Judge’s Court Is Back in Session

Going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts is not typically a line in a boxscore that is hailed as a grand success for the batter or the team. In this case, however, it represented Aaron Judge’s return to the Yankees’ lineup, the first time he appeared in a game in more than three months. With the Tampa Bay Rays proving to be stubbornly intransigent about complying with the whole regression toward the mean thing, getting Judge back is incredibly important for the Yankees as they try to challenge for the AL East crown.

Up until the team announced on Monday that it was activating Judge, it was difficult to pinpoint an exact timeline for when he might return from the rib injury that plopped him onto the IL in early June. After an initial hope that he’d only miss a few days, that expected recovery window was extended to maybe August, and then to an emoji shrug followed up by a crossed-fingers emoji. While the Yankees have been used to this over the years with Giancarlo Stanton, whose return from his litany of injuries is always imminent, like Krusty the Clown’s supposed arrival at Kamp Krusty to save the children, it was different to go through it with Judge. And yes, I’m an aging Xennial so of course there’s a Simpsons reference.

With Judge out, the Yankees have combined for a wRC+ of 90, second worst in baseball, ahead of only the Los Angeles Angels. New York’s ranking of 26th in runs scored does not paint a sunnier overall picture. It’s only thanks to superb pitching that the Yankees have stayed afloat. The Judge-less Yankees were the disaster scenario I specifically outlined in the preseason projections, so their putrid performance at the plate without him was not a surprise. But because they continued to win in his absence, it would take an extremely unlikely collapse of epic proportions to push them out of a playoff spot.

However, just making the playoffs was never the goal. As always, New York’s ambition is to win the World Series, and securing a first-round bye would put the club in a much better position to do that. That means the Yankees need to run down the Rays, because even if they finish with the second-best record in the AL, if they don’t win the AL East, the best they’ll get is home-field advantage in the Wild Card round. Bringing him back now, without sending him on a rehab assignment or giving him more live-BP reps before activating him, is an indication of how important the Yankees consider their captain to be. They believe that having even a rusty version of Judge in their lineup gives them their best shot to win the division.

As noted at the top, Judge’s performance itself did not look like a triumphal return to the lineup. The Yankees beat the Rockies, as you’re supposed to do most of the time, but Judge got rung up on strikeouts on fastballs from Gabriel Hughes and Mark Manfredi, one of them swinging, and his only ball in play was a fairly routine fly out to Cole Carrigg. Judge was also not particularly happy about being pulled for Heliot Ramos after the sixth inning. (Ramos hit a three-run homer later that proved to be decisive.)

Meh game aside, let’s crunch some numbers on the divisional race, both with and without Judge.

Having a nearly one-in-five projected chance at winning the division is actually quite a positive prognosis for the Yankees. After all, remember, the four-game lead the Rays have over the Yankees is, for all intents and purposes, a five-game lead. Since Major League Baseball is frequently a thief of joy, we no longer have tiebreaking Game 163s. The Yankees need to sweep the Rays in their four-game series at home during the final week of the season to get the tiebreaker.

But the Yankees have other advantages. ZiPS at least believes that the Yankees are the strongest team in the AL with Judge back in the lineup, and the computer has always been lukewarm on the Rays. There are also scheduling advantages, in that ZiPS has the Yanks with a significantly easier remaining schedule than Tampa, with games against the Rockies, Mets, Twins, and Orioles still to come.

Just having Judge in the lineup is, of course, the biggest impact of his return, but there are downstream effects as well. Spencer Jones has hit as well as ZiPS — the most positive projection system on him in March — expected, and he ought to remain a part of the lineup even with Judge back. A Judge-Jones-Cody Bellinger starting lineup with Ben Rice ar DH leaves Ramos and Jasson Domínguez as quite solid role players the team can mix-and-match depending on the game.

Now, let’s cruelly re-injure Judge. Theoretically, of course, for science; do not, I repeat, do not follow Judge around after games driving a cartoon steamroller.

You’ll notice it doesn’t move the projected standings by a full win — the Yankees are at least better equipped to handle a Judge absence now, for the remainder of the regular season, than they were a few months ago — but there are significant changes in the standings. Because of those upside scenarios, losing Judge knocks a good 40% off their shot at their last chance comeback against the Rays and slices a similar chunk off their World Series championship odds.

Monday night’s game featured an unremarkable game from a remarkable player, in a win the Yankees were supposed to snatch up anyway. But since it was Judge’s return, it may have been one of the most productive hitless games you’ll ever see. New York doesn’t need to see its franchise icon immediately resume vaporizing baseballs to make the postseason, but it certainly would be convenient. The Rays have spent a whole year rejecting ZiPS’ suggestions that they stop being quite so good, and the calendar is rapidly running out of opportunities for the Yankees to punish Tampa Bay’s obstinacy. With Aaron Judge back in the lineup and four games left to play against the Rays, the Yankees have just enough mathematical daylight to cause trouble.