KATOH’s Top 250 Draft-Eligible College Players

by
June 9, 2017

The draft is right around the corner, and KATOH’s here with some content. Today, I give you projections for the top-250 draft-eligible college players. This list considers all Division 1 players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced this season. These projections don’t just incorporate this year’s data, but also consider performances from 2016, 2015, and last summer’s Cape Cod League. I consider this to be a vast improvement over the work on amateur prospects I’ve done in the past.

I derived these projections using a methodology similar to the one I use for minor leaguers. I ran a series of probit regression analyses on historical data to determine the likelihood that a player will reach a variety of WAR thresholds (Playing in MLB, >0.5 WAR, >1 WAR, >2 WAR, etc.) through age 28. The resulting probabilities were used to generate a point estimate for each player’s WAR through age 28. The projections take into account performance, conference, age and height. They also account for defensive position for hitters and batters faced per game for pitchers. All of these factors are weighted accordingly based on the major-league careers of historical college players.

There are thousands of Division 1 baseball players, and the data is often unruly and prone to inaccuracies. Furthermore, determining who’s draft-eligible is often tricky, as birthdays and high-school graduation years are sometimes hard to track down. A bunch of front offices didn’t realize T.J. Friedl was eligible for the draft last year, so this isn’t just a me problem. All of this is to say that I can’t be 100% sure nobody was left off erroneously, so feel free to ask if your favorite college prospect isn’t listed.

I will provide further analysis on many of these players once we know where they end up, so check back next week. One quick observation: there’s been much debate over whether Louisville’s Brendan McKay should be selected as a pitcher or a hitter. KATOH sides strongly with Team Pitcher, as it ranks him No. 1 among college players as a pitcher and No. 191 as a first baseman. However, since he’s primarily focused on pitching to date, I suppose one could argue he has more development left than your typical 21-year-old hitter with his numbers.

Now, on to the list:

KATOH’s Top 250 College Draft Prospects
Rank Name Position School WAR BA Rank FG Rank
1 Brendan McKay P Louisville 8.0 3 5
2 Griffin Canning P UCLA 6.6 26 21
3 David Peterson P Oregon 6.4 17 8
4 Luke Heimlich P Oregon State 6.4 43 34
5 Tanner Houck P Missouri 5.1 22 39
6 J.B. Bukauskas P North Carolina 3.1 6 6
7 Adam Haseley OF Virginia 2.8 8 15
8 Brent Rooker OF Mississippi State 2.7 46
9 Brian Howard P Texas Christian 2.5 346
10 Kyle Wright P Vanderbilt 2.4 2 1
11 Darren McCaughan P Long Beach State 2.3 279
12 Connor Seabold P Cal State Fullerton 2.2 187
13 Trevor Stephan P Arkansas 2.1 178
14 Devon Perez P Oklahoma 2.1
15 Alex Lange P LSU 2.1 34 38
16 Mike Gretler SS Oregon State 1.9
17 KJ Harrison 1B Oregon State 1.9 69
18 Noah Bremer P Washington 1.9 355
19 Bailey Ober P College of Charleston 1.9 301
20 Zac Lowther P Xavier 1.8 113
21 Drew Ellis 3B Louisville 1.8 67
22 Mac Sceroler P SE Louisiana 1.8 139
23 Brian Shaffer P Maryland 1.7 126
24 Tyler Holton P Florida State 1.6 181
25 Jimmy Herron OF Duke 1.5 283
26 Alex Faedo P Florida 1.5 10 14
27 Morgan Cooper P Texas 1.5
28 J.J. Schwarz 1B Florida 1.5 375
29 Deacon Liput SS Florida 1.4
30 Seth Romero P Houston 1.4 27 33
31 Pavin Smith 1B Virginia 1.4 15 18
32 Erich Uelmen P Cal Poly 1.4 274
33 Will Toffey 3B Vanderbilt 1.4 163
34 Keston Hiura 2B UC Irvine 1.3 14 17
35 Clarke Schmidt P South Carolina 1.3 32 44
36 Robert Garcia P UC Davis 1.3
37 Joey Morgan C Washington 1.3 108
38 Eli Morgan P Gonzaga 1.2
39 John Gavin P Cal State Fullerton 1.2
40 Kade McClure P Louisville 1.2
41 Kevin Merrell SS South Florida 1.1 52
42 Jeren Kendall OF Vanderbilt 1.1 18 9
43 Logan Warmoth SS North Carolina 1.0 19 20
44 Tyler Stevens P New Mexico 1.0
45 Cory Abbott P Loyola Marymount 1.0
46 Greg Deichman 3B LSU 1.0 65
47 Oliver Jaskie P Michigan 1.0
48 J.P. Sears P The Citadel 1.0
49 Ernie Clement SS Virginia 1.0 93
50 Jonah Todd OF Auburn 0.9 295
51 Cody Anderson P Washington State 0.9
52 Brett Netzer 2B UNC Charlotte 0.9 238
53 Taylor Walls SS Florida State 0.9 166
54 Lucas Gilbreath P Minnesota 0.9
55 Jared Janczak P Texas Christian 0.9
56 Gavin Sheets 1B Wake Forest 0.9 66
57 Logan Salow P Kentucky 0.8
58 Brian Miller IF North Carolina 0.8 45 49
59 Shawn Semple P New Orleans 0.8
60 Mike Papierski C LSU 0.8
61 Brock Fulkerson P SIU-Edwardsville 0.8
62 Jake Burger 3B Missouri State 0.8 20 22
63 Stuart Fairchild OF Wake Forest 0.8 44
64 Evan White 1B Kentucky 0.8 12 29
65 Spencer Howard P Cal Poly 0.8
66 J.J. Matijevic 1B Arizona 0.7 71
67 Ricky Tyler Thomas P Fresno State 0.7 228
68 Trevor Craport C Georgia Tech 0.7
69 Quinn Brodey OF Stanford 0.7 189
70 Charlie Barnes P Clemson 0.7
71 Brigham Hill P Texas A&M 0.7
72 Tanner Gardner IF Texas Tech 0.7
73 Brooks Wilson P Stetson 0.7
74 Tyler Lynn OF North Carolina 0.7
75 Evan Mendoza 3B NC State 0.7 199
76 Luke Lind P North Dakota State 0.7
77 B.J. Myers P West Virginia 0.7
78 Riles Mahan 2B Kentucky 0.7 97
79 Will Kincanon P Indiana State 0.6
80 Wyatt Marks P Louisiana-Lafayette 0.6
81 Tim Susnara C Oregon 0.6
82 Dylan Busby 3B Florida State 0.6 130
83 Ryan Lillie P UC Riverside 0.6
84 Bryce Montes de Oca P Missouri 0.6
85 Jake Mangum OF Mississippi State 0.6 170
86 Mike Baumann P Jacksonville 0.6
87 Matt McLaughlin SS Kansas 0.6 430
88 Kyle Knauth C Nicholls State 0.6
89 Devin Hemmerich P Norfolk State 0.6
90 Matt Brown P San Jose State 0.6
91 Michael Gigliotti OF Lipscomb 0.6 72
92 Alex Troop P Michigan State 0.6
93 John Sheaks P Long Beach State 0.6
94 Jake Scheiner IF Houston 0.6
95 Dalton Guthrie SS Florida 0.6 169
96 Brendan Burns P Ball State 0.6
97 Tristan Gray SS Rice 0.6
98 Brendan Hornung P Hawaii 0.5
99 L.T. Tolbert IF South Carolina 0.5
100 Blake Weiman P Kansas 0.5
101 Tyler Gray P Central Arkansas 0.5
102 Steven Ledesma P UC Santa Barbara 0.5
103 J.J. Hancock C Washington State 0.5
104 Matt Winaker 1B Stanford 0.5 317
105 Cal Stevenson OF Arizona 0.5
106 Riley Adams C San Diego 0.5 73
107 Corey Julks IF Houston 0.5
108 Colby Fitch C Louisville 0.5 255
109 Josh Rojas IF Hawaii 0.5
110 Taylor Schwaner IF SE Louisiana 0.5
111 Ryan Anderson IF UC Davis 0.5
112 Hunter Simmons IF Utah 0.5
113 Chris Muller P Texas-San Antonio 0.5
114 Logan Harasta P University at Buffalo 0.5
115 Robert Garcia P Florida Intl 0.5
116 Brady Puckett P Lipscomb 0.5
117 Ryan Noda OF Cincinnati 0.5
118 Aaron PHILLIPS P St. Bonaventure 0.5
119 Cannon Chadwick P Arkansas 0.5
120 Tate Blackman SS Mississippi 0.5
121 Sal Biasi P Penn State 0.5
122 Connor Wong C Houston 0.5 78
123 A.J. Jones P Long Beach State 0.5
124 Jason Bahr P Central Florida 0.4
125 Hunter Martin P Tennessee 0.4
126 Blaine Knight P Arkansas 0.4 88 42
127 Nelson Mompierre C Missouri 0.4
128 Joe Dunand 3B NC State 0.4 131
129 Ryan Simpler P East Tennessee State 0.4
130 Bryan Sammons P Western Carolina 0.4
131 Tyler Buffett P Oklahoma State 0.4 354
132 Tony Dibrell P Kennesaw State 0.4
133 Conner Dotson P West Virginia 0.4
134 Carson Lance P Lamar 0.4
135 Nelson Martz P SIU-Edwardsville 0.4
136 Andrew Weston P Cal State Northridge 0.4
137 Sean Bouchard IF UCLA 0.4 190
138 James Karinchak P Bryant University 0.4
139 Chad Whitmer P Southern Illinois 0.4
140 Adam Scott P Wofford 0.4
141 Tyler Johnson P South Carolina 0.4
142 Garrett McCain OF Oklahoma State 0.4
143 Jake Thompson P Oregon State 0.4
144 Chris Williams C Clemson 0.4 119
145 Griffin Roberts P Wake Forest 0.4
146 Blake Chisolm IF Sam Houston State 0.4
147 Luke Rasmussen 1B Long Beach State 0.4
148 Montana Parsons P Baylor 0.4
149 Daniel Rosica C UCLA 0.4
150 Connor Van Hoose P Bucknell 0.4
151 Caleb Knight C Virginia 0.4
152 Jordan Pearce IF Nevada 0.3
153 Austin Goeke P Wagner 0.3
154 Daniel Johnson P Charleston Southern 0.3
155 Zach Gahagan SS North Carolina 0.3
156 Alex Cunningham P Coastal Carolina 0.3
157 Josh Dye P Florida Gulf Coast 0.3
158 Zach Kirtley IF St. Mary’s 0.3
159 Jakob Hernandez P Texas-Arlington 0.3
160 Garrett Benge 3B Oklahoma State 0.3
161 Jordan Rodgers 3B Tennessee 0.3 397
162 Lucas Tancas IF Long Beach State 0.3
163 Slater Lee P Cal Poly 0.3
164 Trey Harris IF Missouri 0.3
165 Carter Johnson P Texas-Pan American 0.3
166 Ryan Day P Duke 0.3
167 Alex Fagalde P UC Riverside 0.3
168 Heath Donica P Sam Houston State 0.3
169 Brandon Hughes OF Michigan State 0.3 241
170 Jared Young IF Old Dominion 0.3
171 Dallas Carroll IF Utah 0.3
172 Deon Stafford C St. Joseph’s 0.3 132
173 Shane Matheny IF Washington State 0.3
174 Kevin Smith SS Maryland 0.3 80
175 Zach Rutherford SS Old Dominion 0.3 102
176 Kutter Crawford P Florida Gulf Coast 0.3
177 Cole Stapler P Nicholls State 0.3
178 Conner Fikes IF Stephen F. Austin 0.3
179 Mitchell Traver P Texas Christian 0.3
180 Jayson Rose P Utah 0.3
181 Will Golsan IF Mississippi 0.3
182 Orlando Razo P UC Davis 0.3
183 Christian Hicks IF Florida 0.3
184 Brewer Hicklen OF Alabama-Birmingham 0.3 282
185 Jacob Stevens P Boston College 0.3
186 Zach Reks IF Kentucky 0.3
187 Bryce Dyrda P USC 0.3 421
188 Cole Gordon P Mississippi State 0.3
189 Gavin Wallace P Fairfield 0.3
190 Mark Kolozsvary C Florida 0.3 433
(191) Brendan McKay 1B Louisville 0.3 3 5
191 Naithen Dewsnap P Cal State Bakersfield 0.3
192 Kyle Nelson P UC Santa Barbara 0.3
193 Kyle Davis OF West Virginia 0.3
194 Rollie Lacy P Creighton 0.3
195 Adalberto Carrillo IF USC 0.3
196 Tom Cosgrove P Manhattan College 0.3
197 Raphael Gladu IF Louisiana Tech 0.3
198 Keegan Thompson P Auburn 0.3
199 Kevin Baker P Portland 0.3
200 Kirk McCarty P Southern Miss 0.3
201 Mike Rivera C Florida 0.3 32
202 Jamie Galazin OF St. John’s 0.3
203 Austin Bush IF UC Santa Barbara 0.2
204 Neil Uskali P Hawaii 0.2
205 Vincenzo Aiello P Oklahoma 0.2
206 Zach Potojecki P Longwood 0.2
207 Kevin Hickey P USC-Upstate 0.2
208 Justin Lewis P Kentucky 0.2
209 Josh McLain OF NC State 0.2 246
210 Alan Strong P UNLV 0.2
211 Spencer Orr P UNC Asheville 0.2
212 Andrew Shaps OF Arizona State 0.2 420
213 Dane Myers 3B Rice 0.2 285
214 Maddux Conger P Vanderbilt 0.2
215 Brady Feigl P Mississippi 0.2
216 Willy Yahn IF Connecticut 0.2
217 Doug Still P Missouri State 0.2
218 Samuel Myers P Cal State Northridge 0.2
219 Brenton Arriaga P Loyola Marymount 0.2
220 Jake Bennett OF Oregon 0.2
221 Mark Watson P Jackson State 0.2
222 Luke Becker IF Kentucky 0.2
223 Jake Palomaki IF Boston College 0.2
224 Nick Lewis P Baylor 0.2
225 Kyle Kaufman C Alabama 0.2
226 Mikey Diekroeger IF Stanford 0.2
227 Zack Ridgely P Radford 0.2
228 Cory Malcom P Ark-Little Rock 0.2
229 Brent Mattson P Eastern Michigan 0.2
230 Josh McMinn P Oral Roberts 0.2
231 Calvin Faucher P UC Irvine 0.2
232 Lincoln Henzman P Louisville 0.2
233 Colin Brockhouse P Ball State 0.2
234 Parker Rigler P Kansas State 0.2
235 Jeff Schank P Butler 0.2
236 Brad Bass P Notre Dame 0.2
237 Jake Bird P UCLA 0.2 266
238 Jacob Patterson P Texas Tech 0.2
239 Alec Bettinger P Virginia 0.2
240 Dalton Westfall P Tennessee-Martin 0.2
241 Michael Catlin P Longwood 0.2
242 Brett Bond C Missouri 0.2
243 Patrick Schnieders P Evansville 0.2
244 Nick Walker SS Old Dominion 0.2
245 Hayden Deal P Presbyterian College 0.2
246 Connor Heady SS Kentucky 0.2 359
247 David Campbell IF San Jose State 0.2
248 William Montgomerie P Connecticut 0.2 250
249 Jack Piekos P Eastern Kentucky 0.2
250 Gunner Leger P Louisiana-Lafayette 0.2

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Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

36 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
West21
9 years ago

KATOH should be advanced enough to weed out child molesters. Get it together!

1
sadtromboneMember since 2020
9 years ago
Reply to  West21

I had no idea what you were talking about, but after googling…something tells me Luke Heimlich is going to be taken off some team draft boards.

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I had the exact same confusion at first. Rumor has it a bunch of teams have already taken him off.

0
sadtromboneMember since 2020
9 years ago

8 WAR for Brendan McKay as a *pitcher*? Plus over 6 WAR for Griffin Canning, Luke Heimlich, and David Peterson! That’s incredibly impressive because KATOH hates pitchers as a rule. A strong endorsement for the college arms in this draft if I’ve seen them.

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

The pitchers are good, but I think a big part of it is the lack of good college bats. Most of the best offensive guys are 1B and college 1B don’t project well. So there aren’t really a lot of standout hitters.

2
Jetsy Extrano
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris Mitchell

Seems a reasonable story, but the love for pitchers is pretty intense. If it’s about this year’s crop, have you run the same code over past years of data and gotten more balanced results there?

1
sadtromboneMember since 2020
9 years ago
Reply to  Jetsy Extrano

Right. The top three or four pitchers here have similar projections to the #4-#6 minor league KATOH projections.

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  Jetsy Extrano

Just looked at eligible players from 2005-2009. There were on average 20 hitters and 9 pitchers > 2 WAR, so this distribution seems to be unusual.

Haven’t compiled for more recent years yet, though, so its possible the “typical” distributions look a little different following the fluctuation of run environments due to new bats and balls. I accounted for the changes in theory, but I suppose the new run environment might make the best players stand out in different ways statistically, causing KATOH to handle them a bit differently.

2
thomk07
9 years ago

Chris, is it possible to show us the top college prospects by expected WAR over the past 5 years or so? It would be good to put some perspective on this.

4
TKDCMember since 2016🏆 MVP
9 years ago

Wil Crowe not in top 250?

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

Nope, KATOH’s way down on him – 0.1 WAR. He’s on the old side (turns 23 in September) and was mediocre this year, especially in the strikeout department. But he was coming off of TJ, which might explain his iffy performance.

1
waka25Member since 2021
9 years ago

No Pratto.
Is this due to bad track record for high school 1Bfolk, or his relatively poor showing this spring?

-1
baseball0987654321
9 years ago
Reply to  waka25

This is only for college players.

2
TrigauxMember since 2016
9 years ago

Where is Royce Lewis? He’s considered a top 7 prospect by a lot of folks–what does Katoh see that they don’t?

-3
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  Trigaux

He’s a HS guy. This is only for college, as HS stats almost certainly aren’t worth crunching.

1
evo34Member since 2023
9 years ago

Do you adjust for park factors? E.g., http://www.boydsworld.com/data/pf2015.html

Also, is the order of performance factored in? That is, does it matter if a guy puts up two great years and then one bad one, vs one bad one and then two great ones?

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  evo34

Yep, I account for park factors and conference. Conference is a huge one, as succeeding in a top conference means a ton more than doing so in a lesser one. Even within D1, some conferences produce several big leaguers each year, while some go years without producing any.

The order of performance is factored in (by year). So 2017 gets significantly more weight than past years. The weighting of years comes data from from historical players.

3
evo34Member since 2023
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris Mitchell

Great stuff. Thanks for publishing this.

3
evo34Member since 2023
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris Mitchell

Do you know approx. how much projected WAR would be gained in your system if a player were listed as a SS instead of a 1B?

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  evo34

Accidentally had Matijevic as a SS instead of 1B for some reason. He changed from 1.9 to 0.7.

1
evo34Member since 2023
9 years ago

What does KATOH think of Seth Beer so far?

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  evo34

Loves him, 5.4 WAR. Second best hitter behind Nick Madrigal (8.2 WAR)

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris Mitchell

Planning to do a quick early look at next year’s guys once this draft is sufficiently covered.

1
Daniel
9 years ago

Awesome stuff, Chris. I’m surprised KATOH isn’t more bullish on Seth Romero given the same-ishness of his stat profile to Canning/Peterson. What’s the difference there?

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  Daniel

Romero’s from a weaker conference (AAC vs Pac-12), so his numbers aren’t as impressive. He’s also shorter (6-1 vs. 6-3 and 6-6) and has allowed a few more walks.

0
rodMember since 2017
9 years ago

What would be KATOH’s projection for Daulton Varsho, the LF/C from Wisconsin-Milwaukee? He is high on most team’s draft boards and his stats were pretty impressive this year.

1
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  rod

He played in the lower-tier Horizon Conference, and KATOH rarely likes hitters from weak conferences. So he missed by quite a bit. I’m suspicious that KATOH underrates top weak-conference hitters. Very few guys who play there succeed. He’s 3rd among hitters from weak conferences who didn’t play on the Cape, however, so he’s one of the best among guys in his situation.

0
avMember since 2025
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris Mitchell

Are you able to include stats from the Northwoods League? Varsho crushed that pitching.

0
cleblanc33Member since 2017
9 years ago

JJ Matijevic is not a SS

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  cleblanc33

Thanks, updated

0
evo34Member since 2023
9 years ago

Does KATOH reward hitters for hit rates (BABIP), or only peripheral stats?

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  evo34

It rewards hitters for 1B, 2B and 3B, so it effectively rewards high BABIPs that way. But it obviously prefers guys who get there with low K rates than high BABIPs

0
mattMember since 2023
9 years ago

Hey Chris, if you just ran Rooker as a 1B in KATOH how does that effect his ranking?

0
Chris Mitchell
9 years ago
Reply to  matt

Drops him down to #50

1
Brother_jd
9 years ago

Evan Skoug?

0