Kiley McDaniel Chat – 4/4/18

Kiley McDaniel: I’m here, ready to chat and the pupper is taking a nap behind me no one wake her up

MD: Does Miguel Andujar’s glove project to anywhere off the hot corner? How would his bat project for those positions?

Kiley McDaniel: He can basically play a competent version of any spot on the field, tools-wise, but he hasn’t played many others places. I’m sure he’ll be fine in a corner outfield but long-term he should play 3B.

josh: do you think kyle tucker is ready for the majors now? how should the astros shuffle their OF when he’s up?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d like to see a little more upper level reps but he’s closer than you think. Stealth ROY candidate, though he’ll need a spot to open up since there isn’t really one right now.

JJJones: What do you think about Jahmai Jones going back to second base?  Does he have the skill set to handle it?

Kiley McDaniel: He played there as a HS junior and that summer, he looked fine to me and I questioned why he was so quickly moved to CF. So, yes, could definitely work.

Guest: Thoughts on Jordan Adams stock after NHSI?

Kiley McDaniel: As I tweeted, he was the big winner of the event from a scouting perspective. Top 100 football recruit as a wide receiver, 80 runner, averageish arm and raw power, real twitchy. Swing kinda like Kyle Lewis, actions sorta like Royce Lewis or Byron Buxton. Important to note he’s more of a 2nd rounder right now since as recently as a few weeks ago scouts saw him and thought he looked rough. So this is all brand new, but he picked the right event to show out since over 100 scouts were there.

Tyler: Is there any chance that Blaze Alexander could be drafted as a pitcher? Seems like there’s not unconditional confidence in his bat, and his electric arm is well known to scouts and fans alike

Kiley McDaniel: 2nd or 3rd round as a bat but he has a 70 arm on the infield, so the velo on the mound isn’t surprising. He has helium, but as a bat only from who I’ve talked to. I will see him in the next couple weeks.

Matt: General thoughts on Chase Vallot in the Royals org? Insane walk rates and power output for a 20yo catcher in A+ but that strikeout rate sure is something.

Kiley McDaniel: Big power, late count guy, may not be able to catch. Definite guy to monitor since the power/patience is already there and he looked like a decent catcher a few years ago

Freddie: Is there any player that the industry isn’t necessarily considering 1-1 that you would try to strike an underslot deal with if you were drafting first overall?

Kiley McDaniel: You guys already know me and Eric love Madrigal. My report on Alec Bohm at Wichita State is in the editor’s hands, but I’m real in on that as well. Don’t think either will go 1-1, but both are in play right after that. If you mean a guy the industry has outside the top 10 that I’m really high on, not really right now.

Keith, Farmington CT: Thanks Kiley. Am I wrong to worry that Fernando Tatis Jr.’s swing-and-miss issues might be exploited badly this year in AA? Do you think he at least makes enough contact to let his power play up?

Kiley McDaniel: Always a fair question with a young power hitter being moved aggressively

Barves Gotta Barve: Surprised to see UGA creeping back into the top 25 after a several year hiatus. Do they have any draft prospects worth keeping an eye on?

Kiley McDaniel: Not like top 2 round types, but plenty of decent pro guys. Keegan McGovern is a solid senior sign, Michael Curry is a top 10 round guy for this year. Schunk and Shepherd have some potential for 2019. Trevor Tinder has a great name.

AA: I know you’ve written some about a team fielding 5-6 DSL teams and filling them with $10k bonus guys. Any chance the Braves could take this path to mitigate some of the international penalty damage they’d see otherwise?

Kiley McDaniel: Not a bad idea. Haven’t heard of any team doing this, still kinda surprised no one is doing it. Talked to a couple scouts about it this weekend and they agreed it’s a good idea.

Craig: Have you ever brought your dog to a bark in the park game before?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t yet but might do it for a HS hitter where I only have to focus for a couple moments in the game. She’s very social, so wouldn’t be conducive to watching a pitcher and trying to keep her still.

Bravesy McBravesface: Will we get an article with your observations from the NHSI event?

Kiley McDaniel: You will

Jim Lahey: Better offensive ceiling: Juan Soto or Jesus Sanchez?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably Soto but it’s close. More detail here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

RVA Empire: Akeel Morris, what’s up with him? Seemed like a great ST and decent stats but Braves basically just handed him over to the Angels for a bag of balls. Intangibles at play or just a non-issue move?

Kiley McDaniel: Back of the 40-man type until he performs in the big leagues. Trick pitch type with an easy plus, very slow changeup, so sometimes a different pitching coach can help tease out a better performance.

Bob: Your thoughts on Swaggerty after seeing him in Atlanta.

Kiley McDaniel: Also in the article that’s in the editor’s hands. I got a terrible look. He was off balance in every AB, went 0 for 6 when his team scored 11 runs, then the second game got rained out. He’s still a top 10 pick, just not running hot right now.

Alan: Alec Bohm. Is the hype real? Top 5 guy? Can he stick at 3rd long term?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, Yes, Yes

Al: Jonathan India. Do we buy in yet? Where do you see him being selected at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: Also in the article with the editor. He’s got helium, cleaned up the body, profiles at 3B and is really hitting. First day guy now.

Mark : Any truth to the rumor that if other teams knew what the Blue Jays did about Nate Pearson, he would have been in the conversation for 1.1?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not a rumor, the Jays GM said it. And how would anyone know if there’s truth to it? What did the Blue Jays know? Based on our top 100, we would’ve had him in the top 10 picks if they draft was this winter so maybe?

Hoby : What’s the deal with Phillies 3rd round pick last year Connor Seabold?? Seems like an interesting pitchability guy but I’ve heard literally nothing on him.

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-26-prospects-philadelphia-phillies…

Kiley McDaniel: That’s about what he is

Greg: Is it too early to connect teams to players? Any White Sox draft inklings?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, we are hearing some stuff along those lines at this point, but still early to have decent intel on each team. Hearing college bat for the White Sox, they really like Swaggerty.

North Side Nihilist: I like the video I’ve seen of Tristen Lutz and he seems to be a dude if he develops well with the hit/power tools he already has. Any word on his makeup/work ethic?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m all in on Lutz, feel free to join me

Balls on Base: Don’t people know they can ask you non-prospect questions too?

Kiley McDaniel: I think so? It’s true!

Gavin: Did you see Kershaw pitch last night? Back-to-back starts with diminished velocity–any reason for concern yet?

Kiley McDaniel: Look, I found one! Nah, I wouldn’t panic, you could say he’s built up some goodwill being the best in the planet at his job

Bravesy McBravesface: Do you think Ethan Hankins’ quick pace is gimmicky?  Is his stuff playing up because of the pace he pitches with, or is it that good regardless?

Kiley McDaniel: Stuff was really good last summer, been a little less this spring but he’s been banged up and it’s been cold/rainy in a few of his starts. It’s gimmicky and useless for some guys, it seems like he has better than usual feel for it

DR: What do you make of Pint repeating Asheville?  Legit in a vacuum?  Or more about minimizing his exposure to Lancaster?

Kiley McDaniel: When I saw him last summer his command was a 30, so I can’t argue with that

Mike: I’m sure the Tigers are still looking at a lot of guys, but if you had to guess who their top 4 guys would be right now, who do you think they would be?

Kiley McDaniel: Mize fits their type to a T: power arm performing in the SEC. Those may be the two top qualities they like and there’s a long track record with this same scouting group of them picking types that are one or the other, so you have to assume they like a guy that’s both.

Reverend John: Can you talk a bit about Tristen Lutz? I’ve read that some of his exit velo readings are highly impressive, but his swing doesn’t look all that “lofty” to me. Think he’ll have trouble with over-the-fence power?

Kiley McDaniel: LOL congrats on a truly terrible question. There’s hard evidence he hits the ball really hard but could that really put the ball over the fence? How about the 9 homers in 40 games after he signed?

Bravesy McBravesface: Where would you rank Cole Winn among the prep pitchers in this class?

Kiley McDaniel: Right there with the best ones. Hankins, Liberatore, Stewart, Denaburg, Rocker, Winn is the top group and, at this point, you could put them in a lot of different orders. Minus injuries or weird signability maneuvers, they should all go top 25. There’s some velo popping up in the northeast, so one of those guys or Ryan Weathers in TN could jump into that group

Kiley McDaniel: Grayson Rodriguez in TX also just behind that group

Michael Scott: Saw your tweet last night. Can Gunnar Hoglund sneak into the back of the first round?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think he can go that high. More 2nd-4th depending on whom you ask and the asking price will be steep, so he may not end up going there.

Raj: How do you rate Connor Scott? How does he compare to Kyle Tucker as a HS prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: I am also in on Connor Scott. Probably 10-15 overall right now. Here’s more info on him

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

From Tuesday, here’s Plant HS (FL) CF Connor Scott. Same high school & very similar swing to Kyle Tucker, but Scott… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…

16 Mar 2018

Jake: Have you or Eric seen the Indians J2 guys in Arizona? What’s your first impression?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw them both (Valera/Bracho) as amateurs and liked them, but they’re kinda opposites. Valera is super loose power bat with limited speed/defense and Bracho is feel for the game/defense/contact SS in the traditional VZ mold. I think Eric has seen them this spring? You’ll have to ask him.

Sonny: Does the recent shortcomings in Red Sox pitching development effect your rankings on their prospect arms?

Kiley McDaniel: We rank the players based on how good we think they are/will be, not based on who their coaches are now, or what stadium they will play in the future, etc.

Bravesy McBravesface: Ryan Rolison seems to be struggling with his control of late, and he has a pretty high WHIP as a result.  Is his still in the top tier of college pitchers in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s still above average stuff from the left side with some feel in the SEC, so yes. More 7-15 right now.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: How well are teams able to predict velocity improvement? Are there factors they can use to project velocity beyond how filled out a player’s frame is?

Kiley McDaniel: Some teams have sports science divisions, some go really deep into trackman stuff, others have specific arm actions or velo training they do, etc. There’s lots of approaches and little edges to be had, but there’s no one size fits all solution. It’s a combo of body, delivery and arm action mostly. Yankees seem to be very good at that stuff, Dodgers as well.

Mason: Do you have think Tyler Glasnow could be an effective starter or is he just a relief guy for you? Could he be an effective late inning relief pitcher?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s in that Touki Toussaint/Albert Abreu/Andrew Miller kind of vortex for me now. They could probably all turn a lineup over a few times (or will in the future) and be ok. But with high octane stuff and either inconsistent command or lots of success in a relief role, it’s hard to walk away from a nails 1-2 IP reliever and end up with a mediocre starter. I assume all these guys end up grabbing some starts but settling as a versatile relief option.

Ford: Impressions of Greg Jones from your most recent look?

Kiley McDaniel: Also in that article (that means hurry up, Carson). Really like him! 70 runner, may be more 2B/CF than shortstop and could stand to lift the ball more since he has some pop, but really athletic and has some feel for the game. First rounder as an eligible soph in 2019

Moe: I’ve heard some helium associated with Yankees SP prospect Luis Medina — what kind of grades do his pitches have, and what’s the command/control profile.

Kiley McDaniel: I have provided more information than you require at this link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-27-prospects-new-york-yankees/

North Side Nihilist: If you’re an Astros decision-maker are you keeping Bukauskas in the starting role? I know he hasn’t had a full year yet but what do you think about his tools to stay as a starter?

Kiley McDaniel: He may also fall into that Touki/Glasnow vortex I mentioned before. Knockout breaker, good velo, not sure its 2-3 times thru the order for the rest of his career, though. I would stretch him out and see how he fares, but it really feels like he’s gonna be pitching in relief in October and throwing 37 sliders in a row, doesn’t it?

Bravesy McBravesface: I’ve seen Kumar Rocker’s name popping back up a lot lately when talking about the top prep pitchers this year.  Has he done anything this spring to raise his draft stock?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s throwing hard, his slider is dirty and he’s throwing strikes, sounds like he’s in better shape too. So, yes.

Byron: How does Bo Bichette have a present hit tool grade of 30? That must be an error, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, it’s a future 50 and if it was a current 50, he’d be in the big leagues. He’s played one season in A-Ball (with unsustainable BABIPs, so don’t scout the stat line) so 30 is about as high as you can go. If he goes bonkers this year, it might be a 45 or 50 at the end of the year, but I’d expect it to be more like 40, then around 50 in late 2019 or 2020

Tate: What do you make of the Jordan Hicks situation?

Kiley McDaniel: He throws really hard and has a solid breaking ball and fits in relief long term, so it’s earlier than expected but not like super surprising. I would assume he gets a little more minor league time at some point, though.

Damn it Donnie: Brusdar Graterol is an intriguing name — have you heard anything about him? FV? What do the pitches / command grade at?

Kiley McDaniel: We like him too, arm strength dude in the lower levels with some feel for offspeed. He made our non top 100 guys we think have a chance to end up on the list next year: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-some-lower-ranked-prospects-we-l…

Wayne: Which Vanderbilt player has the best chance to jump into the first day of the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Reid Schaller, but he’s more 3rd-4th right now

Jesse: Thoughts on Liberatore’s changeup and new slider/cutter? Based on my viewing (via streaming), it appeared he threw a mid-80s (84-85 mph) slider/slider. The pitch had different movement than his low-80s (80-81) changeup.

Kiley McDaniel: Change flashed 55, slider was inconsistent but flashed solid avg in mid 80’s

Kiley McDaniel: hold on, belly rub break

Kiley McDaniel: (fangraphs hold music)

Kiley McDaniel: okay we’re back

Prospects galore : With the White Sox essentially throwing all of their prospects at the wall and seeing what sticks, who do you think surprises them the most?

Kiley McDaniel: lol that’s assuming i have telepathic powers over multiple white sox execs and we all know i only have that for a couple teams, but none in the al central

Bravesy McBravesface: Why is Liberatore considered the top prep pitcher in the draft by most outlets?  It seems like his inability to hold his velocity and the recent advances made by other pitchers like Stewart, Hankins, Denaburg, Winn, etc. have made that picture murkier.  Are teams banking on him maintaining the velo later into his outings with some professional development?

Kiley McDaniel: Liberatore is a more of a 50-55 now stuff, projects for more, above average command prototypical prep arm type, when his first outing (just a couple innings) may have created the expectation he was 93-97 with a plus hook for longer outings when in reality he’s backed up a little bit each start since then. My earlier answer that the top tier of prep arms is jumbled is more the current opinion. If you saw Kumar Rocker sit 94-96 with a 65 slider and throw strikes, then saw Liberatore 90-92 with a 55 curveball for all but one inning at NHSI, it’s hard for physical projection to close that gap, hence those guys all being ranked differently depending on who you ask.

Lou: Can you order these in terms of a possible breakout: Faria, Flaherty, Junis, Skaggs

Kiley McDaniel: 2, 1, 4, 3

Phil: Why has Griffin Conine struggled?

Kiley McDaniel: Also in that article! Man, Carson just publish that thing already!

Kiley McDaniel: Essentially, he’s selling out too much for power and needs to scale it back some

Bravesy McBravesface: Sorry about all of my questions about prep players today.  It’s just really difficult to get much info on them, and most of the video available to the public is really old.

Kiley McDaniel: That’s why I’m here, so no worries. Unless you ask bad questions, then I will hammer you

Pauly: Do you see a Acuna/Pache/Ender outfield in Atlanta’s future or is Ender the odd man out in a few years if Pache develops?

Kiley McDaniel: I think Ender is tailing off with a couple years left on his deal at a good price by the time Pache gets there, so I’d guess they don’t overlap that much…but that’s just me assuming.

Sonny: For a prep arm getting 1 ip at a showcase how important for his future is popping the highest number he can vs showing pitchability, getting outs, etc?

Kiley McDaniel: You’ll get different answers based on who you ask. There is some value in popping one high number so scouts can tell their bosses “this guy hit 96” and they’ll be a little more likely to go see him than if they say “this guys sits 90-92”. But that only happens when a scout already likes you and chooses to emphasize the 96 to get his boss there, since he knows you can carve at 90-92 and wants to sign you. So, just do what helps you succeed in that setting, throwing strikes and getting outs and whatnot, since they’re going to focus more on arm action and offspeed pitches, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: (which are things you can’t really choose to change in the moment like you can choose to throw harder with less control)

Turgid: You’re a Florida Man… other than taking bath salts and going to Disney World, what’s the best thing to do in Orlando?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean that’s kinda the list, man

Fair line: Shohei “Barrels” Ohtani: fun guy or fungi?

BJ: HEY PUPPER WAKE UP

Kiley McDaniel: Uh oh we’re getting in range

SQUIRREL: SQUIRREL!

Turgid: Josh Reddick has a pancake ass

Kiley McDaniel: Oh come on that’s not very nice. See you guys next week