Jose Bautista Gets One More Chance

Jose Bautista hit 23 homers last season but still had trouble finding a job over the winter. This wasn’t a conspiracy against Bautista, though, or a case of the slow free-agent market at work. Those 23 homers put the former star in a tie for just 84th overall in the majors in 2017, a season during which 117 players hit 20 homers and three-fourths of qualified batters hit at least 15.

Between Bautista’s pedestrian home-run figure, his batting line of .203/.308/.366, and his 80 wRC+, few if any teams pursued him. His poor range in the outfield and similarly poor speed on the basepaths rendered him something worse than replacement-level last year, and at 37 years old, it’s reasonable to believe Bautista’s days as a productive player are behind him. Just in case he’s not done, however, the Atlanta Braves are going to give him a shot.

If things had played out differently for Bautista, it is easy to think he might still be starting somewhere. Consider the following two players’ statistics from 2009 to -17:

Of these two players, Player A has been better over the course of the last decade. It might be obvious who these players are, but to build some artificial suspense, here’s how the two have progressed over the years. First, 2009-13:

Pretty even. Now here’s 2014-2015:

Player A aged much better than Player B. In 2016, both players showed signs of slowing down, with Player A putting up a 122 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR and Player B going for 110 and 0.7, respectively. Last season, both player swere terrible, but Player B, Albert Pujols, entered the 2018 season with a guaranteed job, playing time, and an opportunity to bounce back while Player A, Jose Bautista, had no decent offers and has taken a minor-league deal that pays him $1 million if he makes the majors. Now, Pujols has the greater track record — he’s an all-time great for what he did in his 20s — but over the last decade, there’s been little difference in their performances. This also doesn’t mean that Pujols deserves to have seemingly unlimited opportunities to rebound, but rather that he will get them because of his contract. It is good to see Bautista get an opportunity even if under difference circumstances.

Coming off a breakout 54-homer campaign in 2010, Bautista was a year from free agency when he signed a five-year deal with Toronto guaranteeing him $85 million. He followed his initial great season with another one in 2011, and the Blue Jays had one of the biggest bargains in baseball through the 2015 season. Toronto had an option on his contract for 2016 and exercised it. Two disappointing seasons followed, preventing Bautista from another great payday. If Bautista had become a free agent at any time between 2011 and the end of 2015, he likely wouldn’t have had to look for a job this winter: one would have been handed to him due to his likely guaranteed contract. That was the risk Bautista took when he signed his contract guaranteeing him security for life. It’s hard to say the deal hasn’t worked out for him — that security and the great years with the Blue Jays certain can’t be overlooked — but it did cost him a little bit of money and potentially a job this season.

While his age and recent performance suggest decline, Bautista isn’t that far removed from a relatively productive season in 2016 and a very good one the year before that. As for his chances of recovering this season, they aren’t great. Since 1973, there have been 13 players good enough at age 36 to garner playing time over an entire season and produce a wRC+ worse than 90. Two of those players — Frank White and Mark Grudzielanek — were actually productive enough defensively to put up over two wins. The players below aren’t really true comps for Jose Bautista, as they don’t consider performance before age 36, but they do provide a glimpse into understanding how likely or unlikely it is for any player at that age to recover. The good news for Bautista is that all 11 players below actually played some in their age-37 season. The table below shows how the players performed.

There’s not a lot about which to be positive here. The good news is that the player with the closest career to Bautista in terms of overall hitting is Dave Parker. Parker peaked well before Bautista and generally wasn’t great in his 30s, but at 34, in 1985, Parker put up a five-win season with a 145 wRC+ in a season similar to Bautista’s at the same age. In 1986, Parker was decent, recording a 113 wRC+, before authoring a poor year for the Reds in 1987. Parker moved to the A’s in 1988, and while defensive limitations at that age were going to prevent him from putting up much value, he was an above-average hitter for the A’s in 1988 and 1989 — as well as for the Brewers in 1990 — before retiring after the 1991 season at 40 years old. Bautista isn’t going to get back to what he once was, but there is a glimmer of hope that he can still be a productive player. Alex Anthopolous, the Braves’ general ,anager, also mentioned the potentially positive clubhouse influence of Bautista on a young team.

“What you see on the field is different from what you see in the clubhouse,” he said. “There’s been a lot of commentary, he can be a little fiery, demonstrative, things like that. But he’s a class-act individual. Cares, works hard, very highly respected overall. The work ethic and the prep. I’ve seen him influence and make other players better.

“I think Edwin Encarnacion is a good example when we got him from the Reds. I think being around Jose, his conditioning got better. His preparation, watching videos and all those things. Those things can impact and affect other players. Very intelligent, very cerebral player, very instinctive player.”

It’s possible Jose Bautista might be finished as a player, but if he wants to keep playing, he deserves a shot. His resume — more than his current talent level — might have helped him get this opportunity, but his skills will now dictate if he gets to keep going at the highest level. That’s the way it should be.