Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/12/18

September 12, 2018

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Wednesday baseball chat

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: This is just a one-week swap with Kiley because he was going to be unavailable today

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Also many apologies for the especially absurd delay — podcast ran overtime

9:11	James: Where will be AL wild card game be played?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I think it would be a lot of fun to have the game played in Oakland, but I don’t see the A’s actually catching the Yankees (or the Astros for that matter)

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: But a one-game Oakland environment would be outstanding

9:12	Moelicious: What are the odds DeGrom wins the Cy Young award despite his won-loss record?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I think we’ve actually gotten to an interesting point — deGrom’s record is now so absurd I think it’s actually going to help his case

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: There’s so much attention being directed toward deGrom’s ridiculous season that I figure it’s going to convince enough writers to give him the credit he deserves

9:14	BJOGC: Given the way teams are currently not valuing averagish proven MLB players, should more teams embrace a stars and scrubs approach? Plenty of 1-1.5 War type players were available for nothing on waivers. Not to mention Moustakas, Lance Lynn and Neil walker having to take cheap 1 year deals

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: The problem is the stars. There aren’t very many of them! Every team has always wanted to build around stars. Almost by definition, they are limited in number

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Now, in theory, yeah, you’re going to have teams wanting to give more of their effective payroll space to the best players. Less money spent on the supporting depth. But in practice I don’t think you’ll see that much of a difference

9:17	Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Are you a free will guy or a fatalist?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Free will. I don’t think fate could’ve ever imagined this dumbass career I fell into

9:19	Airport Banana: With Wade Miley, Zach Davies, Brent Suter, etc., the Brewers seem to like those low-velocity guys who throw cutters. Are you able to glean anything about their organizational philosophy from this, or are they simply trying to profit off a temporary market inefficiency?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t read too much into it. The Brewers, for example, rank 15th in overall team cutter rate

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: 20th, if you go with the Pitch Info data

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Now, maybe the Brewers have some kind of slight internal preference, but this is a team that wouldn’t even be using Wade Miley if everything else had gone according to plan. A healthy Jimmy Nelson is a regular power pitcher

9:21	Brock: Hosmer said in today’s paper that he’s been working on his launch angle. Hiring Cameron’s already paying off for the Padres.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Hosmer last year had a wRC+ of 135. Hosmer this year has a wRC+ of 94. Playing for Cameron’s Padres, Hosmer has been worse than replacement!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: In reality, of course, Hosmer was going to happen regardless of whether Dave had been hired. We all know how Dave felt about that inevitable move. And it only makes sense that Hosmer would start to think about making some changes after how bad he was for four or five months

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Padres should’ve given eight years to Ji-Man Choi instead

9:25	Peter: Will DeGrom finish with a higher WAR or actual win total?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Current situation: 8 wins, 7.7 WAR, 8.2 RA9-WAR

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I still think he’s going to win another game or two, just because this has basically been improbable, but I’d be lying if I said this isn’t one of my favorite active baseball storylines

9:28	stever20: Why are the Dodgers so mediocre against the bad teams? vs Mets, Marlins, Reds, Giants, and Padres they are 25-25. Vs everyone else they are 53-42.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers as a team rank 7th in baseball in winning percentage against teams that are .500 or better. They rank 17th in winning percentage against teams under .500

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: But then the Cardinals rank 3rd and 18th, respectively

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: So, for one thing, the Dodgers aren’t alone in doing this. And for another, this is going to be a boring response, but I don’t think there’s anything to read into. The Dodgers have just been maddeningly inconsistent, and it’s easiest to notice when they lose games they ought to win

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers might be 25-25 against those five teams you named, but they’ve also outscored those teams 228-180

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Fold in some luck and better clutch performance and you wouldn’t think anything of it

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Except for the Reds part. That one just looks bad

9:34	ZoomZoom: At this point, did the Brewers have the best offseason? The two stars have obviously been great, but they also snagged Chacin and Miley for cheap while finding a way to keep Jesus Aguilar?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers’ offseason was great. They picked up the two players who have turned out to be the best players on the team

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how you could argue anyone did better

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, the Astros got, say, Gerrit Cole and Hector Rondon, and that’s really good, but it’s not Brewers good

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers’ offseason was great, and the Cubs’ offseason was ugly. Which is why we have a division race even though the Brewers haven’t had their best starting pitcher all season long

9:37	stever20: Does Sale have any shot in your mind realistically of the Cy Young if he doesn’t get over 162 innings?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: I’m a voter this year for the AL Cy Young, so I can’t talk about this very much, but the fact of the matter is that, even right now, Sale remains the AL leader in pitching WAR. I don’t care if he somehow did that in 40 innings. If you’re the leader in quality, of *course* you have a case

9:38	tb.25: Is it Friday already? Yippee!!

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I have terrible news!

9:40	Slider: How many orgs contract third parties to evaluate their own methods in an attempt guard against bias? Thinking about Adam McCalvy’s article yesterday on the Brewers and shifting.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the article: https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-leading-way-with-defensive-sh…

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the relevant excerpt: “The Brewers attempt to qualify a sort of “plus/minus” of their shifts, but it’s an inherently subjective task to determine whether a shift helped, hurt or was neutral. To account for that bias, the Brewers get a separate analysis from a third-party vendor.”

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not able to speak to this directly, but just in terms of outside consulting, teams contract with them all the time

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Tango, for example, has been a consultant. Same with MGL. It’s very common

9:43

Matt: Oh god, I am actually rooting for Ben Cherington to be the next Mets GM. Every other name tossed around just sounds brutal. Shapiro is at least professional I guess. But deep down, in my heart of hearts, I know the Mets are gonna hire Dan Duquette or just give the job back to Minaya. The next decade of Mets baseball is gonna be such a disaster…

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: The guy in charge of the front office is important, but he’s not as important as the guy in charge of the guy in charge of the front office. The Mets aren’t going to feel like a stable organization until there’s some kind of change at the ownership level

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Very obviously, it’s possible for the Mets to be very good under the current owners. But they are lacking for leadership and direction, and that won’t change no matter who they hire to be the next GM

9:45	Bo: Now that the NL East picture is becoming much clearer, how should the Braves line up their NLDS rotation? Folty and Gausman are the only truly reliable starters at the moment.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It’s going to depend on who they play. But as you already understand, they’re not exactly rich with great options

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Against all odds, Sanchez would make sense as the No. 3

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Teheran vs. Newcomb would then come down to whether the opponent is better from the left side or the right side

9:49	The Old Buccaneer: Colin Moran and Josh Bell are both under 1 WAR for the season. Is there any reason to think either can end up being an above average regular for the Pirates?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: Sure, because all it would take is a moderate power boost, and those are the kinds of improvements we’re seeing every single season. There’s still upside in both Bell and Moran. But I don’t think anyone should expect them to become consistent 3+ WAR players. That’s just never been the likelihood

9:51	Vslyke: Do the Braves have enough pitching to win in October? While the offense has the potential to win some games, I am worried that the bullpen in particular won’t be able to hold leads.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: To use a very simple angle, the Braves are basically tied with the Brewers and Cardinals in pitching-staff WAR. They’re well ahead of the Cubs. Do the Cubs have enough pitching to win in October?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Brach/Winkler/Venters/Minter/Biddle isn’t the greatest bullpen that’s ever existed, but I think it’s okay. It’s definitely not a liability. The Brewers are the only team with a Josh Hader, but then, he’s easily their most prominent weapon

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Remember that literally last year’s World Series champion got that far while more or less ignoring their closer

9:56	Will: Are the A’s going to bullpen more than half their playoff games? If so, is a guy like Familia going to suffer based on what happened to Morrow this year?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: We don’t even know if they’re going to experience multiple playoff games

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: We certainly don’t know if they’re going to make it to Game 7 of the World Series

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Brandon Morrow made 14 pitching appearances in last year’s playoffs. 14! The A’s might be toast in three hours.