Kiley McDaniel Chat – 9/18/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is napping and I’m sipping a protein shake.

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve added some high-speed video to the @FG_Prospects twitter account, @fangraphs instagram and @fangraphs YouTube. Trevor Bauer, Ian Anderson, Justin Dunn, Nate Pearson the most recent.

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve continued to pull prospects off the lists that have graduated and Nate Lowe and Jonathan Loaisiga graduated today, so they’ll get taken off shortly. Look at the farm rankings before they change again: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: Okay, sorry for the delay, I just took both of them off the lists

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

BlueJayMatt: If you were in charge would you change the rules to allow draft pick trading in mlb? Maybe with some restrictions in place like the nba who don’t allow consecutive first round picks to be traded?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes and I think the owners/MLB have come around on this. They let comp picks be traded in the last CBA and are proposing and int’l draft where all picks can be traded. Their reasons for not doing it was to control the process and not let agents dictate picks, but now that the draft/J2 are hard-capped and that doesn’t even happen in the NFL, they can’t even come up with a reason to not do it. And it’ll make the broadcast more fun/watched/profitable.

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, maybe something like can’t trade 3 straight 1st rounders but there’s so many picks in MLB vs. just 2 rounds in the NBA and the NBA is dictated by a handful of stars that this wouldn’t be as big of an issue in baseball

Jung Tom Morris: Josh Jung had just 1 home run in roughly a quarter of a season in the Sally League.  That seems like a big red flag, particularly given the questions about his power pre-draft.  How concerned should Rangers fans be?

Kiley McDaniel: If you’ve been here you probably know the answer to this one: NO

Kiley McDaniel: also, if you read out Jung pre-draft report, he’s notable for

1. he can hit
2. he has raw power
3. his current swing doesn’t allow him to consistently pull/lift the ball, so the game power with wood vs. good pitching won’t be there

Kiley McDaniel: that combined with a super long season/fatigue and this shouldn’t be surprising at all

Serious question: Would Roki Sasaki be eligible for the MLB 2020 draft or considered an international FA? Will you guys be doing any articles on him?

Kiley McDaniel: Japanese HS kid up to 100 mph, for those not aware. He’s J2 eligible but Japanese HS kids don’t sign with MLB teams, even though they technically could, for cultural reasons. Ohtani almost did but ultimately opted to go to NPB for a set amount of time, rather than letting the team dictate when he was posted.

Purple Mays Haze: Rotowire has minor league “hard hit%”  (not sure what their source or definition is). Will Fangraphs get this or equivalent soon?

Kiley McDaniel: CTRL+F “Hard” on an MLB player page and you’ll find it

Ric Okay Sic: Can Nick Solak hit enough for the Rangers to live with his glove at 3B?

Kiley McDaniel: I think so

Aaron: Hey Kiley. Aaron Bummer here. I wanted to- … oh sorry, I’ll leave

Kiley McDaniel: a real gentleman

All Star by Smash Mouth: In a world where budget constraints and service time manipulation didn’t exist, when would the Rays call up Franco?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably in AA to end this year with a chance at a call up if there was a need, but some time between May and July of next year, playing between AA/AAA would make sense on merit

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: So, you and Eric come to a consensus when making the BOARD, correct? But at some point there has to be some disagreement, so I’m wondering which players are either higher or lower than you personally would put them at?

Kiley McDaniel: The disagreement is usually one of us thinks a guy will perform well and move up and wants to be aggressive now, while the other wants to wait and see the performance…so in that case we go conservative with a quick move if the performance is as good as expected

Tony the Tiger: Will JJ Bleday be on track to be with the big league club by 2021 if all goes well health wise and development wise?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure

AZL Guys: What roster has the most appeal? What’s some dope on guys you’re looking to see.

Kiley McDaniel: For an objective view on this, check out our AFL prospect board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-arizona-fall-league…

Guest: Is it meaningful / telling of approach that ARI doesn’t have any prospects above a 50 FV?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s only 38 players above a 50 FV right now, so 0 is just 1 away from a league-wide average

sadman: Has prospect valuation peaked? Everyone seems to hold tight to their minor leaguers.

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t imagine it getting higher

Randy: Have you seen enough from Yordan Alvarez for him to warrant top 50 trade value status next year despite probably being limited to DH?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, answered a few weeks ago that he’s probably in the 30’s or 40’s now

Purple Mays Haze: If a minor leaguer hits a bomb in Batting Practice 450 ft, does his Raw automatically go up? How many HRs at that distance would he need to hit before it goes up? Also, are there distances which correlate to the grades (e.g. 400 ft is 50, 425 ft is a 55), etc.

Kiley McDaniel: Once you do it once it’s possible, once you do it twice, it’s repeatable

Kiley McDaniel: 450 ft multiple times in one BP session, without a super juiced ball (Futures Game BP got one in 2018) or super strong winds blowing out would be 70 or 80 raw power

Kiley McDaniel: 400 feet is generally a 60

Kiley McDaniel: hit a squeaker 400 feet that scrapes the CF wall on the way out and it’s a 60, all things being equal

sadman: Kiley, I’m at work and I’m booooorrrreeedddd. Help me escape…

Kiley McDaniel: Am i doing it?

sadman: When you scout, do you use binoculars?

Kiley McDaniel: lol no

Logan: Does Ian Anderson have a pitch that will consistently miss bats at the MLB level? What do you think of his delivery in terms of long-term arm health?

Kiley McDaniel: The FB and CH are both plus at times

Joe H: With many teams having different titles for similar jobs, could Fangraphs put together a general glossary of titles in the various positions in baseball operations, R&D, scouting, player development with a brief description of the job. Maybe put an intern in charge of making updates and having it posted somewhere on the site to be referenced. Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: funny you mention that

Vander: Are we going to get a list of the best international prospects for 2020 any time soon?

Kiley McDaniel: We generally do that during prospect week in February

Kiley McDaniel: But we have 12-15 guys ranked with full info and like 30 other names

Eric Gregg: How much have the radar gun readings varied over the years?  I was watching old All Star game footage from around 1990 and guy like Clemens and Smoltz were considered flamethrowers at 91-92 mph.  Then in 2005 both are 96.  Wonder what they would read today?

Kiley McDaniel: Velo has gone up pretty steadily just in the pitch f/x era, I think like a tick every 2-3 years, then more like a tick a year recently, but we’re kinda plateauing now

Spider Puig: Where will Malvin Valdez rank on the 2020 BOARD for international prospects? Top 5? 10? Off the board entirely because Reds fans were born to suffer?

Kiley McDaniel: 10-15 range for us right now

Angry : Do teams have programs to incentivize players working out in off-season and eating healthy and taking care of themselves?  This seems like it would be one of the easier things to do yet.

Kiley McDaniel: Generally, players get an offseason plan but it’s kinda up to them how much they follow it

Kiley McDaniel: maybe smart teams are making apps and gamifying it?

Billy Beane: Kiley, who is the best baseball player at FanGraphs these days? It probably used to be Jeff, but now I don’t know?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think any of us are very good

Kiley McDaniel: I mean I’m terrible but I played in HS and like half the staff probably didn’t?

K Rock: Hi Kiley.  How do your view Zac Gallen moving forward?  Seems most ranking him as a 5/6, but he’s been pitching as a 2/3.  Is he pitching over his head?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably a 4

Washed: Why don’t we see more minor leaguer for minor leaguer trades?

Kiley McDaniel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect

Hayden Schenker: I own Daulton Varsho in multiple dynasty leagues and am so pleased with his rapid acceleration through the minors and his consistent output with the bat. Everything I read is that he is a good catcher and now he is even getting time elsewhere in the field to increase his versatility. I can’t help but feel that he is criminally underranked in most lists. What are your thoughts on Varsho?

Kiley McDaniel: Not an everyday defensive catcher, but good enough to stick back there for versatility. Arm is often a 40 or 45, but he’s oddly also a plus runner and is something like 5’9/220

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t think of a guy with those skills and that frame to compare him to

DJ Tanner: Did Vidal Brujan exceed expectations, meet expectations, or fell below expectations for you this year?

Kiley McDaniel: met

Todd : Just how good could Bobby Witt Jr be?

Kiley McDaniel: Trevor Story-ish

Purple Mays Haze: Drew Waters seems to be a divisive player amongst evaluators. What is the main concern?

Kiley McDaniel: Plate discipline, when he gets to the in-game HRs

MIke: The Tigers have essentially wrapped up the #1 pick next year. What are the chances Austin Martin becomes that pick? Seems like he checks off the most boxes of the top guys.

Kiley McDaniel: I’d say Martin, Torkelson and Hancock are kinds three-way tied at this point. Tork is like Vaughn and won’t change much in terms of stock. Hancock could slide ahead if he’s healthy all year and shoves akin to Mize. Martin could be a Swanson/Bregman type if he keeps progressing and a strong season for him would trump the other two. Anyone else is a real longshot at this point, like maybe 10-15% at best?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll say
Martin – 40%
Hancock – 30%
Torkelson – 25%
Other – 5%

Kiley McDaniel:

Kiley McDaniel: should say most understated

Vincent Adultman: Have you heard of any J2 signings who are substantially different from early reports (mostly because no one has seen the kid in several months)

Kiley McDaniel: That’s more for US instructs, which is in a few weeks

Baseball Ops: With baseball operations & PD job opening season upon us, what are some things people don’t realize about working for a team?

Kiley McDaniel: The higher up you go, the less of a life you have, if your skills are valued

Kiley McDaniel: and provided you aren’t like the former GM that’s a special assistant

Kiley McDaniel: once you’ve reached the top, these things don’t apply

MIke: Follow up on Austin Martin… do you think he needs to prove he can play SS to go #1? Or is he still that caliber of player even if he’s more of a 2B/CF?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s still a bias against 2B, but less so against 3B/CF. If he definitely can’t play SS, then the lack of baseball athleticism argument would make some sense, even though I wouldn’t really buy it.

Kiley McDaniel: If Martin is a stone-cold not a SS, Torkelson is 1B-only and Hancock is just okay, then it’s a toss up to personal preference

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Odds on Kumar Rocker reaching Strasburgian hype?

Kiley McDaniel: 22%

Billy Beane: I voted other, because you’ll never go broke betting on the future being more uncertain than we think it is.

Kiley McDaniel: Tend to agree

McDaniel Athlete Management : Kiley – Not sure what the business actually looks like but would you ever consider working as an adviser or an agent? Seems like you have friends on that side of the game have the network and eval skills to pull it off.

Kiley McDaniel: If it was just picking players, interacting with players and getting them paid: sure. I understand there’s a good bit of other stuff, stuff I’m not nuts about.

James: Are the Angels the favorite to sign Cristian Hernandez in the 2020 J2 signing period?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope

Billy Beane: Hey Kiley, I am an accountant who is almost 30 knows SQL, Python, and some Spanish (but definitely not fluent), and has built a couple of small, but pretty neat baseball websites but otherwise have no relevant job history. How would be the best way of putting together a baseball resume?

Kiley McDaniel: Do a project that is something close to what you’d do in a front office, make a resume with some links/attachments and cold email it to people. Usually Asst. Dir. of BB Ops is about the level where their opinions matters and they aren’t so swamped that they won’t scan the resumes

James: Are you guys buying into the hype on Ed Howard, Tyler Soderstrom and Drew Romo? Should we expect to rise on the 2020 board?

Kiley McDaniel: Howard and Soderstrom will be up, Romo has been around that 30-45 range for a while

All the Dzingel Ladies: In the world of low value bat-first 1B, why is Tork projected to go so high? Can’t teams develop more value by drafting an athletic HS CF/SS?

Kiley McDaniel: He has 7 raw power, a 5 bat and insane performance at the highest amateur levels

Jason: Also just want to give my appreciation and thanks to you and Eric for all the great work guys!

LudeBurger: just want to say I love ya, bud

Kiley McDaniel: lotta love out here today

AD: Why aren’t you less handsome?

Kiley McDaniel: ok that was a little weird

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: I heard Jasson Dominguez created the great lakes while walking with his trusty blue ox, Babe.

Kiley McDaniel: Feels like the NYY prospect hype machine and latched onto a new host

Mason Jarre: Who pitches more ML innings in 2020, Clarke Schmidt or Deivi Garcia?

Kiley McDaniel: Deivi

Pablo Sandoval: What are the cheat codes for Offseason Plan 2019 on PS4?

Kiley McDaniel: TOWELDRILL

Tim Robinson: Kudos for giving real job advice

sadman: Smurf Salad

Fan: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: oh man snuck right up on me

Kiley McDaniel: see you guys next week