Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: Mock Draft and El Tablero

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, linkage: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s today’s mock draft which dumps our current intel.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s our updated draft board: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

Eric A Longenhagen: And here are details on the giant board of every minor leaguer we ranked on a list, even if we haven’t posted the full reports ont he site yet: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/introducing-the-board/

Eric A Longenhagen: Forgive me if I cut today’s chat short. Yesterday was not a good one in the Galmenhagen house as my wife’s cat of ten years, who has been hospitalized this week, took a turn for the worse. On my wife’s birthday. Yeah. Anyway…

Billy Beane: Are there any organizations you have a hard time scouting just because of location?

Eric A Longenhagen: The teams whose facilities are based in West Palm Beach. MIA, StL, HOU and to a lesser degree WAS

Ed: What are your thoughts on Buddy Reed’s fast start?

Make Prospects Great Again: How worried are you about early struggles of Tristan Lutz and Jhailyn Ortiz?

AJ: Is Huddson Potts fast start due to the Cal League environment? His strikeout numbers seem to be down. Thanks for your time!

Eric A Longenhagen: As a blanket answer to all of these types of questions: It’s too early to take anything away from statistical performance. If guys have made substantive mechanical changes or are throwing harder, etc, etc..that’s great and might mean early-season changes in performance are real, but we’re focused on draft stuff right now so that stuff is currently elusive for the two of us unless we run into these guys ourselves.

Jeff: Chances Kumar Rocker gets to the Cubs at 24?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a chance he falls due to signability but I’m not sure they can pay him. Their pool is around $7mil. If Rocker wants $5mil, it’s tough to make that work and still have a draft that isn’t all seniors. It’d be pretty bold to Ricky Williams your entire draft.

NickD: Given the Tigers have taken a RHP in the first round of each of the last 3 drafts and they currently don’ thave 1 position player prospect ranked anywhere near a top 100 do you think they would still take Mize 1-1 (assuming medicals check out etc…)?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is anecdotal, but in my experience what teams have done in the past are indicators of what they’ll do in the future, not the opposite.

Make Prospects Great Again: I know he just lost prospect status, but what do you make of Alfaro’s early struggles with plate discipline? Can he improve in that department?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ve been waiting for him to get better at it since I was literally 18 years old.

Mr Canada Jr.: Can Tyler O’Neill stick in center in the majors? Will his swing and miss potential outweigh his power against major league pitching?

Eric A Longenhagen: No to both. Made swing changes last year I think will help him get to the power even with the strikeouts.

Jeff: How are Steve Hajjar and Jonathan Childress holding up this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Neither moving way up. Talked to two X-checkers about each of them this week. Still mid-rounds, 3-5.

osick87: Are the Jays linked to Conine at all? Seems like they’ve been really hitting the 2nd generation well.

Eric A Longenhagen: The teams I would attach to Conine are the ones who look at multi-year samples rather than looking at this year alone, like Cleveland.

Frank: What is Shane Bieber’s ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: #3

Eric A Longenhagen: I love him

MaineBall: What do you see as Logan Gilbert’s range for where he’ll be selected?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mid to late rd 1

Jeff: Any new thoughts on Cubs’ RHP Alex Lange? I have relatively high hopes, see him as a much better shot at a legit first division SP than De la Cruz and Albertos

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s an interesting fit as a Lance McCullers type of starter who comes in and throws his breaking ball half the time. Certainly De La Cruz and Albertos have other significant issues (Oscar can’t stay healthy, Albertos has bad command and is a 4 athlete)

Vegan Man!: Thoughts on Jose Siri? Can he be a legitimate 25-25 threat in MLB? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: YEs

BJ: The Board is very cool! You guys are doing great stuff. Any ETA on the new prospect top 100 re-ranking? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Two weeks or so.

Bored Employee: Oneil Cruz sounds like a fascinating prospect. Can you talk a little more about what kind of athlete he is and the likelihood of him making enough contact to be a big league regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, one of the more bizarre players I’ve ever seen. I had him projected as a 40 bat on the Pirates list which, with his power, probably gets him there.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s here, btw: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-25-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/

Mark: Do you think Tom Pannone’s stuff will play up to be a back end MLB starter? Possibly next season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, that’s reasonable

Josh R: Is there anything to be interested in with Trevor Richards?  What is it about him that allowed him to have great numbers in the minors last year, but no mention in the Marlins list?

Eric A Longenhagen: he could have been on there as a 70 changeup guy but the rest of the profile is fringey. Great story, though.

Armando Reynoso: Obviously, the injury to Walker will heighten the attention on Shelby Miller’s TJ recovery. Might be a lot to expect him to be back to full health this season, but long-term do you think he’s closer to the version we saw last year than the ugly 2016 version?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the new DBacks regime is very smart and knows how to handle the situation in a way that will give him the best chance to be successful. Miller has also been really volatile for his entire career, so it could go either way. I hope to see him in extended at some point.

Billy Beane: The A’s have half of the 80 speed in the minors right now, which is just plain fun. I think a guy with 80 speed is more fun than a guy with 80 power. What say you, Eric? What kind of player/prospect do you find the most fun?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d rather watch prime Ichiro than Joey Gallo.

GC: Where is Luken Baker projected in the draft?  Is there a chance he might come back for his senior year given his season ending injury and lowered stock?

Eric A Longenhagen: The orgs who care about the crazy exit velos were on him. I wasn’t on him pre-injury. Just don’t buy that he’s going to hit. No idea if he’ll come back as a senior, he’s had a snake bitten college career.

GP: What type of players will Eloy and Senzel be?

Eric A Longenhagen: 3 WAR guys, maybe better

Mark: Optimistic about Domingo German’s contributing to the Yankees as a starter? Where would his ceiling be as a starter? As a reliever?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think you leave that guy in relief. Has had multiple injuries while developing as a starter. Could be 8th inning type of arm. We need new ways to describe ‘set-up men’, I guess. High leverage isn’t specific enough for me and I’m getting tired of writing it.

Joe: Any hints for us about this risers and droppers thing you guys have mentioned, for tracking prospects who are underachieving/overachieving based on preseason top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been pounding the table for three Angels (Canning, Deveaux, Soriano) and we’re both on Seuly Matias but nothing is final yet.

Joe: Is Keibert Ruiz a bat-first catcher? What sort of offensive outlook do you expect for him?

PS thanks for the chat!

Eric A Longenhagen: His minor league framing metrics are nuts and I know there are teams think he’s a top 20 prospect in baseball and some of the Dodgers folks internally have him ahead of Verdugo. I was a little hesitant because I’ve seen him catch poorly and don’t think he’s a great athlete which, at his age, has me concerned about his mobility at age 23, 24 ,25. I’m kind of on an island, though.

Joe: Cancel my earlier question about risers and droppers — I see the post now about THE BOARD. This thing is going to consume hours of my life…

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re hoping to add different ways you can sift through it (bonus amounts, searching for all the teenagers who have 60 fastballs, etc) in the future so you can ignore your friends and family even more. And also so our other writers (and writers all over the net) can use it to make content.

Lance: Please are the 3 worst farm systems in the USA?

Eric A Longenhagen: SEA, BOS, NYM

Jack: Where in the draft do you view Madrigal’s floor? Is he looking more and more like a top 5 lock?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s see how he looks when he’s back (this weekend) but yeah, unless you think he’s fragile because of his size he does everything and it’s pretty obvious to me that he’s a stud.

Paperboy 2000: Is Denny Santana going to break out this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Vander: How’s the kitty?

Eric A Longenhagen: No bueno.

Mark: Enyel de los Santos has gotten off to an encouraging start this year…could he fit into the back of Philly’s rotation in the next year or two?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

SF outfield: Come on Giants, the outfield offense is weak.  When does Mac Williamson get a call up?  There can’t be any service time excuses either as he’s already 27.  Pence is done.

Eric A Longenhagen: I just don’t think he’s very good

Soxfan2: Is Travis Swaggerty’s swing (hitch and lower half) more of a project than you’d like to have while picking in the top 5 or so?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, I’m actually a little more apprehensive about him and Jenista than Kiley is.

Eric A Longenhagen: But we know teams up top are on him

John Gibbons: Hey hey, McDongenhagen love youz guys and all the work you do. Speaking of work, how bout them Blue Jays? Beatin’ up on some bad teams, but lookin’ pretty good with the depth guys holdin’ the fort!

Eric A Longenhagen: Indeed and have depth in Alford, Jansen, etc. So far so good

Bored Employee: Have you watched Brandon Nimmo recently? Your report on him last year listed both the hit and raw as 50s, but could his plate discipline help those play closer to 55 or 60?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Matt: What are your thoughts on Austin Riley? I’ve always heard the bat speed is an issue with him. Has the scouting report on him changed in any facet?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think it’s a bat speed thing, think it’s a load depth thing. He was better at 3B last fall than I expected and I feel better about him playing everyday.

Mark: Do you think Jalen Beeks is ultimately a bullpen arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has starter’s stuff but most of the scouts I’ve asked about him say relief.

Joe: Eric, It seems like this draft has more boom and bust prospects (guys with tantalizing tools who have yet to show consistency on the field) than past years. Really just an observation, but gut feeling five years from now will this be looked at as an above average or below average draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah that’s probably because so much of the draft is high school pitching. If I were rating it on the 20-80 scale, this is a 60 draft.

Abe: What’s your favorite kind of doughnut?

Eric A Longenhagen: Glazed Buttermilk

Eric A Longenhagen: That might be my favorite chat question ever.

Matty: What’s up with Brady Aiken? Is he hurt again?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on I have their extended roster and wanna double check that he’s on the rehab list….

Eric A Longenhagen: My tablet is booting up so I’ll answer this once it does…

Bored Employee: Any word on Josh Lowe as a potential swing change guy? Reports always mention his raw power, and his pull and fly ball percentages are both much higher than last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: that stuff starts to stabilize at around 50 balls in play but I haven’t heard that nor done film work yet

Pad Squad: Should we be worries about Ona?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really, unless you expected him to be an All Star. He looks more like a potential average player than something more than that.

Patrick: What do you make of Tyler Beede’s debut? Could his stuff play up in relief?

Eric A Longenhagen: Didn’t see it. I guess it would play up in relief since that’s a pretty universal thing. He’s a 45 for us.

Bjork: Considering that hamate injuries can zap players’ power, what should Bryan Reynolds hope for the rest of this season? An AFL invite?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, that’d be good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Brady Aiken is listed on my Indians Extended roster, so I assume he was hurt and working back from it.

Kevin: Great insights on the Mock Draft! Can you talk more in-depth about the Giants’ section? A little bummed they are out on Madrigal

Eric A Longenhagen: We know they’ve had personnel to see Stewart and they’ve had a lot of heat on Liberatore (like, a lot a lot) at times and Libby’s advisor is the same as Jacob Gonzalez’s last year, so there’s a relationship there. But it doesn’t make sense for the Giants to do a cut rate deal at 2 with a high schooler like that who might not go until 6/7 because the Giants don’t pick again until 45 and there’s no guarantee anyone will be there that they can use that savings on.

Hunter: Which of the Vandy recruits have the best chance of getting to campus?

Eric A Longenhagen: Banfield

Vegan Man!: Trevor Stephan off to a great start in High A. Think he can move through the organization quickly? Ceiling? Thank you!

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Infinite Guest: I know prospect evaluators usually hate making player comps, but helps fans visualize potential outcomes better. Having said that, do you have any player comps (past or present) for Trevor Larnach or Greyson Jenista? They seem like comparable players, with Jenista having better run/throw. What separates them in your rankings? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Jenista as Fat Lance Berkman, Larnach as Healthy Brad Wilkerson

Jason: Saw some video of a Dbacks prospect half squatting some heavy weight on twitter and was just wondering if you have an opinion on players doing heavy weightlifting, kind of like what Bryce Harper does as well. Are you fine with it or do you think the extra injury risk from heavy is not worth it?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do not, I think as long as flexibility is maintained it’s fine

Dr. Torch: Hi Eric, any news on a couple of guys recovering from TJ, James Kaprellian and Anderson Espinoza?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nothing on Kap or Jefferies yet but I should head over to Oakland’s place soon and see what’g goin on. Espinoza I doubt throws this year, maybe during instructional league.

Fletch: How similar are Gorman and Bohm?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bohm has looked much better at 3B this year and Gorman has less room on the body.

John S: even with THE NEW BOARD THING, will you be updating the team by team farm looks? i’m itching for the NL West in all the right places.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, those will roll out pretty quickly now.

John Stamos: Hi Eric – loving El Tablero! I had been tabulating this stuff separately for myself but now I don’t have to any longer! One question about the pitch grades – is there any possibility to add an ‘Other’ pitch grade for guys like Honeywell, Whitley, and Ohtani who have pitches other than FB/SL/CB/CH?

Eric A Longenhagen: Those are classified as cutters and splitters where applicable

Sam: Doesn’t seem like a big year for draft-eligible Commodores, but do any underclassmen at Vanderbilt have your attention?

Eric A Longenhagen: Austin Martin, Jayson Gonzalez, Pat DeMarco

Blake Rutherford: Was it too soon to write off my power?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was a 45 when I saw you this spring but it was a 55 when I saw you in HS so (shrug)

Deke: Question about translation of raw power to game power. For example, Dawel Lugo is projected to have a 55 hit tool, has current/projected raw power of 60, but only projected game power of 45. What is the physical reason that his raw won’t translate to game power? Does he just let loose in the cage to show off, then temper his approach in game? Much thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Guys like Lugo and Josh Naylor (though he may have made some changes) have big raw but they swing at, and hit, pitches they can’t really drive. You end up with huge raw in BP and more doubles power in games.

Tim: How much of what you hear about teams connected to players is deliberate disinformation that you have to cut through to find the truth or is it all pretty honest and freely shared info?

Eric A Longenhagen: It is not freely shared and we’re both aware that people with teams will try to use us to disseminate misinformation. We also know it’d be pretty gangster of these executives to spend money to fly to a game as a red herring just to throw us or the rest of baseball off, so the physical presence of decision makers weighs heavily in our projections.

Sean: How is Daulton Varsho’s defense coming along at C so far? Is it going to hold his bat back in development through the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought it was better this spring than it was after he signed. Still fringey but trending up. Yerzy too.

James: Hey Eric, sorry to hear about your cat. Can you just quickly explain what scouts mean when they talk about a player’s approach? It’s probably a dumb question but just wanted to understand, as scouting speak can be pretty vague.

Eric A Longenhagen: Agree that it’s vague and can mean different things depending on who you talk you. It’s in-game competency for most scouts: are you taking big hacks when it’s 3-1? Are you taking pitches when the pitcher is clearly wild? Do you make clear adjustments with two strikes? Situational hitting….

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a lot of stuff.

Billy Beane: What’s the lowest you can picture Madrigal going?

Eric A Longenhagen: 5

Vinbaka: Any chance for the board that you can make it sortable by the FV for each tool? For example right now a 30/60 hit tool would get sorted by the 30. Would love to be able to sort by either.

Eric A Longenhagen: This is the kind of stuff we want to hear from you so we can add those features.

Slurve: Given the state of the Mariners’ prospects, should they focus on high ceiling or high floor guys early?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just take someone who isn’t hurt.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, I’ve gotta go. Thanks for your questions. If you’re a pet owner, give them some love from Jill and I today. See you next week.