Kevin Goldstein Fangraphs Chat: 3/15/21

12:01
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Let’s get this going. I’m horrible at maintaining my personal schedule, so I have a radio hit in about 20 minutes, but I’ll answer some early and then stay awhile after I’m done. Hope everyone is enjoying all the great work here at FanGraphs and hopefully listening to Chin Music!

12:01
Jeremy: Despite the hype, it’d be completely absurd to expect Bobby Witt Jr. — a guy with only AZL experience under his belt? — to debut in 2021, right?

12:01
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s a bit heady, but I certainly don’t think it’s completely absurd. Let’s see how he looks once minor league games get going and re-assess. He’s really good.

12:02
Fate: While you worked with the stros, who was(is?) your favourite hitter who tore up the minor leagues but never got a real MLB chance?

12:02
Kevin Goldstein: For the most part, I think players get their chances if they earn them. Nobody really stands out.

12:02
Russ: Thoughts on Bielak/Garcia as depth since Framber’s status is still in question?

12:03
Kevin Goldstein: Worrisome. Bielak has always felt like a 4A pitcher to me. Garcia could be a decent backend starter, but I’m not sure 2021 is the time for that. Could be a bit.

12:03
Vince L.: KG, you’re uniquely qualified to answer this: If Gerrit Cole had been traded to the Yankees in the winter of 2017—as had been rumored—instead of the Astros, would he have been as dominant in 2018-19 as he was with Astros?

12:04
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know . . . . probably? The Astros are exceptionally good at identifying pitchers with potential performance improvements based on usage and location, and they’re also exceptionally good at implementing those changes. You know who else is really good at that? The New York Yankees.

12:04
Shawn miller: should I be selling torkelson for any offers at this point?  Bust?

12:04
Kevin Goldstein: Calm down. Deep breaths.

12:04
Hansen: What do we envision out of a healthy Corbin Martin, 150 innings of greatness?

12:05
Kevin Goldstein: I think the ceiling is a number three type. Good stuff across the board and command allows it to play up. Intense competitor.

12:05
KXW: I’m curious about your experience at the Trade Deadline in 2017 and the acquisition of Justin Verlander. How close was the race between the Astros and the Cubs?

12:06
Kevin Goldstein: Could be bad memory, but once we were past the trade deadline and entered the waiver one, it kind of felt like Astros or bust.

12:07
Brett: Chances Whitley ever pitches an inning in MLB at this point?

12:07
Kevin Goldstein: If you are setting an over/under at zero, I’ll take the over, but his chances of making an impact are slipping dramatically.

12:07
Ryan: JB Bukauskas has lit up ST as a reliever so far for AZ, do you think the team needs to keep him in relief and use him now or send him out to Reno (yikes) and stretch him out?

12:08
Kevin Goldstein: Always saw him as a potential pen arm and not surprised to see him thriving in that role. I think that’s where he should be.

12:08
Bren: The Mets generally aren’t in on top ranked international talent, with a few exceptions. Do you see this changing under Steve Cohen?

12:08
Kevin Goldstein: I mean . . . we’ll see? It’s one thing to just write checks down there, but you need to have a scouting and development infrastructure as well.

12:08
Tacoby Bellsbury: In the wake of the Mariners’ recent front office snafu, my wife asked me a question you may have great insight into: How much of a difference does it make in player development if foreign players do not have polished English, particularly in the minors? Is there anything exacerbated in more data-driven organizations?

12:09
Kevin Goldstein: Not if you hire Latin coaches or non-Latin ones who can communicate in Spanish!

12:09
Morton: Hey KG! Saw him on your picks to click, but assuming full health and return of stuff, what kind of starter could Jairo Solis be?

12:09
Kevin Goldstein: There’s No. 2 upside in there, but he’s barely pitched, so some patience is required.

12:09
Jacob: Hi Kevin, I am glad you have joined Fangraphs. I am wondering what it is like to work in baseball analytics for an organization. Are the long hours any better in that area of the organization? What kind of qualifications are common for those in analytics to have?

12:10
Kevin Goldstein: Certainly some long hours, but it can be manageable. Obviously, the travel aspect isn’t a piece here, and they’re not expected to come to/stay for every game.

12:10
Bilu: Hi Kevin – so glad to have you sharing your wit and insight with us. As their adversary for nearly a decade, what are your overall impressions of the A’s FO/scouting department?

12:11
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s abundantly clear at this point that the A’s are VERY good and what they do considering their pretty large limitations.

12:11
Chris W.: I’ve been dying to ask about your article on kelenics service time. Why didn’t you include george springer and the decisions that went into him missing free agency by 3 days? Is that something you can talk about?

12:12
Kevin Goldstein: Sure I can. I don’t like it, or like I wrote, I think something needs to be done with the rules to keep incentivizing teams to do it.

12:12
zurzles: How secretive are teams about their international signing connections? We know that the big prospects are connected to teams from a young age, and those connections typically come out eventually, but do analysts generally have an idea of who has a handshake agreement at age 13/14, or is that info kept under wraps until later?

12:13
Kevin Goldstein: Most secrets are not that. I would attend international showcases, and the scouts down there knew what team each player had already agree to sign with and for how much. They’re some of the worst kept secrets in baseball.

12:14
Tigers Fan: Do you think Luis Robert makes adjustments to off speed pitches this year and become an all-star?

12:14
Kevin Goldstein: I think the strikeouts are always going to be a problem, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be an All-Star.

12:14
fangraphs reader: When deciding to go over the limit in the old international rules, were there specific players (other than Moncada/Robert) that made teams decide the risk was worth it, or was it a group of players that teams figured that they could get a couple of?

12:15
Kevin Goldstein: Under the old rules, it made sense to go over the limit only if you were going to completely blow buy it, so it was more about signing tons of expensive players as opposed to just one or two.

12:15
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Was there ever any instance when you were in the FO where something in Spring Training ever influenced your decision making or thought processes on a player, or was it treated as 100% random noise?

12:16
Kevin Goldstein: I was treated as noise, but not 100% random. Performance is one thing, but things like velo gains or increased spin or exit velos are harder to ignore.

12:18
Kevin Goldstein: Taking a quick break for a radio hit in Chicago, but I’ll be back and will type furiously upon my return.

12:42
Kevin Goldstein: I’m back! Appreciate the patience. Let’s keep rolling. TONS OF QUESTIONS TO ANSWER.

12:42
Derek: Is there a FanGraphs NCAA tourney pool and if so who is the favorite? (to win the pool, not the tournament)

12:42
Kevin Goldstein: Not that I know of, and I have no idea. I have no idea who is even in the tourney, and I can’t name a single college basketball player.

12:43
WVU fan: Can you expand on your Alek Manoah love? What made him stand out in the 2019 draft to you?

12:43
Kevin Goldstein: Just pure power stuff and a body/delivery built to eat up innings. Plus fastball and 70 or better slider.

12:44
Kate: Eric seems pretty confident in Kjerstad’s hit tool, but others seem a little nervous about some of the mechanics.  What do you think?

12:44
Kevin Goldstein: #TeamEric

12:44
Larry: Do you think other scouts would say Kevin Goldstein knows what he’s looking at?

12:44
Kevin Goldstein: I like to think so.

12:44
Jon G: I haven’t listened to Bernstein since the B&B days! If you’re on regularly, guess I might have to turn 670 back on.

12:45
Kevin Goldstein: Happy to be back with Dan, and Rahimi is GREAT, but again sorry for the scheduling snafu.

12:45
Simon G: Thoughts on Victor Robles?  Nats front office still seems very high on him.  Can a tweak to his approach and a leaner physique put him back on track?  Or is he in danger of never reaching his ceiling as a 60 FV hitter?

12:46
Kevin Goldstein: I guess the best way to put it is that he’ll always be useful, yet frustrating.

12:46
Harry Lewis: Was there ever any doubt in the Astros system that Framber Valdez would reach his potential (i.e. not be able to maintain his control)?

12:46
Kevin Goldstein: Sure there was. There was an extended time where I thought he should be a reliever (whoops!)

12:47
matt: Would you consider working full time for a team again?

12:47
Kevin Goldstein: It would have to be REALLY right. In the present, I’m having a blast here and that’s where my focus is.

12:47
FanGraphs Member: KG – Welcome back! I’d like to ask you this famous question that is often asked in FG chats given your experience in an actual FO… How many hours a week do GMs actually work?

12:48
Kevin Goldstein: It ebbs and flows, but it’s a LOT. For example, during a homestand they’re coming into the office and a normal work time, staying for the game, meeting with the manager after the game and then going home, so home games are often a 14+ hour day.

12:49
Nick: Were you in the FO in 2018 when the Astros had a deal in place for Bryce Harper that Nats ownership scuttled? What were those discussions like?

12:49
Kevin Goldstein: It all came together pretty quick. I remember going back to the hotel late that night and calling my wife and telling her the team was getting Bryce Harper.

12:50
Jacob: Thoughts on the viability of tandem pitching in the majors?

12:50
Kevin Goldstein: I think you are going to see some this year. This year as going to be exceptionally weird in terms of pitching usage and I don’t think anyone is really accounting for it yet.

12:50
matt: If I ask you on March 15, 2022, which player you prefer going forward, what are the chances you choose Bobby Witt over Wander Franco?

12:50
Kevin Goldstein: 11.7429%

12:51
Raise Your ‘Stein: Thoughts on Adam Kloffenstein? Longenhagen appears to be down on his potential as he pitches to a lot of contact. When I see his measurables, the increase in velocity, the pedigree, the commentary by the managers who’ve faced him, and the organizational depth that will keep him from being rushed, I can’t help but think there’s something better than a 4/5 here.

12:52
Kevin Goldstein: I saw Kloffenstein twice in his draft year. First time he was remarkable, second time, not so much. Number 4/5 starters are exceptionally valuable, so don’t be greedy and that would actually be a good outcome.

12:52
Marcus: I’m curious how much your background in management consulting played into getting a job in the Astros front office, versus your baseball scouting / editorial experience? Semi-related, as many Astros executives departed for other senior leadership roles, including GM positions with other orgs, was that a path you could’ve seen yourself going down, or was becoming a General Manager not a likely trajectory, based on what you were working on with the Astros?

12:54
Kevin Goldstein: I worked five-plus years for a management consulting firm, but I wasn’t a management consultant. I worked in IT as a systems administrator, so I don’t think it played any role whatsoever. I don’t think I ever had GM potential. Not enough wide-ranging experience, no college degree (shouldn’t matter but it does), and just a tough sell on a PR level.

12:54
Sammy the dog: Regarding the Spanish: is it becoming more common that American players/coaches start to learn Spanish like Bregman did?

12:54
Kevin Goldstein: Yes it is. And it’s a good thing.

12:55
Jacques Pederson: Can you have power without bat speed?

12:55
Kevin Goldstein: Nope.

12:55
asnbrv: What do you think is the biggest contribution a good manager gives to a team that us people outside the doors can’t see?

12:55
Kevin Goldstein: One of the biggest thing a manager can do is get the best possible performance out of players. It’s soft science in terms of measuring that, but it’s real.

12:56
Erik: Are all of the major sabermetric stats (WAR, wRC+, wOBA, xFIP, etc.) directly used by teams, or have teams come up with slightly improved versions of most of them based on data the public can’t access?

12:56
Kevin Goldstein: “Improved” is debatable, but most teams have their own internal WAR-esque something above replacement number.

12:57
80 want: Would you have Hunter Brown higher or lower on a prospect list than Eric has him so far? I’m not trying to ask you for your own top 100, just trying to understand if you are adding gas to applying the breaks to Eric’s eval .Understand he may have his own sources all together but hopefully you understand what I’m trying to ask.

12:58
Kevin Goldstein: I think Brown has a chance to absolutely explode this year (in a good way) if he can hone his control and command. The stuff is absolutely electric.

12:58
Moose_Bolton: What are your favorite movies?

1:00
Kevin Goldstein: I feel like this is like asking what your favorite album is. I could answer, but my answer would probably be different next week. I think consistent films on my list would include Apocalypse Now, Barton Fink, Repo Man, and The Battle For Algiers.

1:00
45 blows billygoats: As an “industry” member, what Podcasts are still, can’t miss, for you?

1:00
Kevin Goldstein: I use podcasts to get away from baseball, so I listen to mostly political and video game stuff, actually.

1:01
Mike: Sonny Gray is sidelined with a back issue, after having another back issue at the end of 2020. How much concern do you suspect is merited there?

1:02
Kevin Goldstein: Considerable. Back issues are bad in that (as shown clearly here) there tends to be a recurrence of them.

1:02
Misch: Taylor Jones.  Next Jon Singleton / Tyler White quad-A guy who doesn’t translate in the bigs?

1:02
Kevin Goldstein: Sounds right.

1:03
PT: Pirates need to hit at 1.1.  It seems like it is coming down to Rocker v Leiter, who do you have and why?

1:04
Kevin Goldstein: Is it crappy to say I haven’t decided yet? Forced to make that decision right now, I’d go Rocker. But I reserve the right to think differently in July.

1:04
asnbrv: If you could magically build a prospect with one 80 grade tool and 45 everywhere else, would you put the 80 on hit?

1:05
Kevin Goldstein: Fun question. My first reaction was absolutely and I still think that, but a 45 bat with 80 pop is pretty enticing. Do you want .320 with 14 HR or .250 with 40?

1:05
matt: What skills and personality types are underappreciated in front offices right now? Have front offices tilted too far to the smart young (male) quant type?

1:06
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know if there are underappreicated types as much as their is an underappreciated for diversity of thoughts/backgrounds. There’s a bit of a monoculture at times that inhibits good decision making.

1:07
Alvin & The Chipmonks Avila: Too early to give up on Casey Mize? Do you like him or Skubal more and why?

1:07
Kevin Goldstein: Yes, and slight advantage to Mize. Tigers prospect list up this week and the first I’m co-working on with Eric!

1:07
SJ: Mainly political podcasts? Matt Christman go on Chin Music.

1:07
Kevin Goldstein: I would LOVE that.

1:08
Sammy the dog: Should MLB try to get more fans in Europe? If so, what should be done to make baseball more popular across the Atlantic?

1:08
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s just not going to happen. Between the time zone differences and the popularity of other sports, it’s just a waste of time.

1:09
Shawn miller: what is stopping tejay antone from becoming a 200 k mid 3s era fantasy darling?

1:09
Kevin Goldstein: He’s a very good breakout candidate for 2021, but this feels a bit aggressive.

1:11
Erik: What is the approximate WAR of the league’s best managers? What about best pitching/hitting coaches? Do teams attempt to measure that sort of thing or is a non-analytical approach perfectly fine for assessing coaches?

1:11
Kevin Goldstein: I’m fine with a non-analytical approach. I think the WAR for an overall major league stuff (manager and coaches) can be as high as 8-10.

1:11
Tylor: Should spring training be changing my view on Bobby Witt Jr? Previously I thought he was a tad overrated and the contact issues were scary. Now he looks like he’s at least ready for high minors. Plus given no Minor league last year, spring training is considerable part of his post-draft competitive ball. I’m torn

1:12
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think this spring should be changing your view as much as you should have entered the spring thinking this guy might be REALLY good.

1:13
Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

1:14
Kevin Goldstein: Is there a great Matt Damon movie? I mean, The Departed is good, but not even top ten for Scorsese. The Talented Mr. Ripley is good. Great Damon film? Don’t see one.

1:14
grover: It always feels like Atlanta has an edge when it comes to finding Georgia prepsters. Do teams put an emphasis on Home region coverage when scouting amateur talent?

1:15
Kevin Goldstein: The do when it matters. I don’t think Cleveland gains any great advantage by really being on top of the Northern Ohio scene.

1:15
BringBackDeSpanielHair: Bourne Identity? Great Matt Damon movie, right?

1:15
Kevin Goldstein: No.

1:15
Appa Yip Yip: Do people in front offices ever acknowledge the role luck plays in a successful rebuild? I know these dudes are all hyper process oriented, but for instance in Houston they hit on Springer, Correa, and Bregman in a way that can’t just be explained by having a good process, there’s luck in having three draft picks become legit superstar calibre players (kudos to the players for working that hard obvs), and the same with Altuve signing for 20k and becoming an MVP.

1:16
Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely they do. No team wins a world series without some dice rolls going their way.

1:16
Lee: True Grit is a great movie and Damon is great in it.

1:16
Kevin Goldstein: Nope.

1:16
Misch: Could Josh Rojas have bb%>k% in the majors?

1:17
Kevin Goldstein: No. He’s off to a great start this spring, but also striking out a LOT. I think he’ll be a good utility player in the end.

1:17
matt: Good Will Hunting?

1:18
Kevin Goldstein: Manipulative overwrought garbage.

1:18
Greg: Interstellar

1:18
Kevin Goldstein: No.

1:18
BringBackDeSpanielHair: Your movie evaluation tool is a 20

1:18
Kevin Goldstein: Maybe.

1:18
AC/SD: Saving Private Ryan.

1:19
Kevin Goldstein: Jaws is the only great Spielberg movie. He’s not in that.

1:21
Lee: Have to agree, you rate a 20 in evaluating movies. Now you are dissing the Coen brothers and Spielberg (besides Matt Damon).

1:21
Kevin Goldstein: I adore the Coen Brothers, just not a True Grit person. Burn After Reading EASILY their most underrated work.

1:21
BringBackDeSpanielHair: Do you think Kluber can recover his Cy Young form? Injuries the last couple years felt flukey.

1:22
Kevin Goldstein: Guys who stay healthy tend to stay healthy and guys who get hurt tend to get hurt again. I think expecting a Cy Young type of performance is silly, but he might be good, just not for 32 starts and 200 innings.

1:23
Appa Yip Yip: Is still do Brad Pitt’s little hand dance from Burn After Reading sometimes.

1:23
Kevin Goldstein: I say this in all seriousness, Burn After Reading is one of Brad Pitt’s best performances.

1:23
Tigers Fan: Your thoughts on Kyle Tucker?  All-star this year?

1:24
Kevin Goldstein: It’s possible. I think he’ll be good but might still be a couple of years away from All-Star good.

1:24
Jake: If Brendan Rodgers was the first pick of the 2015 draft, would the Astros still have taken Bregman? Or would they have taken Swanson?

1:24
Kevin Goldstein: Would have been a fun conversation, but I think the room still leaned Bregman.

1:25
Erik: How many teams will use a true, dedicated closer in 10 years?

1:25
Kevin Goldstein: I understand where you are going with it. My answer is fewer than do now, but I’d bet more than half still have a dedicated ninth inning person.

1:27
Kevin: You sir are no longer worthy of the name Kevin if you dont like Saving Private Ryan or Jurassic Park

1:27
Kevin Goldstein: Call me . . . Ishmael.

1:27
Dave: Why is MLB using the minors to experiment when we already know what they need to do to speed up games – what they did a few years ago – make batters stay in the box.

1:28
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s easier to get union approval on rule changes if MLB can experiment in the minors first and work out the issues and then go to the union with a real plan that has data and experience behind it.

1:28
Laak: You strike me as a guy who appreciated Rounders.  No?

1:29
Kevin Goldstein: Good, but again, not great.

1:29
Kevin: Do you ever have professional regrets about player recommendations/evaluations that did not pan out? Or is it just part of the business

1:29
Kevin Goldstein: Both. Like most, I spent more time thinking about mistakes (the Brewers trade) than successes.

1:31
Joseph: If a healthy Gallo plays near all-star level to the deadline. What kind of haul could be expected?

1:31
Kevin Goldstein: It would be considerable as the acquiring team would have Gallo for 2022 as well.

1:31
bosoxforlife: Is the idea of limiting a pitcher to 2 pickoff attempts the most foolish idea ever? Will they just wave the runner to 2nd after the second pickoff?

1:32
Kevin Goldstein: Nope. You can still pickoff again, but on the third throw, he’s either out (successful pickoff) or it’s a balk.

1:32
matt: When will the DH permanently arrive in the NL?

1:32
Kevin Goldstein: I’m guessing 2022 with the next CBA.

1:32
Dave: Are you expecting major changes to the CBA?

1:33
Kevin Goldstein: Numerous and significant. It’s going to be a landmark CBA.

1:33
Erik: In a given year, is almost literally every player at least mentioned in trade talks at some point or are some truly untouchable? I.e., are there teams out there right now checking on the price of Tatis and Soto just in case or is doing so considered rude and a waste of everybody’s time?

1:34
Kevin Goldstein: It’s just a waste of time. Teams calls each other all the time to check in on potential needs/wants but for players like that, you’re not going to ask unless the team somehow brings them up.

1:34
matt: Will minor leaguers ever unionize or otherwise somehow gain a say in CBA negotiations? Or will major leaguers always throw them under the bus in to get a better deal for themselves?

1:34
Kevin Goldstein: A. Hope so. B. Probably.

1:34
Dave: Landmark CBAs in the past have required landmark workstoppages.  Are you also expecting that?

1:35
Kevin Goldstein: I think chances are 50/50. Chances are more than 95% that the season ends without a new CBA.

1:35
Dallas Comegys: Very late to this but David Roth bringing up Harambi was the stuff I waited years to hear again. Thanks.

1:35
Kevin Goldstein: I can’t tell you how thrilled I was to have Roth co-host episode one. Hope to have him back down the road.

1:36
Dave: You people have already ruined nearly every baseball league in existence with the abominable DH.  Can’t you just leave the NL alone?

1:36
Kevin Goldstein: I like the DH. Certainly more than most Matt Damon movies.

1:37
Adam: Lifelong astros fan here. My heart was broken when news of the cheating came out. Should I forgive them? Also what is your favorite Naked Raygun album?

1:38
Kevin Goldstein: You should be angry about it, but forgiveness is up to you. Never forgiving them is reasonable, as is letting it go. You get to define your fandom on your terms. Also Throb Throb is the best Naked Raygun album.

1:38
Sadman: Kevin, I’m at work and my back hurts. Any tips?

1:40
Kevin Goldstein: There is no Matt Damon film that is going to help, I can say that much. Thanks everyone for coming to the chat. I’d keep going, but I gotta clear space for the great Ben Clemens.





Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.

12 Comments
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Original Greaser Bob
3 years ago

Lee: True Grit is a great movie and Damon is great in it.

Kevin Goldstein: Nope.

————————————————————————————————————————
Found the Fast & Furious fan.

Maggie25
3 years ago

Ok, I vehemently disagree with Kevin’s opinions on Matt Damon, True Grit, and Steven Spielberg, but I am also prepared to go to bat for Fast and the Furious (especially 4-6).