Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/15/18

tb.25: 12:05?! You’re turning into those radio shows that start 5 minutes late to get listeners tuning in at the top of the hour to listen to commercials

Kiley McDaniel: You’ve figured us out

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is wandering around but I am here to chat with you people. Lets see what you’ve got for me today

D Money: Rank these guys – Madrigal, India, Kelenic & Swaggerty

Kiley McDaniel: Gotta have one of these every week. All of our rankings are sortable and available for your perusal here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx

Keefths: What do you make of what Nolan Gorman has done thus far?
Is the boy legit ?

Kiley McDaniel: Already had him comfortable top 10 in the draft class before he slipped on draft day, still is

AspiringScout: Thoughts on Jerrion Ealy? Looks a little more raw than Jordyn Adams was at this point, but could he follow a similar path and get enough $ to pass on Ole Miss?

Kiley McDaniel: One of the most athletic players in the 2019 prep class. Still not a clear consensus around him, in part due to the funky swing mechanics I’ve mentioned before. Somewhere in the compensation thru 3rd round area, potential to go better than that.

Jim Leyland Palmer: How shocked are you by the PTBNL in the Archer deal? Seems crazy to throw last years 1st rounder on top of that package

sean: does it seem the pirates   really overpaid for archer

Kiley McDaniel: Seemed reasonably fair as a 2-for-1 with once team cashing in a valuable player and another moving guys that weren’t impact guys right now and still had some prospect sheen, but I leaned toward TB’s end of that deal, since I don’t think Archer will be much better than he is now. Throwing in Baz does make it more clear that TB did well here. Still could’ve done better a year or two ago…like you wouldn’t believe how much better…but they did very well with what they had to work with right now.

Jo-Nathan: Hey Kiley, aside from Puason who are some 2019 international guys to watch out for?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a couple other clear million dollar types, but no one particularly close to Puason at this point, though we haven’t diven/dived/doven/doved into it a ton yet. Bayron Lora is a likely left fielder with huge present raw power and some idea how to hit from the DR.

Nihilist Duda: What’s the fv on Mets SS Shervyn Newton? Seems to rake but I haven’t found much on him? Also, on a scale of 1-LOLMets how dumb is it to keep Alonso in AAA for the rest of the year with no Sept callup?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 35+ FV https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=&type=&pos=&team=nym

Kiley McDaniel: It would be pretty dumb to keep Alonso down this year to get that extra year six years from now when he’s a quick-aging R/R first baseman that might be a DH anyway and you’d benefit from seeing what he can do in the big leagues when you’re making the team this offseason. Normally the silly service time stuff makes logical sense for the club, even if it’s not a universal good, but there isn’t much to gain for the Mets here. Alonso won’t be a 5 win player in 6 years where this could be worth it.

Baloo: Are you optimistic about the Tigers’ org future, given the apparent depth of the farm system, or do you think it’s too lacking in top-end talent still?  Do you see any of their current crop as potential future 60+ FVs?

Kiley McDaniel: I think you’re referring to this tweet from our FG Prospects account yesterday

 

FanGraphs Prospects

@FG_Prospects

 

THE BOARD is updated to reflect Shane Baz to TB: fangraphs.com/scoutboard.asp…

A good measure of quality depth to a syst… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

14 Aug 2018

Kiley McDaniel: And the Tigers do have a surprising amount of depth, but I would agree there aren’t a lot of high ceiling, impact types. But when you have a big league team full of useful 0-3 service time guys that are everyday quality…that’s a step forward. TB is basically there, so they can complain about impact since MLB-ready depth isn’t an issue (but TB has some impact on the horizon too).

Prouster: Royce Lewis is hitting well at the high-A level—wOBA .421, wRC+ 165. He just turned 19 do you think there’s a chance he could debut for the Twins sometime next year?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s really good, saw him a few days ago. He’s the type of talent where that is on the table, but comes down to how the org wants to handle it and MIN seems on the conservative side.

Mike: Queue up 100 Braves related questions smh

Kiley McDaniel: Man, you aren’t kidding it’s like half the queue and it isn’t all Acuna either

Largest Adult Son: Brock Burke of the Montgomery Biscuits is off to a quick start at AA.  Is there anything special about him?

Kiley McDaniel: Big lefty into the high 90’s, the rest comes and goes

All Cats Are Beautiful : Is there any area that teams could use money to gain an advantage over their rivals other than major league payroll?  If a team were to have a scout for every minor league team every game, would they gain an advantage?  If a team were to have 20 coaches in every affiliate, would that help?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been stumping for a bunch of DSL teams. I talked to an exec with a club that had multiple additional minor league teams and he said they ran into a problem where non top prospects would perform well and have nowhere to go, getting sent back to the same place the next year. We agreed it made some sense to have, for example, 3 DSL teams, 2 complex league teams, 2 short season teams and 2 Low-A teams, then the normal 1 High-A/Double-A/Triple-A

Kiley McDaniel: That way there’s more of an on-ramp for the 3 additional short season teams to feed to the upper levels. That would also be a lot harder since you’d have to either make an expansion team in Low-A  with a stadium and commit to like 10-15 years, have an uneven number of teams, etc. So, baby steps is probably the answer here

Kiley McDaniel: And there is diminishing returns with more scouts/coaches. Much better to have the right scouts/coaches.

John: Gimenez looks good in AA so far…Is he legit or will his lack of physical projection limit him?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s legit, by almost any definition of the word. He is limited by his physicality, but Gimenez may be a 60 bat and 55-60 glove, so that’s still a 2-3 win player if there’s little power.

Kiley McDaniel: That’s Andres Gimenez, SS with the Mets

Bo: Current contracts included, would you rather have Acuna or Trout?

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-1-to-10/

Kiley McDaniel: Trout was 4 and Acuna 17 about a month ago. Acuna has probably moved up since then, but not to 4.

Scott: Let’s say a guy literally had to crawl to first. Would you then give him a speed grade under 20? Could he be given a 5?  That would clearly be under 3 standard deviation a from the mean

Kiley McDaniel: We joke about “this guy is a 10 runner” but 20 is the bottom of the scale

All Cats Are Beautiful : How do some teams like the Yankees end up with a disproportionately high number of the top international prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: In the current climate, deals are done for most top players 12-24 months ahead of time. So, good scouting and some good fortune can lead to unusually good returns right after J2.

Kiley McDaniel: Now those early returns aren’t always indicative of what will happen. But Vlad Jr was the top 16 year old in his class, Soto was a clear top 10-20 player, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: And, for NYY in particular, lately they’ve tended to lock up some guys early, not get the tippy top bonus types, then scoop up some guys late that either emerged late or had deals fall thru, while other teams are out of money. Cash trading for extra pool space also helps with that in their case.

Anthony: Nationals are down to 25% postseason odds. Should/will they trade Bryce? Relatedly, do front offices put any stock into the narrative that a player is tougher to re-sign if traded midseason?

Kiley McDaniel: They should, I don’t think they will. I think in this case, there’s a little of that and also there’s probably some ownership not wanting to trade a franchise guy in general. A 5% increase in the odds he may stay could be worth not getting the trade return…not sure I feel that way, but I could see them connecting those dots.

D: Do you have a comp for Alex Kirilloff? What’s his upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t see a perfect one, but it’s easy plus hit and plus raw with maybe 55 in game power, solid in right field. Just pick an elite LHH with hit over power and you’re pretty close.

Zack: When is the next Top 100 prospects list coming out?

Kiley McDaniel: We just put one out like two weeks ago

Kiley McDaniel: Well, not an article per se, but THE BOARD completely changed two weeks ago and all the players are updated per the trades

AJ: Touki was fun on Monday. He was throwing something that registered as a split, but I don’t recall seeing that ever written about. I’m guessing it was the changeup? Seemed like a good pitch.

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a changeup, but the various algorithms always classified it as a split in the minors. It’s a 60 pitch at times, sometimes throws it too hard.

Tumbler, Whiskey: What do you have on CF Alek Thomas? He’s been hitting consistently since he signed. What’s the overall profile/ceiling there?

Kiley McDaniel: Lower ceiling guy, but clear upside to be a regular, long track record in high school, advanced feel to hit and play defense, plus wheels. A bunch more here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all…

Humpty: Madrigal has K’ed 2 times in 100 PAs.  Wow.

Kiley McDaniel: We aren’t always right, but we told you he was good! https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/could-a-5-foot-8-second-baseman-be-dra…

v2micca: I have never heard of a PTBNL being the number 4 guy in your system.  Its normally organizational filler.  What happened?

Kiley McDaniel: Often it’s a way to get more looks at a few players before you decide. I would guess (not sure) that TB had a couple guys they liked near the top of PIT’s system and wanted to make sure, while PIT was fine with any of that group.

Stuafoo: Do you have any details on the Ms recent scout firings?

Kiley McDaniel: Pro and amateur, every indication is all the positions will be replaced by different scouts. Believe it was 7 total, including one international scout.

Wander Franco: Is the baseball world overreacting to my rookie league performance, or are my tools really i really that good?  I mean, top 20 overall already? Not that I’m complaining.

Kiley McDaniel: You should have more self confidence bc you’re really good. Similar to the earlier Royce Lewis question, all the elements are there for a guy that shoots thru the minors, but some teams like to take it slower, even with those types of players.

Vslyke: The Pirates gearing up for the NL Central over the next couple of years seems like a terrible decision. Is this a decision being imposed by ownership?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a lot of theories out there and you’re hitting on one of them. I can say that PIT would not even entertain discussing their top prospects for years, even for top trade candidates and when they had a better MLB team than they do right now. So, this was unusual to see three of them traded at once, especially after they sold on a similar talent in Gerrit Cole before the season. Why they did this now is unclear, but it’s definitely raising questions around the industry and baseball people love to gossip.

PM: What is the lowest FV youve given a player who turned out to be a regular and who was it? Or one example if there are too many

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve only been using the FV system for a few years, but I think a 40+ on Matt Duffy the year before he put up 4.4 WAR is the most egregious example. Looks pretty fluky now and no one saw it coming either, but don’t like being that wrong.

Spicy Boy: When a team agrees to a seemingly lop-sided trade (ex: STL agreeing to trade Pham to TB), how often is it that the team making the “bad” end of the deal knows something about the players involved (ex: maybe Pham’s eyesight is bad again, or maybe Justin Williams posts elite EV’s) that would greatly change public perception of the deal if that information weren’t private?

Kiley McDaniel: I get the impression that STL wanted to clear space for O’Neill/Bader and dump Pham before he regressed or got old/expensive and there just wasn’t a huge market for him. TB is a value shopper so they jumped in. STL has also had some luck changing swings quickly, like O’Neill, so maybe Williams was a guy they are higher on than most since he’s a flatter plane hitter. That trade seems weird at first glance and less weird the more you look into it.

John: Don’t look now but Tyler Kolek is finally pitching again in the NYPL! What do you think of him at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: He sure throws hard

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Are there any notable risers/fallers since the draft due to new information/scouting that wasn’t available beforehand?

Kiley McDaniel: Nothing too crazy. RHP Michael Grove, the 2nd rounder for the Dodgers from West Virginia, missed the last year plus due to TJ and wasn’t a big name or heavily scouted before that, so he wasn’t on our radar and probably should’ve been. Since he wasn’t hyped in the media, teams were shy about talking about him and drumming up more interest. Mitchell White, another Dodgers pick, was kinda like that too. Cory Abbott with the Cubs was another example from 2017.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Isn’t saying future FV kinda defeat the purpose of FV in the first place? That’s kinda like saying PIN number

Kiley McDaniel: I will say we don’t use FV for the future grade on a tool but I’ve noticed a lot of you do. You can do what you want, but we use “FV” only for that one number and some version of future  or future grade or whatever for specific tool grades

Iunno: Where would Baz rank on the “Prospects traded at the trade deadline”?

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-de…

Kiley McDaniel: Would be 2nd of the true prospects, behind Francisco Mejia

Kiley McDaniel: 3rd on this list, behind Meadows.

Jim: Twitter keeps having the Braves send Ian Anderson away in trades over guys like Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint. Is he the most likely Braves SP prospect to be moved this offseason?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d still guess it’s Allard or Wilson, if they can pick anyone to deal from that top tier, because their ceilings are lower and they are performing, minus Allard’s short MLB look.

Mario: How bright is the Rays future?

Kiley McDaniel: Brighter if they could spend $150M in payroll to keep any start they made internally…but still really bright because it’ll be hard to mess up this amount of talent

Dan: which guys could we see at AFL? I heard Robert is going, Senzel said he might, what about Sixto, Vlad, Whitley, Bart, McKenzie, Pache? Anybody else with a shot?

Kiley McDaniel: All of those make sense. Vlad and Pache don’t really need reps but some teams send guys there to get them used to the longer season if they will be in the bigs next September.

James: Saw you mention Nick Sandlin is pitching very well & should be the first guy from the ’18 draft in the big leagues. Is he unique as a sidearm reliever or is a matchup guy what he is expected to be?

Kiley McDaniel: He has the elements to start, but I can’t think of the last true sidearm starter, so I’d guess either 8th inning guy or multi-inning fireman when the other team is RHH heavy

Kiley McDaniel: Have an article coming soon (maybe today?) that talks about candidates in non-TB orgs that make sense for the 2nd to 5th inning pitcher the Rays are using and Sandlin is mentioned.

Tyler: Hudson Potts seems to be moving quickly, but I haven’t heard much about him, is he just not that exciting as his age/level seem to indicate?

Kiley McDaniel: That part is good, tools are solid but probably not a 60 in there. Very quietly in Double-A at age 19. Would guess he’ll end up a 50 FV this offseason.

Not working: CJ Alexander. 20th rounder hitting well already. Can you tell me more?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably 1B fit, big power, questions about contact given competition level and age. He’s 22, so is more like a 4-year college senior that was facing lots of 19 year olds, thus he should be moved quickly and challenged to see what it is. I’ll sneak out to see him soon.

Reggie: Heard from someone who has an inside source that said the Braves offered Pache, Gohara, and Anderson for Archer, thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t believe that, because TB would’ve taken it

Mike O: Would you consider doing a team development system rankings? Maybe even by position (or position groups)

Kiley McDaniel: way ahead of you…

Guy: what purpose does the PTBNL serve? Are there ever any significant disagreements over who it will be, after a trade has already been completed?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a group of names that are agreed upon ahead of time and a deadline to make the decision, which MLB is looped into.

Greg: Do you think Ray-Didder has the tools to be a quality MLB utility player?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, but the consistency and hit tool kinda come and go. Can play literally every position on the field, plus plus runner and thrower.

Alex: Did the Marlins make a mistake if the Nats truly offered Robles for Realmuto and they passed?

Kiley McDaniel: Well the trade value rankings say WSH would have to throw in one more solid piece, but I don’t think MIA would get a better headlining piece than that

Eric: Could you see Austin Riley moving to the Outfield with the emergence of Camargo at 3rd base? (Or Camargo replacing Markakis)

Kiley McDaniel: I believe the idea is Camargo is the Zobrist/Marwin Gonzalez type if everyone pans out and is the everyday 3B if they don’t.

Oyster Burns: How do perreria and Cabello compare to florial when he got stateside? You have a preference between the 3?

Kiley McDaniel: Cabello is an upside type, Pereira is the hit-tool first/skills one, Florial is also an upside type but with much more already proven https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018updated&type=0&pos…

v2micca: Before the last CBA, it seems that J2 signings were a massive market inefficiency that teams could exploit.  Yet, it feels like few teams really took advantage of it.  Am I just mis-remembering or was something else going on?

Kiley McDaniel: It took longer than it should have for teams to realize it was worth it to go way over and pay the penalty. Or maybe longer than it should have for ownership to agree with their execs.

I talked to one director who was in the first wave of going over and he explained his strategy to buscones and they didn’t believe him, since no one had done it before and they didn’t understand the rules. Buscones thought the team was cutting 10 deals and was gonna pull out of 7 of them.

Bo: When should the Nationals put Harper on waivers? What would stop a non-contender from putting a claim with no intention of striking a deal?

Kiley McDaniel: They’d get stuck with a hefty contract, so don’t think they would. I’d do it sooner than later, since the amount of PAs you’re selling will be cut in half at the end of the month.

Mr. Fister: What FV would you assign to Logan Gilbert if he were to sustain his end-of-season velocity up-tick?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a 50 FV if he’s the 92-95 t97 guy he was on the Cape.

Jake: Can Wander Franco be the next guy to burst onto the scene at 19-20 like Soto and Acuna?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, he seems like the next possibility. Royce Lewis has a chance. Obviously Vlad Jr and Tatis, but I think everyone knew about them a while ago.

Kyle: Jeremiah Jackson would go top 15 in a redraft? Yes/No

Kiley McDaniel: We were the highest on him pre-draft and he would go higher, but probably not that high. Key piece of data was new glasses in the spring, so his summer performance could almost be tossed out and his spring performance (against weak competition) was insane. Had tools the whole time.

Kevin: Somewhat off topic question: when you guys write articles, do you have to hyperlink all the players’ names yourself or is that some poor intern’s job?

Kiley McDaniel: It is fully automated now, just a click or two. Used to be a little more involved. And it was a pain to link them to the player page so they showed up under their names as a recent article. That’s now automated, too.

Kiley McDaniel: But I also have two interns that are doing other annoying work for me, there’s always plenty to go around. You guys will especially appreciate the thing they’re working on, though.

Mr. Fister: Is the 2019 draft as clear cut as Bobby Witt Jr. and then everybody else?  Are there any players in the class who currently match or exceed his upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Funny you ask that because I have a list just for you: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2019mlb&type=0&pos=all…

Kiley McDaniel: and for 2020 and 2021, as well

Kiley McDaniel: Witt has had lots of contact issues this summer, but essentially has the Brendan Rodgers tool package, maybe a hair more.

Kiley McDaniel: This will update soon, as the summer showcase stuff has ended, but it’ll look reasonably close to what we have right now

Alan: Just wanted to say that I retract my prior skepticism about Vidal Brujan. Thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: Just wanted to get that on the record, thanks

concerned prospect: Is it possible you can help clarify the “Future Value” ratings you have for prospects and how it is correlated to the ratings for their individual tools?  Sometimes I see guys that have their “Future Value” lower then the potential for all of their tools.  For example, Andrew Suarez has all of his pitches and command at a potential rating of 50 or better but his “Future Value” is 40.

Kiley McDaniel: Here’s a breakdown I wrote a couple years ago. It’s tied to the WAR scale. A player with a PV/FV of 60–somebody like Brett Gardner–has a true talent level of 3 WAR. When a prospect has an FV of 60, like Bo Bichette, we’re saying his realistic/expected outcome is a 3 win player. The further they are from the big leagues, the more variance/risk is included. A 60 FV in Low-A is something like a 1-5 WAR band of possibilities, while one in Triple-A is more like 2-4 WAR.

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-…

Stuafoo: Re: Ms scouts again. How does that kind of decision get made? Is it coming from JeDi or more likely elsewhere? Since they’re being replaced any idea on what the direction shift will be?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a GM call. Normally, when it’s a bunch of scouts across departments and not immediate internal promotions to fill the spots, it’s just wanting new blood or a different type of evaluator, often getting rid of people from prior administrations.

Esteban Loaiza: Looks like I’m the new captain of the prison yard baseball team.  If you ever visit the joint, I could use your scouting prowess to build a monster.

Kiley McDaniel: 10-4

Spicy Boy: Odubel Herrera was listed by you in the “others of note” section in 2015! (not criticizing, no one saw that coming)

Kiley McDaniel: Oh man, if that’s true then that’s a bad one.

Kiley McDaniel: Luckily I never had to rank Jose Ramirez or he’d definitely be the top of the list

RONALD.ACUNA.JR.: RONALD.ACUNA.JR.

Kiley McDaniel: oh it’s already time, huh?

John Wick: JOHN. WICK.

Eno Sarris: ENO. SARRIS.

Bob Ross: BOB. ROSS.

Kiley McDaniel: The Holy Trinity

Kiley McDaniel: And what better way to end a super sized chat today than with some happy trees. Okay it’s time to walk and feed Scout and Kiley see ya next week