Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/14/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is outside chasing chipmunks and I’m inside chatting with you people

Kiley McDaniel: Eric just finished up Area Codes and the PG All American game so our summer looks are done and the draft rankings will get tons of names added/moved in the next couple days

Kiley McDaniel: The tops of the lists are done, just adding some names to the bottoms to fill them out some

Kiley McDaniel: We’re working on a big project that we’ll announce soon and the main other things that’s going on now is doing sweeps through systems and moving the obvious prospects around based on new reports, so that will continue to happen this summer

Kiley McDaniel: Aristedes Aquino was added today, Thad Ward to the Red Sox, Breidy Encarnacion for Miami, a little shuffling to the CIN list, a couple ARI moves, some new video, etc.

Jerry: Does Will Smith’s early production in the big leagues help vault him at all on THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s only 80 PA but it’s a good indication. We’ve been the high ones on him for the last two offseasons since we believed in the athleticism and power

randomdude: SWR appears to be doing more than just holding his own as the youngest arm in A+…What do you need to see from him before he starts getting into the 50FV range?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s been very good, he’ll be in consideration for that. There’s a number of 2018 prep draftees at the 45+ waystation to possibly be 50s between now and the offseason

Kiley McDaniel: Brennen Davis, Ryan Weathers, Jordyn Adams, Bo Naylor, SWR. In the Futures Game update we moved up Brice Turang, Jordan Groshans, Xavier Edwards, Triston Casas

Xolo: Do you take the Padres’ aggressive promoting habits into consideration when figuring out FV or is Patiño making it to AA at 19 as impressive as it would be in any other organization?

Kiley McDaniel: Making it to a level doesn’t really mean much if you don’t perform, so the SDP approach doesn’t do much for value, unless it’s what looks to be an early promotion and they perform really well

Lars: Ronny Mauricio is the top-ranked player on the Board whose ETA postdates Wander Franco, so in some vague way you’re predicting he’ll follow Franco as the #1 prospect in baseball. Do you think he’s actually the top candidate, or would you bet on someone else?

Kiley McDaniel: Hmmm hadn’t thought of it that way but you appear to be correct. Bobby Witt and Marco Luciano are right there, George Valera is a threat, Jasson Dominguez lingers, Julio Rodriguez, Riley Greene, C.J. Abrams. Brett Baty is a sneaky possibility. There isn’t a super obvious 2020 draft prospect to be the top one from that class, but the 2021 class has a few, with Brady House the headliner.

Kiley McDaniel: Luis Patino is also there, but I would always bet against pitchers

Kiley McDaniel: And elite college players for 2019 or 2020 that could be #1 types may get promoted too fast

Kiley McDaniel: Kumar Rocker in 2021 could be a fit, though

Gerge: Bryan Reynolds is NOT what we thought he was. If he were magically still eligible, where do you think he’d rank on the Board? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a now pretty proven solid average defensive LF with what looks like solid average offense when you strip out the luck and try to figure out the true talent level from this hot streak. Seems like he’s in the 2.0 to 3.5 WAR area, so he’d be a 55 FV until we see a little bit more

Steve: Dustin May averaging about 8 K/9 through his first 3 starts. Moving forward would you expect higher, lower, or about even with that 8 K/9 mark?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d guess between 9 and 10 during his peak years

Uncle Spike: Hey Kiley, is their any publicly available tool or statistic you use to evaluate pitching prospects across all minor league levels.  For hitters we have wRC+ but I’m not aware of anything for pitchers.

Kiley McDaniel: well wRC+ is limited too since it isn’t park adjusted in the minors, doesn’t strip out BABIP luck, doesn’t include speed/defense. But yes it is a very good tool for like 90% of offensive prospect hitting measurement.

Kiley McDaniel: For pitchers I just look at the peripherals and xFIP is the single number that’s most useful and encapsulates all those things. It’s still not perfect at rating extreme FB/popup guys since we don’t have perfect batted ball definitions and it’s more likely in the lower minors to see guys with a 4 xFIP and 6 ERA for multiple years because they can get strikeouts but mix in too many meatballs, so they seem unlikely but they just aren’t that good yet. And usage/pitch target location can be tweaked and spike xFIP in a way that isn’t linear without physical tools changing, but that’s the same as wRC+ and swing/approach changes

Kiley McDaniel: (I think that was too detailed?)

Mickey Callaway: Would your rather have Luis Santana or JD Davis?

Kiley McDaniel: we leaned Santana at the time of the trade but Davis has had a nice year, so now I’m leaning that way

PatEdMartin: 2020 prospect Milan Tolentino was the first pick in the 2019 LMB draft a few weeks ago.  Does that impact his amateur status in the US at all?  Is it common for the LMB to draft US high schoolers?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll admit I don’t know what the LMB draft is and a quick google didn’t help much

Kiley McDaniel: Oh wait that must be the Mexican League

Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t heard of that happening before and I can’t imagine he’s going to play there when he could sign or go to UCLA, so I don’t think it matters?

Sully: Does Alek Manoah have the potential to be a #1 starter? His numbers in Vancouver have been ridiculous.

Kiley McDaniel: Pure stuff, possibly. We project more #3 with a chance to progress in the feel aspects and get to #2, though we’re sticklers for that sort of thing since we think there’s no more than 10 aces in the bigs at any given time and most of them hold the title for awhile

Kiley McDaniel: Like there may only be 5-6 pitchers in the minors now where we’d say there’s a real shot they’re on of those 10 MLB aces at some point

Kiley McDaniel: Obviously more of them have a greater than 0% chance since Cliff Lee was on waivers like 4 years before he became an ace

Kiley McDaniel: So maybe our definition is guys with a 10% or greater chance? maybe more than that?

Nope: Could you slap some tool grades on Trey Harris? I get that he’s not a future star, but it’s hard to get any sense of his athleticism, defensive value, hit/power projections etc.

Kiley McDaniel: squatty framed LF without a plus tool but he’s hitting and has potential 20 HR power

Kiley McDaniel: That’s basically the same as Dustin Peterson who was hitting until he wasn’t, to give you an idea of the margin for error

Jared: If you’re the Braves, do you exercise Teheran’s $12 MM option after this season? It seems like he pitches with lots of traffic, but he does go every 5th day.

Kiley McDaniel: They could, but you could also decline, wait the whole offseason and maybe scoop him up for like 1 year $6M, so I don’t think they will

Fire Extinguisher: What did I do to deserve that?!

Kiley McDaniel: you know what you did

RyanW: Any plans to add either Jack Herman or Mason Martin to THE BOARD? Need something to put to distract me from all the post-ASB losing the Pirates have been doing, man

Kiley McDaniel: Both on the list to consider, both striking out a good bit but performing as corner guys young for the level which is probably enough to go from 35 to list quality

benji: Hey Kiley, I’ve often seen you guys lower a prospect’s ranking because he’s R/R 1B, and I understand that’s because the offensive bar is so much higher at 1B. The 1B part makes sense, but I don’t understand why R/R is a further negative. It would seem that lefties experience much greater platoon splits and are more likely to be platooned so they would be lower, i.e. Logan Morrison, Nate Lowe, and many many others. Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: Well a platoon LHH 1B gets to play most of the time and the platoon RHH 1B might get cut for a utility player that’s RHH and can play every position

Kiley McDaniel: same with “backup 2B that can hit a little” losing out to the “can’t really hit but can really play SS and run”

Kiley McDaniel: and both lose out these days to the “can really hit and can weekend at bernie’s in LF”

HxHxH: Kolby Allard has been sitting at 91-94 in his two starts in the Rangers system since coming over from Atlanta.  Reports at the time of the deal had him at 89-91.  If this velocity bump is legit, how does it impact his FV?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll have to see if the command is still there at 92-94 but it’s interesting

Kiley McDaniel: he hit 96 in one inning at the PG All American game when he was 16 and now 6 years later it’s magically coming back

BlueJayMatt: Buy or sell: Anthony Kay as a mid-rotation starter eventually.

Kiley McDaniel: I tend to sell when it’s a sub-50 FV type with a TJ and that could easily fit in a lefty relief role given his profile

Joey: Hi Kiley.

Kiley McDaniel: Sup

bowser: how does bowser’s perfect game showing change his status?

Kiley McDaniel: I wasn’t there, so you can ask Eric but I get the impression it’s still a RHH 3B/1B with power but contact is just ok, so it’s more 35+

Mr. Marple: Is there a particular age at which you start weighting stats more heavily than tools? (Or: how does it depend on position, pedigree, etc.?)

Kiley McDaniel: AA and AAA is where it becomes more important both because they’ve been at a pro level for a few years and are at least 21 and the pitching resembles MLB pitching

Kiley McDaniel: before AA and/or age 21 the performance can be weighed a good bit less

Jeff: Do you ever account for an organizations player development capacity when assigning FVs?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope. If something persistent like the Dodgers changing a swing and unlocking power happens anew, we’re more likely to move the guy up quickly than if it’s a team where this never happens, but that’s really just like getting ahead of a couple weeks of lag on an in-season ranking.

Kiley McDaniel: The guy can’t be traded, have nothing change, then go up/down because now magicians are going to tell him the secrets of whatever. There’s plenty of instances where a tailor made development project doesn’t work

Jason: How important is breaking ball RPM? Been finally checking statcast data on baseball savant and it seems like a lot of pitchers who are considered to have good or great breaking balls rate in low or medium percentile for curve spin and or break. I know the lower RPM equals more “sink” on like fastballs and change ups, so just curious if similar applies to breaking balls or if it’s more on how late the break is than how much.

Kiley McDaniel: Well there’s other factors at play here

Kiley McDaniel: pure spin matters more for CB than SL

Kiley McDaniel: since a CB is more 12-to-6 shaped and so more of the spin, generally speaking, will be on the axis to make the ball break

Kiley McDaniel: but we also know that some curveballs aren’t spin efficient so the extra spin doesn’t mean much when ay only 30% of it is efficient and leads to break

Kiley McDaniel: so like a 100% efficient 12-to-6 breaker with 2000 rpm and a 65% efficient slurve with 2500 rpm would appear just from rpm to better, but knowing only those numbers, the 2000 rpm pitch will break more

Kiley McDaniel: and with sliders you’re basically going for a 0% efficient gyrospin/bullet spin/spiral to the ball, so spin is generally good in that a higher spin, same efficiency pitch will have more bite, but you have the same issue where quality of spin can make a big difference

Kiley McDaniel: and since there’s less movement, sliders tend to be better when there’s similar spin to the fastball and other sorts of deception whereas curveballs tend to be better with individual characteristics like velocity and break and spin

Shameless Cardinals Homer: I’m in the fitness industry, and it amazes me that MiLB-aged players can be out of shape.  Being a 16-25yo male is literally the equivalent of being on steroids, so all you have to do is LOOK at weights and you’ll grow muscle (barely an exaggeration), assuming you eat enough.  And you can even get away with eating way too much (to a point) until your mid-20s.  I know diet control is on teams’ radars, but what about weight training?  Wouldn’t it be in their best interests to keep kids around all offseason near the weight room to help them make the most of their natural growth years?

Kiley McDaniel: Well in-season they’re at the field playing everyday so fatigue becomes an issue but you’d also be surprised how many elite baseball players don’t do a ton of weight training and create lazy habits then have to adjust when they finally fail because their eye-hand needs some improved raw strength

Kiley McDaniel: there’s obviously way less of the “fat, non-athlete that falls out of bed and hits” now than there used to be, but a vein of that still exists since baseball is less tied to pure athleticism than other sports

Rusty: Any word on how Noah Song has looked in Lowell? The numbers looks good, but obviously they can be misleading.

Kiley McDaniel: Up to 98, fastball heavy but Eric has seen the slider and it’s at least above average

Kiley McDaniel: and haven’t heard anything new about avoiding military service

Fossil: How often do you bump into rookie scouts who are starstruck the first time they recognize you?

Kiley McDaniel: lol wouldn’t say starstruck but i am pleasantly surprised how many come up and say hello

Rox Fan: Odds that Jeff Bridich gets canned following this season’s debacle and the state of the farm system?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean it’s not going well but that may be the ownership group that’s least biased to making change, so I’d never bet on that

Jim: I’m intrigued by Cody Morris, former SEC arm and now Indians SP prospect. Considering their recent track record of developing college RHP is Morris next? Any information about him would be appreciated, thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: Also on the list to take a look at. Don’t have anything on this year but he has a TJ, has always thrown hard (92-95) with life and a breaking ball that’s average to above, but health/command has been the issue. Seems like that’s improved.

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Kiley, should the New Jersey Devils trade Taylor Hall and go with a full youth movement.  Probably buys them cap space down the road which will be useful.

Kiley McDaniel: my interests aren’t that diverse

Kiley McDaniel: although i will say that watermelon/strawberry/mint frose and roasted mojo coconut flakes have been nice additions to the homemade rotation

The X Factor: Has Sherten Apostel done enough this year where the Rangers will need him to add him to the 40 man roster this offseason (and protect him from the R5 draft)?

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t remember a corner High-A prospect being taken in the Rule 5 before (I’ll spare you my tired story of stumping for Miguel Andujar as a Rule 5 guy after a season in High-A) but TEX may be in a spot to just protect him anyway rather than carry a fringy depth type on the back of the 40-man

Kiley McDaniel: a team like NYY or TBR would probably just leave him off and assume they’ll get him back if he gets taken, since taking A-Ball prospects to stash and keep has basically never worked before

Christian: What are your thoughts in the state of the Tigers’ rebuild?

Kiley McDaniel: Another one that’s not going super well but they’re moving in the right direction. Not much bad money left in the big leagues. Mize, Manning, Greene and some cheap 45s and 50s are on the way. The asset management hasn’t been the best, there isn’t much in the way of assets at the big league level right now and we worry Mize may not be the 6.5 years of 200 IP type that some may be expecting

Kiley McDaniel: So like it isn’t perfect (not much in life is) but they’re broadly doing the big picture stuff correctly in our view

STONKS: Are you sad that Kyler Murray chose football in the name of all people with weird Kyle-derivative names? Would a nice, cold, refreshing can of Monster Energy ™ make it all better?

Kiley McDaniel: oh wait this reminds me of something

Kiley McDaniel:

Kiley McDaniel: ran into this last and week and hoooo boy is it something

Kiley McDaniel: so like her point is that monster energy is trying to make everyone become satan worshippers but they only do it by subtle branding nods? Or that everyone that runs the company are satan worshippers and thus they…want to kill you? Just not a lot of action points here

Jim Bob Cooter: Any idea what happened with Kristian Cardozo and the Dodgers? Signed July 2, then signed with Seattle like three weeks later.

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t sign initially. There were a few erroneous J2 signing reports

Kiley McDaniel: Expected to sign with LAD, then signed with SEA

Parts and Gleyber: Any update on Mitch Haniger’s ruptured testicle?

Kiley McDaniel: THERE WILL NEVER BE ONE HERE

Dan: How would you rate Scout’s chipmunk catching skills ?

Kiley McDaniel: she hasn’t caught a living one yet, but she’s a 70 with lizards

Robert: Think Abrams goes higher if we redrafted? Maybe the Tigers think twice?

Kiley McDaniel: I think each room was set enough on their guy that it still goes the same order

Jonathan: Quinn Priester looks good so far (lots of ground balls, lots of swinging strikes, pretty good control, delivery looks very nice to my admittedly amateurish, faux-scout eyes).  Is this what folks expected from him out of the gate?

Kiley McDaniel: basically, yes

Kiley McDaniel: and the Priesters are one of the families that we learned during the draft process reads FG a lot so yes root for Quinn

angels: also, would like to propose again a board with all mlb players in arbitration or before to help put value on team control in general

Kiley McDaniel: oh you don’t think we’ve been planning this for awhile psh THE BOARD will never stop expanding

Vander: Is Rece Hinds a pretty similar project for the Reds as Aquino was? As in, unlimited power potential, but with too much aggresiveness to take advantage of it?

Kiley McDaniel: yeah similar idea

Kiley McDaniel: I think Aquino, at this age/level, was seen about the same as Hinds is now

Darragh: Hey, Kiley. Thanks for the chat, as always.

What am I missing with Riley Adams? He has a wRC+ of at least 110 in each professional season, including a 119 this year in AA. Not bad for a catcher. Yet he isn’t on THE BOARD.

Bad defence? No game calling? Lack of power? Where’s the pessimism come from?

Kiley McDaniel: Worried that contact would regress at higher levels and that agility behind the plate was just okay. He was a 40 and 35+ somewhat recently, so he isn’t off by much, is in consideration to go back on with a good report.

Champdo: It seems Riley Greene can hold his own in cf. Is it possible he could stick there?

Kiley McDaniel: He improved his speed this spring and is a 50 runner now. I don’t think he’ll hold that forever and there’s not many CF with 50 speed, so I wouldn’t count on it

Kiley McDaniel: He wasn’t terrible in CF when I saw him this spring but I would think most teams could find better

Reds Fans: Based on your eye, are the changes in the Punisher’s approach real and can explain the breakout? We want Aquino to be good very badly 😀

Kiley McDaniel: Went from 35 FV to 45 FV in one week so we’re at least part of the way in

STONKS: who picked out the name “THE BOARD!” ? I love it

Kiley McDaniel: I think I picked the all capsness but I think it was just an obvious name?

STONKS: PUT JOSH ROJAS ON THE BOARD! YOU COWARDS

Kiley McDaniel: He went on at the deadline

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: 38th

Justin: Is Brailyn Marquez breaking out?

Kiley McDaniel: Also on the offseason 50 FV consideration list

Brad : Any thoughts on Riley Greene already being promoted to West Michigan? Too aggressive?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the kind of guy that gets the quick hook, lke Gorman or Kelenic. Pure hitter that’s got a multi-year amateur track record

Gorland: basball

Kiley McDaniel: *baseball

Sean: I like the FV idea in concept, but I think it makes it difficult to properly assess prospects. For starters, it seems weird to me that a grading scale that is based on standard deviations (50 being average with the range from 20 to 80 representing -3 and +3 std dev respectively) that the grading of prospects doesn’t reflect this same distribution (it should much closer to a normal distribution). Futhermore, I feel like the large amount of prospects that come in around 50 FV make it really difficult to differentiate between higher potential but riskier prospects and lower potential but higher floor prospects and everything in between. Do you think there is room for improvement on this grading scale?

Kiley McDaniel: Well it’s a normal distribution in MLB

Kiley McDaniel: So all the minor leaguers are just trying to grade them to match the MLB player in general trade value/expected outcome

Kiley McDaniel: And the risk grade is a pretty easy way to do that

Kiley McDaniel: or just age/level vs. FV. a 50 in Low-A can move up a lot more than a 50 in Triple-A

Kiley McDaniel: But we also just finalized yesterday a new way to measure risk in the offseason prospect list

Kiley McDaniel: so it’s more explicit rather than having to use various rubrics to impute things

Kiley McDaniel: (but I’m sure some of you will still complain)

Gavin Lux: In your opinion, will I be closer to a league avg regular or a perennial all star?

Kiley McDaniel: PAS

Gorland: Have you seen my son? I left him in this chat a few minutes ago and now I can’t find him

Kiley McDaniel: okay everybody stop typing and look under your chairs and desk

Kiley McDaniel: dangle a nintendo DS or a tamogachi or whatever kids use these days. anyone have slime?

Steve O: Which defensive position would Wander Franco not be the #1 prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: fetal

Gorland Jr: dad? DAD???

Kiley McDaniel: oh nevermind i found him

Kiley McDaniel: everyone back to work

Gorland: Please help me find Gorland Jr, losing him in a McDaniels chat is perfect ammunition for Karen in the custody hearings oh god oh frick

Kiley McDaniel: ugh KAREN amirite

Hi There: I was listening to a podcast where Eno Sarris said he’d be higher on Casey Mize if he knew his recent struggles had to do with him purposefully putting in work on his lesser pitches. Are you guys ever privy to that sort of insider information, and if so how does it impact your evaluations?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah it’s good to know. PIT is notorious for making pitchers throw 75% fastballs for every outing in their first full year. The usage percentages aren’t public but we can get ahold of them, so we usually know if something weird is going on. It’s noted in a few blurbs when it’s odd, like TBR RHP Joe Ryan is like 75% fastballs

Big Joe Mufferaw: Do you consider yourself a scout or a writer?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m just trying to be the best Kiley I can be

Kiley McDaniel: (sustained, overly earnest look)

Jeffry!: Wait wait. “5-6 pitchers in the minors now where we’d say there’s a real shot they’re one of of those 10 MLB aces at some point.” Care to name them?

Kiley McDaniel: Hmmmm

Kiley McDaniel: Whitley, Gore, May, Patino

Kiley McDaniel: then you can choose the next few from the group of: Pearson, Manning, Mize, Puk, Kopech, Sixto, Liberatore

Kiley McDaniel: so that’s 11 where I think you could make a solid case, but any one person would probably say 6-10

LudeBurger: In that Lizzo song on the radio, I always heard “Malcolm Middle” instead of “non-committal” and I think that is way better.

Kiley McDaniel: do not agree

Kiley McDaniel: I’m more interested in how she says Minnesota Vikings

CW: Scene: Eric carries an exhausted Kiley to his room after a long day of scouting the backfields.  Eric sets half-asleep Kiley onto his bed and begins to walk away.
Kiley: Eric, can you tell me the Keston Hiura hot chocolate story again?
Eric: Its really late Kiley, you should get some sleep.
Kiley: Just one more time?
Eric: Ok. It all started at an early-season, midweek game at Arizona State. I was up the third base line watching hitters, my teeth chattering, nose running. People walked past me with Styrofoam cups full of steaming hot chocolate….
Eric looks down to sound-asleep Kiley, smiles, tucks in Kiley’s blanket and slips away into a dark house.
END

Kiley McDaniel: ummmmmmm

Kiley McDaniel: i guess we’re there

STONKS: Smoker’s Pro Tip: Go into Fry’s/Kroger/Ralph’s when they have the pork butts/briskets on sale, ideally with a homeless person you pay, and buy out the stock. Return 4-12 hours later, complain that some jerk bought out all the stock, and demand a rain check. have the same homeless person do the same thing. now you have a deep freeze full of smokable meats and you can get the sale price in a month to buy more. Win Win. Is the astros offense at full strength more dangerous than the dodgers and yankees?

nat: I had a dream last night that I was looking at the Red Sox prospects list on the BOARD and you had added a note next to Jarren Duran that said “worthless. no talent.” Can you explain that to me?

Hulkster: Sup brother

Fan Graphs: ARISTEEEEEDDEDEDEDEDEEEESS AQUINO

Ric Flair: WOOOOOOOOO!

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: see you weirdos next week