Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/16/18
12:03 |
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/ and of course THE BOARD, which will be updated shortly https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx : Hello everyone, a couple quick plugs for the new @FG_Prospects twitter account and yesterday’s mock draft: |
12:03 |
: What’d you think of Muller the other day? What does he project as? #4? |
12:05 |
Kyle Muller and Justin Dunn pitching, included some notes on twitter and Cristian Pache video @kileymcd if you’re interested in that. Muller now appears to be essentially what was expected out of HS: low 90’s touch 95, solid avg offspeed that could be 55’s along with starter command and a sturdy frame with some projection. Still young enough that things can still change a bit, but he’s fully recovered from a rocky 2017. Also has easy plus raw power he’ll get to use in Double-A. : Saw Florida/St. Lucie yesterday with |
12:05 |
: is Bart’s floor the Mets at 6? |
12:06 |
: I think it’s probably 5/CIN but yeah maybe 6/NYM, right around there. |
12:06 |
: Do you buy or sell the Dodgers missing the playoffs ? |
12:07 |
: BUY it’s much closer to a coinflip now but people are treating them like their done, so I’m scooping up those Dodgers shares on the cheap |
12:07 |
: I am very much excited for BUY or SELL today |
12:07 |
: Do you buy or sell the dbacks re-signing Goldscmidt when free agent ? |
12:08 |
: SELL fans will want him back but doesn’t feel like something this front office would do, paying huge money to a first baseman that will be turning 32 when he becomes a free agent |
12:08 |
: I have no basis to question it but thought it was interesting that Nander De Sedas didn’t make the mock. Does he go to school? Or sign an overslot deal in the 2nd round? Other? |
12:09 |
: I think he’ll go to school. Don’t love shining a spotlight on high school kids that have had a tough spring, but he’s one. Sounds like his stock is 4th-5th and his expectations are probably much higher. |
12:09 |
Cavan Biggio legit? : Is |
12:10 |
: Talked to a guy that saw him recently and he thinks he’s a solid piece, but it’s fringy at 2B, more corner utility fit and is lifting the ball now so there’s more offensive upside but hard to see as everyday. I can already feel Jays fans being mad that I’m saying this but hey you found a real prospect outside the top few rounds so feel good |
12:11 |
Bo Bichette’s evaporation of slugging at A+ and now AA+, has his bat wrap been exploited by better pitching. : How much longer realistically can the Jay’s keep Vlad Jr. In the minors and do you think they skip him over AAA. Also any concerns about |
12:12 |
: From what I can gather, the Jays (and everyone with eyes) can see there isn’t much to gain from staying in AAA, but they want to motivate him to try harder at 3B, where he can be something approaching average in the short term, but he’s never really seemed to care that much about defense, for some obvious reasons. This is why we projected him to 1B just because this doesn’t feel like the longterm home even if he could choose to be serviceable there with more focus and keeping the body where it is. |
12:13 |
: Also, I mentioned this last week, but we’ll be updating his present hit/power grades now, since I’m not sure anything thought he’d be doing this well right now in a first look at Double-A with not exactly warm weather. And I confirmed that he’s hit three balls 117 mph this year so that’s pretty good. |
12:14 |
: Matthew liberatore has a chance for 4 plus and plus command? Is that unrealistic? |
12:15 |
: Eh yeah probably. There’s a chance for 3 plus and plus command but even that would be pushing it a bit. I think the 75-90% outcome/realistic upside is something like 60 FB, 65 CB, 55 CH, 50 SL, 55 CMD. |
12:15 |
: Sean Hjelle, thoughts on him? |
12:16 |
: We’re probably going to be the low ones on him. Low 90’s fastball extreme plane obviously being 6’11, offspeed is average but sometimes is below, command is average to a little above, just more of a backend strike thrower groundball type than a mid rotation guy with anything close to an outpitch. We’ll probably have him late 2nd round and he’ll probably go comp to early 2nd. |
12:17 |
: Do you see any MN HS kids in the next few years being drafted? |
12:19 |
Sam Carlson’s little brother Max is also on the radar for 2020. : RHP Seth Halvorsen is the big name for this year, but he’s in that not-sure-where-he-goes area since I don’t know his asking price. For 2019, RHP Will Frisch has some buzz and for 2020 SS Mac Horvath may be the best of those three. |
12:19 |
: To your knowledge is there any player in the minors who is so bad defensively that he wouldn’t be the best defensive player on your average beer league softball team? I am guessing the answer is “No, even a rookie league washout is probably the best player you’d ever be on a field with” |
12:19 |
: That is correct |
12:20 |
Cristian Pache’s season? The numbers show more power this year, hoping seeing him in person shows the same. : I know we’re only a little over a month into the minor league season, but any word on |
12:20 |
: Saw him yesterday, think this will answer most of your question Braves CF Cristian Pache is our 37th-ranked prospect in baseball and he took some not so great hacks today, then hi… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…
|
12:20 |
: (there’s a video to his best swing of the day in the tweet) |
12:20 |
: How would you compare scouting grades of Madrigal & India? Stats wise India has clearly been the superior player this year with the bat, but that obviously only tells a small part of the story. |
12:21 |
: India, for me, is 50 hit, 50 game power (55 raw), 50-55 glove, 55 arm. Probably 3B only, but you could try him at 2B, emergency only at SS |
12:21 |
: and 50 run |
12:22 |
: Madrigal is 60 hit, 40-45 game power, 60-70 run, 50 arm, 60 glove at 2B, chance to be average at SS if he gets more reps there but not a slam dunk. And the power could turn into 50 and the hit could turn into 70 depending on what sort of swing/approach he uses |
12:23 |
: You could still argue Madrigal is the best prospect in the draft and, for me, India isn’t in the top 10. |
12:23 |
Walker Buehler thus far? I’m assuming that the Dodgers have an innings cap in mind, and that is why we won’t be seeing many 6+ inning starts? : What are your thoughts on |
12:23 |
: And I think they lean more to the camp of not going third time thru the order particularly with rookies. Electric stuff, fun to watch, as advertised |
12:24 |
: As a Pirates fan, who should I be happy with at pick 10? I’m hoping they get Liberatore, Stewart, or Kelenic. Is that reasonable? |
12:24 |
: Heard yesterday they are on Grayson Rodriguez as well. Yeah, you should get a shot at at least one of those |
12:24 |
: Hearing anything with the ChiSox on India? Is he still an under-slot candidate at 4? Or has his rise played himself into slot value if selected that high? |
12:25 |
: Only team in the top 10 we’ve heard seriously considering him is 6/NYM |
12:25 |
: Is Alec Bohm a 3Bman for the long term ? |
12:25 |
: Some say no, I think yes for now, but he has broad shoulders and if I knew he was adding 20 lbs I may say no as well. |
12:25 |
: Buy or Sell: Buy or Sell as a chat mini-game |
12:26 |
: BUY this is much easier than writing long answers |
12:26 |
: Is there PED testing at the NCAA level? Seems to be a lot of incentive to cheat in HS/College if not. |
12:27 |
: Yes, but it’s random so some player may not get tested every year. Rumors suggest PED use is rampant at JCs and some much more than others. |
12:27 |
: Who do you think the Pirates pick at 10 in three weeks? If it is Stewart, should I be happy? What would his upside be? |
12:27 |
Mitch Keller, if you’re into that sort of thing : He could be better than |
12:27 |
: Highest ceiling and floor in this years draft? |
12:29 |
: Floor is Madrigal. Ceiling is tough to say probably one of Alec Bohm, Kyler Murray, Jordyn Adams. Stewart/Liberatore on pitcher side |
12:30 |
: What’s your opinion of Gage Canning ? I see you think the Cubs like him. What round is he likely to go ? |
12:30 |
: Probably 3rd. Solid gap power, easy plus run, CF fit, some contact questions |
12:31 |
: How polished is Brady Singer compared to AJ Puk or
|
12:31 |
: He’s kinda a finished product, just needs to throw his CH more. Puk was not a finished product in college and Faedo sorta was but wasn’t as good as Singer. |
12:32 |
Mickey Moniak? Is he just not that good? : What is wrong with |
12:32 |
: Saw him a couple weeks ago. Don’t think the game power is there with this current swing, so he’s more of a contact/defense type with gap to gap power that’s having growing pains |
12:32 |
Franmil Reyes questions. For a guy with little to no prospect buzz going into this year, he must be enjoying his fifteen minutes of fame, right? : In a chat yesterday, it seemed like there were hundreds of |
12:34 |
: He’s interesting, we had him as a 40 FV preseason and we still do. Not much defensive/speed/contact but lots of power and he’s tapping into it. Kinda a finished product one tool guy but the numbers are loud. Franchy is that but with speed, so I think he’s got more value. |
12:34 |
https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=1&po… : And you could deduce that using the tool grades on the Padres list here: |
12:35 |
Shane Bieber, Beeks, Corbin Burnes and Luzardo. Other names? : Which SP that flew under the radar can have an impact from this year in the Show? I’m thinking about |
12:36 |
: Bieber will be on the top 100 edit coming up. Luzardo will move up from where he is, Burnes will hold about there. Beeks is more of a fill guy. |
12:36 |
: What assumptions about the life of a scout do they public get the most wrong? |
12:37 |
: It’s a huge amount of time at games, traveling, writing reports alone in a hotel, planning/booking travel, doing expenses, on conference calls. It’s not a show up to the park and work 3 hours a day type deal that many assume. |
12:39 |
: Also, today’s THE BOARD sort of the day from @FG_Prospects is a fun one SORT THE BOARD The 2013 July 2nd class has produced six elite bats (MLB) Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL, CUR |
12:39 |
Alex Reyes when he gets back to the Cardinals? Think he will be a real difference maker? His rehab starts are encouraging. : What do you expect from |
12:40 |
: At his best, he has an 80 FB, 70 CB, 60 CH and fringy command. Could be really, really good, but he gives some pretty varied looks and he’s just coming back so I’d be patient |
12:40 |
: Do scouts note if a player is at risk for PED use or are they only concerned with what happens on the field? |
12:40 |
: They’ll suggest it in the report if there’s reason to believe, like a power spike/body change that doesn’t seem possible, or playing in a league where that happens a lot |
12:42 |
: who are the top top candidates to sign Victor? Would Boston be up there since they aren’t linked to any top 16 year old international guys? |
12:44 |
: Too early to project that. I’m curious how he’ll look in his public workout since the Cuban prospects often look a little different after training than they did years before when they were scouted more heavily. I saw Victor two years ago and he looked good, potential everyday CF profile, but didn’t blow me away. |
12:44 |
: Chances Nick Northcut gets to Vandy in the fall? |
12:45 |
: Better than 50% |
12:45 |
: Thoughts on Tatis this year? |
12:45 |
: Told you guys not to freak out |
12:45 |
: If Ryan Weathers doesn’t go to SD at pick 7, how far do you see him falling? |
12:45 |
: Next couple teams on him are 11-16 area, so something like that probably |
12:45 |
: Any more clarity on who the Yankees are looking at with pick 23? Thanks! |
12:46 |
: Heard they are heavy on Grant Lavigne, New Hampshire prep 1B, more for their 2nd pick but possible underslot at their first pick |
12:46 |
: Do you think it is likely that one of McClanahan, Swaggerty, or India is available at 14 for the Mariners? |
12:47 |
: Maybe 20% chance one of them gets there? Rumors of McClanahan and Swaggerty falling the last few days but 14 is a long way |
12:47 |
: Xavier Edwards seemed to be a candidate for multiple spots in your mock draft. Is there a chance he’s strictly a speed and defense player like a
|
12:48 |
: No, he’s strong and he can hit. High probability type |
12:48 |
: Bart is putting up great numbers at Ga Tech. What would his MLB eta be and what would hold that up more (bat or glove)? |
12:49 |
: late 2019 or 2020? Him and Madrigal should move fast. Bart for me is 45 hit, 55-60 power (65 raw), 40-45 runner, 55-60 glove, 65 arm |
12:49 |
: Has Hankins’ stock dropped more because of health or inconsistency this spring? |
12:50 |
: Health isn’t an issue at this point, his breaking ball has just backed up a lot since the summer and he’s passing physicals so there isn’t a clear explanation. |
12:50 |
: You mentioned Cincy liked Bart, but if one of Bohm or Madrigal is there at #5, would the Reds take either of them over Singer? |
12:50 |
: We know they love Madrigal, but I don’t think he gets there |
12:51 |
Austin Riley will be / could be? I’ve heard various opinions regarding his suggested ceiling. Do you think he’ll get a call this year? Thanks! : What kind of major leaguer do you think |
12:51 |
: 45-50 hit, 60-65 power, 45-50 defense at 3B. Guessing it’s either this summer or 12 days into 2019. |
12:53 |
: Is it difficult to project Mike Siani as a hitter, or are his future hit and power grades pointing toward average? |
12:53 |
: 50-55 hit, 50 power, CF fit, something like that |
12:55 |
: Lux has some tools so sure. Reks was a numbers-only senior sign that’s a smallish LF with no tools and a weird swing but huge numbers at Kentucky–probably an org guy. |
12:56 |
: Side question: does The Board include all the 2018 draft prospects you guys have seen? That would be awesome, albeit a lot of work. |
12:56 |
: It will include hundreds of draft guys in a week or so |
12:56 |
Huascar Ynoa and what is his ceiling? : How big of a project is |
12:56 |
: up to 98 with a sinker, three above average pitches at times, command still needs to come a little more. Chance to be pretty good |
12:57 |
: Billy Eppler is a great GM. He’s gotten the Angels more competitive and made monumental strides in building the farm. I haven’t been this excited about the minor league system in over a decade. I think the Angels have 5-6 really good prospects and some decent depth. Am I overrating the system because we’ve gotten so used to having bad to marginal talent for so long? |
12:58 |
Jose Soriano, Trent Deveaux and Griffin Canning all moving up in the update to THE BOARD soon, so the job he’s done in that area has been effective so far, albeit with a low bar to clear : I mean it has been bad for awhile but it’s definitely solid now, with |
12:58 |
Garrett Whitlock? Solid start to the year and I believe they just bumped him up a level? Thanks! : Thoughts on Yankees’ |
12:58 |
: Heavy sinker/slider type probably middle reliever |
12:59 |
: I’m an Atlanta Braves fan who wants the team to draft Jarred Kelenic. Please tell me this is happening |
12:59 |
: Well the teams don’t know who they’re drafting yet so literally no one can help you with this |
12:59 |
: In cold weather states, do you guys utilize word of mouth from area scouts to value prospects that you can’t get eyes on? |
1:00 |
: Well we do that everywhere but Eric was just in PA, NJ, NY and Wisconsin so we also go there. |
1:00 |
: Someone said McKenzie Gore is a #4 starter – what say you? |
1:00 |
: Let’s all attack Someone! |
1:00 |
Juan Soto is currently pegged for a FV 50. Is that trending upwards? : |
1:00 |
: Yes |
1:01 |
: How many prospects on the Board do you think will see FV changes during your first update? |
1:01 |
: Maybe 20? |
1:01 |
: Please tell me no teams are seriously entertaining the idea of drafting Luke Heimlich? |
1:01 |
: Sounds like team are being very cautious, but don’t know if anyone is thinking about it seriously or not |
1:02 |
Brendan Rodgers will have better career than tulo? : Buy or sell : |
1:03 |
: Gonna have to SELL here but Rodgers will be good, needs to improve pitch selection a bit |
1:03 |
: Saw you mentioned Denaburg might go to school. Any chance Connor Scott or Seigler do? |
1:03 |
: Sounds like no and no |
1:03 |
: Buy or sell the Braves going all-in this season and being major players at the deadline? |
1:04 |
: SELL probably more of adding role players and maintaining the core prospects if they stay in contention |
1:04 |
: Seems like its starting to solidify as 1. Mize 2. Bart 3. Bohm. Agree or disagree? |
1:04 |
: SELL there’s been some recent buzz that this top 3 projection may blow up, which we’re trying to wrap our heads around |
1:05 |
: You said a couple of weeks back that Travis Swaggerty has maturity issues? I understand you don’t want to talk about them but are they something to be seriously concerned about? |
1:06 |
: Dont think it’s a long term concern but it seems to be making people hesitate when their jobs and millions are on the line. His swing getting out of whack seems like a bigger deal, to be honest |
1:06 |
Justin Dunn change when you saw him? Gonna be a solid 3/4? : So did your opinion of |
1:07 |
: More 4 starter or 7th/8th inning reliever but yeah he’s still solid, good arm with three pitches flashing average |
1:08 |
Sean Newcomb quietly becoming an ace? : Is |
1:08 |
: Kinda surprised more people don’t talk about him and it’s probably more of a #2 upside but he’s making more progress than I expected to see this year |
1:08 |
Luis Patino is starting today for Fort Wayne. Have you seen him recently? Thanks for the chat! : |
1:09 |
: I haven’t, Eric has, and heard some good buzz about that little dude flinging it up there in the high 90s |
1:09 |
Chris Owings … I’ve seen his numbers and they look legit : What’s the knock on Jeremy Eirman ? He reminds me of |
1:09 |
: More power, less speed |
1:09 |
Austin Riley at 3b for the braves in the WC game? : Buy or Sell |
1:10 |
: BUY this doesn’t seem nuts but it kinda would have in March |
1:10 |
: Question about Kumar Rocker. Seems like a month ago he was projected to go in the top ten. In your latest mock, you have him going in the supplemental rounds. Did something happen with him that I missed to drop his stock? |
1:10 |
: I mean we literally spelled it out in the mock. He had a bad last start, he wants a lot of money, so once he slides past 15 or so, it’s either overpay in the 30’s (for top 15 money) or go to school. |
1:11 |
: are the pirates leaning towards a hitter or pitcher with the tenth pick? |
1:11 |
: Hearing more pitchers |
1:11 |
: Is it true? Are you truly prepared to discuss *all* facets of baseball? |
1:12 |
: Man, sometimes you need to really look at the man in the mirror, ya know? |
1:12 |
: Why wont the Blue Jays free
|
1:12 |
: #freedannyjansen |
1:12 |
: MATT BOYD |
1:12 |
: MATT. DAMON. |
1:12 |
: Kabloosh |
1:12 |
: Rigatoni. Spaghetti. Linguine. Fettuccine. Lasagne. Macaroni. Elbow. Cannelloni. Penne. Tagliatelle. Ravioli . Bucatini. Orzo. Fusilli. Orecchiette. Farfalle. Cavatelli. |
1:12 |
: I was looking through another site’s prospect archives the other day and I just want to thank you for not throwing around 80s like candy from a small town Fourth of July parade. |
1:12 |
: |
1:13 |
: That feels like the way to end it. Thanks for reading! |
Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
I dunno if you saw the criticism of some of your more — let’s say snarky — answers, but regardless of why you did it I really appreciate that you’ve gone back to a more cordial style in your chats. Always been a big fan, and love reading them.