Jesse Winker’s Showing More Punch Lately

It’s been an eventful couple of weeks for Jesse Winker. On the heels of an exceptional but injury-shortened campaign with the Reds and then a mid-March trade to the Mariners, he hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations, yet earlier this month, the team signed him to an extension that will carry him to free agency. On Sunday, Winker found himself at the center of the season’s biggest brawl, a spectacle that produced some unexpected payoffs as well as a boatload of suspensions, including a seven-gamer for the 29-year-old left fielder.

The atmosphere on Sunday in Anaheim was already tense in the wake of Mariners reliever Erik Swanson sailing a 95-mph fastball too close to the head of Mike Trout — who last week in Seattle homered five times in a five-game series, with four of the homers decisive — in the ninth inning of Saturday night’s game. Trout was understandably upset, though Swanson claimed he was merely trying to work up and in to a weak spot in the three-time MVP’s strike zone. The Angels, who lost after Trout was subsequently intentionally walked and then Shohei Ohtani retired, weren’t amused; as the epic breakdown from Jomboy Media showed, they spent a lot of time glaring and squawking as the Mariners celebrated their victory.

On Sunday, things escalated quickly. Angels starter Andrew Wantz’s fifth pitch of the day, a 93-mph fastball, whizzed behind the head of Mariners rookie Julio Rodríguez, prompting a warning from home plate umpire John Bacon. Winker came to the plate to lead off the second inning and was hit in his right hip by a 91-mph fastball. After jawing with catcher Max Stassi, gesturing toward Wantz and stepping out in front of home plate, he headed toward the Angels’ dugout, where he was met by a rather large contingent. His teammates quickly joined him, and a full-on scrum ensued, with Winker and teammate J.P. Crawford among those throwing punches.

Wantz, incidentally, was a last-minute replacement for scheduled starter Jose Suarez and was making his first major league start after 32 relief appearances dating back to last year. The Mariners later said that they believed the switch was made with the intention of Wantz acting as an enforcer, and that the 26-year-old righty should have been ejected after nearly hitting Rodríguez, but in his postgame comments, Wantz denied any intent with regards either to that pitch or the one that hit Winker. Winker, for his part, felt that if Wantz had been ejected for hitting him, none of the fighting would have occurred, and that Angels manager Phil Nevin and the injured Anthony Rendon (seen hitting Winker in the face with his left — non-injured — hand) instigated the brawl from the dugout.

In the end, just about everybody got his licks in, including some coaches and Mariners manager Scott Servais. Wantz and teammates Raisel Iglesias and Ryan Tepera were ejected, as were Winker, Crawford, and Rodríguez, plus Nevin and Servais. Iglesias heaved a case of sunflower seeds onto the field…

That’ll show em pic.twitter.com/61JMpLDYzy

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) June 26, 2022

…and Winker gave Anaheim fans a two-fingered salute upon departing.

https://twitter.com/MrMatthewCFB/status/1541159539990478849

The festivities did carry a silver lining or two. One Mariners fan in Arkansas ordered a pepperoni pizza to be sent to the visitors’ clubhouse; Winker graciously acknowledged receiving it, and over 300 Mariners fans chipped in with tips for the delivery man, who received a welcome windfall. Meanwhile, a seven-year-old Reds fan named Abigail, who made news last year when her favorite player, Joey Votto, was ejected in the first inning from a game she attended, was at the game to watch Winker and Eugenio Suárez. Winker sent Abigail a baseball inscribed with an apology and a message: “Sorry I was ejected! I hope to see you at another game soon.”

Abigail is THRILLED to receive a wonderful & sweet surprise!!! Thank you so much, Mr. Winker & the @Mariners ????? Go Reds & go Mariners!!!!! #welovebaseball pic.twitter.com/krasucNLl4

— Kristin (@SuperBarry11) June 26, 2022

Major League Baseball was nonetheless unamused and handed down a total of 12 suspensions, with Nevin drawing the longest one at 10 games, backing up the Mariners’ view (and, as captured by Jomboy’s lip-reading, Wantz’s own admission to Winker) that the team’s actions were intentional and retaliatory. Winker, as previously noted, was handed seven games; I’m guessing it would have been five if not for his offending digits. Rendon, who’s out for the remainder of the season due to right wrist surgery, drew a five-game suspension to be served when he’s back on the active roster next year; he’s also prohibited from sitting on the Angels’ bench for their next seven games. Wantz and Tepera received three-game suspensions, Iglesias got two games, and four Angels staffers (assistant pitching coach Dom Chiti, catching coach Bill Haselman, bench coach Ray Montgomery, and interpreter Manny Del Campo) were rung up with suspensions ranging from one to five games. On the Mariners’ side, Crawford got a five-game suspension and Rodríguez a two-gamer. Wantz (who elected not to appeal), Nevin, Chiti, and Del Campo began serving their suspensions on Tuesday night, with the rest of the staffers’ breaks staggered.

All of the other players elected to appeal their suspensions, including Winker, whose performance beyond the melee is worth a closer look. Dialing back first to his time in Cincinnati, he was in the midst of the best of his five major league seasons last year when he was sidelined by an intercostal strain suffered on August 15. He had played 109 of the Reds’ 119 games to that point and had already made his first All-Star team and set career highs in homers (24), RBI (77), and WAR (3.1). But while the Reds were initially hopeful of a minimum stay on the injured list, he was sidelined for over a month, then re-aggravated the injury in his first game back, on September 17, and didn’t play another game. Still, it was his second straight campaign with a wRC+ of at least 140; after hitting .255/.388/.544 (143 wRC+) with 12 homers in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he finished at .305/.394/.556 (148 wRC+).

The Reds, who might have made the playoffs with a healthy Winker and a few other breaks (not to mention better roster management), chose to tear things down instead. After the lockout ended in March, they traded Winker and Suárez to the Mariners in exchange for lefty prospect Brandon Williamson, righty Justin Dunn, outfielder Jake Fraley, and a player to be named later, who ended up being righty prospect Connor Phillips.

Whether due to the short spring training, the change from a very hitter-friendly environment to a much more pitcher-friendly one, or the deadened baseball and adverse hitting conditions, Winker struggled mightily in April, hitting just .169/.326/.197 (69 wRC+); in 89 PA he produced only two extra-base hits, both doubles. He was subpar but more respectable in May (.243/.301/.350, 92 wRC+ in 113 PA) and finally homered for the first time on May 5, and has heated up in June (.259/.429/.457, 167 wRC+ in 105 PA). That crunches down to a .227/.352/.341 line and a 111 wRC+ — respectable, but odd-looking and underwhelming, highly dependent upon his AL-high 16.0% walk rate. Meanwhile, his career-low .114 ISO is less than half of last year’s .251.

What gives? Winker’s quality of contact has suffered with the move. He’s suddenly hitting the ball in the air more often, and at unproductive angles:

Winker’s average exit velocity is down by nearly three full miles per hour relative to last year, and his average launch angle is up over six degrees. He’s barreling the ball less frequently and hitting it in the air more often, but not very hard. I’m not sure what the exact parameters of the “Under%” are, but they’re poorly hit balls with high launch angles; on an MLB-wide basis, 25.5% of balls have been hit in such fashion this year, with an average exit velo of 85.8 degrees, an average launch angle of 45.6 degrees, an expected batting average of .067, and an expected slugging percentage of .134. They’re virtually automatic outs, in other words, and Winker is hitting about 50% more of those than last year, Looking at it from a more traditional vantage, he’s already hit 11 infield fly balls, matching last year’s total in 178 fewer plate appearances; by comparison, he hit 12 in 901 PA from 2018 to ’20, that while hitting for a 124 wRC+.

In analyzing Winker’s breakout last year, one thing I noted was that pulled fly balls made up a greater share of his batted balls than before and that he was getting more mileage out of them. He’s actually hitting them at an even greater clip this year than last, but the payoff hasn’t been there:

Some of this may have to do with Winker moving from one of the majors’ most homer-conducive parks to one that’s slightly homer-suppressing; Great American Ballpark had a 113 park home run factor for lefties last year, compared to T-Mobile’s 96. Winker hit six pulled fly balls at home last year, with four of them hits, all homers, for a 2.667 SLG; this year, he’s already hit eight such balls at home but has only one hit, a homer, to show for it, and a .500 SLG. That’s a very small sample and doesn’t fully explain Winker’s fall-off, but it’s additionally worth noting that he’s hitting just .198/.328/.283 (95 wRC+) at home and .248/.369/.383 (121 wRC+) on the road, that after having rather even splits over the previous two seasons (wRC+ of 146 at home, 148 away).

Pitch-wise, Winker’s performance has eroded considerably relative to last year when it comes to four-seam fastballs and curves, even though his whiff rates on those pitches have improved (his strikeout rate in general has only climbed from 15.5% to 17.8%). A whole lot of that erosion owes to the gap between his actual and Statcast-expected numbers:

Those gaps carry over into his aggregate numbers:

Granted, some of this will come out in the wash once the expected stats are recalibrated, but for now, they show that Winker’s xSLG is in the vicinity of his 2018–19 marks and generally respectable. His 117-point shortfall in slugging percentage puts him in the 88th percentile among qualifiers. Ouch.

Winker recently dismissed the notion that his woes were mechanical and went 9-for-20 with four extra-base hits and seven walks in the six games between that dismissal and Saturday’s fracas. The surge began just days after he and the Mariners avoided arbitration via a two-year, $14.5 million deal covering this season and next, his last one before reaching free agency. After making $3.15 million last season, he sought $7 million this year, with the Mariners offering $5.4 million; the sides avoided a hearing by meeting more or less in the middle ($6.25 million for 2022) with a bump to $8.25 million for next year. Via Cot’s Contracts, the deal also includes award bonuses ($150,000 for MVP, $100,000 for World Series MVP, $50,000 each for All Star election, LCS MVP, Silver Slugger, and Gold Glove, and $25,000 for each All Star selection), and, for 2023, plate appearances bonuses ($100,000 apiece for reaching 500 and 550 PA, $200,000 for reaching 600 PA). The Gold Glove is particularly unlikely given that Winker is at -13 DRS and -9 RAA in left field over the past two seasons, plus he hasn’t reached 500 PA in a season yet due to injuries, but if he does stay healthy and performs well, he’ll get a bit more scratch.

Maybe Winker’s improved performance has something to do with the additional security of having next year’s deal settled; after all, the Mariners are deep in outfielders, and continued struggles would have opened up the possibility of a non-tender. What is certain is that if the Mariners (34–41) are to have any shot at reaching the playoffs, they’ll probably need him to perform at something closer to his 2020–21 levels, both before and after he serves his upcoming suspension.