Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/29/19

1:07

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, I’m back home and just got back from lunch. Scout is in the backyard policing the squirrel/chipmunk population and occasionally glaring at me through the window when she wants a play partner.

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: Today Eric and I published our latest mock, this time the full 78 picks that go on day one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-3-0-two-rounds/

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: With that nav bar at the top of the page you can see what else we have planned for draft week, including a few things that are draft-related that aren’t up there

1:09

Kiley McDaniel: Lastly, your questions about which player we prefer at this moment for the draft, or any future draft, or for July 2 or for the minors can all be answered at THE BOARD, which is quickly reaching ludicrous size: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0

1:10

RP: If the Phillies go underslot for Hoese or Henderson, any names they could float to 71? That’s a long way.

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that would be tough. We don’t think they cut much from that pick and often when the savings+overage is about $1M and the gap to the next pick is long, it doesn’t all get spent on the 2nd pick. You’d need to target 4-6 players that all have a chance to get to 71 to have any real chance of getting one there. Often just taking what gets to you for slot is a better plan

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of questions like this bc we’ve learned that every fan wants every pick to both be best player available, highest upside, be overslot, won’t be a bust and set up another overslot pick. The Lake Wobegon Effect lives on!

1:13

Braník Best: Not sure if you’ll answer non-Draft questions, but is Seth Beer  becoming a dude?  45 FV in midseason update?

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: The more he hits, the higher the chance this is real

1:13

Jeb: If the first two picks for the Pirates went as your mock went, Priester and Henderson, would that be about as well as it could go for the Pirates with those two picks?

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that’s the floor for Priester and Henderson has a shot to go right around their first pick

1:14

Bo: Kyle McCann has filled Joey Bart’s shoes nicely at Georgia Tech. How does he project as a prospect? I see his name in the late second round in the Mock Draft 3.0

1:15

Kiley McDaniel: 4 defender with a 5 arm and 3 run, so it’s a longshot to be a long-term starting caliber defensive catcher, but he’s passable back there for now and it could be a 4 bat with 6 power and the approach/swing that fits his tools. A league average bat that can passably catch is crazy rare these days.

1:15

Tommy N.: Chances Padres pass on Vaughn if he falls to 6?

1:15

Kiley McDaniel: There is a chance, but it’s unlikely enough that we aren’t sure what they do

1:15

Tom: How significantly underslot would Stowers be for LA at 31? Considering you have them w/ Jones at 78 is it safe to assume they’re planning to push a high priced prep player down?

1:16

Kiley McDaniel: I think he would go in the 2nd round, so it would be below but probably not a crazy amount. Maybe $600K to $1M below?

1:17

Big Fan: Comps are stupid, but I honestly have no idea how good Bobby Witt Jr. could be.  Who does he have the potential to be as good as?

1:17

Kiley McDaniel: Mentioned this a few times, and it isn’t perfect, but Trevor Story is similar to what he could become

1:17

Vander: How likely is it that one of the big 6 bats at the top of the draft falls to 7? Who’s most likely, and would the Reds take him if it happened? What kind of scenarios should Reds fans be looking out for in order for this to happen?

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: I think CIN wants almost all of those six bats and would take any of them that get there, will go underslot if they don’t. Call it 10% chance they get one of them at this point?

1:18

lil jimmy: Michael Toglia finished strong. Do you think he moved up in the draft or still late second round area?

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: Some buzz he could sneak into the comp round, but would guess 2nd round.

1:18

Tyler: How likely do you think it is, as a percentage, that the White Sox will take Abrams?

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: 75%

1:19

BlueJayMatt: Any chance Lodolo or Manoah drops to Jays at pick 11? Would that be the pick if they did fall?

1:20

Kiley McDaniel: That’s another pick where it isn’t clear what gets to them because teams aren’t sure what happens 7-9. They could have their pick of all but one pitcher and we think they have Rutledge at the top of those with a shot to get there, but aren’t sure of the order behind that.

1:21

Ben: Noticed Rece Hinds’s position was changed to RF. Do scouts think it’s not likely he can play 3rd?

1:21

Kiley McDaniel: I’m sure he’ll start his pro career at 3B, but I think RF would be an industry consensus if we took a poll, though not 100%

1:21

Sean: Kiley, Thoughts on Brandon Lewis at UC-Irvine?

1:21

Kiley McDaniel: R/R likely 1B that’s performing, in play for the 4th-6th round range

1:22

Roger: Is Brett Baty’s age really going to an issue in the long run? Kelenic was older when he was drafted and yet you never hear anything about it now as he gets promoted to HiA.

1:24

Kiley McDaniel: Baty is 19.6 on draft day and Kelenic was 18.9. There’s lots of high picks that are 18.9ish and almost none that are 19.6ish. Also age matters a ton specifically for high school hitters in the first few rounds, so a few months will move a guy in a model.

1:25

Kiley McDaniel: Abrams is 18.7 and it doesn’t really come up, Kelenic was 18.9 and it came up some, Witt is 19.0 and it comes up a good bit…which is about how it should be, empirically

1:25

SpicyBoy: Why isn’t Kody Hoese more highly-regarded? Any chance he gets to #30?

1:26

Kiley McDaniel: Everyone passed on him last year at low six figures and now everyone thinks he’s worth at least $2 million, so there’s some CYA in not regarding him too high. Similar thing happened with Tim Anderson as a JC sophomore mid-1st rounder that wasn’t drafted as a freshman. I don’t think Hoese and Jonathan India are that different, which will be covered in an article this week.

1:26

Weenie: What are the chances Corbin Carroll falls to the Mariners at pick 20?

1:27

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 15%? I think if he got there, it wouldn’t be “falling” per se.

1:27

Roddy: Does CJ Abrams compare at all to Francisco Lindor at the time he was drafted?

1:28

Kiley McDaniel: Sort of? The raw tools are comparable, Abrams may be a bit better but he’s also about a year older than Lindor was on draft day. Lindor had clearly superior defensive actions and polish, probably would say instincts as well.

1:28

BBCNEW: Nick Hostetler said the Sox met with 6 potential choices at #3. Found 5 of them to be “fits”. How important are home visits to teams?

1:28

Kiley McDaniel: Some teams really value them, some teams do it more as a formality or to see if there’s a red flag

1:29

mark: What’s the scouting report on Jordan Brewer?

1:31

Kiley McDaniel: U. Michigan CF , late-bloomer came from a JC and has potential above power, at least plus speed, still a bit raw but everyday upside. Not as good as Buddy Reed at the same stage but that sort of profile that’s upside/raw/speed/defense

1:32

Phillip: In the Indians writeup on the mock, you say “model-driven prospects.” Could you expand on what this model is, and the possible variables that teams would include? (I assume age is a big one) Also, what is it they’re trying to measure in the model? Controlled-WAR years or something completely different? Thanks!

1:34

Kiley McDaniel: Essentially every team has a draft model now and they all differ in what the include and how they weigh different elements. We heard scuttlebutt about what that is and can obviously look at who they pick and get an idea of what is valued.

CLE leans toward young prep hitters and HS players in general who are famous/performed over the summer. Some clubs have more scouting report driven models where a high-ranking scout can put in a report and move a guy a lot, similarly to how things were typically run a decade ago, there’s just other factors weighed more than they used to be.

1:34

Bob: Will someone take a chance on Tommy Henry in the second round?

1:34

Kiley McDaniel: I think so

1:34

McKiley: Would Tigers take Abrams if he falls?

1:34

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so

1:35

Jason Braves: What type of player is Hoese, and what other positions could he possibly play besides 3b?

1:35

Kiley McDaniel: 50 hit, 55 raw/game, 40 run, 50 D, 50 arm

1:36

Kiley McDaniel: it isn’t loud but he’s performing and is pretty polished. A hair above average offense and avg D at 3B is very rare for a median projection on a draft prospect. India had basically those same grades with a 55 on the D and arm and 60 raw

1:37

Pat: Do you ever feel like you lose touch of what a true 50 grade is because of how much MiLB/amateur baseball you watch?

1:37

Kiley McDaniel: Not really, because I tend to go to games where there’s a lot of guys flashing plus tools and I have AA and AAA close enough to me that I can see MLB type guys pretty regularly.

1:39

Carl G: Why aren’t Jack Leiter and Josh Wolf included in the new mock?

1:39

Kiley McDaniel: Leiter is seen as almost unsignable for his talent level and Wolf just slipped off the end but could easily go in the 2nd round

1:39

Larry: Hey Kiley, I really like what I read about Matthew Lugo. It sounds like he has a bunch of 50 tools across the board. Do you envision his hit or power tools ever becoming a 60? And will he stick at shortstop? Thank you!

1:40

Kiley McDaniel: More 55s across the board and you obviously could see one or two 60s if things break right

1:40

Dan: What is the decision making process like during the late rounds of the draft? Obviously the GM or scouting director won’t really know anything about the random small school shortstop being picked in the 34th round. Is the show basically being run by area scouts at that point in the draft?

1:41

Kiley McDaniel: Director and crosscheckers run it at that point. Often times the GM isn’t in the room or is disengaged. Some rooms have 0 or 2-3 area scouts in them during the draft

1:41

40’s across the board: are there any true wild cards in this draft a la Kyler Murray last year?

1:41

Kiley McDaniel: I do not think the #1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft will be drafted on Monday.

1:42

Taylor: Blake Waldron sounds a whole lot like Tyler Skaggs coming out of the draft, although Skaggs wasn’t a popup guy, right? Could you compare and contrast the two pitchers? Thank you!

1:42

Kiley McDaniel: I mentioned Skaggs when I described the start to a guy who hadn’t seen Walston before. Sounds like Walston has less track record and more curveball than Skaggs at the same point.

1:42

Devon: Is Spencer Torkelson still the early favorite to be a top pick in 2020?

1:43

Kiley McDaniel: Another R/R first baseman, so let Andrew Vaughn be a guide that this is hard to go 1-1 even if you go bonkers for 3 years.

1:44

Kiley McDaniel: RHPs Emerson Hancock and Cole Wilcox at UGA and C Patrick Bailey at NC State are in that top tier for us with Torkelson.

1:44

Big Joe Mufferaw: Would Jasson Dominguez go #1 or #2 in the Draft?

1:44

Kiley McDaniel: yeah probably 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.

1:44

WSox: Is Maurice Hampton a signability concern with is FBall commitment to LSU?

1:45

Kiley McDaniel: Everyone I’ve talked with thinks he signs

1:45

Jeff: Might teams look at Vanderbilt reliever Fisher (Fischer? i forget) as a SP next spring?

1:45

Kiley McDaniel: I would, I hope they put him in the rotation. If Vandy loses just a couple guys to the draft from their commits this year, they could be historically loaded next year.

1:47

Bossy: Thoughts on UCSB LHP Ben Brecht?

1:47

Kiley McDaniel: 86-94 depending on the day, huge lefty with plane and avg-ish stuff when he’s on, some feel

1:48

Love: You mention the White Sox floating some premium talent to their second round pick. Do you anticipate significant savings with an Abrams selection? What is the likelihood of those targets even getting to 45?

1:48

Kiley McDaniel: Abrams likely goes 6th if the White Sox don’t take him, so the thinking is they could offer him between 5th and 6th slot, combine that savings with their overage and have about $2M to spend later

1:49

Kiley McDaniel: Or, between $1.5M and $2.0M

1:51

Billy Beane: Last year I watched the draft with THE BOARD open and after like 2 rounds, I was just sorting by speed grade, power grade, brothers of big leaguers, and switch hitters and loudly announcing my preference for my team to pick those players. What do you think of this as a talent acquisition strategy for a fan?

1:51

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t think of a better approach

1:51

Ricky Bobby: You guys have Brett Baty ranked really high despite his age, which suggests you guys must really believe in the bat. How does he compare to a guy like Tristan Casas, who the Red Sox took 26th last year. Would Justin Morneau be a good player comp for his high end upside?

1:52

Kiley McDaniel: Baty can play 3B, at least for now and Casas was 1B only. Baty may have a slightly better bat, but at the plate they aren’t super different.

1:53

Norman: Does the Carter Stewart decision affect the negotiating situation of college seniors at all?  Could they use Japan or Korea as an alternative to improve their bargaining leverage?

1:53

Kiley McDaniel: Could, but likely won’t this year

1:53

Darren: When you update the board, will there be a non-Adley player above a 50 FV?

1:54

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so

1:54

Eh,: Do teams have a big board in a sense? How do they determine the they decide at what point they would take an underslot deal and allocate it in the later rounds?

1:54

Kiley McDaniel: Might decide early but often don’t make the call until right before the draft starts, or during the draft

1:55

Colby Johnson: How does Jackson Rutledge compare to Nate Pearson at the same stage? I’ve read that there are some questions about his command/control, whereas Nate was always thought to have pretty good control even as an amateur. Thoughts?

1:56

Kiley McDaniel: Rutledge is bigger and has a better breaker, has been more consistent in his draft year in terms of stuff and control.

1:56

Help: The chat will end soon

1:56

Guest: WELCOME TO YOUR DOOM

1:57

henryv: Kiley is currently stalking a 17 year old pitching prospect with a white panel van that says “Free Prospect Evaluations”  on the side in spray paint.  Chat is now delayed.

1:59

Cookies: oatmeal raisin or chocolate chip cookies?  please explain your selection using no less than 500 of your finest words.

1:59

Kiley McDaniel: both, duh

1:59

kevinthecomic: Any noteworthy updates on Victor Mesa Jr., Victor Victor Mesa, or Victor Victor Mesa Mesa Sr. Jr.?

1:59

Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

1:59

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

1:59

Kiley McDaniel: Back to the phones!

We hoped you liked reading Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/29/19 by Kiley McDaniel!

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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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