Jonathan Lucroy Is Back in the Best-Catcher Conversation
The current major-league leader in WAR for a catcher is Jonathan Lucroy. All right! Go home, we’re finished.
I’m only kidding, but only kind of. My job here is to offer more detail, but now you’ve got the thesis. Jonathan Lucroy has been playing like a really good catcher. This is important, because last year, Lucroy didn’t play like a really good catcher. And this is extra important, because the year before that, Lucroy did play like a really good catcher. We went over all this during the offseason, but back then, we didn’t know which Lucroy would show up in 2016. A good one, is the answer to that.
Lucroy shined never brighter than he did in 2014. He was, all together, a contact-hitting everyday catcher with power, patience, and pitch-framing skills. The only thing he didn’t really have was recognizability, but that wasn’t his fault. And on account of the whole skillset, it could’ve justifiably been argued that Lucroy was the best catcher in the game. I don’t know if he was or wasn’t — I just know he had a case. Somewhere during the summer, I made that case. I’d long been a Lucroy supporter, and he had clearly entered the upper tier.
But then, down he tumbled. I guess I don’t need to keep summarizing the Lucroy biography, but 2015 was rough, with injuries threatening both Lucroy’s hitting and defense. This is what made the prospect of trading Lucroy so difficult: the Brewers saw an affordable quality backstop, but other teams saw question marks. Lucroy sustained a late concussion, after which he didn’t catch. Teams were hesitant to trade for a catcher who most recently hadn’t caught. This seemed to put the Brewers in a bind, where they couldn’t get what they wanted, but there was risk in hanging on. What if Lucroy didn’t rebound? What if it proved too hard to sell a catcher midseason?
Now we’re back to where the post started. The current major-league leader in WAR for a catcher is Jonathan Lucroy. It still isn’t the easiest thing to move a catcher in the middle of the year, because of the relationships that form between catchers and pitchers. But it’s not an impossibility, and Lucroy has answered most of the on-field questions. Teams interested in adding a catcher ought to be more interested in Lucroy than they were in December.
As durability goes, Lucroy has had no problem assuming his familiar position. Yadier Molina has caught more innings than anyone, and that’s also familiar, but Lucroy is in second, between Molina and Salvador Perez. Wait, no, turns out I’m wrong — third place is J.T. Realmuto. That’s what I get for educated guessing. Lucroy, anyway, is way up there. The concussion hasn’t cost him his spot. That concern has evaporated.
And so now we consider Lucroy as a hitter. Here’s Lucroy as a hitter:
Back to normal, pretty much. It’s like last year never happened. Now, in truth, it’s not back to normal-normal. The wRC+ looks right, but the process has changed. Lucroy has made less contact than he used to, but he’s also hit more fly balls than he used to. Power has followed, suggesting that Lucroy has made a fairly normal trade-off. Instead of searching for contact and singles, Lucroy has thought a little more about doubles and homers, and that’s not making him any better or worse. All that really matters is that he’s a good-hitting catcher, and he doesn’t have a worrisome platoon split. And even his reduced contact rate is still better than average.
So Lucroy has caught and caught often, and he’s hit as well as he used to hit. He’s even had pretty good success throwing out runners. The last thing I want to look at is his pitch-framing. That skill allowed Lucroy to become popular among the saber crowd. At the same time, year over year, the numbers showed a peculiar decline. I wrote about it in January, and I didn’t really have a good explanation. But, time provides some answers. Here’s a table of Lucroy’s framing statistics, showing runs better or worse than average per 5,000 chances. I’m including the more complicated numbers from Baseball Prospectus, and the simpler numbers from StatCorner.
| Year | Baseball Prospectus | StatCorner |
| 2010 | 34.6 | 19.5 |
| 2011 | 32.0 | 22.4 |
| 2012 | 24.5 | 16.6 |
| 2013 | 20.2 | 15.7 |
| 2014 | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| 2015 | 1.1 | 5.8 |
| 2016 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
Lucroy doesn’t seem to be back to where he was, for whatever reason. Those +20s are gone, and I’m not sure why. But a modestly encouraging takeaway is that the decline, at least, hasn’t continued, if these numbers are correct. There’s even a slight hint of a bounceback. Jonathan Lucroy might no longer be a league-elite pitch-framer, but he should still be considered above-average. It’s something. It’s more of a strength than a weakness.
So Lucroy is durable, and he’s hitting, and he’s catching, and he’s throwing. As with anyone, you can’t simply throw a whole season away, but just looking at the landscape right now, I think there’s again an argument to be made that Lucroy is the best backstop in the game. If I actually had to make a choice, I’d probably still go with Buster Posey, but that’s not obviously true, and besides, being maybe second-best behind Posey is no insult. Lucroy is having as good a season as he could’ve wanted, as he’s put 2015 almost entirely behind him. That’s not bad for a player on a rebuilding ballclub.
The rebuilding part is why Lucroy is of particular interest. It’s always fun to talk about who might be the best players at a given position, but those players typically aren’t available in trade talks. So Lucroy ought to be the best catcher out there, and while I’m sure it’s bittersweet for Brewers fans to think about all this, this is the way these processes go. You have to make tough, cold decisions, and I doubt the Brewers will be good before Lucroy hits free agency after 2017. He’s someone about ready to be exchanged, and the consolation is the return package. He’s worth a hefty one, whether that comes from the Rangers, or the White Sox, or the Rays, or somebody else. There aren’t many everyday catchers who get moved in the middle of the year, but there aren’t many everyday catchers in Lucroy’s present situation. He’s the Brewers’ most desirable sellable piece, and everybody recognizes it.
I still don’t know what to make of the framing stuff, but overall, Jonathan Lucroy is back to being maybe the best catcher in baseball. That’s how the Brewers tried to sell him over the winter. Now — now, they don’t look so crazy.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
On the pitch framing point, I’ve wondered if the extremes are starting to be compressed as people have become more aware of the value it can generate (I know the topic has been written about more in the last few years, not sure if this extends to front offices). Seems like if you’re athletic enough to play catcher, it’s a low hanging fruit type thing to improve your value.
Is there any evidence that the floor has been raised and therefore, historically strong framing catchers like Lucroy are closer to average with a relatively unchanged skill set?
I was thinking the exact same thing. Also, with how popular framing has become, is it possible that the umps are learning how to “see through” framing better than they used to, and calling balls and strikes without taking the catcher into account?
The only problem I have with this theory is that pitch framing is essentially an optical illusion. That’s like saying that if you watch a Criss Angel show 100 times, you’ll get any better at figuring out his trick and that once figured out you can somehow then see the slight of hand with your naked eye. Optical illusions are near impossible to see, even when you know what they illusionist is doing. Pitch framing is much the same, it’s essentially positioning the body in a way to fool the umpire into believing the ball took an alternate path than it really did. There’s a reason it’s a skill. Just because we are just figuring this out with sabermetrics, doesn’t mean that the catchers haven’t been doing it for a while and that umpires haven’t had a chance to overcome this pitch manipulation. That is to say, they see different catchers setting up differently, that part isn’t new, they see different glove positions, they don’t need an article to sit behind a plate 40-50 games a year and recognize that the catcher is trying to work them.
Agreed that catchers have probably known about this phenomenon forever. It was only recently quantified in terms of run value though. Maybe catchers have made a bigger effort to improve after realizing the extent of its value.
I think this is a good point, but I also think that the pitcher has as much to do with it as the catcher does. If you look at the pitchers that the system brought through MKE, they were low on UCL replacements, and high on the over the top throw. This pairs well with a breaking ball that is moving downhill vs. across when the catchers gets it. Lucroy had one of the best low zones in the majors, and if the pitchers aren’t placing as much emphasis on this, it would stand to reason that his numbers would go down.
I would venture a guess that whomever is catching for Gallardo will have a good low zone rating going forward.
I’d wager that it also has something to do with the pitching staff… If you have a pitcher that puts the ball within 2 inches of the strike zone versus 4-5 inches, it may effect how much he can add. Pitch framing is purely added strikes versus subtracted balls. If you get 1000 pitches within 2 inches of the strike zone and another guy gets 2000 pitches within 2 inches, you can be more effective and still not have a better pitch frame rating. Essentially, I think he’s still effective in the zone at not losing strikes, but he’s just not able to make close pitches look like strikes because he has less close pitches to manipulate.
Also a team being better at filling the strike zone like 2016 Clayton Kershaw would offer less opportunities as well. My overall thought process would be that of all skills that could erode with time, the least likely for Lucroy would be catcher framing. My grandfather was a minor league catcher and in his 60s on an air tank (emphysema), he had freaky strong hands. I’d bet on Lucroy becoming a marginal hitter before I’d bet on him not being able to stop a ball traveling off the plate, so it looks like a strike. I guess what I’m saying is that if you take elite BB/K pitchers, the benefit of a good pitch framer might be marginalized. Just like looking at pitch framing stats with wild AA pitchers might be a test of futility. I think we should use Lucroy as a learning opportunity that pitching staff can effect framing stats and that bad and great doesn’t benefit like marginally good staffs.
I think he would be a great addition for the White Sox…
https://mlb2016blogs.wordpress.com/2016/06/08/why-lucroy-to-the-white-sox-would-make-perfect-sense/
Edgar Martinez in his 50s would probably be an improvement over half their bats. Sorry to say, but that’s the understatement of the year. Find me a team he wouldn’t be a great addition for… a top 3 catcher makes team better? You don’t say?!
I could say the same thing about the Mariners and 90% of the league. Chris Iannetta destroys lefties and is behind the plate way too much right now and is wearing down. As shown last night, he can still be effective against righties, but still carries a very distinct platoon advantage against lefties. This would actually make Lucroy perfect for the Mariners, as he has absolutely destroyed righties and struggled against lefties all season. It would keep both catchers fresh and if Iannetta has had success against a specific right-handed pitcher, than you can give Lucroy a game at first to rest someone. Plus Lucroy isn’t going to fix the White Sox by himself and with Quintana and Sale, he would offer little in framing benefit as they already are all up in that strike zone like a prom dress! The Mariners are a couple pieces away, the White Sox are about 4-5 good players away…
I just read the article, so the perfect solution for the writer is for Lucroy to catch against LHP when he’s got a 54 wRC+ on the season against lefties. Then move him to DH or 1B against all RHP, so he can be a slightly above average bat first player who offers no defensive value 65% of the time. Which in the Central would be even more comical as almost all pitchers in the division are RH except the ones throwing for what would be his own team. If anything the White Sox might be one of the worst teams to make this trade as it would gut an already barren system to add a player who offers little improvement with a suspect offense…
Please justify the thumbs-down Alex87878, so I make a tongue-in-cheek comment about the White Sox, the rest of that comment is right as rain! Go look at the team splits, then go look at the overall production by wRC+… Their offense is pretty much crap besides Eaton and Frazier.
I did not give a thumbs down…. But I can if you would like. I invite the feedback/criticism. There was probably one line in the entire article about Lucroy being able to play at 1B. That was not the point. He would get the majority of the time behind the plate. Obviously what the white sox have now is not working, and a top 3 catcher would be a benefit to any team. But the white sox are in buy-mode, have shown a willingness to deal, have two catchers on one-year contracts, and despite what you believe, have far from a barren farm system. The Brewers are clearly looking to deal him. The Mariners have Iannetta who is much better than Avila or Navarro. Again, I did not say that Lucroy would be a platoon player, I said that he could be used at 1B when Avila is in the lineup…. Other than KC, I do not know of a team who has a catcher that plays all 162 games. I also never said that the White Sox were only one piece away from contending, so that argument is moot. They they clearly think they can win it, and I identify the area that they can improve most in as being C based on what is available on the trade market.
You say pitch framing doesn’t matter… well it does, no matter how good your pitchers are. And if Sale and Quintana are so good, then the white sox are good enough to contend. A great 1-2 at the top of the rotation goes a long way, especially in the AL.
It seems that you went into this article with the goal of mis-stating information so that you could shut down ideas. I will be laughing in a month when Lucroy is moved to the White Sox. Like DSTT says, Lucroy is fine against righties in his career. There is more to baseball than one stat as well…. but if wRC+ is your choice, then how about this:
Lucroy career wRC+ against RHP = 108
Career against LHP = 123
….so despite all of what you think you proved, you are completely wrong.
I didn’t read the link so I’m not sure if it really said play him at 1st, because yes that would be stupid. They have 2 below average defensive catchers. If you want his bat in the lineup just have him catch other than days to rest him. However you using 1/3 a season for a sample size to say he can’t hit lefties is dumb. Lucroy would be a big get, Maybe take matt garzas contract to lessen the prospect cost.
It said play him at first on days that Avila is in the lineup, because almost no catchers play 162 games nowadays, but did not say to platoon him.
We have a guy spamming this thread who apparently doesn’t understand how short sample sizes work. But, yeah, let use a player’s 58 PA this year (and ~100 last year) vs. LHP to make the argument that said player can not hit LHP despite hitting them very well throughout his career.
Hitting well throughout his career, doesn’t mean you go against what he’s doing this year… Players develope and change as they age… My guess without looking at heat maps was that lefties are busting him inside and missing up and away, which conforms with arm angle and trajectory… Which was confirmed if you go look. Southpaws stay outside and up to righties when they fly open while not finishing and if they are finishing their pitches, the movement of their pitches will be towards the righty, where he’s having a hard time with bat speed it looks like. With righties he’s being pitched, middle middle, middle away and down away. Places where he can get extended and drop the head, creating more bat speed
Could he hit lefties better throughout the year? Sure, but due to his layoff last year and declining bat speed as he ages, plus as you pointed out, an over-abundance of righties facing him, he’s just not getting the reps against lefties to fix the flaw in his swing and adjust to the locations they are pitching him. That won’t get fixed in the AL Central. He’s looking for the ball down and away 80% of the time and inside/up 20%, so it’s a rough adjustment. Also his increased power derives from making later contact, which is why his BABIP is lower, while his slugging is higher. Which is why hitters increase power and drop off in contact as they get older. Something which concerned some about Stanton’s contract based on his already borderline contact rates and which left people curious about Hamilton’s abilities going forward when he signed his 5 year deal.
Now if you funnel the data to fastballs, he literally is hitting like a pitcher against FA (4 seam), FT (2 seam), FC (cutter) against both hands, but has middle middle and middle up/slightly away as the only place he can hit and he’s killing it there. Which if you break down that sliver of SLG bliss against fastballs, all of those are where he’s sitting on a fastball, read this as cheating and starting his swing early. In other words, when pitchers start throwing fastballs ahead in the count or on the edges because they can burn a pitch, he can’t recognize and react in time, he’s screwed. He needs to be in a fastball count to hit it and if someone is savvy enough to create this scouting report, they can know to throw a breaking ball on 3-1 or 2-0 instead of a fastball down the pipe.
Just to be clear with the trolling (read: not looking up stats before talking), you have to go back to 2013 to find a year where Lucroy hit better against LHP. 2014, his OPS was within 1 percentage point (.837/.838). That’s 317 PAs over 3 years, which is pretty clear sample size to start making some assumptions and that’s just against LHP. Against all pitchers the sample size balloons to 1293 PAs total. So if it was 2013, you and the White Sox would be right to follow the writer’s recommendation or you could look at all those new fangled stats to see what’s really going on!