much of being a manager is in-game decisions and how much is the psychological/emotional/clubhouse aspect of things? For as long as these managers have been in the game, many of them make what appear to be objectively (or mathematically) boneheaded decisions with relative frequency.

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: It’s almost all about being a leader of people. And more than ever a lot of those decisions are all but taken out of their hands. They still have to make their strategic calls but very clearly baseball hasn’t been selective for the most forward-thinking managers, at least in sabermetric terms. That’s not an accident

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Dusty Baker seems like a good manager because he is a terrific leader. Not so numbers-y. Now, he has gotten sharper as he’s evolved, but he’s still more of a leader than an academic

9:59
Erik: What are the odds that Bryce Harper has already had his best season?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: At 9.5 WAR? I’d say 80-90%

10:00
guest: would any team sign Tebow for anything other than publicity?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Not much to gain from the publicity. He’s never making the majors

10:01
J: Typical AAA hitter in MLB: 75 wRC+, AA: 50, A: 25, pitcher -10, average person -40. Would you agree?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t disagree strongly with anything in here. Maybe A-ball hitters are more like 40-50 wRC+ types, I don’t know. And as for the average person, what’s the wRC+ minimum? They’d be whatever that is.

10:02
Chris: Jeff please make me feel better about my decision to ‘buy low’ on Cutch in a dynasty league

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: You should draw validation from yourself, and not from others

10:04
guest: will any good mlb players be in the olympics?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: I assume not. MLB is too much of a business. If I had to guess, the American team will consist of minor leaguers and maybe some collegiates. There might be a foreign big-leaguer or two who desperately wants to represent his own country. So you might see one or two exceptions made, depending on circumstances

10:09
Bill: Two interesting articles on Kepler last week in Fangraphs seeming to point different directions for him. Could Kepler’s pitch recognition ability account for any of his unexpected power, or does the batted ball/expected power profile, mean that despite advanced pitch recognition he is still not making the type of contact that would lead you to expect more than 15 or so homers in a season. Where do you see his power/average falling

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the problem I have with the pitch-recognition idea: this year, 288 hitters have batted at least 200 times. Kepler ranks sixth-lowest in Z-Swing% – O-Swing%

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Now that doesn’t prove anything. Joe Mauer is even lower! But it suggests some imprecise decision-making. And in terms of exit velocity on balls hit in the air, Kepler’s average ranks 266th out of 336. He’s right by Darwin Barney and Cesar Hernandez

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I think Kepler is an interesting hitter, and the Twins are desperate for players with upside. I’m not convinced yet he’ll become more than a third outfielder. That’s a starter, of course, but not a star

10:12
Andrew: Is it fair to call Danny Duffy an ace at this point?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Well it’s definitely fair to call him the ace of the Royals

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s review some offseason polling: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-you-defined-an-ace/

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: After last year, 41% of the community thought that Noah Syndergaard was an ace. Based on that example, I’d say that Duffy is close but he’s not quite there yet, because he doesn’t have enough of a track record

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: If he stays healthy, I think he’ll earn the label. He’s getting deeper and deeper into games. And after next year he’s a free agent. Big things coming

10:15
jon: In June, August wrote an article on the Cubs historic BABIP suppression. At the time, the Cubs were running a .250 BABIP allowed and an 85 BABIP-. Today, it is .255 BABIP allowed and an 86 BABIP-, which would be the lowest ever. 2014-2015 Royals, who?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: One difference: I’m pretty sure the Cubs’ pitchers deserve a lot of the credit. The Royals had the better defense; the Cubs have the better run prevention

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Cubs pitchers this year have baseball’s second-best hard-hit rate. Between 2014-2015, Royals pitchers ranked 19th. It’s a blunt tool but it’s something

10:17
Guest: what % you give the Mariners to get in the playoffs?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: 35% feels about right

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I like the roster, but the complicating factor is I like a lot of the competing rosters, too

10:19
Chat de Fangraphs : Severino sent back to AAA……do you think he’ll figure out his changeup and eventually become a #2-3?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Actually I think it’s the slider that’s abandoned him

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I still like him enough. He’s a lot better than his ERA

10:22
I am the walrus: With Schwarber and Soler coming back next yr and sharing LF for Cubs, that means less time in LF for Bryant and Zobrist, which really cuts into Baez infield PT. Even if Soler is traded that still leaves Schwaber getting 75-80% of OF PT. So do you think Cubs look to sell on Baez in offseason?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I could see them either transitioning Baez to CF, or exchanging him for a CF

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: He should be athletic enough to make the move but maybe they’d feel more comfortable with experience

10:23
Larry: How much of Zunino’s success is SSS and how much is him actually showing a fundamental change in approach/ability? If it’s the latter, does that reflect well on the developmental capacity of the new regime or is it more the case of a very talented player getting much-needed time in the minors?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: He still has a lot of swing and miss in his game, and he probably always will. He definitely does seem better at laying off pitches out of the zone low, and that’s important. I think it’s beyond obvious that he was rushed, and he got a lot of different advice along the way from different people. I think his improvement reflects well on the front office’s ability to be patient. Mostly I suspect this was Zunino figuring things out for himself — remember that, as a rookie, his approach wasn’t bad. But the organization would’ve had to work hard to get him into a good headspace

10:25
Scoopski Potatoes: I’m a Yankees fan……tell me something bad about Benintendi?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not nearly as good as Mookie Betts

10:25
Erik: Aaron Nola had a horrible ERA-FIP differential. Does he have any signs of being the type of pitcher for whom that’s a recurring theme, or is he a surefire positive ERA regression candidate?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to be fine. Really good, even, when he’s healthy

10:27
ChopChop: Way too early ROY Candidates for 2017? As well, who would be some dark horses?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: It looks like Benintendi is probably going to exceed the at-bat threshold this year, so he’s out

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Alex Reyes or JP Crawford would be excellent NL candidates

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: It’s relatively dry in the AL, looks like, but depending on how much he pitches this year I could see Joe Musgrove having a strong opportunity

10:31
Jays fan: What do you think Bautista’s next contract will look like?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say…three guaranteed years, maybe a fourth-year vesting option

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Alex Gordon wound up at $18 million per year over four, and he took what was perceived as a discount. Also, he was more of an all-around type, while Bautista still has the bat. So figure Bautista gets at *least* $20 million a year, and probably a bit more

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: So I’ll go with 3/$65m with an option that could push it to 4/$80m

10:35
ChopChop: What Olympic event would the average MLB Player be best at? What about some of the superstars?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know anything about handball but maybe handball

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Or, beginning in 2020, baseball

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: They’d be really good at baseball

10:38
Homer: After the season ends, Granderson is owed 15 mil for the last year of his deal. Do you think the mets will move him this offseason? How difficult would it be for them to move grandy and his 1/15- would they have to eat any money?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I could see him ending up somewhere like with the Orioles or White Sox

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’d draw much of a return, but at the same time in that case I don’t think they’d have to eat too much

10:40
ChopChop: Follow up, what Olympian would be best in the MLB?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: If you gave him enough training I bet Phelps would achieve some pretty good perceived velocity

10:41
Q-Ball: At this point in the year, what team to you has been the biggest disappointment? And why?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: It’s the Mets, and it’s bad luck and health. Pitchers get hurt and that’s just a part of it, but the lineup has been horrible with runners in scoring position and it’s cost them ballgames

10:43
Toki: What it going on with the Mets? Were they playing above their potential or are they really this bad?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Injured pitchers. That’s bad. Injured Duda. That’s bad. Injured Wright. That’s bad. Injured Cespedes. That’s bad. You talk about the last time that needed a guy like Conforto to fall apart…

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: *team

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I know that every team struggles with injuries and it’s not a complete excuse, but the Mets have been hit awfully hard. You mix in the poor offensive timing and you get a mediocre result

10:45
CamdenWarehouse: So you drop a bomb like Harper isn’t as good as we thought and then don’t do your normal chat time so we can squirm for a week?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I did hop on the EW podcast last week to chat about this!

10:45
Roadhog: Madson for Puig looking more likely?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Something for Puig. Anything for Puig. I don’t know where he’ll go, but he’ll go somewhere.

10:46
Zach: What type of deal will Danny Duffy get in FA? Do the Royals have any chance of keeping him at this point?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: No way to know what he’ll get yet. He still has another 7.5 months of regular-season pitching. Next year will determine whether he gets $30 million or $150 million

10:47
Jeff’s Friend: Two relatively equal teams, one with an extremely top heavy lineup and the other with a balanced 1-9, which do you choose for just this year?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take balance

10:47
Guest: Felix Odds to get in the hof?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: 40%. Like with McCutchen, the odds were much greater before this year

10:48
Q-Ball: If Mike Trout wasn’t Mike Trout, would the Angels be the worst team in baseball right now?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Very very close

10:48
Larry: What team(s) do you get the most/least questions about?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Most about the Mariners and Blue Jays, probably. I’d say fewest about the…Rockies?

10:49
BK: Devon Travis is pacing a >6 WAR for his first 162 games as a big leaguer. Presuming health, what’s his ceiling?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: This

10:49
termel sledge: does A-Rod’s shabby treatment this week increase the odds he ends up playing somewhere else? this question is almost entirely wishful

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know why anyone would want him

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: You can’t rule out the Marlins just because whatever, but he doesn’t provide value

10:50
Dr. Met: Brad posted that max-effort swingers like Carlos Gomez get old faster… is there anything to that? Is Cutch on that rocketship ballistic descent?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Max-effort swingers probably get old faster when they have alleged hip problems

10:50
Chris: Is Tyler O’Neill going to become an impact bat in the majors?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, but he’s got a way better chance now than he did before

10:51
Q-Ball: Are the Mets toast? Or just starting to turn golden-brown?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: On the outside looking in. They’re not toast, but on the other hand, I really like toast

10:52
Mike T.: Hello Jeff – in a fictitious world, the Blue Jays sign Tim Tebow and make him a starting outfielder tonight. Can you hilariously predict what might happen?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: He strikes out once on three pitches and then tries to bunt a lot

10:52
JKD: Anthony Rendon: April .242/.310/.286. Since: .275/.363/.489 (basically his 2014 line of .287/.351/.473). Fair to say he’s basically back to being the player he was? (also – very underappreciated source of production in Nats’ lineup during Harper’s post-April slump)

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Rendon is basically back to being a 5-win player. He’ll never get recognized for it on a roster with that many higher-profile names, but he’s excellent and 26

10:53
JD15: Astros just called up OF Teoscar Hernandez. How will this affect Bregman’s PT once Gurriel is called up?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: That’ll depend on how Bregman hits, but this could be worse news for Marisnick and Rasmus

10:54
Dusty Rizzo: What would a Bryce extension look like now?? Not looking like the blank-check-write-your-own-salary type player he was last year, but he’s going to be a 26 year old free agent with an impressive track record

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: You start with the Heyward terms and then you bump up to account for more offensive value than defensive value.

10:55
Neslon: Youve probably done some hiking in brand new hiking boots. Ever get a blister that lasted over a month?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: No, that sounds terrible

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Moleskin, man

10:55
NYTT: How good is Freddie Freeman? He was so bad early, but now his wRC+ and wOBA are right in line with past seasons.

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Very good

10:57
Jim: Looks like Leonys Martin has been about replacement level since he got hurt. Do you think this is more a matter of regression or coming back before having fully recovered?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: I think he did come back too fast in June. He looked mostly healthy and acceptable in July, but now he’s in a presumably unrelated slump. I think he’s probably a true talent 90-100 wRC+ bat with quality defense when right

10:57
Q-Ball: Is there hope for Jason Heyward long-term? Or did the Cubs just set $180 mil on fire?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Still hope. The physical skills haven’t left and Heyward has had deep ruts before. But this is very troubling

10:58
Sonny: Is a fair comp for Zunino a better receiving Iannetta? Similar 3TO hitters

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Iannetta’s way better at swinging at strikes instead of balls

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Zunino’s way better at hitting baseball hard

10:59
Henry: Had this discussion with a friend recently — probability of HOF for Kinsler and Beltre?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: I think that Beltre is basically in at this point. I’d be surprised if he didn’t make it pretty fast

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Kinsler has a much, much tougher road. He got kind of a late start and he’s never been dominant. He’ll need to age with considerable grace

11:00
Zonk: To what do you attribute the power surge this year in baseball?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: I have to think the baseball

11:01
Bruce: What about a Soler/Puig needs-a-change-of-scenery trade?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Actually I don’t think either team would really want to do that

11:03
Houzer : should the Tigers exercise the 9M option on Maybin? Or go back to Austin Jackson for a discount?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: There’s no point in starting Austin Jackson. I’d be willing to pick up Maybin’s option even though it wouldn’t excite me to do so

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Would be a little interesting to see if the Tigers gave Carlos Gomez a pillow contract

11:04
Bernie: Great run for the Mets as kings of NY baseball, huh?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: At least they could have their pitchers back and healthy in 2017. Maybe this is a blip!

11:05
Guest: How much of dick is Joe Girardi?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: This week be damned, I think Girardi deserves more credit for the long-term way he’s handled the Alex Rodriguez situation

11:05
Zonk: Last year, Maddon batted the pitcher 8th alot. This year, mostly 9th, but I’ve noticed many other teams are now batting the pitcher 8th. What’s better, statistically? Does it really matter much?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t matter nearly as much as you’d think based on the volume of articles written about it

11:07
Pennsy: Jayson Werth: best megacontract of the last decade?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: The first A-Rod deal was pretty awesome

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: So was the first Miguel Cabrera deal

11:07
Bernie: How is it that we could have stats to manage every possible defensive metric yet have no rudimentary way of quantitatively measuring managers?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Managers don’t perform on the field

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Even if you wanted to do something like compare player performance to projected player performance, you still have to keep in mind the potential influence of the manager on projections for incumbents. It’s so difficult!

11:09
Guest: if you were a mlb coach would you play arod all week and 3rd base for his last game

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: I’d ask him what he wants and go from there

11:09
joe: Should the Mariners look to trade Cruz this offseason? How do Cruz and Vogelbach fit comfortably in a lineup together, given they should both not be in the field?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: You’re not going to get killed by first-base defense

11:10
Chris: Odor is the second best non-Altuve second baseman going forward… right?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. Hard to give that to a .301 OBP

11:11
Zonk: What team do you LEAST want to face in a playoff series right now, and why?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs, because they’re the best baseball team

11:11
Bernie: Is the .500ish deadline team having a “yard sale” (ie Mariners, Yankees) and continuing to be competitive the new thing?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty big difference between selling Mike Montgomery and Wade Miley, and selling Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, and Carlos Beltran

11:11
Justin: Holliday likely out for the season. Should Cardinals go hard for Gomez? Or just see if their young guys can figure it out?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Gomez is worth it

11:12
Guest: would have arod gotten a farewell tour like ortiz or jeter?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: No

11:12
joe: What’s the most thought-provoking question you’ve gotten in a chat? Or, if not the most, one you can remember thinking about much later

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Probably this one

11:12
Brad: Do the Dodgers have the highest upside in regards to pitching staff next year? Kershaw, Urias, Hill, Maeda, De Leon; with Jansen as closer and Wood, McCarthy in Pen. Yadier Alvarez looking like a legit arm as well and could help in pen next year.

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Well, Hill is a free agent

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Mets still have crazy upside

11:14
Q-Ball: Question on the Prince Fielder, roster-space thing. I get that they may have to keep him on the roster to meet the obligations of the insurance policy, but couldn’t they reach a settlement all around to avoid that? The insurance company and Prince don’t care about the roster spot, I bet they can get paid a little more to settle and make the problem go away.

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know nearly enough about the ins and outs of this stuff but there is a wonderful opportunity here to maybe get some insight into how teams financially value a single 40-man roster spot

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: When this sort of thing happened with Albert Belle, the Orioles didn’t negotiate, and they wound up keeping him on the 40-man roster to keep getting the insurance money. Maybe times have changed

11:16
joe: Is Kyle Seager still underappreciated or if you sign a contract for one hundred million dollars is that impossible

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: Not underappreciated in Seattle, but definitely underappreciated outside of Seattle

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/12/16 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Felix at 40% to get in the HoF. I’ve lost all perspective on reality.

* and, no, this is not a criticism of Jeff Sullivan, but a recognition that maybe I think Felix has been better for longer than I thought —> to the Felix stats page… nanananana….