Justin Verlander Doesn’t Look Like a Postseason Option for the Astros

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Justin Verlander did not have a good night on Sunday against the Diamondbacks in Houston. The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer retired just nine of the 19 batters he faced, allowing eight runs in three innings in one of the worst starts of his 19-year career — and not an isolated one, either, as he’s been struggling since returning from his second stint on the injured list. For as difficult as it is to believe, even in a rotation that’s been beset by injuries this year, Verlander might not be one of the Astros’ starters when the playoffs roll around.

At Minute Maid Park on Sunday evening, Verlander worked a scoreless first inning, getting ahead of all four hitters he faced and allowing just one baserunner; he hit Joc Pederson on the left leg with a two-out, two-strike curveball. His second and third innings were another story, however, as he allowed seven runs on a pair of homers by Pavin Smith, and, well, you can do the math as to the traffic that preceded them.

Struggling to command his fastball and not fooling anyone with his secondaries, Verlander netted just four swings and misses from among his 75 pitches, all on his four-seamer, and got just six called strikes from his curve, slider, and changeup combined (18% CSW%). For just the fifth time in 523 career starts and the first time since July 2, 2017, he didn’t strike out a single hitter. The eight runs he allowed were one short of his career high, set on April 15, 2017; he hadn’t allowed exactly eight runs since June 26, 2016.

“I felt good physically, but obviously the results were atrocious,” said Verlander afterwards. “Seemed like they had a really good game plan and saw some pitches pretty well, in some surprising spots,” he added. More, via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome:

“I found myself behind a lot because I wasn’t able to land [my secondary pitches], and they did some damage on some fastballs because of that,” Verlander said. “I thought the fastball was better today overall. The offspeed was a bit inconsistent location-wise, which got me in a little bit of trouble.”

This is just the latest start in what’s been a trying season for Verlander, who was behind schedule when he reported to camp in February and started the year on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. He didn’t make his season debut until April 19, and made just 10 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 5.00 FIP before landing on the IL due to neck discomfort. He missed over 10 weeks, and since returning has allowed three homers and 19 runs in 17.2 innings, with 13 of those runs allowed in 7.2 innings over his last two starts. He hasn’t pitched more than five innings since May 29, and his season ERA has ballooned to 5.30, his FIP to 5.10. Both of those figures are career highs, as is his 1.69 homers per nine; meanwhile, his 19.3% strikeout rate and 12.0% strikeout-to-walk differential are his lowest marks since his subpar 2014.

So, what’s gone wrong? Verlander has lost a bit of zip, but the bigger issue is that the shape of his pitches has changed. His average four-seam velocity has declined from 94.3 mph last year — a season in which he was plenty serviceable, pitching to a 3.22 ERA and 3.84 FIP for the Mets and Astros — to 93.5 overall, though it was at 94.1 mph on Sunday night. His changeup is getting less horizontal break than it did last year, his curve is getting less movement in both planes, and his slider is getting notably less spin and far less vertical movement. But what’s a bit of a head-scratcher is how differently our two pitch modeling systems view those offerings. Throwing in his Cy Young-winning 2022 and last year’s numbers for comparison:

Justin Verlander via Stuff+ and PitchingBot
Season Stf+ FA Stf+ SL Stf+ CU Stf+ CH Stuff+ Location+ Pitching+
2022 136 148 119 85 135 107 113
2023 97 127 105 102 106 104 105
2024 117 127 113 116 118 101 103
Season botOvr FA botStf SL botStf CU botStf CH botStf botCmd botOvr
2022 58 47 37 64 48 61 59
2023 54 41 31 61 42 59 53
2024 53 30 27 59 39 50 43
Stuff+ scores are normalized to an average of 100, PitchingBot scores are normalized to a 20–80 scouting scale.

Those are two very different readings when it comes to Verlander’s breaking balls. Stuff+ grades his slider and curve as much better than average, while PitchingBot grades them as well below average. I think the discrepancy owes to characteristics that the latter captures, such as count and location, that the former does not; those aspects are folded into Location+, though by the Stuff+ system, Verlander is still slightly above average in that area. The trend of Verlander’s Bot overall grades jibes with with what we’ve seen lately, a pitcher on the decline.

Turning to Verlander’s results broken down by pitch type:

Justin Verlander 2023 vs. 2024 by Pitch Type
Pitch Type Season % PA BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV Whiff%
4-Seam 2023 50.0% 334 .235 .254 .417 .464 .309 .337 92.5 18.1%
4-Seam 2024 49.5% 183 .298 .245 .522 .456 .378 .334 90.4 21.3%
Slider 2023 25.3% 184 .201 .182 .325 .287 .258 .238 86.2 29.2%
Slider 2024 18.3% 71 .212 .217 .379 .363 .272 .276 88.0 22.0%
Curve 2023 20.0% 123 .241 .226 .328 .319 .271 .260 87.0 24.4%
Curve 2024 22.5% 43 .325 .283 .500 .466 .379 .346 84.4 20.4%
Changeup 2023 4.7% 28 .214 .247 .286 .537 .215 .325 88.0 28.6%
Changeup 2024 9.6% 29 .154 .185 .154 .266 .194 .245 83.1 27.6%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Verlander’s wOBA against his four-seamer and curve have both risen dramatically relative to last season; batters are slugging over .500 against both. His slider has been only a bit worse in terms of results, though its whiff rate is way down, and he’s throwing it a lot less often while roughly doubling the usage of his changeup, the one pitch whose results have improved since 2023.

One strange aspect of Verlander’s season is that he pitched reasonably well in the period between his two IL stints, when the Astros were scuffling, but the day that he went back on, June 18, was the same day that the Astros lost to the lowly White Sox and fell to 33-40, a season-high 10-games behind the Mariners in the AL West race. In the span of his second absence, the Astros went 35-17. Since his return, they’re 9-9, but they now lead the Mariners by 4.5 games, and have a 96.1% chance of winning the division according to our Playoff Odds.

The Astros have done all of this despite getting little to nothing from four starters who played key roles on their 2022 World Series winning team and who they hoped would contribute this season. Both Cristian Javier and José Urquidy underwent Tommy John surgery in early June; the former made just seven starts before being sidelined, while the latter didn’t make it past a May rehab stint. Meanwhile, both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. experienced setbacks while rehabbing from their 2023 elbow surgeries (Tommy John surgery in May for the former, flexor tendon repair and bone spur removal in June for the latter), and won’t pitch for the Astros this season.

All of that has left the team with a very different rotation from years past, with 30-year-old lefty Framber Valdez and 25-year-old righty Hunter Brown the only current starters who made at least a dozen starts for last year’s team. Valdez, who himself missed 15 days in April due to elbow inflammation but has shown no ill effects, is the staff ace. He’s pitched to a 2.97 ERA and 3.21 FIP, and one has to figure that he’ll be Houston’s Game 1 starter come the playoffs. Brown was torched for a 9.78 ERA in 23 innings in March and April; in his April 11 start against the Royals, he allowed 11 hits and nine runs in just two-thirds of an inning. He’s rebounded in fine fashion by integrating a sinker against righties, giving him a pitch that runs in on their hands while his other pitches tail away. It’s worked like a charm, as he’s posted a 2.28 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 130 innings since the start of May, lowering his full-season marks into respectable range (3.47 ERA, 3.63 FIP).

Rounding out what has lately been a six-man rotation are 33-year-old lefty Yusei Kikuchi, 30-year-old righty Ronel Blanco, and 24-year-old righty Spencer Arrighetti, a trio of pitchers who have taken drastically different routes to get here. Kikuchi is a former NPB star who’s now in his walk year; he was dealt to the Astros by the Blue Jays on July 29 in exchange for a trio of prospects. Where he was only so-so in Toronto, pitching to a 4.75 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 115.2 innings, he’s been exceptional for Houston, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 41 innings. As old friend Eno Sarris recently explained, the Astros directed him to adjust his arsenal:

The most obvious change has been throttling the use of his curveball in exchange for more sliders. No matter what metric you look at, the slider was superior to the slower breaking ball. Be it slugging allowed (.430 for the curve this year, .301 for the slider), or whiff rate (29 percent for the slider, 28 percent for the curve), or Stuff+, which looks only at physical characteristics (112 for the slider, 99 for the curve), the slider looks like the plus pitch to feature in Kikuchi’s arsenal. For good reason, as there are only four qualified starters who throw a harder one, and only one of those (Gavin Stone) gets more drop along with that plus velocity.

The pitch has given Kikuchi a new weapon against righties when thrown low and away. He’s lowered his wOBA allowed against them from .331 to .267, but he’s also cut his wOBA allowed against lefties from .298 to .207, and upped his overall strikeout rate from 26.2% to 32.1%.

Blanco was a man of mystery until he threw the season’s first no-hitter on April 1. He’s a Dominican-born late bloomer who debuted with the Astros in 2022 but until last year hadn’t made more than two starts in a season since 2017, his second in pro ball. After making seven starts and 10 relief appearances last year (he graduated from rookie status as a 35+ FV prospect), he won the fifth starter job out of spring training and has taken a big step forward on the strength of his slider and changeup. The slider has generated a 32.6% whiff rate while holding batters to a .183 average and .288 slugging percentage; its 16-run value ranks second in the majors according to Statcast. The changeup has generated a 35.2% whiff rate while holding batters to a .182 average and .370 slugging percentage, and overall he’s delivered a 2.99 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 150.1 innings. That’s already more than double last year’s 73.1 between Triple-A Sugar Land and Houston, and well beyond his previous career high of 88, set in 2017. His two innings of relief on Saturday are may signal his postseason role.

Arrighetti is a former sixth-round pick (2021) out of the University of Louisiana-Lafayette who entered the season as the Astros’ no. 7 prospect, a 40+ FV starter with a plus slider and a 91-94 mph fastball but fringy command. He joined the rotation on April 10, when he was thrashed for seven runs in three innings by the Royals, and through July 2 was still carrying a 6.13 ERA and 4.61 FIP. He’s been much better since, lowering his overall marks to 4.82 and 4.22, respectively; in August, he had games with 11, 12, and 13 strikeouts. That said, he couldn’t get out of the first inning of his September 4 start against the Reds, retiring just two of the 11 hitters he faced and getting charged with nine runs (three earned). He’s likely one of the odd men out when it comes to crafting a postseason rotation, particularly given that his 133.1 innings is already a career high, surpassing last year’s 124.2 innings at Sugar Land and Double-A Corpus Christi.

A quick comparison of the Astros’ starters’ recent performances illustrates that manager Joe Espada has much better options than Verlander at his disposal when it comes to assembling a postseason rotation. Here’s that sextet’s performance since the All-Star break:

Astros Starting Pitchers in the Second Half
Pitcher GS IP K% BB% HR/9 ERA FIP
Framber Valdez 9 59.0 32.3% 8.2% 0.46 1.83 2.40
Hunter Brown 9 54.2 25.8% 7.8% 0.33 1.65 2.54
Yusei Kikuchi 7 41.0 32.1% 6.1% 1.32 3.07 3.23
Spencer Arrighetti 8 45.0 31.5% 8.7% 1.40 3.40 3.69
Ronel Blanco 8 39.1 25.4% 11.0% 1.14 4.35 4.12
Justin Verlander 4 17.2 13.8% 8.0% 1.53 9.68 5.39

The Astros will only need three starters for the Wild Card Series, but if they advance they’ll need a fourth, in which case the choice would appear to come down to one of the two pitchers who’s in uncharted territory for innings, or one who’s been quite ineffective lately.

With three Cy Youngs, 260 career wins, 3,405 strikeouts, and the no. 19 ranking in S-JAWS, Verlander is a first-ballot Hall of Famer in the making. But barring a dramatic turnaround over the final few weeks of the season, the case for him starting in the postseason is thin unless one considers his past glories. That’s not to say this should be the end of the line for Verlander — who will be a free agent this winter since he’ll fall short of the 140 innings needed to trigger a $35 million conditional option — but he and the Astros have work to do to figure out how he can regain effectiveness.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

21 Comments
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CC AFCmember since 2016
1 month ago

Bummer dude. Was hoping he’d reach 300 wins just because he looks like he might be the last guy who could ever hit that number. That looks well out of reach now.

elisbedwynn
1 month ago
Reply to  CC AFC

You never know. Doesn’t look promising, but he’s said he wants to keep pitching until 45. Maybe setbacks will change that, but even if he’s just competent or serviceable I’d like to see him around for a few more years

EonADSmember since 2024
1 month ago
Reply to  elisbedwynn

We don’t need him doing a Waino and hanging on well past his expiration date. That whole last season was painful to watch, and imagine Verlander with nothing left would be even worse.

Lanidrac
1 month ago
Reply to  EonADS

It seems to me that Verlander is already at that point. Depending on how the rest of his season goes, there’s a pretty good chance no one will be willing to sign him this winter, thus forcing him into retirement.

EonADSmember since 2024
1 month ago
Reply to  Lanidrac

Not remotely comparable. His K, BB, velocity, and other metrics are almost identical to his role last year as a serviceable #3 SP. Wainright’s stuff fell off a cliff in his last season; his K% dipped by eight percentage points and was a bit over half his peak numbers, with a 3 MPH drop in velocity, resulting in his ERA/xERA rising to over two runs higher than Verlander’s this year. Verlander still has options if he can sort out the worst of what he can still do. But I don’t think he’d be any better than Waino’s last year at 45.

Last edited 1 month ago by EonADS
Lanidrac
1 month ago
Reply to  EonADS

Yeah, and Verlander’s pitches have all gotten worse since he came back, including a dip in velocity. That’s not something that’s easy to fix.

While he’s relatively not as far gone as Wainwright was, starters in their 40’s likely to post an ERA significantly over 5.00 still aren’t much more in demand than those who post an ERA over 7.00.

EonADSmember since 2024
1 month ago
Reply to  Lanidrac

It’s honestly easy to see why, though; his arm angle and release point are both off since returning. Which is a common thing that happens, especially when returning from injury. Yes, his stuff has regressed, but not nearly to the same level as Wainright, or even to the level that he has nothing left. Verlander still has enough stuff to qualify as a back-end starter, especially if he can fix the worst of his command problems or gain anything back stuff-wise on his non-fastballs. He was running a 3.95 ERA with a 21.3 K%, and 7.1 BB% prior to his injury. That’s solid enough. He doesn’t need to be amazing to still pitch. Pitch in the postseason outside of mop-up duty, sure, but not in the regular season.

Last edited 1 month ago by EonADS
sadtrombonemember since 2020
1 month ago
Reply to  elisbedwynn

I just don’t see how he’s going to stay healthy and effective long enough to win another 40 games. I definitely can see how he might be better next year than he has been this year, but expecting him to do better and maintain it long enough to get to 300 is another thing entirely.

PressXToJason
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Yeah, it’s not 2011 anymore, he’s not about to start going 7 innings every time out there, and, if he doesn’t, he’s not getting 40 wins within 3 seasons, even if his teams are good and he’s good. And nobody pitches effectively into their mid-40s now unless they throw extremely softly or they have extra help.

MikeDmember since 2016
1 month ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Hard to say if it’s well out of reach, although I always figured it would be a stretch with how starting pitchers are used today and, of course, his age and the likelihood of increasing injuries. The lost Covid/TJS two seasons, and now this season of setbacks, has taken him well off course. That said, and as I noted elsewhere, I would not be assuming what we’re seeing now is what Verlander will be in 2025. Still plenty left to work with. He’s smart. He’s competitive. He can make adjustments and still have a shot, but I wouldn’t bet on it at this stage.

Will there never be another 300-game winner? They’d need to make some rules changes, which they should consider. Maybe a starter now needs to only pitch into the 5th inning, and/or if the starter leaves with the lead but the bullpen blows the lead and the team comes back, maybe the win is still rewarded to the starter. That would pump up some starter wins, perhaps restoring some of the luster to being a starter.

MikeSmember since 2020
1 month ago
Reply to  MikeD

7 guys have won 40 games from age 42 onward. One pitched 100 years ago (Jack Quinn), 2 were knuckleballers (Niekro, Hough), 2 reinvented themselves as junkballers by that age (Colon, Moyer), and 2 were sorta comparable to JV (Ryan, Johnson).

So not impossible, but not at all likely.

duncanbishop1member since 2020
1 month ago
Reply to  MikeS

Jack Quinn had quite an interesting career. Slovakian born, pitched deep into his 40s, etc.

dangledanglemember since 2024
1 month ago
Reply to  MikeS

Moyer was always a junk baller.