Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/6/19

12:19

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is sunbathing on the porch and the grout for the backsplash should be going in later today. Big changes to the chat as I figured out how to add a picture so you can tell me apart from people that ask questions as me. To your questions:

12:21

Archer: As a recent home purchaser whose kitchen  could use a slight face lift, I’d love to see the pictures of your new backsplash! Did you install yourself?

12:21

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I knew this would be the backsplash chat

12:21

Avatar Kiley McDaniel:

12:22

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: that’s mid installation, it’ll eventually go to the ceiling behind the vent

12:22

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Had the contractor’s guys do it. 5th contractor was the charm!

12:22

Jon: Kiley, please show us your kitchen backsplash!!!

12:22

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: People are whipped into a frenzy!

12:23

Evan: A certain baseball website released their prospect rankings for the Red Sox system. They have Jay Groome as a 60 FV while you guys have him as a 40+. Why do you think there is such a huge discrepancy?

12:23

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Well I don’t think any other sites use FV scaled the same way we do, so even if they use that term, we tend to be more conservative with how to use it

12:25

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: on Groome: he’s thrown 4 innings in the last two seasons and some of the concerns about him in the draft would somewhat predict what his bumpy pro path has been. So we’ll take the stance of moving him up when he’s healthy and performing.

12:25

Chase Strumpet: Any chance that Jose Urquidy gets a FV before exhausting his prospect status, or was his Sept/Playoff performance about what you expected from him once he settled in?

12:26

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Yeah he’ll definitely be an up arrow on the offseason lists

12:26

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Those will be starting soon, btw

12:26

FCT: What do you think Shogo Akiyama will get contract wise if/when he comes stateside?

12:26

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like reserve outfielder that would be a smaller, 1-year type guarantee, so he may opt to stay in Japan

12:26

Marcus: Does Cal Raleigh have a chance to be a force at the plate?

12:26

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Could maybe be a solid average offensive performer, but I don’t think that’s a force

12:27

Tyler: If you are the Pirates picking 7th, who would you target? One of the high school outfielders? High school pitcher?

12:27

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Very early for this, but I’ll entertain it. Assume Torkelson/Hancock/Martin are off the board, not clear whom else would go after them this early.

12:28

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I’m real hesitant to take a prep RHP that high, so I’d look HS OF, yes

12:28

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Here’s our current rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s…

12:28

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: and that includes last night’s new that Nate Savino is early enrolling at UVA and won’t be 2020 draft eligible,  but first draftable in 2022

12:28

Avatar Kiley McDaniel:

 

Kiley McDaniel
@kileymcd

 

Our 18th prospect in the 2020 draft is reported to be skipping his HS senior year to early enroll at Virginia, be draft eligible first in 2022. This has been rumored all summer, along with 2020 prep SS Robert Moore possibly early enrolling at Arkansas fangraphs.com/prospects/the-…

Nate Savino and his parents are sticking to their principles and honoring his commitment to @UVABaseball. The mag’s Joey Kamide writes in today’s column how the @PFHSBaseball left-hander is taking a risk, but also providing a refreshing example. bit.ly/34whREq
6 Nov 2019
12:28

SuspendedTommy: Thoughts on Jayce Tingler to the Padres?

12:29

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like a positive move

12:29

Mitch: Have you heard any names linked to the Cubs’ Scouting Director position?

12:29

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Have not. Unclear if there’s definitely a hire to be made there; buzz is the higher ups may be more involved than with most clubs in the draft room.

12:31

FCT: Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard for Kris Bryant?
Cristian Pache and Ian Anderson for Kris Bryant?

That about the right range value wise?

12:32

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I think one 55/60 FV borderline guy (like Pache) would be the one player price, roughly $45M in surplus value. In reality, teams don’t like trading those guys and it’s often multi-player packages in blockbusters, so two back-end top 100 guys is more likely

12:33

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: sorry had to let Scout back in

12:33

Ben in SoDak: How long could you see the automated umpire working out the kinks in the minors/indy ball before being introduced to the major leagues?

12:33

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I’d guess a couple years at least

12:34

Bach: What’s your opinion on the Yankees seemingly solely targeting college guys for their new pitching coach? Are there any names you’ve heard mentioned that haven’t been reported yet?

12:34

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard other ones, but they’ve already been tied to most of the top names.

12:35

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: It’s not surprising, because college offers more money and more autonomy along with shorter feedback loops, so if you’re a cutting edge go-getter, it’s much easier to stand out and get paid

12:37

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: it’s also a much quicker path to being an MLB pitching coach, after Derek Johnson and Wes Johnson (not related) have already done it and all the names you’re hearing tied to the Yankees will either get an offer to do it or a pay raise in college. You don’t hear about a lot of Double-A pitching coaches interviewing for these jobs. The pool of the top candidates are minor league pitching coordinators and top college pitching coaches. There isn’t really another place to look with any sustained success for first-time MLB pitching coaches.

12:37

Anthony: Is Chavis athletic enough to be a COF option if Boston trades JBJ or Mookie?

12:37

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Probably not, but he was sneaky fast in high school, like a 50 to 55 runner. He is not anymore.

12:37

5 Run Homer: Are we not all free agents, floating along the stream of life?

12:38

Ryan: If the Red Sox were offered one of Austin Riley, Jonathan India, Nick Madrigal, Nolan Gorman, or Drew Waters as a main piece for Mookie Betts, and they knew he was intent on free agency, should they accept?

12:38

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: You have to see the rest of the offer, but those are reasonable starting points if they’re shopping him. He wants to be an FA unless you overpay now, which I can’t see Chaim doing.

12:39

Winston: Do you think Klentak is playoffs or bust with his job on the line this year? Would a package of Bohm/Howard for Mookie and completely drain the farm be on the table?

12:40

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: No because there’s way to show progress, win 90 games and miss the playoffs. The binary analysis is usually not the best rubric for these things. I can’t see them doing that since both very well could be 2020 contributors with 13.5 years of control. It would be very short sighted. If both were 19 in A-Ball, it would make more sense.

12:40

Sean: Could Antonio Cabello jump up to 50 FV next year, or has that ship sailed?

12:41

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: We anticipated that happening this year and he hasn’t fundamentally changed, so still very possible

12:41

Nate: As a writer on a website, how do you manage your time between writing all your various lists, creating pods, seeing live baseball and doing chats. Need some advice on how to spend my time.

12:42

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I mean it’s not easy and there’s a couple other projects you aren’t mentioning. Mainly, prioritizing things by importance and then moving things up that are due in the short term is about all I can offer. I am not a productivity wizard with one crazy secret to solve your problem and one app that changed my life.

12:42

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Maybe I should be? Can I monetize being annoying?

12:42

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Have I already done this?

12:43

Craigy: With Chris Gittens exit data, disciplined approach and opposite field power could he be an option for the Yankees next year?

12:43

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Massive raw, but not clear he’s better than the 4A 1B types they’ve been kicking around in recent years (McBroom, Cooper, old version of Voit, etc.)

12:43

Purple Mays Haze: Any idea of timing of 2020 Board update?

12:44

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: It’s basically done now, just some minor shuffling and adding names on the back before it’s “announced”

12:44

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: took Savino off last night

12:44

Ben in SoDak: How do you view J2 guys in rankings? Recent experiences like Wander and Vladdy give positive feeling to ranking someone like Jasson high, but we’ve also recently seen situations like Maitan.

12:44

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I mean that’s about the hit rate of elite draft picks, too.

12:45

WashedKing: What is the most overrated “prospect type” you see ranked? i.e glove first middle infielder, bat first left fielder, etc.

12:47

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Not sure there is a clear one. We’ve seen some examples of the tools+stats hitters that have an approach that may not work vs. MLB pitching being overrated in our opinions (Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Luis Robert) and I think the crazy stats pitcher with fringe stuff is probably overrated because people think there’s two dozen Kyle Hendricks or Glavines in the minors, but magically getting more stuff (Spencer Howard, Shane Bieber, Kolby Allard) changes that profile, so you can’t really throw those guys in the trash with all the velo training guys are doing.

12:47

brad: Kiley, do you see Deivi Garcia holding up to a SP workload?  what is his upside SP2/3?

12:47

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I could see him throwing 150-175 IP a few times, but wouldn’t count on that perennially

12:47

Purple Mays Haze: From a Player Development standpoint, is there anything that (you are aware of) that teams do to help improve a pitcher’s “third time through the order” penalty? Is it just ‘add a pitch’?

12:48

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: That doesn’t really do it, because most MLB pitchers with a big TTO effect have three average or better pitches and slowly bring them out throughout the game. There isn’t much you can do, aside from maybe having an extra velo gear late in starts that you save…though that would probably effect your early-in-game performance.

12:49

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: It’s a combination of less stuff, less command via fatigue and the hitters having seen you twice, likely having seen all three pitches.

12:49

….: Why would anyone want to chat with you?

12:49

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: mom, let’s keep this over text going forward thx

12:49

Ryno: Who is your sleeper team to have a big offseason? Texas moving into a new stadium? Toronto adding some pieces to the young core? Tampa cashing in their depth for controllable MLB talent?

12:50

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Depends what “big offseason” means to you? Lots of guaranteed money handed out to FA? Lots of moves in total? Improves their team a lot?

12:50
12:50

Idiot person: Just curious, what is the offseason schedule for recent draftees? Like when do instructs start and either before or after, do the teams give them free reign to do whatever as long as they stay in shape? I’m pretty sure I’ve seen a recently highly drafted guy at my gym as he looks like the prospect and the HS is in the area (as in 5mins from the gym) and I’ve seen him as recent as a couple days ago mostly just messing around playing basketball and doing ab/core work and it got me curious.

12:51

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Instructs are late Sept to Oct, then guys are on their own until late Feb/March for spring training. The smart teams give guys detailed plans and workout regimens to do on their own and check in on them in person in the offseason to check in on progress. That’s not every team or even every prospect on good teams.

12:52

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: And some guys prefer just doing active stuff without a lot of baseball-specific or gym-intensive things to keep loose. Makes more sense for pitchers since bulk can often be bad.

12:52

The People: We want new episodes of the Unt. McDongenhagen Project and we want them now!

12:52

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: New podcast project and new other project will be announced later this month!

12:52

Jorge: Do you think the braves moves with flowers and markakis constitute a circumvention of salary “cap” rules and will mlb do anything about it?

12:54

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: No, teams do this sometimes, tho it isn’t often. Put an oddly-designed option with a buyout on a deal knowing that lets you take this one week exclusive rights situation and either pick up option (2020 payroll only) or decline option/pay buyout (2019 payroll only) and sign lower deal. If you’re up against it on payroll and you save money for the stretch run in 2019 and never spend it…this is a way to roll that money over. It’s good planning, really.

12:54

TJ: Most of the baseball ops jobs I’ve seen posted are internships, not full time jobs. Do teams really expect someone with an MBA and demonstrated experience working with R and SQL to turn down an 80k per year consulting job in order to take an internship? I came into this process expecting lower pay up front but not even being able to find a full time job to apply for is another thing

12:55

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: The market allows for it, so the teams expect it. It’s not common to fire a baseball ops sub-director level staffer unless there’s a clear fit issue and/or change of direction in the office, so they like to have a year or more with potential full-time hires. And there’s a seemingly endless pit of consulting jobs, but very few front office jobs. I’m sure you learned about supply and demand in school!

12:56

Joe H: Hearing anything about changes the Braves are making to their player development and scouting departments?

12:57

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like PD will have some new blood at the director level, amateur scouting sounds like it’ll stay the same as last year, int’l probably gets more staff with the bonus pool restrictions coming off soon.

12:57

Dan: Are you hearing any names connected to the Pirates GM job? Will Bob Nutting’s thrifty ways scare off decent candidates? Who would you hire?

12:58

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Heard Marc DelPiano (I think that’s been reported?) will interview, saw Matt Arnold mentioned (makes total sense) and Tony LaCava (many thought he’d get the job when Huntington landed it, he’s from PIT)

1:01

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Delp used to work in PIT and it sounds like Nutting likes him, he left to go to Miami and is now a top pro scout for NYY. Fair or not, the industry belief is Nutting hates paying two people to do one job, so the thought is he won’t pay top dollar or get a top candidate, since the job isn’t the most attractive and he isn’t seen as interested in paying for a top candidate. Arnold is probably in that higher tier, so it wouldn’t shock me if he passed. I would guess Chaim Bloom would’ve passed on the PIT job if they asked to interview him.

1:02

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: LaCava, like Delp, is a long-time scouting exec that’s very respected. Arnold is the AGM in Milwaukee, who is maybe the second-most progressive club behind Houston, but he has a scouting background, so you can see why lots of teams would be interested in him.

1:02

2-D: How are teams viewing the proposed minor league contraction plan?

1:02

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like this is even less concrete/more subject to adjustments than the int’l draft, so not a ton of strong opinions out there yet

1:03

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Teams do have at least a couple dozen players that they think have no chance of making the big leagues, so reducing the number of players under contract, using that to pay players more and then the marginal players/better affiliates that get left out get kicked to a more robust indy league system…it all makes sense logistically, though it isn’t a perfect answer obviously

1:04

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Like just pay the players more

1:04

Ben Her!tzberg: Asking what everyone here wants to know: when should we expect team prospects lists to start publishing? Thanks for all the hard work, appreciate it.

1:05

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: We have a meeting on the books about this in a few hours. I would guess Nov 18 they start.

1:06

LudeBurger: Please have every question be about your backsplash (I am serious)

1:06

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: sorry to let you down

1:06

Martian aka Jasson Domingguez: Can I move up next year on Fan graphs prospects rankings if I have a good year in minors ? Can I be good as Wander Franco and better than him? Do you see me moving number #1 prospects rankings in future ?

1:06

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Not to be the over the top guy excited by the new shiny thing, but it’s Yes x3

1:07

hello there: As a well known “prospect guy,” do you ever feel like you need to have the most realistic, practical, or, perhaps, conservative assessment of any given prospect or do you let yourself get carried away sometimes? And if you do, who’s a guy you got too excited about too quickly that actually panned out? One that flamed out?

1:08

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I think we tend to be a little more conservative the more we’re in the game and that sometimes means we’re a little late on really weird outliers like Juan Soto, getting him into the top 10 overall prospects only once he’s in the big leagues. Guys going from 50th to 5th in a month doesn’t really happen, so the more history you get, the more skeptical you are when an outlier presents itself. I think we’re getting better at making those big adjustment midstream since we’ve noticed this.

1:09

Matt W: Better backsplash than backlash!

1:09

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Just pointing this out so people are aware that I don’t exclusively own the worst puns

1:09

frenzy Popeyes chicken sandwich : Talking about Frenzy, how about Popeyes bring back their Chicken Sandwich , have you tried it yet?

1:09

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t but probably should

1:10

Randy: Why would the Rays not seek compensation from the Red Sox for Chaim Bloom?

1:11

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Teams typically don’t stand in the way of a promotion. Sometimes teams will turn down permission for a rival to offer a promotion, then offer the promotion themselves. Rarely, but sometimes, if the person is under a multi-year deal, the GM doesn’t tell them or compensate them about asking permission. This is a great way to get your employees to hate you and leave when their deals are done. I’ll let you guess who has done this a few times.

1:12

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: And Farhan LAD/SFG last winter was the same deal, no compensation, but LAD didn’t let him bring anyone with him. Would expect the same terms with TBR/BOS

1:12

Austin: why do teams have access to trackman data and agents dont? that seems like an unnecessary information gap, especially when it comes to free agent negotiations

1:13

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: The teams pay 6 figures for access and the agents don’t pay. I mean they also don’t have the opportunity to pay for it, but that’s how labor kinda works. Management gets more information than labor.

1:13

Josh: I see he’s kind of held serve on THE BOARD, but can I get a scouting report on Blaze Jordan?

1:14

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: R/R 1B, big power, hits in games, super young for the class so will be friendly to draft models for facts 3, 4 and 5, while facts 1 and 2 will be held against him. Late 1st to comp round or so at this point

1:14

Nolan: are you familiar with the website ‘baseball trade values’? I stumbled upon it recently and have enjoyed playing pretend GM. Obviously I take it all with a grain of salt, but is there an industry consensus on it? Way off?

1:14

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Seems like it’s the same basic surplus value type math that we do here, so not bad to have all the values in one place

1:16

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty well that’s all for this week, I’ll see you guys next week and also don’t forget about our NYC live event where I’m sure to say something controversial, maybe even on purpose!

1:17

Avatar Kiley McDaniel: we’re almost sold out

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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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J.D. Martin
Member
J.D. Martin

BP uses a prospect’s 75th percentile outcome as their FV nowadays FWIW. It does not try to be a single all-encompassing grade estimating future WAR like how the prospect team here uses it. (Whether this is a sound methodology or not is up for debate of course.) Also a little disingenuous because if you actually read Groome’s blurb, basically every other sentence details the risk that everyone knows about at this point.