Jose Abreu Vs. the Scouting Reports

Today’s the day that Jose Abreu wins the 2014 American League Rookie of the Year Award. Seems like they’re doing a whole announcement show, and nothing’s official yet because they don’t want to spoil the suspense, but the suspense has already long been spoiled, by Abreu and by the rest of the AL rookie class. There’s been a little bit of chatter that Abreu might have an MVP case. Now, he’s not going to have an MVP case, as reflected by the voting, but if a guy is getting talked up in some circles as a dark-horse MVP, he’s your Rookie of the Year.

A little over a year ago, the White Sox signed Abreu to a six-year contract. At that point, it looked like a heavy investment in a player whose value would be entirely tied up in his bat. Now, Abreu’s looks like one of the more valuable contracts in the game, as he’s coming off a season that saw him answer most of the questions about his productivity. Abreu wasn’t an outstanding defender at first base. He wasn’t a stealth quality base-runner, so everything really did come down to the hitting, but the hitting was phenomenal from start to finish, and it seems worthwhile now to reflect upon Abreu’s scouting reports around the time of his signing.

Conveniently, we can stare at this article from Jerry Crasnick in September 2013. He spoke to a small handful of talent evaluators, and, let’s ignore the stuff about Abreu’s defense and speed and body. Let’s consider only what was said about his offense. We’ll go in order, first showing the report, then examining data from Abreu’s 2014. In this way, we can see how and where Abreu might have exceeded expectations.

1

Multiple scouts used the term “slider-speed bat” in reference to Abreu. Translation: He might be challenged against pitchers who can crowd him with fastballs on the inner half of the plate.
[…]
“If you throw him 90-92 [mph] inside, he gets beat a lot,” said a scout for a National League club. “I don’t think he’s going to hit a good hard fastball in.”

Now, there’s one important point to make here, before we proceed: it’s hard to hit a good inside fastball. Lots of good hitters get challenged with heat under the hands, because that’s a perceived weakness. Some guys look for inside heat, but then they can be vulnerable to stuff away, because they’re focused on the pull side. It’s not an easy thing to cover the whole hitting zone, and when you’re as good at going the other way as Abreu is, that means you could have a corresponding weakness.

But anyhow, we can turn to Baseball Savant. Let’s look at right-handed hitters, against fastballs and fastball types over or beyond the inner half of the plate. The league average against such pitches was a .438 slugging percentage. Abreu came in at .506, far from the league lead, but ranked above the middle. Some other names in his vicinity: Adam Jones, Mike Napoli, Adrian Beltre, and Aramis Ramirez. If Abreu had a weakness in there, it wasn’t often exploited.

There are also some other indicators we can look at. How’d the league pitch to Abreu? For example, Mike Trout has a known weakness against fastballs up, so Trout saw a lot of fastballs up. Abreu saw 31% inside fastballs, a little above the righty league average of 28%. But Abreu’s overall fastball rate was one of the lowest in baseball, as pitchers preferred to try to get him out more often with slower stuff. This could explain why: Abreu ranked third in the game in run value against fastballs. He was first against cutters. He was first in value against fastballs per 100. Abreu clobbered fastballs. He clobbered a lot of fastballs over the plate, but if he has a weak spot, it’s tucked way in there.

2

“But there’s a lot of marginal pitching out there. The No. 1 and 2 starters are going to get him out, but he’s going to feast on the 3, 4 and 5 guys. That’s where he’s going to make his money.”

The best pitchers get most guys out. We can acknowledge that up front. But now, let’s look at Abreu. This is a little subjective, but I went through his log, prevented myself from seeing his results, and created this group of high-quality starting-pitching opponents:

• Anibal Sanchez
• Clayton Kershaw
• Collin McHugh
• Corey Kluber
• Dallas Keuchel
• David Price
• Felix Hernandez
• Garrett Richards
• Hisashi Iwakuma
• Jake Arrieta
• James Shields
• Jeff Samardzija
• Jon Lester
• Matt Shoemaker
• Max Scherzer
• Phil Hughes

Against that group of pitchers, Abreu batted 113 times. He hit for a .305 average, and a .514 slugging percentage. He homered off Kershaw, Kluber, Price, and Richards.

3

But his raw power compares favorably with Puig, Cespedes and White Sox outfielder Dayan Viciedo, who all have the ability to scatter clouds when they catch a ball just right.

“He has monstrous power,” said a scout who began following Abreu at the 2009 IBAF World Cup.

This past season, 146 players qualified for the batting title. Out of all of them, Abreu finished first with a 26.9% HR/FB. In other words, more than a quarter of Abreu’s fly balls left the yard he was hitting in. Right behind him: Giancarlo Stanton. A few more percentage points behind him: Chris Davis. There have been only two higher rates since 2009. Abreu wasn’t constantly hitting the ball 450 feet, but there are a few ways to show raw power. You can show peak power, and you can end up with home runs despite mis-hitting the ball, or hitting it on a line. Abreu hit home runs of all types.

Not surprisingly, Abreu wound up with a top-five finish in isolated power. Additionally, he was one of nine players to finish with an isolated power of at least .250 to all three fields. That’s a group with names like Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew McCutchen.

4

“He’s crafty. I think he’ll make the adjustments.”

This is a stretch, but I just want somewhere to put this. Last season, Abreu finished sixth in baseball in OPS with the pitcher ahead in the count. He finished third in baseball in OPS in two-strike counts. Despite what the contact numbers might indicate, Abreu was not an easy hitter to put away, in putaway situations.

5

Another expressed concern that Abreu looks “confused” against breaking balls and thought he could benefit from a little seasoning in the upper minors. Once Abreu gets the hang of major league pitching, the consensus is that he has the strength to hit 30 homers by accident.

By run values, Abreu was indeed a little below average facing curveballs. However, against sliders, he finished in the upper fifth, and he also had some success against changeups, splitters, and knuckleballs. An interesting part of Abreu’s season: before the All-Star break, he struck out 24% of the time, and he drew unintentional walks 4% of the time. After the break, he struck out 18% of the time, and he drew unintentional walks 9% of the time. The improvement in K-BB% was the second-biggest in baseball, just a bit behind Jedd Gyorko, as Abreu became less of a slugger and more of a hitter. To whatever extent he was bothered by breaking stuff, it didn’t stop him from hitting north of .300.

6

“Hitting-wise, he reminds me a lot of Dayan Viciedo,” said a scout. “He’s just not as athletic. This guy has more power than Kendrys Morales. But Morales is a better hitter for me.”

A second evaluator compares Abreu with Angels prospect C.J. Cron, a former first-round pick who hit .274 with 14 home runs in the Double-A Texas League this season. And another scout told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that Abreu has “Pedro Alvarez-type power with more hit-ability and the same body type, too.”

Dayan Viciedo owns a 95 career wRC+. Kendrys Morales is at 111. Cron just finished at 113. Alvarez stands at 104. As a rookie, Abreu came in at 165. He’s projected by Steamer for a 143. Pedro Alvarez-type power with more hit-ability? That sounds like Pedro Alvarez, but good, which sounds reasonable now. Jose Abreu is a lot like Pedro Alvarez when he’s going well. And that guy’s an All-Star.

7

“If he is simply what he is right now, he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman with ’80’ raw power, who guesses and kills mistakes and inferior pitching but struggles against top-quality guys,” the scout said. “That’s not a bad floor, actually, and that’s the reason why he’ll get paid anyway. But he may disappoint the expectations of ‘best hitter on the planet’ that some have already placed on him.”

Given his swing-and-miss tendencies, and given how frequently he goes out of the zone, it would be hard to buy Abreu as the best hitter on the planet. For that title, you’d be looking for a little better control of the strike zone. Jose Abreu isn’t the best hitter in baseball. But then, last year, the gap between him and first place in wRC+ was six points. Steamer this year projects him right between Paul Goldschmidt and Buster Posey. Jose Abreu isn’t the best hitter in baseball. But based on Year 1, he sure is awful close.