Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/2/14

September 2, 2014

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: here is a video of a volcano https://www.youtube.com/wat…

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s chat about baseball! Let’s not chat about fantasy baseball.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: As a word of warning, I was completely out of touch over the weekend, so good luck getting an insightful answer on anything that’s happened extremely recently. One can catch up only so much

9:06	Comment From Alex Favorites from the NL, AL?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: A’s and Nationals

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Still think of the A’s as the best team in the AL, but now I highly doubt they’re catching the Angels in the division, so that makes things complicated

9:07	Comment From Dave So Justin Verlander………

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Is this about his pitching or his butt

9:08	Comment From Guest Did you know you can drink lava?…but you can only do it once

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: You can cook in lava http://www.dolphinbayhilo.c…

9:08	Comment From Mark Can we chat about fantasies about baseball?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Like the fantasy that we can predict it?

9:09	Comment From Hamilton Porter Am I just overly excited or with equal playing time would Joc put up better numbers next year than Oscar Taveras?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I’d call that one a coin flip. Taveras has questions about his discipline and power at this point, but Pederson has put up the numbers he’s put up in an extremely hitter-friendly environment so we don’t really know what he is yet outside of his observable tools

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I know people have been coming down on Taveras over the last few months but even if you don’t think he’s a future superstar, let’s not be too hasty to write him off as an elite-level prospect

9:11	Comment From Robert % chance Matt Shoemaker is real? COBBLE COBBLE COBBLE

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Think I wrote about that last week. I think he’s for real as an above-average starting pitcher; obviously, takes more time to prove he’s a borderline ace. I love a starting pitcher with a good splitter

9:12	Comment From Guest Kluber hasn’t looked too hot his last few starts. Good competition or something to worry about?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: He’s allowed 11 runs his last three starts, and Felix has allowed 10. Two pitchers who might be trying to back into the Cy Young award

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: My presumption is that Kluber is mostly fine, but no one is working at 100% at this point and he’s real close to 200 innings. There’s going to be some fatigue in there, certainly

9:14	Comment From Tony G. How many starts left for Drew Smyly this season? Based on his stellar numbers since being traded to the Rays, any chance he could be a top-10 American League pitcher next season?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: He is not a top-ten pitcher

9:15	Comment From Awake in Seattle Chris Taylor vs. Brad Miller; who would you go with ROS, as well as in 2015?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Still prefer Miller, by a small amount. Not in love with either of them. Helps that Miller has actual power

9:17	Comment From Vic Romano Will Wainwright get right down the stretch? Seems hard to picture them making the playoffs without him being who he normally is….

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: While I know what you’re getting at, the Cardinals have recently taken the lead in the NL Central with Wainwright still not being his normal self, so it’s not like this is an inarguable barrier to their success

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: A few days ago he said he’d been going through a dead-arm phase, which I’m willing to believe. I’m also willing to believe Wainwright knows his own body and limits, given what he’s been through before, so while there’s no guarantee that he’ll just up and get better — he is a pitcher, after all — I’m moderately encouraged and I think he’s been showing signs lately. I think he’ll be solid the rest of the way

9:21	Comment From GSon One of Joc Pederson’s stated strongest attributes in the minors was his pitch selection ‘discipline.. but still struck out waaaay too often.. Would a Baez Joc Pederson comp be far off?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Way off!

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Baez swung half the time in Triple-A, and made 63% contact. Pederson swung 41% of the time in Triple-A, and made 70% contact

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Or if you prefer, Pederson has doubled Baez’s walk rate while striking out less often

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: And Baez has the superior bat speed/power ceiling because he’s a freak

9:22	Comment From Guest How predictive is K-BB%? Is it still useful if the other advanced stats don’t point towards a solid pitcher?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Starting point-y, like FIP or xFIP are. Start with the most important thing and then work your way down. If a guy isn’t good despite a strong K-BB%, figure out why. Like with Joe Blanton!

9:23	Comment From Erik Lots of anticipation, some false starts, finally an eruption but not nearly what many people had hoped … yet still impressive if you gave it some time. Icelandic eruption is what current ballplayer?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Lonnie Chisenhall?

9:25	Comment From Travis Fredi Gonzalez pinch hit Jose Constanze for a healthy Justin Upton yesterday. Fredi’s gone next year, right? Please tell me he’s gone…

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: It was the bottom of the ninth of a 7-0 baseball game

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine actually caring about what happens in that half-inning

9:25	Comment From David Felix has looked … dare I say … HUMAN in his last couple of starts. Can the M’s afford this?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: They sure can’t!

9:26	Comment From fanjeff hey jeff huge fan. which player is the best at dancing

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Munenori Kawasaki

9:27	Comment From Dr. Met Is it just me, or has this year been one for the ages in terms of non “closers” having astronomical K rates and being as good or better than their 9th inning counterparts?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the exact history, but of course strikeout rates keep rising and so the league-average reliever at this point basically whiffs a batter a frame

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Are you including Wade Davis over Greg Holland? Because they’re basically equal

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I think baseball also generally has the best understanding of leverage that it’s ever had, so there’s more of an emphasis on having a really good reliever for the 7th and 8th as well, but I think it’s mostly just that strikeouts are everywhere today

9:30	Comment From Guest What do you think of Brandon McCarthy? Closer to Yankees, Diamondbacks, or his xFIP?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I buy him as an 85-90 FIP- sort as long as he sustains this velocity hike

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been super good, and it’s fairly easy to explain. He hasn’t even been hurt yet!

9:30	Comment From Kevin But how well do you think the A’s can survive a one-game playoff with, say, Felix and the Mariners?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: The A’s have Lester or Gray and the A’s

9:32	Comment From Daniel The Royals, Tigers, and Mariners are fighting for two playoff spots. FG says the Tigers are at 80%, Royals are at 65%, and Mariners are at 35% to get one spot. Do you concur?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I’d put the Tigers a little lower and the Mariners a little higher, sort of like in between the current FG odds and the season-to-date current FG odds

9:33	Comment From Guest How many more seasons is Adam Jones a solid CF? He’s been amazingly consistent the last few years

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: His track record is actually amazing, in how little it’s varied year to year. Guy’s only recently turned 29 so he could have another 4-5 seasons of being average or better in the middle

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: This is the first year the numbers have really loved his defense, but the Orioles have lived with him this long and he shouldn’t lose his athleticism that quickly

9:35	Comment From Dingos Which player, positively or negatively, has produced runs at a rate farthest from his true talent level?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: hmmmmm

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try both ends!

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I won’t use the obvious Justin Turner

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Steve Pearce and Jean Segura?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Gyorko instead of Segura

9:38	Comment From Sandy What’s wrong with Corey Kluber? Is this regression to mean, or is he hurt, or have batters begun to figure him out?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Does something always have to be seriously wrong?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: A quick look at some numbers:

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: First 26 starts: 75% contact Last 3 starts: 63% contact

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: His velocity’s been fine. Some issues finding the zone, and while that could be indicative of something, it’s encouraging that he’s been so hard to hit on a per-swing basis. I assume he is an ace who is in a minor results slump, just like Felix

9:43	Comment From Spencer How do you see Alex Wood’s future playing out? His age-22 and 23 seasons are very similar to Sale’s 22 and 23 seasons. Sale is better on the K/BB side, while Wood gets more ground balls and limits homers a bit better. All told, they seem pretty similar. Your thoughts?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: I give Sale a pretty substantial edge for doing what he’s done in Chicago in the American League. There are obvious similarities between the two but I’d put Wood a level below, which isn’t an insult considering how awesome Sale has been this whole time. Good starting pitcher, who’ll never make people feel entirely comfortable about his health

9:44	Comment From Dr. Met Hey… if you were out of touch over the weekend how’d you find out about JV and KUpton’s photogenic-ness?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: The worst part of going off the grid is subsequently having to play catch-up for a few hours

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes Twitter is just the worst thing

9:44	Comment From Brian Break it to us gently Jeff, are the M’s going to make the playoffs or not? (my long time M’s fandom thinks I know the answer already)

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: More often than not the answer would be no

9:45	Comment From Guest O/U 83.5 wins for the Cubs next year?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: That feels like a really good line. I’ll be bold! Over!

9:45	Comment From Mike Has Jorge Soler peaked?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: well there’s no higher level than the major leagues, so in that sense

9:46	Comment From Jheff So Aaron Sanchez has looked good. Maybe he doesnt suck?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been a reliever. Pretty easy for a guy with a big arm to be a fine reliever. Those who ranked Sanchez with the best young pitchers didn’t see him as a reliever

9:47	Comment From AA Hector Rondon a top tier closer next year?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Not top-tier, no, but fine

9:48	Comment From Wobatus If you were Mariners GM, would you trade Miller this off-season for pitching, say a Rafael Montero type, or hold him and hope he can become super-utility depth.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I’d sooner try to capitalize on Chris Taylor’s BABIP

9:48	Comment From Guest Do you think Joc will get work in center field, or will the crazy Dodgers OF logjam put him in the corner spots?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Puig’s actually been a pretty adequate defensive CF, it seems, so I doubt Pederson works his way in there regularly

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Down the stretch in 2014, I mean

9:49	Comment From BobbyS Is MLB headed down the same path as the NBA when it comes to tanking for the draft? There’s tremendous value in higher picks; draft pool money, playing potential draft picks against each other, protected picks, etc. The Rangers seem to be embracing this idea…

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: Not at all. In the NBA, a high draft pick can yield immediate rewards, and one player can all but make a team if he’s good enough. The baseball draft will forever be too risky and unpredictable. I don’t believe that baseball teams tank. I do believe that they act a lot more conservatively down the stretch if there’s no reason to push things. Like, if a pitcher is a little bit hurt in September, you might as well shut him down if you’re just playing for a 63rd win

9:51	Comment From Guest Where do you see Chris Davis’ slash line being next year after some regression to the mean?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine he’ll slug about .475, which I guess would give him a line close to his career averages. What a coincidence!

9:51	Comment From HR What do you make of bo porter’s firing?

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: Not hard to see coming. Seems like there was very poor communication between him and the front office, and that’s just never going to work. Now, of course, Porter wasn’t the problem, but he’s been *a* problem in terms of building discontent, and it’s going to be hard for the Astros to find an awesome and willing candidate. But given how few managerial positions are open at a time, applicants will still be there and now the Astros have a better idea of what they’re looking for than they did when Porter first came aboard

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: And the manager they want now will be different from the manager they wanted then. Then, the Astros were years and years away. Now, they’re transitioning from terrible to okay, and the stage after that should be borderline-competitive. So it shouldn’t really be about playing Double-A players much longer

9:56	Comment From Guest what 3 players will have started the most games in the OF for the red sox at this point next year

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Cespedes, Betts, Victorino?

9:57	Comment From Jheff What do you think of the Jays calling up Daniel Norris and Dalton Pompey?

9:58

Jeff Sullivan: Why wouldn’t they? Norris has been strong so far and he’s had his innings limited, so this’ll be good exposure for him. And Pompey will just get his eyes opened. He’s risen very quickly and I don’t think he’s big-league ready or anything, but every little experience he gains now is an experience he doesn’t have to gain in 2015 or 2016

9:59

Comment From Jack
I quit my high school baseball team because the thinking was so ancient; the coach took to Twitter and called me “ignorant” for saying Mike Trout is having a better season than his MVP choice Jose Altuve. I’m not crazy, right? Because all my friends agree with him that Altuve>Trout.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’re wrong

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Extremely wrong!

9:59	Comment From Wobatus How common is it for a hitter to solve a major K problem like Baez’s?