Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/24/13

September 24, 2013

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Late!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not late when late is normal

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: All right, finally managed to tweet this out. Now then

9:05	Comment From Jason What is more depressing to you, the Mariners or that there is only one episode of Breaking Bad left?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I’m ready for Breaking Bad to be over. Aren’t you? It’s been too difficult to watch. Phenomenal, yes, but, it’s time. I’m pleased that the series is over this weekend.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I think I’ll go with the word “dreadticipation”

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: that’s how I’ve been feeling about BB

9:07	Comment From Billy Gunn Why did Mike Trout’s 2012 UZR change from 11.4 to 13.3?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the answer to that yet — maybe an adjusted park factor or a re-classification — but, how on earth did you notice?

9:08	Comment From Os fan Tell me something to make me feel less depressed about Machado…please.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Many baseball players his age are juniors in college

9:08	Comment From Prich Have you ever considered the rest of the world might just be early?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: all the damned time

9:10	Comment From hooha If the pirates stick in the wild card spot, who do you think should start the one wild card game?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Burnett, and if not him, Cole. Presumably, they’d be playing the Reds. Considering the Orioles beat the Rangers with Joe Saunders…

9:12	Comment From Sirras One More devastating for next year: Matt Harvey’s injury or Manny Machado’s?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Well, we don’t actually know if they’re both going to have surgery. If we operate under the assumption neither will play in 2014, though, the answer is Machado, because his team is closer to contending

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Research needs to be done on how well players recover defensively after sustaining knee injuries like Machado’s. But we can’t do anything, really, until we know more details

9:14	Comment From WWMTD Who do you want to win the 2013 World Series? Who actually will?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: A’s, Red Sox

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It seems like the people who leave comments underneath chat posts on FG are always asking fantasy questions

9:15	Comment From GSon.. Are you going to reveal what your thoughts are on the hearing next Monday in New York w/ ARod and MLB?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Had completely erased it from my mind. I’d rather think about the playoffs

9:16	Comment From Electric If Profar doesn’t get traded, what will his role be in TEX next year?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: similar

9:17	Comment From GSon.. What’s the reasoning behind shutting Taijuan down when he could make one.. perhaps two more starts?.. Do the M’s front office give a damn about the fans at all?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: They didn’t want him to increase by more than 30 innings. They shut him down after an increase of 30 innings. They stuck to their guns, in an attempt to protect his arm, which is something we should all be rooting for. What’s the sense of pushing him now, in the most meaningless of Septembers?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Walker’s one start at home in the majors didn’t even sell 10,000 tickets.

9:20	Comment From Dewey Many words have been typed about the A’s platoon advantages being a core of their success. Is this advantage more pertinent over the regular season than playoffs?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: The effect is probably similar. Maybe a little reduced in the playoffs, but not enough for it to decide a series

9:21	Comment From Electric Yellich line in 2014?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: a little worse than Yelich line in 2013

9:22	Comment From Buck Turgidson Hi Jeff, thanks for the chat! Is this the year for the A’s? Firing on all cylinders.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Definitively yes

9:22	Comment From Prich Sunday’s Astros-Indians game drew a 0.0 Nielsen raing in Houston… There has to be a snarky comment/philisophical joke in there

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: “According to the Houston Chronicle’s David Barron, Sunday’s game, which started at noon Central Time (1 p.m. Eastern Time in Cleveland) and was broadcast on Comcast SportsNet Houston, received a 0.00 Nielsen rating — a sampling of a small percentage of the TV-watching population. Sunday’s rating came via 581 meters in the Greater Houston area, around half of which were in use by viewers for any 15-minute period during the three-hour bloc between noon and 3 p.m. Meanwhile, 23 percent of households were busy watching the NFL’s Houston Texans lose to the Baltimore Ravens, 1.3 percent were watching a NASCAR race, 0.5 percent were watching a Cosby rerun and 0.16 percent were watching the NFL Network’s screen of football scores.”

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: http://mlb.si.com/2013/09/23/houston-astros-nielsen-rating/

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I want to laugh, and it is funny, but I can’t help but think about the miniature sample size

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: God dammit FanGraphs

9:25	Comment From _David_ Does the Royals team UZR give Dayton Moore any saber-cred?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: You don’t get saber cred as a GM if you actively reject sabermetrics

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I also suspect Moore doesn’t give a hoot

9:26	Comment From Sirras One Favorite non-baseball website?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: https://gamecenter.nhl.com/nhlgc/secure/gclsignup?navid=nav-gcl-main&intcmpid=nhl-gcl-mainnav

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Generally speaking, I try not to spend very much time on the internet if I’m not working on baseball. There’s a whole world outside, and I want to know as much of it as I can before I’m dead. And that could be any day!

9:27	Comment From Nick C Projected line for Balentien if he played in the majors next year?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: .250/.310/.450? Sure, whatever

9:28	Comment From Dave Is Rosenthal the answer for the cards pen?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: one of them

9:28	Comment From Person Given how little time is left in the season, we should be savoring it. Why is anyone in a hurry for you, or anything else baseball related, to begin?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Personally, I can’t wait for the regular season to be finished

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: but my favorite team sucks

9:29	Comment From Guest Does Mr. Nintendo’s death ultimately mean good bye Felix?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: What? No

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Wow, that is one thoroughly lousy submission

9:30	Comment From Dave Jeff, with hockey season coming up how is this year going to be without your lord and savior Daniel Alfredsson in a senators uniform?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/cms/binary/8811684.jpg

9:30	Comment From Guest Why wouldn’t you want Liriano to start the wild card game vs. Cincinnati. With Votto, Bruce, Choo, I think having a lefty in there is a major advantage. Plus it’s Liriano’s natural spot in the rotation.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Reds haven’t hit lefties much worse than righties, and I like Burnett/Cole better. But Liriano’s fine too, provided you have him on a leash so things don’t go too sour in that event

9:33	Comment From Moses There’s a disconnect in sabermetric thinking that has really been bugging me recently and I was curious as to your thoughts. How can strikeouts simultaneously be the best possible result for a pitcher but just another out for the hitter?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: This can help! http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/4/1/4165664/how-can-strikeouts-be-great-for-pitchers-but-not-that-bad-for-hitters

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, they’re important for pitchers. A strikeout isn’t a ball in play. Balls in play are hits sometimes, etc

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Batters have a greater degree of control over their balls in play, like how much power they hit for. And strikeouts do matter more than other outs, but in the major leagues, the only batters left who strike out often are batters who make up for it in other ways like walks and dingers

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like I could’ve put that better, but that gets the general ideas across

9:36	Comment From Buehrles Burly-Men I want a dog but I’m poor as hell. Should I suffer financially or should I console myself in the warmth of a cuddly pup?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: So basically: “should I get a dog, or should I get a dog?”

9:39	Comment From GSon.. You are aware of the rules for a possible 3-way tie for the Wild Card in the AL. If you were the Rays, wouldn’t you prefer to be team C at that point?. explain..

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: If I were the Rays, I’d like to avoid a tie-breaker situation entirely

9:40	Comment From _David_ I don’t understand the bees. They couldn’t have just come out of nowhere. Angel stadium is surrounded by a 100 mile radius of concrete. You would think at least they would’ve been visible to some employee long before the game.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.khss.com/media/cache/4d/ec/4decbec7584bfa99d452edab7cdbc1fb.jpg

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I could be wrong, but I think they came from the trees. At least, that’s where a lot of them wound up

9:41	Comment From Patrick B. Do you think Profar will ever become the player scouts expected him to be?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Sure

9:42	Comment From Guest Burnett, really? He’s had “big inning” problems the whole second half. Liriano’s got to get that start, especially with how he’s done v. lefties, the Billy Hamilton SB threat (Burnett’s terrible at holding runners), etc.

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: You can argue other ways, and that’s fine, and ultimately it won’t make a huge difference, but Burnett’s second-half FIP is also 2.20, and Liriano also blows up, adn Hamilton isn’t a good hitter, and by the time Hamilton might come off the bench to pinch-run, you’re probably into the bullpen. You should be into the bullpen early, regardless

9:44	Comment From _David_ Since the Mariners relief pitchers have demonstrated talent and success in the past, and since relief pitchers are so unpredictable, should the bullpen be seen as the weakness it was this year and become a priority, or might it be decent enough already?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: I think a good, easy rule of thumb is to just regress every bullpen to league average going forward to the next season. Obviously that misses a few points, and there will be exceptions, but if I’m the Mariners, or any other bad team, I don’t spend a lot of resources on upgrading my relief

9:45	Comment From BX Do you have a favorite player on any of the projected postseason teams?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Unsurprisingly, Votto

9:45	Comment From Tom Since there’s basically no correlation between playoff predictions and what actually happens, would it be more honest of writers to just say “I have no idea”? Or would that spoil the fun, which I guess is the point?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Any smart, honest writer would be up front about the fact that there’s no way to know what’s going to happen. Predictions are a complete waste of time, made by complete wastes of time.

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: But, there are readers, and readers want material. People don’t want to read “welp”. People want stuff to digest, and writers have to provide what the people want, so the best other approach is identifying potential areas of significance and discussing them in depth. For example, we could talk about a Pirates/Reds one-game playoff, and we could talk about Liriano vs. Cincy’s LHBs. That’s a thing to know. Could be important! But there’s a big difference between knowing Liriano has pitched well against lefties, and knowing who’s going to win. We can talk about details while still shrugging our shoulders about the results

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: We’re going to have FanGraphs playoff series previews coming soon. Those are hard to write, specifically because we all know better. The challenge is finding just a little signal amidst all the noise

9:48

Comment From JCC
If I had to guess where Joe Girardi ends up next year, I’d guess 50% Yankees, 30% Cubs and 20% to a surprise team. My surprise team would be the Nationals; I’m not sure if the Yankees could throw enough money at Girardi to go through what we may delicately call a few “seasons of adjustment” in NY. Concur?

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: More or less, yeah. I think the Yankees are going to try really hard to keep Girardi around, because he seems really good, but if he’s just tired of the headaches, he seems like the sort who’ll make a decision based on quality of life. It isn’t easy to be a manager anywhere, but the Yankees could be the roughest.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Girardi, as it happens, is one of the rare cases where I actually have an opinion on the manager of the year award. He really ought to win it for 2013.

9:50	Comment From Mike Zunino Should I start 2014 in AAA? Not putting up a .300 OBP is a problem of Olivo proportions.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: You should, but you won’t

9:51	Comment From zack Who wins their leagues Cy Young award by a longer margin: Scherzer or Kershaw?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw. Scherzer has fallen back to the pack a little bit

9:51	Comment From Electric Can you (or anybody) put into words what the Yankees offseason is going to look like?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Unsatisfying

9:51	Comment From Spencer If Rivera/Chipper Jones went out like Breaking Bad, what player went out like Lost?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Griffey? I didn’t watch Lost.

9:52	Comment From PJB Are Jack Z and Dayton Moore on the same rebuilding plan timeline

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: So, so many parallels between the Mariners and the Royals

9:52	Comment From Tucker I was in Portland for a day or so last week and ate at Ox, truly delicious. Did I choose wisely for my 1 dinner in Portland?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Very much so. Kudos, Tucker!

9:52	Comment From John If you are the A’s would you rather face the Tigers, Tampa, Cleveland, Tex

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Probably Cleveland, because they’re probably the worst, but you could make an argument for Texas

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Definitely not the Tigers

9:53	Comment From _David_ Would you rather see Felix Hernandez learn the splitter, or not because of the pitch’s injury rep? I know his changeup already moves like one, but a proper splitter might be pretty neat.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t care for it. He has maybe the game’s best changeup so a splitter would do next to nothing for him

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Teach a splitter to Maurer

9:53	Comment From NoBattingGloves Is Joe Kelly’s style of pitching (using sinker to induce ground balls, good enough that Cards Fans should not worry about the difference between his ERA and FIP

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Oh, no, they should worry

9:54	Comment From Sirras One At what point does a player’s platoon split become significant enough that he shouldn’t play every day?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Not for a few years, statistically, but it also depends on scouting input. And whether or not he’s making improvements

9:55

Comment From zack
I heard someone from baseball prospectus speculate that when a pitcher starts throwing about 1.5 MPH slower and is getting lit up, he has actually lost about 2.5 MPH and is overthrowing. This impacts his command and diminishes his performance until they adjust to their new velocity. Do you think there is anything to this and have you seen any evidence for it?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Has probably happened in cases, is probably not a good general rule of thumb, but I like the thought process there

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Every case of diminished velocity should be examined on its own

9:58	Comment From Yanks200910 What teams you think will sign Brian McCann and Shin-Soo Choo

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox…Rangers! I don’t know why the Rangers, but they feel good to me