Kiley McDaniel Chat – 2/28/18

12:02

Kiley McDaniel: Hello. It is chat time.

12:03

tim815: Agree or disagree.

12:03

Kiley McDaniel: Hmmm. Disagree.

12:03

Waltharius: Is there any update on Hankins’ injury?

12:04

Kiley McDaniel: Not really. It’s shoulder soreness, as expected and also rumored before the start where he walked off the mound. He’ll rehab it and probably be fine. Hopefully is back on the mound in like a month or two and has some time to prove he’s healthy. Don’t think it’s a long-term thing.

12:04

ECinDC: Fangraphs ranks Carter Kieboom a lot higher than other sites, what do you all see in him that others are missing?

12:05

TF Fredrik: Have you figured out the puzzle of why people are so interested in comparing your ranks to those of others sites? I for the life of me cant understand why people care so much about ordinal rankings by one site compared to another. You are different evaluators that have your own views, ideas, rubrics, cognitive processes etc. etc. It is all information and should be gathered as such instead of argued or asked, why are you so low on so and so?

12:05

Kiley McDaniel: The first chat questions asked and answered by you people. Congrats.

12:05

Merl: Blurt out YOUR top 3 farm systems. Go!

12:05

Kiley McDaniel: Probably ATL, CHW, SD in some order, right? I think so?

12:06

Margot: Any renewed optimism on Amir Garrett after showing 95-97 the other day?

12:06

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t hear if the breaking ball was better, but more arm speed usually does improve the breaking ball a bit

12:06

Trevor: What’s Madrigal’s MLB ETA? 2020?

12:07

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 2019. The little dudes reach mature quickly, the opposite of big lumbering sluggers that usually take some time to sync everything. I could see him go in the top 5-10 picks, sign, go to full season ball, then instructs/AFL. Start in Hi-A in 2019 and if he keeps hitting and the team needs a 2B, be up at the end of the year. This is a big reason why clubs are on him: high floor, will move quickly, standout tools in bat control/speed/defense.

12:07

Billy: Braves list on the way?

12:09

Kiley McDaniel: Yes! Was basically done weeks ago but some more pressing stuff came up (and I think I wrote like 15 things since then, so I haven’t been slacking). And you already have the top 10 with reports and tools on the top 100, so that’s most of what you guys care about I’d think. Would guess it will go up Friday but we’ll see.

12:09

Margot: What’s your guess on how the Senzel SS experiment ends?

12:09

Kiley McDaniel: Is better than people expect, plays there some, CIN has someone better in the bigs so he doesn’t play there more than once a week or on emergency basis

12:09

RaysFanHere: Hi Kiley, thanks for taking time to answer our questions! Always enjoy your chats. What are the odds that Arroyo, Adames and Bauers hit well enough, and Banda gets his ERA closer to his FIP to make the Rays hang around? Or at least become something good in 2019?

12:11

Kiley McDaniel: I mean pretty low that four rookies all hit their ceiling in their first year. But given the depth of upper level prospects, that gives the Rays high variability in season, which means they could win 70 or grab a wild card.

12:11

Prospect fan: Any 2019s at the DR showcase?  Also when SS guys are scouted, are there some looks as to who could maybe be a pitcher?  I always seem to read in reports of some pitchers that they were initially scouted as SS. Is that still true at age 15/16?  Or does that mostly pertain to 12/13?

12:12

Kiley McDaniel: Just 2018. MLB is trying to discourage early deals, so they won’t hold showcases for 2019’s until well after J2 2018. The conversion guys are almost only guys that sign for $250K or less, for a variety of reasons, so they usually aren’t the names you hear on J2 with the big bonuses.

12:12

Aaron: Braves sign Moustakas and package Riley and SP prospects for Archer. Any chance?

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: Can’t imagine they will and don’t think that’s a good idea, either. No reasons to cash in chips until the window is closer to open. ATL has been acting like that’s their plan, as well. It also makes things easier on a new GM to get to know his system for a year before making a super splashy deal and Anthopolous lucked out that waiting a year for a big trade/FA signing looks like the most prudent move with this group anyway.

12:14

Hunter Hayes: Oh my gosh!! You totally look like me!

12:14

Kiley McDaniel: LOL there’s a scout that always tells me this so I hope this is him and this opinion hasn’t spread

12:14

A big dumb idiot: Can you tell us a little bit about Orelvis Martinez?

12:15

Kiley McDaniel: Kinda typical big bonus J2 shortstop. Loose, wiry frame with bat speed and some now power, still plenty of work to be done with polish at the plate, power in games, etc. Not a bad SS but physical projection seems like it’ll move him off of SS, in which case the power probably jumps. Just a lot of guessing off of a nice base of athleticism and tools to start with. It’s rare that a J2 report is anything better than that–Vlad Jr, etc. doesn’t come every year.

12:16

Wes: Yankees obviously had depth to deal from, but do you think they could regret dealing Solak/Widener for Drury?

12:17

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think so. Both prospects are nice, higher probability, lower upside guys that are a year or two away and NYY already has had a 40-man crunch multiple years and is starting above average regulars at most spots. Drury is MLB ready, versatile, fits the short term need on a contender and is maybe as good as Solak becomes anyway.

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: Essentially shuffling fringe pieces around and losing some control for certainty when that fits the org need

12:18

Mike: Are you planning on doing a write-up/ranking this spring of ’18-’19 J2 prospects?

12:19

Kiley McDaniel: Yes! Eric and I already have 70+ names in a database for 2018, I have tons of video and reports from last week, projected teams/bonuses, etc. and a handful of names for 2019 as well. There will be a sortable board but the 2019 formal stuff likely won’t come for awhile, aside from some references to the top guys, likely in an intro to the 2018 board or in chats

12:19

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Are you the chatter who, a few weeks ago, took a couple minute break to give the pupper a belly rub? If so, my belly scratch loving doggo would like to commend you on having your priorities straight.

12:20

MD: golden retriever or husky?

12:20

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, that was me. Scout is a golden/lab mix and she’s staring at me right now, probably mad that I’m not currently scratching her belly.

12:21

Ben: If given the option of having the 10th overall pick or two 2nd round picks which would you choose?

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: 10th

12:22

David: Do you think it’s smarter for teams to allocate the majority of their international bonus money to 1 player, or sign 20 lesser prospects for the price of that 1 player?

12:23

Kiley McDaniel: I think for many orgs with a good track record in Latin America the ROI will be higher with the 20 guys, but that also eats up limited DSL roster spots. If you have one team, that’s most of the spots you have, so you have to release some of those guys within a year to make room for next year’s guys and the low bonus guys don’t pop in one year. So, short of having 4 DSL teams, orgs have to balance these things.

12:23

Jared: What kind of bonus should a 20th round draft pick expect? What’s the highest bonus someone after, say, round 15, could expect to get?

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: It varies, but generally past the 11-15th round area, 99.9% of kids that sign get $125K or less.

12:24

Draft Junkie: Any fresh news on Nolan Gorman and is he still in the running for the top pick for the Tigers?

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: He still rakes and yes

12:25

RyanW: Best 90s one hit wonder?

12:25

Kiley McDaniel: CHUMBAWUMBA 4EVA is what my tattoo reads

12:25

Matt: How much less would a college senior of equal talent project to receive in bonus money as compared to a junior who has more leverage (can return to school)?

12:26

Kiley McDaniel: Like 1/3 or 1/4 as much, roughly speaking, if we’re in the top 5 rounds.

12:26

Gerb : Did Yandy have too many PAs to qualify for the prospect list? If so do you think he would he have been on/near the T100 ?

12:27

Kiley McDaniel: Yandy graduated but would’ve been on the honorable mention (101-135 or so) if he hadn’t: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-2017s-graduated-prospects/

12:27

walewander: Do you have serious reservations about the Tigers four prospect RHPs? They seem to be ranked lower at FG than elsewhere.

12:28

Kiley McDaniel: They all have strength and weaknesses, but power arms that haven’t performed at the upper levels and are under 23…there’s just a lot of risk, especially if there isn’t knockout, loud plus stuff to justify ranking them higher

12:28

Andy: Okay, so Tyler O’Neil is jacked.  Do you think he is a viable 4th OF or is he too ‘big’ to play CF?

12:29

Kiley McDaniel: I think we are the high guys on O’Neill. He’s made real improvements the last few years: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

12:29

j: Who is better long-term: Brandon Drury or Miguel Andujar?

12:29
12:29

Kiley McDaniel: Andujar is the answer

12:29

Bret: How it would it impact Danny Jansen’s development if he spent a lot of time this season as the Jays #2 catcher behind Russell Martin?

12:30

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think it would be that negative. Jansen isn’t a young toolsy guy that needs a ton of polish. That said, no young player really thrives in a backup role, but catching timeshares seem to becoming more split roles these days

12:31

Arn Anderson: Cristian Pache. I’ve seen the defense, and it’s legit. But I’m just not seeing the bat….at least not in regards to this power he’s projected to grow into. He strikes me as Juan Pierre, which can be a quality piece on a team. Am I just missing it?

12:31

Kiley McDaniel: He’s way bigger than Juan Pierre, with a lot more power and he’s the same level speed/athlete with more size. There’s a ton more in there, but who knows how much of it he gets to

12:32

Matt: Has the launch-angle revolution impacted any level of baseball besides MLB? If not, do you expect it to?

12:33

Kiley McDaniel: Talked about it some on this week’s yet to be released podcast w/Carson. That was always the approach in Latin America in the workout culture and it’s now spreading from MLB to colleges and some HS players. Seems like reliever valuation is spreading to the draft as well. Things are moving quicker, in terms of adjustments and integration, than they used to.

12:33

Raj: How have your views on AJ Puk changed since his last year at Florida?

12:33

Kiley McDaniel: A lot. CH is better, body is much better. Consistency is there. Kinda shocked it all happened so fast.

12:33

Bernard Gilkey: You ranked Vlad Jr. the 3rd best prospect. Is it nuts to prefer him over Acuna?

12:35

Kiley McDaniel: Not nuts but the margin for error with a guy (Acuna) that’s ready and performed at a historic level in AAA and can play CF vs. a guy that’s probably a 1B that hasn’t yet learned to lift the ball regularly and hasn’t gotten out of A-Ball…you gotta really nail Vlad’s bat/power and be a little low on Acuna to justify it. Not crazy, though.

12:35

That Guy in Detroit: I’ve seen Kelenic as high as #10 in projected drafts.  Do you think there is a way he moves higher?

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: I think 8-12 is about as high as he can get. This draft has a lot of depth. We keep our rankings updated (privately) and after the top group of 10-11 guys, there’s almost another 20 that seems to be in a tier. That’s unusual at this stage, but probably also follows that there isn’t a clear top player, either. And obviously things will be different on draft day and even more different 10 years from now

12:37

Derek: Why won’t anyone give me their top prospect for Realmuto? Don’t they know how badly I need this after the Stanton fiasco?

12:37

Kiley McDaniel: Sup DJ. I don’t think you’re the only one thinking this.

12:37

That Guy in Detroit: Do the Brewers have the goods to potentially pry Fulmer away from the Tigers?  What would a fair package look like?

12:38

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think anyone is paying retail for Fulmer until he’s healthy for a half season

12:38

jay_B: Thoughts on Maples as a high-leverage reliever?

12:39

Kiley McDaniel: V intriguing stuff, made our 45s we love article in the close-to-the-majors relievers section (good list for fantasy people in deep leagues to check out): https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-some-lower-ranked-prospects-we-l…

12:39

Ron Swanson’s Mustache: How much has Travis Swaggerty helped his stock in the first few weeks of the season?  Think he could be in play for ATL at 8?

12:39

Kiley McDaniel: He’s one of the guys that’s moving up. More than a few teams have him in the top 10. Could be a fit there.

12:39

CamdenWarehouse: you know can do chats with the dog on your lap

12:40

Kiley McDaniel: That’s where my computer is!

12:40

Poor Man Quisenberry: Why arent there more JUCO guys drafted top 5 rounds? Lesser talent or Lesser negotiating leverage? Organizations prefer to sign college seniors for cheap w similar skillsets or results against better competition?

12:40

Kiley McDaniel: Just talent. JC’s are down this year, only a couple guys look to be top 5 rounds quality and none top 2 rounds like last year when we knew Pearson and Little were premium guys in the fall.

12:41

rschutzpah: Will baseball ever allow all draft picks to be traded at some point?

12:41

Kiley McDaniel: I think it’ll be something that will need to be included in a group of things one side really needs. Doesn’t seem like either side is motivated to make this happen, but it also seems inevitable. May be the next CBA, may be in 20 years but I’d expect it eventually

12:42

Gus : Is Jorge Guzman a potential front line starter or are you worried about his secondary offerings?

12:42

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a small chance he could be, but that’s more than 99% of pitchers in the minors. More on him here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

12:42

Mike: If Travis Swaggerty continues to hit anywhere near this level the rest of the way (OBP + more pop), does he sneak into the discussion at the top of the draft?

12:43

Kiley McDaniel: Probably not the top 5, but I could see him going 6-10

12:43

Eric: Over the weekend on Twitter you said McClanahan, Gorman, Liberatore, Hankins, and Singer were all the guys in the running to go 1-1. No more high school and no college bats? Madrigal? Conine? Kelenic?

12:46

Kiley McDaniel: I definitely didn’t say that. If you define it as anyone with a chance to go 1-1, the group is like 10 guys right now. If you mean the favorites if the draft was today, there’s a top tier of 4 at the moment, from what I’ve gathered: Gorman, McClanahan, Madrigal, Rolison, with Rolison seeming to be the last of that group but trending up. Singer has been well below his best self this spring and that becomes more worrisome when his delivery/slot is a little unusual and him not signing due to a physical issue out of HS.

12:46

Beau: Is Jeff Belge still a decently regarded prospect now that he’s at St. Johns?

12:46

Kiley McDaniel: Hasn’t really delivered on the big promise, but big dude with average stuff from the left side and some ceiling, so a top 3 round guy for 2019.

12:47

Stovokor: Anything on Luis Gonzalez‘ kid in SF system?

12:47

Kiley McDaniel: Big power, but probably a 1B and R/R, so really needs to hit

12:47

Jeff: Thoughts on Triston Casas and John Malcolm? Can either survive a move to LF or RF as a pro?

12:48

Kiley McDaniel: Casas probably just 1B, Malcolm better shot for OF. Casas is a fringe 1st rounder right now due to plus plus raw, Malcolm more middle rounds

12:48

Da Bum: Out of curiosity, how often do you attend a game and see a competitor (minors guy for another website)? When this happens, do you sit next to each other and compare notes or keep your distance?

12:49

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty common. Different levels of interaction with each person, some sit and compare notes and catch up, others more of a head nod and keep to themselves.

12:49

Wes: What position does Julio Pablo Martinez end up playing and does the fine affect who he signs with?

12:49

Kiley McDaniel: CF. Nope. Would expect the Rangers.

12:49

Walt: If it were permitted, would having 4 DSL teams be a worthwhile investment?

12:50

Kiley McDaniel: Absolutely. I know some orgs have their int’l dept bugging the GM about it currently. You’d have to be pretty bad/unlucky to not have a solidly positive ROI from that investment, it’s just a longer time horizon to payoff. Some teams add a team when they’ve gone over the spending limits, then get rid of it after they go back to signing normal levels of players, but now you can’t go wild so I wouldn’t expect to see that.

12:51

Billy Beane: Am I crazy to think that if you’re a fringe bat position player with a strong arm, you should immediately try and learn how to play catcher? Like, not everyone could do it obviously, but if you’re like an okay defensive 3rd baseman who hits like a middle infielder, you’re not making it to the bigs any other way.

12:52

Kiley McDaniel: That’s common, especially with fringe college types that may only get drafted if they can catch. I know scouts tried it with Michael Chavis in HS so it isn’t just fringy guys. Problem is catching is really hard and it also demands a specific arm action/exchange, so some guys arms play down in that setting. Like some guys throw 95 on the mound and have an average arm in the OF, then plus at SS…there’s some mechanical things about the positions that do weird things to arm strength, mainly body position and kinetic chain and all that. Very specific to the player.

12:52

Billy Beane: AJ Puk also throws a 2 seam fastball now. Dude is going to be in MLB mowing people down this year.

12:53

Kiley McDaniel: The sad part is that we all know pitching prospects can fall as quick as they rise. Fingers crossed

12:53

Colby: Seems like you guys are pretty high on Vilade. Could he be a mid-season top 50? 100?

12:54

Hans Gruber: Some scouts were “unimpressed” with Ohtani’s pitching debut. Does he really have “ace” type stuff? Does he eventually stick to pitching only? Am I overusing quotation marks?

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: It was his first spring outing please stop this

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: And also it was pretty good anyway

12:54

Colby: Hunter Renfroe a 40 FV guy now? Didnt see him on any of your former prospect coverage

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: 45

12:54

Ricky: How will Ronald Guzman’s bat translate to the big leagues?

12:54

Kiley McDaniel: I’m a little lower than Eric, but he’s likely a 45 or 50 FV

12:54

Hans Gruber: Alex Verdugo: the Dodger’s version of Jesse Winker, or something more exciting (more power)?

12:55

Kiley McDaniel: More athletic, better hitter and defender, but not super different from far away, both bat first corner guys without huge power

12:55

Vic: At what level are minor leaguers given access to advanced reports on opposing pitchers/lineups?

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: More than a few teams give Low-A clubs some basic stuff about tendencies, like a one-sheeter for the series.

12:56

Colby: How do you feel about a Kyle Muller Breakout this year?

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: Feeling good, thing the arm speed is all the way back now (95 in some training stuff off a mound a few weeks ago via Driveline) and he looked good late last year in Danville

12:56

Ben: TB catcher Chris Bette seemed to be fairly well thought of coming out of the draft. Obviously injuries have derailed him so far. What do you think his chances are to becoming a productive MLB catcher and what is his ceiling?

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: I’d move him to 1B and let him just focus on hitting

12:57

Nick: I know you already have the 2019 draft rankings up, but are there any of those guys exceeding expectations so far? It looks like Strumpf and Toglia are off to strong starts.

12:58

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, I’ve been hyping the UCLA 2019 class for months now and they’ve all come out of the gates fast. Tyler Dyson, Josh Jung, Matt Canterino all looking good early as well.

12:58

WarBiscuit: Thoughts on Casey Mize?

12:58

Kiley McDaniel: Also rising, more than a few teams have him in the top 10. If he stays healthy all year and the medical checks out, he’s probably going top 10.

12:58

Johnny : What makes baseball fun for you?

12:59

Kiley McDaniel: The angry commenters

12:59

ECinDC: Fair answer, thanks for not being too snarky

12:59

Kiley McDaniel: No problem

12:59

Nate: Does Madrigal have the arm to move to third or is his future up the middle?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: Plus defensively at 2B, can play a fill-in SS. Could probably play any position but no reason to.

1:00

Nate: How concerning is Madrigal’s injury?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: Not very. The only real weakness to his game is power and now when he comes back you can always say there’s more coming.

1:00

Billy Beane: Question

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: Answer

1:00

Am I in the right room?: Is this where I complain about prospect chats or HOF chats?

1:01

Kiley McDaniel: Complain about anything here! I’d like to hear everyone’s thoughts on gun control

1:01

J: I know it’s early, but given the Rockies history with football players have they been connected to Rocker?

1:01

Kiley McDaniel: Eh it’s more athletic position players than pitchers and their heavy preference on pitchers is sinkerballers, given the home park, rather than guys with dads that played football

1:02

Careagan: Chiley Kat

1:02

Kiley McSpaniel: Woof!

1:02

Kiley McDaniel: Feels like we’re in range

1:02

Armandus: Blurt out YOUR top 3 Bionicles. Go!

1:02

Billy Beane: You should have three sons and name them Kiley, Mac, and Daniel.

1:02

Rockie Dangerfield: What if they replaced the basepaths with moving sidewalks that could randomly change direction between innings?

1:02

butts69: human teeth parade

1:02

Kiley McDaniel: There it is.

1:02

Kiley McDaniel: See you guys next week





Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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