Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 1/31/2022

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everybody and happy Monday (or Happy Mondays for you Manchester scene folks). I got about an hour before I have to go see a house, so lets get rolling here.

Inaccessible Rail: I’m not an authority on this, but I don’t think today is 1/22/2022…

Kevin Goldstein: Not all of us are on the Gregorian calendar….

PadsFan: What is your prediction on how the Padres handle MacKenzie Gore in 2022 and what should we expect from him?

Kevin Goldstein: My goodness, who knows? Feels like there are equal chances of zero major league starts and 20.

zurzles: What’s on the docket this week for prospect lists?

Kevin Goldstein: Giants are being edited as we speak!

Keith: What are your favorite places to watch a baseball game, one major league park/city, one minor league park/city?

Kevin Goldstein: My favorite place to watch a baseball game is neither a big league park nor a minor league park, it’s Estadio  Quisqueya in Santo Domingo.

Inaccessible Rail: Do you think Jay Jaffe actually had something else to do last Friday, or do you think he just wanted you, and not he, to host the first chat after after the FG redesign?

Kevin Goldstein: I can’t imagine what Jay’s last two weeks have been like.

Steeeeve: Why did the Astros take Korey Lee in the first? They appear to have properly evaluated him but isn’t it very likely he would have been there in the second—allowing them to grab someone else in the first?

Kevin Goldstein: He was the player that made the most sense there, so why take the risk and wait?

Vince L.: Hi KG. Sure teams can’t have conversations about transactions now, but they are definitely having back-channel discussions now, no? At least tossing around ideas, informally?

Kevin Goldstein: i think they’re happening, but I really don’t think they’re happening on anything near the level a lot of fans seem to think they are happening.

Peter Brand: Is Billy Beane a genius?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ll leave that up to you. It’s undebatable that he’s a transformative figure in the modern history of baseball.

Krusty: Which version of the DH is going to end up being adopted? Universal or Double Hook?

Kevin Goldstein: Probably just universal.

Bumphadley: Thanks for all the great work you do! I have a question about the Yankees and young pitchers. The Yankees do a great job developing middle relievers and they deserve credit for that. But does that come at the expense of developing starters? Can they be faulted that so many of their pitchers seem to have bullpen arm as their ceiling?

Kevin Goldstein: Most arms are future pen arms, that’s just how it is. I don’t think there’s anything specific to what the Yankees are doing here.

Inaccessible Rail: I hope that the FG redesign doesn’t include author photos. I love Grant Brisbee’s writing in The Athletic, but I could do without that picture of him at the bottom of each article. I hope FG steers clear of this.

Kevin Goldstein: I can’t imagine not wanting to look at me more often, but hey, you do you.

joe: What are your thoughts on the questionnaires teams send out as a “first round” for their positions? I’ve found some to be pretty dense for someone working full time and a requested short turnaround.

Kevin Goldstein: I like them, but understand where you are coming from. I did them when I ran a pro scouting department, but I limited them to three questions.

Dalton Wilcox: Are you aware if anyone’s integrated statcast and/or batted ball data into prospect hunting? I’d think that would be insanely useful in this post-covid meta

Kevin Goldstein: We do! We have access to a lot of good data that plays a big role in our rankings.

Jake: Traditional stat question – Would you take the over or under on another .300 AVG/30 HR/100 RBI season for Austin Riley?

Kevin Goldstein: Under.

Guest: Kevin – I recall you speaking of the Tiger regime in positive terms recently.   What/who gives you these positive vibes?  Clearly Hinch was a step in the right direction, but are they building an organizational infrastructure for continued success that the average fan can’t see?

Kevin Goldstein: I think they are. They’ve really modernized their player development group and there are a lot of really advanced things happening in the front office, and Avila listens to that information.

Kate: Assuming Correa doesn’t re-sign in Houston, do you think the Stros grab a veteran stopgap (i.e. Simmons or the like) to complete with Pena / give him a couple months at AAA?  Or do they really just let him run with SS to start the year?

Kevin Goldstein: I could see them going with a much cheaper (than Simmons) backup plan, but I would think they want Peña to handle the gig.

William the Dodger: Should the Dodgers go all out to sign Trea Turner? If not where might he land?

Kevin Goldstein: I think they should certainly try to keep him, but as far as where he’d land, I just don’t know. I don’t know Trea, and I’m guessing you don’t either. We don’t know if he likes or loves or doesn’t playing in LA. We don’t know if he wants to be on the East Coast or if geography doesn’t matter at all. We just don’t know.

I am once again asking: about JC Correa’s play in 2021. Any chance he can be 50% of what his brother is in the MLB?

Kevin Goldstein: That would surprise me.

mike: I feel like it is reasonably safe to say Jose Altuve has hit is 95-99% percentile outcome.  If that’s accurate, how many guys in the majors do you think you can say that about?

Kevin Goldstein: doesn’t the math on that question say about 5 percent?

GrandyisaSadist: And so hey it would appear that the longer this shutdown continues to more the casual fan will realize she is not as emotionally invested in the sport as she once was and will instead turn to other pursuits such as needlepoint, bodysurfing or whittling. I guess my question is: Do I make myself fried rice for lunch or should I just make a salad with veggies from the produce drawer?

Kevin Goldstein: C’mon! Fried rice!

David: Good luck with the house search. A very fun yetstressful process.

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know man, we are enjoying it, but also NOT enjoying it. Saw a house we liked on Saturday, drove by it again on Sunday to look at it again, and by Sunday afternoon it was already contingent. ANNOYING. Market is crazy right now. The good thing is we don’t HAVE to move right now, so we’ll see what happens.

Shitty at Waiting: Giants list coming this week? Can you give me a preview on Luciano and if there’s a substantive change?

Kevin Goldstein: Coming tomorrow. Tess and I worked on it, and it’s good! Coming soon!

Mike B: House shopping? Where are current interest rates on a 30 year these days?

Kevin Goldstein: A little north of 3%.

14343: Thanks for introducing me to Weakened Friends in latest episode of Chin Music – have been listening all week.

Kevin Goldstein: This makes me excessively happy. Love to hear when people get into the indie music we play on the show.

Keith: What is about the park in the Dominican that you love so much, the energy in the stadium, being out of the country, the quality of play, the food?

Kevin Goldstein: The energy for a winter league game there is unmatched, but I’ve spent many days in that place with it pretty empty, other than scouts, for showcases and workouts. It just has a vibe.

Guest: Would you trade adell (in a package) for Luis Castillo?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh yeah.

jfast: You mentioned that Maldy brings so much to the table beyond what’s captured in the metrics. Who else comes to mind in that category?

Kevin Goldstein: Lots of catchers. Molina, Perez, etc.

Pitching prospect: Do pitchers who have TJ after being drafted and cannot pitch the next year gain any development by simply by being in an org despite not working on their pitch mix?

Kevin Goldstein: They certainly get an exceptionally good rehab experience, and one that has their long-term future in mind.

Your mom goes to college: Have the dates for FG prospect week been finalized? Looking forward to reading the content!

Kevin Goldstein: They have been, but I’m not sure it’s my place to say what they are……

TBD: Do you enjoy comic movies, and if so do you prefer madcap types, or something more probing?

Kevin Goldstein: I do not. I haven’t seen a single one. Oh wait, I did see The Joker, and found it really pretty bad. It’s just not my thing.

Erik: Projections were quite poor for Jarred Kelenic last year, and he was bad. They’re pretty mediocre (99-103 wRC+) again this year, but many people think he’s ready to break out at any time. Are you closer to the projections or the hype?

Kevin Goldstein: The projections.

Pitching prospect: By the way, thanks for that Happy Mondays reference!

Kevin Goldstein: I’m here for you.

Eric: What is Genevieve Beacom’s ceiling? Scouting report?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, I did a thing for Aussie media recently, and said that I thought she could pitch smaller college ball over here. Really good delivery, seems to be able to spin it, looked like she threw strikes.

Rebecca: Hi KG – from an aspiring female FO employee I just wanted to say thanks for all of your insights. You said last week that Correa or any other big free agent changing agents isn’t that big of a deal and the only thing that changes is “who answers the phone.” Out of curiosity, from a FO’s perspective what makes an agent “good”? Is it more dependent on the player they represent and his demands or the agency itself being really good negotiators?

Kevin Goldstein: Good luck on the job search! I just want an agent who is straightforward and responsive. No BS and keeps me (us) in the loop. That’s my big priority.

Chaim Bloon: Clearly I can rebuild a farm system and find value in all the right places, but do I actually like baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m baffled by where this question comes from. People really think he doesn’t love baseball?

171: What are these fields used for at spring complexes?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s an agility field. Warmups, stretches, playing catch, sprints, lots of utility for various rehab tasks.

Vote for Pedro: The MLB lockout has no impact on the Milb calendar correct?  Or would delayed in the MLB calendar have a trickle effect?  Thanks!

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, that’s all on pace. Minor league games at the complexes begin on or around March 18.

Jack B: What’s the best part about working with people who surround their lives with baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: The ability to consistently have really smart discussions about baseball that have the potential to change the way you think about baseball.

aces: How much does where a player goes to college affect his development? While it seems to have changed under the current staff, the “Stanford swing” always seemed to be a negative for players in the draft. Are there any specific college programs that are well ahead of the curve on development on the pitching or hitting side?

Kevin Goldstein: Vandy was way ahead of the field in terms of pitching for awhile, but many have caught up with technology and pitching labs.

Jack B: Favorite place in the US you’ve ever lived?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve only ever lived in central Ohio and northern Illinois, so . . .

KB: With velo numbers continuing to rise could a good knuckleballer possibly really help a staff as a “change of pace” guy? Or is that mostly a fallacy?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure, but it’s really hard to find a good knuckleballer.

Ross: When it comes to international signings, do you lean towards going after the top 5 guy that takes up 90% or more of the bonus pool or taking a shotgun approach? Why?

Kevin Goldstein: I think you have to be flexible. If that top 5 guy checks every box and the scouts love him, and the data loves him, and the PD people love him, you go for it.

SJ: RE: the guy talking about the quick turnaround for questionnaires. I’m in the same boat as you with a full time job and once had to complete three in one week, but I asked for an extension on one of them because of the circumstances and the team was happy to comply. Doesn’t hurt to ask for one if you’re on a serious time crunch!

Kevin Goldstein: Just passing this on….

Hyde: Really digging Yellowjackets based on your recommendation. Binged 7 episodes with wifey over the weekend. Such a slow and creepy build. Really hoping the ending delivers!

Kevin Goldstein: Will be interesting to know what you think!

Teddy: What’s George Springer like?

Kevin Goldstein: Intensely energetic and focused. Very good vibes. Happy dude.

TBD: Sorry, should have said comedies.  Do you like comedies, and if so would you prefer Dr. Strangelove, or a Bill and Ted movie?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh, Dr. Strangelove by a wide margin. It’s one of my favorites.

Gerald Ford: It was my understanding that there would be no math

Kevin Goldstein: There’s always math.

Guest: mad, mad, mad, mad, mad world is a great movie, y/n?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s a weird one. It’s one of those things that is strangely amazing to watch once, but do you want to see it again?

Alex: Is lineup or rotation diversity as important as many people make it out to be? Does it really matter if every hitter in the lineup is a flyball hitter or that every pitcher is a contact manager or is it primarily just how good each individual player is?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think it’s as important as some do. Just gimme good players.

Erik: Imagine a college pitcher who looks to be already an MLB-ready fifth starter, but for whatever reason is believed to have absolutely no ceiling above that. Where would you draft that guy?

Kevin Goldstein: Late day one?

Mitch: Have you ever heard of a situation where a front office was still in the ‘evaluation’ phase of a free agent signing or trade, and the GM blindsides the whole FO by pulling the trigger on that transaction while the team was still contemplating?

Kevin Goldstein: Yup.

Death: If you love baseball, should you try to work in a FO or stay a fan with a non-baseball job?  Working in a FO changes your relationship to the sport and is a tough life. If you could do it again, would you work in baseball (FO or writer) or just be a fan who can yell at the TV and still feel things.

Kevin Goldstein: I think that’s a personal decision. I’m not actively looking for gig with a team, as I really like my current lifestyle.

Mitch: Were there any times while working in a front office where the R&D team (for example) presented a major finding that made you permanently adjust the way you evaluate players ?

Kevin Goldstein: Many, many times.

Kevin Goldstein: The biggest example is the beginning of pitch data understanding.

Rick G: I will always appreciate you coming & sitting next to me for Luc’s first “away” backfield Spring Training game. I’m on my way West. What are the chances I see another ST game this year ‘cause I’m jonesing.

Kevin Goldstein: Hah, good to hear from you! I think you’ll get spring games this year, just a few weeks later than normal.

Jeffrey: Favorite game you’ve been to in-person?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s weird. It’s game 5 and 7 of the 2017 World Series if I can focus on those games at the time.

Jack B: Over under 150.5 game regular season?

Kevin Goldstein: That’s a really good number.

KB: If you stepped in the box against a big league pitcher and they told you a heater was coming right down the middle could you get wood on it?

Kevin Goldstein: No way. Nor would 98.92% of the readers of this chat.

Brooklyn Heights: Hi Kevin! In your experience, do prospects take great pride in high rankings by Fangraphs et al.? Specifically, I wonder if Victor Robles, long regarded as the Nats’ top prospect, lost his mojo in part because he was supplanted by Supernova Soto. Thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: I have learned over time that players read those things and take them to heart WAY more than they should!

Jeffrey: Who has some of the best hand-eye coordination in the biz?

Kevin Goldstein: Altuve, Madrigal come to mind.

Keith: Did you happen to see the Darvish slider video on twitter from the batters box viewpoint? That absolutely convinced me I could never get wood on a major league pitch

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, I don’t think fans in general realize just how amazingly, almost super-humanly good major leaguers are at baseball.

Maybe Personal: Have you ever heard David Sampson’s podcast, or his appearances on the Lebatard show? He’s clearly an asshole, but I’m not sure that makes him wrong. Hard to evaluate the accuracy of his Insights. Does he know what he’s talking about or no?

Kevin Goldstein: I have never listened to him. I have no plans to change that fact.

Haish Jim: re: the “don’t force comps” concept. Totally get it for scouts and scouting-interested fans, but for others it seems like a positive way for the layman to have a frame on a player. Thanks for your work!

Kevin Goldstein: But it’s not an accurate frame….

Keith: Have you moved on to a new show since finishing Yellowjackets. I started Station Eleven after listening to Passan on your pod…pretty solid so far.

Kevin Goldstein: We are watching Archive 81 on Netflix (inconsistent, but flashes plus), and just started the very good (so far) Korean zombie series All Of Us Are Dead, also on Netflix.

Teddy: How hard is it for someone to transition into a competent-or-better defensive 1B? I’ve honestly always been a bit astounded by how good Yuli is at picking them

Kevin Goldstein: He’s so damn good over there, and it’s extremely hard.

Int: If you were trying to

Kevin Goldstein: I’m always trying to.

Kevin Goldstein: And with that, I gotta go drive north and east and go look at a house in the woods. i’ll be back next week and will go longer then. Thanks for all the great questions!