Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/14/18 by Kiley McDaniel November 14, 2018 12:11 Kiley McDaniel: Hello! Movers just left so I’m mostly settled in here in Atlanta. A quick rundown of all the content we’ve been publishing since the last chat: 12:11 Kiley McDaniel: All findable here at the prospects main page: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/ 12:13 Kiley McDaniel: I introduced our updated prospect asset value concept in the context of a JT Realmuto trade, after last week’s chat was chock full of JTR questions: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/ 12:13 Kiley McDaniel: we have the new scouting primer: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-fangraphs-scouting-primer/ 12:13 Kiley McDaniel: prospect graduations from the 2018 season: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/2018-prospect-graduations/ 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: Craig Edwards’ 3-part series where he tells you how we put a asset dollar value on every prospect in baseball: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: and here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-ou… 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: then applied that to UPDATED FARM RANKINGS: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/ 12:15 Kiley McDaniel: I capitalize that b/c we’ve never done that here at FG before since we were waiting to do it in this way…and people in chat are always asking about this 12:15 Kiley McDaniel: new podcast with full AFL reports on every notable prospects from Eric, free agency preview and a Twins scout that sued over age discrimination w/Sheryl Ring: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-… 12:15 Kiley McDaniel: And finally 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: we updated the board: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-board-updated-for-2019… 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: to coincide with the beginning of list season, which started today with the cardinals: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-40-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/ 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: (catches breath) 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: We also have a new Giants GM, new Orioles GM and further losses in the Houston front office to discuss 12:23 Kiley McDaniel: and i just got a phone call that i’m wrapping up 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: okay now we can get going 12:25 Matt: WHY HASN’T MY FAVORITE TEAM BEEN COVERED IN THE TOP PROSPECTS SERIES YET AND WHY DO YOU HATE THEM 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: Great place to start 12:25 mark: Alot of writers are saying there’s no way the Reds trade Suarez, but they are extremely deep in 3B prospects so wouldn’t it make sense to move one of them – possibly trade in Suarez for max value? 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: The Reds appear to be trying to take the step forward sooner than later and are collecting good players to add to the core–Votto, Suarez, Senzel, etc.–including possibly spending more than you’d think on free agent pitching 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: So I can’t see them doing that 12:26 Scott TINSTAAPP: Kiley! If Wander Franco keeps hitting like he has so far, is there any way he makes it to the big leagues by 2020 or are we looking at 2021 at the earliest given how the Rays slow roast their guys? 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: He hasn’t proven yet that he isn’t on the Juan Soto plan. Cannot rule out 2019 on merit, but the Rays are conservative with those things, so I’d probably say the first reasonable date would be 11 days into 2020. 12:27 ryan: tell us about a player you were the strongest advocate for who ended up being a GUY. vice versa tell us who you were all about then busted 12:28 Kiley McDaniel: Seems like the one that’s stuck to me most in the internet days has been Albies, in terms of being early on a guy. Was early on Acuna, but I was with the Braves then. One I was most wrong about was Gary Sanchez, altho my case was that he very well may not be long-term catcher and was streaky, may not age well athletically, so I wasn’t totally off base. 12:28 dj whipdick: Biggest surprise free agent signing? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: Nate Eovaldi over $50M is in play and I think it would surprise some. Jed Lowrie has a better 2-year platform performance than Zobrist did when he got 4 for 53 at the same age, so he could sneak up on people too 12:30 Joe: What’s the difference between Director of Player Personell and Director of Pro Scouting? 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: DPS is running the department of the scouts that cover minor/major league games. DPP is more of a high level scout, since that typically doesn’t involved running a department, but going from one to the other and being a top evaluator in many of them. Teams can use that title differently, tho. 12:31 john cale: i find it hard to believe the white sox would trade their farm for atlanta’s lack of elite talent 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: 12 dudes in the top 115 is a lack of elite talent? 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: You can quibble with our rankings, but the dollar values are empirically derived from what prospects have turned into. There’s also a margin of error where the difference between $369M and $405M isn’t much. If we end up moving a couple 50’s to 55’s in the winter lists, that covers the whole gap 12:34 Kiley McDaniel: So, like a 10% difference in two farms isn’t us saying one is clearly better than the other, we just lean one way 12:34 Ryan: with the elimination of pitching roles and reduction in total innings, does that make it more likely that teams will be willing to bet higher in the draft on guys with great stuff but “reliever deliveries”? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: It’s been happening the last few years. HS pitchers with head whacks and now stuff used to go to college and now they tend to sign. Hans Crouse, Jayson Schroeder, Matt Sauer, etc. 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: 3 years ago, Zach Hess (JR at LSU) was that type and didn’t sign 12:36 Mr. DE: Two questions about THE BOARD: Where is spin rate data coming from? And is there a schedule for team top lists to be released this off-season; how frequently will new orgs get posted? 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: Some we gather directly, like we have HS/college data that’s public (TM website of twitter account fo the college, etc.) or MLB appearances. The rest we get from teams 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: We don’t have a schedule for lists, but they’ll come fast than past years since we were updating the lists all throughout the year, so there’s less work to be done now 12:37 Aaron: Are there any worries about Daniel Espino’s size in conjunction with throwing 96-100? How concerned should a team be? 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: I’m dubious when an evaluation on a HS P is tied to now-arm speed and the rest (size, delivery, command, third pitch, etc.) is all just okay. It obviously fits where the game is going, but HS P are a different animal than upper level minor leaguers. The track record of upper 90’s prep arms is reeeeaaalllly bad 12:39 Hey offseason its me ya boy: Odds that the Yankees make a deal for Paxton? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: They seem like one of the favorites, if not the favorites, judging from what they need, the types of players they like, etc. 12:40 Flex Pie: Those prospect $ values – confused as to what time period those are for. Is that saying Vlad jr is worth $112 mil just in general, or $112 mil over the next 6 years? Or something else? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: If he was a free agent and teams could bid for his 6+ controlled years and everyone acted ratonally 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: that’s how much the winning bid would be 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: Said another way 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: the reason people in baseball say top draft prospects’ bonuses are too low 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: Casey Mize got $7.5M in June, is worth $41 million 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: the reverse of a car losing 20% of its value when you drive it off the lot 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: that gap gets a lot smaller or negative at lower picks/bonuses very fast 12:44 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: In response to FG’s recent pieces on putting dollar signs on prospects, how does that work for Brendan McKay? 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: The number is $54 million https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: if you mean the pitcher/hitter split, we just take where he’s ranked and both of those are folded into where he’s ranked 12:45 TKDC: What FV would you give Juan Soto right now? 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I will have to discuss it, but you could argue him and Acuna are something like 70/80 in terms of present/future value 12:45 Ryan: You guys have Eloy Jimenez currently projected for RF. How do you make a determination between the corners? 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: Basically just arm strength 12:45 Jon: If he can’t stick in CF, do you think Parker Meadows has the arm for RF? 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 70 runner with a 60 arm, that will work anywhere 12:46 Nick: Any early thoughts on MLB’s new Prospect Development Pipeline League? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: Seems like a positive development for baseball, not a negative for showcase companies right now, but it probably will lead to stuff that will be a negative for them soon 12:48 Kiley McDaniel’s #1 Faniel: What’s the rhyme and reason that determines the order that the prospect lists come out in? Highlight of the offseason TBH 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: Thanks! We stacked the teams that didn’t have top guys at the AFL first 12:49 DeGrom’s W/L record: I didn’t understand the reason Elehuris Montero was so low on your STL prospect list. I personally think he has more FV than Gorman, but what do I know. Could you expand? 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: Montero is probably a R/R first baseman that’s not super athletic. How many of those guys are in demand right now? Gorman has a better chance to play other positions, more track record of hitting/hitting with power 12:51 Oyster Burns: do honeywells injury concerns have anything to do with his screwball? 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: Lots of hard throwing guys blow out that don’t have a screwball, so no evidence to suggest that’s a reason 12:51 andy: You highlighted potential Realmuto trade packages. History tells us the Rockies won’t trade for him (or anyone that requires top 5 prospects…. That hasn’t happened since Bret Saberhagen, I believe). BUT, if you WERE to build a trade for Realmuto, what else would need to be sent out beyond Rodgers? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: The math for their prospects beyond Rodgers didn’t add up to compete with the other teams ahead of them. So you’d need a team that really likes Pint and/or Hampson, maybe throw in a graduated prospect like Ryan McMahon, etc. You could get there, it just may take an MLB asset or two, but Rodgers is a strong starting point 12:53 Pie: It seems like the losses in the Houston FO have mostly been tied to people getting better jobs. Should that be the read, or is it just a mass exodus 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Lets just say there’s a lot going on there 12:53 Hank: Can you give us a rundown on Mike Fast? What makes him such a big addition for Atlanta? 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: One of the top analysts in the game. I think fans may underrate how impactful that is, potentially having a small to medium edge you didn’t have before in dozens of decisions 12:54 SZBH: Thanks for great posts by Craig, Eric and you. Built a foundation we can and should always refer to. How do you put value on player who is in between prospect and proven? Like player who had crazy hot 150PA or uninspiring 300PA? 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: Oh, we’re working on that, too 12:54 JKD: Carter Kieboom: an asset to hold or a chip to cash in? 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: Hold 12:56 RIck Hahn: Does Collins, Rutherford, Dunning and lottery pick get me JTR and a young pitcher? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: Gets you in the conversation, not sure that would be the winning bid 12:56 Fangraphs reader: How do you do sourcing for the rookie leagues? Do you see a guy performing and ask about him? Do you have people who see the DSL and ask what prospects you should know about? Both? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: Every level, including the DSL, gets scouted now. Not easy to find always, but they exist 12:57 AFL: Do you incorporate AFL performance in your prospect rankings? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: Yes. Everything we can include, we do 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: Including some stuff, like makeup, that we can’t always tell you guys tons of details about 12:58 NotGraphs Revivalist: One thing mentioned in the prospect valuation article was how proximity to big leagues affects FV. Could Drew Waters or William Contreras be one of those guys with 55+ potential, but they’re too far off to call it yet? 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: Both could get there when in AA or AAA 12:58 Nick: In Craig’s update on prospect valuation there was table estimating how many players are in each FV tier (2 70s, 4 65s, etc). Does this mean there are on average 2 players in all of the minors every year that will become 70s, or just that there are 2 that you would project to be 70s? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: At any given time, that’s how many are on our list 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: Just as a way to know the distribution and match it to the old BA lists, that the top 2 are generally the 70’s, etc. since they didn’t use an FV system then 1:00 NotGraphs Revivalist: Kiley, how much of teheran’s $11M would ATL have to eat in order to give him to another team for free (or basically free)? $4M? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Maybe a little less, but something like that 1:01 Jake Jortles: In your Realmuto piece, you asserted that Realmuto would cost $40M per season if he were on the open market and looking for a 2 year deal, based on his production. However, no one actually pays the cost in dollars for wins. E.g. no one would actually give Bryce Harper $54M per season if they believed he was a 6 win player. So where exactly is this $/WAR estimate coming from, if none of the free agents, even the elite ones, are inking deals at those prices? It seems like the actual cost in dollars is somewhere around $5M to $6M per win, even by your own free agent contract estimates. Can you please clarify this? Thank you! 1:04 Kiley McDaniel: If Harper said he would only sign a 2-year deal, he would get $40M per year. You discount more on $/WAR as you tack on years and the player gets older. Realmuto is in his peak years, we’re only talking about 2 years and he’s far and away the best catcher in the game with multiple contenders with money to spend that need catchers AND Grandal has a QO attached. There’s way more in the $40M AAV that just some lazy linear dollar per WAR thing, that’s what the market would bear. The lower $/WAR you find are with lesser/older players on longer term deals. Top of the market on a short deal gets paid retail rates. May not be provable, since it never happens, but we can ask teams privately and they’ll tell us. 1:05 Kiley McDaniel: I’ll also add that a couple commenters in the JTR article were apopletic about the $/WAR assumptions and totally ignored 1) the market would pay that rate for JTR on a 2 year deal, so $/WAR isn’t a factor 2) the prospects were valued using that figure, so you can argue it should be lower, but then both MLB and MILB players would go down uniform amounts. Drives me nuts when the anti $/WAR crowd just yells and has no logic or alternative method, they just want to yell. It’s a good baseline for stuff like this because it’s the only one there is, then you make adjustments off of it. 1:07 TKDC: Doesn’t the prospect valuation take into account the cost of the player? Vladdy is going to get paid tens of millions of dollars if he is as good as advertised, so wouldn’t the free agent bidding for his service be $112 million plus the ~$40 million or so he’d get paid through the end of arbitration? 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: The arb money is factored in to Craig’s calculations. It’s essentially a fixed percentage of his WAR, as far as we’re concerned. That’s all you can really do this far in advance 1:08 Steve: You think Schroeder had a head whack? Seemed fine to me. On the topic of head whacks, what’s the outlook for Riley Pint? Any info about current stuff, health and delivery changes (hopefully reduced head whack, his had gotten extra bobbyheaded)? 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: He had one in HS, it was much better in pro ball. Pint hasn’t really improved in pro ball yet, but the sky is still the limit 1:08 Greg: FORCE A TEAM TO MAKE A TRADE. I’M BORED. 1:08 Adam: Can you explain what’s going on in Germany with Angela Merkel? I’m not familiar with German politics so I’m a bit lost on that one. 1:09 Mets Fan: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! 1:09 Satya: Where in Atlanta did you move to? (not a stalker…probably) 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: Near Emory/CDC 1:10 LudeBurger: Who has bad makeup?!?!? Those guys from cespedes BBQ I bet! 1:10 Tommy: You had Nico Hoerner as a 45 FV. Sneak peak, is that going to change at all in the updated rankings? 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think so 1:11 Fritz Ferter: Hey Kiley, is Verdugo, Ruiz, and May too much for Paxton or close to right? 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: Verdugo+May is a good starting point, maybe some lower levels toss-ins from there 1:12 Sammy Sooser: Trevor Bauer says he’ll only sign one year deals, he’ll be an incredible test case for $/WAR. 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: Well, once out of arbitration, sure. 1:13 Fritz Ferter: Do you have any “in the industry” takes about the wholesale mess in Seattle (this is a franchise competence question rather than a specific prompt about accusations of racism or sexism or sexual 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: there’s a lot going on there, too 1:13 DBRuns: As an Indians fan, how concerned should I be that the Tribe didn’t offer Brantley a QO? 1/$17.9 million seems like a good deal for a guy who produced 3.5 bWAR and 3.6 fWAR last year and is entering his age 31 season. Do they not even have the resources to offer a below market deal? 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: From what I read/understand, they couldn’t risk that he takes it and eats up all their payroll space. It was very unlikely, but that’s what happens when you’re already stretching payroll 1:14 Barves: Is Julio Teheran, Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara, Ian Anderson, Cristian Pache an overpay for DeGrom? 1:14 Kiley McDaniel: Yes 1:14 Randplaty: Do you agree with Craig Edwards $ value on prospects? Is Vlad Jr really worth two Tatis Jrs? 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: Craig wrote it in close consultation with Eric and I (and Appelman and Dolinar). The tippy top of the list is debatable b/c there just isn’t a huge sample size to base the projection off of, but it isn’t way off 1:15 GSon: waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh !! You don’t like my team!! 1:15 LudeBurger: Did I ever tell you you’re my heeerrroooooo???? 1:16 Malcom Nunez: I’M SO GOOD 1:16 Kiley McDaniel: that’s funny b/c I’M SO HOOD 1:16 Manny: RON PAUL (sorry I’ve missed a few weeks. The media tried to black me out) 1:16 Kiley McDaniel: Very on brand for a Ron Paul supporter 1:16 EWE BLAB: EWE BLAB 1:16 Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON. 1:17 Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty then that will do it for this week, busy schedule of prospect list making and holiday preparations and more furniture arriving. See you guys next week!