Kiley McDaniel Chat – 2/23/18 by Kiley McDaniel February 23, 2018 11:33 Kiley McDaniel: Leave your question here and I’ll be back at noon eastern to chat. See my twitter @kileymcd for my notes from the MLB Int’l showcase (July 2nd, 2018 eligible Latin prospects) this week and Carson tells me that my post with tons of draft info will be going up shortly. 12:04 Kiley McDaniel: Inception 12:04 Kiley McDaniel: whoa 12:04 Matt: This isn’t where I parked my Jeff Sullivan 12:04 Kiley McDaniel: You will be able to find him here next week and me in my rightful place next week! 12:06 He Hate Me: Given that pitchers have a higher injury risk than hitters, does it make sense to focus more on hitters in the draft and then trade some of your seasoned hitting prospects (some of whom might be blocked) for young pitchers that have proven to be durable in their first few seasons? This seems to be the opposite of what the Braves have done (closer to what the Cubs are doing?). 12:08 Kiley McDaniel: There’s definitely some merit to that approach and it may be the most correct broad approach, given the research I’ve seen. That said, miss or make a couple high profile picks/trades and your broad strategy choice doesn’t really matter and you could argue that once an ace has revealed themselves, you’re never getting them, so you have to try to sign them as an amateur. No correct answer here. 12:09 He Hate Me: Several teams have broached the subject of the 6-man rotation but would piggy-backing at the 5th starter spot be a better idea, to see if one guy can win the job outright? It doesn’t force the ace to make fewer starts and would make sense for a guy like Ohtani (or really any Japanese import) to piggy-back in April/May in order to ease into a 5-day schedule. To me, throwing 3 guys for 3 IP each might be even better, as one or more of them could be available for an inning or two between “starts” and you get three chances to unearth a breakout guy instead of two. Thoughts? 12:11 Kiley McDaniel: Much like the previous question, this makes sense but answer comes down to context. What keeps your specific pitchers healthy most effectively? What best deploys their specific strengths (i.e. multiple aces then a bunch of fringy guys or no ace and lots of backend guys)? What will get buy in from the players and, eventually agents and other players? Coaches and prospects also matter, so, again, the academic answer, whatever it may be, likely isn’t the completely correct one. And I don’t think you can even really approach without considering that above stuff. 12:12 Jack: What makes Ryan Vilade a promising prospect? What does he have to do in full season ball to earn his way onto a top 100? 12:13 Kiley McDaniel: Basically, he’s average to above at everything. Good feel for the game and makeup–his dad is a coach at Oklahoma State. If the performance is there and he stays healthy, he could be a guy. You have my permission to scout the stat line a little bit on him. 12:13 Kvn: What does Tommy John surgery mean for Honeywell’s FV? 12:13 Kiley McDaniel: Since the recovery rate is something like 80% and FV is future value, it’s probably the same, just will take longer and more risk than before 12:13 Oliver: All the commentary I’ve read about Tristen Lutz praises his power. What is the reputation on his hit tool? How good he can be? 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: I’d look for a 5 bat and 6 or 7 game power, playing an average RF. That’s kinda the expectation if you like him. And that’s obviously really good. Risk is the distance to the majors, time to maturity and contact/not getting to the power in games. 12:14 Luzinski’sSweatyGooch: Are you and Eric ever going to do a podcast together? Because…well, you two might be able to cover a lot more ground between the two of you vs CC’s stops and starts and general flights of fancy. 12:15 Kiley McDaniel: Flights of fancy that never take off or hand out the fair trade peanuts 12:15 Marcus: Glad to be able to read your work again. Many names for the 2018 July 2 class seem to be connected to teams already, but the usually aggressive Yankees don’t seem to be coming up with any of them. Is there anything to that, or do you expect them to be as active they were this year? 12:17 Kiley McDaniel: Almost every scout I talk to calls the MLB event “pro scouting” since almost every player has a deal and you can’t get them. So, it’s like scouting a DSL or Rookie league all star game. NYY may have the best recent track record of signings and there’s plenty of instances where spending money doesn’t get you much, so I’d focus more on if my team is creating Frecier Perez’s out of nothing instead of if they get headlines on July 2nd. 12:17 felix unger’s duster: Colin Moran HR total this year — O/U 24.5 12:17 Kiley McDaniel: I’ll go under 12:18 Earl of Baltimore: any inside/industry folks know what is actually going on in the Baltimore front office? the articles this week on the Cashner & Tillman signings (*shudders violently*) mentioned Brady & Buck’s role in the deals with DD conspicuously absent. All the of the Toronto President stuff and Angelos refusing to let him go from 3 years ago essentially rendering DD lame duck this season? his (and Buck’s) contract done this year, he resents PA not letting him go, wants to move on and is asleep at the wheel? 12:20 Kiley McDaniel: Not sure of all the mechanics, but there’s a general feeling from the people I’ve talked to that Buck will be running everything there at some point. Who knows when that actually happens or if Angelos changes his mind? 12:20 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Pour one out for Honeywell’s UCL. The Rays have no shortage of number 3-5 type guys, but Honeywell was a cut above. Does this materially change the direction the franchise should take in the near future, or should they just stay the course and see what the guys in AAA have to offer? 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: It’s a bad day, get well soon Honey. TB didn’t seem to be moving their chips in this year, more treading water and aiming for 2019 and 2020 when the cheap kids come up. Now Honeywell now won’t accrue any service time until that projected window…so it still kinda fits what they are doing, there’s just a little more risk he’s not a big part of that future if things don’t come all the way back. 12:22 Greyson: Are you going to visit UVA on any scouting trips this year? 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: Already scouted them and some notes are coming probably during this chat. Short version: I like Jake McCarthy and don’t like how they develop their players. 12:22 Chuncey Wiggins: How aware our FO of fans’ opinions? 12:23 Kiley McDaniel: More than you’d think. Doesn’t mean they act on it, but fans know way more now than they used to, so you can’t just dismiss a revolt like you could before. Also easier to organize and amplify a revolt, like with TB and PIT fans this offseason 12:23 Debbie Downer: Is this another prospect chat? 12:23 Kiley McDaniel: Not this again 12:24 Jim: Kiley, Your take. Collusion, or did EVERY… SINGLE… AGENT… simultaneously lose the ability to read the market accurately? Yes, I know, Some players have moved, and the ice is breaking up, but even still, its a very slow offseason !! 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: I think teams have 1) been getting more similar in their methods 2) more careful to avoid longterm deals 3) owners have been getting less involved 4) the league has been getting younger and rookies have been making more of an impact and they’re all cheaper than vets 5) it’s worked out that deals get better the longer you wait, so teams are seeing how much you can stretch that principle, so we were moving toward this gradually. What made it all happen now was 1) the big market teams are trying to get under the tax for next offseason 2) Boras overplayed his hand but with more players than usual and 3) teams that can spend, big or middle market, want to wait until next offseason to spend huge money when there’s better players. 12:27 Blue Jay Matt: Ross Atkins recently said that Nate Pearson could have gone 1st overall, is Pearson really that good? 12:28 Kiley McDaniel: He’s really good and he’s on our top 100 in a good spot, top 10 in his class. Don’t think anyone would take him #1 right now, but that could be a discussion at the end of the year if he really performs–the ceiling is there https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/ 12:28 Dan: Can you do a brief run through how the new CBA affects IFAs? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: Hard caps, no penalties, Cubans 23 and under get lumped in with Dominican/Venezuelan/etc 16 year olds 12:29 Philip: AAAAAAAAAH BASEBALL 12:30 Bork: Hey not Jeff, does Danny Jansen get called up this year? Seems like other then being blocked by Martin and maybe needing more AA/AAA experience, he’s ready. 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: Tend to agree, assume he’ll get some time this year 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: My draft article just went up, if you’d like to take a look 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/draft-notes-in-person-scouting-scuttle… 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: It has reports and video on the guys I saw last week along with lots of news and scout buzz around the game 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: Also if you ever wonder what a 60 curveball looks like, my Mason Denaburg video has lots of them all back to back at the beginning of the video. It’s 90 seconds of curveballs to start so I’ll embed it here 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: 12:34 Mike: How meaningful is it to take assessment to be one of the better players in the DSL at 18? Also why are HR totals so low there? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Not great since the most talented players are 17 and still raw. It’s kinda like having the best stats at a high school tournament with 16-20 year olds playing. I bet the best long term prospects will not lead the tournament in stats 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: The stadiums are mostly big, it’s really hot and humid, the balls may be lower quality and also it’s mostly teenagers swinging wooden bats 12:35 Nick: Do you think Jhailyn Ortiz could be a serviceable outfielder one day or is he destined for 1st base? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: 1B BIG DUDE 12:36 Rays gonna Rays: Does McKay have Otani FV? Arm good enough for SP? Bat good enough for 1B? 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/ 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: most of you answers are here 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: and here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-making-of-the-top-100-prospects-li… 12:37 Erik: Is scouting entirely a learned skill, or is there some inherent (genetic?) talent to it? In other words, I watch a lot of baseball–if I watched as much as a scout does, would I end up with the right skills? Or do scouts have, like, better eyes or something? 12:39 Kiley McDaniel: Good question. Some people pick it up a lot faster but I don’t think it’s vision. I think there’s a way to think about the game and rank players and think about the process of narrowing down what a tool grade is, mostly mental, that some people are predisposed to. Having the mental reps of watching/playing the game speeds this up, but I’d bet there’s something we can eventually measure way into the future that would predict who has a predisposition to be good at scouting, if they have the environmental factors already on their side 12:39 Locke: Who is the fastest player you’ve seen in the minors? How does their foot speed stack up against Billy Hamilton? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: Hamilton definitely. Buxton is probably #2. Having trouble thinking of another at that level right now 12:40 John Dillinger: Hey Kylie, how would you compare a college bat like Griffin Conine to a guy like Michael Conforto entering his draft year? Do you think Conine can be that kind of player? Thanks. 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: Possibly, the raw tools are comparable. Conforto’s advantage was patience and feel for hitting, which isn’t really a tool, but is the separator. He also may have had a little more bat speed 12:42 Bill Wojowski: Can Alek Thomas be the first Illinois HS draft pick to go in the 1st round since Jayson Werth? 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: Has a chance! More skills than tools so a bit unusual for a prep hitter, but there are teams that see him on the fringes of the first round right now. 12:43 Dunkin’ Donuts: What percentage chance does Braves OF prospect Drew Waters have of becoming a star? I have read ceiling comparisons to Mike Trout. 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: That is not remotely close 12:44 Ryan W.: I love me some draft chat, while Ive enjoyed the 2018 coverage, wondering if our local kid pitcher Hunter Barco has a chance to go 1st overall in 2019? 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: Boy are you gonna like this article: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-draft-rankings-2018-2019-and-2020/ 12:44 RyanW: Any thoughts on Tristan Gray? Seems like he has some interesting hitter traits, and played fine for NYPL last year, for whatever little that’s worth 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: Bat first 2B without a ton of other tools 12:45 Carson Cistulli: Kiley McDaniel, making his weekly Wednesday appearance….On a Friday? This commenter is intimidated-dare I say threatened- Yes threatened, by change! 12:46 Svelte Marvin: What can you tell us about Julio Pablo Martinez, or can you point me to anything you’ve written/seen about him? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: I believe Eric has seen him. I have not. Sounds like he’s a plus runner that can play CF with 50-55 raw power but some question if it’s a 4 or 5 bat. Everyday upside for sure but not a slam dunk. 12:47 John Dillinger: Is Orelvis Martinez the top July 2 free agent or just one of the top guys? Where do you currently rank him? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: He’s one of the 5 hitters that stood out to me most at the MLB event. Luckily after day one when I showed my list to a couple scouts, they said I had it lined up pretty well, since I hadn’t done a ton of prep work before getting down there 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: Those hitters: Diego Cartaya, C, VZ Noelvi Marte, SS, DR Marco Luciano, SS, DR Orelvis Martinez, SS, DR there’s a bunch of candidates for the 5th spot, but I’ll go with the guy that ran a 6.37 in the 60: Alexeis Azuaje, SS, DR 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: Best Arms: Osiel Rodriguez, RHP, Cuba Richard Gallardo, RHP, VZ Sandy Gaston, RHP, Cuba Abraham Calzadilla, RHP, VZ you can either take projection with Jerming Rosario, RHP, DR or now velo with Starlyn Castillo, RHP, DR 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: I would assume/already know all of those players get $500K on July 2nd or soon thereafter 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: and there’s more than a couple millionaires in there, probably a few over $2M. A couple top guys weren’t at the event, but not that many. 12:51 CJL: Any thoughts on Max Marusak yet? That video going around on his bat speed is insane 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: 80 runner with some contact skills, pretty new on the scene, in the top 5 rounds right now but opinions vary 12:52 Lance: Any reports from UCLA so far this spring? I see Toglia and Strumpf have put up good numbers. 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Heard RHP Ryan Garcia was really good this week. They have a crazy 2019 draft class. May be the best in the country. 12:53 Billy Beane: You know anything about Dairon Blanco, out of Cube? The things I know about him: He is fast. 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: That is accurate 12:53 Brad: If I got really drunk, could I do a fangraphs chat one of these weeks? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Eno? 12:53 Rhys: What are your thoughts on Shane McClanahan? Is there any chance he goes 1-1? 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: Good news there’s video and a report to answer this question on a brand spanking new article here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/draft-notes-in-person-scouting-scuttle… 12:54 Babe Lincoln: What don’t you like about how UVA develops its players? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: They have an awful track record of developing pro pitchers despite getting lots of the best recruits. The squat thing all their pitchers do is really silly and there’s some anecdotal evidence it’s neutral at best. Their hitters don’t swing for HR until the last round in BP and most of them do the Stanford thing to try to hit grounder/liners to the opposite field. Their best hitter squared to bunt in the 1st inning of the game I was at. Maybe this helps you win in college but lots of schools win by helping the kids develop for pro ball, too. 12:57 Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Do you remember your thoughts on Jhaylin Ortiz when he was signed for $4 mil as a 16 year old? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: Seemed rich to me at the time 12:57 Danny: Do you think Dillon Tate will be a SP? 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: It’s moving that way now 12:58 David: Is there a quantifiable way to assess the increased injury risk associated with pitching prospects vs hitting prospects? That is, a pitching prospect is x% riskier/volatile than a hitting prospect, all other things equal? 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: It would be some version of a WAG if you don’t have the data that teams have 12:58 AT: FG projects the Yankees to 94 wins, the Red Sox to 93. Are the two teams essentially even, or does one of them have a large advantage? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: Standard deviation of a win projection is something like 8, I believe. So, yes. Big error bars this early. 12:59 Harry Reynolds: Thanks for sharing the Mason Denaburg video. I really like his delivery – smooth, easy, low impact and repeatable. When scouting, how much do you put into a player’s delivery and how that projects going forward? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: For high school pitchers it may be the most important thing 12:59 Jack: What are the odds that one of Rocker, Hankins, or Weathers pitches at Vanderbilt next year? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: I would say about 15% 1:00 JP: Why didn’t Bryse Wilson make the 45ers just outside the top 100? Dude has been lights out. 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: He is a 45 just outside the top 100, so you can include him if you want. Not the highest upside type that could make a huge jump next year but could certainly end up on the back half with another good season. We were trying to isolate more huge upside guys and less well known guys. Wilson got 7 figures out of HS then performed really well in a full season league, so you can assume he’s good without us. 1:01 Hey: Answer my other questions 1:02 Kiley McSpaniel: Woof! 1:02 Ricky Bobby: If you ain’t first, you’re last 1:03 Lt Kaffee: If you gave an order that Santiago wasn’t to be touched, and your orders are always followed, then why would Santiago be in danger? Why would it be necessary to transfer him off the base? 1:03 Hans Gruber: Between Trammalamadingdong (Trammel) and Carter Kieboom, who has the most upside? 1:04 80 Food Day: What would I include? 1:04 Peter in St Pete: Is it true that if you don’t use it, you lose it? 1:04 butts69: human teeth parade 1:05 Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t even gotten out of the first page of questions yet, you guys really were battling to be the last questions, so you all win 1:06 Mister Puppy: BASEBALL IS ON 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: And with that I’m off. See you guys next Wednesday. Try to stay out of trouble. Especially you, butts69.