Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/19/16

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: This has been awfully inconsiderate of me

Bork: Hello, friend!

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

Rick Roll: The rick roll has not started yet

Jeff Sullivan: nor shall it ever

BJOGC: So, draft picks are always prone to hindsight but I definitely remember a lot of first guessing the Astros picking Mark Appel over Kris Bryant. That is going to go down as a Justin Verlander/Matt Bush level gaffe

Jeff Sullivan: Matt Bush has a sub-3 ERA!

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine anything is going to top the Mike Trout draft any time soon but, yeah, to whatever extent it’s fair to second-guess these things, that decision looks awful. Bryant is one of the five or ten best players in the game. Appel is…I don’t even know what he’s doing

Jeff Sullivan: The easy takeaway is, when conflicted, take the position player! It’s not actually that easy in real life, but never believe in anything when scouts talk about a pitcher being “safe”. They aren’t safe

Rick Roll: Why might statcast disagree with hittrackeronline.com?

Jeff Sullivan: Statcast is based on actual observed information. Hit Tracker calculates its own estimates based on hang time and batted-ball destination

Jeff Sullivan: Hit Tracker is great, but now that we have Statcast it is of slightly more limited utility

Dustin: When we talk about how certain teams ‘don’t have the prospects’ to get a player like Mike Trout, what are we really talking about? For a team with a really thin farm system, if they went to the Angels and said ‘take literally everyone you want out of our system. Merge the best of our system with the best of your system and return everyone left back to us, but we get Mike Trout’… Is that really an offer the Angels would turn down, even if it was one of the worst farm systems in baseball? Like, if the Orioles offered this to the Angels, wouldn’t this be an interesting proposition?

Jeff Sullivan: Prospect quantity is only so valuable. Sure, any number of perceived non-prospects could develop into something useful, but you’d have to be able to identify those guys ahead of time and that’s not easy. If it were, they’d be prospects! Real prospect value is mostly tied up in the guys on lists. That value grows exponentially as players are ranked higher and higher. If you don’t have high-ranking players, then you just won’t be able to interest another team

Bork: Is the Brewers’ rebuild quietly going a little faster than expected, like if you squint read hard and imagine Arcia, Villar, Santana, and Braun having good seasons, could they be .500 next year?

Jeff Sullivan: You have to really squint. And you have to look at this year’s numbers and subtract, like, Lucroy and Jeffress and so on. This is not to say they aren’t doing a good job. I like their rebuild a lot, and they’ve done well with pretty much all of their moves. But it’s still a painfully slow process. I’d think .500 in two years, at least

Jeff Sullivan: And some of the premium players on the farm are relatively high-risk. They could take a few years to get established, if they ever do

Jeff Sullivan: While I’m somewhat on the subject I will note that I’ve become unusually interested in Keon Broxton. He hits the ball really really hard

Jeff Sullivan: (when he hits the ball)

Erik: What contenders are best built for the unique elements of playoff baseball? Which contenders have a roster more suited for regular season ball?

Jeff Sullivan: I like the Giants’ ability to make contact. I like the depth of the Rangers’ bullpen. The Cubs are great at everything. Now that the Nationals have Melancon they’re in excellent shape. The Red Sox also don’t strike out much and if they get Kimbrel going again, they look good, because they wouldn’t have to worry about the back of the starting rotatoin

Eric: Brad Miller has 25 home runs. What is happening?

Jeff Sullivan: He’s a good hitter. He’s always had the tools to be a good hitter. Anyone who’s ever worked with him has expressed confidence that he’d become a good hitter eventually.

Jeff Sullivan: It’s a damn good thing he’s doing this, too, because his defense is unreliable

Rick Roll: Between the Tigers and Orioles, you think this team will make the playoffs (answer in the form of a question)

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Orioles sneak in

Da Bum: Has any team had so much young starters do well upon promotion but get hurt as the Mets have? Early 2000s Cubs come to mind but even they weren’t at this level of snake bitten. Furthermore, if you’re the Mets what do you do from here?

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say this for the Mets — while Harvey is out, and while Matz and Syndergaard are dealing with their own issues, both Matz and Syndergaard have still been able to take regular turns. And all things considered, the numbers show they’ve been good.

Jeff Sullivan: So the pitching injuries haven’t been the absolutely crippling ones. Now, if I’m the Mets, I’m just looking to regroup. It’s not like this version of the roster is toast. Yeah, 2016 probably won’t work out, but you still have all the arms for next season

Jeff Sullivan: deGrom is there. Matz could and should be healthy again. Syndergaard could and should be healthy again. Harvey should return at some point, if not in the spring. Wheeler could be back as well. There’s your five. It’s all still plenty exciting

Travis: Is Freeman’s power surge real? Can an argument be made that he’s a top 3 1B in baseball?

Jeff Sullivan: He’s hitting fly balls a little harder. He’s also hitting more of them, with reduced contact. He’s made the fairly typical exchange. His actual wRC+ is right in line with where we’d expect it to be so it’s not like Freeman has taken this massive step forward. He’s just changed who he is a little bit. He remains a terrific everyday 1B

carrotjuice: Do you think rSB should be part of pitcher WAR?

Jeff Sullivan: Hadn’t actually thought about it before. Now that I do, I lean toward yes.

Jeff Sullivan: I understand why it wouldn’t be included, but since the running game is mostly about the pitcher, and not the catcher, it wouldn’t hurt to fold it in

Potus Redding: AL EAST x 3 in playoffs?

Jeff Sullivan: Looking like it

Bork: What’s your best guess for the solution for Syndergaard? Work on his delivery in the offseason? Or does he just need a better move to 1st?

Jeff Sullivan: A better move would be helpful — Cueto has way quicker feet. But even with a good move, runners will be able to distinguish between a pickoff and a pitch. And with current timing, when Syndergaard goes to the plate, it’s really easy to run on him

Jeff Sullivan: The solution basically has to be a lower leg kick. That’s probably a very difficult thing to try to improve on the fly. It’s an offseason project

Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head I’d say the Mets might establish a 2017 goal of 20 or 25 steals allowed

Stuafoo: Name one thing in baseball rarer than Bartolo Colon drawing a walk

Jeff Sullivan: Bartolo Colon drawing two walks

Steve: I read your article this morning on Noah Sydergaard’s trouble with baserunners. There was a comparison to Chris Tillman and how effective Tillman has been at controlling baserunners with the use of a slide step. Do you think Syndergaard would experience any sort of drop in velocity if he adopted a slide step? Just curious, do you think there is a significant enough velocity change between the windup and the stretch as well?

Jeff Sullivan: Just to use one example this year, Tillman has had an average fastball of 92.6 with the bases empty, and 93.0 with a runner on first. So depending on how much that means, it doesn’t look like there’s experienced velocity loss

Jeff Sullivan: The bigger issue is general mechanical disruption. If you’re not used to a slide-step, you can end up speeding up your whole delivery and you lose command. You might also increase injury risk as a consequence. There’s a way to do it an retain all your arm speed, but it has to be worked on carefully. It’s probably why Syndergaard hasn’t improved over the summer

Crusty Juggler: Hiking while going commando: the only way or the best way?

Jeff Sullivan: It’s definitely not the only way

Jeff Sullivan: Strongly recommended for hot days. Strongly discouraged for snowy nights.

Jeff Sullivan: And never go commando when glissading

Josh: Eduardo Rodriguez has looked like a completely different pitcher over the last month. Do you think he’s simply solved his pitch tipping issues, or are there other significant adjustments that have led to his success?

Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that — phone call

Jeff Sullivan: It looks to me like Rodriguez has returned with a modified slider, which he’s thrown with far greater confidence. He’s achieved more consistent release points and he’s slightly lowered his arm, and he’s better now about keeping pitches away from hitters. I’m sure the first half was some mix of poor performance and horrible confidence. He looks strong again and I’m a believer again

2-D: Does Brad Miller need a full time position on defense or should he take the Zobrist route?

Jeff Sullivan: I’m a big fan of the Zobrist route, and related to that, I would also be interested in seeing more of Miller in the outfield. He’s been pretty annoyed by getting bumped from short, but once that blows over, the Rays will have programmed in some open-mindedness

BJOGC: Jeff, we always hear about good clubhouse guys/bad clubhouse guys and we always wonder how teams value guys who are jerks but can play. Hasn’t Yunnel Escobar sort of established “replacement level for assholes” as being around 2.5WAR?

Jeff Sullivan: Escobar is a really fascinating case study. A few years ago I heard worse things about him than I’d heard about any other player. Team executives were legitimately afraid of the man. He’s clearly floated around, but he’s found a home now, and he’s performing, and I haven’t heard much of anything negative for a while.

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe these guys can be fixed! Or, at least, managed. If Escobar can find a home, most troublemakers can

Northsider: Before his debut, Kris Bryant was getting a lot of Troy Glaus comps. How do you feel about that comp almost 2 years later?

Jeff Sullivan: The offensive profiles are still really similar. And early-career Glaus was fantastic. But Glaus was maybe a little bit less of an athlete, and he ran into injury problems that slowed him down. Bryant, I’d think, should age better

Jeff Sullivan: Glaus wound up at 34 career WAR but he was more than halfway there by age-25.

mookie best: Neat article this morning Jeff. I was wondering, relatedly, about identifying pitchers to stream steals against. Is there a steals-against leaderboard on these digital pages? Or steal-rate against. Thanks for the insight.

Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016-basesituation-pitching.shtml

J: So all indications point to Altuve hitting the ball harder than ever with improved discipline and he’s put himself into the MVP conversation and might even be the favorite since the Angels aren’t winning. How is this for real and what do you think he is moving forward? The guy nearly has as many walks as strikeouts with a sky high BABIP plus power! Oh and he’s thrown in 26 SB.

Jeff Sullivan: I still don’t really trust the magnitude of Altuve’s power — he’s below-average in terms of FB/LD exit velocity. Around names like Starlin Castro and Yangervis Solarte. That being said, Altuve has proven he can hit opportunistic homers, and he’s also proven he can hit everything else. His hands are amazing, so his plate coverage is amazing, and he can run like the dickens. Not much he can’t do. It’s wonderful to have Altuve and Betts blossoming at the same time

Brandon: Is Cingrani going to hold onto the closer role all season?

Jeff Sullivan: I have genuinely never thought about it

Jim Lonborg: Is Tazawa done? Like, seriously done? He kinda looks it.

Jeff Sullivan: Command awful. Velocity dropping. I don’t think he’s *done* done, not given how good he was earlier, but the best-case scenario is he’s got a fit of dead arm

Mike T.: Jeff – How are you and Dave going to split the driving?

Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t worked that out yet. It’ll be Dave’s vehicle but he’s also driving an awful lot before I even meet up with him.

Jeff Sullivan: I might insist on driving from Kansas City to Denver just as a mechanism of staying awake

carl: Chances that Corey Knebel takes over at closer? pretty small, right?

Jeff Sullivan: sure

Brandon: Who are the top 5 players heading into 2017?

Jeff Sullivan: Trout, Betts, Kershaw, Donaldson, Bryant

Jeff Sullivan: Sub in Machado for one of the last four if you want

Paul: Are Strand Rates useful in analysing a pitcher? How much control over them do pitchers have?

Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers have some control and better strikeout guys will manage higher strand rates than others. There’s a huge luck element though. Better to examine a pitcher’s splits and ability to hold runners

Andrew: How many simulations of the season from this point forward would you have to run to find one where the Braves win the NL East? Is there a computer capable of running that many simulations before the sun explodes?

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s put it this way: the Braves are 27.5 games out, and we give them 0.0% division odds

Jeff Sullivan: The Marlins are 9.5 games out, and we give them 0.1% division odds

Jeff Sullivan: The right answer to your question is probably somewhere between 10,000,000 and 100,000,000

Brandon: What is your favorite Olympic event to watch?

Jeff Sullivan: Hockey

Rick Roll: how many friends do you have that aren’t into baseball?

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much none of the friends I’ve made in Portland are into baseball. Met a lot of them through rock climbing and there’s not much in the way of overlapping interests there. Also even the friends in Seattle I met *through* baseball have basically fallen out of love with it on account of the Mariners

Jeff Sullivan: Matthew Carruth and I, for example, bonded over the Mariners. Now we never talk about them!

Jim Lonborg: Which career trajectory is more surprising: Ryan Howard or Allen Craig? Relatedly, are Mike Carp-esque careers more common than I think, and we just forget about guys like that? I never thought he’d be a star, but I didn’t think he’d be out of baseball by 30.

Jeff Sullivan: The Craig one is kind of mystifying. I mean, with both guys, you could try to point to injuries as being the determining factors. Howard, for his part, looked like an old player even when he was a young player.

Jeff Sullivan: As for Carp and Carp-like players, he was an unathletic sort with a half-decent hit tool. You can use those guys when they’re healthy and they hit for some power, but as soon as anything goes wrong, there are too many negatives. They don’t give you much roster flexibility

Brandon: Is speed walking a real sport?

Jeff Sullivan: Everything I know about it I learned from Malcolm In The Middle. So I guess yes?

Erik: Dansby Swanson and JP Crawford have similar ages, similar pedigrees, and similar stats, and their teams are at similar points in the rebuilding cycle. Yet Swanson was an August promotion while rumors are Crawford will have to wait til May or June. Which team played it right? Or are the situations more different than they appear?

Jeff Sullivan: That depends on your fan perspective. From the organizational standpoint, it makes sense to keep Crawford down, and he hasn’t exactly lit Triple-A on fire. It’s not like the Phillies are going to contend for the playoffs in 2017. The Braves, meanwhile, think they could be competitive as soon as next season. There’s the whole new-stadium thing. And if they figure Swanson will be a part of it, then it makes sense to let him get his feet wet now, when the pressure is off and the games are irrelevant

Jeff Sullivan: It’s exciting to have Swanson up. If he struggles down the line, he could always be demoted again to pause that service-time clock. So nothing has yet been settled. But I think if the Braves are optimistic that Swanson will help fuel a playoff team a year from now, well, they’re probably alone

The Cincinnati Kid: What do the Rangers do with Gallo in the offseason? Does he get 1B?

Jeff Sullivan: That seems the most likely course. Moreland will be gone and Gallo should be ready.

Jeff Sullivan: And not that they wanted Fielder to go away or anything, but his pseudo-retirement does clear up some questions

Lee: I have Addison Russell, Alex Bregman, Trevor Story and Dansby Swanson all on my 15 team keeper league roster. I don’t have a question.

Jeff Sullivan: Who would’ve guessed that Story would become arguably the best of all of them!

PB&Js: How good is Michael Fulmer? His front-line stats are incredible and he’s a near lock for AL ROY, but his peripherals suggest a little regression. He’s only 23 though, so may be countered to some degree with natural improvement. What kind of numbers do you see him posting over the next 2-3 years?

Jeff Sullivan: I really like the way he’s going — since the break, he has five walks and 31 whiffs in 43.1 innings. Lots of grounders, good changeup, high strike totals.

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a perfect comp at all but I can see him as sort of a Jordan Zimmermann type. Real solid No. 2, not quite a classic ace but generally reliable

J: Going into the season I thought Sale was easily the CY favorite but now he’s allowing more contact than he ever has although his BABIP has come back down after going over .300 for the first time last year. Is this the new Sale?

Jeff Sullivan: My understand is this has been intentional — the White Sox have had him scale back a bit to try to be more efficient and preserve his arm. It comes with upsides and downsides.

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the old Sale is necessarily gone. Maybe he comes back next season. This version is still really really good

Dan: Despite missing all this time, Kershaw is still the current leader in RA9 war and FIP war. Should he still be the cy young?

Jeff Sullivan: I’m wrestling with this. Might write about it next week. Clayton Kershaw, very clearly, is the best pitcher in the world. There’s no question about it. He’s going to have missed at least 10 starts or so, putting extra pressure on the depth and the bullpen. Part of a pitcher’s job is to be available to pitch. So my answer is I don’t know yet 🙁

Josh: Can you explain why Correa ranks 4th in BRef oWAR (ahead of Bryant, Betts, Murphy, etc.) but is only 30th in fangraphs offense stat? The fangraphs ranking makes a lot more sense in light of his wrc, ops, and basic counting stats- what is BRef giving so much value too?

Jeff Sullivan: If I’m reading this correctly, Baseball-Reference folds a positional adjustment into that oWAR stat. So Correa is getting a boost for being a shortstop, even though that’s more of a defensive thing. FanGraphs doesn’t do that

BigChief: No question, but since Mike Trout’s first full season, he has posted a higher WAR than the Angles Starting Pitching. That poor, amazing man.

Jeff Sullivan: I really can’t stand the argument that the Angels have wasted Mike Trout’s prime. No they haven’t. He’s played for them every day! That’s a blessing!

EvanC: Better HOF chance: Kinsler or Pedroia?

Jeff Sullivan: They have almost identical numbers and Pedroia is a year younger. I’ll give Pedroia the slight edge here just because he’s been more of a conspicuous personality. Also, while this is annoying, Pedroia has been part of two World Series winners, while Kinsler has been part of two World Series losers. That’s going to show up again

Lee: What do the parameters of a Brian McCann trade in the offseason look like?

Jeff Sullivan: What’s left here, 2/$34m with a 2019 option?

Jeff Sullivan: McCann wouldn’t get that as a free agent. Maybe he’d get…2/$20m? So the Yankees would throw in some money, and they’d get a Double-A project or two in return. From the Braves, probably

Geoff: Does Brad Miller have a future as a corner infielder? He’s looked brutal at SS, but his power this year seems to be real. (Also, bad platoon splits…)

Jeff Sullivan: Can’t really see him at third since his arm chased him away from short. He can handle first but he’s a better athlete than that. Gotta figure he moves around

2-D: Does Terry Collins deserve to be fired?

Jeff Sullivan: Not for anything we know publicly

Jeff Sullivan: The Mets have been devastated by injuries and horrible offensive timing. Don’t think that’s on Collins

Tony: Should the Mariners try and see if Edgar can fix Gomez?

Jeff Sullivan: Probably can’t fix him in a month and a half

Erik: Should the Phillies have pulled an A-Rod on Ryan Howard? Should the Yankees have treated A-Rod like the Phillies did with Howard? Or did both organizations act correctly?

Jeff Sullivan: There have been, let’s say, different urgencies. The Yankees have always been trying to win. As Howard has cratered, so have the Phillies, and they never really came up with a superior 1B option. I get why Howard has stuck around. I probably would’ve cut him at some point myself, but some other young 1B hasn’t been knocking down the door

D: If Kershaw makes it back this season, can we expect the full-strength version of him?

Jeff Sullivan: I’d caution against that, just because he’s probably lost some of his stamina

Jimmy: What would you say to the Reds fans who already want to throw the towel in on Cody Reed?

Jeff Sullivan: Kudos to you guys for remaining passionate in spite of the circumstances

Kimball: Manfred mentioned the possibility of banning shifting a while ago, and most people gave him the benefit of the doubt that he’d realize the evidence doesn’t support it, but now he’s brought it up again. Is there any good explanation?

Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t bothered to read the latest round of quotes but I still don’t see it. It doesn’t make good sense. Offensive levels now are fine, and if Manfred is afraid that the home runs will go away, well, there’s already some kind of agreement to raise the bottom of the strike zone. Just do that and everything will be fine

greg: Do you think there’s any chance Heyward becomes a part-time or late-inning player during the playoffs?

Jeff Sullivan: I could see them maybe sitting him against lefties

Barnard: Is there any rule stopping a team from giving an extension to a Rule 5 Draft pick? Seems like a team could extend a guy for just the right amount to make him unfavorable to his former team, then pass him through waivers and outright him

Jeff Sullivan: That’s a good question. Like, if you immediately sign a Rule 5 guy for two years and $2 million or whatever, maybe that’s enough of a deterrent

Jeff Sullivan: Interesting!

Dae-Ho Lee: So, uh… Dae-Ho Lee kinda sucks.

Jeff Sullivan: Everyone deserves a chance to adjust back to adjustments made, but yes, of late he’s had no answer for offspeed stuff

Dae-Ho Lee: Is the thin rotation what keeps the Mariners out of the playoffs?

Jeff Sullivan: Or, in turn, the pressure that puts on an unreliable bullpen

Ryan Feierabend: Hi Jeff, is there a reason Felix’s dip in release point doesn’t get talked about much? It sure seems to correlate with his struggles. Intentional mechanical adjustment, or sign of something worse?

Jeff Sullivan: It has been somewhat pronounced: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=433587&b_hand=-1&gFilt=regular&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=z0&s_type=16&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=08/19/2016

Jeff Sullivan: Especially with the secondary stuff. His arm has dropped some and I wonder if that’s made it a little easier to tell his pitches apart

Jeff Sullivan: Now, the changeup is still good. And last year the curveball was really good. This year it is not! There are tweaks to be made, absolutely

Erik: How can the organization that drafted Mike Trout be so bad at acquiring and developing prospects? Could Trout have been even better if drafted by the Cardinals or Giants?

Jeff Sullivan: While I know what you’re getting at, realistically I can’t see how Mike Trout could be any better than he is

Jeff Sullivan: The Angels have been hurt pretty bad by pitcher injuries. Richards, Heaney, Tropeano, Skaggs — that’s most of a pretty solid big-league rotation, to mix with Shoemaker. On the position-player side, things have been bleak, but they did succeed with Calhoun, so that’s something. Cron has shown progress

HUNGRY: Manfred has casually mentioned limiting the number of pitching changes and now limiting the number of defensive shifts. Whats next? Limiting the number of home runs by a team in game like slow pitch softball?

Jeff Sullivan: There probably is something to be done about pitching changes. Nothing extreme. I don’t think there’s anything worth doing about shifts

Kimball: Are you really driving across the country with Cameron?

Jeff Sullivan: Sort of. I’ll meet him in Kansas City — he’ll drive there himself.

Jeff Sullivan: But we have been friends for like a decade, and I don’t even have any real work guilt to speak of since I’m taking time off work to travel with my boss

El Jefe: Is Gary Sanchez one of the top 10 catchers in baseball right now? HYYYYPE

Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: he even looks like a pretty good pitch-framer!

the yankee ginger: after watching sanchez and judge play – are they playing above where you think they will play going forward? on par?

Jeff Sullivan: Each of them has a four-digit OPS. They are not superstars.

Northsider: I’ve heard a lot of talk lately about the need for advanced stats on tagging players. Wouldn’t this stat be more dependent on the throw to the player rather than the actual tag?

Jeff Sullivan: Seems that way. Everyone tags more or less the same. The biggest issue is where the baseball arrives.

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the argument is really for having sensors to detect when a tag is and is not made

Jerry DiPoto: Can the Mariners make the playoffs? What has to happen? What is optimal bullpen alignment when Tony Zych and Steve Cishek return

Jeff Sullivan: Of course they can make the playoffs. They need a healthy Paxton and Walker, and they could use bullpen reinforcements. But nothing crazy has to happen. They just need to win a few games they probably shouldn’t have won

The Boat: Can Pittsburgh fix Ivan Nova? With a strong finish, he seems like he could be a surprisingly strong option in a weak market.

Jeff Sullivan: Already, he hasn’t walked a single batter as a Pirate, and his zone rate is through the roof. Trusting his changeup a lot more. There’s something going on there

Gary: Leon is hitting the shit out of the ball. I know his projections suck but do you think there’s actually something there? Like he’s an above average hitter.

Jeff Sullivan: He’s really proving something. He’s still the best hitter in baseball as of today if you lower the minimum enough. I buy him as a 90-100 wRC+ hitter

jono: Which current player has earned the most money, deserved the money they made, and won’t make the Hall of Fame? Matt Holliday is my vote.

Jeff Sullivan: Holliday is a good pick. Chase Utley would be in there somewhere. We’ll see where Votto ends up when his deal ends if the world doesn’t end first

The Boat: Since the SP market is so bad this winter, what SPs on total non-contenders might get moved? Desclafani, Brewers or Rays guys, etc. any ideas?

Jeff Sullivan: A lot of the rumors will be the same as what we just saw. Sale stuff, Archer stuff, Gray stuff, etc

Brandon: How much (if any) has Lewis Brinson’s stock fallen this year with his bad first half, injury, and now back on the DL?

Jeff Sullivan: It’s clearly fallen, but not so far that he couldn’t be a centerpiece for an excellent player. He still has a high floor because of his defense and athleticism

Derek: If you’re Jason Heyward, do you try a completely new swing? His current approach just beats the ball into the ground, and as he ages he’ll naturally lose bat speed. He’s really bad now with good bad speed.

Jeff Sullivan: He’s been tweaking his swing over and over for years. I expect that, come the winter, he’ll have some kind of overhaul. Nothing dramatic to be done today

Mark L: Who’s your top 5 AL CY Young contenders?

Jeff Sullivan: Just wrote that up yesterday. Some hodgepodge with Kluber, Sale, Quintana, Sanchez, Duffy…

JoshP: Piggybacking off of your article this morning. Syndergaard has a 2.76 ERA and a 2.23 FIP. Not knowing what factors are considered for FIP, how much of that 0.53 difference can be attributed to the inability to control the running game, as opposed to the Mets being the Mets on defense?

Jeff Sullivan: I think you can just look at the statistic I cited in the article. Through 140 innings, he’s at -6 stolen-base runs

Jeff Sullivan: It’s the equivalent of giving up an extra three or four homers

Jeff Sullivan: Just, you know, not all at once

Jeremy: After a few years of statcast data, it would be interesting to look back and try to “guess” when a player was suffering a decline in performance from injury, then go back and injury records and see if that was indeed the case, see how accurate your predictions were and try to make some kind of model for noticing if a player was potentially playing injured? More useful for fantasy than real life maybe

Jeff Sullivan: I think people are kind of already trying this, at least on a case-by-case basis. Petriello has written about how Statcast can indicate injury. With pitchers, I think we could already do much of the same stuff with PITCHf/x, but Statcast helps to shed light on hitters

Jeff Sullivan: Like, there’s talk that Bryce Harper has an injured shoulder. You can see that in the data if you look for it

Comin’s and Goins: Is Boise a stopping point, or are you going to be pushing for the finish line by then?

Jeff Sullivan: Winston-Salem –> Louisville –> Kansas City –> Denver –> Salt Lake City –> southeast Oregon for a little camping –> Bend

Bryan in Boise: Which are the worst run MLB teams in your opinion?

Jeff Sullivan: Diamondbacks

Dr Q: Article Idea: What would an ideal projected 2020 Olympic USA baseball team look like?

Jeff Sullivan: …nothing like how the team will actually look, because it won’t have big-leaguers on it

Nate: What’s your take on Turner’s development since his call up? The guy has looked quite solid as their leadoff man

Jeff Sullivan: At some point I’d like to see him walk, but he’s really helped to plug up a hole

Patrick: Are the Astros done for this year?

Jeff Sullivan: No, but they’re in real trouble

Ned Colletti: Is Corey Seager one of the 10 best players in the league?

Jeff Sullivan: I feel like he’s more in the 11-20 range

jon: Billy Hamilton stole 6 bases against Jon Lester in like 6 plate appearances in 2015.

Jeff Sullivan: Billy Hamilton is the best baserunner in the game, and he might be the best young baserunner in baseball history depending on whether you adjust for OBP

Ned Colletti: Who’s the slowest everyday player in MLB?

Jeff Sullivan: Some catcher, or Billy Butler

Frank Ocean: Who’s the a less popular player you have an undying love for?

Jeff Sullivan: Michael Saunders?

Jose : unfair and irrelevant question: which prospect currently in the minors is the most likely to end up in the HOF?

Jeff Sullivan: Would’ve been Benintendi a month ago

Jeff Sullivan: so I guess that means Moncada

Mark: What do you mean “I really can’t stand the argument that the Angels have wasted Mike Trout’s prime”? They have, if he keep this up, one of the greatest players in recent memory, and in 5 full seasons with LAA he has exactly 3 playoff games. It’s a waste given how talented he is, that the team can’t get into more playoff games, and has been so bad in spite of his greatness.

Jeff Sullivan: I totally get that. I do. But 30 years down the road, Angels fans will remember Trout for Trout. They’ll mostly forget about the context in which he played like a superstar. Ken Griffey Jr. never won the Mariners a World Series. Doesn’t matter

Danny: How often does pitch f/x identify multiple pitches when in reality a pitcher is throwing just one pitch? I.e. identifies a two seam and a four seam when it’s a just a four seam with a lot of variety in movement.

Jeff Sullivan: Low-level often. The pitch identification is far from perfect, but pitch types usually don’t have that much movement variation

Dustin: I’m going to watch Ms and Jays in September. Can I stay on Bainbridge Island, or is the ferry too risky?

Jeff Sullivan: Not risky. Moderately inconvenient, but lots of people use it

YOAT: Mookie Betts has a lot of just enoughs and lucky homers. Just saying. Love the man though….

Jeff Sullivan: For sure. But his power has also improved. It’s not strictly pull power anymore, and that’s a step forward

Jeff Sullivan: He’s clobbered a couple homers back up the middle. Didn’t do that before

12 to 6: Why is so much attention brought to trying to speed up baseball when football has the most idle time of any sport?

Jeff Sullivan: Because an actual football play is generally more chaotic than an actual baseball play

Jose : Wouldn’t Tommy Joseph count as knocking down the door? I don’t understand how he’s losing AB to howard, especially given the upward trend on so many peripherals (O-swing, etc)

Jeff Sullivan: I guess I’d say that Joseph is still playing, and it won’t be a great detriment that he won’t have played every single day

Da Bum: This Syndergaard SB thing is amazing but a bit overblown isn’t it? You know who is the all time leader right?

Jeff Sullivan: Does it count as overblown? No one is arguing that it’ll ruin him. But it is a problem

Jeff Sullivan: Runners ran against Maddux 10.5% of the time, with 76% success. Runners have run against Syndergaard 17% of the time so far in his career, with 92% success

Jeff Sullivan: (That’s worse)

12 to 6: How many people are in the chat right now?

Jeff Sullivan: 500

I am the walrus: Bryant, Schwarber, Contreas, Russell, Edwards have not struggled like most rookies while Baez and Soler have but they have come around pretty quickly. Isn’t that percentage high? Just luck or are the Cubs coaches and development doing something right/different?

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Cubs’ player development is pretty clearly doing things well.

Jeff Sullivan: They’ve also benefited from just having a lot of really really talented players

Cube Jockey: How much input does a front office have on in game strategy? For a club that does a lot right in other areas, the Cardinals seem content to let Matheny continue to make the same mistakes.

Jeff Sullivan: More input than ever but it varies from team to team.

mike sixel: How did you meet people when you moved to Portland? Dang, it’s hot with no AC…..The Twins are looking pretty hopeless for next year, if Berrios doesn’t pick it up. thoughts on his struggles?

Jeff Sullivan: Met a bunch of people rock climbing. That’s worked out well. Also met a few people just through baseball. It is extremely hard to make friends as an adult

Jeff Sullivan: As for Berrios, I’m not too worried. I’m sure his confidence has been shaken but he’s too good to be this bad. I like him for 2017. Not so much the Twins overall

Matt: Would you rather be a mariner or a marlin? I’m referring to the the things the teams are named after, not the teams.

Jeff Sullivan: I’d rather be someone who catches fish than a fish that gets caught

Jimmy Steve: Why does FanGraphs hate the Rangers? They have been outperforming projections all year round and got even better after the deadline!

Jeff Sullivan: Mostly because of the first part

Jeff Sullivan: And it’s not hate. It’s just a lack of trust. It all comes from the numbers

hindu mafia: Jeff, have you ever backpacked in the Wallowas? I just went there for the first time, it’s a real gem.

Jeff Sullivan: That’s the Labor Day plan. Only been over there once before. Breathtaking

12 to 6: Hi Jeff, just discovered your chat. How often do you have your chats?

Jeff Sullivan: Every Friday!

Dave Dombrowski: Am I bad at building bullpens or just cursed? And what should I do now with the pen?

Jeff Sullivan: Not your fault Carson Smith got hurt

Khng: Who are your picks for the World Series matchup?

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take Rangers/Cubs

noble ape: splash some cold water on my face: what could go wrong for Mookie? I know he could get hurt, but in terms of his approach and game, is there anything he’s succeeding at now that’s built on sand?

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, he will slow down, but other than that and other than an injury, I think it’s possible his power improvement just ends up being a mirage.

Aaron: Pitcher player pages have a column under the WPA section for MD – Meltdowns. How is a meltdown defined?

Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/sd-md/

12 to 6: What do the Angels need to do to contend for a playoff spot next year? Or do you think 2017 will be a wash and they should focus on 2018? Give an Angels fan some hope.

Jeff Sullivan: First and foremost, they need pitcher health. They need Skaggs to remain healthy, and they need for Richards’ rehab to work out. If Bandy is actually for real, that’s a big answer to a problem

Beethoven: Should Verlander or Fulmer be in the Cy Young discussion?

Jeff Sullivan: Verlander probably more than Fulmer right now

Six Ten: Does the weak SP market mean guys will get paid who shouldn’t? QOs, inflated contracts, whatever. Or will teams hold their money? For example, there’s been much chatter in Kansas City about what will happen to Volquez, and nobody agrees on whether he’ll get QOed or, more bafflingly, whether he’d accept if he did.

Jeff Sullivan: Last year’s market wasn’t weak and still Ian Kennedy got a fortune

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think teams will spend like crazy; rather, they’ll just look at trade options instead of FAs

Thomas: How long (if ever) do you think it is until the first woman plays in the MLB?

Jeff Sullivan: I bet we’ll see one pitch within the next 20 years

hindu mafia: Re: worst-run teams, I don’t disagree with the DBacks as the answer but the Rockies have to be in the conversation too, right? They just don’t have any plan at all. Or so it seems.

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know exactly how the Rockies work but for the first time I see legitimate cause to be excited. Lots and lots of young talent there, developing or that has already arrived

12 to 6: If Simmons can continue to hit will the trade with the Braves favor the Angels?

Jeff Sullivan: It already does

JD15: Why don’t more pitchers with good changeups throw their regular changeup (breaks away from opposite handed hitters) cut changeup (breaks away from same handed hitters) like Kyle Hendricks?

Jeff Sullivan: Most pitchers with good changeups have one good changeup, not two

J: How much are we over looking productive outs?

Jeff Sullivan: Not very much

Gabe: Do you think Reddick or Hill will help the Dodgers more?

Jeff Sullivan: Hill, eventually

Victor Martinez: Jeff – One year later, how do you feel about the return the Tigers got on their “reboot” last year? Fulmer is Fulmer – but Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris are already looking like solid back-end SP’s, at a minimum; with some upside left to be unlocked possibly…..

Jeff Sullivan: They did really well for just taking one year off

Apple Pie: Why don’t Mets fans appreciate deGrom?

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t they?

Tommy Boy: Keon Broxton, what is the upside? You sound interested in him

Jeff Sullivan: Basically I’ve just noticed he hits the crap out of the ball. That’s his upside. With more consistency, he’ll hit the crap out of the ball more often.

Fernando’s son: I know it’s early, but tell me why I shouldn’t be queasy that the Dodgers gave away three potentially good pitchers for magic beans.

Jeff Sullivan: The “potentially” part

Matt: Can you tell what % of people in the chat ask questions versus passive readers?

Jeff Sullivan: No idea, but the volume of questions asked means I’ll never be able to see them all

Alby: Brandon Geyer has been hit by 24 pitches in 281 PA. Is this a record rate?

Jeff Sullivan: Last I checked, he has the highest career HBP rate in baseball history

Andrew: Who wins the NL West?!

Jeff Sullivan: LA

Jack C.: In what instance will you take your gut/eyes over the numbers?

Jeff Sullivan: I guess early in a hitter’s career, maybe?

Jeff Sullivan: Or with young pitchers, I’ll look at the PITCHf/x stuff and weight that heavily, regardless of stats

spooky: Will the Mariners win a WS in my lifetime?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how old you are

Apple Pie: Seems like Mets fans went nuts for Harvey (Dark Knight craze), then are now bonkers for Thor (Kershaw comps), but never gave deGrom that same look

Jeff Sullivan: He has been sort of second fiddle to two different aces. He’ll get his

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days