Kiley McDaniel Chat – 6/19/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! I’m on the couch and Scout is on her bed eyeballing my lunch, which is leftover meat I grilled last night

Kiley McDaniel: (andouille sausage, shrimp, chicken thighs for those curious)

Kiley McDaniel: I would normally link to all the stuff I wrote the last week but I was commanded to not do stuff this week

Kiley McDaniel: but here’s the FG prospects page where all our stuff is, including the graduation monitor so you know when guys will graduate from our lists: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: and also Eric and I have quietly done lots of work on the 2020 draft rankings, which one scout called “absurd” yesterday and I wasn’t sure if that was good or bad: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Kiley McDaniel: showcase season has begun, as Eric was at the first event of the summer and I’m going to the next two (PDP and college team USA)

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Owen: Any day 1 guys that won’t sign?

Kiley McDaniel: haven’t heard anything specific on a stone cold won’t sign and it’s too early for rumors to be much more than posturing

Kiley McDaniel: the exception would be the yearly occurrence or two of the post-verbal-deal-physical where something new is found, b/c that usually the source of at least half the first 2 day guys that don’t sign

Kiley McDaniel: I bet that happens a half dozen times per year and 1-2 of those can’t be resolved, but haven’t heard of any yet

Kiley McDaniel: and lots of post 10th round HS players have already been announced, heard there are a good bit more coming

Mike: Hey Kiley – are you planning to update the BOARD for J2? Any Red Sox targets?

Kiley McDaniel: there will be more added to the J2 board but probably not as much as last year. we can have those guys pegged for team lists after instructs and most amateur scouts (from the 29 teams that didn’t sign the players) haven’t seen the players for over a year in most cases. seems a little silly to go insane about how good they are on 7/2 then have them really jumbled again in October. The ones that matter, the top guys, are the ones we set on there months ago

dylanram: Did the Padres spend too much on Hudson Head?

Kiley McDaniel: we’ll find out in a few years.  we were the high guys on him and had him 90th overall. granted we’ve never seen him before, so there’s a solid error bar on just video/sources on a popup hitter, given that the opinions don’t flow as much when guys aren’t widely known and we haven’t seen him on the showcase circuit. but between the 22nd/23rd slot for a guy most teams had in the 3rd round is pretty steep, though SD has a pretty good track record when they’re out on a limb on a guy

David: How much do you miss publicly trolling and otherwise humiliating Cistulli?

Kiley McDaniel: i’m not sure he can be humiliated? but yes

Jim Leyland Palmer: Who would you rather have the next 5 years: Josh Naylor or Dom Smith?

Kiley McDaniel: lean smith

Miggy: Adonis Medina a mlb starter in your eyes?

Kiley McDaniel: this offseason it was probably yes, so far this year it’s now leaning towards probably no

Alan: I know you guys were not high on the Braves draft from what you wrote at the end of day two. Does their approach and signing from day three change anything?

Kiley McDaniel: yep it obviously looks better in retrospect by going underslot on almost every pick and adding some solid HS guys past the 10th. go back to the last chat for my explanation why not liking a draft still could mean it’ll end up being on of the best. grabbing some lottery tickets helps that

Go Cubs: Thoughts on Ronny Mauricio’s upside?

Kiley McDaniel: could be like really, really good. he was on of the guys that, in the post-draft top 100 re-ranking, we had to ask ourselves “would this guy go 1st or 2nd in the draft if the current version of him was eligible”

Kiley McDaniel: and obviously, being ranked back-to-back with Witt says he’d go 2nd or 3rd. almost a full year younger than Witt, performing in Low-A, switch hitter, potential above offense and defense but more of the long, lean smooth athlete than the more power/explosion type Witt is.

Baloo: Gut feeling, do you think Matt Boyd will be traded?  What would you expect as a return, in terms of Top X prospects and/or FV?

Kiley McDaniel: i’m in the middle of doing the trade value rankings right now, so in like a week or so i’ll have a much better answer to this question

Miggy: Fantasy question: preferred long term SS- Chisholm, Brujan, Hoerner?

Kiley McDaniel: gimme brujan

Kiley McDaniel: and for other questions like this that i don’t answer, using the future grades on hit/game power/speed and rounding up/down on age/performance will probably 90% match my answers here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Deivi Garcia: I’m only 64th on THE BOARD? Did you see my line last night?!

Kiley McDaniel: we also continue to be aware of your size. if you were 6’4/220 you’d be about where you think you should be, like top 30

Baloo: Do you think some part of the Mariners taking Juan Then as the return for EE is them hoping to get some info on the Yankees’ pitcher dev practices?

Kiley McDaniel: no

bb: So, Mr. Sunshine, what bums you out?

Kiley McDaniel: hmmm well mostly like fan bases that have had lots of success complaining about the one weaker spot in their org. or bill simmons having a podcast where he just complains about his fantasy team and how boston has been robbed of multiple titles by the refs

Charlie: You aren’t hearing anything on Dalquist/Thompson not signing with the CWS right? Little weird to me the top 3 picks haven’t signed when everyone else has they should know exactly how much $$ they have right?

Kiley McDaniel: i don’t know that this is what’s happening, but it’s common for the overslot HS pick to be the last one to sign, once it’s clear the absolute max you can offer and it’s a take it or leave it situation

Jasson Dominguez: Would I be ready to play in the states immediately after signing?

Kiley McDaniel: i mean you should be in the GCL right now but that won’t happen. given the talent, i think the expectation is to get to the GCL and/or Pulaski next year, Charleston in 2021, then 2022 he could really move if it happens how many are exepcting

Kiley McDaniel: the hype for Dominguez is on par with Maitan, maybe higher and the next guy that was at this level as an amateur may have been Sano? Wander Franco was also right there. Everyone was worried about Vlad Jr’s body so he was a notch below until his debut, then it was clear his body didn’t really matter.

Kiley McDaniel: Maitan and Sano and Vlad Jr. all had concerns the body would blow up and they all basically have. Franco was maybe too small/erratic/not a SS but that clearly doesn’t affect things much. I’m cautious to overhype, but that’s the horse race amongst the all-time J2 guys at the same stage

Kiley McDaniel: Even guys like Eloy and Gleyber weren’t 30 out of 30 teams agree they are the tops on signing day, but consensus was they were. Devers was another good consensus bat type that everyone was sold on

Alan: Who is the better long term catcher? Contreras or Langeliers?

Kiley McDaniel: Both definitely catchers, Langeliers is a little more advanced but Contreras has the offensive upside/performance/age edge. I also think his frame will age a bit better, no hamate injury, just a lot of little edges that add up.

Xolo: What is keeping Campusano from making a jump up THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: he has an up arrow next to his name, is somewhere around 200th overall, give or take https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Beef Lastname: Why did Brayan Rocchio jump so far on THE BOARD (110 to 82 I think) before even debuting in A- this year?

Kiley McDaniel: the reports/Eric’s eyes from extended have been very positive

Kiley McDaniel: Wander Franco also was rising coming out of extended last year

Mason: Does the 55 fv Fastball on Juan Then take into account reports that he is topping out at 96 mph currently? Do you think the Mariners did well on their return for Edwin?

Kiley McDaniel: for reference, 92-94, touching 96 is an average MLB fastball for a RHP. maybe a touch above if you separate RHS and RHR

Alan: Trying to get more information on Mahki Backstrom. Looks like he was in the PG All American game last year, so I was surprised he wasn’t on the board. What do you think about him?

Kiley McDaniel: 6’5 with longer limbs and big power, didn’t perform this spring, fringy D at 1B/LF

Kiley McDaniel: we’ve seen him, that’s just not a profile you want to pay big for out of HS

Beef Lastname: Deivi Garcia. A 45+ FV jumping to 63 on THE BOARD. Just struck out 15 of 21 batters last night. Thoughts? What’s the tippy top upside here for a guy listed at 5’9″?

Kiley McDaniel: I think him and STL 1st rounder Zach Thompson may be in that McCullers/Rich Hill area where they never give you 180-220 IP but can give you a really good 80-120 IP depending on the role. Those guys are 55 or 60 FV in production, can be even better if healthy for the playoffs when that type is even more valuable

Kiley McDaniel: so a fringe contender could value that player similarly to a 3-4 win player given the leveraged playoff upside

Adam: If the Braves get serious in their pursuit of relief help, which prospect between Christian Pache and Drew Waters are they more likely to part with?

Kiley McDaniel: Given how they’ve approached things so far, I don’t think they trade a top 100-200 level guy until they think they are knocking on the door and are 1-2 players away from being 1st or 2nd best in the NL

Kiley McDaniel: I just checked and our projected standings have them 2nd in the NL, but 11 games behind the Dodgers

Kiley McDaniel: so I think next season may be the year ATL feels like moving the big chips in, after 2 years of evaluating the system and letting the best assets turn into what they’re going to be

Clinkers: Any genuine concern on Luciano’s hit tool yet? Seemed like there were whispers about it in extended spring

Kiley McDaniel: See this is what I mean. Dude is 17 with bonkers power, if you go through THE BOARD he’s literally the only 17 year old position player on the planet that’s a 50 FV…now he’s played two pro games and this is your question?

Kiley McDaniel:

Kiley McDaniel: here’s video of him in extended/instructs hitting rockets.

Clinkers: Surprised to see Woods Richardson dominate (at least in terms of K/9, K/BB) the SAL at age 18?  He trending up?

Kiley McDaniel: Not surprised, we stuffed him pretty good this offseason. Still think he’s behind most of the 1st round arms from last year, but not by much

Matthew: What made you decide to move Kevin Alcantara to the top of the Yankees 45 fv tier

Kiley McDaniel: also standing out as a 16 year old in the DSL, and the type (6’4) that usually is a bit of a later bloomer. the tools are similar to Lewis Brinson and Brinson looked like an uncoordinated giraffe somewhat often until about 21. I saw Brinson at 18 and he was not a good hitter, it was all potential. Look at this from 16-year-old Alcantara last week: https://streamable.com/sm0tz

Every single Mets fan: What would you put the odds of Allan signing at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: 65%

Purple Mays Haze: Willi Castro has been given a Game Power of 20/45 but he’s hit two HRs at 439 and 457 ft. Should that be boosted?

Kiley McDaniel: Game power is how many homers, raw power is how far

D Back fan: Hey Kiley, thanks for doing the chat. You mentioned the d backs targeting vertical arm slot pitchers in the draft. Is a better strategy to target low arm slot guys and move them to a vertical arm slot to get more spin and break? Did the d backs miss an arbitrage opportunity by targeting vertical guys?

Kiley McDaniel: lol no. good luck changing a bunch of arm slots or arm actions. i can’t even think of one success story where there was a notable change made

Kiley McDaniel: there’s plenty of little ones, like Verlander with Houston going a little higher or Kyle Wright with Vandy going a little lower, some guys will make their hand break a little earlier, etc. but big changes like short arm action becomes medium length one may have literally never worked?

Kiley McDaniel: and your premise is flawed that somehow moving a low slot guy to vertical, if even possible, would somehow be better with the new slot than guys that are used to it?

Paul: Am I seeing this correctly that the Mets only have ~2.5 million to offer Allan? Will he take that?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the hot rumor now. Good thing for Boras he got that Hudson Head deal because this Matt Allan situation is not looking good for him. Lots of chatter out there on this topic.

Inter politics: Will Eric be doing a summary of his PGN looks?

Kiley McDaniel: It’ll be folded into THE BOARD and largely already has. There’s also reports being added as we see the guys, but, for instance, Bobby Witt Jr swung and missed I think 6 times at PGN last year? A lot of these single looks aren’t that useful, but in the scope of a whole summer, they are.

Jimmy: Is there a link to the updated Top 100? I thought you alluded to a new list with up arrows and down arrows?

Kiley McDaniel: it’s on THE BOARD, with this article about the update: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/weve-updated-our-prospect-rank…

Kiley McDaniel: ALSO:

Kiley McDaniel: the gawd sean dolinar has adjusted the minimums so the stat leaderboard widget here is now even more useful: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: and as always you can expand that to the stats/scouting leaderboards, include non prospects or apply filters/sorts to get exactly what you’re looking for

Avila not Avila: Michigan fan/alum who’s basking in what has been a really fun run.  Do you believe it’s possible for a northern school to become a regular threat to make the super regionals or are they destined to pop up years only?

Kiley McDaniel: they have 6 legit top 5 round prospects (3 this year, 3 for 2020) and some solid depth. Only a handful of programs, like single digits, have that but most of the ones that do are perennial powers. I think they’re one of the better bets to be interlopers every 5 years or so, but that may be all that’s possible long-term

Kiley McDaniel: especially given that the big 10 thinks baseball is a waste of it’s time, financially-speaking

Mike: Kiley you got to eat some vegetables too man

Kiley McDaniel: oh i do! about to roast more brussels/carrots and sautee some peppers/onions. I normally eat the grilled meats in a lettuce wraps with some avocado and pickled peppers, sriracha, something like that

Mary: What would be your approach to international signings this year if you were the Braves? Just ignore it all together and put resources elsewhere, or do you try to find players for 10k?

Kiley McDaniel: well you have to sign players to fill out the DSL and help the GCL, so punting isn’t an option but I also think signing more bulk by going under in the top 10 rounds and going over on HS players in rounds 10+ was intentional to some degree given the lack of prospect depth created by the int’l program

Kiley McDaniel: most int’l programs have a couple “we signed this guy for $30k and he just magically got better, so now he’s a prospect” and ATL basically can’t do that, so some ~400k HS kids after the 10th can accomplish it in a different way

Joe: Any idea why Braves moved Demeritte off 2b, where he was a plus defender to the outfield, which put even more pressure on his bat?

Kiley McDaniel: he was not a plus defender at 2B

Brian: Are you doing the trade value series again this year?

Kiley McDaniel: oh yes, working on it now

Dominik : Why are GMs scouting draft top prospects? Just showing interest? They can’t possibly see more than the scouting director, right? Especially if they are ivy league non baseball lifers

Kiley McDaniel: You’d be surprised how many GMs are making most of, if not every single pick in the draft

Oyster Burns: concerned about royce lewis?

Kiley McDaniel: heard from a scout that he’s changed his swing and it’s a little bit of a mess right now. he may get a downgrade but i’m not worried longterm

Greg: Vaughn Grissom was ranked on the board, but on the guys who weren’t in your list of ranked players, who is your favorite of the Braves day three picks?

Kiley McDaniel: Tyler Owens is really interesting. He’s a 5’8 RHP that was 92-94 t96 in the summer and most of the spring, then we heard late that he was 95-97 for a couple innings in a pre draft all star game

Kiley McDaniel: obviously the size limits him, but there’s an above breaker and he knows how to pitch, so it could be a another Victor Vodnik utility power arm type

Yanks19: The Yankees have a number of high ceiling young latin outfielders. Not including Jasson Dominguez, who would be your top 3 in order at this point from Salinas, Pereira, Cabello, Alcantara and Anthony Garcia.

Kiley McDaniel: i mean the current team list is a great source for this: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Trenton Dude: Jasson Dominguez has been heavily hinting about joining the yankees on his Instagram (answering questions and hiding ‘most’ letters of Yankees) pics with yankee shirts. Is this toeing a thin line, or all fair game?

Kiley McDaniel: MLB had told teams it does not care about early deals, even though it is outlawed in the rules

Rev: Does D. Garcia being only 5’ 9” scare you? He’s starting to dominate AA at Trenton but will he hold up long term being that size?

Kiley McDaniel: height doesn’t bother us for hitters or pitchers, really, as long as the power is there and often these days it is. the build worries us a little more, particularly for SP

Parts and Gleyber: Any update on Mitch Haniher’s ruptured testicle?

Kiley McDaniel: (throws up in mouth)

Sloth: Hey you guys!

THE BOARD! Man: THE BOARD! Man gets paid.

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: see you guys next week!