Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 5/10/2021

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everybody, it’s Monday. There’s baseball, there’s minor league baseball, and the May sumo tournament began with all four ozeki winning their first match yesterday. Let’s chat!

Kiko: Do the Brewers have something in Tyrone Taylor, or is it just a SSS hot start?

Kevin Goldstein: I think there’s a real bat in there. I don’t think it’s a 132 wRC+, but it’s a big league bat.

ben: if you worked at mlb, how would you solve the rising K problems and other on-field issues in the game?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t have an answer. I don’t like the current proposals, and while I’d like to see it change organically, I do think we’re on a path of this continuing and five years from now, we’ll be looking at 15+ K/9. I think on a PR level (different subject) baseball would be best served by not having broadcasters spend three hours bitching about baseball every time you tune into a game.

Big Fan: It’s really early, but is there anything you can say about how prospect development was impacted for those who were at their Alt Sites last year vs those who weren’t?

Kevin Goldstein: It was definitely impacted, but how much is going to be hard to measure for really a few years, and there will never be a blanket statement to be made because how it impacted each player will be different.

John: Let’s talk Matt Manning and the magic that he will deliver this year. Tiger’s have to call him up in May right? They need any excitement they can give their fans, plus he’s ready.

Kevin Goldstein: Dude gave up three home runs in his first AAA start, and he’s ready? Calm down.

Brian: From your time with Houston, what would you say you felt the organization did best in regards to scouting/drafting, and what was an area that needed improvement?

Kevin Goldstein: Evaluating pitcher’s raw stuff via data and video; evaluating pitcher’s command via data and video.

Concerned: Worried about Luciano and/or Torkelson yet? K train has kept on chugging for both from spring into early-season action

Kevin Goldstein: Not a ton. Calm down.

Frank: How much does Jairo Solis’s injury scare you off from him, at least in terms of becoming a good SP?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean . . . if you are going to develop, you need to pitch. It’s just so much time lost. Yes, I’m concerned.

Jack: Luis Medina NYY looks good so far. When do you anticipate him being promoted to AA?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s two starts, his stuff has been very good, his command is still shaky. Calm down.

George: Do teams care about minor league wins and losses? I know they talk about creating a “winning culture” but if the focus is development how do they balance the two?

Kevin Goldstein: Player development comes first, second and third. Winning is fourth. If you are trying to develop a guy to hit leadoff and he’s hitting .222/.287/.341, he’s going to keep hitting leadoff. You don’t bench guys to win.

SpikesFan: Any idea when the MLB Draft League rosters will be announced? Games start on the 24th, seems like it should be soon. Any plans to watch these games?

Kevin Goldstein: We’ll keep an eye on it, but it’s looking right now like it will be a league for potential day three guys.

Sharp: Is there any truth at all to the old mindset that the “last three outs are the hardest to get” and some guys simply don’t have what it takes to close a ballgame?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely.

Guest: What’s the biggest misconception people outside the industry have re: pro scouting?

Kevin Goldstein: That it’s a bunch of old guys sitting around chewing tobacco and talking about players’ girlfriends. I’m not saying those folks don’t exist, but they’re a very small minority.

Guest: What are your thoughts on video scouting vs. in-person looks for scouting both minor league and collegiate prospects?

Kevin Goldstein: I think you can delivery a very good evaluation if the video and data is good enough. An evaluation that helps with decision making. You also still should have someone(s) see the player in person.

Erik: Baseball video games typically have a “stamina” metric for pitchers that marks how deep they can pitch in a game. Is that at all reflective of reality? A pitcher’s role seems to depend mostly on their control and how many pitches they have. Do guys have any inherent “stamina” or can pretty much any pitcher build up to 100 pitches given enough time?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m sure it’s far from perfect. 100 pitches don’t exist in a vacuum. Stress pitching have to be counted. 100 pitches over five innings is far more stressful than 100 over nine.

KB: Am I correct that manager’s job astronomically more difficult than some fans think it is? Managing a pitching staff, making decisions to put players in the best position to succeed. Plus the job of managing a large group of people: coaching staff and players. Motivating everyone and keeping the morale as high as possible. On top of that, you’re literally the spokesperson for the team. After the game you’re the one getting interviewed having to answer questions about the game.

Kevin Goldstein: You are absolutely correct. The manager job is incredibly more difficult and impactful than many think it is.

Cody Christie: Is there any hope for the Twins this year?

Kevin Goldstein: They have to play .600 ball the rest of the way just to win 90. So they’ve definitely dug themselves a sizeable hole.

Justin: Do you think Richard Rodriguez is good enough to bring back a good prospect in a deadline deal?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re going to find out! Depends on how you define good. They’re not going to get into a Top 100 or anything.

Joey: Sam Bachman… more likely to be a reliever or starter in your mind?

Kevin Goldstein: I would set the odds at 80/20 reliever, but I’m sure he’ll likely get sent out as a starter. Also, over the next decade there’s a chance we are re-asking the question of what’s a starter? Maybe it’s someone you just expect 9-15 outs from for the most part . . . .

Defenestrater: How in the world does Yasmani Grandal have a slash line of .113/.378/.242?!?!

Kevin Goldstein: .119 BABIP carrying a lot of water.

Jeb: What are your thoughts on Nick Gonzalez? What is his ultimate upside?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s a plus or better hit tool. Not a ton of power, but sneaky pop. Think he’ll settle in as a good hit-first 2B.

Ted: Is Lawler the pick at 1:1 if the draft were today?

Kevin Goldstein: I’d go there if a did a mock today. It wouldn’t be with a ton of confidence.

Kate: How long do you think Hassell needs to rake at Low-A before the Pads bump him up?

Kevin Goldstein: More than six games. Calm Down.

marmstrong: Did you get to see Appel’s latest appearance? Anything to get excited about (other than it happened)?

Kevin Goldstein: Saw a bit of it. Was in the low 90s and then slipped to upper 80s by the end. It would be a fun as hell story, but I’m not especially optimistic.

SJ: Adolis Garcia’s real life trade value is up ___% since the start of the season

Kevin Goldstein: He’s not a free agent until 2027, why are you worried about his trade value?

Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: is Aaron Judge broken?

Kevin Goldstein: Calm down.

Dan: Is there any chance at all that Yordan Alvarez can split time at 1B and DH in a given year? What about, say, 20% of his starts at 1B? IF (big if) he gets through this season with his knees intact, do you think it’s something HOU would entertain? Are the reports on his defense really that bad? Thanks!

Kevin Goldstein: I’d just let him DH. Not a good defender, and need to keep him in the lineup.

Erik: Who would win and who would lose if the MLB allowed teams to trade draft picks? I’m not seeing an obvious downside for any particular party, so it’s a bit odd that it’s the one major league that doesn’t allow it.

Kevin Goldstein: Nobody would lose. I’ve always been a proponent of allowing for trades of day 1 and 2 picks, so through the first ten rounds.

Kate: How much pop are you expecting from Pete Crow?  Eric seems to be fairly conservative on this, but I see other outlets throwing around some pretty gaudy comps that include average to above power.

Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s going to be average.

CardsOps: A few weeks ago I probed you on the Cardinals’ inconsistencies. But, as they hold an MLB-best 13-4 record over the last 17 games, has your opinion changed. Are the Cardinals legit?

Kevin Goldstein: Any moderately good team is a legit threat in that division.

Charley: Gausman and means look to be legitimately breaking out… Ace level? Or more high end #2

Kevin Goldstein: More of a 2, but he’s been great. Will be fascinating to see how the Giants deal with his impending FA.

KC BBQ: Has Taylor Trammel punched his ticket to the minors when Kelenic comes up?

Kevin Goldstein: Probably. The Ks are just too much to overcome right now.

Pegboy: Longtime fan (former subscriber to your prospects newsletter) and even more stoked hearing your musical tastes extend to the Chicago punk era of the 80s! Are you feeling any better about Jud Fabian’s chances to go higher in the draft?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes. but more mid to late first than super early.

Dave: If you’re “creating” both a pitcher and a hitter by assigning tools, and for each can assign one 80, one 20, and the rest 40s, how would you create them?

Kevin Goldstein: Fun questions. If I made a 1B with 80 hit, 20 run, 40 power, I’d have a below avg defender hitting .320 with 13 HR. Could be pretty good, no?

Kate: So Baddoo had a fast start, pitchers have adjusted.  Odds he adjusts back enough to be a starting caliber OF?

Kevin Goldstein: Fourth OF.

CardsOps: Is Yusei Kikuchi an underrated arm for this offseason?

Kevin Goldstein: Yup.

Kate: Loving what I’m seeing from Luis Garcia (HOU arm), but he’s going to lose his rotation spot soon (assuming no other injuries), isn’t he?

Kevin Goldstein: Not necessarily . . .

Erik: A proposal to solve the problem of pitchers being too good: Expand the league significantly, but shrink the rosters slightly. Water down the pitcher pool and force pitchers to back off slightly since they’re each responsible for more innings. Is that remotely feasible and would it have the desired effect?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s not feasible at all and won’t be for a while. Owners are obsesses with revenue and expansion dilutes their share percentages.

Jacques Pederson: With many of the lower level leagues and teams getting contracted, how will early development change? Are teams going to run larger complexes?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, they already are. Joe Sheehan and I talked about this on last week’s podcast.

Zamzow: Buying cole Irvin can be a nice backend guy like a mark buehrle type?

Kevin Goldstein: Hate the comp, but absolutely buying as a nice back end starter.

Kevin: C.J Abrams!!! Do the Padres pull the trigger and bring him up. Their bats have been down and he could spark some offense come May or June? Or is that just an unrealistic hopeful thinking?

Kevin Goldstein: Calm down.

Thank you for the chat!: Where do you think organizational biases tend to fall in terms of player development intersected with national origins?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh boy. That’s for a much larger arena than a chat.

Rays Fan: I was surprised that Hieberto Hernandez wasnt assigned to a higher level, were you and do you have any thoughts.?

Kevin Goldstein: Felt right to me.

Thank you for the chat!: Have you considered writing a series on how professional organizations are run top to bottom? Org structures, roles and responsibilities, operations (e.g. stadiums), minor league affiliations, scouting process…this would be incredibly interesting! (and maybe you could repackage as a book when complete)

Kevin Goldstein: I have not, but if there’s interest, I would….

CL: Prep Pitchers at the top of the draft rarely work out compared to other player categories. Why?

Kevin Goldstein: Time to develop, injuries.

KellyLeak: With four games in Colorado is this the week Eugenio Suarez  gets it going?

Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea how anyone could look you in the eye and answer a question about how any player will perform in the next four games with any confidence.

Keefths: When does Alek Manoah get called up ? Does Pearson need to suck first ?

Kevin Goldstein: He was great in his first start. Also, calm down.

John: This is the Rockies’ 29th season and they have yet to win their five team division even once.  Do you think they will win their division at least once in the next 29 seasons?

Kevin Goldstein: Odds are in my favor, no?

Fish Fan: Thoughts on Kameron Misner?

Kevin Goldstein: Very big, very strong, very athletic player. I worry he’s a bit of a power goof.

Tristan: The Rays are going to keep doing Rays things. But how do you see McClanahan developing? Maybe a version of Snell (SP who goes 5,6 IP)? Maybe a version of Hader (max-effort 2IP fireman)? Or… a guy to use exactly as they are now?

Kevin Goldstein: Trying to predict how the Rays will behave is a fool’s errand.

KC BBQ: Concerned that Lynn hasn’t been allowed to throw more than 70 pitches since he’s come off the IL? Wondering if he’s still dealing with the issues that put him on the IL. The 6 walks and only 8 Ks in the 10 innings since returning are not like him.

Kevin Goldstein: He threw 90 last time out and get pulled in a blowout. I don’t see an issue.

Guest: For a top prospect like Francisco Alvarez, who has put up a ridiculous .529/.667/.882 line through his first 6 games/27 PA for the Mets low A team in his first time in full-season ball, how much more of a sample size would a team be looking for before bumping him up a level?

Kevin Goldstein: Way more than six games. More like six weeks. Calm down.

Wesley: Do obvious sellers have any incentive to go early this season? Starters are dropping everywhere – could COL or DET get more to move guys like Gray/Marquez or Boyd/Fulmer now?

Kevin Goldstein: I think they SHOULD. What’s more valuable — two months of a player or 4-5 months? The answer is obvious, but you do need a market to create value.

JC: If a guy has the highest probable outcome for a tool to be either a 70 or 30 do you give him a 50? Or do you pick 30 or 70?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, isn’t that most players? You predict most likely, and you accept that players can surprise or disappoint, often in dramatic fashion.

Erik: What are your expectations for rookie Wander Franco?

Kevin Goldstein: That he will be pretty damn good right away.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: I was a little surprised to see you call Victor Robles a 4th outfielder.  Still so young, two years removed from a 17 hr/28 sb season with above average defense in center.  Any particular reason you thinking about moving on from him?

Kevin Goldstein: Even that year, he had a 92 wRC+ and he’s declined since. Just not enough offense. It’s not a complicated analysis.

Tony Plush: Thanks for the chat, Kevin. Anything to say about poor Daniel Lynch? Even if he was tipping pitches, that was … disheartening

Kevin Goldstein: Major League Baseball is unbelievably hard. I don’t think people realize how good these folks are.

Kevin Platinumstein: Last week you mentioned how important the psychological aspect of the game is for players. How intrusive do you think teams should be allowed to be when it comes to a players mental health? For example, I’m bipolar, and if I had to perform in front of 30,000 people, I’d definitely pull some Kanye stunt once or twice in my career.  But I’m not telling my employer that info.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s a real question and a fair one and ‘intrusive’ is what’s kind of locking me up here. I think it would be in the player’s best interest to let the team know of his bi-polar situation, at least.

Erik: Imagine a team cracked the code regarding serious pitcher injuries and was able to reduce procedures like Tommy John by a very significant amount. Is there any tacit understanding between teams that such knowledge would be shared for the good of everyone in the game, or would that be one of the closest guarded secrets one could possibly imagine?

Kevin Goldstein: Likely the latter. Sorry.

Tal: Do you believe command can be trained using overweight/underweight balls, a la Driveline’s differential command program?

Kevin Goldstein: I think Driveline does incredible things in terms of adding velocity and movement to pitches, but the command stuff is still TBD.

Tal: How does international scouting differ from high school/college scouting in terms of how you watch and what tools you’re looking for?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s so different because you are looking at 14-15 year olds and predicting what they will look like in a DECADE. Tons of other factors as well, and this was also discussed on last week’s podcast. You should listen to the podcast! I think you’d enjoy it! That goes for all of you!

Sammy So-so: I’m fascinated by Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s career. Did
you ever see him becoming this type of player?

Kevin Goldstein: Nope, and hats off to him.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Luis Castillo – has anyone come up with any reasonable explanation for his underperformance so far?  He’s started slow before but this is something else, no?

Kevin Goldstein: Stuff is way down. It’s a concern.

DF: Reds’ bullpen has been pretty awful. Would you support giving Lodolo and/or Greene innings there this year if they look ready?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. Calm down.

Kretin: Do you think Ohtani’s control will improve and lower his walk rate, or is this who he is?

Kevin Goldstein: I think it will improve, but it’s always going to be loose command.

Ben: How much do most teams weigh off the field stuff (excluding medical and legal concerns) such as how a player carries themself throughout a game, how much their other teammates like them, etc when scouting guys they might draft in the first or second round?

Kevin Goldstein: Depends on the team, really. It’s never a zero.

Tal: How big is the gap between how well teams know their own players and how well other teams know them? Both tendency and producion wise

Kevin Goldstein: The better the gap, the better the organization. It is of utmost important to know your own players WAY better than the rest of the league.

Brad Lipton: Do you think either Dalbec or E. White get sent to AAA soon to find their stroke (now that AAA is open)?

Kevin Goldstein: I think they SHOULD. The contract might create weird pressures on Seattle, however.

ralph: Assuming an average bullpen that isn’t exhausted, when do you think it makes sense to leave in a #3 starter for the third time through the order?

Kevin Goldstein: I think that’s a very game-specific question. Not a fan of blanket strategies.

Jon: Anything to Rutschman’s K rate? And chances of him coming up before July 4th with Severino and Sisco playing like minor leaguers?

Kevin Goldstein: Calm down.

Lee Bum-Ho: I’m sad this is even a question (maybe it’s not?), but who do you think has impressed a stronger influence on the game of baseball as it exists today? Scott Boras, or Babe Ruth?

Kevin Goldstein: Boras. Not even close. It should be clear that I like and respect Scott.

Hingle McCringleberry: Speaking of managing decisions — how much goes into putting together a lineup other than what would be the “ideal” projected lineup based on projected stats?  How much has to do with maintaining consistency, or wanting a player hitting where he feels most comfortable, or individual issues like how good the matchup is?  And do you think those “soft” factors are over or under (or correctly) weighted, generally speaking?

Kevin Goldstein: A. I don’t think batting orders matter very much. B. I think these soft factors you mentioned are highly under-weight by most fans.

Daniel: Kevin, any early buzz regarding Francisco Alvarez? Early stat line is bonkers. Thoughts on his defense?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, he begin the year as our No. 1 prospect in the Mets system. That’s buzz, no?  Defense is good. Dude is a stud.

David: Who is more likely to/ take another AB in their career, Albert Pujols or Chris Davis?

Kevin Goldstein: Fun question. I can’t wrap my head around the % chances of Albert playing again. Is anyone going to give him the fulltime job he wants? I don’t see it, but should be bench jobs (like the one he walked from) available.

Kate: Given the lack of a 2020 MiLB season, do we need to be more open to buying into small sample breakouts than normal?  Have to assume there have been some fairly major changes since we last saw these guys in real games, right?

Kevin Goldstein: For sure there are, but if you are looking for them after five or six games, you are lining yourself up for all sorts of mistakes.

Andrew: Could you elaborate a bit on your answer above re: the “ninth inning is different” being true? How have you come to that conclusion, and what do you think is the issue with pitchers who can’t succeed in the ninth?

Kevin Goldstein: Getting the last three outs of a game comes with incredible pressure. People respond to pressure differently. To think everyone would perform in the ninth as they would in other innings is silly. Players are humans with brains, they are not Strat-o-matic cards or OOTP hash tables.

The Ghosts of Siskel and Ebert: We discussed this and have agreed to give your taste in cinema a resounding two thumbs down.

Kevin Goldstein: I bet Ebert would really like my taste in cinema.

Not your Padre’s Padres: With Tatis, Cronenworth, and Grisham locking up the middle for SD, where would Abrams fit in?

Kevin Goldstein: Calm down.

onyeabor: Great movies: Heathers or Magnolia?

Kevin Goldstein: Heathers is good, Magnolia is great.

Scott K: Would Pujols still be an Angel today if he kept quiet about his benching, or was the DFA happening then regardless?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, he’d still be an Angel. My belief is that he said he’d like to be released if he wasn’t going to play every day and the club granted that request.

45 blows billygoats: ETA on the return of Huira?

Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea how anyone could answer this.

Johndarc: How are you handling the Giant Bomb news?

Kevin Goldstein: Really heartbroken. I only listened regularly to two video game podcast and both came from them….

Guest: You prefer a 4 to 5 IP starter who has a high Ks % or a 6+ guy who pitches to contact?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ll take the better pitcher? Who gets the most outs? Who is more effective?

Mike: Kevin, I watched a John Baker start with you at NIU a couple years ago. In your write up I’m a little disappointed you didn’t call his curveball a schloop de doop. That was a fun day. I hope all is well.

Kevin Goldstein: All is great. I’m certainly rooting for him. He’s fun to watch.

Kevin: Alright, I am not discouraged from last week. I shall attempt once again to pin you down. Movies top 100, yes or no: Silence of the Lambs, A Beautiful Mind, Platoon, Black Swan, The Revenant, Mad Max Fury Road, The Color Purple,

Kevin Goldstein: None of those would be on my Top 100.

Keith: What is the best stat for evaluating approach in the MLB? Baseball savant’s swing / take? Anecdotally it seems very challenging for terrible approach guys to last in the majors: Hiura, rosario etc

Kevin Goldstein: I look at a lot of things, but the first think I look at is in-zone/out-zone swing rates.

Tal: Kendall Graveman: legit?

Kevin Goldstein: Legit.

Terunofuji: how do you like my chances in this month’s tournament?

Kevin Goldstein: Looked good in match No. 1 this weekend!

Nils: I know the answer to anyone wanting a reaction to any minor league performances so far (good or bad) is just SSS.  But has there been anything learned from the handful of minor league games so far that actually has made you reconsider a prospect?

Kevin Goldstein: No. It’s six friggin games, folks. Calm down.

Ivory hunter: Which prospects are you most looking forward to seeing when rookie ball leagues start up?

Kevin Goldstein: Jasson Dominguez is kinda the obvious answer here.

Feddy: What do we think about Duran, if hes called up will he immediately be better then the current red sox outfielders, or will it take time

Kevin Goldstein: He still needs to tweak his approach.

Nic: Is Stanton for real right now? We haven’t seen this guy since 2017.

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, he was crazy cold and now he’s crazy hot and the truth is somewhere in between. Season OPS is .914 and that feels about right, no?

Kevin: Its hard to believe, but we are still only around 100 ABs for players so far this season. So do you feel this is enough of a sample size for the Brewers to send down Hiura?

Kevin Goldstein: I do. He was a mess.

Mets fan: Thinking about Francisco Alvarez next year- if a catching prospect’s bat is ready for the majors, but he isn’t there defensively yet. What do you do?

Kevin Goldstein: Keep him in the minors. Personal bias: No below average defenders at SS or C.

JayJay: Would Alek Manoah making his MLB debut in 2021 (as a SP) be too aggressive?

Kevin Goldstein: Depends on how he pitches from here. I don’t think it’s out of the question, certainly.

Tal: Do you feel that batted ball profile based similarity scores on Baseball Savant have any merit? If so, are they more viable for pitchers or hitters?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re fun, but they’re not something I utilize in evaluations.

nvita: Do you know if organizations utilize sweet spot % for evaluating players? It seems through my research to have a solid correlation with the players OPS

Kevin Goldstein: This or something analogous to this is used by teams.

Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: Any hope for Freudis Nova at this point? Seems like his body has moved him to a corner infield spot, and I dunno if he has the bat for that.

Kevin Goldstein: He has the bat for it, but it’s not going to do him any good if he continues to swing at every pitch he sees. So far so good this year in that regard, but no conclusion after just four games.

Sal: This charade with the M’s and Kelenic needs to stop, right?  They have a large hole in LF and need his bat in the lineup.  Everyone knows they are just covering their service time manipulation, but isn’t it unfair to the players and fans that want to win?

Kevin Goldstein: The rules need to change, period. Teams need to be incentivized to put their best product on the field.

Bill G: Setting aside the financial ramifications, is there enough talent in baseball to support expansion to 32 teams in your opinion.  Thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: Stared at this one for a few minutes, and I’m not convinced either way.

Astros Fan: My team cheated. I own that, I understand that. I personally don’t feel bad for the Altuves and Bregmans getting booed (when it stops at being booed). Do you feel its hypocrisy that Yankee fans are doing the yelling when they have been hit several times with cheating this past decade. Or do you feel like people have forgotten what the Cardinals did?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t see anything productive by deflecting to other teams.

Nigel Wilson fan: What do you think of Jazz Chisholm’s start before his injury? Swing and miss is obvious, but I feel like he can grind out an at-bat and not chase.

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, he really impressed. I still have concerns about the Ks, but you’re right about the plate discipline so far. Hope he’s back soon.

TT: I know you’re not a big Keibert Ruiz fan, but isn’t it about time we “free Keibert Ruiz!” ?

Kevin Goldstein: To what end? To sit on the bench and watch Will Smith?

Ben: If the O’s think Henry Davis is the best player available, they don’t worry about also having Rutschman, right?

Kevin Goldstein: Right.

Corn Fiend: Do free agents make signing decisions based on teams’ home city more than the public hears about? For me, that would be one of the most important factors, and I’d want my agent to know I’d gladly take 10% less pay to work in San Diego over Arlington (even with the massive difference in cost of living). Would my agent get less commission if I chose to take a 10-15% less valuable contract?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, the agent would. Commisions are X% of salary. There are players who do this, but the union pushes players HARD to take the most money for the good of all other players. State taxes also play a role that is underappreciated.

Matt Damon: What would you say Triston Casas’ ceiling is?

Kevin Goldstein: Above-average offensive 1B. Big fan.

Harold: Kevin – How does Oakland keeping finding players like Cole Irvin and Birch Smith? Is it a matter of necessity (budget restraints), data and research, blind luck, or all of the above?

Kevin Goldstein: Oakland is incredibly good at what they do.

Kevbot034: I notice your answer to most prospect questions is “calm down.” Is that a pretty regular answer from your time with Astros, too? Do in-house guys buy into SSS hype trains?

Kevin Goldstein: I think clubs are pretty calm after less than a week of games.

Sean L.: I can’t recall if it was mentioned in your chat or another writer’s last week, if so thanks for the Midnight Diner mention.  I can’t stop watching it.  It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen.  How would you describe it to someone to get them to check it out?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s so wonderful. It’s tales of people in Tokyo presented with charm and empathy and the whole thing is just so damn wonderful.

Toy Cannon: As a former Astros exec, did you laugh at Luis Santana’s bat flip?

Kevin Goldstein: I enjoyed it immensely. Hope he starts hitting again.

Dalton Wilcox: Any thoughts on Cubs RHSP prospect Jensen?

Kevin Goldstein: Really really good stuff, 40 command, should be an effective, if at times frustrating reliever.

Toy Cannon: Because you were somewhat involved, do you enjoy watching a pitcher like Hunter Brown develop from afar?

Kevin Goldstein: Of course. Hard not to have some emotion for players you saw in person and reported on before they were drafted.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: magnolia?  huh.  where does it rank on PTA movies?

Kevin Goldstein: Fun question. Boogie Nights is his best, and easily top ten all-time films for me.

Kevin: Did you care about the Chinese rocket falling back to earth (for the love of god please say no)… West Wing did an episode on this in 1999 and we still make a big deal about these things 20 years later

Kevin Goldstein: I

Kevin Goldstein: I’m more concerned with the fact that you watched The West Wing.

Guest: Re: Francisco Alvarez- the question was not, “should they move him up now”?, but rather “when would an org consider moving him up if he continues to dominate the level”? People ask these questions because they see you as having legit insight into how teams view timelines, not because they want you to snark at them and tell them to calm down. Do you actually enjoy interacting with people here, or do you just enjoy feeling superior to them?

Kevin Goldstein: You seem angry. I’m having fun. Asking if a guy should move up after a week deserves a calm down, I also answered later than you’d like six weeks over six games so I did give a timeline. So calm down.

Jo-Nathan: What can Vandy’s CF Enrique Bradfield Jr. be at the next level? Keith Law compared him to Trea Turner the other day, but if he never hits for power can he still be a 2023 first rounder?

Kevin Goldstein: I think so! Plus plus defender, crazy wheels that he knows how to utilize. Feels like he might the guy we hoped Billy Hamilton would become?

Guest: Y/N Top 100: The Master, High & Low, The Royal Tenenbaums, Stalker, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Kevin Goldstein: Close, no, ABSOLUTELY (god I love that movie), YES, don’t know on the last one. Been sitting in my watch list forever, I guess I should get to it.

Kretin: Where would Ty Madden rank on your personal board currently?

Kevin Goldstein: Somewhere in the 8-12 range.

McNadler: Will the Detroit Tigers crest 0.500 in any season before Cabrera comes off of the books?

Kevin Goldstein: Don’t think 2023 is out of the question. It’s not a lock, but it’s not out of the question.

Didace: “No below average defenders at SS or C.” So, half the league at those positions should be benched?

Kevin Goldstein: Like I said, personal bias . . .

Dalton Wilcox: What is up with Kyle Hendricks? Also why don’t mainsteam or otherwise credit the Cubs for his developmentz? I wonder if it has anything to do with money?!

Kevin Goldstein: I’m confused. Teams don’t credit the Cubs for his development because of money?

Josh: What do internal player evaluation systems look like? Are they tracking every at bat with some grading system and cleaning data? Or are they looking at a larger sample and trying to make sense of the noise?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re doing both.

Jacques Pederson: I swear 5 minutes after I asked the low-level minors question, I got to the part of the episode where you talked about it

Kevin Goldstein: Thanks for listening then!

All Dynasty League roto players: Did you see Petie Prospect take that 1-1 pitch? Last year Petie wouldn’t have taken that pitch. How soon before they call him up? Huh? Huh? Huh?

Kevin Goldstein: You’re gonna make that one person mad again.

Jewish Pache: How long can Huascar Ynoa keep thriving with essentially 2 pitches? The slider is legit but will we need to see more of the changeup for him to find sustained success?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not totally sold on the three pitch thing. He’s throwing upper 90s with a slider that is like you said, legit. If you can pitch deep with two big offerings, why not?

Guest: What do you make of Brandon Lowe over the long term?

Kevin Goldstein: Not optimistic.

Jo-Nathan: Who plays Kevin Goldstein in your future Bio Pic?

Kevin Goldstein: I was once mistaken for Frank Black outside of a Pixies show. Does he act? He’s also gotten bigger, while I’ve lost about 40 pounds since three years ago….

Farhandrew Zaidman: Pitchers’ stuff (velo and movement) is getting better league-wide, but it doesn’t seem like command is improving at a commensurate rate. The intuitive analysis would indicate that walks are now at a premium. But isn’t the counter-intuitive point more important, i.e. that HITS are at now a premium with stagnated BA, BAPIP, xwOBA, etc….are walks now overrated?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not sure, but you’re idea is an intriguing one.

Sean: Following up the Kelenic answer above… How aware are the current players of the situation?  For the guys that are giving their all every day trying to win, are they discouraged knowing that help if needlessly sitting in AAA?  Or are they programmed to give it their all every day and not worry about these things?

Kevin Goldstein: Both can be true.

James: What’s the best food you’ve seen brought into a ballpark by a fan, assuming your team allows outside food (which mine does)?

Kevin Goldstein: Hmmmm. No obvious question, but I’ll always remember seeing Brendan Rodgers in high school and his parents grilled hamburgers and hot dogs for all of the scouts in attendance.

Guest: Kevin, been loving having you on the FG staff. You and Eric are must read on everything. What do you make of the Vidal Brujan power surge? If he can hit 20 HR in the MLB, his on-base skills and 70/80 FV speed makes him one of the most exciting players in baseball, no?

Kevin Goldstein: Thanks for the kind words and I love being on the FG staff. Brujan’s early power display is pretty amazing. A 20 HR versoin of him is a fantastic player, but that’s still TBD.

Jonathan: What’s up with Josh Bell?

Kevin Goldstein: I wish I knew. I thought the breakout season was for realsies.

Fish: More likely to be a league average hitter ROS: Josh Bell or Schwarbs?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not sure I want to bet on either. I’d take Bell if forced to.

Ben: In your response to the question about Kameron Misner you called him a “power goof”. I’m not familiar with that description. Would you mind explaining it? Thanks

Kevin Goldstein: Big power, low batting average, lots of Ks. Power tool WAY over hit tool.

The calmest dude: Hey Kevin. Calm down.

Kevin Goldstein: Calmer than you are.

Joe: What’s on your top 100 list that most people would be like “wait, what?”

Kevin Goldstein: The Tempest? Gremlins 2?

Jeb: For movies….do you like horror movies? Or not your genre?

Kevin Goldstein: I do, but I prefer Korean and Japanese horror to American (in general).

Kevin Goldstein: Holy crap! It’s 12:40! I’m having too much fun. Just a few more and then I’ll make room for Ben…..

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: There Will Be Blood > Boogie Nights, but both great.  would also put The Master and Hard Eight over Magnolia though..

Kevin Goldstein: Disagree on the Boogie Nights thing, but might be with you on the Magnolia point.

Pat: Franklin Perez- Was there anything that Houston saw that indicated he may become so injury prone, so it made it easier to part with him in the JV trade? Sadly, it looks like he may never be what he was back in 2017.

Kevin Goldstein: Not at all. I thought he was the best player heading to Detroit in the deal and I was really rooting for him. Great kid.

Romorr: DL Hall looked mighty good in just his first start.  Think he can put it together and be a starter, or are you with Eric and see a top end reliever?

Kevin Goldstein: I think there’s reliever risk there, but I’m not ready to make it a sure thing or anything.

David – formerly Sonoma State: I’m kind of curious to see you and Eric write a scouting report on the same player, completely exclusive of talking to each other. Would we see slight differences in the write-up? Are there “quirks” in such reports that reflect personality of the scout, or is this a dumb idea?

Kevin Goldstein: Really love this idea.

Nate: Speaking of your scouting experience with Rodgers…was there much debate between picking him at #2 that year over Bregman? Or were you guys always pretty set on picking Bregman?

Kevin Goldstein: It was Bregman, no debate.

FannyGraphy: Hello, does a RP get charged an ER for allowing the runner from 2nd base to score in extra innings?

Kevin Goldstein: Nope.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok, on that, I have to clear out. I could do this all day. Stay calm everyone, and sorry to those I offended, I guess.