KATOH’s Top 250 Draft-Eligible College Players

The draft is right around the corner, and KATOH’s here with some content. Today, I give you projections for the top-250 draft-eligible college players. This list considers all Division 1 players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced this season. These projections don’t just incorporate this year’s data, but also consider performances from 2016, 2015, and last summer’s Cape Cod League. I consider this to be a vast improvement over the work on amateur prospects I’ve done in the past.

I derived these projections using a methodology similar to the one I use for minor leaguers. I ran a series of probit regression analyses on historical data to determine the likelihood that a player will reach a variety of WAR thresholds (Playing in MLB, >0.5 WAR, >1 WAR, >2 WAR, etc.) through age 28. The resulting probabilities were used to generate a point estimate for each player’s WAR through age 28. The projections take into account performance, conference, age and height. They also account for defensive position for hitters and batters faced per game for pitchers. All of these factors are weighted accordingly based on the major-league careers of historical college players.

There are thousands of Division 1 baseball players, and the data is often unruly and prone to inaccuracies. Furthermore, determining who’s draft-eligible is often tricky, as birthdays and high-school graduation years are sometimes hard to track down. A bunch of front offices didn’t realize T.J. Friedl was eligible for the draft last year, so this isn’t just a me problem. All of this is to say that I can’t be 100% sure nobody was left off erroneously, so feel free to ask if your favorite college prospect isn’t listed.

I will provide further analysis on many of these players once we know where they end up, so check back next week. One quick observation: there’s been much debate over whether Louisville’s Brendan McKay should be selected as a pitcher or a hitter. KATOH sides strongly with Team Pitcher, as it ranks him No. 1 among college players as a pitcher and No. 191 as a first baseman. However, since he’s primarily focused on pitching to date, I suppose one could argue he has more development left than your typical 21-year-old hitter with his numbers.

Now, on to the list:

KATOH’s Top 250 College Draft Prospects
Rank Name Position School WAR BA Rank FG Rank
1 Brendan McKay P Louisville 8.0 3 5
2 Griffin Canning P UCLA 6.6 26 21
3 David Peterson P Oregon 6.4 17 8
4 Luke Heimlich P Oregon State 6.4 43 34
5 Tanner Houck P Missouri 5.1 22 39
6 J.B. Bukauskas P North Carolina 3.1 6 6
7 Adam Haseley OF Virginia 2.8 8 15
8 Brent Rooker OF Mississippi State 2.7 46
9 Brian Howard P Texas Christian 2.5 346
10 Kyle Wright P Vanderbilt 2.4 2 1
11 Darren McCaughan P Long Beach State 2.3 279
12 Connor Seabold P Cal State Fullerton 2.2 187
13 Trevor Stephan P Arkansas 2.1 178
14 Devon Perez P Oklahoma 2.1
15 Alex Lange P LSU 2.1 34 38
16 Mike Gretler SS Oregon State 1.9
17 KJ Harrison 1B Oregon State 1.9 69
18 Noah Bremer P Washington 1.9 355
19 Bailey Ober P College of Charleston 1.9 301
20 Zac Lowther P Xavier 1.8 113
21 Drew Ellis 3B Louisville 1.8 67
22 Mac Sceroler P SE Louisiana 1.8 139
23 Brian Shaffer P Maryland 1.7 126
24 Tyler Holton P Florida State 1.6 181
25 Jimmy Herron OF Duke 1.5 283
26 Alex Faedo P Florida 1.5 10 14
27 Morgan Cooper P Texas 1.5
28 J.J. Schwarz 1B Florida 1.5 375
29 Deacon Liput SS Florida 1.4
30 Seth Romero P Houston 1.4 27 33
31 Pavin Smith 1B Virginia 1.4 15 18
32 Erich Uelmen P Cal Poly 1.4 274
33 Will Toffey 3B Vanderbilt 1.4 163
34 Keston Hiura 2B UC Irvine 1.3 14 17
35 Clarke Schmidt P South Carolina 1.3 32 44
36 Robert Garcia P UC Davis 1.3
37 Joey Morgan C Washington 1.3 108
38 Eli Morgan P Gonzaga 1.2
39 John Gavin P Cal State Fullerton 1.2
40 Kade McClure P Louisville 1.2
41 Kevin Merrell SS South Florida 1.1 52
42 Jeren Kendall OF Vanderbilt 1.1 18 9
43 Logan Warmoth SS North Carolina 1.0 19 20
44 Tyler Stevens P New Mexico 1.0
45 Cory Abbott P Loyola Marymount 1.0
46 Greg Deichman 3B LSU 1.0 65
47 Oliver Jaskie P Michigan 1.0
48 J.P. Sears P The Citadel 1.0
49 Ernie Clement SS Virginia 1.0 93
50 Jonah Todd OF Auburn 0.9 295
51 Cody Anderson P Washington State 0.9
52 Brett Netzer 2B UNC Charlotte 0.9 238
53 Taylor Walls SS Florida State 0.9 166
54 Lucas Gilbreath P Minnesota 0.9
55 Jared Janczak P Texas Christian 0.9
56 Gavin Sheets 1B Wake Forest 0.9 66
57 Logan Salow P Kentucky 0.8
58 Brian Miller IF North Carolina 0.8 45 49
59 Shawn Semple P New Orleans 0.8
60 Mike Papierski C LSU 0.8
61 Brock Fulkerson P SIU-Edwardsville 0.8
62 Jake Burger 3B Missouri State 0.8 20 22
63 Stuart Fairchild OF Wake Forest 0.8 44
64 Evan White 1B Kentucky 0.8 12 29
65 Spencer Howard P Cal Poly 0.8
66 J.J. Matijevic 1B Arizona 0.7 71
67 Ricky Tyler Thomas P Fresno State 0.7 228
68 Trevor Craport C Georgia Tech 0.7
69 Quinn Brodey OF Stanford 0.7 189
70 Charlie Barnes P Clemson 0.7
71 Brigham Hill P Texas A&M 0.7
72 Tanner Gardner IF Texas Tech 0.7
73 Brooks Wilson P Stetson 0.7
74 Tyler Lynn OF North Carolina 0.7
75 Evan Mendoza 3B NC State 0.7 199
76 Luke Lind P North Dakota State 0.7
77 B.J. Myers P West Virginia 0.7
78 Riles Mahan 2B Kentucky 0.7 97
79 Will Kincanon P Indiana State 0.6
80 Wyatt Marks P Louisiana-Lafayette 0.6
81 Tim Susnara C Oregon 0.6
82 Dylan Busby 3B Florida State 0.6 130
83 Ryan Lillie P UC Riverside 0.6
84 Bryce Montes de Oca P Missouri 0.6
85 Jake Mangum OF Mississippi State 0.6 170
86 Mike Baumann P Jacksonville 0.6
87 Matt McLaughlin SS Kansas 0.6 430
88 Kyle Knauth C Nicholls State 0.6
89 Devin Hemmerich P Norfolk State 0.6
90 Matt Brown P San Jose State 0.6
91 Michael Gigliotti OF Lipscomb 0.6 72
92 Alex Troop P Michigan State 0.6
93 John Sheaks P Long Beach State 0.6
94 Jake Scheiner IF Houston 0.6
95 Dalton Guthrie SS Florida 0.6 169
96 Brendan Burns P Ball State 0.6
97 Tristan Gray SS Rice 0.6
98 Brendan Hornung P Hawaii 0.5
99 L.T. Tolbert IF South Carolina 0.5
100 Blake Weiman P Kansas 0.5
101 Tyler Gray P Central Arkansas 0.5
102 Steven Ledesma P UC Santa Barbara 0.5
103 J.J. Hancock C Washington State 0.5
104 Matt Winaker 1B Stanford 0.5 317
105 Cal Stevenson OF Arizona 0.5
106 Riley Adams C San Diego 0.5 73
107 Corey Julks IF Houston 0.5
108 Colby Fitch C Louisville 0.5 255
109 Josh Rojas IF Hawaii 0.5
110 Taylor Schwaner IF SE Louisiana 0.5
111 Ryan Anderson IF UC Davis 0.5
112 Hunter Simmons IF Utah 0.5
113 Chris Muller P Texas-San Antonio 0.5
114 Logan Harasta P University at Buffalo 0.5
115 Robert Garcia P Florida Intl 0.5
116 Brady Puckett P Lipscomb 0.5
117 Ryan Noda OF Cincinnati 0.5
118 Aaron PHILLIPS P St. Bonaventure 0.5
119 Cannon Chadwick P Arkansas 0.5
120 Tate Blackman SS Mississippi 0.5
121 Sal Biasi P Penn State 0.5
122 Connor Wong C Houston 0.5 78
123 A.J. Jones P Long Beach State 0.5
124 Jason Bahr P Central Florida 0.4
125 Hunter Martin P Tennessee 0.4
126 Blaine Knight P Arkansas 0.4 88 42
127 Nelson Mompierre C Missouri 0.4
128 Joe Dunand 3B NC State 0.4 131
129 Ryan Simpler P East Tennessee State 0.4
130 Bryan Sammons P Western Carolina 0.4
131 Tyler Buffett P Oklahoma State 0.4 354
132 Tony Dibrell P Kennesaw State 0.4
133 Conner Dotson P West Virginia 0.4
134 Carson Lance P Lamar 0.4
135 Nelson Martz P SIU-Edwardsville 0.4
136 Andrew Weston P Cal State Northridge 0.4
137 Sean Bouchard IF UCLA 0.4 190
138 James Karinchak P Bryant University 0.4
139 Chad Whitmer P Southern Illinois 0.4
140 Adam Scott P Wofford 0.4
141 Tyler Johnson P South Carolina 0.4
142 Garrett McCain OF Oklahoma State 0.4
143 Jake Thompson P Oregon State 0.4
144 Chris Williams C Clemson 0.4 119
145 Griffin Roberts P Wake Forest 0.4
146 Blake Chisolm IF Sam Houston State 0.4
147 Luke Rasmussen 1B Long Beach State 0.4
148 Montana Parsons P Baylor 0.4
149 Daniel Rosica C UCLA 0.4
150 Connor Van Hoose P Bucknell 0.4
151 Caleb Knight C Virginia 0.4
152 Jordan Pearce IF Nevada 0.3
153 Austin Goeke P Wagner 0.3
154 Daniel Johnson P Charleston Southern 0.3
155 Zach Gahagan SS North Carolina 0.3
156 Alex Cunningham P Coastal Carolina 0.3
157 Josh Dye P Florida Gulf Coast 0.3
158 Zach Kirtley IF St. Mary’s 0.3
159 Jakob Hernandez P Texas-Arlington 0.3
160 Garrett Benge 3B Oklahoma State 0.3
161 Jordan Rodgers 3B Tennessee 0.3 397
162 Lucas Tancas IF Long Beach State 0.3
163 Slater Lee P Cal Poly 0.3
164 Trey Harris IF Missouri 0.3
165 Carter Johnson P Texas-Pan American 0.3
166 Ryan Day P Duke 0.3
167 Alex Fagalde P UC Riverside 0.3
168 Heath Donica P Sam Houston State 0.3
169 Brandon Hughes OF Michigan State 0.3 241
170 Jared Young IF Old Dominion 0.3
171 Dallas Carroll IF Utah 0.3
172 Deon Stafford C St. Joseph’s 0.3 132
173 Shane Matheny IF Washington State 0.3
174 Kevin Smith SS Maryland 0.3 80
175 Zach Rutherford SS Old Dominion 0.3 102
176 Kutter Crawford P Florida Gulf Coast 0.3
177 Cole Stapler P Nicholls State 0.3
178 Conner Fikes IF Stephen F. Austin 0.3
179 Mitchell Traver P Texas Christian 0.3
180 Jayson Rose P Utah 0.3
181 Will Golsan IF Mississippi 0.3
182 Orlando Razo P UC Davis 0.3
183 Christian Hicks IF Florida 0.3
184 Brewer Hicklen OF Alabama-Birmingham 0.3 282
185 Jacob Stevens P Boston College 0.3
186 Zach Reks IF Kentucky 0.3
187 Bryce Dyrda P USC 0.3 421
188 Cole Gordon P Mississippi State 0.3
189 Gavin Wallace P Fairfield 0.3
190 Mark Kolozsvary C Florida 0.3 433
(191) Brendan McKay 1B Louisville 0.3 3 5
191 Naithen Dewsnap P Cal State Bakersfield 0.3
192 Kyle Nelson P UC Santa Barbara 0.3
193 Kyle Davis OF West Virginia 0.3
194 Rollie Lacy P Creighton 0.3
195 Adalberto Carrillo IF USC 0.3
196 Tom Cosgrove P Manhattan College 0.3
197 Raphael Gladu IF Louisiana Tech 0.3
198 Keegan Thompson P Auburn 0.3
199 Kevin Baker P Portland 0.3
200 Kirk McCarty P Southern Miss 0.3
201 Mike Rivera C Florida 0.3 32
202 Jamie Galazin OF St. John’s 0.3
203 Austin Bush IF UC Santa Barbara 0.2
204 Neil Uskali P Hawaii 0.2
205 Vincenzo Aiello P Oklahoma 0.2
206 Zach Potojecki P Longwood 0.2
207 Kevin Hickey P USC-Upstate 0.2
208 Justin Lewis P Kentucky 0.2
209 Josh McLain OF NC State 0.2 246
210 Alan Strong P UNLV 0.2
211 Spencer Orr P UNC Asheville 0.2
212 Andrew Shaps OF Arizona State 0.2 420
213 Dane Myers 3B Rice 0.2 285
214 Maddux Conger P Vanderbilt 0.2
215 Brady Feigl P Mississippi 0.2
216 Willy Yahn IF Connecticut 0.2
217 Doug Still P Missouri State 0.2
218 Samuel Myers P Cal State Northridge 0.2
219 Brenton Arriaga P Loyola Marymount 0.2
220 Jake Bennett OF Oregon 0.2
221 Mark Watson P Jackson State 0.2
222 Luke Becker IF Kentucky 0.2
223 Jake Palomaki IF Boston College 0.2
224 Nick Lewis P Baylor 0.2
225 Kyle Kaufman C Alabama 0.2
226 Mikey Diekroeger IF Stanford 0.2
227 Zack Ridgely P Radford 0.2
228 Cory Malcom P Ark-Little Rock 0.2
229 Brent Mattson P Eastern Michigan 0.2
230 Josh McMinn P Oral Roberts 0.2
231 Calvin Faucher P UC Irvine 0.2
232 Lincoln Henzman P Louisville 0.2
233 Colin Brockhouse P Ball State 0.2
234 Parker Rigler P Kansas State 0.2
235 Jeff Schank P Butler 0.2
236 Brad Bass P Notre Dame 0.2
237 Jake Bird P UCLA 0.2 266
238 Jacob Patterson P Texas Tech 0.2
239 Alec Bettinger P Virginia 0.2
240 Dalton Westfall P Tennessee-Martin 0.2
241 Michael Catlin P Longwood 0.2
242 Brett Bond C Missouri 0.2
243 Patrick Schnieders P Evansville 0.2
244 Nick Walker SS Old Dominion 0.2
245 Hayden Deal P Presbyterian College 0.2
246 Connor Heady SS Kentucky 0.2 359
247 David Campbell IF San Jose State 0.2
248 William Montgomerie P Connecticut 0.2 250
249 Jack Piekos P Eastern Kentucky 0.2
250 Gunner Leger P Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2

We hoped you liked reading KATOH’s Top 250 Draft-Eligible College Players by Chris Mitchell!

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Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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West21
Member
West21

KATOH should be advanced enough to weed out child molesters. Get it together!

sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

I had no idea what you were talking about, but after googling…something tells me Luke Heimlich is going to be taken off some team draft boards.

cooper7d7
Member
cooper7d7