Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/16/18 by Kiley McDaniel May 16, 2018 12:03 Kiley McDaniel: Hello everyone, a couple quick plugs for the new @FG_Prospects twitter account and yesterday’s mock draft: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/ and of course THE BOARD, which will be updated shortly https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx 12:03 Peter: What’d you think of Muller the other day? What does he project as? #4? 12:05 Kiley McDaniel: Saw Florida/St. Lucie yesterday with Kyle Muller and Justin Dunn pitching, included some notes on twitter and Cristian Pache video @kileymcd if you’re interested in that. Muller now appears to be essentially what was expected out of HS: low 90’s touch 95, solid avg offspeed that could be 55’s along with starter command and a sturdy frame with some projection. Still young enough that things can still change a bit, but he’s fully recovered from a rocky 2017. Also has easy plus raw power he’ll get to use in Double-A. 12:05 Foolish Child: is Bart’s floor the Mets at 6? 12:06 Kiley McDaniel: I think it’s probably 5/CIN but yeah maybe 6/NYM, right around there. 12:06 Jimmy: Do you buy or sell the Dodgers missing the playoffs ? 12:07 Kiley McDaniel: BUY it’s much closer to a coinflip now but people are treating them like their done, so I’m scooping up those Dodgers shares on the cheap 12:07 Kiley McDaniel: I am very much excited for BUY or SELL today 12:07 Jimmy: Do you buy or sell the dbacks re-signing Goldscmidt when free agent ? 12:08 Kiley McDaniel: SELL fans will want him back but doesn’t feel like something this front office would do, paying huge money to a first baseman that will be turning 32 when he becomes a free agent 12:08 Rob: I have no basis to question it but thought it was interesting that Nander De Sedas didn’t make the mock. Does he go to school? Or sign an overslot deal in the 2nd round? Other? 12:09 Kiley McDaniel: I think he’ll go to school. Don’t love shining a spotlight on high school kids that have had a tough spring, but he’s one. Sounds like his stock is 4th-5th and his expectations are probably much higher. 12:09 Bork: Is Cavan Biggio legit? 12:10 Kiley McDaniel: Talked to a guy that saw him recently and he thinks he’s a solid piece, but it’s fringy at 2B, more corner utility fit and is lifting the ball now so there’s more offensive upside but hard to see as everyday. I can already feel Jays fans being mad that I’m saying this but hey you found a real prospect outside the top few rounds so feel good 12:11 Mike: How much longer realistically can the Jay’s keep Vlad Jr. In the minors and do you think they skip him over AAA. Also any concerns about Bo Bichette’s evaporation of slugging at A+ and now AA+, has his bat wrap been exploited by better pitching. 12:12 Kiley McDaniel: From what I can gather, the Jays (and everyone with eyes) can see there isn’t much to gain from staying in AAA, but they want to motivate him to try harder at 3B, where he can be something approaching average in the short term, but he’s never really seemed to care that much about defense, for some obvious reasons. This is why we projected him to 1B just because this doesn’t feel like the longterm home even if he could choose to be serviceable there with more focus and keeping the body where it is. 12:13 Kiley McDaniel: Also, I mentioned this last week, but we’ll be updating his present hit/power grades now, since I’m not sure anything thought he’d be doing this well right now in a first look at Double-A with not exactly warm weather. And I confirmed that he’s hit three balls 117 mph this year so that’s pretty good. 12:14 Tom: Matthew liberatore has a chance for 4 plus and plus command? Is that unrealistic? 12:15 Kiley McDaniel: Eh yeah probably. There’s a chance for 3 plus and plus command but even that would be pushing it a bit. I think the 75-90% outcome/realistic upside is something like 60 FB, 65 CB, 55 CH, 50 SL, 55 CMD. 12:15 The Candy Man: Sean Hjelle, thoughts on him? 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: We’re probably going to be the low ones on him. Low 90’s fastball extreme plane obviously being 6’11, offspeed is average but sometimes is below, command is average to a little above, just more of a backend strike thrower groundball type than a mid rotation guy with anything close to an outpitch. We’ll probably have him late 2nd round and he’ll probably go comp to early 2nd. 12:17 Peter: Do you see any MN HS kids in the next few years being drafted? 12:19 Kiley McDaniel: RHP Seth Halvorsen is the big name for this year, but he’s in that not-sure-where-he-goes area since I don’t know his asking price. For 2019, RHP Will Frisch has some buzz and for 2020 SS Mac Horvath may be the best of those three. Sam Carlson’s little brother Max is also on the radar for 2020. 12:19 OddBall Herrera: To your knowledge is there any player in the minors who is so bad defensively that he wouldn’t be the best defensive player on your average beer league softball team? I am guessing the answer is “No, even a rookie league washout is probably the best player you’d ever be on a field with” 12:19 Kiley McDaniel: That is correct 12:20 Larry: I know we’re only a little over a month into the minor league season, but any word on Cristian Pache’s season? The numbers show more power this year, hoping seeing him in person shows the same. 12:20 Kiley McDaniel: Saw him yesterday, think this will answer most of your question Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Braves CF Cristian Pache is our 37th-ranked prospect in baseball and he took some not so great hacks today, then hi… twitter.com/i/web/status/9… 15 May 2018 12:20 Kiley McDaniel: (there’s a video to his best swing of the day in the tweet) 12:20 Chicago White Sox: How would you compare scouting grades of Madrigal & India? Stats wise India has clearly been the superior player this year with the bat, but that obviously only tells a small part of the story. 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: India, for me, is 50 hit, 50 game power (55 raw), 50-55 glove, 55 arm. Probably 3B only, but you could try him at 2B, emergency only at SS 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: and 50 run 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: Madrigal is 60 hit, 40-45 game power, 60-70 run, 50 arm, 60 glove at 2B, chance to be average at SS if he gets more reps there but not a slam dunk. And the power could turn into 50 and the hit could turn into 70 depending on what sort of swing/approach he uses 12:23 Kiley McDaniel: You could still argue Madrigal is the best prospect in the draft and, for me, India isn’t in the top 10. 12:23 Mr. Fister: What are your thoughts on Walker Buehler thus far? I’m assuming that the Dodgers have an innings cap in mind, and that is why we won’t be seeing many 6+ inning starts? 12:23 Kiley McDaniel: And I think they lean more to the camp of not going third time thru the order particularly with rookies. Electric stuff, fun to watch, as advertised 12:24 Tim: As a Pirates fan, who should I be happy with at pick 10? I’m hoping they get Liberatore, Stewart, or Kelenic. Is that reasonable? 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Heard yesterday they are on Grayson Rodriguez as well. Yeah, you should get a shot at at least one of those 12:24 Butts: Hearing anything with the ChiSox on India? Is he still an under-slot candidate at 4? Or has his rise played himself into slot value if selected that high? 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: Only team in the top 10 we’ve heard seriously considering him is 6/NYM 12:25 Hinkie: Is Alec Bohm a 3Bman for the long term ? 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: Some say no, I think yes for now, but he has broad shoulders and if I knew he was adding 20 lbs I may say no as well. 12:25 AK: Buy or Sell: Buy or Sell as a chat mini-game 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: BUY this is much easier than writing long answers 12:26 Post Malone: Is there PED testing at the NCAA level? Seems to be a lot of incentive to cheat in HS/College if not. 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: Yes, but it’s random so some player may not get tested every year. Rumors suggest PED use is rampant at JCs and some much more than others. 12:27 Jeb: Who do you think the Pirates pick at 10 in three weeks? If it is Stewart, should I be happy? What would his upside be? 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: He could be better than Mitch Keller, if you’re into that sort of thing 12:27 Erik: Highest ceiling and floor in this years draft? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: Floor is Madrigal. Ceiling is tough to say probably one of Alec Bohm, Kyler Murray, Jordyn Adams. Stewart/Liberatore on pitcher side 12:30 Hinkie: What’s your opinion of Gage Canning ? I see you think the Cubs like him. What round is he likely to go ? 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: Probably 3rd. Solid gap power, easy plus run, CF fit, some contact questions 12:31 Jimmy: How polished is Brady Singer compared to AJ Puk or Alex Faedo? 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: He’s kinda a finished product, just needs to throw his CH more. Puk was not a finished product in college and Faedo sorta was but wasn’t as good as Singer. 12:32 Hooha: What is wrong with Mickey Moniak? Is he just not that good? 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: Saw him a couple weeks ago. Don’t think the game power is there with this current swing, so he’s more of a contact/defense type with gap to gap power that’s having growing pains 12:32 Mr. Fister: In a chat yesterday, it seemed like there were hundreds of Franmil Reyes questions. For a guy with little to no prospect buzz going into this year, he must be enjoying his fifteen minutes of fame, right? 12:34 Kiley McDaniel: He’s interesting, we had him as a 40 FV preseason and we still do. Not much defensive/speed/contact but lots of power and he’s tapping into it. Kinda a finished product one tool guy but the numbers are loud. Franchy is that but with speed, so I think he’s got more value. 12:34 Kiley McDaniel: And you could deduce that using the tool grades on the Padres list here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=1&po… 12:35 jack Italy: Which SP that flew under the radar can have an impact from this year in the Show? I’m thinking about Shane Bieber, Beeks, Corbin Burnes and Luzardo. Other names? 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: Bieber will be on the top 100 edit coming up. Luzardo will move up from where he is, Burnes will hold about there. Beeks is more of a fill guy. 12:36 Chuncey Wiggins: What assumptions about the life of a scout do they public get the most wrong? 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: It’s a huge amount of time at games, traveling, writing reports alone in a hotel, planning/booking travel, doing expenses, on conference calls. It’s not a show up to the park and work 3 hours a day type deal that many assume. 12:39 Kiley McDaniel: Also, today’s THE BOARD sort of the day from @FG_Prospects is a fun one FanGraphs Prospects @FG_Prospects SORT THE BOARD The 2013 July 2nd class has produced six elite bats (MLB) Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL, CUR (MLB) Rafael… twitter.com/i/web/status/9… 16 May 2018 12:39 Team Ramrod: What do you expect from Alex Reyes when he gets back to the Cardinals? Think he will be a real difference maker? His rehab starts are encouraging. 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: At his best, he has an 80 FB, 70 CB, 60 CH and fringy command. Could be really, really good, but he gives some pretty varied looks and he’s just coming back so I’d be patient 12:40 Chuncey Wiggins: Do scouts note if a player is at risk for PED use or are they only concerned with what happens on the field? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: They’ll suggest it in the report if there’s reason to believe, like a power spike/body change that doesn’t seem possible, or playing in a league where that happens a lot 12:42 JDB: who are the top top candidates to sign Victor? Would Boston be up there since they aren’t linked to any top 16 year old international guys? 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: Too early to project that. I’m curious how he’ll look in his public workout since the Cuban prospects often look a little different after training than they did years before when they were scouted more heavily. I saw Victor two years ago and he looked good, potential everyday CF profile, but didn’t blow me away. 12:44 Dores Up: Chances Nick Northcut gets to Vandy in the fall? 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: Better than 50% 12:45 ATL: Thoughts on Tatis this year? 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: Told you guys not to freak out 12:45 Eric: If Ryan Weathers doesn’t go to SD at pick 7, how far do you see him falling? 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: Next couple teams on him are 11-16 area, so something like that probably 12:45 Vegan Man!: Any more clarity on who the Yankees are looking at with pick 23? Thanks! 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: Heard they are heavy on Grant Lavigne, New Hampshire prep 1B, more for their 2nd pick but possible underslot at their first pick 12:46 Eric: Do you think it is likely that one of McClanahan, Swaggerty, or India is available at 14 for the Mariners? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 20% chance one of them gets there? Rumors of McClanahan and Swaggerty falling the last few days but 14 is a long way 12:47 Marcus: Xavier Edwards seemed to be a candidate for multiple spots in your mock draft. Is there a chance he’s strictly a speed and defense player like a Jarrod Dyson? 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: No, he’s strong and he can hit. High probability type 12:48 Alex: Bart is putting up great numbers at Ga Tech. What would his MLB eta be and what would hold that up more (bat or glove)? 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: late 2019 or 2020? Him and Madrigal should move fast. Bart for me is 45 hit, 55-60 power (65 raw), 40-45 runner, 55-60 glove, 65 arm 12:49 Eric: Has Hankins’ stock dropped more because of health or inconsistency this spring? 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: Health isn’t an issue at this point, his breaking ball has just backed up a lot since the summer and he’s passing physicals so there isn’t a clear explanation. 12:50 greg: You mentioned Cincy liked Bart, but if one of Bohm or Madrigal is there at #5, would the Reds take either of them over Singer? 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: We know they love Madrigal, but I don’t think he gets there 12:51 Michael: What kind of major leaguer do you think Austin Riley will be / could be? I’ve heard various opinions regarding his suggested ceiling. Do you think he’ll get a call this year? Thanks! 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: 45-50 hit, 60-65 power, 45-50 defense at 3B. Guessing it’s either this summer or 12 days into 2019. 12:53 Marcus: Is it difficult to project Mike Siani as a hitter, or are his future hit and power grades pointing toward average? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: 50-55 hit, 50 power, CF fit, something like that 12:54 Tacos: Should I be at all excited about what Gavin Lux and Zach Reks have been doing this season? 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: Lux has some tools so sure. Reks was a numbers-only senior sign that’s a smallish LF with no tools and a weird swing but huge numbers at Kentucky–probably an org guy. 12:56 Just A Guy: Side question: does The Board include all the 2018 draft prospects you guys have seen? That would be awesome, albeit a lot of work. 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: It will include hundreds of draft guys in a week or so 12:56 NYTT: How big of a project is Huascar Ynoa and what is his ceiling? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: up to 98 with a sinker, three above average pitches at times, command still needs to come a little more. Chance to be pretty good 12:57 Jeff: Billy Eppler is a great GM. He’s gotten the Angels more competitive and made monumental strides in building the farm. I haven’t been this excited about the minor league system in over a decade. I think the Angels have 5-6 really good prospects and some decent depth. Am I overrating the system because we’ve gotten so used to having bad to marginal talent for so long? 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: I mean it has been bad for awhile but it’s definitely solid now, with Jose Soriano, Trent Deveaux and Griffin Canning all moving up in the update to THE BOARD soon, so the job he’s done in that area has been effective so far, albeit with a low bar to clear 12:58 Vegan Man!: Thoughts on Yankees’ Garrett Whitlock? Solid start to the year and I believe they just bumped him up a level? Thanks! 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: Heavy sinker/slider type probably middle reliever 12:59 Acunamania: I’m an Atlanta Braves fan who wants the team to draft Jarred Kelenic. Please tell me this is happening 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: Well the teams don’t know who they’re drafting yet so literally no one can help you with this 12:59 Just A Guy: In cold weather states, do you guys utilize word of mouth from area scouts to value prospects that you can’t get eyes on? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Well we do that everywhere but Eric was just in PA, NJ, NY and Wisconsin so we also go there. 1:00 Mark: Someone said McKenzie Gore is a #4 starter – what say you? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Let’s all attack Someone! 1:00 Willie Calhoun: Juan Soto is currently pegged for a FV 50. Is that trending upwards? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Yes 1:01 Jonathan: How many prospects on the Board do you think will see FV changes during your first update? 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 20? 1:01 Ed: Please tell me no teams are seriously entertaining the idea of drafting Luke Heimlich? 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like team are being very cautious, but don’t know if anyone is thinking about it seriously or not 1:02 Jimmy: Buy or sell : Brendan Rodgers will have better career than tulo? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: Gonna have to SELL here but Rodgers will be good, needs to improve pitch selection a bit 1:03 Mike: Saw you mentioned Denaburg might go to school. Any chance Connor Scott or Seigler do? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like no and no 1:03 Just A Dude: Buy or sell the Braves going all-in this season and being major players at the deadline? 1:04 Kiley McDaniel: SELL probably more of adding role players and maintaining the core prospects if they stay in contention 1:04 Snapper Bean: Seems like its starting to solidify as 1. Mize 2. Bart 3. Bohm. Agree or disagree? 1:04 Kiley McDaniel: SELL there’s been some recent buzz that this top 3 projection may blow up, which we’re trying to wrap our heads around 1:05 Ed: You said a couple of weeks back that Travis Swaggerty has maturity issues? I understand you don’t want to talk about them but are they something to be seriously concerned about? 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: Dont think it’s a long term concern but it seems to be making people hesitate when their jobs and millions are on the line. His swing getting out of whack seems like a bigger deal, to be honest 1:06 Babe Lincoln: So did your opinion of Justin Dunn change when you saw him? Gonna be a solid 3/4? 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: More 4 starter or 7th/8th inning reliever but yeah he’s still solid, good arm with three pitches flashing average 1:08 Ham Boarski: Is Sean Newcomb quietly becoming an ace? 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: Kinda surprised more people don’t talk about him and it’s probably more of a #2 upside but he’s making more progress than I expected to see this year 1:08 Derek : Luis Patino is starting today for Fort Wayne. Have you seen him recently? Thanks for the chat! 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t, Eric has, and heard some good buzz about that little dude flinging it up there in the high 90s 1:09 Jimmy: What’s the knock on Jeremy Eirman ? He reminds me of Chris Owings … I’ve seen his numbers and they look legit 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: More power, less speed 1:09 Can’t read good: Buy or Sell Austin Riley at 3b for the braves in the WC game? 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: BUY this doesn’t seem nuts but it kinda would have in March 1:10 v2micca: Question about Kumar Rocker. Seems like a month ago he was projected to go in the top ten. In your latest mock, you have him going in the supplemental rounds. Did something happen with him that I missed to drop his stock? 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: I mean we literally spelled it out in the mock. He had a bad last start, he wants a lot of money, so once he slides past 15 or so, it’s either overpay in the 30’s (for top 15 money) or go to school. 1:11 Guest: are the pirates leaning towards a hitter or pitcher with the tenth pick? 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: Hearing more pitchers 1:11 New Bork: Is it true? Are you truly prepared to discuss *all* facets of baseball? 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: Man, sometimes you need to really look at the man in the mirror, ya know? 1:12 Desperate, Confused Marlins Fan: Why wont the Blue Jays free Danny Jansen? 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: #freedannyjansen 1:12 MATT BOYD: MATT BOYD 1:12 Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON. 1:12 Tommy: Kabloosh 1:12 Pasta: Rigatoni. Spaghetti. Linguine. Fettuccine. Lasagne. Macaroni. Elbow. Cannelloni. Penne. Tagliatelle. Ravioli . Bucatini. Orzo. Fusilli. Orecchiette. Farfalle. Cavatelli. 1:12 Mr. Nerdlington: I was looking through another site’s prospect archives the other day and I just want to thank you for not throwing around 80s like candy from a small town Fourth of July parade. 1:12 Wes: 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: That feels like the way to end it. Thanks for reading!