Kiley McDaniel Chat – 7/18/18

Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote about how African American players stood out at the Futures Game and also in the 2019 draft class and what that could mean: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-futures-game-was-black/

Kiley McDaniel: And I’m currently going through the annual trade value rankings, with 21 thru 30 likely getting posted during this chat: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-31-to-40/

Tony Womack: Sanchez’s WAR projections seemed low. Would his ranking differ if he was projected 3-4 WAR?

Kiley McDaniel: Struck me as a little low as well. The WAR figures for catchers impact the rankings the least, since they don’t include framing and the non-WAR abilities that catchers bring to the table (handling a staff, mental game, etc.) are the most notable of any other position.

Sats: Is Victor Victor Mesa a potential top 25 prospect, and what kind of grades would you put on his tools

Kiley McDaniel: Not in his current form, but he’s currently doing the typical Cuban thing of disappearing for a month or two, getting in insane shape and probably will show slightly better tools in his open workout, which will probably be in about a month. We’ve heard mixed things on his hit tool against top competition and there isn’t a ton of game power, with more than a few scouts saying he’s Albert Almora, or a dynamic player that’s defense over offense with potential for more.

Sandy Eggo: Can players have different skill evaluations at different positions? Tatis Jr. unleashed a monster throw from 3B in the futures game. Does his 60 arm at SS play more as a 65 or 70 there?

Kiley McDaniel: That does vary position to position for some guys and it’s the same for others. Obviously the process of throwing from the OF or different spots in the IF involves slightly different mechanics, so some agree better with a certain player.

Adam: It seems like Keone Kela is not highly valued in the national trade market conversations, but shouldn’t he be valued at a similar level as Ken Giles before his trade? Kela even has more success in the closer role. Could the Giles deal be in reach for Kela?

Kiley McDaniel: For late inning relievers, the mental makeup is key. Some teams whispered when Giles was traded that they didn’t think he had the mental strength to handle the big moment and that’s been at least somewhat true. Kela has some concerns going all the way back to his amateur days that I know at least some teams are skeptical of him in that sort of role.

HappyFunBall: This years trade value series already has a couple of guys listed who’ve yet to see appreciable time in the majors, and will likely have at least two more (Soto, Acuna) who are <200 career PAs.  Is this a difference in methodology (you vs. Cameron), a difference in how the industry is valuing prospects, or just that this year’s young kids are better than most other years?

Kiley McDaniel: Dave and I both leaned towards what teams told us, so don’t think since I do more work on prospect stuff than I’m overvaluing the young players. Obviously, given what happened this offseason, the industry is shifting more than usual towards young players and with Trackman/StatCast we can better pinpoint if a hot start to a career seems sustainable or lines up with minor league trackman data, etc. There’s more/better advance scouting for the young players as well. So I think the youngsters are generally a little better bets than in the past and the clubs are certainly valuing them more highly, independent of that.

Schiraldi: This time of year, we get so many reports about scouts from particular teams watching particular players. How is this so obvious? Is there a designated section scouts have to sit in? (Or are there only a few sections that have the right sightlines?) Are scouts required to wear team shirts or caps to sit there? Do beat reporters simply know by face hundreds of scouts from other teams? How do reporters know that a particular scout is not doing normal coverage — do they know who does normal coverage, and know whose appearance would be unusual?

Kiley McDaniel: They generally all sit in a pretty tight section in big league parks, since most don’t have huge swaths of empty seats to allow them to sit anywhere. So, yeah, they do all generally sit in the same section every game. In the lower minors with more open seats they spread out more, so it’s a little harder. They generally don’t wear team logos but usually have team logos on something they are carrying. And in the majors, they usually eat in press dining and sign in somewhere either for dinner or tickets, so anyone with the home team knows exactly who is where and most journalists can figure it out. Some scouts are friendly with the beat writers to get info on players that isn’t written, too.

Schiraldi: In the Walker Buehler trade value write-up you wrote: “Walker is one of the rare prospects who gets the coveted “has a chance to become be an ace” label that’s only true of a handful of pitchers on Earth at a given time.” Among minor leagues, who gets that label from scouts now? Is it no one at all, or just Whitley? Seems like Honeywell, Keller, Sanchez, Mize et al are a bit short of that

Kiley McDaniel: Whitley, Sixto, Kopech, Gore is probably the list right now. Someone could swap in/out a player or two to that group.

Bravesy McBravesface: Do you think there is a deal the Braves could make for deGrom that both sides could actually agree to?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think Mets ownership would trade him in division unless it’s an insane overpay.

CB: Follow-up to the amateur level question: where could/should a first-round HS talent be assigned to MiLB ball and be expected to struggle or succeed?  Does it matter what their background is?  Full disclosure: I’m a Cards fan and want to know how much stock to put in Gorman’s numbers in Rookie ball.

Kiley McDaniel: The more advanced, top 15-20 overall pick hitters generally do a week or two at the complex league, then finish in the level above that, generally hit about 100 wRC+ or better. If you’re besting that by a good margin, then it’s good. If you aren’t, it’s possibly bad but also probably not a big deal.

Rob: Are you warming up on Buddy Reed and think he has a MLB future?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m starting to get the feeling that there’s some Lewis Brinson here. By that I mean an amateur tool shed with a bad swing and/or iffy approach where the athleticism is so good that the right teachers can essentially teach him how to hit. Wouldn’t ever project that sort of thing to happen, but would certainly (if I were a team) gamble on that sort of guy in the right spot.

MH: Hey Kiley, can you compare/contrast the tools of Adell and Jordyn Adams? Does Adams have a chance to follow a similar path based on his ++ athleticism? Ultimately who do you think has a higher ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: Adell is more of a corner guy with 70 power and enough hit tool to get to it. Adams is an 80 runner, CF for sure that might be a plus hitter with above average power but he’s played so little we don’t really know what he’ll be. Not the same type, but similarly huge ability.

Zock Jr.: Great article today from Eric. Very encouraging news for the future of the sport!

Kiley McDaniel: Agree! Of our unpublished, longer 2019 draft rankings, 10 of the top 32 are African American, so this is at least a really good run if not the beginning of a larger trend.

Bravesy McBravesface: Do you think the Braves will switch their draft strategy next year since they’re guaranteed the 9th overall pick to take a college player, or do you think they’ll double down on the prep players?

Kiley McDaniel: I can guarantee you they have no idea, but the class is college hitter heavy, so I’d bet it ends up there just playing the odds.

BB: Thoughts on Kristian Robinson

Kiley McDaniel: Crazy athlete with big upside and some present feel that’s got a lot of scouts excited and he’s performing. Wander Franco is the best prospect in short season right now and I don’t have all the other candidates in front of me, but he’s up there.

Depressed Orioles Fan: Who can we get excited about for the 2019 draft?

Kiley McDaniel: If you want to know about elite draft eligible prospects, we’ve got you covered until 2021: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2019mlb&type=0&pos=all…

Scott: MLB trade value seems very volatile. Guys like Archer, Conforto, and Ender Inciarte can drop fairly dramatically without any big injury or contact change. You note Archer dropped because he got a year closer to free agency, but he’s still on a team friendly long term deal.

Do you think teams aren’t valuing consistency enough when they rank players? Presumably Archer wasn’t actually the 17th most valuable player last year if he’s suddenly not in the top 50. Or is the answer just that baseball is volatile and there are lots of new cheap players every year so the TR will over course be volatile?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been skeptical of Archer for a couple years now since at one point (I believe it’s still true), he threw more sliders than any pitcher in recorded history over a multi-year sample. That doesn’t mean his arm will explode but it’s generally not a good sign, independent of anything else.

Kiley McDaniel: So, like how I’ve outlined that certain extreme players like Scherzer or Tatis are valued differently by different clubs based on payroll/record, there are also players where the type of player they are or recent injury past will cause clubs, independent of payroll/record, to disagree pretty strongly on value.

Kiley McDaniel: And if one of the injury concern guys gets hurt, the value drops a lot. If a guy that you think won’t age well starting declining a little early, you hit him harder. Conversely if a hyped prospect has a hot 6 weeks, you bump him more than you bump Aguilar or Muncy, etc.

Kev: Hiya Kiley. Who’s fault is it that Hader still had those tweets in his timeline? I blame the PR guy for the Brewers. There’s got to be an intern going through each acquired player’s social media presence on every team, flagging harmful and immature content…

Kiley McDaniel: You’d think with the various versions of this that teams and agents would get on top of it. I blame the agent more because this may now affect Hader’s earning potential, and thus the agents, for multiple years. The club has hundreds of players they own the rights to, so given current staffing, it’s a little unrealistic to think they’re gonna go back 10 years on all of them, even if they should. Also, the player should also be aware with how these things blow up to deal with this on their own, too.

Marvin: How does a young hitter like Contreras outperform his xWOBA every year?

Kiley McDaniel: Typically that’s done with bunts and speed, possibly elite bat control to place soft liners over the IF, since these sorts of models have a lot of trouble with those things. Don’t have a specific answer for Contreras.

Nick: Is the gap between Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith closing?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d say they’re around the same

O’Kiley : Any thoughts on Mountcastle’s BP in Washington ?

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty similar to the amateur ones I’d seen from him

James: Seth Beer should finish the year in high A and potentially push for a big league spot next summer. Even though questions persist, is this how advanced of a bat he was considered coming in?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe pump the brakes after 29 pro games

Daniel McKiley: The Futures Game and ASG were remarkably similar. Impressive pitching with even more impressive homers.

Kiley McDaniel: Shocking how we haven’t heard the old baseball writers complaining the game is garbage this week. So tired of that nonsense.  May write about this later, but pitchers throwing 100, breaking off GIFable breaking pitches while hitters celebrate hitting massive homers that are increased in frequency by coaching/analytics along with fewer weak ground balls and stale, boring non-action in a game populated by enthuastic, charismatic young players….I mean Meg and Carson would hate that run on sentence but do you think encouraging that stuff will drive interest or shaving 4 minutes off the game and outlawing shifts? It’s insane the things that the leadership of this sport thinks drive interest.

Tacos: Is Diaz a good get for Baltimore?

Kiley McDaniel: Seems like about what they should’ve hoped for: a near-ready, fringe top 100 hitter with a solid 2nd piece (45 FV I’d guess) and a lottery ticket 3rd piece (40 FV with upside). There has been higher prices paid for rentals, but not amazingly higher.

todd: is one element of the trackman/statcast revolution that some teams are taking advantage of other teams inability to translate the data into PD ? are we already starting to see it with Hou/Pit and pitching

Kiley McDaniel: There were definitely clubs that I was more eager to suggest we trade with, when we knew they were behind us in various aspects of analytics or development or struggle with a certain kind of player, etc.

Josh Nelson: Who are the top 3 players I should watch at the Baseball Factory/Under Armour HS Showcase at Wrigley Field this Friday?

Kiley McDaniel: CJ Abrams, Bobby Witt Jr, Riley Greene and Rece Hinds are the best players there, in some order. Brennan Malone, Matthew Allan and Jerrion Ealy are probably next best.

Daniel McKiley: If you had full control over the Futures Game (selection process included) what would you do?

Kiley McDaniel: Just invite the best players instead of capping it at 2 per team. I’d consider AL/NL instead of US/World. I’d probably be fine with 1 player per team just so more people watch. I’d definitely have a skills competition

DJ Tanner: Does Yusniel Diaz’s ETA move up with a trade to the O’s? Does he overtake Mountcastle as their top prospect? Also with his 2 HR performance, do you see his projections going up?

Kiley McDaniel: We have the O’s list currently as a pretty clear top 3 of Hays, Mountcastle and Hall, and you could probably put those in any order. Diaz jumps into that group and probably in the top 3, but we haven’t lined them up yet.

Billy Beane: Snell seems…kind of low?Do teams not buy him as a frontline guy?

Kiley McDaniel: I think some do, but…pitchers man

Bun B: Kiley, it has come to my attention that there is no player page for the Dodgers Will Smith! Can you please help me to notify whoever it is at Fangraphs that can remedy this situation?

Kiley McDaniel: I just google will smith dodgers fangraphs and it takes me there. something weird in the search bar with the super common name

Wild Man Wilson: Was Paul Dejong left off of the Trade Value list due to his defense or due to his injury? If neither what is he missing because he seems to be undervalued/under-discussed to me.

Kiley McDaniel: Not huge tools, athleticism or upside, some think he’s already peaked and is a 2.5 WAR guy going forward. That’s really valuable with lots of control but you need a little more upside to crack the top 50. Also, the K’s are a little high and the BB rate was really low until 49 games this year, so would like to see a little more before we know what the true talent level is, especially for a non-pedigree guy that very few thought could do this. It’s not so much that he hasn’t done enough, but about how execs project him going forward.

Anthony: Any chance Taylor Trammell sneaks into the 55 tier?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably the prospect that increased his stock the most in DC. Power was more than anyone had seen before, so some tool grades changed.

Danny: You and Eric are obviously high on Andujar and I assume you expect his plate discpline and defense to improve (even if neither would be considered “plus”). Would you sign Machado in the offseason to play 3B and trade Andujar (hopefully) for pitching or just concentrate the $$ elsewhere?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know if I would, but could definitely be talked into that. Maybe something like Andujar for Carlos Martinez and sign Machado?

Justin: Kiley, I’m seeing consistent reports that Brailyn Marquez is hitting 97-99 every time out, and sitting 94-96. Time to get excited about him?

Kiley McDaniel: Have heard up to 96 but not that kind of velo. Believe Eric will see him soon.

Josh: How much does an impressive Futures Game performance raise a player’s stock? Will someone slightly off the national radar (like Trammel) get a bump in Top 100 lists?

Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t matter like any one game doesn’t matter. But, if the tool grades change, then guys will move up. There were a few of those but Trammell the most notable.

Daniel McKiley: Do some teams have an advantage in international scouting? Is it because of monetary investment? or just strategic choice?

Kiley McDaniel: Certain teams do the smart thing and treat int’l scouting with the same level of process and resources as domestic scouting. It’s like 3-5 teams right now and they’re generally beating everyone else down there. If I’m a GM I’m really embarrassed if I’m not one of those teams b/c there isn’t an excuse–it’s basically free money if you just try.

PM: Are teams allowed to place heart rate sensors or other things like that on players within game to track how this fluctuates based on situation

Kiley McDaniel: I believe the players have to agree but I know some do, like Russell Martin has at least in the past.

Bob: This is random, but to piggy back on your response on Kela/Giles…do you know how teams would quantify someone having the right mental makeup to handle a late inning relief role? Seems like your sources were right on Giles, was just wondering if there’s any obvious tells that people look for

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve heard stories about Giles, Kela, Daniel Bard and Craig Hansen, among others, where sources specifically, before they were notable prospects, told me this is why I don’t think this guy can hack it in the big moment, or doesn’t have the work ethic, or something similarly important to projecting a player. It’s obviously very subjective but often ends up being at least partially true.

Bored Employee: Have you seen Wander Franco play? Did unicorns descend from the skies on rainbows?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, he was clearly the best player on the field that day and didn’t even look like he was interested in being there.

Devon: I read a lot about Hunter Greene’s fastball being straight. Does that concern you? I know everything is dependent on developing secondaries but does the lack of movement limit his upside? Thanks, Kiley!

Kiley McDaniel: It’s worrisome but you can sometimes improve that with a different grip/approach, with Touki Toussaint one recent example. So I wouldn’t kill the kid over it right now, just know that, like breaking ball consistency are keys for him going forward.

Nick: Do teams usually go through a player’s social media accounts before drafting them?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes and I know one player this year that had Hader-adjacent tweets that were about 8 years old that a team noticed in like February and got him to take them down. I’m sure there’s been others.

Kiley McDaniel: I also found out about some private workouts because they were posted about in social media by the player or parents

Sean: Do you see Nick Senzel, Eloy Jiminez, or Austin Riley as worth holding in a keep forever league?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d think yes to all three

Daniel McKiley: I know Eric likes Madrigal, do you feel as confident?

Kiley McDaniel: Just as confident

Carson Cistulli: I knew you believed in Josh  James, but a top 30 trade asset was beyond my expectation.

Kiley McDaniel: You know I’m about that #JAMESLYFE

Charles Finley: Doesn’t Kopech suck?  The stuff is good but geez

Kiley McDaniel: POTENTIAL to be an ace. The ingredients are obviously there. If he turns into an ace, everyone will be like oh yeah we knew that COULD’VE happened.

PD: Not to be a Hader, but is getting into “insane” shape involve unapproved assistance?

Kiley McDaniel: Those rumors usually accompany any insane-level body changes. To be fair, the workout resources and nutrition in Cuba aren’t the best, so there is a reasonable expectation of improvement. Getting previously unavailable top-end everything for a month or two straight…I mean I’d be in better shape if that was my job for 60 days, too.

mark: Do you think it’s better for a player to be “challenged” and struggle at a level he’s young for, or establish himself with solid production at a level where he’s at a league average age?  I’m thinking about the Padres J@ guys hitting 200 at Ft. Wayne for contect.

Kiley McDaniel: Depends on the player. Some players are so talented and aren’t being challenged and need to fail to be humbled and be forced to sharpen their skills. Others are more treading water with skills since their tools are ordinary and they should probably move slower.

Jo Adell: Aren’t there a handful of aces, other than Cliff Lee, that didn’t have that “potential ace” label coming up (deGrom, Kluber, etc)

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, I could’ve made that point clearer. I meant more aces without ace-level stuff. Kluber and deGrom have ace stuff that just developed later. Those two were projected as aces once the stuff was what it is now.

Garrett: Not a prospect question but- Where does Josh Hader go from here? Nobody will ever look at him the same? This is going to follow him forever.

Kiley McDaniel: A teammate (I believe it was Cain) already came out and said this doesn’t represent the person he has interacted with, so I think he’ll be fine long-term

BoJackDonkeyMan: Is Acunbies the greatest bromance in sports?

Kiley McDaniel: It is v cute

The Beije: Should we be worried about Sixto’s “elbow inflammation? The guy hasn’t pitched since June 3rd.

Kiley McDaniel: He had some minor arm stuff early in the year that was mostly him trying to come out of chute a little too hard. I would imagine he’ll be fine.

Conor: Not looking for ~spoilers~ but does the fact that it looks like vlad is in your top 20 hints that there’s a wide gap in value between him and tatis/other elite prospects in the eyes of the industry?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. Hit tool certainty is huge for these types of guys with no MLB track record

RS: Also, players should try not to be racists or homophobic. That would be easier.

Kiley McDaniel: The best suggestion!

Sam: Contreras ranked higher than Sanchez certainly seems like a case of recency bias, as Gary is younger, much better with the bat (Sanchez career .385 xwWOBA; Contreras .336), and has done this in the much tougher league.

Kiley McDaniel: Unfortunately that’s how teams often do stuff, too. Had a friend with a club check with me on some potential trade targets and we agreed one prospect was better than the other, but since the better one was on the DL he said “yeah but he can’t be a headliner in a big deal”

Guest: Touki not on your list of future aces? Obviously he has to continue his improvements from this year and last, but the stuff seems to be there. Am I wrong?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, I mean the stuff is there, but he’s never been better than a 50 command guy at any point in his career, so probably not on that list. Kopech has even bigger stuff with the same issue and you could argue he’s pretty fringy for that list.

John Kasich: Vote Kasich 2020

Kiley McDaniel: Ron Paul 2012, bro

Kiley McDaniel: KILEY. MCDANIEL.

Kiley McDaniel: An upset for the chat kicker! See you guys next week