Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/9/14

September 9, 2014

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s baseball chat!

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: On today’s menu: baseball, of the real kind!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Is there even still fantasy baseball at this point in the season?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I might never know!

9:07	Comment From Sam Since Marcus Stroman has developed his new sinker and is getting an impressive amount of groundballs is he a legit number 2 starter?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: There’s the usual stuff about having to prove yourself for longer before you can be a legit anything, but I remember being surprised when I found that Stroman’s breaking ball compares well to that of Jose Fernandez/Yu Darvish/Corey Kluber. So that made me particularly curious, and while Stroman doesn’t throw that pitch very much, I like his overall profile quite a bit. Remember the height questions? I always hate the height questions.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Stroman is outstanding quite yet, but I buy him as a No. 3 and a No. 2 on his good days

9:09	Comment From Ringtone Composer Cespedes means “lawns” (or maybe “grasses”) in Spanish.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I recognize this as something that I used to know earlier in my life, like details about quicksand and the battleship Bismarck

9:10	Comment From STiVo Is there a prediction market for volcano eruptions?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: No one lives long enough to get paid

9:11	Comment From Section 34 Hey Jeff, it’s been at least two weeks since FanGraphs ran an article about how the Orioles aren’t really that good. What’s wrong with you guys?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Someone did take offense to something I didn’t say yesterday about Nelson Cruz, so at least there’s that

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: This is truly the year of the what?! in the American League, so, sure, go O’s, go crazy

9:12	Comment From Hamilton Porter Would you rather have a Sano, who hasn’t played in a year, or a Gallo who can’t stop striking out?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Sano, while barely even thinking about it

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Now, that’s specific Sano over specific Gallo. If you were to ask a more general question about players with different profiles, I might take longer

9:14	Comment From Ryan Can the Blue Jays be a serious contender next year with a payroll of $140 million?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: They can be a lot like this year’s team, and this year’s team has hung around the fringes while being overall unclutch. I think they’re going to give it another go and it’s in large part going to come down to how the cheaper younger guys produce because the more expensive guys are mostly known assets

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: You can debate whether they should’ve done something massive around the deadline, but now that that’s come and passed, at least they remain in decent shape going forward, and I don’t think they need to make a big splash in order to challenge. Everyone in the division’s going to be decent, but we don’t know the future that precisely and the Blue Jays will be more of a contender than a non-contender

9:17	Comment From J6taKish I know you don’t have fantasy baseball….but do you have baseball fantasies? If so, elaborate

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Carlos Peguero figuring it out

9:17	Comment From Dewey So what do the Reds do now? Would trading Votto be a reload or rebuild?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: They can’t really trade Votto for anything, not with his contract and issues. Instead they’re going to trade one or two starting pitchers, and people will see that as a rebuild, but they’ll be trying to reload at presumably a lower payroll. I don’t have high hopes for them over the next 3-4 years

9:20	Comment From Melky Jeff – Am I in line for a 4/$53M like some scout apparently told Jeff Blair of sportsnet?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I could buy about three-quarters of that

9:20	Comment From Ernie Will the A’s make the playoffs?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: This reminds me, give me a minute to whip up a chat poll…

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: So we’ll see how that goes. I’m not going to issue my answer, because I don’t want to bias the voting

9:22	Comment From Chris Chris Carter’s power numbers are crazy, projections for next year?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s a fun fact for you: second-half Chris Carter has hit 20% groundballs

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: His career mark is 29%. He’s talked about swing adjustments and it certainly looks like he’s getting more consistent loft

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: What’s also happening is that his walk rate is decreasing, so his OBP is slipping, but I could see something like a .320 OBP and a .540 SLG

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: To be honest that’s probably a little bit high, but I’m in a good mood

9:25	Comment From Matt Who’s the comparable for what you think James Paxton will end up being?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve long suggested a healthier and friendlier Erik Bedard, and I’m going to stay with that

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Paxton’s having some strike issues right now, and that’s something a lot of people have seen coming, but he’s really solidified his groundball tendencies, and he’s been difficult to pull the ball in the air against

9:26	Comment From Andy What do you make of the A’s recent run of poor results?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: The boring answer is I don’t have any analytical insight. Not right now. I have to believe they’re a lot better than this and I have to believe this is mostly poorly-timed randomness, but I love that baseball presents these questions every season, and I can’t believe the magnitude of Oakland’s team collapse. Stuff like this makes me feel like a complete idiot for trying to analyze trade-deadline transactions

9:28	Comment From Hamilton Porter Are Sano and Gallo comparable in terms of power and a lack of contact? Who debuts first?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Gallo is a caricature of Sano’s power and contact issues. Gallo in AA: 40% strikeouts. Sano in AA: 29% strikeouts. I feel like we’re going to see Gallo first, but I feel like we’re going to see Sano establish himself first

9:30	Comment From Guest Do you think Mchugh keeps rolling tonight vs the Mariners?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Last eight starts: 7 walks, 47 strikeouts, 13 runs. The Mariners have a decent offense now but I don’t see any reason to expect McHugh to struggle

9:32	Comment From Steve Is writing about baseball 2X a day as a job harder than you thought it’d be? Will you burn yourself out and have to find a new vocation in a few years?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: I can say it gets harder and harder. The stuff that would’ve worked a couple years ago doesn’t have so much of a place now, and you have to constantly try to find new ways to talk about things that have mostly happened before. It’s always a challenge, and it’s probably good for the brain with regard to staving off Alzheimer’s, but there are deep slumps and there’s an ever-present struggle to find new subjects. I also don’t know where this goes. None of us do. What’s the shelf life of an Internet baseball analyst who doesn’t want to work for a team? Ten years from now I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m working in the woods

9:34	Comment From gson Paul Washington at SB Nation seems to believe a Stanton trade to the Cardinals would be a good deal both ways..I don’t see the Marlins accepting any trade that doesn’t start with Wacha and/or Tavarez. What would be your thoughts on a fair deal headlined by Stanton?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: The Cardinals have the assets to trade for Stanton — the Cardinals have the assets to trade for almost anybody. But I don’t think they’re going to do it, because I think the Cardinals prefer diversification and keeping up that rolling competitive window. You deal for Stanton and you’re out four young guys who could contribute cheaply for a combined couple of decades, and the Cardinals just don’t strike me as a big-splash kind of organization

9:37	Comment From Ember Who’s playing SS for the Yankees next year?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: JJ Hardy?

9:38	Comment From THE average sports fan I went to the Reds game last night. It was of course awful. All the energy of a Hospice. Will the Reds have enough payroll flexibility to be a playoff contender in 2015?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it

9:39	Comment From Double Simcoe When an umpire is, for example, consistently calling a wide strike zone and calling similar non-strike pitches strikes — what’s going on there? Is he actually seeing a different zone? Or just trying to amuse himself and mess with the game a little bit?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: If that does actually happen, I imagine it’s in large part due to the pitchers and catchers. Some umpires just have bigger zones than others do, but if a catcher is consistently calling for pitches in wide spots, and if a pitcher is consistently around those spots, the calls will start to come, and it’ll look like the umpire’s being generous

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Or cruel, from a hitter’s perspective

9:40	Comment From Braves Fans No questions to ask. There are no answers out there. Just sadness.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: You don’t even have it the roughest right now

9:40	Comment From Mike of Mike and the Mechanics Fame So.. the team that is underperforming its BaseRuns current record is… the Cubs? (They are -7.) Interesting!

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’ve been better than their record, but then they’ve also had plenty of roster turnover. They shouldn’t truly be that far away from contention, although curiously they have an organizational pattern of recent unclutch performance. I don’t know what to do with that

9:42	Comment From Matt How much of the three good AL West teams’ run differentials are their being actually good, and how much is a result of just playing the Texas teams a bunch?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Oakland’s at +97 without Houston/Texas

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Anaheim’s at +93

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Seattle’s at +82. The Mariners actually lost the season series to the Rangers, 10-9

9:43	Comment From erghammer Could Mookie Betts be the new Joe Morgan? Mookie is quietly having a good first year in MLB and sits at .288/.359/.466. Joe’s first full year in MLB was .271/.373/.418.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll wait some time before I start comparing Mookie Betts to an awesome Hall-of-Famer

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: But I will say that this is interesting: Betts has a swing rate of 34%. Out-of-zone 16%. His discipline is no mirage, although he has yet to be forced into an adjustment period

9:45	Comment From Mike of Mike and the Mechanics Fame Oops.. I just misrepresented the truth. The Rockies are most underperforming their BaseRuns wins (-9), not the Cubs.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Hadn’t seen this. The Rockies are a disaster!

9:46	Comment From Igor How many more seasons will Ichiro play?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: He might get one more, but to be honest he probably shouldn’t

9:47

Comment From Section 34
Seriously, I’m surprised smart baseball writers haven’t noticed this trend. The Angels are the best team in baseball, and they have all mediocre starters now; they’ve gotten even better since losing their ace. The Orioles are the second-best team in baseball (10th best on Fangraphs?) and have all mediocre starters with no ace.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Is there a trend somewhere in there I’ve missed?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The Angels are #1 in position-player WAR. The Orioles are #2.

9:48	Comment From Steve You wrote that Lucroy could be MVP based on his defensive contribution, he wasn’t mentioned, but do you think Heyward should be in the discussion as well?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Heyward has hit worse than Lucroy, his team also isn’t in playoff position, and while Heyward is a really good defender, Lucroy gets at least a fraction of that massive framing edge. To me, Lucroy’s the far superior candidate

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Heyward should be acknowledged as an awesome player, but not as a league MVP in 2014

9:50	Comment From The Oriole Bird The O’s have the 5th-highest BaseRuns win% in MLB. So that’s interesting, right? They’re outperforming for sure–but they’re good!

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles have baseball’s highest second-half WAR, at 15.4. The Nationals are second, the Royals are third

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: (The Reds are last)

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles now are earning their success. They’re probably a little lucky to have their overall win total, but they’re a legitimate team, and there’s nothing wrong with identifying them as both good and fortunate. Most teams with excellent W/L records are both good and a little fortunate

9:52	Comment From Section 34 To finish that question: Is this a new trend in team construction? In an era of diminished offense, are ace starters overrated, and sluggers underrated?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: If anything I think that sluggers are overrated, because more and more teams are on the lookout for power. The Orioles and Angels are just succeeding in a way that some teams succeed sometimes. Lots of different ways to be good

9:53	Comment From Nick Your gut pick for this year’s two World Series teams – GO!

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Nats and Tigers?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: My gut doesn’t have a very strong feeling

9:54	Comment From Will What do you expect next year from Jose Fernandez and Matt Harvey?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Really good pitching, delayed

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Will be interesting to see if Fernandez continues to so heavily favor his breaking ball

9:54	Comment From STiVo The Cubs are fun to watch, aren’t they?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: More fun than the Reds

9:55	Comment From Ringtone Composer Does Baez’s power rank 80 on the 20-80 scale?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Kiley would give you a better answer, but I’m going to guess he’s 70-75

9:55	Comment From Pale Hose Are the Royals and Orioles examples of why it makes sense for a projected 78-ish win team to add talent?

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: Most simply, I think if you project to be even ~average, you should try to contend, while of course not giving away too much. If you’re, say, this yea’rs White Sox, you don’t want to pay out the nose to bring in a Giancarlo Stanton, but the error bars are so massive around the team projections that you should try to be good unless you really really think that you will not be good. It doesn’t take a lot for a mediocre team to challenge for a playoff spot in September

9:57	Comment From Rob W Has the A’s collapse been a fluke? Are they looking at serious problems next year?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: If there’s something major going on, it’s beyond what we can identify from the outside. Like, in the hypothetical where they really DO just miss Cespedes in the middle of the order, we can’t prove that. Probably, it’s awful timing, but they’ll be good again in 2015. We’ll then see about 2016

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: The A’s don’t operate with a window that expands beyond the current season. Can’t afford to

9:58	Comment From IndianaMike Who should Mariners fans want to face in a one game WC game, the Athletics or Tigers?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: The Royals

9:59	Comment From Ed Would a collapse out of the playoff picture by the Oakland A’s be considered worse than the Red Sox collapse of 2013? One of the worst ever, considering where they stood in July and the availability of two wild card spots?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I assume you mean the 2011 Red Sox, and not the 2013 Red Sox who won the World Series