Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/10/13

September 10, 2013

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hey there everybody, sorry for the delay. I’m currently day-to-day with lower back spasms or something and it’s taking me forever to move around the apartment.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: It’s the oldest I’ve felt in a while, but at least the sitting position is relatively comfortable. So let’s chat baseball!

9:05	Comment From Dewey Care to gauge T. Walker’s trade value after his cup of coffee?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Mariners question! It’s high, no doubt, and it helps that now he’s had some success at the big-league level, but it’s a shame two of those starts had to come against the Astros.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: It could’ve gone a lot worse, though. So Walker’s a big trade piece, that they won’t trade.

9:06	Comment From BackSpasms Hey Brah, mind if I stay awhile!?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Go away! You are terrible!

9:06	Comment From emlazar With Allen Craig locked up through 2017, will the Cardinals look to shop around Matt Adams this offseason? If so, what is his trade value?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Cardinals are going to actively shop him, but I think some teams are going to place some inquisitive phone calls. His actual value, though, should be somewhat high without being through the roof. All he is is a pretty good hitter

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Keep in mind he’s not much of a defender and he’s not much of a baserunner and he strikes out a lot relative to how often he walks

9:08	Comment From Sirras One Mets are supposedly going to go after Choo, though they don’t want to get into a bidding war. At what point do you think the Mets back off in said bidding war?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Well below Choo’s ultimate price

9:09	Comment From Scott Can you tell me everything you know about Christian Arroyo?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I sure can!

9:09	Comment From _David_ Ichiro has the second best WAR among Mariners position players this year (if you don’t extrapolate Brad Miller to a full season).

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners have a team UZR of like -80 or something

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: that has to come from somewhere

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Ichiro’s WAR is 2.6 wins higher than the Marlins’ collective position-player WAR

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: that gap is bigger than the White Sox’s collective position-player WAR

9:11	Comment From Jills Nipple If we were to rank the rookies this year by the year they’ve had, would the first AL rookie come in at 4th?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: …trying to find out if Yan Gomes qualifies…

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I think Gomes might be ineligible?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: In any case, maybe fourth, quite possibly lower. The NL rookie pitchers have been outstanding

9:14	Comment From Joe Any guesses on the AAV of Kershaw’s next contract?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: $28 million

9:14	Comment From Eminor3rd Are you any good at Connect 4?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I had a solid career peak

9:15	Comment From Henry do you find yourself using baseball lingo for all your issues? like are all injuries day-to-day? has a personal relationship ever gone on the 40-day-dl?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never really done that, and the 60-day DL doesn’t exist, but I do find that I use baseball for an awful lot of examples for ideas that don’t really have anything to do with baseball

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: *40-day DL

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: ugh now I look like a maroon

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Talking to the lady last night, she was complaining about an unprepared supervisor who’s in a role he doesn’t deserve, and for a few minutes Taijuan Walker was on TV, and I suggested that there are people who think he, too, was promoted too quickly. That he, too, might be in over his head. Walker subsequently struck out the side

9:17	Comment From Sirras One Least favorite pitcher to watch in baseball? Is anybody less watchable than Dice-K?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: It’s Dice-K

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Dice-K is literally torture. He is genuinely illegal to broadcast.

9:19

Comment From David
Gerrit Cole’s start last night seems much more representative of his stuff (ie he got strikeouts). Did you watch the game and did you notice anything that might indicate a change in approach; for instance, there was a fangraphs article about the Pirates favouring groundballs or the like?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Murdered the strike zone with first pitches. Got into 0-and-1 counts against 18 of 25 batters. When you get to pitch ahead, you get to use different weapons and expand the zone, helping Cole rack up so many strikeouts.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: As it happens, 22 of his 25 first pitches were fastballs, but they allowed him to pitch off that and get to his other stuff.

9:22	Comment From Eminor3rd What do you do in your “free” time? Like on a nightly basis, not necessarily weekend trips to the volcanoes

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: A lot of jogging and bouldering

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: With a hurt back, I wasn’t able to jog or boulder yesterday, so I spent my free time fainting and watching an old episode of Tosh.0 because of which I remembered Samwell

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Remember Samwell?

9:24	Comment From Greg Chances Puig hits better than .350 this season?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s call it…25%?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: .300/.379/.482 since the start of July (253 PA)

9:26	Comment From _David_ Thoughts on Paxton’s debut?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Threw harder than I expected. Settled down, found his curveball. I try not to judge people too much on their big-league debuts but I’ve always been a little too much of a Paxton fan, given his command issues

9:27	Comment From GSon Ubaldo the magnificent.. did anyone see this guy coming?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: ooh ooh! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/just-how-far-gone-is-ubaldo-jimenez/

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll still never be what he was, but he’s probably a legitimately above-average starting pitcher

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: His strikeouts have rebounded and then some

9:29	Comment From Jills Nipple How much do the Dodgers will have to eat to ditch Ethier? Or is it better to keep him as a 4th OF since Kemp and Crawford get banged up and Puig is still unproven?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: If they have a chance to move him, they should move him, and they’d have to eat less than they would’ve had to some months ago, before he started to rebound. Another team could still see him as an average or above-average regular OF so maybe that means the Dodgers eat about half?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers should find a younger, healthier, more versatile, better defensive outfielder

9:32	Comment From Waudude Did you catch your back spasms from Felix Hernandez? WAIT, did he catch them from you?!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I caught them from bending down to throw out a banana peel.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I am now reminded of how close we all are to death

9:33	Comment From Bob Loblaw Why is Yu Darvish having so much trouble scoring runs for the Rangers?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: People haven’t worked with him enough on his hitting

9:33	Comment From Jeremy Starters who become elite closers are usually lacking in what area? Secondary pitches? Control?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: No set rule. Sometimes control, sometimes changeups, sometimes margin of error. Throwing a harder fastball can make up for an awful lot

9:34	Comment From Guest What is more impressive in 2013? Jorge De La Rosa 2.76ERA Home 3.86ERA Road or Jhoulys Chacin 3.81ERA Home 2.10ERA Road

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Chacin, because he’s better overall

9:35	Comment From Kevin For purposes of valuing Lawrie is it time to forget about his amazing 2011 stint? He showed so much promise…not that he is a bad player now but he’s not the guy we saw two seasons ago.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not time to forget about it, but it’s time to realize what it did to the expectations. Consider that partial season to be representative of his potential ceiling

9:36	Comment From Greg Do you think the Cubs can turn Daniel Bard back into a successful closer?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:37	Comment From Sirras One Weirdest player in baseball, go?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Munenori Kawasaki

9:38	Comment From Furman Slightly larger small sample size, but Ackley is still looking good since the break. Has he turned the corner? And if so, do the Mariners keep him as a super-utility guy?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: He has not definitively turned the corner — he’s just shown some signs of improvement. Still not much power, still not a good defender in the outfield. A few months ago, I thought the Mariners would prepare to trade Ackley and give 2B to Franklin. Now I wonder if they’ll trade Franklin and move Ackley back to 2B, given how things have turned around for both

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I expect that one of those guys will be gone by January

9:40	Comment From Gila Monster Better Rotation by 2015 : Red Sox, Orioles, Mariners,Rays? The first three a full of top prospects and the Rays….well are the Rays.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Hard one. Red Sox because of money, Rays because of genius, Mariners or Orioles because of prospect talent

9:43	Comment From Mike How much would Liriano get if he was a free agent this offseason

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s call it something like 2/$22 million? Still going to be concerns about durability, track record, finding success in the NL

9:44	Comment From Mike You guys have the Red Sox at basically 1/3 to win the WS. That seems high. Could there be an issue with the playoff odds?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Right now it looks like they have a three-in-four chance of winning the World Series, according to our numbers. That might be correct but I am skeptical and I’m going to bring this up in the company conference call

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I mean winning the actual WS, having already advanced there

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Tigers at 66%, A’s at 52%, Rangers at 62%, Dodgers at 39%, Braves at 24%…

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a pretty heavy league adjustment that we’re seeing

9:46	Comment From Johnstone On offense ability alone, who do you pick out of Ellsbury, Choo, and McCann in free agency?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Choo

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury’s baserunning could make up an awful lot of the gap, if that counts

9:48	Comment From Travis See any MVP’s in Jason Heyward’s future?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think so, although I could see a year he leads the league in WAR

9:48	Comment From Seth Is it really worth it for players like Justin Smoak to keep switch hitting when his splits as a righty are so bad?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: At some point you do need to have the conversation, but then Smoak’s numbers as a righty now are worse than they used to be, which doesn’t make much sense. I don’t know when you decide to give up switch-hitting — it’s probably less about the results, and more about the comfort and the quality of the swing

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Sure seems to me like it would be better to just focus on one set of swing mechanics, and Smoak in particular didn’t even really hit lefties in the minors

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: People have their reasons for sticking as switch-hitters when the numbers are underwhelming, but people are also stubborn

9:53	Comment From Seth Who do you think is the most average player in MLB?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Michael Brantley is a candidate, kind of

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: In my head, all of the A’s

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Depends how detailed you want to get. Most average in as many categories as possible, or most average overall?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: A guy like Nate Schierholtz is ultra-average. David DeJesus…

9:55	Comment From Greg Do you think Travis Wood will be a consistent FIP-beater or is this just a lucky season?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: As an extreme fly-baller, he’ll run some pretty low career BABIPs, but so far over 550 innings he has a 3.82 ERA and a 4.10 FIP. This year is extreme

9:56	Comment From Seth If an average NPB player were to come to MLB, what do you think his WAR would be?

9:57	Comment From _David_ Why are the Yankees platooning Ichiro? He has never shown sustained platoon splits. Last year it was slightly normal, this year it’s reversed.

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: He’s playing almost every day, so I’m not sure he is being platooned. But he’s also not a real good hitter anymore, nevermind his platoon splits, and if you’re going to play Vernon Wells — which you have to do sometimes — it makes sense to slot him in for the bad-hitting outfielder with a southpaw on the mound

9:58	Comment From Gila Monster Did we finally see top prospect flame throwing Gerrit Cole last night, not “We want you to be Masterson Gerrit Cole”?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Last night was definitely more of the electric sort that people have been expecting