Kiley McDaniel Chat – 4/16/18

Kiley McDaniel: Okay here I am, you’ll get me for about an hour then I’m off to Gainesville to see Singer/Mize with a dash of Jonathan India

Paul: ACUNA BOMB

Jorge: ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA ACUÑA……….sorry have a good day

Just A Dude: Did you hear the sound of Acuña Jr.’s first homerun from wherever you’re sitting?

Jordan: Juan Soto, is there anything he can’t do

Kiley McDaniel: well seems like his main sin is not being acuna

Len: Any new buzz in the top 10 since your mock and rankings updates last week?

Kiley McDaniel: yep, hearing 2-3-4 will go Swaggerty-Bohm-Madrigal now, with Cincy at 5 being the first wild card where people don’t really have a beat on it. Bart seems to be the favorite with Singer as the cut rate option. Then after that it’s still shrug emoji

Philip: Austin Allen and Josh Naylor are off to huge starts, have you heard anything from scouts that would suggest there projections have changed?

Kiley McDaniel: I know SD was working with Naylor to improve his use of his lower half in his swing and he always had big power, so that may be what’s behind the breakout, but it’s still early if I don’t have video to compare that it looks notably different

Beans : Anything on Jason Schroeder in Washington? Heard big velo

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, if he didn’t have some head violence in the delivery, he would’ve been in the later stages of the top 55. 90-95, above curve, good frame with some projection. late 2nd-4th area right now

Chris: Haseley and Moniak are off to dreadful starts for the Phillies in the FSL.  Is Moniak close to a lost hope at this point and what are your thoughts on Haseley?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw them both yesterday. Haseley still looks like the same guy to me, but he’s smoothed out the swing a bit (more on that later, since I have UVA and pro video to compare), largely a CF/LF tweener with 5 hit/power and 55 run. Probably a 50 when he gets to the big leagues, maybe a 55 for a year or two, still a 45 FV right now until he performs a little more. Probably never gets in the top half of a top 100, but could be on the back half eventually.

Kiley McDaniel: Moniak looked great on D as usual but the swing was very linear and lacked pop, was late on decent stuff more than I’d like. I’ll see him again and check in to see if he’s making progress or this is just what he is now.

Jack: I don’t hear it often anymore but when someone brings up concerns about a Latin player’s “Real Age” — what percentage of the time is that concern valid, and how often is it just a dog whistle?

Kiley McDaniel: It used to be prevalent, even in 7 figure signings and now it barely happens at all, especially among the heavily vetted big money types. It’s not necessarily dog whistling, more lazy and not keeping up on the trends, which obviously not every fan can do. And if a big leaguer had a name/age change 10 years ago but it gets mentioned on the broadcast, it seems just as prevalent to someone not paying close attention.

Gest : How concerned are you on Albies’ ability to hit right handed pitchers? Should turning around 100 from Syndergaard be a hint, or is it more about breaking balls? Or his lefthanded swing?

Kiley McDaniel: Some thought his swing was too big for a little guy his whole pro career, most thought he couldn’t get to what power he had against high level pitching…and we’re talking like special assistant very experienced top evaluators. The best eval I got on Albies was (paraphrasing) “he has no comps so who can I compare him too when I want to say he can’t do something or his swing is too big? Just let him play in the big leagues and we’ll find out then what he can’t do.”

Kiley McDaniel: And so far, what he can’t do appears to be a very short list

Anthony: How confident are you that Austin Beck hits enough to be a viable everyday player?

Kiley McDaniel: Big questions from last March when he exploded on the scene. They’re all still there. He’s top half of a top 100 once people are convinced he can hit but I’m on the more doubtful side in his case

Ian: which collegian prospects are the mets looking at since the top three hitters won’t make it them?

Kiley McDaniel: Bart and Rolison are the two college names we’ve heard connected to them (as mentioned in our mock from last week: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/) along with Liberatore as the prep name they’re on. Bart may not get there.

Hinkie: To the best of your knowledge, do the Phillies still rank the top 3 college bats as:  1. Bohm, 2. Madrigal, 3. Swaggerty ?  And do they put Bohm in front of Madrigal more because of organizational need, or do they believe Bohm is just a better prospect than Madrigal ?

Kiley McDaniel: To our knowledge, yes. No, purely on the eval. It would be insanely dumb to draft for need that high. Just get the best player and hope you have to deal with the problem of having too many good players. The 3rd and 7th best players in the draft may have a market value difference of $10 million or more within a year, so saving a little money on draft day should be a tiebreaker at most.

J: Do you think Rocker ends up getting overslot value given the attrition of other prep arms like Hankins and Vasil?

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t tell the future and I don’t think he’s formally asked for that yet, but there’s lots of teams in the 7-15 area that are interested. He could slide ahead of Stewart with him fading a bit the last few weeks.

Oakland: Why is college baseball so different than pro, and why don’t we hear about college teams playing “pro-style baseball” the same way we hear of football teams that run a “pro-style offense”?

Kiley McDaniel: lol you must not have heard my rant about UVA coaching in the chat two weeks ago. It exists and it’s not hard to see (west coast school tend to bunt way more than SEC/ACC), scouts complain about it but it doesn’t necessarily obscure the talent as much as limited football schemes do.

Pablo: On the prospect board, does ETA refer to when you expect the players to get a first taste of MLB or when you expect them to exhaust prospect eligibility?

Kiley McDaniel: reach MLB

Towel: Do you guys ever change tool grades on a players page? Matt Chapman’s 40 run (fastest or second fastest 3b in baseball by sprint speed), 55 field, 60 arm seems… Outdated

Kiley McDaniel: will happen, but it’s more 2nd half of the MLB season thing. Obviously that are outdated, which is why we put the date on the eval so you know we didn’t write it today

Bodie: What needs to happen for Newcomb to break out? He has looked good today

Kiley McDaniel: Really it’s just control/command. If both are consistently average, he’ll be fine

Eric: Kiley, I know several months back you put out a list of top 2019 draft prospects. Amongst the college bats from that class who has really distinguished himself?

Kiley McDaniel: I smell a dynasty fantasy nerd question

Kiley McDaniel: Okay here’s what eric is referencing: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-draft-rankings-2018-2019-and-2020/

Kiley McDaniel: Rutschman C OSU
Jones SS UNCW
Stott SS UNLV
Toglia RF UCLA

Kiley McDaniel: wouldn’t say those are necessarily the top 4, but they’ve all moved up

Chris Reitsma: Hey Kiley, thanks for doing these. Bruce Zimmermann has been lights out since signing with the Braves in 2017. What sort of profile does he have? He seems like a classic senior sign/soft-tossing lefty who will start to struggle as he faces more advanced hitting, but is there anything more in there? Hard to find much info on him.

Kiley McDaniel: More average stuff than soft tosser, so there’s a shot, but will really need to perform

Billy Beane: When I am thinking about a low level guy who is more or less a toolshed (I’m thinking Austin Beck or Lazarito) does it become more appropriate to scout the stat line?

Kiley McDaniel: To a degree. I mean Beck is making progress if he’s got a non-BABIP inflated 100 or higher wRC+ but it could still be, at the low levels, a toned-down contact swing or just sitting on mistake pitches, etc.

Johnny Boy : How would you compare Matt Liberatore to Hunter Barco?

Kiley McDaniel: Barco is the top prep pitcher for 2019 and they’re along the same lines. Barco has buzz to go top 10 next year and I’ll probably see him a few times this summer since he’s just a few hours from me

Anthony: Eric said yesterday he’d mock Swaggerty at 2 today. Assuming you’ve heard the same, is that a reflection on Swaggerty’s reputation in the scouting community improving or just that the Giants like him more than most?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean he was hitting poorly when I saw him and a little after that, while he’s now hitting better, so I guess he’s seen a little more positively, but teams are still largely having trouble clearly saying which of those three (and some toss Bart in that group) that they prefer, so it isn’t a wild swing, more than we’ve heard SF prefers him over Bohm (and we already reported they won’t take Madrigal).

Estuve: I know the statcast data pegs Albies as significantly over performing, but maybe he’s just a freaking stud? What is your scouting opinion on this?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean I’ve been leading the Albies bandwagon from the start but *whispers*  he’s probably not a 156 wRC+ true talent hitter

Kiley McDaniel: (Altuve has arguably the best player in baseball last year with a similar skillset and a 160 wRC+)

Kiley McDaniel: I’d set my sights slightly lower than that

Andrew: Ozzie Albies just homered. Acuña and Albies combined are younger than Ichiro, and both have homered today.

Kiley McDaniel: Albies, Acuna and Scout are the spirit animals of my chats

Gregory: Baltimore has a trio of starters that have thrown good outings (Lowther, Bishop, and Baumann). Who’s got the best chance at a fast track.

Kiley McDaniel: I would lean Lowther because he’s lefty and it’s deceptive and he’s always performed

John Oleruds Helmet: Mr Kiley oh honored chatter! oh wisest of prospect knowledge! Please enlighten thou! Who sticks in a future White Sox rotation? Hansen, Cease, Dunning??

Kiley McDaniel: Dunning by far the most likely for me

Marc: What do you make of the Yankees infield in a month? Drury, Andujar, Torres, Walker, Austin, Bird for 3 spots, with Torreyes arguably deserving regular at-bats as well?

Kiley McDaniel: Austin can platoon with some lefties like Bird, Drury is the utility guy. As mentioned above, too many good players is not a problem.

Hunter: What do you get at Chick Fil A?

Kiley McDaniel: suspiciously positive cashiers

moose: any common denominators between guys that find more power when they hit the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: bat control, athleticism, opposite field extra base hits at a young age

Michael: Kind of a strange q but here goes…your colleague yesterday said the yankees are by far the best at developing Ps.  Accepting that not all orgs are equal, shoudn’t amateurs have the right to choose their development and not have it mandated by which team drafts you?  Seems analogous to choosing your college not having it chosen for you.

Kiley McDaniel: Sure but at some point the yankees run out of spots and money and the mets have no players and a bunch of money sooooo

Bryan Daniel Carter: How hard would a player have to throw for you to draft him based soley on arm strength?

Kiley McDaniel: Sits 103-106, touches 110

Mr Bean: You said in the MLB Draft Prospects comment section that Kowar has two 60s. What are they?

Kiley McDaniel: FB and CH

Quadrangular: can you share an Acuña story from your time with the Braves?

Kiley McDaniel: I was seeing him in Low-A when he was fresh off the DL at the end of the season and a pro scout from another team was asking me a bunch of questions about him out of nowhere when he found out I was with the Braves and I was like seems like you like him and he’s like oh yeah (whispers) I think he’s the best guy on the team and I said yeah we knew that last year that’s why you aren’t gonna get him

Dustin: If Joey Wentz carries the solid performance he’s shown so far in A and A+ into AA later this year/next year where do you project him out as a major leaguer?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard his velo has been up a few ticks this spring, planning to get out and see him soon. Could move quickly because the command was there last year

Adam: AJ Preller’s done a great job of rebuilding the Padres farm system, but has he been competent enough constructing his major league rosters during the last few years for Padres fans to have faith in his leadership next time the team has a chance to be successful?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a fair question, don’t think we really know the answer. Very few GMs are well above average at both.

Adam: Can you tell me a little about Lenny Torres Jr and the round he’s projected to go in?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like he’s creeping from comp round into the 1st round. up to 98 mph, flashes a plus hook, some reliever risk

Anonymous : What are your thoughts on Greyson Jenista? Do you see him becoming a 20-25 home run guy?

Kiley McDaniel: Power for 25-30, but not a lot of loft in his swing, so will need to make that adjustment

Josh: Between Swaggerty, Bohm and Madrigal, who do you think has the highest floor and highest ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Floor is Madrigal, ceiling is probably Bohm but it’s pretty close between the three

LeBron is the GOAT: Have you heard even a whisper of Madrigal to Detroit? As a Tigers fan, I’d love it if we occasionally had a good hitting prospect.

Kiley McDaniel: From what I’ve heard it ain’t happenin

Vinícius: Does Seuly Matias K-BB ratio is a concern?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll always swing and miss some, so wouldn’t worry as much with him as others

Alex AnChopoulos: Ronald Acuña: great Brave now or greatest Brave *ever*?

Kiley McDaniel: seems like we’re all being reasonable about acunamania

Mike: IYO … what teams will Bryce Harper and Manny Machado be playing for next season?

Kiley McDaniel: Writing about this soon!

Joe: Who are the Browns picking at #1

Kiley McDaniel: the wrong quarterback, from the sounds of it

Dave: Kiley, it seems like there aren’t a lot of realistic college bats that will be it he picture for the Oakland A’s pick at #9.  If Joey Bart is off the board (along with Bohm, Swaggerty, Madrigal), do you have any sense if a HS bat (Turang,  Scott, Gorman) or a college arm (Singer, McClanahan, Rolison, Gilbert, Kowar) is more likely?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t rule out Stewart/Liberatore/Rocker either

Nathan: Anyone else  along the lines of Nate Pearson or Griffin Canning, who might jump in top 100 lists?

Kiley McDaniel: Adonis Medina will. There’s others but I don’t have the names handy right now

Travis : Still confident in Swaggerty’s swing mechanics? (lower half and hitch)

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve found the internet is really eager to announce hitters have unfixables hitches in their swing and any teenager that throws hard will blow out later today

Trout’s Black Shark Eyes: Good afternoon. Why am I excited about Sixto Sanchez? Enjoy the game between Auburn and the swamp lizards.

Kiley McDaniel: Sixto’s stuff darts all over the place its fun. Should be seeing him soon as well

2-D: Does Elijah Morgan possess a talent for limiting home runs or is that premature to say?

Kiley McDaniel: 70 changeup + 55 command = weird outcomes

Saddest Tiger: Who are your favorite prospects in the Detroit system? Anyone you think could have an impact this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Derek Hill, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers are all interesting 45s with a chance to move ahead of Franklin Perez/Burrows/Manning

(not that) James: I’m here for the Acuña talk.  He and Albies, the AA battery the Braves need.

Kiley McDaniel: wait they’re pitching and catching now?

Jeff: Rank these draft arms: Rocker, Weathers, Liberatore, Childress, Torres, Kloffenstein

Kiley McDaniel: man you’re gonna love our draft rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: What previously unheralded prospect has taken the biggest step forward this season?

Kiley McDaniel: Griffin Canning was a first day draft last year but he’s taken a big step forward

eppler: Jahmai Jones is a poor mans mookie betts – T/F?

Kiley McDaniel: billy i know you have better things to do than this

eppler: Eric keeps hyping trent deveaux- what is there to like there?

Kiley McDaniel: i mean you can ask eric he would seem to be the best source for this

Dave: Kiley, what’s the safer bet for a team drafting in the top 10, that Rolison cleans up his delivery and improves his command or that Gilbert’s fastball bounces back (perhaps he’s over-worked?)?

Kiley McDaniel: I would say Rolison, I never bet on pitchers regaining velo they lost unless there’s a clear injury/mechanical thing

Brad: Is the Rays 5 game win streak for real?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean the games happened what does this even mean oh you mean like the in the multiverse they both won and lost all of those games infinite times

It’s a pro wrestling reference : Lining up your chats the same time Keith Law does his?  This is like the Monday Night Wars

Kiley McDaniel: your name really saved this reference that i didn’t get

Jack: What’s the lowest realistically Singer could fall? No chance he makes it into the 20’s right?

Kiley McDaniel: don’t think so

Tom: I know it’s not a fair comparison, but is Eric Pardinho as advanced as Julio Urias was at the same age?

Kiley McDaniel: someone once said that’s not a fair comparison so i’d go with them

Kiley McDaniel: and no, urias was crazy advanced for his age

Len: Highest spot India could go?

Kiley McDaniel: Could get into the teens

Isaac Paredes: if you had one sentence to explain paredes hype what would it be

Kiley McDaniel: there’s isaac paredes hype?

Scout’s uncle: When are you going to the DR next?

Kiley McDaniel: oh i know who’s asking this

Dave: Kiley, if the Reds don’t take Kelenic, what do you think are the chances he makes it to the A’s at #9?

Kiley McDaniel: pretty decent shot

Dave: Kiley, how far has Nander De Sedas fallen and can he get himself back up before the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: i think he should go to school, he hasn’t looked good this spring

Bored Employee: If Ozzie hits 23 home runs this year he will have exceed his total for the rest of his professional career.

Kiley McDaniel: according to my laminated out of control albies hype chart he should do that before the end of business today along with balancing the budget

Pickle Nick : Any reliever risk with Rocker (I mean more than the typical HS pitcher)?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really, he throws a lot of strikes for a guy with that kind of stuff

John: Could Greyson Jenista sneak into the top 10?

Kiley McDaniel: more 20s is what we’re hearing

Aiden: Youngest player you’ve ever been requested to scout?

Kiley McDaniel: If you go to a trainer’s workout in the DR to watch 15/16 year olds, they’ll sneak a few of the top 14 year olds out there and I’ve seen some 13 year olds not look too out of place with the almost-eligible kids.

Bored Employee: You didn’t exactly answer the Albies switch-hitting question though. He has a career 212 wRC+ against lefties and a 98 against righties. Admittedly, a 98 wRC+ from a 21 year old in the big leagues is impressive on its own, but what do you think has led to the drastic difference in results?

Kiley McDaniel: The statistically significant amount of PA for L/R splits to indicate talent is multiple big league seasons, so I didn’t answer it b/c it wasn’t a smart question

Slick Rick Hahn: Alek Thomas’s dad is our strength coach and I am getting a college bat at 4 for sure, any chance I can push Thomas to my 2nd round pick? Cold weather HS player but he seems to be ranked higher than my pick on every board. Worth going underslot at 4?

Kiley McDaniel: late 20s, early 30s there’s multiple teams on him, so it’ll cost you but the TCU commit may help a bit

Andy: So, not to throw a lazy comp on Albies… but would Eckstein + talent be adequate?  Ecks swing always looked high effort for a guy his size.  Difference is that Albies has enough talent not to NEED such a big swing, right?

Kiley McDaniel: we’ve reached the ridiculous comp part of the chat

Scotttttttttt: How is it decided which prospects are graded?  For instance in the White Sox system Kade McClure is not graded, but seems to have more upside than some of the other players in the Sox system that have grades.  I’m just wondering at which point a player becomes grade eligible? Is it on hype alone?  Or can a player perform his way into becoming a graded prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: and we’re seamlessly transitioning into the earnestly condescending segment

CesKKKK: Bart’s swing and miss is normally something that would scare the Mets off.  I really don’t see them on him at 6.  Singer or Gilbert more likely.

Kiley McDaniel: and now the draft prognosticator who looked at a player’s statline for 9 seconds and would like to correct us

Dave: Kiley, it’s interesting to see the A’s linked to Joey Bart given that they already have a very good catching prospect in the system with Sean Murphy.  Is Bart just that much better than Murphy that the A’s would take him anyways, and can you kinda compare the two?

Kiley McDaniel: They aren’t super different, but again, having too many good players isn’t bad and catchers develop in weird ways

Mark: Where does Toglia best profile in the long run – RF or 1B?

Kiley McDaniel: RF for me

Kyle: what % of questions do you get to each chat? asked a few to you and eric each of past 3 weeks and haven’t gotten one answer…. 🙁

Kiley McDaniel: it’s your lucky day!

CesKKKK: Have you seen any of these guys play: Ryan Jeffers, Hayden Sanger, Nick Gaddis and Jordan Verdon?  Thoughts?  top 3 or 4 rounders?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw Jeffers and wrote him up here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-college…

Acunamania: Do the Braves have a shot to sign Bryce or Manny or Clayton?

Kiley McDaniel: they have the money, would think bryce makes most sense

Hank Scorpio: What’s the word on Joe Gray Jr this spring? He has massive tools but is his feel to hit improving?

Kiley McDaniel: 2nd round, has been solid

Hank Scorpio: What do you think of Blaze Alexander? I hear he has helium.

Kiley McDaniel: ranked him high but he looked bad this week when i saw him and more guys are telling me that’s what they’ve been seeing

Tim: Now that a top 4 draft prospects has established themselves, where would you put their FVs? Do any or all of them slide right into the top 100 after the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Tentatively all 55s, but may be some 50s in that group when the board goes up

Bored Employee: Would Acuna or Albies be the better pitcher?

Kiley McDaniel: Acuna has a 70 arm I’d take him

Hank Scorpio: How comparable is Jackson Kowar to Luke Weaver? Both Florida guys with a FB-CH repetoire.

Kiley McDaniel: Kowar is bigger and throws a little harder but not super different

Mike: Kiley give me a stupid poll to vote in #onhere

Kiley McDaniel:

Kiley McDaniel: yes is pulling ahead!

spicyboy: i’m sad kiley

Kiley McDaniel: apparently just watch the braves and you’ll explode with happiness from all the bouncy young talent

Kiley McDaniel: the yes’s have it I will see you guys next week at the normal bat time and bat channel