Kiley McDaniel Chat – 4/24/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is chasing critters in the back yard and I’ll be leaving shortly for a Georgia HS state playoffs double dip, popup RHP Zach Maxwell then popup SS Brennan Milone

Kiley McDaniel: Going to Alabama for at least part of the weekend, seeing rising prep SS Gunnar Henderson tomorrow then the weekend has tons of college options that I’m still sorting through

Kiley McDaniel: If you are already in draft mode and somehow didn’t see yesterday’s mock, here it is: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-1-0-the-top-ten/

Kiley McDaniel: The dope we’re hearing is mostly top 7-10 picks and not a whole lot of specific stuff beyond that because many of the top 10 picks are kinda shrug emoji we’re not sure who will make it to us, so obviously beyond the top 10 there’s even more of that

Kiley McDaniel: And it’s a lot of “their top evaluators are seeing players x y and z” and “their mix appears to be a b and c” because we specifically know what a couple teams up are thinking (either they tell us off the record or aren’t good at obscuring the truth) and that’s as far as they’ve gotten at this point….so we can’t really give you much more than that for most clubs, even picking up high

Kiley McDaniel: And most of the clubs we speak with in the 10 to 20 area are really interested in who we think they have no chance to get, so they can focus resources on the guys they have a shot at.

Andy: What am I missing on Brady McConnell? He has a strong track record as an amateur and is putting up huge numbers in the SEC. Why isn’t he talked about more as a premium draft guy?

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts are not enthusiastic despite some real tools (for some, it’s average to above raw, run, glove, arm) because the hit tool and contact rates are worrisome, but I’m sure there’s a club out there that sees him more as a Cadyn Grenier (we can fix the contact, focus on the tools) type that’s worth high six figures, while many teams have him in the $125-300K area. There’s rumors Minnesota offered about $2M out of HS so wouldn’t be shocked if they liked him a bit more than others now.

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry, been getting a lot of incoming calls the last 15 min. Distractions done for now!

Josh Nelson: After reading about the effects AAA now using the same ball as MLB, how does that impact your scouting of prospects at that level (if at all)?

Kiley McDaniel: I guess we now have a minor league sneak peek of the power spike some guys get in the big leagues, which should make predicting that sort of thing a bit easier

K26dp: Kiley, why is every bullpen terrible?

Kiley McDaniel: What if they made the bullpen out of a black box?

Bride of McDongenhagen: Talk to me about Crisitian Pache.

Kiley McDaniel: Should be laying my eyes on him/Waters and hopefully Luis Robert soon. Sounds like Pache is taking to the swing changes a little slower than some hoped a few years ago, but it may be clicking now. He’s a good case where a non-finished product with plus-plus makeup/athleticism has higher odds of making the changes than a guy with average makeup/athleticism

Kiley McDaniel: Part of the reason we’ve consistently been the high guys on him

Kiley McDaniel: Also a case where old school scouting/investigating the human can supercede what the metrics would tell you

BB&T: Manoah avging 113 ppg over his last 5. At what point does workload begin to hurt the draft position of top 10 College arms?

Kiley McDaniel: Once a week, 113 isn’t a huge worry if he’s got the stamina to maintain mechanics to around that point. I don’t have studies handy, but over the years I’ve found that the days of rest is a far more important variable than pure pitches. Like 113 pitches everytime isn’t a huge issue for a durable/mature pitcher with 6 days of rest, but it is much more of an issue for a less durable/mature pitcher with 4 days of rest. The clearly an issue for any player with any amount of rest/maturity number is 120+ or so?

Kiley McDaniel: This is why relievers blow out/lose arm speed way faster than starters do

Kiley McDaniel: 30 pitches 3 days in a row is obviously way worse than 90 pitches in one outing, so you can extrapolate that out that Japanese/college 6 days of rest situations give you a little more pitch count slack that 4 days of rest in pro ball

Greg: Your Braves blurb in the mock was interesting. If you had Bishop to Texas and all the players ATL likes were gone, who would you have mocked to Atlanta?

Kiley McDaniel: It would be more of a guess at that point and this is a new director, pretty new regime in general. I’d guess college hitter and tiebreaker would be defensive value (similar to the logic for SFG), so Stott would make the most sense

Kiley McDaniel: But it sounds like SFG is more likely to just take the college hitter they like the most and ATL will have a more broad group, could go underslot to beef up the second pick, etc.

Lilith: How likely is it that either Abrams or Witt fall all the way to 7 for the Reds?

Kiley McDaniel: Lets say 15%

Will: Is Cole Tucker going to stick in the majors? He certainly seems like the best SS option that the Pirates have

Kiley McDaniel: He’s super interesting and some of the stuff we were hoping would happen one day but also might never happen…well some of it has already happened

Tommy N.: Why has Nick Lodolo’s stock risen so far? Is he more of a floor guy vs an upside guy?

Kiley McDaniel: Flashes three 60 pitches and 55 command at his best, but he’s been not quite that good lately.

Lilith: Could you compare Bleday to India and Senzel? Is he better coming out of the draft? Worse? I’m having trouble comparing them given that I don’t know how this class compares to 2018 and 2016.

Kiley McDaniel: Offensively speaking, Senzel was something like a 60-65 bat, 50-55 game power at draft time, we had India about 50-55 and 55, Bleday is probably 55-60 and 55. Bleday has the least defensive value of the three, but probably the 2nd best bat, so pretty comparable

Andy: What’s behind Jerrion Ealy trending down? Will he be a tough sign if he falls out of the first round?

Kiley McDaniel: Premium athlete, performed okay over the summer, mechanics have been iffy this spring, you’re paying him if, similar to Pache, you like the makeup/athleticism and think you can fix the rest

Kiley McDaniel: I think there’s some club out there that will meet his price. I would imagine it’s $2M or a bit higher.

Hinkie: I like Aaron Shunk a lot.  What is his draft ceiling?  Could he be another Jonathan India … SEC 3Bman with a big junior season who ends up in the top half of the first round?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to a few scouts about him last weekend when I was at UGA. chance for 5 hit/power, maybe 6 glove at 3B, some want to try him behind the plate, it’s a poor man’s Matt Chapman if you squint a bit. Both had colleges that didn’t optimize the approach/swing for pro ball, so you have to dream to reach the ceiling more than you’d like for a college player. Schunk likely goes 35-60.

D-burg: When should we expect to see the most recent J2 class in games?

Kiley McDaniel: They’ll sign on/around July 2nd, go to either domestic instructs (which we scout) or DR instructs (essentially private), then play in either the DSL or, for the top 15-20 prospects or so, GCL/AZL

Kiley McDaniel: Every now and then you get a Wander Franco/Vlad Jr/Profar that starts in the Appy/Pioneer League, but that’s rare

McKiley: Will the hit tool ever be split into 2? Javy Baez seems to have 80 hand eye coordination but 40ish pitch recognition. Is this accurate?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll break it up into pitch selection, bat control and bat speed/raw power in some reports. Not sure we’ll do that for scouting the amateurs because it’s rare that there’s a big gap between those numbers, but we do have something in mind to illuminate these situations in the future

Logan: Do you think Manoah sticks as a starter? Does he have the pitches to avoid pronounced platoon splits?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a 65 or 70 fastball and breaker, more 45 to 50 CH and command, but that skillset is more valued now than in the past

Daniel: I read one of your old articles about scouting the hit tool from  few years ago. In there you mentioned you would be using the “Peer Grade” to grade the PV of the hit tool, instead of comparing amateur players to current professionals. Based on the looks of THE BOARD, it seems like you no longer do this. Is there any specific reason why you made this change?

Kiley McDaniel: We do a form of it. Raw HS bats get present 20, advanced get present 25, 30 and 35 for college, 40 for the rare super advanced college bat

Kiley McDaniel: if we did a pure peer grade, then Kelenic would be something like a present 70 (how he performed as an amateur relative to his peers) and a future 60 (we think he’ll tap into his power, others will eventually catch up) and that’s pretty confusing

Duder: Maybe you’ve answered this before, but what kind of analytics are available to teams for amateur players before the draft? Or is it all built on scouting?

Kiley McDaniel: College Trackman is really widespread now, something like 60 schools have it. TM or a form of it exists at summer HS showcases and the Cape, some HS games are played a pro/college parks that turn on their TM units. Predraft workouts often have it as well. There’s also lots of medical and sports science stuff, personality tests, etc. that’s team specific. We get glimpses of the TM stuff, especially when there’s a huge outlier and it may impact where we rank a guy, but the team specific stuff stays private until after the draft, when we’ll often hear it quoted, like the anecdote where Nick Solak broke a team’s makeup model, with a score that was higher than they though was possible.

Gary: Looking at your scouting grades for Bleday/Bishop. Seems like the only place Bleday has an advantage is the hit tool (55 v 50) and then a significant advantage with the arm (55 v 35). How much can arm strength play a difference for teams, especially when both guys are locked into corner OF spots anyway?

Kiley McDaniel: At that high of a pick and for corner OF, arm doesn’t really matter at all. The hit tool grade is really important because 45 means there’s some real chance it’s 35 or 40 and he becomes a platoon player and 55 means Bleday is one of the safer bats in the whole class.

Kiley McDaniel: Especially for a corner OF because hit tool implies the odds they get to all their raw power are also higher, so 50 vs 55 is a big differece

Slothrop: Does Vlad have the biggest butt on the top 100?

Kiley McDaniel: We do not have a metric for this, but he’s certainly in the conversation

Teddy: Victor Vodnik has ridiculous numbers so far, and Anthopoulos said today that he’s touching 98 at Rome. How far away is he from helping in the big league pen?

Kiley McDaniel: Years away but the arm strength has really come on. I saw him 92-95 with a 55 breaker in the fall before his draft year and it looked like a Trevor Bauer starter kit. Then during the spring I’m told he was 88-91 and most clubs weren’t paying much attention. Then I saw him 92-95 in instructs after signing and now he’s 94-98 in 2 inning stints for Rome, so I’ll go track him down soon.

Gutshot: Have you gotten a look at Isaiah Campbell this year and if so, what improvements have you noticed?  Future as a starter or bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel: Got rained out of the game I was supposed to see him pitch at Auburn, hope I’m able to track him down before the draft. Is moving into 2nd-3rd round contention, + FB, above breaker, more strikes.

Spider Puig: You said in your mock draft that the Reds prefer a college guy at 7, but of their three preferences, only Lodolo fits that description. Did you mean that if they can’t get Greene or Abrams, they would prefer to go the college route?

Kiley McDaniel: I think they want college all things being equal, but they’ll take the HS player if they deem him clearly better. In this case, the teams ahead of them deemed the HS players clearly better as well.

Logan: Is Will Wilson a realistic option to convert to catcher? Any update on his injury?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like it was some combination of a concussion and/or facial laceration depending on whom you ask. I would imagine he’s back in the next week or so, which I hope is accurate since I’m heading up there to see him soon. Wilson and Schunk are the two guys that I heard clubs saying they want to see catch but haven’t done it before

Jim : Can you tell us something about  Doxakis’ or TJ Sikkema’s stuff?

Kiley McDaniel: Both are solid average stuff and feel, sounds like Sikkema has two 55s and Doxakis has one.

mark: Would recording something like avg pitches seen per AB get at a plate discipline variable?

Kiley McDaniel: Well just seeing pitches on it’s own isn’t great. you need to let bad pitches pass and swing at good pitches…which is harder to identify simply.

Doug: Mets have heat on any names at 12? Saw another outlet mock Zach Thompson to them, but it was mainly off previous tendency.

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be seeing Thompson in a couple weeks and that’s a case where who is in the building will be revealing. There’s almost a 0% chance that the club that draft him will have zero scouts there.

Jenista: Are Players Drafted Last Year elligble to be traded yet?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Blake: Thoughts on what LSU’s Cole Henry has been doing? His offspeed stuff is straight filth.

Kiley McDaniel: Rising on the 2020 board. Hoping to run him down before the draft to set a baseline, since I saw him at this point last year and will def see him next spring

SN: Do you think the Reds could take Busch at 9?

Kiley McDaniel: The Reds pick 7th so I would say very low https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-mlb-draft-signing-bonus-pool-and-pick…

GraphsFan: Are you able to scout multiple players at once in a game? For people new to scouting, do they have to intensely focus on one player?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s easier but also usually boring to go to a game and only watch one guy with pro potential on the field

Kiley McDaniel: for some SEC games where there’s 12 guys with pro potential, it’s sometimes too much to watch them all as much as you’d like

Kiley McDaniel: often a nice matchup with 3-5 guys spread evenly across teams and pitchers/hitters is ideal to get lots of looks and not be overwhelmed

Kiley McDaniel: I also pay attention to everyone with pro potential, even if not draft eligible (as the 2020 and 2021 board suggest) and scouts typically don’t

Slurve: If draft picks were tradeable commodities, what would 1-1 be “worth”?  in dollars or better yet hypothetical players…

Kiley McDaniel: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

Kiley McDaniel: Roughly $45M, some would argue more given that Moncada was deemed “worth” $63M when he signed

Kiley McDaniel: And Craig also wrote about how to convert those numbers into minor league prospects https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

Nick: What are the chances Hunter Bishop or Bryson Stott is available at 14 for the Phillies?

Kiley McDaniel: Bishop 5%, Stott 15%

Slurve: What’s the biggest advantage of scouting in person?

Kiley McDaniel: getting to see the between innings dizzy bat races instead of commericals

Christopher Nolan Reimold: Any reason Kyren Paris has dropped a few spots on THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: Some of the other young prep hitters (Cavaco, Henderson, Volpe) sounds like they’re a little higher than Paris

Christopher Nolan Reimold: When you hear a story, good or bad, about the makeup of a player who is projected to go top five or so rounds in the draft, is that something that all 30 teams are also going to hear? Or does stuff like that not always reach every team?

Kiley McDaniel: Typically yes, and many of them probably hear it and have better/more data to make them think it isn’t a great data point to make a decision off of

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve heard one guy in our top 10 gives teams a weird vibe in his home visits but we still aren’t sure that matters. Some scouts thought Bryce Harper was a bad guy to the point that it would impact his performance and they were wrong. Some said the same about Josh Beckett. One of the guys in our top 10 prospects in baseball spooked some teams with his home visit and that wasn’t predictive…so you’re going to get 30 different answers to any one data point.

Ben: Did you see the driveline post trying to rank player development? Curious to hear your thoughts since you have a bit of a background. Is there any better way for public to quantify this with available data?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw it, haven’t gotten around to reading it yet, but I’ve liked their series, so I’ll probably like that, too

Rick Hahn : If BAL takes Adley, it would be the first time since _____ that a preseason projected top pick maintained 1-1 status all the way through draft day

Kiley McDaniel: I was asked this a few days ago. Harper is one, Strasburg is one, I think David Price was as well. Not sure who else had pulled it off more recently off the top of my head.

ChatzMcGee: I’ve seen some information that if the Braves fail to sign their supplemental #9 pick they’ll receive another pick next year, I’ve also seen it said that they won’t, can you confirm which one is true?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m almost certain they do not get another comp pick

BlueJayMatt: I know they’re currently out of our pick range on your board and mock, but is there any chance Bishop or Bleday make it to Toronto’s pick at All?

Kiley McDaniel: Bleday no, Bishop maybe 7.5% chance?

Joe: Does Hampton have signability concerns at this point?  Could he be in play for Pittsburgh? Or is he too risky?  Team needs a prospect jolt after the big 4.   Definitely a position player? Team has only signed (and then traded) 1 pitcher in the first round since 2012!

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess Hampton goes 11-20 for around slot

Kiley Cyrus: David Appleman said they would add college stats to Fangraphs soon! I’ve been bamboozled!!! That’ll teach me to trust a man with a fruit for a last name

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like it’s still coming soon but it’s Appelman so he’s named after a former Stanford pitcher

mamsk: do you ever see any rangers prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw Hickory on Saturday. High Speed video of Chris Seise hitting a triple coming to IG this week!

Chaise: Are you able to “turn off” your scouting brain when watching baseball or is it just constantly evaluating tools?

Kiley McDaniel: Usually beer helps

Slurve: What

Huh: Is THE BOARD Environmentally friendly and made out of recycled materials?

Larry: I propose weekly mock updates. DEAL?!

RyanW: Does Cole Tucker have the most swag in the Pirates org, despite Travis Swaggerty also being in the system? I’ll take my answer off the air

Turd Ferguson: Sup Kiley!

Spring Cleanup: DAMIAN.  LILLARD.

80 grade Name: Packy Naughton

Bernie Madoff: Bernie “Made-off” with everyones money. It was in the name. WAKE UP SHEEPLE.

MATT DAMON: Did you know my middle name is Paige?

lol omg hi2u: Wow Kiley u sound hot got pics ????

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Matt Damon: Kiley.  McDaniel.

Kiley McDaniel: You guys were weird today thx bai