Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/5/14

August 5, 2014

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Now’s as good a time as any to baseball chat

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: So let’s begin to baseball chat!

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Usual thing about fantasy questions, etc.

9:08	Comment From Edward Fluke season for Michael Brantley or has he figured something out?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I believe in the power gain. Doubt he’s going to be a long-term five-win player, but he was always average before he improved so he looks like a good one for a while

9:08	Comment From Kris Cubs go after Lester pr Max? or a year too early?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I could see them chasing Lester and it would be easier for them to sign a guy than to trade for a guy, but the Lester market is going to be busy and they don’t have the deepest pockets in baseball

9:10	Comment From Edward How much hope is there that Nolan Arenado develops more power?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I buy him as a 20-25 dinger guy at standard altitude

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Guy’s still 23. A lot of players his age are minor-league prospects

9:11	Comment From CuriousGeorge My buddy was asking whether or not to Keep Jose Fernandez in a keeper league for next year. Without hesitation the answer is yes, right?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: This fantasy question I can handle. Keep Jose Fernandez on your fantasy baseball team

9:12	Comment From J When a team is the visitor, do they bring a bat boy or is one provided by the home team? I find the concept of bat boys very odd.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.reddit.com/r/bas…

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Provided. But yeah, they’re definitely one of those things that only get weirder and weirder when you notice them and start to really think about them

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Often in the background, you’ll see a bat boy or ball boy or whatever darting around to retrieve foul balls and once you see them you can’t unsee them

9:13	Comment From Catoblepas Andrew McCutchen injured the day after getting beaned by the Diamondbacks. While a connection between the two is probably tenuous at best, why doesn’t MLB say/do something about the gun-slinging DBacks?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: They’re just not big enough offenders, and the offensive forces are likely to be fired in the nearer-term future anyhow

9:14	Comment From Catoblepas Also, how much does McCutchen’s absence hurt the Pirates’ playoff odds?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: roughly 6 or 7 percentage points or so

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Which, I know, probably seems light. That assumes a few things: McCutchen is back for half of the remaining schedule, and Starling Marte can return and produce almost right away

9:15	Comment From Gabe Should the Mets have any interest in marginal names like Kemp or Rios, or do they need to hold out and make a big trade (Tulo is the only one that springs to mind) in the offseason?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Rios is not good and Kemp does not project as a good outfielder long-term. If Kemp goes it really ought to be to a team in the other league.

9:16	Comment From JCA,CA would the bidding go up for Lester’s services now knowing he can’t get a QO?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be reflected a little bit, but what’s been observed so far is the elite free agents are mostly immune to qualifying-offer price reductions

9:16	Comment From Balki Who do you think is most likely to be traded this month?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Some junk like Rios or Danks

9:18	Comment From Johnson Why is Mookie in the bigs again and still not playing again?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Well, he started on Friday. And there are things you can learn in the majors even without playing every day. But more generally, yeah, you’d like to see him slot in at least semi-regularly over the final two months

9:20	Comment From Dave Hey Jeff, whats your take on the fallout at Toronto thats come about since the trade deadline?

9:21

Jeff Sullivan: It seems like the biggest priority for them is getting healthy, not adding another player or two. A healthy Blue Jays team is in a good position and I don’t necessarily blame them for not giving in to pick up some half-decent starting pitcher. It would’ve been nice for them to, say, add Brandon McCarthy before the Yankees did, and the Jays obviously had room for an ace-level starter, but the two aces that shifted around came from the AL East. So that was an obstacle

9:22	Comment From JCA,CA Is Swisher done?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I dont’ think he’s done, but I think he’s done being good

9:23	Comment From Kris If braves don’t make the playoffs (looking more and more likely, unfortunately) does Fredi get fired?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Honestly, some might consider it a miracle the Braves are even in contention given the things they’ve gone through

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: So there’s an argument for keeping Gonzalez around. But I could see his seat being fairly warm, and it wouldn’t be the worst thing for these chats if we could just remove him from the picture so people didn’t complain about him every week

9:24	Comment From Gary California Summer League (collegiate) may have the worst website I’ve ever seen. I’m just saying : http://www.calsummerball.com/

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: You could troll some people with that Los Angeles Brewers logo

9:25	Comment From Prich Are you happy?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: More than I was a few years ago!

9:25	Comment From Rated Rookie Did Taijuan Walker take himself out of the running for a Sunday start in Seattle?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, his stock is sinking. Team isn’t wild about where he is

9:27	Comment From Guest With Baez getting the call, do you think we also see Bryant and Soler by year’s end?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Soler’s on the 40-man roster and Bryant isn’t, so that might serve as your guide. It’s not that Bryant isn’t necessarily ready, but they might not want to hurry to put him on the roster if they don’t have to

9:28	Comment From Pirates Hurdles So, replacing Cutch … Snider in LF (Harrison 3B) or Alvarez at 3B (Harrison LF)? Or trade for Byrd?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Byrd’s not a great idea given that he’s also under contract for 2015 and the Pirates’ outfield is obviously set

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you see a quick move for a guy like Rios. Otherwise, yeah, say goodbye to plans to sit Alvarez for Harrison most of the time

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Or get ready for a lot of Travis Snider. Either way, it’s not great to be without the best everyday player in the National League

9:29	Comment From Guest So who do you think gets moved this month? Papelbon and some phillies? Colon? Anyone significant?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Some Phillies should move. I feel like Colon ought to, but he apparently never really was in any kind of demand around the deadline

9:30	Comment From mattymatty2000 Are you a believer in Allen Craig? In other words, did the Red Sox just trade 1.3-ish seasons of John Lackey for a fourth starter and damaged goods?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Allen Craig is showing all the signs of a player in collapse, but I’m open to the idea that his body isn’t 100% and perhaps he can recover if whatever might be wrong heals up. His track record is obviously strong and these sorts of sudden declines are uncommon

9:31	Comment From Joe Is baseball too much of an old boys’ network to ever come down on Kirk Gibson? What do you think would put MLB over the edge?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Hard to see baseball coming down hard on a guy who’s preaching “traditional” baseball. I’m going to guess there have been some private phone calls. If these beanballs were more common, then I could see some form of discipline. But they seem just uncommon enough. Maybe actual headhunting would raise more eyebrows

9:32	Comment From bucs_lose_again Kirk Gibson…biggest jerk ever?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Super glad to not have him managing my favorite team

9:34

Comment From jocephus
Fangraphs has Adams at 2.3 WAR in 370 PA, even though he’s having a fantastic year at the plate, and Bourjos at 1.1 WAR in 215 PA even though he’s having a miserable year at the plate. That’s 4.3 WAR/700 for Adams and 3.6 WAR/700 for Bourjos. That’s close to the same player. This year. If Bourjos hits at all (and he’s still coming off an injury) he’s a monster player.

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Bourjos’ defense is kind of stupid good. And he can run the bases, even though he’s not a real stolen-base threat. He was a four-win player in 2011 with a .327 OBP. You can see why the Cardinals picked him up and you can see why they’re so insistently trying to get him to improve

9:35	Comment From Dan Why? Why aren’t the Cubs pockets deep?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: They are deep, they just aren’t the only team that would be involved in the bidding for a free-agent ace

9:36	Comment From WP What position does Prado play for the NYY next year?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Probably a lot of them

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Third if they manage to make Alex Rodriguez go away

9:36	Comment From is he dunn? think segura bounces back? was 2013 a fluke?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a replacement-level shortstop but he’s a guy who doesn’t walk or hit for power. He has a fairly low ceiling unless he develops one of his other skills

9:37	Comment From Lunch Who’s the best CF not named after a fish?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Is there a McCutchen fish

9:38	Comment From GSon Javier Baez ROS triple slash and K% rate?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll strike out at least 30% of the time and he’ll struggle to maintain a .300 OBP. But he’ll show enough power and this’ll be important experience for his 2015 and beyond

9:39	Comment From Daneeka is Carrera the least qualified player to make a start for the Tigers this season?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Who the hell was Tyler Collins?

9:40	Comment From Gabe What’s CarGo’s real trade value given his home/away splits? Seems like the Rockies are going to be asking way too much for him.

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not as simple as that with Rockies players — research has indicated they face a disadvantage on the road of being unfamiliar with how pitches move when they aren’t a mile up. They adapt to Colorado baseball and don’t know how to play very well at non-Colorado baseball. That then presumably goes away when they’re traded or they depart as free agents

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Historically Rockies players have mostly been fine when moved. Dexter Fowler has a 122 wRC+. Real issue for Gonzalez is health

9:42	Comment From free marte strategy is marte going to turn into a star? or will he always be the third best OF in pittsburgh?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Well, both could be true, for one thing

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: But I suspect Marte will be a star on FanGraphs and a pretty good and occasionally frustrating player in other places

9:44	Comment From bucs_lose_again What should the Pirates do with Pedro Alvarez?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a good enough hitter to be able to withstand a defensive collapse. He’s about to get even more expensive. The Pirates need to figure out if they can resolve his throwing issues in the next several weeks because if he continues to look like this then he suddenly appears a reasonable non-tender candidate

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Alternatively you could see them pursue an offseason trade to send him to a team that’s power-starved and that has deeper pockets

9:47	Comment From Catoblepas Are there any examples of skills (like framing may turn out to be) that were discovered and then eliminated, in that once people knew to pay attention the variation between the good and not-good shrunk to zero?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: Nothing comes to mind off the top of my head. I mean, I don’t know, perhaps when certain breaking balls were invented way back in the day, they were a big temporary advantage until other people figured them out. But framing is going to be an interesting test. Teams seem to be somewhat convinced they can teach it, and if every team teaches good framing skills…

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, it’s not like framing is a new idea. Catchers have known about this for decades. But now we have the best ideas ever as to what really works and what really doesn’t, so at least in theory this will be fun to continue to observe

9:49	Comment From dls Phillies finally come to their senses and fire Amaro… and they hire you as GM. What are your first 2 moves?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Trade Hamels, hire a really good assistant

9:50	Comment From GSon Lonnie Chisenhall’s year has been on the edge of spectacular. ROS for him?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Since June started, he’s hit .263/.333/.433 with a normal BABIP. I feel like that’s who he is

9:51	Comment From Guest I know he made the ASG, but is Devin Mesoraco flying under the radar? A catcher in the top 10 in wRC+? His WAR per PA I believe is 4th best in baseball. That’s on FG, he’s rated a little higher on the other sites.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I keep meaning to write about him. He’s cooled off since April, but by “cooled off” I mean he’s slugged like .550

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: By wRC+, this year he’s been baseball’s best pull hitter. He’s also been one of baseball’s very worst opposite-field hitters. He’s locked in like, I don’t know, someone in between Jose Bautista and Brian Dozier

9:54	Comment From Mike So what’s the story with Bryce Harper? Where’s the power? Where’s the hitting period?!?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I just have to think this is related to his injury/surgery. Probably a lot of rust to shake off, and he’ll have to relearn some techniques. I’m not worried but the Trout/Harper stuff is only looking more and more silly

9:55	Comment From Greg Do you see Corey Kluber as more of an android or a cyborg?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I am somewhat pleased to not know the difference between those two things

9:56	Comment From Catoblepas What is the variability like in framing? Right now, the difference in strikes per game between the very best and very worst is around 5; is that a sustainable number?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: It’s sustained around 4-5 since the start of the PITCHf/x era. In theory the gap should get smaller and smaller over time but I expect that would be a gradual shift

9:57	Comment From kumbaez my lord are the cubs making a mistake in starting baez’s clock? seems a waste since super two and all

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not going to be a super-two; those players usually have to come up before early June

9:59

Jeff Sullivan: Now, Baez will be eligible for free agency a year earlier than he would’ve been if he were promoted late next April — assuming regular big-league service subsequently. So you could say that’s a thing, but teams don’t always make decisions on that basis and the Cubs want to know what they have in Baez now. They want to get his adjustment period out of the way so they can be a decent team in 2015

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Baez earned this promotion and the Cubs want to reward that. It sends a bad message to keep players in the minors when there’s nothing left for them to do there

9:59	Comment From Joel Can you explain why teams put players on waivers and then pull them back?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Because there’s no harm in doing so and they want to see what might be possible for them