Kiley McDaniel Chat: 12/5/18

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from the ATL. Head to fangraphs.com/prospects for our latest content, including the NL Central lists wrapping up this week with the NL East coming up next. Podcast going up later today

Jake Jortles: How bad was that Segura trade for the Mariners?  Seemed pretty terrible from here.

Kiley McDaniel: The Paxton deal was on the lower end of fine. This deal was maybe a little below that, in part because the market for SS’s isn’t large, there was guaranteed money, everyone knew he didn’t get along with Dee Gordon and SEA was aggressively dumping guaranteed money. Luckily they found a match of another team trying to dump money nobody wanted (Carlos Santana) that also had an MLB-ready everyday shortstop.

Kiley McDaniel: And by fine I mean the cold, economic asset value range–the Paxton deal was $35-50M in value for like $30-40M in value–where trades generally, in a vacuum tend to match up pretty well. The Segura deal had extenuating circumstances

Lilith: Is it likely that Bobby Witt Jr is going to fall in the draft due to his age and contact issues?

Kiley McDaniel: Fall would be relative to where he is now and everyone know his age now, so that’s not an issue in terms of where he’s headed. He’ll probably slide up a bit (we cover this in the podcast that’s coming out today) as he performed well at Jupiter and with Team USA, answering some of those contact questions.

Anthony: What’s your take on the ‘ban the shift’ question?

Kiley McDaniel: Completely absurd. It’s a small fraction of at bats. It won’t make a giant difference, it’s just traditionalists that think this will stop the three true outcomes momentum, which isn’t a clear good or bad, and it will just make a small dent.

Joe: Loved the write-up about the Reds minor league system.  Where would they rank approximately right now against the rest of the league?

Kiley McDaniel: This doesn’t factor in changes we’ll make in grades over the winter and trades, but here’s a decent idea (they were 6th at the end of the season):  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

Gregory: I saw this rumor earlier today and as a Giants fan, should I be excited about a potential return of JoJo Romero, Spencer Howard, and Daniel Brito for Bumgarner?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s probably about as good as you’ll do. I might even expect less. That’s probably three 45s for us, but could be a couple 50s by midseason.

Jordan: Can I chat here and lead a conference call at the same time?

Kiley McDaniel: Depends how many questions you submit

Oyster Burns: any added skepticism when a prospect is traded twice?

Kiley McDaniel: not really. if he’s traded when the drafting team is going for it, then the acquiring team goes from selling to buying pretty quickly…it could just be he’s a guy with universal trade value which is a general positive but kinda neutral.

Roger : does nimmo, gimenez, kay get it done for realmuto? then sign pollock. am I crazy or the mets going all in will still leave them 4th in the division on paper?

Kiley McDaniel: That should get you in the ballpark

Kiley McDaniel: and the NL East is getting real interesting and also the Marlins

Anthony: Where are you at on JP Crawford now? Still see a 3-4 win shortstop there?

Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I just discussed him. 45 or 50 now, 50 or 55 future. I’d say 50 now/55 future and there’s some chance for more, but that’s the median projeciton

Sandy: How full of horse manure is driveline? Do teams drink the kool aid?

Kiley McDaniel: LOL well the smart ones do and many of the dumb ones share your opinion, so I’ll let you do the math.

Kiley McDaniel: I mean the best teams in the highest profile situations have guys throwing fuzz, lots of strikeouts, tinkering and finding ways to maximize performance, hitting bombs…this isn’t exactly and only what Driveline does but it mostly is…so what did you think the answer would be?

Weenie: Do you think the Mariners will trade Mitch Haniger? Should they?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’s the one they keep. Seager is the one they’ll hold until he appreciates some, then they’ll move him. Both informed guesses.

Oyster Burns: who makes the playoffs first- Os or Miami?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll lean Miami b/c the NL East could cycle down a bit but the AL East has a clear financial advantage over the O’s that they’ll have to win 90 games to have a chance and the other four teams are so far ahead with personnel

Davis: What happened to the Yankees system? Yikes! Maybe they learn from Chance Adams and cash in Johnny Lasagna/Mikey King while they’ve got some value

Kiley McDaniel: They traded the prospects so the big league team will keep making the playoffs…?

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: What’s been the biggest change from having Cistulli as editor to Rowley?

Kiley McDaniel: Less gardening and pennyfarthing references being snuck into my articles

Laviska: Which team is going to steal the offseason by trading for Bumgarner AND Kluber? Maybe an angry Klentak after whiffing on free agency?

Bob: What are the Mets doing?  15 teams have talked to the Marlins about Realmuto and came away thinking their ask is insane, and yet here we are, willing to talk about Nimmo, Rosario, etc.  Does BVW know free agency exists?

Kiley McDaniel: Man I forgot how insane fans become when there’s no games

Paul: Is there a consensus in the league about how much value winning in the minors has?  Building confidence and  establishing a winning culture etc.

Kiley McDaniel: Everyone would rather do it than not do it, but if you start running prospect relievers out there three days in a row, not letting lefty hitters face lefty pitching, etc…you are probably hurting their prospect status and that doesn’t really happen, so it’s just a matter of degrees

Bob Sacamano: Do the Braves have any sleeper prospects in their system currently?  Someone who you think is currently undervalued perhaps?

Kiley McDaniel: That list is coming likely Friday or Monday

Kiley McDaniel: making calls today/tomorrow, mostly

Koba: Some Reds fans are ready to end it all over the new Hunter Greene writeup. Any thoughts on why they should step back from that ledge, my friend?

Kiley McDaniel: his future pitch grades are 80, 55 and 55 with 60 command

Uncreative SOB: Do prospects read their own scouting reports and look at their rankings in orgs, and if good enough, on prospect lists? It’s all right there on the internet and probably hard to resist urge if I was them. If yes, do orgs really care, or would they rather they not?

Kiley McDaniel: There was a Braves prospect that I talked to as a writer that swore he never read them, then when I joined the front office it’s basically all we talked about

Amari: If you’re a GM, would you rather sign Ottavino at $10M/yr x 4 yrs, or Kimbrel at $17M/yr x 5 yrs?

Kiley McDaniel: I might take Ottavino at the same price, so this isn’t close

Dominik: You said that you have downgraded pitchers some due to the attrition risk in the top100 lists. How is this done? Just give them a grade disregarding the risk and then subtract half a grade of every pitcher? Or is it more subtle and individual?

Kiley McDaniel: B

Kiley McDaniel: and now we have better data about how pitchers turn out at our various tiers to finetune that a bit

Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I have always talked about releasing a 3 hour podcast of us talking through the top 100

Kiley McDaniel: it’s a lot of “pitcher x would be 15th if we weren’t worried about y but then would you trade him for this hitter ranked here yeah but this makeup issue we haven’t fully reported but we know what it is means z” etc.

Kiley McDaniel: obviously there’s enough stuff we can’t say publicly mixed in there so if we ever release it, it won’t be quite as fun as it actually is

Billy Beane: Kiley, if I currently have an economics adjacent degree and a master’s unrelated to stats or baseball, which would be better for trying to get a decent baseball job in the next year: a Master’s in Data Science or a video scouting internship with one of the baseball information companies?

Kiley McDaniel: masters will get you interviews that you wouldn’t get without it

Kiley McDaniel: video internship is likely to not move the needle very much

Kiley McDaniel: in terms of interviews, but obviously there’s some experience/connections that come with it

Captain Moonlight: What are frequent topics of conversation among scouts, besides baseball?

Kiley McDaniel: Well, it’s baseball, but I average at least an incoming call a day of a scout/exec asking what I’m hearing about hiring with other teams. I don’t report like 90% of it since it’s just not buzzy things that this crosschecker switched teams or this team is looking for a special assistant type, etc.

HugoZ: Odds that Pache makes Ender dispensable?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s heading in that direction. Ender’s skillset does not age well and he could be moved before his decline for a return since he has a good contract

Captain Moonlight: Jerry DiPoto exhausts me entirely

J: Are the Mets going to alter their Scouting department (specifically their lack of complex league Scouting you and Eric mentioned) under Baird?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t know but I would have to guess they will

Logan: The Reds seem intent on acquiring pitching. Do you see them focusing on only the FA market, or could some of their position talent end up on the trade block?

Kiley McDaniel: I think they’ll add a few free agents then let the young core/prospects marinate a bit before they have the urgency of PHI/ATL/NYM, but I think that’s on the horizon

J: Is there any word on who will run the Orioles Scouting and PD departments?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard anything on that, so here’s a call for anyone that knows something to be my incoming call today

Kiley: Any chance the Mariners get lucky with Julio Rodriguez making a Juan Soto-esque meteoric rise?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean there’s a chance with most prospects you’ve heard of but it’s pretty rare. Maybe 1-2%?

Greg: Do you think the Cano (and Bruce) trade open up more time for Dom Smith?

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess he’s the odd man out and a rebuilding team with a hole takes a chance on him

Kiley McDaniel: Alonso 1B, Cano 2B, McNeil getting worked in at each spot is my opening day guess for NYM

Kiley McDaniel: and Rosario/Frazier seem locked in, Nimmo/Conforto as well

Kiley McDaniel: With Nimmo probably the only one with a chance to be moved

Stuafoo: Does Jerry move too fast for his own good?

Kiley McDaniel: The Braves have finally been unseated as #1 question topic here. Haniger/Dipoto is #1 by a mile today

The Amish: Who is more exciting between Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez?

Kiley McDaniel: We prefer Kelenic, but Rodriguez is probably more risk/reward

v2micca: One moment I hear rumors that the Mets are open to trading Degrom or Syndergaard for a prospect haul.  Now I’m hearing they are looking to include Nimmo as the centerpiece of an offer for Realmuto?  Does anyone know what is going on in New York’s front office?

Kiley McDaniel: I think they’re exploring everything, which is good

The Amish: Long term are you taking Justin Dunn or Logan Gilbert?

Kiley McDaniel: I think Eric prefers Dunn, I’m more split

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll figure it out when that list comes up. Haven’t made all the calls yet

Josh Nelson: Hey Kiley, lots of 2019 MLB Draft top 50 lists are sprouting up on different media sites. Are you as high on Baylor C Shea Langeliers as others? He’s got great defensive skills but I question if his offensive approach is worth a Top 5 pick. Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: We also have a list. We’ll update it next week, but it’s more moving 10-12 guys around from Fall workouts and expanding the back end, with some of the movers previewed on the podcast dropping late today: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&te…

Purple Mays Haze: How do you evaluate Game Power vs Raw Power? Is it how he actually does in games? Or more like how does he do across all ‘pitches’ (vs teeing off in BP)?

Kiley McDaniel: Raw is how far can you hit it in BP relative to others

Kiley McDaniel: Game is how many homers you will hit in a full season as a starter

Kiley McDaniel: which are obviously related, but not as closely as a casual fan would assume

Austin: How much trade value do players like Jeff McNeil have? (guys that weren’t top 100 but performed at the Major Leagues – even in a small sample)

Kiley McDaniel: Teams are still split on if he’s a mirage/utility or will be an everyday type

Kiley McDaniel: so it’s akin to a performance over tools, swing change Triple-A 45/50 FV borderline guy, give or take

Kiley McDaniel: At this time last year, Colin Moran was something like that, but probably better than McNeil today in terms of trade value

The Final Boss: Can you think of another instance where 4 teams in a division went “all in” at the same time? Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals are all going hard.

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe DJ Khaled can get 19 artists on a track about this

Agency switch : I keep seeing things on my Twitter TL saying people hired “Agency X”. Can you shed some light on this process for someone who has no idea how these deals go down?

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty straightforward. You hire someone for 4-5% of your income to do a job for you. You can hire/fire. 40-man guys register their agent with the union. Non-40-man guys don’t so it’s bigger news obviously for 40-man types but it’s also official in a way that it isn’t for lower level prospects

Drew: Do you see the Reds trading Nick Senzel for pitching ? And would you trade him for any of the available Indians starters ? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: I do not

Purple Mays Haze: For or against being able to trade MLB draft picks? (Or will that just make DiPoto’s head explode…)

Kiley McDaniel: VERY in favor of

Kiley McDaniel: kind of insane it isn’t talked about more as a CBA issue

Kiley McDaniel: since it’s good for almost everyone

Sir Nerdlington: Why don’t more teams own their MiLB affiliates?

Kiley McDaniel: Ties you to that team for a long time, so unless you’re like the Braves with a team in the deep south or NYY/BOS in northeast where you have more cachet than any other team would and it’s close to your home…you may want to leave an affiliate and this makes it way harder

wick: Is kyle tucker a regular by July?

Kiley McDaniel: I think so

Doug: What does a realistic return look like for Gray? I’ve seen NYY fans thinking that they can get Michael Baez or someone similar.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s projected for 1yr/9M and I’m not sure he gets much more than that if he’s on the open market. Maybe he’d get 2 for 20-25 with an option? There’s not a ton of surplus value here.

Kiley McDaniel: And it’s just one year of control, so even if you like him, there’s limited upside

Braves: What the H*LL is up with the Steamer projections?? Braves going from a 90 win season to a projected 83…that seems off.

Kiley McDaniel: If the season starts today…and they have 3 holes to fill. Use it as a relative thing for teams that are similarly done with their offseason

Mac: I’ve seen various articles elsewhere saying that Kluber and Bauer’s trade values are fairly similar. Does age really make up for the extra year of control for Kluber?

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote an article about this in July: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-1-to-10/

Artie Lange: I’d like a piece of Johnny Lasagna

Kiley McDaniel: what drug is that code for

Morbo: Hi Kiley! Now that Carson has abandoned us for the blinding splendor of the Great White North, are there any plans for some combination of you and Eric to continue the spirit of Carson’s Fringe Five posts?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think Eric and I’s spirit have anything in common with Carson’s

Chuncey Wiggins: Do you ever get the feeling that some people have feelings for you in these chats?

Kiley McDaniel: In the thanksgiving chat my family saw some of the questions and asked if I had security

Mika: How high can you pitch in the minors with only a 70 fastball with 60 command?

Kiley McDaniel: Triple-A wouldn’t be too hard

Kiley McDaniel: I mean Rivera was an 80 fastball with 70 or 80 command…so that guy you’re describing would be usable in the big leagues

Kiley McDaniel: but the threat of another pitch would be key, so he’d probably be an up/down guy eventually

13: How many MiLB players have agents?

Kiley McDaniel: Essentially 99% of the ones you’ve heard of

cheese: Are the

Ron Paul: RON… PAUL!

MATT DAMON: DAMON OF THE MATT VARIETY

Kiley McDaniel: oh wow that snuck up on me

Bertrum: How long until the four major sports form an alliance and allow intersport trades?

Duder: What’s going on in the Houston front office? Bro’s be dippin out

Kiley McDaniel: lol bros be dippin out has been added to my vocabulary

Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: I knew he’d show up. See you guys next week at the Winter Meetings! I would say come find me if you want to say hi but people kinda assume that already