Kiley McDaniel Chat – 7/11/18

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here, live, and wants to chat with you!

Rick C: On a scale of 1-10, how big of a blunder was it for the Braves to fail to come to an agreement with Stewart?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe a 3 or 4? We had 5 players ranked ahead of Stewart that were on the board for that pick. He’s a prep righty that was trending down leading up to draft day, an especially risky class of player. The 2019 class is college bat heavy and would appear to have enough 50 FV types to give the Braves a chance to get a comparable talent at 9 that’s a hitter and closer to the big leagues than Stewart would be, thus eliminating the only real negative: putting off having an elite prospect by a year.

Kiley McDaniel: Also fans, generally speaking, freak out way too much when a player doesn’t sign.

Larry: A lot of Braves fans saying that not signing Stewart isn’t a huge deal because of the compensation pick. Is that true though? The GCL/DSL levels of that system are extremely bare right now.

Kiley McDaniel: But what if you pick a guy that never plays at those levels? Also, missing one prospect from rookie ball doesn’t matter. There aren’t championships for most loaded rookie ball team.

James: Seth Beer has hit the ground running in pro ball. Have his expectations changed from this small sample?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, question was how he’d do against velo/good stuff thrown in the zone and that isn’t the level to answer that question.

mark: Tatis is listed as 3B in the futures scouting – how long does he stay at ss?

Kiley McDaniel: Some guys have made that work that scouts didn’t think would be able to (Seager, Bogaerts, even a guy like Reid Brignac). Unless a guy is an error machine, I assume they can hang around there if they’re with an org that would put up with it. Not sure SD is that org, but TB or OAK probably would be.

CamdenWarehouse: Suppose Ohtani is going to pitch again this year. When he’s ready physically, can the Angels send him on a rehab assignment without burning an option?

Kiley McDaniel: The general feeling in the industry that I got during the Trade Value Rankings research (going up next week!) is that everyone assumes Ohtani will have to get TJ at some point in his 6 controllable years. May as well do it sooner than later. If you’re a conspiracy theorist, do it just before his first arb year and the weak platform year would presumably keep three years of arb prices lower.

Carter Stewart: Where do you think I go in the next draft if my stuff is still there and I’m healthy?

Kiley McDaniel: You’ll go in about the same spot, but the big question is what he’ll look like going forward.

Larry: Followed the Braves minors for a long time, and I don’t remember things being as empty at Danville/GCL level as they are right now. I realize the high minors look great and that’s what matters, but should I be nervous about the lower levels?

Kiley McDaniel: Team in the race with a strong core, Markakis finding the fountain of youth, a top 5 system aaaaaand….fans will find something to be negative about

Brendon Little: I’ve looked a little better lately after a rough start to year. What do you see me as at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: Always thought he was a reliever. Curve is a 65 or 70, so if he’s in the mid-90’s that a guy.

mark: Do any teams do psych testing for resilience or similar constructs?  Seems like it would be huge to be able to measure this throughout the grind of a season

Kiley McDaniel: Every team does and has for awhile. I’m a little dubious on how good they are at measuring stuff like that, but they try.

Warbiscuit: Can Will Holland and Davis Daniel potentially be 1st round picks in next year’s draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Holland is a fringe 1st round type right now, Daniel looks like a power reliever more 5th-6th or so. 2020s Burns, Julien and Williams may be the best prospects on Auburn.

Larry: Kyle Muller had a great start Monday, career high 12 Ks. What’s the upside here?

Kiley McDaniel: 3rd/4th starter

Nate: Thoughts on Zack Brown? Can he stay a starter? What’s his ETA?

Kiley McDaniel: Got good reports on him and he’s performing. Command is below so feels more like a relief option.

Jose: I’ve seen 94-96mph on Clarke Schmidt’s last outing (3IP)- has your outlook on him changed since his surgery?

Kiley McDaniel: Looks like the stuff came back, which is the big question after TJ, but it comes back like 70% of the time. Command comes back a little less often.

Cole Blaque: At the time of his drafting, it appeared that most evaluators saw that Garrett Whitlock was destined to be a bullpen arm.  Has his great first half changed his future role, specifically to a starting pitcher?  If so, are we looking back-end starter?

Kiley McDaniel: Arm action is funky and the stuff isn’t huge, so I’d bet middle relief. That said some funky guys end up throwing more strikes than you’d guess, so the possibility is on the table, even if it’s unlikely.

Georgie: When it comes to prospects, how do you handle a prospect that’s had a few down years and kind of fallen off the radar or never on the radar but then breaks out at a high level? For example, a guy like Kean Wong at Durham or Peter Marius at Montgomery. How do you decide if its a true breakthrough, like adding more power with improved strength, or just a fluke?

Kiley McDaniel: We look at if the swing or delivery or tool/pitch grades have changed, try to determine if it’s sustainable

Trackman Lover: How far are we from a world where minor league Trackman data is publicly available?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t really make sense for the teams. They pay over $100K/year to get the data and own/maintain the hardware, so they have no reason to make it public. If MLB owned all the units and thought it would be good for fans then maybe, but Statcast hasn’t exactly been an open source project.

Rod: Did the Braves offer over the 40% threshold to make sure they get the 9th pick next year?  Would be dumb of them not to, but haven’t seen confirmation just speculation

Kiley McDaniel: That rule only exists if the player submits to the pre-draft MRI program and Stewart obviously did not. No offer has to be made to get a comp pick in that situation.

David: Given their (small sample size) performances, how would you rank Deivi Garcia, Luis Medina and Roansy Contreras, and who do you like long term?

Kiley McDaniel: Medina is still way ahead, Garcia/Contreras are in the same area.

Nate: Are you or Eric planning on seeing any of the 2018 draft picks soon? I would love to get your thoughts on Joey Bart. He seems to be playing well in Salem-Keizer

Kiley McDaniel: We saw those guys a lot before the draft and they’re often fatigued and lesser versions of themselves in the summer after signing. We’ll see the ones that make sense, but we aren’t chasing the guys we’ve already seen a couple times this year specifically.

James: Any concerns with Drew Waters at the olayre

Kiley McDaniel: why is he going to the olayre and also what is that

Tim: Is Ke’Bryan Hayes a guy that could become a monster if he taps into the power?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep but that’s a big ask for a guy that’s always had that issue and hasn’t made big progress in that area yet.

Jsto: When the Orioles trade Machado, will the attendance ever get over 20,000 per game?

Kiley McDaniel: yeah but boog’s bbq

ChiSox2020: Seems that the state of the White Sox farm is not progressing as planned. Adolfo needs TJ, Burger, Kopech struggles. Fair to say the overall team’s farm is stuck in the mud a bit?

Kiley McDaniel: Robert, Hansen and Burdi all injured. Hasn’t been a banner year there.

Rob: Any idea why Greg Bird is struggling so badly with hard fastballs?  Not just the swing & miss rate, but watching him he’s late almost all the time (notwithstanding the 3-run dinger last night off a 96mph FB).

Kiley McDaniel: With big league, late-count power hitters like that, assuming they are healthy, it’s normally just a timing/mechanical tweak or focusing on a certain area. And they often look bad for a week or two due to these reasons and the swing and miss inherent in seeing lots of pitches from good pitching.

Alex: I know it’s still almost two years out, but have you gotten the impression that the the 2020 college class may be stacked with big time bats—Torkelson, Kjerstad, Steven Williams, Reese Albert, Patrick Bailey, Jesse Franklin, and I’m sure I’m missing some guys. What are your thoughts on Sunday me if these guys and do you share my assessment?

Kiley McDaniel: We have 2019-2021 draft rankings coming any minute now but the top 2 2020 prospects and 6 of the top 9 are college pitchers.

J: What do you think of Blake Rivera, Keaton Winn, and PJ Hilson? They were under the radar so I was surprised when the Giants went over slot for them

Kiley McDaniel: Rivera is a big arm that may be a reliever, Hilson is insane tools and not very polished. Both upside plays that are pretty interesting.

Mattabatcola: Micker Adolfo to officially get Tommy John. You guys put him in your updated top 100, what now?

Kiley McDaniel: WE PANIC AHHHHHHHH

Alex: Not sure if you’ve seen him, but Spencer Torkelson of ASU had a monster freshman season and is very young for his draft class. Will he be able to play either 3B or RF or will he be confined to 1B only?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him last week with college Team USA. 1B or LF, but played only 1B for this team.

Fidrych: Will Nick Neidert have enough of a fastball to play as a Kyle Hendricks-lite in the rotation?

Kiley McDaniel: Well Kyle Hendricks is the only type like that in the big leagues so I wouldn’t hang your hat on the guy you choose being the next one. But he has some similar qualities

Lou: “Smart” Dodgers fans don’t want Machado because of his suspect defense at SS and cost of prospects.  My dumba** wants him regardless.  Who’s right?

Kiley McDaniel: People that don’t turn everything into warring factions?

Rollie’s Mustache: I used to hear references to the “inverted W” a lot but not anymore. Was there ever any data to support a correlation to injuries or has that term been debunked?

Kiley McDaniel: Well the guy that’s been pushing that narrative most online has become a pariah that roots for pitchers to get hurt then tries to mine their misfortune for attention so that hasn’t helped the branding. It’s more commonly called high back elbow by scouts and it’s something that’s been discussed as a yellow or red flag for longer than that guy’s been around.

Elon Musk: Good news Kiley. I’ve a new electric bat. Runs on solar energy, can play up to three and a half innings on a single charge. Also has a cup holder and plays rick and Morty episodes. Should be out in 2045.

Kiley McDaniel: can it also be a flamethrower bc then i’m in

Greg: Draft strategy: A club should offer 4th-10th round college seniors all $125,000 to push them to rounds 10-15. The club gets good talent and doesn’t count against the bonus allot. Is the *only* drawback to this approach is that the club has to pay out an extra $100k per pick? Seems like a huge potential value play

Kiley McDaniel: So your strategy is to corner the market on players that have been passed over by the industry multiple times

RetireHurdle: Are the Pirates one of the worst teams in baseball at prospect development? I can’t help but think their one-size-fits-all, pitch to contact, two-seamer academy which has resulted in a bunch of 3-5 SP performances across their rotation isn’t helping and guys like Bell and Polanco (and Meadows since June began) have been very disappointing hitters.

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t go that far. Every team has quirks I don’t like about how the sign/develop players along with some things I do like. There’s a couple groups that deserve scorn for having a bad process and bad results, but largely fans overreact to this stuff with small sample sizes and not knowing the whole story.

JP: Hey Kiley! Thanks for the chat, I know it is very small sample, but has anyone got a better look at Grant Lavigne against better competition in the Pioneer League (vs. Bedford HS in NH)? Was just curious if we could be looking at an above average hit with plus power in Coors field.

Kiley McDaniel: Teams that liked him thought that what he was before the draft, so not far-fetched. The offensive bar is just really high for 1B.

We’re Going Streaming: Felix Jorge got released and resigned by the Twins based on a rule of removing him from the 40 man roster but he wasn’t ready to be activated. Have you ever heard of a player moving teams in this situation?  Also, thoughts on Jorge long term?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah it’s a way to get a player off the 40-man without exposing him to waivers, usually for a pre-arranged minor league deal at a big salary and for a player that would be claimed. I know of one instance where a team jumped in and offered more money to steal a player in this process. The GM that lost the player held that grudge for a long time. Ultimately, the player that was stolen was not worth it.

Jordan : Are you intrigued by Jarred Kelenic’s fiery hot start in the GCL. Hit his 3rd homer yesterday and he’s batting over 400 across his first 40 abs in the GCL and Appy (he was promoted to the appy yesteday)

Kiley McDaniel: Another cold weather prep hitter starting hot in pro ball, always good to see

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Rumor has it the Orioles rejected a Machado trade offer centering around Alex Verdugo. That has got to be astronomically stupid of the BAL front office, right?

Kiley McDaniel: If that’s there now, it’ll be there in a few days

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Have you seen Roansy Contreras yet this year? I’ve read/seen some encouraging things here and there.

Kiley McDaniel: Have not, but have talked to two scouts that have. Power fastball in the mid-90’s, inconsistent but flashing plus slider, chance to start but still pretty raw.

Wes: I’ve already moved on to the 2019 draft. Can you tell me about our local kid Rhp Quinn Priester? Chance he goes to Tcu?

Kiley McDaniel: In our top 50 for the 2019 class. Always guess no when they’re that good but it’s early.

Nate: It might be recency bias, but can you remember a team’s system struggle with injuries like the White Sox this year (Eloy, Robert, Dunning, Hansen, Burger, Adolfo)?

Kiley McDaniel: NYY had a year, I think 3 years ago where everyone got hurt or got worse. It happens sometimes.

John S: Seems like you’re bailing out the Braves on the basis that the team made the wrong pick in the first place.

Kiley McDaniel: They asked how big the mistake was. Given who the pick was, I don’t think it was that big of a mistake.

Dat Guy: Why do interested teams still send scouts to see a player like Machado? What will seeing one game tell you that hours of video and numbers can’t?

Kiley McDaniel: Some teams only have a couple scouts going to MLB games and generally agree with you. That said, those guys are often former big league coaches or are close with those types and get info that you literally can’t get any other way than by being there, watching BP closely, talking to coaches, having multiple years of history, etc. Often they can tell when a player is injured before something is clear, although StatCast can now measure some of that stuff (but not all of it)

Larry: Of course you don’t get championships for most loaded rookie ball team. But not even having a single exciting prospect on the Braves DSL, GCL or Danville teams isn’t the least bit concerning?

Kiley McDaniel: There are some pretty clear extenuating circumstances to explain that. It would be concerning if the team sucked at signing players; hard to fix that. It would also be worrisome if the whole system was bad and you had no trade chips.

Chris: According to MLB Rules, A Drafted Player cannot be traded until after the World Series. Can a Team Trade a drafted player as a Player to be later determined & get away with it that way?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, gotta wait til October

Diarrhea Smoothies: Thoughts on the new Rays stadium?

Kiley McDaniel: Looks cool to me that’s the first hurdle

Frank Menechino’s funny Hat: Who is Dominican SS Robert Puason & can you please elaborate on Oakland’s connection to him? Thank you for the chat!

Kiley McDaniel: He’s the best player in the 2019 July 2nd class, may possibly be the best guy in a couple years. Lanky shortstop that projects for above to plus everything, essentially. We’ve heard Oakland has a deal with him that is apparently for $5 million.

Jordan : How much has wander franco increased his value in his debut? I’ve seen him shift upwards of 50 spots in top 100 rankings since his debut a few weeks ago (rotowire, dynastyguru)

Kiley McDaniel: He’s really good. Tore up extended and hasn’t slowed down in the Appy league. Scouts I’ve talked to are excited.

Zihuatanejo: Between Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith, who should the Dodgers be most reluctant to trade?

Kiley McDaniel: We prefer Smith and we’ve heard the Dodgers do as well

Mario: Do you use an alias on other sports blogs

Kiley McDaniel: Usually just “Jordan Shusterman”

Sir nerdlington: We’re always warned not to make too much about a draft picks play over the first few months. Yet, draft picks can move dozens of picks based on their play in the few months leading up to the draft. Why is one different than the other?

Kiley McDaniel: First, fans usually freak out over numbers, which isn’t the thing to focus on, but I get it, that’s what you have. Secondly, a number of players will have bad summers due to fatigue or any number of other reasons and even scouts getting a first look may think they look bad (Drew Waters last summer for example) but it may not be predictive, gotta keep context in mind. So, some players, like say Wander Franco, appear to have legitimately improved and are playing well, but his numbers weren’t the thing that explains that, they just happen to be measuring the same thing that scouts are seeing. In the rare cases where that is happening, we can all get excited and have reason to be doing so.

Rollie’s Mustache: Do you think the Jays keep Pardinho at Bluefield for the year or does he see Vancouver at some point?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s 17, wouldn’t push it.

Johnny5: Pick one player right now for the rest of their career: Vlad Jr or Gleyber?

Kiley McDaniel: The trade value rankings answer this, but just for controllable years, which is almost the same. Vlad has a slight edge.

Doggo: Puper update please…

Kiley McDaniel: She’s napping in the other room, has entombed herself in pillows and blankets and surrounded herself with toys

Andrew: So I have heard from quite a few prospect guys that they believe the Futures game will become the Jo Adell show. Do you believe the same?

Kiley McDaniel: If he does that box jump thing, I would buy that opinion

5 Run Homer: Isn’t an inverted W just an M

Greg: Who decided to call it the inverted W instead of an M?

Kiley McDaniel: Not the first hole in logic to be found going down that rabbit hole

Manny: Were you surprised about Singer getting almost $1M overslot? What was his leverage other than typical junior leverage?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard right after the draft that it would be well overslot. But I agree, he had no leverage, so still a little surprised to see it.

Sandy Eggo: Is there anything to this “AJ Preller knows how to build a farm but not an MLB roster” narrative?

Kiley McDaniel: GMs that are good at one are almost never as good at the other…so there’s something to that idea, but AJ hasn’t taken his big swing yet, with lots of prospects up, making a contender and all that.

Bo: Acuna hasn’t exactly lived up to the (perhaps overinflated) hype… Any cause for concern yet?

Kiley McDaniel: A 20 year old is hitting 10% above average in the big leagues! I think your question is a cause for concern about you

Roger: What would it take to strengthen the pre-draft medical checks?  Would the draft have to move to a different part of the year because players are still playing?  Would that even be possible?

Kiley McDaniel: MLB’s MRI process is a mess, over half the pitchers that were eligible for it didn’t participate, for a number of reasons. Gotta have MRIs done on the kid’s terms so that every player has them done before the draft, then this gray area business about having an agreement then seeing the MRI and being able to do anything you want goes away. Currently, the players/advisors don’t have incentives to uniformly participate.

Bert: Worried at all about Jesus Sanchez’s walk rate? I love the power and even average, but scared that he can’t take a pitch. That could spell trouble at the big league level, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Still may be early enough to improve it, but yes this is the concern. Has plus bat control which can sometimes be a double-edged sword

Kris in Seattle: Why would an analytically inclined team like Houston get rid of two farm teams (DSL and Appy)?

Kiley McDaniel: I literally have no idea. All the data points to the opposite, particularly when your GM has job security

Mattabatcola: Add Madrigal to that list with a hammy right off the bat

Kiley McDaniel: almost like there’s a white sock that’s being used as a voodoo doll

A Boy Named YU: What’s wrong with Rizzo?

Kiley McDaniel: Indicators still good, so most think he rebounds

mlb draft: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=196461 Any reason a guy with these kind of college numbers doesnt get drafted at all? Not even to take a flyer

Kiley McDaniel: Not much power or speed numbers at a small school. But he’s playing pro ball so that’s good

A Boy Named YU: How bad does Wander Javier feel knowing he’s not the best SS prospect named Wander anymore?

Kiley McDaniel: Makes me wonder what happens to the guy that submits a Wander Javier questions every single chat

Jordan Shusterman: What

Kiley McDaniel: Looks like we’re in range

Ric Flair: Wooooooo!!!!

Neil DeGrasse Tyson: I’m curious Kiley, do you feel it would be more beneficial to focus our efforts and resources to a Mars mission or bolster our near earth exploration with missions to build a moon base?

Dave: An ambidextrous middle-infielder should wear 2 gloves, right? Ultimate range. Just have to make sure you can shake off the other glove to make a throw

Tiger Woods: PHIL MICKELSON

Matt Stairs: MATT. STAIRS.

MATT BOYD: MATT. BOYD.

Jordan Shusterman: JORDAN.SHUSTERMAN.

Kiley McDaniel: And that’ll do it, thanks for coming out