Kiley McDaniel Chat – 9/5/18

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay! Was going back and forth with offers/counters on a house, so that took slight precedent over this baseball chat

Kiley McDaniel: So, for those that haven’t seen it yet, I posted something today breaking down Dylan Cease (CHW), Matt Manning (DET) and Brendan McKay (TB) and which of those three types of players is normally underrated by list season

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/should-we-adjust-how-we-evaluate-pitch…

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions

squeeze bunt: What do you think is the best predictor of a pitcher taking a step forward with command?  Do you think there is a correlation between height/length and command?

Kiley McDaniel: Athleticism is the best single direct comp for command we have, but it’s usually a combination of factors. I’d tend to bet on longer-limbed elite athletes that are growing into their frame in the mid-20’s to improve, particularly if they aren’t a high 90’s type that’s always trying to throw it through the backstop

Edward : JB Bukauskus legit starter material?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’ll be able to start, but his breaking ball heavy approach and hittable fastball could also be a multi inning relief type. I would guess he breaks into the bigs in a relief role since that’s pretty easy to see working

Guest: How can players who have *swing and miss* problems correct them?  It is cognitive ability (pitch recognition), hand eye coordination, swing mechanics, or all/none of the above? Why can’t a guy like Moncada seem to get over the hump?

Kiley McDaniel: Like command, it matters why there is an issue. Some teams look for guys that have a tight two-strike zone (capable of being selective) but are free swingers early in the count (choose not to be)

Kiley McDaniel: It’s different for every guy and sussing out which one is the biggest cause is how you can tell if you’ll project improvement or not

mamsk: What’s keeping Bubba Thompson from the top 100 discussion? Seems like his season went about as well as you can hope for a toolshed like him who is still relatively new to this baseball-only life.

Kiley McDaniel: He may jump into that conversation in our next/last update before the offseason. He’s performed really well, especially considering being raw was the only real concern.

austin: better prospect elehuris montero or vidal brujan?

Kiley McDaniel: Brujan. He’s has some qualities similar to Madrigal/Albies, but is a less explosive version

Jake Junis Priest: Hi. Was hoping to learn more about Jack Zoellner and why the O’s saw fit to spend money on him. Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: I actually really liked him as a senior sign out of New Mexico and pushed for him…then he got hurt and fell out of contention for us. It’s plus power and some feel to hit, 1B only fit probably

Dustin: Thoughts on Kyle Wright? Minor league numbers aren’t eye-popping, but the Braves also didn’t waste much time getting him into the upper levels of their system. I certainly liked what little I saw out of him last night.

Kiley McDaniel: I know the Trackman stuff for him is a little less than what scouts report, so the swing and miss may never match the 20-80 grades, but at a lower slot with a mid-90’s sinker, he can still be a mid rotation guy with 7-8 K/9

barves: Kiley, how do you project size?  Is there more to it than looking at a guy and thinking “Is he gunna grow more?”

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts typically look at…umm…well they’ll call it trunk in polite company, but it’s the butt. Typically, players grow to fill our proportionally to match the size of their butt. Calves and shoulders, too. Kinda like a puppy with their paws. Short of drastic weight loss (butt gets smaller), this is pretty accurate for non athletes, too.

Guest: Do you think Acuna will find a way to keep the strike outs down moving forward, or is that just part of his game?

Kiley McDaniel: As long as he’s hitting pumps, you’re gonna get some whiffs

Rockie Dangerfield: If you were to scout players in other sports with an eye toward trying to convince a team to try to get them into baseball, what sport would you investigate, and what kind of skills in that sport do you think would translate the best to the diamond?

Kiley McDaniel: If we’re talking ideal pitcher’s frame, swimming seems like a good place to start. Probably better to go more toward present arm speed than physical size, though. Javelin and cricket both seems promising, especially if you can find a tall guy excelling there

Kiley McDaniel: Hitting is just so unique of an act, I think you have to see someone swing first. I’ve seen too many elite athletes with ugly swings to think you can pick them out easily. I’ve seen Calvin Johnson’s swing, though, and if he wasn’t already set for life and not interested, I’d sign him in a second

Muppet: Is Hudson Potts overlooked?

Kiley McDaniel: Still may not be a plus tool, but the age/performance/level is certainly intriguing

hypo: What exactly is meant by a pitch being “firm” , as in a pitcher having a “firm change”

Kiley McDaniel: Thrown harder than the ideal velo. For a changeup, that means the velo separation is less than 8-10, usually

Kiley McDaniel: from the fastball

Kyle: A couple of weeks ago, Fangraphs had an article on Vlad’s quest for .400 and noted that Steamer projections have him as the 18th best hitter (by wRC+) in all of affiliated baseball RIGHT NOW. He certainly seems ready, but is he really “134 wRC+ out of the gate” ready? Do we need to say a prayer for AFL pitchers in Vlad’s first real taste of a favorable hitting environment?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean Acuna and Soto are seen as comparable talents to him and they’ve both kinda done that, no? Vlad may have even higher expectations since he may have the least defensive value of the three.

Zock Jr.: Kiley, I love these chats. All the FG chatters are so smart, entertaining, and patient. But I just started law school, so I keep missing out on chat time! What do I do??

Kiley McDaniel: duh quit law school

Will: What are the odds that Bart hits well enough to make the Giants start the Posey to 1B (or other position) move in 2019/20?

Kiley McDaniel: I wonder if Posey’s health forces this earlier than they’d normally plan it to happen

Derek: Is Amed Rosario finally figuring it out or just noise? (126 WRC+, .817 OPS and 0.9 fWAR over last 30 days)

Kiley McDaniel: Eric saw him a little while ago and didn’t see any huge issues, so I’m inclined to say he might be good

Roger: Is Wenceel Perez a guy? It is seeming like the Tigers are doing a decent job at developing legit MI players like Isaac Paredes so I am hoping the trend continues with Perez

Kiley McDaniel: And Willy Adames. Yeah, sounds like Wenceel is a guy

Al: What do you think of the Mets farm system? Many have said that it has taken a step forward this year

Kiley McDaniel: There have been some steps forward, yes

Eric: Hi Kiley, thanks for the chat! I liked your post on evaluating pitchers, and am curious what “camp” you think BRUSDAR! falls into?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s somewhere between them, but closer to Manning/Cease. His delivery and strike throwing is closer to average, but still inconsistent

Grody Fusion: How do teams develop player’s “eye” at the plate? I know some players say they can see the spin of the ball, and some say they don’t look for that, so maybe it’s a case by case basis? I always wondered if some of it is repetition on advanced pitching machines, or if a lot of it is coaching them on how to prepare/approach their ABs better.

Kiley McDaniel: Some guys appear able to improve at this stuff and others can’t. I don’t think we’re good enough to know which camp guys fall into, so everyone gets this sort of training to see what happens. There’s a lot of theories/drills that different clubs believe in

Kiley McDaniel: and software

DunedinDan: Seems like Nate Pearson’s lost year hasn’t affected his prospect status as much as you’d think since he’s still on some top 100 lists. Is this because of his velo, the nature of his injury, both, neither?

Kiley McDaniel: Both I guess, it wasn’t TJ and his stuff was getting more consistent with each outing and apparently he hit 100 last night

Grody Fusion: I’ve always wondered your background in scouting. Could you maybe briefly explain your route to where you are at now? Did you play in college? Was this something innate to you, or did it take you a while to feel comfortable evaluating/knowing what to look for?

Kiley McDaniel: I started at about 18 (I’m 33 now) and have had some mentors teach me how to scout at games, then mostly ran off and did it myself with some guidance from others along the way. I’ve been told I picked it up a little quicker than most, but I also read a ton about it–knowing BA rankings and tool grades when you get to a game can make learning the scale easier–and was in a position to go to more games than most. Didn’t play past HS and college intramurals, so I’m a little unusual in that sense. I found that I got a lot better in 2012, the year I worked for Keith at ESPN and went to a game or two every day. Mental library is key. You can’t look at a swing and reliably call it stiff until you’ve seen thousands of swings in a short period of time and know what each of those swing were.

Shameless Cardinals Homer: Is there any way we can get combined minor league stats on player pages, the way you do partial seasons at the MLB level?  It would be nice to see a guy’s AA stats combined (with partials underneath) after he’s traded mid-year.  Related: any way to put a guy’s level in chronologically?  If a guy starts at AA and moves back to A+, shouldn’t his AA stats come first?  Sometimes it’s hard to tell if a guy is progressing or regressing without checking game logs.  And while I’m casually asking for stuff that takes lots of time and energy, my yard needs mowing…

Kiley McDaniel: I’m pretty sure we’re about to roll out something like this but it already exists in a form here https://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&q…

Larry: You’ve called Dylan Cease small for a starting pitcher. Is he really not 6’2”? A couple y are ago BA did an article on pitchers heights and 6’2” was the most common height.  Is 6’2” now considered small?

Kiley McDaniel: I was under the impression he’s 6’1 and the average pitcher height in the bigs is 6’3 or 6’4. I guess you could call him average, probably more fringe-average? Not tall, though.

Lanny: Who will be the GM of the Orioles next year ?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like the Duke

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Have you written a scouting report on Scout? Does he have plus speed? Above average fetching ability? Does he have command of his commands? Does he have any physical projection left?

Kiley McDaniel: Only the greyhound at the dog park has been able to beat her in a race. She’ll fetch but rarely returns. Moreso cute and aloof than task-focused

NYTT: Johan Camargo has really changed his profile since he was a prospect. How often do you see this big of a difference between the two?

Kiley McDaniel: He changed between 2016 and 2017, adding a good bit of muscle and power, becoming more fringy defensively at SS after being average there. The numbers before that is a different player

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: So CHAR has been mentioned in the past few chats.  I suppose we need to get the 5 tools down.  I say quality of questions selected for answering (hit), quality of answers (power), # of ?’s answered per chat (speed) (Jaffe is a 20), How likeable the host is (fielding) (Sullivan and Kiley 80’s), and lastly intangibles/non baseball related Q’s and A’s (arm strength).  I feel like this needs a discussion.

Kiley McDaniel: Pretty sure I’m not an 80 at likability but I’m all for turning people into faceless metrics it’s one of my favorite things

Dave in London: If N. Cruz leaves the Mariners through free agency, what’s the likelihood that Vogelbach makes the team as a DH/1B?

Kiley McDaniel: Odds are higher that Jerry makes 14 trades to address that position

Kiley McDaniel: And his favorite trading partner TB has Joe McCarthy, Nate Lowe and JiMan Choi *hmmmm emoji*

Anderson Cooper: Hello Kiley, Anderson Cooper here. I’m here of course to get a sense of what we can expect in the coming days as this breaking FortniteGate story develops. When will Congress subpoena Carlos Asuaje and Wil Myers?

Kiley McDaniel: WHAT ABOUT HIS EMAILS

Oyster Burns: is Adames your preference in the Rays glut of middle infielders? If so, who is your second favorite in the system long term? I know they’re all at different levels, but I’m thinking guys like wendle, lowe, solak, and then even fox, brujan, franco

Kiley McDaniel: Franco and Adames are the best. I have a soft spot for Solak and Wendle is lightning hot. I see Lowe as more of a bat that you find a spot for.

Lester Holt: Lester Holt here, good afternoon Mr. McDaniel. Can you tell us what we should make of the Trump administration’s refusal to comment on the developing FortniteGate story? Are there more details here that we won’t know for days, weeks, or even months?

Kiley McDaniel: If I don’t get a question from Jake Tapper, I’m going to be furious

Roger: International amateur free agents tend to get signed to large bonuses around age 16-17, while those 18+ tend to get smaller bonuses. Bobby Witt, Jr is almost a full year older than Maurice Hampton, Jr. Aside from skill set and signing eligibility, how much is age a factor in assessing domestic players?

Kiley McDaniel: huge factor, but primarily in top 3 round prep hitters, much less important for other group

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15295/doctoring-the-nu…

Kiley McDaniel: first research was done here

Oyster Burns: when you say a guy has a good feel to hit, are you referring to his ability to manipulate the barrel or his approach at the plate? which minor leaguer not named after a Hall of Famer do you think has the best feel to hit?

Kiley McDaniel: Usually both qualities, we’d probably single one out if it was just one of them. Whenever he comes out of the injury nexus, it might be Nick Senzel

Bear: Well, do you have a new house now?

Kiley McDaniel: I have made an offer than was accepted, so now the inspection and all that stuff happens

Connor: Greatest outlook so far between Faedo, Manning, and Burrows?

Kiley McDaniel: Manning

UCL: should milb coaching staffs start preaching a “less velo, more control” approach.

Kiley McDaniel: No, I tend to think command is somewhat innate, or the pitcher comes about it on his own. I may say take more low bonus control types with clean arm strokes and try to get them to throw harder

Kiley McDaniel: But I generally don’t subscribe to one size fits all when it comes to scouting or development

Kiley McDaniel: I find it’s usually used to hide a deficiency. I didn’t mess up, this guy doesn’t fit the profile, etc.

derek: Deivi Garcia’s ceiling was a back end starter or relief pitcher due to his size. Now he got promoted to double A  and dominated on his debut. will he be in the big leagues next year?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a tough one. Still seems reliever-y to me given the size and FB-CB focus in his approach. Another prospect that fits best in that multi inning role since he can turn over a lineup but maybe not twice

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear?

Kiley McDaniel: You could say I like them, yes.

Kiley McDaniel: This better be going somewhere, counselor

Henry: A few years ago, Nomar Mazara was essentially unknown as the minor league season ended, but then blew up later in that same offseason (I guess stats/scouting reports got noticed). Anyone like that that you can think of this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Well he got the highest bonus in his J2 class, so he was pretty famous to scouts as a 15 year old. But, to further help explain prospect trajectory, we’re working on a project for just this purpose

ryan: Why does a team like the astros bring up lower rated prospects such as josh james when they have Bukauskas and Corbin Martin available?

Kiley McDaniel: One factor is they probably don’t care about Josh James’ 7th year of service

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Just curious, what was the internal discussion like when deciding to have THE BOARD always stylized in all caps?

Kiley McDaniel: IT JUST KIND OF HAPPENED

Kiley McDaniel: like “led” prospect analyst

Carlton: Is Yunior Severino a prospect you think can take off in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: Always been a fan, enormous bat speed guys often take a little longer like the tall pitchers, so patience will likely pay off here

Thomas: If you had to choose one hitting prospect for an Ottoneu style league, who would you want: Jonathan India or Adley Rutchsman?

New England : I’m having a truly awful day at work, tell me something, anything about the Red Sox farm system to just make my day.

Kiley McDaniel: None of them are embroiled in ForniteGate, although the story is developing

Zachary: Do some players have higher “game power” than “raw power” or does that go against the definitions of the terms?  I’m thinking of guys like Jose Ramirez or Hank Aaron who might hit a lot of homers without hitting a ton of moon-shots.

Kiley McDaniel: plus or plus plus bat control would be the way to do this. essentially tapping into the power to the part of the park you can hit it out of at a high frequency. Albies is another.

mlb: how many current 80 value players are there in the bigs?

Kiley McDaniel: The general scouts’ definition is 1-3 at each position. If you define it as 6+ WAR true talent, then it’s like 0-5 at each position. Maybe 10-12?

Justin: Do any scouts ever use the iPhone slow motion video feature for mechanics? Or are they good enough and/or stubborn enough to analyze mechanics in real time?

Kiley McDaniel: Some do. There’s some very high level scouts that are really into mechanics. They’re always fun to talk to

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a good analog for overall curiosity

barves: Thanks for the reply.  I’m 6’5 and 200lbs and suffer from what my dad calls “Noassatall” disease.  I find it nearly impossible to gain weight, which was frustrating in high school but a boon in adulthood.  Truck estimate would’ve been dead on for me.

Kiley McDaniel: From the frontlines of body projecting

Jim: So are you now higher on Bryse Wilson or think he’ll be higher up on the next version of the list based on your article this morning?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll be a 50 FV on the update

squeeze bunt: just purchased the add free membership and its glorious!

GSon: Can Tribe fans finally say… “The Yandy Man Can!!!”?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean they can…but shouldn’t

McDanielopathy: Is it possible to game the waiver trade system using PTBNL? Can a team include a “PTBNL” as part of the return for a waiver trade because they know the intended player would not pass through waivers ?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that’s the idea, name the player after the season when they don’t have to clear waivers

Tim Tebro: Hey, bro, do I ever make an impact in the bigs? Have a blessed day bro.

Kiley McDaniel: Oh, we’re there already. I’ve got some driving to do, so this should work

John Wick: JOHN. WICK.

Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: Damon Hive out here doing work. See you guys next week!