Michael Cuddyer, Already a Met
Michael Cuddyer wasn’t expected to receive a qualifying offer from the Rockies, so, he received a qualifying offer from the Rockies. Michael Cuddyer was expected to accept the qualifying offer, so, he didn’t accept the qualifying offer. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t expected to forgo the qualifying offer because of just a few extra million dollars, so, he forwent the qualifying offer because of just a few extra million dollars. And the Mets weren’t expected to pursue Michael Cuddyer after the compensation was attached, so, the Mets pursued him after the compensation was attached. The Mets pursued him, and they got him: Michael Cuddyer’s off to New York, for two years and $21 million.
The Mets, then, are out the 15th pick of next summer’s draft. The Rockies, then, are up one compensation pick in next summer’s draft. Cuddyer’s got himself a multi-year guarantee, and he’ll pull $8.5 million in this coming season, and $12.5 million in the next. The initial response, as is common, is that the Mets did something silly. Given a little more thought, it settles to merely questionable. Of greatest interest is what the Mets seem to be signaling.
Let’s run through the transaction analysis. Cuddyer’s 36 next March, and he hasn’t batted 600 times since 2010. Last year he played a third of the season due to a handful of DL stints. Most simply, for a sum of $21 million, a team is hoping to buy something like three wins. Cuddyer was worth one and a half last year, and two and a half the year before that. The obvious problem is this: Steamer projects Cuddyer to be worth 0.9 WAR in 2015, and that’s over most of a healthy year. That’s the first guaranteed year of two guaranteed years.
Therefore, the Mets like Cuddyer a lot more than Steamer does. They have to, or else their decision doesn’t make a lick of sense. The Mets, perhaps, buy into Cuddyer’s recent success — he’s had a 142 wRC+ since the start of 2013, and a 124 wRC+ since the start of 2011. Additionally or alternatively, the Mets might not believe in Cuddyer’s defensive numbers. Over the last five years, out of right fielders with at least 2,000 innings, Cuddyer’s ranked second-worst by UZR, and first-worst by DRS. The Mets might think Cuddyer will fare better in left. It’s also worth noting Steamer doesn’t give any extra-credit points for right-handed pop or clubhouse leadership.
The thing missing from that analysis is the forfeited draft pick. The Mets wouldn’t have valued the 15th pick of the draft at zero dollars. It’s not an easy thing to assign a value of a mid-first-round draft pick, but we can try a proxy: players selected around the 15th pick, recently, have frequently shown up in the bottom half of Baseball America’s subsequent top-100 prospects. Just last year, the 17th pick was Brandon Finnegan. According to this analysis, such a prospect is worth something like $10 million. According to this analysis, it’s closer to $20 million. We can be conservative and pin it around $10 – 15 million. Then you could think of the Cuddyer contract as being worth $31 – 36 million. It’s kind of like having two consecutive qualifying offers accepted.
You can’t really just pile all the values together, that easily. But that does provide a better idea of how the Mets see Cuddyer for the next two years: they’re looking for him to be an average or above-average player. Which means he needs to stay on the field, and he needs to keep from aging too much. Compared to projections, the Mets are higher on Cuddyer’s offense, defense, or both. They like him over Eric Young, and they like him as a platoon partner with Lucas Duda. The latter arrangement would allow for there to be a better defensive outfield.
It seems like the Mets are slightly overpaying. This is bigger than the crowdsourced contract, which didn’t even factor in the possibility of a qualifying offer. The deal isn’t completely unreasonable, at the same time, and if you figure that every contract evaluation comes with error bars, the error bars here do overlap with a sensible move. Maybe there’s, say, a 20 – 30% chance this makes great sense today. There’s some value in the Mets already having been able to make a big move, without waiting on the market to develop. It’s not so interesting whether this is too big of a guarantee. It’s more interesting what the Mets might be trying to do.
The team is encouraged by David Wright‘s recent surgery. The team’s encouraged by Matt Harvey’s recovery progress. The team’s also just encouraged by the team, such that the Mets don’t feel like they’re too far away from making some noise. While they appear to lack a whole lot of payroll flexibility, the Mets possess an affordable developing core that’s put them on the fringes.
According to Steamer and our depth charts, the Mets rank 11th in the National League in projected WAR. They’re also just shy of eighth, as there’s some separation between eighth and seventh. Plugging in Cuddyer doesn’t make much of a difference, but if you plug in an estimate of the Mets’ evaluation of Cuddyer, they improve by a win or a win and a half, and a team probably doesn’t do this if it’s about to stop spending. It wouldn’t make sense for the Mets to add Cuddyer right now and then stop. This only fits a plan if the plan is to try to win 85+ ballgames in the season ahead.
And then you can see room for optimism in the Steamer projections. Juan Lagares could finish north of 2.8 wins. The same goes for Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. Even if you’re not buying that the Mets are already roughly average at shortstop, you can see the upside here, and apparently the Mets are still hot in pursuit of a shortstop improvement. The fun conspiracy theory right now is that this move is connected to the Mets swinging a blockbuster for Troy Tulowitzki, but even failing that, there are names available like Alexei Ramirez and Brad Miller and Starlin Castro and others. It doesn’t take much to put the Mets in position to dream.
And this gets into what Dave wrote about the Royals. The goal doesn’t have to be to be legitimately good. The goal can be to be all right, to be decent enough to be close enough to get lucky, and the Mets must see for themselves an opportunity. It’s a scramble to be the second-best team in the NL East division, and the Mets might be there now, and if you don’t need to be that great to contend for a wild card, why not try? The Mets have enough talent, and with a shortstop, what glaring holes remain? Most teams are decent enough to justify trying. It’s not a unique position for the Mets, but it’s a legitimate position, and you don’t sign Michael Cuddyer if you don’t think Cuddyer could be taking meaningful hacks in the next September.
Odds are, the Mets paid Michael Cuddyer a little too much. Steamer projects him for the same WAR as Matt den Dekker. The Mets clearly believe more strongly in Cuddyer’s most recent chances to play, and the Mets also believe in themselves. It’s interesting, if it’s not anything else.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I feel like this will make more sense if the Mets sign another QO guy, and diminish the draft pick cost, but do they have the payroll to add another high-quality FA?
another?
Yes. The Cuddyer signing seems to signal that they plan to sign at least one more player with a QO attached.
Who?
WHAT ARE THEY THINKING! Honest question. How can MLB teams make this mistake over and over again? I’m dumbfounded.
Me too.
Not just MLB teams as a whole, but this team in particular. See: Jason Bay, Jeromy Burnitz, Curtis Granderson, et al. Even if everything goes right (in semi-realistic fashion, not Cuddyer posting his video game #’s from Coors like some think he well), this isn’t likely to be more than a break-even deal. And that’s the best case scenario.
What a ridiculous move. I think the Mets are just happy not to have to sign another first round pick.
Next year’s outfield is Juan Lagares flanked by two huge mistakes.
“Steamer projects him for the same WAR as Matt den Dekker.”
“Therefore, the Mets like Cuddyer a lot more than Steamer does”
I fixed the whole article for you.
Its a lot shorter now too
I know it is meaningless speculation, but why not go for it…
If the Mets had a secret deal with Colorado to sign Cuddyer, and thereby award their #15 draft selection to the Rockies, as part of a (partially tacit) deal for Troy Tulowitzki, would there be a risk of punishment from MLB?
Teams can’t trade standard draft picks, but what would prevent the Mets from agreeing to sign Cuddyer in order to secretly trade their 1st round pick? They could not agree to send (e.g.) Noah Syndergaaaard, Steven Matz, Dilson Herrera and Kevin Plawecki to Colorado for Tulowitzki.
Just a conspiracy theory. But people do weird things all the time, and by comparison this would not be the oddest thing in baseball.
The Rockies don’t get the #15 pick they get a suplimental pick after the first round not the pick that was forfeited.
I get that. But they get a compensation pick, which amounts to a late 1st round pick. Not exactly a straight trade, but pretty close.
Since the teams who forfeit their first round picks for signing QO free agents lose their picks, and everybody else moves up, in essence the “compensation round” picks are late first round picks. With 12 QO free agents, it is possible 12 different teams will forfeit 1st round picks. If so, Colorado could get the 19th overall draft selection (in theory).
An even deeper conspiracy theory is that Colorado agreed to this, gave Cuddyer the qualifying offer, the Mets signed him, and now Colorado wont answer the Mets calls.
Nicely done. I choose to believe that is true. That makes baseball even interestinger.
That would be really smart, if a bit devious.
Which changes the perception of the Rockies from “crazy” to “crazy like a fox” and the Mets from “silly” to, uh, “conspirisilly”?
Makes sense, since the Rockies don’t have to deal with any Major League front offices ever again.
The compensation system would be a lousy way to do a back door draft pick trade.
The swap is totally asymmetrical, with one team losing far more than the other team gains. Too much value is lost to the ether. If I can just give you $1 as part of a deal, we’re both better off if I do that instead of some secret arrangement by which I pay $1 to put $0.50 in your pocket.
Both teams would be better off just adjusting the included prospects or cash in a trade than trying to orchestrate something like that.
That’s a really fun conspiracy. If a Mets-tulu deal goes through this would be a fascinating angle to consider. As it stands right now, the Cuddyer signing is bat$h1# crazy, but its more of the same from a feeble minded front office.
Conspiracies are a daily occurrence in business, hourly even.
I do think there might be some truth to the draft pick (compensation, not 15th) being a part of a Tulo package, which may be being discussed.
Bit complicated though. Both teams would have had to know Cuddyer would not accept the QO and would be willing to sign with the Mets.
That’s a hell of a squint, Jeff, I commend you. 😀
why not just sign aoki for less money without having to give up a draft pick. sure he has less pop but his overall value is comparable.
But Aoki lacks right-handed pop AND clubhouse leadership.
begs the question why the Mets need so much clubhouse leadership?
Have you seen what’s in that clubhouse? Somebody needs a whip and a chair.
It has to be asked… The Mets have a well regarded and seemingly intelligent front office. HOW do they justify this? I think you’re being too kind – I think this move must’ve come from ownership. If not, what do they see that no one else does? Is there that much of a gap between our resources and theirs?
Other than the first round pick, the deal was pretty much what everyone expected him to get.
Also get your narrative straight. The Wilpons are cheap remember?
Other than giving up that thing that had a net value on the order of $20 million, the deal was pretty much what everyone expected.
A more reasonable estimate is 10 million.
Also doesn’t take into account the opportunity cost of passing up on cuddyer. Mets have a black hole in the outfield. Everyone other than Aoki has compensation attached. Also doesn’t take into account the opportunity this affords the Mets to address the shortstop position going forward.
What if, though, they are already in negotiations and fully expect to sign another player who has the qualifying offer attached? In which case, the 1st round pick is already gone, and it’s just losing a second round pick to ALSO sign Cuddyer. I don’t think you can really pan a deal for draft pick compensation reasons when it’s this early in the offseason and you don’t know what other moves they will or won’t make.
There is no opportunity cost of *not* signing Cuddyer. That’s incoherent.
Arc, what do you mean there is no opportunity cost? You are completely discounting economic theory. Ignore steamer projections here, considering that if Cuddyer stays healthy even two-thirds of a season, he’ll produce at least one full WAR. That’s already an improvement over the current situation. No rational person can argue that Matt Den Dekker is a better option then Cuddyer.
Now on to that opportunity cost. Lets look at the benefits of signing Cuddyer. LF hole is filled by a quality bat, resources can now be focused to pull off a trade at SS.
If that happens, combined with a healthy Harvey and their massive pitching depth, the Mets are at least an 85 win team. Looking at the win-revenue relationship, improving by 6 wins, and playing meaningful September baseball, leads to increased revenue for the team. Increased revenue leads to an increased payroll which can then go to getting even more talent and locking up their own talent. Which leads to more winning.
Now what did they give up? The 15th overall pick that equates to somewhere between $10-$20 million. And they signed Cuddyer for $21 million total. So let’s say they spent $35 million for Cuddyer.
If they don’t sign Cuddyer, they could sign Aoki for cheaper and not lose the compensation pick. But what if someone else gets him? Then you’re left with that hole in LF. Then even if you fill that SS hole, you still won’t come close to that 85 win scenario. No increased revenue, no change in payroll, you end up giving up prospects that could help in the future for a SS that ended up having no impact now.
You see where opportunity cost comes in now? That $35 million seems a lot more worth it.
Matt den Dekker has legs that allow him to run fast and catch balls in the outfield. Cuddyer does not. There’s no question which guy is the better hitter, but there’s also no question which guy is the better defender and base runner.
The question is who will have more value in 2015. I don’t think it’s an absurd question. It may turn out that they make an excellent platoon.
Yeap cuddyer top of inning den decker bottom of innings?
By “excellent platoon” I mostly mean “not terrible.” But yeah, Cuddyer on offense and den Dekker on defense would be a very good player.
Jeremy: “No rational person can argue that Matt Den Dekker is a better option then Cuddyer.”
Maybe not, but I could argue that Den Dekker + $20MM + the 15th pick are collectively worth more to the team than Cuddyer.
I keep reading that this deal frees up resources for the Mets to deal for a SS. That may be true as far as trading chips are concerned, but what about the impact this deal has on payroll? I guess I don’t understand how a team that has been crying poor and slashing payroll is going to afford a big time SS on top of the $10.5MM/yr being paid to Cuddyer.
Jeremy, that’s not how opportunity cost works.
What the Mets ended up doing *instead* of signing Cuddyer would have had an opportunity cost. Simply *not* signing him does not.
oh here we go with the “this must be a Jeff move” talk already. can’t possibly be from the Alderson FO bc ya know, their record has been so wonderful in 4+ years….
The front office has made some bad signings (and some okay ones), but they haven’t given up draft picks. This is more the Omar M. Wilpon style.
They gave up a 2nd rd pick last year for another idiotic signing, Granderson. But more importantly, they wasted 2 of their 4 high 1st round picks already (2012 and 2013) so I guess in that sense, giving up the 2016 1st isn’t a great loss……
Jake, you can’t say they wasted the 2012 and 2013 first rounders yet. Cecchini had a 101 wRC+ across 2 levels last year at age 20 as a shortstop (ignoring the 4 at bats in AA). Smith was a bit disappointing at 95 wRC+, but he started the year as an 18 year old in the Sally in a very tough park for hitters. Both had decent k/bb rates. Smith lacked pop but I’d hardly call them busts yet. Neither were considered overdrafts. CAllis and Sickels both had Cecchini going right around where he did.
In his pre-season list, didn’t Keith Law have Smith as his top 1B prospect in baseball? I’m not sure how that’s a waste.
That’s not the problem, of course, if you’d actually give the matter some thought.
The problem is that this is a buffoon’s signing.
You don’t have to imagine a FO is “brilliant” for it to be able to avoid this kind of travesty with extremely limited FA dollars. You only have to imagine that it isn’t flat incompetent.
This signing stinks of an early offseason “grab,” a desperation move to pick up a tired, “name” player by someone who doesn’t understand baseball. That’s the Wilpons.
This isn’t a signing even a modestly competent FO makes.
I think there is something in Cuddyer’s hit f(x) data that we can’t see that points to Cuddyer being a better hitter than we realize. The Mets are an extremely stat-heavy team; they wouldn’t do this unless there was statistical justification.
The reason the Mets kept Duda over Davis was based off of Duda’s batted ball velocity, so there is something due to the fact that the current FO digs deep into the numbers.
So… the Mets dig into the numbers, and because the Mets dig into the numbers they ran Lucas Duda and his brutal glove out to LF for four seasons, turning him into a worse than replacement level ballplayer?
Those “digging” Mets?
===
text testSurely you jest. A “statistical justification”?
The Mets made an absurd signing last offseason, their biggest in years, one that defied basic numerical common sense. They signed an old player who was likely to be at his worst when they were most likely to be competitive.
This is almost exactly the same as the Granderson signing. An obvious blunder where the team picks up a guy who used to be very good, whose name will be recognized by most fans, and who has a very good chance of being worthless in the last year of his deal. He will also be at his worst when the team–over the time of the deal–has its best chance of contending.
You know how clubs go after players who can help them now, when they have a chance to win, and accept that this will later burden them with an expensive player well into decline? The Mets did the reverse of that with Granderson, paying big bucks (for them) for a player in decline who was likely to verge on being worthless when the club would have its best chance of contending. Cuddyer is the Granderson deal in miniature. So was Colon’s deal.
This also could have something to do with clubhouse presence. A lot of teams have been working on a formula for clubhouse impact, perhaps Cuddyer’s value is simply more subtle.
Which is why the Rockies have managed to collapse each season he was in Colorado after a hot start when Tulo or Cargo got hurt…
“All is lost!” Cuddyer ejaculated as Tulowitzki grabbed his hip, wincing in pain.
Phrasing!
Michael Cuddyer has 22.5% more grit and 13% more intangibles than other available corner outfielders.
Yes, but those figures are based on his 2014 season. Extrapolating from his aging curve, Cuddyer’s grit will decline 10% in 2015 and 18% in 2016, while intangibles will decline even more.
I thought grit and intangibles increased with age?#craftyveterannarrative
Goodness. It is intangible and overblown, but for fucks sake it is not made up. Every role in the working world has grunt/lead/supervisor/manager/director/executive. Who the fuck are you to say that young kids making more money than they ever dreamed living in the big apple couldn’t use a good presence? They’re still human. Idiot.
There’s no need to be upset.
There’s a Groucho Marx angle that you didn’t address (he who famously said “I don’t want to be part of any club that would have me as a member”)
By taking 2/21 over 1/15, Cuddyer is implicitly placing hit 2016 value at <6m, unless he really wants to play in NY or has some other really important non-compensation reason to play for the Mets. As a vet who has demonstrably hit for power, you have to be pretty atrocious to be offered less than $6m for a 1-year deal. Logically, Cuddyer must be more than a little concerned about his staying power.
The question is, if you're the Mets, why would you want to sign someone who apparently values himself so cheaply? Regardless of your evaluation, wouldn't that be a red flag?
Maybe this was Cuddyer’s way of rewarding his buddy Wright for putting him on the HR derby squad. The conspiracy thickens!
some players at the end of their careers prefer years to money. plus last I checked $21 million is more than $15 million. what if cuddy sustains a career-ending injury or is so ineffective no one wants to pay him? it’s the right move for him even if he is “only” making $6 mil on the second year.
I can’t accept that it’s “the right move” to take the years over the money. A baseball player only has so many years in which to earn money, it’s totally against his own interest to sign one away for stability unless Cuddyer places a particular value on playing in New York as opposed to Denver. And that’s certainly not a crazy thing to consider- many players may believe that NYC offers a higher quality of life- and if the Mets were to catch lightning in a bottle and make the World Series with Cuddyer giving solid production he would probably be a popular figure in NYC for a long time.
I love the baseball player only has so many years to earn money line. 15.3 mil in one year is more than I’ll make in my lifetime. And now he’s 21 added to the millions he’s already made. Maybe, just, maybe, he wants to play in New York with Wright. He’s being paid nicely to do so.
Who cares what you accept? When you’re 36 and might only have one year left on your clock, you would take 2/21 over 1/15 as well. Asstard.
There’s no coherent argument that this is a better financial move for Cuddyer than accepting the QO, unless he believes that he’s unlikely to have a 2015 worthy of signing a 21M/2yr deal.
But there are a lot of other reasons he could prefer to play in New York than Colorado. A better chance to compete, a more interesting city to live in, and a longtime friend to play alongside of. Personally, I would choose NY over COL if I were in his shoes. But that’s probably why I’m broke. :p
That’s exactly the point- if he is indeed worried about injury or becoming ineffective, then from his standpoint taking the deal makes perfect sense.
The issue is not Cuddyer’s decision but the Mets’- if you offer someone a deal that only makes perfect sense to him if he thinks he’s on his last legs, what then have you bought when he signs it?
A splendid point well made.
It’s the right move for him only if he thinks that as a free agent at the end of the 2015 season, he will not be offered a contract worth more than $6MM.
This is wrong. There is not just one outcome. There are a range of outcomes. He might think there is only a 20% chance he might not get $6 million next year. But if he is trying to maximize his minimum earnings he might still take 2/$21 over 1/$15 + 1/$x.
Different people have different goals and different risk tolerances. I mean overall this is a questionable signing and your line of reasoning is POSSIBLY correct. But it is not NECESSARILY correct in the logical sense.
The use of the word “only” in your sentence is just wrong.
Probably the dude just wants some stability and possibly contention at the end of his career
Wouldn’t he be valuing himself at even less, considering NY taxes? Plus he’s missing out on whatever return he would expect on the $7 million he’d be making this year. Maybe it’s down to a few million all things considered. This cannot have been purely a financial decision for him.
He is from Virginia so locking in two years closer to his family & children could be a big factor
Matt Kemp is also from Virginia, but he hasn’t signed with the Mets.
Who the fuck cares about Matt Kemp? He is single, chasing tale and has no kids. None of that applies to Cuddyer. Stupid fucking comparison. Two ball players aren’t allowed to place value in different things, considering they are at completely places in life? Asshole.
Why ruin a legit point by being a dick?
The last time I chased tale I ended up in a Barnes and Noble.
I rarely post comments, but I always read them, and this is the only site I do that with—because I value the discourse. So many of the posters add great insight and the arguments don’t devolve into something like what you read on YouTube videos.
Which is why, Matt, I want to say: You raise some reasonable points, but take it easy on the napalm you’re pouring on here, because you’re needlessly inflammatory.
Maybe he does place his 2016 value at <6m. He won't look so hot as a free agent if he's an old man who gets off to a slow start and subsequently spends most of the year coming off the bench for some combination of Stubbs/Dickerson/Blackmon. Which is a very likely scenario.
2/21 on a team with hope vs. 1/15 on a team with no hope.
Couple that with a fresh memory of what happened to Stephen Drew and it doesn’t sound so crazy.
Yes. Cuddy obviously has zero confidence in 2016.
I remember hearing last year how important and highly valued their draft picks were. Now you burn one on Cuddyer.
Well they gave up a second-rounder for Curtis Granderson
and they burned 1st rounders in 2012 and 2013.
effectively.
Maybe they value winning now as opposed to continuing to suck now.
Because that worked so well for them when they made the same mistake the last few years!
Cuddyer has had pretty massive home/road splits over his time in Colorado. It seems reasonable to believe that his excellent offensive 2013-14 seasons have more to do with taking special advantage of a favourable environment than a great leap forward in his mid 30s.
It’s a puzzling acquisition.
Puzzling? It’s nuts!
Mike Green. You’re using common and logic sense to question this. That makes entirely too much sense. Please conform with the blind witch hunt tactics the rest of the board is using.
What Mike said. You guys can legitimately question the move without being completely unreasonable and without fabricating measures of value. He gave a good reason why this is a bad signing, rather than make up what the Mets do and do not place value in..
See… Ruben Amaro knew the Mets were gonna do this… and now he’s gonna sneak in and steal den Dekker for next to nothing, just to prove everyone wrong.
I don’t see… Ben Cherington didn’t know the Yankees weren’t gonna do this… and now he’s not going to sneak in and overpay for Oswaldo Arcia for next to infinity, just to not prove nobody right.
Den Dekker is a 4th outfielder at best. And cannot start against lefties. He’ll share time in that space with Nieuwenhuis, they’re essentially interchangeable.
Ruben Amaro is a person.
A person is Dave Cameron.
Therefore, Ruben Amaro is Dave Cameron.
Why do they call Timmy
Big Game
Lincecum
the freak? Is it
because he dresses
in goth
or because he pitches freakily?
That explains why they never appear in photos together…
I. Love. This.
Flashback to school! All fricks are fracks but not all fracks are fricks.
Has anyone ever seen them together?
Just asking.
“That’s the first guaranteed year of two guaranteed years.” Are there options as part of this contract that I missed? Are those options in some kind of funky order that might lead us to believe 2015 is not one of the guaranteed years?
Reject 15n QO,accept 2yr 21m,is Denny Moyer available.
Jamie Moyer!
Coming from a Mets fan:
I do believe this is a solid signing if there was a DH in the National League. Since there is not.. his fielding metrics are kinda a killer. If you look at his splits in the last three years from 2012-2014:
HOME: .984 OPS (.329/.393/.591)
AWAY: .795 OPS (.286/.332/.463)
Obviously a lot of Coors Field. Does Steamer really expect him to drop to .727 OPS, that seems like a very decent sized drop. In 50 games though, his WAR was 1.5..
Granderson and Cuddyer will be black holes defensively, or if you want to plug Duda in there from time to time, that doesn’t really help.. Looks like Lagares is going to need to be like Kelly Leake from Bad News Bears and just run down every fly ball.
The draft pick loss is a tough one as well.. especially since the Mets didn’t have anyone to tender an offer to. If they are going for it, then go all the way and sign an SS or trade for Tulo (although that’s an injury risk with 20 red flags).
Look at the crop of outfielders though. Who is the one gold glover out there the Mets could have signed?
Here’s a list: Nelly Cruz, Melky Cabrera, Alex Rios, Nori Aoki, Colby Rasmus, Nick Markakis, Mike Morse, Torii Hunter all had negative defensive ratings last year. So if the Mets paid the prices of some of these guys, they would get the same ridicule.
I’m fine with Cuddyer at the end of the day, I am thinking maybe a line of: 525 PAs .290/.330/.480 line. Call me an optimist, or ridiculous, but this is a signing the Mets had to do. There are jobs on the line next year..
But, but, but….Streamer says, but Streamer says….who cares – seems way off….this Mets fan likes the deal….not sure the draft pick is as big a deal as some are making it out to be….a few years ago yes, but BP just today said the Mets have the most well rounded set of prospects in the baseball.
This. Thank you. The Mets don’t care about Steamer. I have no basis for this, but I imagine that Steamer projections are a complete joke to most front offices. Just like bull/bear roots are complete jokes to brokers. What the public has access to cannot be confused with what the experts have access to.
There are many reasons why could be a bad signing. Steamer projections are not one of these. Stop using them as gospel and realize they are a fucking suggestion by a source that knows more than the general public but less than the actual source. Nothing more, nothing less.
Has Fangraphs ever done an article on how bad / good Steamer is, using data from previous years?
“Maybe there’s, say, a 20 – 30% chance this makes great sense today.”
–In short, a bad signing. And you must have mean “good,” not “great.”
“There’s some value in the Mets already having been able to make a big move,…”
–This is meaningless. The Mets don’t need to make “big moves” or “small moves.” They need to make moves that improve the team. This wasn’t a big move, in any case. 2/21? It’s barely more than a small move.
“…without waiting on the market to develop.”
This only matters if a club picks up a player at a respectable price, or doesn’t get shut out at a key position.
“It’s not so interesting whether this is too big of a guarantee.”
–“Too big of a guarantee”? What can that possibly mean in this context?
“It’s more interesting what the Mets might be trying to do.”
–What can this possibly mean, either?
This signing is as inexplicable as your employment by a website otherwise known for competent writing and analysis.
What an utterly dismal signing. Even in Cuddyer’s recent, lucky year, 2013, his defense swallowed much of his offense. That’s a big part of why Cuddyer has almost no chance of surprising us with a big year in 2015 and especially 2016, making the upside of the deal small indeed. I’d be surprised if over the next two years Cuddyer has much chance of being a half win better than den Dekker despite being paid around $35m more (setting the value of the draft pick at $15m).
The Mets also have a better chance of contending in 2016 than in 2015, highlighting the absurdity of the deal. The club is likely to be carrying two millstones in the corners in 2016. At least there’s consistency in the team’s idiocy. They similarly blundered by signing a player like Granderson at least a year early, given the Mets had no real chance to contend in 2014. Colon too was a similar signing, dangling car keys to keep the infants among the fanbase amused.
What a fekking fiasco.
What? Neither of those links you provided as a measure for the value of draft picks has anything to do with draft picks. I searched through them, and neither one had the word “draft” anywhere in the article.
Ugh so much freakin math! How about the Mets signed a good player, a great clubhouse guy to go along with Wright and Grandy the Mets have prb the best clubhouse in baseball. Add in Harvey and a better year from the pitchers as progression and the Mets have something building!
“So much math”…you do know what website this is, right?
First in Grit, First in Clubhouse, Last in the National League East™
Actually tied for second with ATL with pathetic input from LF…
All I keep thinking is that the Mets did this to beat the Phillies to the punch.
What is this, a game between them of “Who Can Go Stupid First”?
One possible mitigating factor in the Mets’ eyes is the incredible dearth of offense available. Cuddyer has the third highest wRC+ over the last three years among free agents. He’s also got the second highest over the last two years. Doesn’t make it smart, but I can see a team deciding it wanted offense and thinking Cuddyer will bring that.
Also possible that salary inflation is going to be more significant than we’re anticipating this off-season.
Four words: 600 AB since 2011.
I’m not a scientist, but that looks like one word, two numbers, and an abbreviation.
Two words came to my mind when I heard of the signing: Jason Bay.
Bay was younger and the contract much longer, but we have two righty hitters with poor defense and inflated offensive numbers due to a favorable hitting environment.
The Bay thing was even worse cuz the Mets HAD him on their team and traded him for a bag of dirt. Then they ended up giving away money to get him back.
Why didn’t they just trade for Marlon Byrd? Byrd is more durable, similar hitting profile, cheaper, better defender, and would cost less than a mid-1st round pick in a trade.
Love Marlon Byrd, he was fantastic when he was here..
Problem is he is on a team called the Phillies who don’t like us. Amaro would probably ask for the moon. If the Mets wanted any OF who can swing the bat, they were going to give up a pick besides Aoki (who I didn’t want anyway).
I’m not blind to the fact that Cuddyer is a subpar defender, and cost us the 15th overall pick. However, this isn’t Jason Bay signing where he is expected to hit 30 HRs every year. I am fine with an .800-.825 OPS with 20 HRs. I expect them to sign another defensive OF or stick wtih Eric Young Jr.
Mets gotta make a few more moves, but this is a good first step in the offseason.
“Subpar”? Try “catastrophically bad.”
According to Steamer and our depth charts, the Mets rank 11th in the National League in projected WAR
Are these projections available anywhere? Assuming you’ve already done the work to have 2015 projected standings is there a reasons NOT to make them available?
Now they don’t have to even pretend like they’re interested in Yasmany Tomas or Carlos Gonzalez. They’re zero chance in getting Tulo. The franchise is barely holding together b/c of the debt of the Wilpons
I really don’t think Cuddyer is gonna make an 800 OPS in NY. Check his home road splits.
If he hits .260 with 15 HRs, you’ve gotta thanks the gods.
Why did Cuddyer take this deal rather than the QO? If he had accepted, his downside scenario, which has to be well under 50%, is that his career ends next year and he is stuck with a total of $15M rather than $20M for the rest of his life. A much more likely scenario is that he plays well enough to sign a contract next year for at least 1 year, $6M, and comes out ahead. And it’s fairly plausible that he ends up with a 2 year contract for $20M or more after next year, esp. since he’s unlikely to be saddled with another QO and will have another year at Coors under his belt.
AF, your entire premise is that his only goal was to maximize the dollars. Isn’t it possible that a player at the end of his career, with a family and more money than he’ll be able to spend, has priorities other than to get every last cent?
If there was no QO tied to Cuddyer it would be a good move, but given their current position you just cant give up that draft pick.
One thing nobody seems to be taking into account in regard to his defense is that Coors Field has a massive OF compared to other parks. He has so much more ground to cover than his contemporaries so the defensive numbers are probably overstated.