Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 2/27/15
10:57 |
: Some hiccups with CoverItLive, but think we’re good to go now. Should get an hour in here but leaving soon to see Ian Happ/Maryland draft matchups this afternoon at the PG Complex, then Iowa RHP Blake Hickman jumps in the mix tomorrow.
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10:57 |
hi |
10:57 |
: hi
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10:59 |
How concerning is Max Pentecost’s shoulder surgery? |
10:59 |
: Long-term it shouldn’t be a problem, but in the insta-reactions to every first round pick, he obviously loses a little stock to those types of people
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11:00 |
A lot of other red sox prospects are getting a ton of press this off season, how do you feel about Michael Kopech? |
11:00 | : He’s really good but still a little raw. I feel these things about him: |
11:00 |
That review should the International litter of prospects 2015-2016. |
11:01 |
: I guess I made the mistake of posting some videos and saying July 2 info was coming soon and now people are badgering me for info on twitter. Coming Monday along with the Angels list. Just be patient people.
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11:01 |
NYY knee jerk signing Olivera / Ibanez? |
11:03 |
: Wouldn’t shock me on either one, but haven’t heard them with Olivera and hearing other teams more on Ibanez, though there isn’t a ton of buzz on Ibanez in general.
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11:06 |
: NYY really flubbed the Moncada process. Almost all of what’s been reported is accurate, including many of the “characterizations” along with a couple other things I may reveal next week that I’ve uncovered, some of which is embarrassing for NYY.
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11:08 |
How are a bunch of 16 year olds are worth $34 million but the best 19 year old in the world is worth exactly $50 million but not $60 million? It’s a ridiculous line in the sand to draw and there are some multi-year, overarching trends in what NYY has been doing that should’ve made this easier to see coming. George Steinbrenner would’ve never let this happen and there’s more than just undertones of the PIT/Miguel Sano fiasco with NYY/Moncada. Teams that are run well and efficiently with clear delineations of who is in charge aren’t scared they might overpay relative to the 2nd highest bid if they think the price/player line up with their internal values. |
11:09 |
What are the chances that Devon Travis is a lowercase Mookie Betts? He seems criminally underrated by most prospect rankers. Bat to ball supersedes all!!! |
11:09 |
: I’m surprised I haven’t seen more Devon Travis truthers in these chats due to the numbers. He’s good. He’s not Mookie Betts. Tools are nowhere close.
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11:10 |
How much does Anthony Alford have to show this year to be considered a 45 or more FV prospect? |
11:10 |
: I have him as a 40+ right now and with a solid month I might move him up to 45 FV. Tools are that good and he’s played that little. Really interesting guy to watch this year.
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11:10 |
Why was Carlos Hiciano not mentioned on your A’s list? |
11:10 |
: Because he isn’t good enough right now?
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11:10 |
What is chris Andersons ceiling if he stops walking batters like he did on the last month of the season? |
11:11 |
: 3rd starter stuff when he’s right
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11:11 |
which college pitcher(s) in this yrs draft do you see having the quickest path to the mlb? |
11:12 |
: I guess the correct answer here are slam dunk top 5 guys with polish and relievers. There isn’t a healthy, polished top 5 guy right now (Aiken and Tate are the closest). Riley Ferrell at TCU is the best reliever and there’s a handful of more raw hard throwers behind him that could emerge.
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11:13 |
I’d stick around for your chat but I’m avoiding all talk about Yoan Moncada right now. The pain is still to real… |
11:13 |
: Feeling better now?
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11:13 |
I know it’s real early, but since the Mets don’t pick until 53, are there any cold weather kids who could drop to them like a Steven Matz? I see Mike Nikorak and Garrett Whitley on your early list. Any others to keep any eye on? |
11:14 |
Some warm weather guys have already moved up from that list, Dillon Tate the biggest one but GA prep Dakota Chalmers has hit 98 mph and has big helium. |
11:15 |
Can you put a grade on Tommy LaStella’s arm? Thoughts on him at 3B? |
11:15 |
http://www.fangraphs.com/st…
: It’s a 45, as I have it listed here: He could be fine there, is fringy at 2B and about the same at 3B. He’s definitely a bat first guy. |
11:15 |
Erik Gonzalez, ceiling as a util type, defense reliant or can he be an everyday type? |
11:15 |
: Chance to be low end everyday guy if he keeps hitting. Was utility type at this point last year, now may be a little more.
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11:15 |
At what point does prospect pedigree become meaningless for a big leaguer? If you have two 27 year olds projected for 3 WAR and one was a top prospect, should he be expected to play better? |
11:16 |
: Everything is case-by-case basis. If I made a broad generalization on something like this, you’d likely find the two exceptions and call me an idiot.
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11:16 |
Hi Kiley, there has been a lot of talk about Moncada’s tools and contract, but when will he actually start playing baseball, and where? Will they allow him to play 2b? |
11:16 |
: He took his physical so presumably really soon. Don’t know if the position decision had been made yet, but I’d guess he plays 2B and 3B and they see what works best, maybe even CF.
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11:17 |
What are your projections for Brendan Rodgers? Where would he rank on your prospects list today? |
11:18 |
draft list: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… and intro to the top 200: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… |
11:18 |
Yadier Alvarez: how are his non-fastball pitches and what’s his ceiling? |
11:19 | : Lots of answers here and a really dope video: |
11:19 |
What Cuban players do you think the Dodgers have their eyes on since they decided to walk away from your bff Yoan? |
11:19 |
: More on this on Monday!
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11:19 |
What’s the deal with Jacob Gatewood, light tower power but it’s not showing up in games. Can he fix his contact issues and take a step forward this year? |
11:20 |
:
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11:21 |
: Yeah that’s the deal with Gatewood. 65 or 70 raw power and game ability to hit ranges from laughably bad to just pretty raw. Probably a 3B but upside is still enormous if he can figure it out.
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11:21 |
If you ran a team like the Nationals who always have a small international budget and are either drafting towards the end of the first round or losing their first rounder to sign big-name FA’s, how would you go about building the minor league portion of your organization? |
11:22 |
: Easy to suggest every team should blow it out like NYY but some owners (I don’t know if WSH is one of them) just don’t like spending more than a few million a year in the DR. There’s at least 10 teams like this. WSH’s history internationally also likely factors into this still. They’ve still done pretty well given the smaller budgets.
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11:22 |
What’s the strength of the draft right now, (college pitching, HS catching, etc)? Is it overall strong draft or mediocre or what? Recent, shall we say, prospect related hiccups have some of us Yankee fans looking forward to our two first round picks this June. |
11:23 |
: Top of the draft is weaker than usual and right now a bunch of top college arms are banged up, but these things work out and most of the time, the class ends up being considered average around draft time.
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11:23 |
Scott Schebler has killed it statistically the past few years. At 24, he’s a bit old for a guy who hasn’t played above AA. Have you seen him? Do you think there’s major league value there? |
11:23 |
: Yep, saw him in AFL and liked him and got even more positive reports than I expected in past week on him. He’s a guy to watch, definite MLB value of some kind.
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11:23 |
What do you think about Nestor Cortes of the Yankees? Just a crafty lefty kind of guy, or potential to be more? |
11:24 |
: A
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11:24 |
The Rays have some young Venezuelan talent you seem pretty high on: pitchers German Marquez and Orlando Romero, and catcher David Rodriguez. Is it too early to get excited about any of them? |
11:27 |
: Marquez is already pretty darn good, Rodriguez has everyday type tools and Romero could be a huge breakout guy this year. I guess it depends what you plan to do with this excitement?
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11:27 |
How do you slot the two Stephens that the Pirates got from the Orioles? Will they be among the 45/40 prospects on their writeup? |
11:27 | : Wrote them both up here. Really like Tarpley: |
11:28 |
Who goes bigger on July 2: Dodgers or Phillies? |
11:28 |
: Looking like Phillies right now
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11:28 |
Current top 5 draft prospects? |
11:29 |
T-2. Dillon Tate and Brady Aiken 4. Mike Matuella 5. Any one of about 10-12 guys |
11:29 |
Just throwing it out there…Ibanez doesn’t make ton of sense for Yankees due to presence of Refsnyder. Am I right, wrong, or super way off base with that assessment? |
11:31 |
: Super way off base. You can’t avoid signing good players because you have a decent big league option. What if Refsnyder is awful this year and gets hurt, you pass on Ibanez and he’s a top prospect in AA by the end of the year that’s better than Refsnyder. You feel really dumb, right?
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11:31 |
Very young, but there doesn’t seem to be much out there on Vlad Guerrero Jr. Looks like a big, strong boy. Does the bat speed rate yet? |
11:33 |
Here’s video of him: https://www.youtube.com/wat… |
11:33 |
Weigh in for us…did New York just make a miscalculation on Moncada’s market? Surely they didn’t buck at upping their offer when they heard they were short by a few million. Or were they even given a chance to up their offer? |
11:35 |
Sounds like a combination of top scouts and ownership said $25M was enough, either because they thought it would be the best offer or Moncada would take it anyway because Cano is his favorite player. It’s more complicated than just misgauging the market value of the player, though. |
11:36 |
Realistic time Devers makes it to Boston (or whereever he’s traded)? 3 years away? |
11:36 | : 3-4 yeah. More on him here including a dope homer video with a crazy bench reaction: |
11:36 |
Is it possible for Happ to hit himself into top 5 consideration and leapfrog Swanson/Bregman? |
11:37 |
: I think he’s already ahead of Bregman. Will be tough to pass and/or get into top 5 given the positional advantage Swanson has.
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11:38 |
What prospect(s) not in the MLB Top 100 will debut in the big leagues during 2015? |
11:38 |
: A whole bunch of them
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11:38 |
Is Stetson Allie a bust? Seems time is running out on him |
11:38 |
: He was given lots of money to pitch and he isn’t pitching, so he kinda was a bust when that happened
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11:38 |
Does Dan Vogelbach ever develop into a “GUY” (good undervalued youngster) that does more than provide brief bench bat value? Do you think he’ll be at least capable of what Delmon Young did in the majors? |
11:39 |
: Guy doesn’t stand for anything. Miguel Cabrera is a guy and he ain’t young.
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11:39 |
Is Feleipe’Franks much of a draft propsect? Any chance he doesn’t end up playing football at LSU? |
11:39 |
: Last I heard he would play both but is probably a better football prospect
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11:39 |
whats your opinion on how giving millions of dollars to 16 year olds affects their development |
11:40 |
: It can but you try to pay the ones that it won’t affect as much
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11:40 |
Do you think Tim Anderson and Dan Robertson can stick at SS in the MLB? Seems like a lot of SS prospects are moved to another Position. |
11:40 |
: Yes, No
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11:40 |
In your experience, what causes a scout to “miss” or undervalue a prospect that eventually makes it big? Is it the prospect adapting his game in an unexpected way or just a mis-evaluation on the scouts part? |
11:41 |
: Sometimes tools change but usually existing tools play better than expected
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11:41 |
What’s a reasonable contract for Hector Oliviera? |
11:41 | : Lots on that here including a projected number for you |
11:42 |
What is your realistic expectation for Steven Souza this year? Projections have been all over the place. |
11:42 |
: 2+ WAR
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11:42 |
How is scouting done for countries in Asia? Is that a glamour gig or something step down? How much Asian scouting is prevalent overall? Can’t imagine all teams doing it. |
11:42 |
: Scouting is never glamorous at any level, anywhere, at any time
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11:42 |
Can you please elaborate on the “PIT/Miguel Sano fiasco”? I have not heard this before. Thanks Kiley! |
11:44 |
: Basically, they were terrified of paying much higher than the 2nd highest bid, so they tried to strong arm the family, spread some rumors about his age, etc. then the Twins stepped up and PIT looked pretty stupid for doing all this and alienating so many people over less than $1 million, which they apparently had the money to offer. Covered in more depth in the movie “Pelotero.”
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11:44 |
Rowdy Telez a player in a couple years? |
11:45 |
: Could be. Some feel to hit and giant raw power, also giant body.
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11:45 |
Thoughts on LAD’s Austin Barnes? Will he settle at a catcher, 2B, or 3B or is his calling card valuable utility man that can play everywhere? |
11:45 |
: Catcher first, but skills to play everywhere, so bat dictates how many positions he’ll play.
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11:45 |
Brian Cashman should have had an idea of how much Hal was willing to spend on Moncada going into the offseason no? If Cash really wanted him could he not have spent less elsewhere (cough Stephen Drew) or are there separate budgets for major league payroll/international |
11:45 |
: I wish things like this were really that simple. They never are.
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11:46 |
Kiley, any high school kids seriously moving up the 2015 draft boards based on early performances? |
11:46 |
: Dakota Chalmers is the big one. I should see him again in the next week or two.
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11:46 |
What FV would you assign to Marcus Stroman? |
11:46 |
: 65
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11:47 |
Couldn’t help but be curious, how come Lindor didn’t even make the 65 FV group in the prospect list? Are you more down on him than most? |
11:47 |
: I can’t speak for whoever most is, but I called him the 15th best prospect in baseball. That means I like him a lot.
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11:47 |
Best guess when Otani posts and comes to the majors? |
11:48 |
: Still should be years
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11:48 |
What are the odds Jason Garcia makes the 25 man and sticks on the Orioles in 2015? |
11:48 |
: Over 50%
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11:48 |
In your opinion, who is this year’s Mookie Betts? As in, guy with advanced skills in A/A+ that comes in to his own. Thanks for the chat, keep up the great work! |
11:48 |
: If I knew that I wouldn’t be chatting with you people
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11:48 |
Looking forward to the Jays list, should I be the early guy on the Dan Jansen hype train? No pedigree, but seems likely to stick at catcher, and torched the appy league with power and contact ability this year. If he’s anywhere close to that in A ball, could he be a breakout candidate? |
11:49 |
: He rises on the list after every call. Legit dude.
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11:49 |
Hey Kiley, dumb question. Here’s what you said about Bryan Emery: “Emery has legit seven figure ability, with 50-55 tools across the board, a smooth swing and athleticism and arm strength that can start in center field but likely ends up in right field”. If he has 50+ tools across the board, how come he isn’t on any of your prospect lists? |
11:49 |
: He’s 16 and has played in a handful of games in his entire life
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11:49 |
At the risk of sounding like a Yankee fan/elitist, I think Moncada was their guy to lose and they did exactly that. Everything that’s been said by Steinbrenner and NY media types on his behalf are obviously just attempts to take cover from their upset fan. |
11:50 |
: Yep, which is pretty sad given how little money would’ve delivered the player to them and taken him from the Red Sox.
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11:50 |
Clarify the PIT/Miguel Sano reference to the Moncada situation. I thought Plummer was the villain in Sano scenario with an overagressive Gayo contributing |
11:51 |
: You can read it different ways, but PIT could’ve had him for a number that started with 3 or 4 and refused to do it because they didn’t want to be the sucker…but they had the money and thought he was the best July 2 guy in years. You can’t be scared when you have conviction and resources.
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11:52 |
: I gotta run but there’s lots of questions in the queue of players I’ve written at length about in the past. write their name in the search box at the top of the page, go to their player page and look for the “evaluating the prospects” link. All will be found there.
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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
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