Kiley McDaniel Chat – 6/5/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. I was trying to finishing editing our podcast we recorded last night about the first 10 rounds but wasn’t able to get it down. Should go up shortly after this is done. about 85 minutes with 2-3 minutes of our thoughts on each club, we’ll throw in time stamps so you can finally know how much we hate your team

Kiley McDaniel: any of the rest of our draft content interest you? it’s in the widget for draft week on the mainpage at https://www.fangraphs.com/

Kiley McDaniel: and pretty much anything else you’ll need can be found at THE BOARD, which was up to the second with who has been drafted where, but round 11 just started so now I need to go update that after this chat as well

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Kiley McDaniel: To your questions:

LudeBurger: Kiley, dude, bro, woah. How? Man, you’re a monster for doing this chat after Monday’s epoque

Kiley McDaniel: Once you don’t sleep that much, spewing out thoughts in all mediums just kinda runs together

Larry: This Braves draft … can you provide reasons for optimism?

Kiley McDaniel: You could probably sense in our day 1 review that we weren’t as enthused by the value the Braves got at their picks as we were with other clubs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-review/

Kiley McDaniel: that said, taking Langeliers a few picks before we would is kinda splitting hairs and he has been hot lately. Shewmake was more comp to early 2nd for us because there isn’t a 60 tool and the swing needs a tweak, but he’s exactly the kind of guy that does well in models because an infielder that’s performed for three years in the SEC and two summer for team USA is really likely to have a big league future of some kind and give you a positive ROI. Philip was likely below slot and Eric wasn’t on him much, but there’s some tools and a utility upside, small chance for more.

Kiley McDaniel: So, even a club where we weren’t enthused about any one of the picks, it isn’t hard to imagine them ending up with one of the best draft if all these top picks hit like a 60-80 percentile outcome, which isn’t impossible for 2-3 guys to do

Kiley McDaniel: and when you can’t trade picks and Langeliers/Shewmake were not getting to their next picks…it’s kinda splitting hairs about value in that way.

Kiley McDaniel: Going back to the picks coming off the board now

Kiley McDaniel: The 11th round is typically the guy you saved or sometimes hid for a 125k to 500k bonus, since it comes with a 125k discount on the pool once you’re past the 10th round

Kiley McDaniel: Dachsbach to BAL is a solid power bat that is likely overslot. McMillon to DET has 70 raw power but also up to 99 on the mound and likely is a pro pitcher, but hit/command have been issues. Feole to SDP has a plus hook from the left side, low 90’s, could probably handle multiple innings long-term.

Kiley McDaniel: SFG took Trevor McDonald, pop up prep arm, likely relief, but up to 95 with an above breaker at times

Kiley McDaniel: PIT took Jase Bowen multi-sport prep athlete, guessing overslot there as well

Kiley McDaniel: Carter Bins to SEA, was our top college guy left on the board, not sure what happened there but he was a 3rd-5th rounder for us

Kiley McDaniel: Vaughn Grissom to the Braves was the SS on Riley Greene’s team and picked the right team to be on so he was scouted a lot when he emerged this spring. Probably 3B long term, but solid avg raw, athlete, feel to hit, we like him

Kiley McDaniel: okay back to the chat

Chunky Gee: Jon Daniels says the Rangers haven’t changed draft philosophies, but after being one of the most prep-heavy and tools-oriented teams in recent years, they went mostly college in Day 1 and 2, and with more refined/quality hit tool guys.  Is this just a matter of who was available, or are the Rangers getting away from the toolsheds at the top of the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Usually don’t assume a strategic change after a handful of high picks, but it would appear there’s at least a slight adjustment, similar to KCR last year

Kiley McDaniel: sorry just stepped outside to see what scout was doing and she was digging her deepest hole yet and was really excited about it

Matthew Allan: Why would I be willing to sign for less than my reported asking price to the Mets instead of going to college?

Kiley McDaniel: We heard $4M for awhile then heard some whispers of slightly below that a couple times the week leading up to the draft. So if it’s $3.75M, I wouldn’t be surprised

Greg: Had you heard of Stephen Paolini before the Braves took him in the fifth round?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope and we asked a few clubs (don’t really have time to comprehensively chase down every name) and they knew the name but weren’t on him.

JK: When’s the next mock?

Kiley McDaniel: So we have 181 players ranked for the 2020 draft and an update coming to the other boards with player we don’t think will sign and that will be live with the click of a button…I hope that’s enough for you

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Larry: Atlanta will send Michael Harris out as a hitter — what’s his upside there? Any major concerns about him?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s top 5 rounds both ways and I don’t know this with Harris but usually in this scenario the kid wants to hit first. Probably better as a pitcher but can’t hurt to find out how the bat plays and save some miles on the arm

jballallen: Who in this year’s draft would be the most likely to contact an NPB team about a deal?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably Matt Allan, but I wouldn’t anticipate that

Paps: On the next 100+ prospects update, will you be adjusting tool grades or just moving players around?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll adjust them where they need to be, but it usually will just be  small handful of player notably changing tool grades in the first month of the season

Kiley McDaniel: well I guess we’re at 2 months now

Kvn: Any trends you noticed in the draft that surprised you?

Kiley McDaniel: Not that surprised me and some of these are in the day 1 recap or the podcast that will go up soon. Arizona taking Trackman friendly high slot pitchers was one, Texas going college was one, Braves as discussed was one, NYM under a former agent going bold was one, Miami under a new director taking 3 guys we liked up top was one

Kiley McDaniel: was just forwarded a report that Allan’s bonus is expected to be $3M, so that’s much lower than $4M but also not confirmed

Connor: Are there any teams who you think still have some money to make a run at a high bonus guy today?

Kiley McDaniel: Teams keep this pretty close to the vest since they don’t want agents knowing how much they have but also the vast majority of clubs don’t save much more pool money than like $500k if they sign their top 10 rounders

Kiley McDaniel: last note on an 11th rounder, BOS took Sebastian Keane, guessing that will be a good bit north of 125k, Mass prep RHP flashed above average stuff at times

hooha: Who do you think is a good comparable to Bryson Stott?  Do you or Eric have a scouting report of him up?

Kiley McDaniel: the high end one that gets mentioned a lot is Brandon Crawford, but there’s some work to do to get there. All the reports are on THE BOARD here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

John: Is lack of parity becoming a problem in baseball? Given the potential dynasties the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers have built, it seems like there is less room for small market teams to remain competitive beyond a short window.

Kiley McDaniel: Well those teams are all rich and or smart and a lot of non competing teams are poorer and or less smart

Kiley McDaniel: you can interpret that reality a number of different ways

Paps: Madrigal to Birmingham. What should I be looking for?

Kiley McDaniel: me going to see that team

Jim Leyland Palmer: Would it stand to reason to think that Greene should move up at a similar rate to Jarred Kelenic? His hit tool his superior, no?

Kiley McDaniel: Similar, about the same, more power, less defense. Would never say to expect a prep kid to get to High-A at 19 because even if they earn it, you often spent the whole year in Low-A for your first full season

RickyLouBobby: Thank you for all the draft coverage. You guys were my favorite resource.

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks!

Ballsandgutters : I used to predict the Pirates draft pretty well,  this year I wasn’t close.   You think their biometrics heavy approach is creeping into who they draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty much everyone predicted they would take Priester so maybe you should just start copying us

Will Wilson: So far everything I’m reading says he’s a safe pick. Does that just mean he’s projected to be a league average 2b in two years (a good return) or is there still all star upside here?

Kiley McDaniel: more 2-3 win guy that’s versatile and 2-3 years away I’d guess

Andy: Does Song’s FV change if he starts his career at 24 years old?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really

RickyLouBobby: Surprised Mourice Hampton priced himself out of th draft?

Kiley McDaniel: real wide range on the question of if he can hit and most teams thought no

Mickey Callaway: How did the Mets manage to get Baty and Allan? If they are confident he’ll sign, why didn’t other teams use their draft pool the same way?

Kiley McDaniel: Risky prep righty with an unclear but high number isn’t exactly every club’s cup of tea

Kiley McDaniel: but also the more modern front offices are…how do i say this delicately…kinda afraid of risk when a safer alternative is available

Kiley McDaniel: even though upside scales to risk in most situations

Kiley McDaniel: if you’re making 7 figures and you’ll keep doing it by avoiding mistakes rather than chasing risk, well any of us could make decisions that way as well

Everyone: Why haven’t you explained yet how all of the players my team drafted are underrated?

Vander: The Dayton Dragons will most likely break camp with three players that all have similar defensive profiles in Rece Hinds, Debby Santana and Tyler Callihan. Where would you play those three in the same field? Who of that group are you most excited and least excited about?

Kiley McDaniel: They’re definitely not sending Rece Hinds straight to Low-A

Kiley McDaniel: and Callihan may get there at the end of the year but can’t imagine he starts there either

Kiley McDaniel: if you mean 2020, I’m still not sure Hinds is there and I think he ends up in RF long-term

Kiley McDaniel: and rotating 3B/DH isn’t a problem

Jeff Passan: Did you enjoy the lighthearted jabs about your thirst, and terrible jokes Passan tweeted during the 1st round?

Kiley McDaniel: it’s consistent with my experience with jeff

narvain: Do you guys get upset when someone you had ranked kind of high is still out there on day 3 or just kind of shrug it off?

Kiley McDaniel: it’s almost always signability or medical. sometimes we miss guys, like i think we’ve said we were probably a little heavy on Lugo and a little light on Mears but there’s other guys like Will Holland where I think teams may be overreacting to a bad spring, unless he’s overslot

AJ: Do any of the undrafted guys still on THE BOARD have a chance of signing? After taking all the college seniors, do the Mets take one or two as insurance if Allan doesn’t sign?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m sure a few of them will sign, but we generally expect them all to go to school. For the 35s, some of them may be signable for 125-250k so those wouldn’t shock me

Brian: Fangraphs seemed lower on Logan Wyatt than some of the other draft experts. Is it just that you do not envision him growing into more

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t like the swing, don’t think there’s more than 50-55 raw power and he hasn’t been tapping into it.  I know I’m fine being the low guy on that.

Phillie Phanatic: Dylan Carlson! Please please please tell me he’s in store for a big jump! I can’t help myself but see Carlos Beltran in him. Am I crazy?!

Kiley McDaniel: I mean sorta but he’ll be moving up

Kvn: So when’s the 2020 mock draft come out?

Kiley McDaniel: not even sure how to do the draft order

Kiley McDaniel: just make your own order and pick them in the order we have them

libre: How far ahead of *everyone* in *everything* are the Dodgers and Astros?

Kiley McDaniel: wouldn’t go that far, but they are ahead of most teams in most things

Kiley McDaniel: they are behind in some, too

libre: How much better is the 2020 draft class than this one?

Kiley McDaniel: sounds like it’ll be a good bit better, SEC heavy and lots of HS velo from pitchers but it’s hard to be sure of much this far out. Will feel much better in a few months about what this class is

Chris: When can drafted players be traded? Could a team trade a ptbnl and let another team select their draft choice or would the mlb punish teams for that?

Kiley McDaniel: no ptbnl, can trade once the season ends

Chris: In what round do you stop getting draft compensation for an unsigned player? First round only or first pick for every team or something else?

Kiley McDaniel: top 3 rounds. there’s a reason NYM took Allan there

libre: Which prospect most needs to have deleted his Twitter feed a la Josh Hader?

Kiley McDaniel: there is one in this draft class i was told about, but i think he deleted the tweets in question

Jeremy: Is Jarren Duran for real? What changed about his approach between college and the pros that’s made him so effective?

Kiley McDaniel: mentioned in this article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/swing-changers-the-shift-to-emphasizing-bi…

Kiley McDaniel: west coast college approach neutered his upside

Kiley McDaniel: also here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-26-prospects-boston-red-sox/

Appa Yip Yip: If you could have one 80 grade tool, but not for sports purposes just for like, everyday Kiley McDaniel prospect  evaluator for FanGraphs stuff, which would you choose and why?

Kiley McDaniel: seeing the future duh

Jamfan: Kiley, can you give us Cub fans some good stuff on Herz, Schlaffer, and/or Hendrie, our 8, 9, and 10th round picks?

Kiley McDaniel: touching on them in the pod. Hendrie athletic JC backstop, Schlaffer solid avg stuff popup northern prep arm, Herz showed flashes this year of top 5 rounds, also a popup guy

LioneeR: Thank you for elaborating on that Braves question at 12:10.  I thought you were going to go to a perfectly reasonable “check what I’ve already written answer”!

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I mean I could do that but also the concept of “I hate this draft” happens with multiple fan bases every year and is pretty silly

Kiley McDaniel: so felt like I should address that

Steve: Do you expect the Mets to be able to sign Allan?

Kiley McDaniel: yes

Jon G: Who is the dude reading out names for the Braves on days 2 and 3?

Kiley McDaniel: Coach Buck! he’s the best

Reed: Giants draftee Simon Whiteman from Yale swiped 34/34 this year after going 9/14 his junior season. Kind of a big jump?

Kiley McDaniel: tbh the only though i had on him was the name whiteman coming from yale is kinda funny

Brad: Possible to add a draft ticker for next year?

Kiley McDaniel: what is that? we have all the picks on the board, so you’re just missing the guys that aren’t very good

sid bream: What’s up with the Pirates taking Florida State’s CF JC Flowers as a pitcher and he’s only thrown 20 innings in his career there

Kiley McDaniel: also covered in the podcast. he was a 2-way guy in HS that some preferred as a pitcher then, he just mostly hit at FSU and hit 97 down the stretch so looks like the pitcher camp may have been right

Sam: The draft is so hard to evaluate right away.  Are the Yankees picks underwhelming, or fine?

Kiley McDaniel: i’d even say good

Matt : Is more in depth july 2 coverage going to start soon after the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, but also going like 50 deep on that market doesn’t seem like the best use of our time when we can have much better reports in instructs in the fall…most int’l scouts haven’t seen these guys for at least 6-12 months so the reports are really iffy

Kiley McDaniel: (because they get early deals and disappear from being widely scouted)

Tone: Re: Matthew Allan, do you have any idea if that just emerged as the Mets’ strategy overnight when they saw Allan was still available and confirmed his #? Or did they really gun for it from the start, knowing going into the draft that Baty and Wolf could be underslot at their first two picks?

Kiley McDaniel: sounds like the decision was made after the Wolf pick/overnight

pelkey: lots of braves questions, i see. but that just makes me think they actually DID have as bad a draft as i feel they did

Kiley McDaniel: There’s always a few fanbases outraged after the draft about how their picks weren’t publicly ranked as high as they wanted, or not the right type or demographic. Since that happened and it’s a big shift from a process that worked pretty well in the past just purely looking at results, I can see why they’re reacting. Changing doesn’t mean getting worse, obviously.

Guest: Are you going to do farm system updates after the draft or make us plug the numbers in ourselves

Kiley McDaniel: we will be doing it, that’s a big reason why we add all the top 10 rounders to the systems so we can have that done before the signing deadline, then adjust for the 2-3 guys that don’t sign

Steve: Can you briefly explain how draft models work?

Kiley McDaniel: they’re all different, but the idea is that there’s so much information on these players that a model can synthesize it all dispassionately and also take into account historic trends (like HS bats that are young are better than you think) and make a board for you

Kiley McDaniel: some teams slavishly let the model basically make the picks, other use it for a sanity check, some let the scouting reports make up over half the model and basically just have the model round up/down on the reports using all the other data. Some basically marginalize the scout’s opinion or box them into only being worth a small range of $x to $y because he doesn’t have certain peripherals regardless of the report

Kiley McDaniel: so we’ll mention model team but try to say like CLE like young HS bats and showcase performers, PIT likes big pitchers, velo, exit velo, doesn’t mind older prospects, etc. b/c each model has it’s own quirks and the best way to find out is look at who they took over a couple years

Hoss: Who do you like better as a prospect Corbin Carroll or Alek Thomas?

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty close, not positive what order they’ll be in on the updated ARI list

Matthew: I’m surprised at how many pitchers the yankees drafted. Why do you think they did that when their best prospects are mostly pitchers

Kiley McDaniel: Their scouting/PD process I think is very good and I think the pitching process is even better relative to other teams than the hitting process. So leverage your strengths and take some arms

Kiley McDaniel: not to say they aren’t good at hitting stuff, obviously

Kiley McDaniel: and that’s often, any given year, more a function of your board than strategy

Connor: Know anything about Gavin Collyer? Rangers took him in the 12th round

Kiley McDaniel: Flashes some 55 stuff, more average consistently, scouts thought he’d probably go to school but never heard what the number was

You guys rock: Please take a long restful vacation after this. I can’t believe all this content is being put out by two people on a free sight. Thanks for answering my question. Yall are awesome!

Kiley McDaniel: I’m debating where to go, but am open to suggestions

Clarity: You said of Langeliers: “Chance for 5 bat, 5 power, 6 defense. usually catchers underperform the tools/upside offensively”.  Did you mean that he likely won’t reach those 5s for bat and power or those are conservative due to Cs underperforming?

Kiley McDaniel: the tools, or if he played 3B, would suggest a shot for 5/5 on the offense, but I think being a catcher means it will be less

mark: Why does AJ Preller like soft tossing lefty’s so much?

Kiley McDaniel: Lucchesi and Lauer and Margevicius seem to have worked out pretty well so far

Matthew: About the question about the Dodgers and Astros being “far ahead of *everyone* in *everything*,” wouldn’t the Yankees and Rays be up there too

Kiley McDaniel: yep they’re also on the list as generally good at almost everything

romorr: Stowers and Maverick, any swing change now that they are away from Stanford?

Kiley McDaniel: Stanford isn’t a problem place for swings anymore. Well, any one swing could be bad but they aren’t blanket teaching dumb stuff anymore

Nate: Do you have any thoughts on the Astros recently overhauled (and thoroughly numbers based) scouting department? Think it’s something that’ll still produce good results for them, or have they finally gone too far with pushing the Moneyball envelope?

Kiley McDaniel: I liked most of their picks and really liked what BAL did, so obviously going model/numbers heavy isn’t an inherent problem like you automatically get worse players

Kiley McDaniel: there’s some secondary issues that come with it, but getting good players is kinda the aim

Sean: When you say Arizona was going after “trackman friendly high slot” pitchers, can you give more detail on what that means?

Kiley McDaniel: Progressive clubs, and some progressive college programs like Arkansas/Vanderbilt preach high arm slots because that one fix can both get more rise on your fastball (which means more whiffs, all things being equal) and more break on your curveball by making the spin on both pitches more 12-6. It helps reduce less gyrospin (bullet spin)  on a CB and side spin (think lower slot, sinker type) on a FB

Kiley McDaniel: Verlander is a FB/CB guy and has talked publicly multiple times about how HOU helped him do this

Kiley McDaniel: this is also why they tend to prefer FB/CB guys because that slot doesn’t really change the effectiveness of a SL, may actually hurt it, but helps a CB

Kiley McDaniel: so good raw spin at a low slot FB/CB means there could be notable appreciation in value/effectiveness by just moving the slot. Chance for arbitrage with a good PD staff and some luck, if you will.

Charlie: James Beard, Tim Anderson, LouBob foot race. Who you got?

Kiley McDaniel: Beard could be the fastest man in pro baseball. It would need to be something like him and Billy Hamilton and Buxton to be close

Kiley DcManiel: can you give a refresher on post round 10 signing rules?

Kiley McDaniel: 125k or lower doesn’t count toward your pool, so 250k only counts for 125k against the pool.

Dunkin Donuts: What was a prospect you thought highly of and went on to be a success that other scouts did not think highly of?

Kiley McDaniel: Brian Anderson coming out of Arkansas is one that comes to mind

Kiley McDaniel: thought he should be comp/2nd and I think he went 3rd and scouts were like oh yeah that guy can’t hit and I had seem him 3-4 times that year and was convinced he could

ChatzMcGee: Why do people get so worked up about drafts when even the people paid to do them (on every team) are pretty terrible at them? It’s literally the biggest crapshoot in sports, it’d be like stressing out about your lottery ticket numbers all month.

Kiley McDaniel: another way to look at it

Tim: Have you seen Tyler Owens?

Kiley McDaniel: yep, little guy up to 96

Sam: NOICE!

Harangutan: AARON. HARANG.

Kiley McDaniel: well that’s all for this, I’m gonna edit this podcast then maybe take a week long nap