Kevin Kiermaier Is Finally, Actually a Blue Jay

Kevin Kiermaier is a Toronto Blue Jay. If that sounds like old news, it’s because it is, but now, after four days spent in limbo (a dangerous activity for those recovering from hip surgery), we finally have the contract details to prove it. The deal is for one year and $9 million, which pushes the Blue Jays payroll over the first luxury tax threshold of $233 million – a threshold they have never crossed before.

Pending further moves, Kiermaier figures to take over center field duties from George Springer, while Springer replaces Teoscar Hernández in right. This represents a significant offensive downgrade for Toronto – Hernández is one of the top 30 hitters in the majors, and Kiermaier is… not – but with Kiermaier in center and Springer moving to a corner, the Jays hope to field one of the better defensive outfields in baseball. Springer was worth 1 Out Above Average in 86 center field games last season, with above-average arm strength and outfielder jump. He figures to be an excellent protector in right. Kiermaier, for his part, is one of the most talented gloves of his generation. He ranks first among active center fielders in career DRS and UZR, and his 71 Outs Above Average lead all outfielders since the stat was introduced in 2016.

And as impressive as his career totals already are, Kiermaier isn’t exactly slowing down. Entering his age-33 season, he’s yet to show worrisome signs of decline in the field. We can’t read too much into his defensive metrics from last season (he only played 60 games), but his sprint speed was elite and his arm continues to be one of the strongest in the league. He was worth just 1 OAA, but his Statcast outfielder jump metrics were all in line with the year before, when he ranked in the 97th percentile for outfielder jump and 98th percentile for OAA:

If you prefer the eye test, Kiermaier made his fair share of highlight-reel plays in 2022, proving he still has elite range and catch skills. You didn’t think I was going to write about one of the smoothest center fielders in the game without including a few clips, did you?

All this (and that last catch in particular) should come as reassurance to the Blue Jays, because it’s crucial that Kiermaier’s defense stays sharp. Unlike Springer, he can’t afford to move down the defensive spectrum. His .228/.281/.369 slash line this season was below average even for his position, and both Steamer and ZiPS project nearly identical production from him in 2023:



As long as his defense remains at its current level, however, Kiermaier is an average to slightly above-average player. Steamer projects him for 1.1 WAR in 382 PA next season, while ZiPS has him pegged for 1.6 WAR in 337 PA. That’s a two to three win pace over 650 PA, which fits comfortably in the “average to slightly above-average” bucket. Kiermaier is highly unlikely to play a full season – he’s injury prone and a liability against left-handed pitchers – but he’ll be a solid contributor in the 300-400 PA he does receive. With Springer to fill in the rest of the time, that should net the Blue Jays 3+ WAR from their center fielders. You can’t complain about that level of production.

That being said, you certainly could grumble about a player who either can’t stay healthy or can’t get a hit to save his life, and Kiermaier has been known to fall into both those camps. He’s missed time with various injuries in almost every season of his career, with ailments ranging from stiffness to soreness, to spasms and sprains. It’s rarely the same problem twice – there’s just always a risk he’ll slide the wrong way and tear a ligament or break a hip. As for his bat, a guy with a 95 wRC+ in a good year is vulnerable to some pretty ugly slumps. Over his worst 20-game stretch last season, he hit .169/.234/.305, practically unplayable numbers even for such a defensive whiz. These are the risks that come the reward of Kiermaier’s platinum glove.

The Blue Jays are lucky, then, that they’re so well equipped to handle even the worst-case scenarios. They won’t be hamstrung by an injury, because they have Springer to slide back into center as necessary. A four-time All-Star and World Series MVP is about as good a backup plan as you can have. Meanwhile, any risks that come with Kiermaier’s bat are mitigated by his teammates, who constitute what’s arguably the deepest lineup in baseball:



If any team can afford to stash a pitiful hitter in the nine-hole, it’s Toronto. As an added bonus, Kiermaier is presently the lone left-handed hitter in the everyday lineup, so his bat is more appealing than it would be on a lefty-heavy roster. No matter how much he struggles against same-handed pitching, opposing managers will be wary to bring in a southpaw reliever to face him knowing the caliber of right-handed hitters due up next.


With all that in mind, the Blue Jays seem to be a lovely match for Kiermaier, warts and all. Yet we can’t evaluate this move in a vacuum – I need to address the reason it was possible in the first place: the Teoscar Hernández trade. Toronto had a strong outfield alignment last season, with Gurriel in left, Springer in center, and Hernández in right. Overall, their outfielders combined for 8.6 WAR, fifth-most in the American League (and only a hair behind the Angels and Mariners). Thus, it came as a surprise when they dealt Hernández to Seattle for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. After all, contending teams rarely trade away All-Stars in their prime; it’s hard to get better by subtracting good players. The most logical explanation for the unexpected swap was that the Jays had a plan up their sleeves – something along the lines of signing Brandon Nimmo or trading for Bryan Reynolds – and they needed to free up roster space to make it happen. Instead, they filled that spot with Kiermaier, a decent player, but hardly the splashy upgrade fans were hoping for.



The Jays are stronger with Kiermaier than without, but it’s fair to wonder if they’d be better off had they simply kept Hernández. Looking at the projections, it’s a wash – Kiermaier and Swanson look to combine for 1.5-2.5 WAR, while Hernández can expect to finish in the same ballpark. In Teo’s favor, he provides that value from one roster spot, and he also comes with significantly more upside – he received MVP votes as recently as 2021. On the other hand, Toronto can afford to sacrifice some run production for the sake of run prevention. They finished last season with the fourth-most runs scored in baseball, but only the 13th-fewest runs allowed. Ultimately, it feels like Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins just moved the furniture around.

Thankfully for Toronto, signing Kiermaier doesn’t preclude another outfield acquisition. The team could use a better right field option than Whit Merrifield for the days when Springer is roaming center, and Shapiro claims he has ownership’s permission to stay over the luxury tax threshold in 2023. That means the Blue Jays should be in the market for names like Andrew Benintendi, Michael Conforto, Michael Brantley, and Jurickson Profar. A trade could also be in the cards, since Toronto has a jam-packed 40-man roster and a couple of great trade targets in Jansen and Gabriel Moreno. Lars Nootbaar and the aforementioned Reynolds have been linked to the Jays, though neither the Cardinals nor the Pirates are looking for a catcher anytime soon.

There’s no clear next move for the Blue Jays, but it’s obvious they need to do something more. The Kiermaier signing is all well and good, but Shapiro and Atkins have work to do before they call this offseason a success.