Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 2/27/15 by Kiley McDaniel February 27, 2015 10:57 Kiley McDaniel: Some hiccups with CoverItLive, but think we’re good to go now. Should get an hour in here but leaving soon to see Ian Happ/Maryland draft matchups this afternoon at the PG Complex, then Iowa RHP Blake Hickman jumps in the mix tomorrow. 10:57 Comment From hi hi 10:57 Kiley McDaniel: hi 10:59 Comment From Jheff How concerning is Max Pentecost’s shoulder surgery? 10:59 Kiley McDaniel: Long-term it shouldn’t be a problem, but in the insta-reactions to every first round pick, he obviously loses a little stock to those types of people 11:00 Comment From Colby A lot of other red sox prospects are getting a ton of press this off season, how do you feel about Michael Kopech? 11:00 Kiley McDaniel: He’s really good but still a little raw. I feel these things about him: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 11:00 Comment From Domingo That review should the International litter of prospects 2015-2016. 11:01 Kiley McDaniel: I guess I made the mistake of posting some videos and saying July 2 info was coming soon and now people are badgering me for info on twitter. Coming Monday along with the Angels list. Just be patient people. 11:01 Comment From Pat NYY knee jerk signing Olivera / Ibanez? 11:03 Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t shock me on either one, but haven’t heard them with Olivera and hearing other teams more on Ibanez, though there isn’t a ton of buzz on Ibanez in general. 11:06 Kiley McDaniel: NYY really flubbed the Moncada process. Almost all of what’s been reported is accurate, including many of the “characterizations” along with a couple other things I may reveal next week that I’ve uncovered, some of which is embarrassing for NYY. 11:08 Kiley McDaniel: It sounds like NYY genuinely didn’t think Moncada was worth what BOS paid, but they approached it the wrong way and there’s one bigger question they can’t/likely won’t answer. How are a bunch of 16 year olds are worth $34 million but the best 19 year old in the world is worth exactly $50 million but not $60 million? It’s a ridiculous line in the sand to draw and there are some multi-year, overarching trends in what NYY has been doing that should’ve made this easier to see coming. George Steinbrenner would’ve never let this happen and there’s more than just undertones of the PIT/Miguel Sano fiasco with NYY/Moncada. Teams that are run well and efficiently with clear delineations of who is in charge aren’t scared they might overpay relative to the 2nd highest bid if they think the price/player line up with their internal values. 11:09 Comment From DKNJ What are the chances that Devon Travis is a lowercase Mookie Betts? He seems criminally underrated by most prospect rankers. Bat to ball supersedes all!!! 11:09 Kiley McDaniel: I’m surprised I haven’t seen more Devon Travis truthers in these chats due to the numbers. He’s good. He’s not Mookie Betts. Tools are nowhere close. 11:10 Comment From Jays fan How much does Anthony Alford have to show this year to be considered a 45 or more FV prospect? 11:10 Kiley McDaniel: I have him as a 40+ right now and with a solid month I might move him up to 45 FV. Tools are that good and he’s played that little. Really interesting guy to watch this year. 11:10 Comment From Carter Why was Carlos Hiciano not mentioned on your A’s list? 11:10 Kiley McDaniel: Because he isn’t good enough right now? 11:10 Comment From tony What is chris Andersons ceiling if he stops walking batters like he did on the last month of the season? 11:11 Kiley McDaniel: 3rd starter stuff when he’s right 11:11 Comment From me which college pitcher(s) in this yrs draft do you see having the quickest path to the mlb? 11:12 Kiley McDaniel: I guess the correct answer here are slam dunk top 5 guys with polish and relievers. There isn’t a healthy, polished top 5 guy right now (Aiken and Tate are the closest). Riley Ferrell at TCU is the best reliever and there’s a handful of more raw hard throwers behind him that could emerge. 11:13 Comment From Heartbroken in New York I’d stick around for your chat but I’m avoiding all talk about Yoan Moncada right now. The pain is still to real… 11:13 Kiley McDaniel: Feeling better now? 11:13 Comment From Bren I know it’s real early, but since the Mets don’t pick until 53, are there any cold weather kids who could drop to them like a Steven Matz? I see Mike Nikorak and Garrett Whitley on your early list. Any others to keep any eye on? 11:14 Kiley McDaniel: I’d just look at that for now. The northern kids don’t emerge until about April/May when things thaw out and high level scouts head up there, so not much movement on those guys. Some warm weather guys have already moved up from that list, Dillon Tate the biggest one but GA prep Dakota Chalmers has hit 98 mph and has big helium. 11:15 Comment From Dan Can you put a grade on Tommy LaStella’s arm? Thoughts on him at 3B? 11:15 Kiley McDaniel: It’s a 45, as I have it listed here: http://www.fangraphs.com/st… He could be fine there, is fringy at 2B and about the same at 3B. He’s definitely a bat first guy. 11:15 Comment From RoryGilmore Erik Gonzalez, ceiling as a util type, defense reliant or can he be an everyday type? 11:15 Kiley McDaniel: Chance to be low end everyday guy if he keeps hitting. Was utility type at this point last year, now may be a little more. 11:15 Comment From Graham At what point does prospect pedigree become meaningless for a big leaguer? If you have two 27 year olds projected for 3 WAR and one was a top prospect, should he be expected to play better? 11:16 Kiley McDaniel: Everything is case-by-case basis. If I made a broad generalization on something like this, you’d likely find the two exceptions and call me an idiot. 11:16 Comment From CoolWinnebago Hi Kiley, there has been a lot of talk about Moncada’s tools and contract, but when will he actually start playing baseball, and where? Will they allow him to play 2b? 11:16 Kiley McDaniel: He took his physical so presumably really soon. Don’t know if the position decision had been made yet, but I’d guess he plays 2B and 3B and they see what works best, maybe even CF. 11:17 Comment From John What are your projections for Brendan Rodgers? Where would he rank on your prospects list today? 11:18 Kiley McDaniel: I’ve answered both those questions on my draft list: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… and intro to the top 200: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 11:18 Comment From Sean Yadier Alvarez: how are his non-fastball pitches and what’s his ceiling? 11:19 Kiley McDaniel: Lots of answers here and a really dope video: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 11:19 Comment From Medio What Cuban players do you think the Dodgers have their eyes on since they decided to walk away from your bff Yoan? 11:19 Kiley McDaniel: More on this on Monday! 11:19 Comment From Doug What’s the deal with Jacob Gatewood, light tower power but it’s not showing up in games. Can he fix his contact issues and take a step forward this year? 11:20 : 11:21 Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that’s the deal with Gatewood. 65 or 70 raw power and game ability to hit ranges from laughably bad to just pretty raw. Probably a 3B but upside is still enormous if he can figure it out. 11:21 Comment From Sean If you ran a team like the Nationals who always have a small international budget and are either drafting towards the end of the first round or losing their first rounder to sign big-name FA’s, how would you go about building the minor league portion of your organization? 11:22 Kiley McDaniel: Easy to suggest every team should blow it out like NYY but some owners (I don’t know if WSH is one of them) just don’t like spending more than a few million a year in the DR. There’s at least 10 teams like this. WSH’s history internationally also likely factors into this still. They’ve still done pretty well given the smaller budgets. 11:22 Comment From The Bronx Empire What’s the strength of the draft right now, (college pitching, HS catching, etc)? Is it overall strong draft or mediocre or what? Recent, shall we say, prospect related hiccups have some of us Yankee fans looking forward to our two first round picks this June. 11:23 Kiley McDaniel: Top of the draft is weaker than usual and right now a bunch of top college arms are banged up, but these things work out and most of the time, the class ends up being considered average around draft time. 11:23 Comment From Jim K Scott Schebler has killed it statistically the past few years. At 24, he’s a bit old for a guy who hasn’t played above AA. Have you seen him? Do you think there’s major league value there? 11:23 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, saw him in AFL and liked him and got even more positive reports than I expected in past week on him. He’s a guy to watch, definite MLB value of some kind. 11:23 Comment From Nick What do you think about Nestor Cortes of the Yankees? Just a crafty lefty kind of guy, or potential to be more? 11:24 Kiley McDaniel: A 11:24 Comment From d-russ The Rays have some young Venezuelan talent you seem pretty high on: pitchers German Marquez and Orlando Romero, and catcher David Rodriguez. Is it too early to get excited about any of them? 11:27 Kiley McDaniel: Marquez is already pretty darn good, Rodriguez has everyday type tools and Romero could be a huge breakout guy this year. I guess it depends what you plan to do with this excitement? 11:27 Comment From Steve How do you slot the two Stephens that the Pirates got from the Orioles? Will they be among the 45/40 prospects on their writeup? 11:27 Kiley McDaniel: Wrote them both up here. Really like Tarpley: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 11:28 Comment From keith Who goes bigger on July 2: Dodgers or Phillies? 11:28 Kiley McDaniel: Looking like Phillies right now 11:28 Comment From Proswagonist Current top 5 draft prospects? 11:29 Kiley McDaniel: 1. Brandon Rodgers T-2. Dillon Tate and Brady Aiken 4. Mike Matuella 5. Any one of about 10-12 guys 11:29 Comment From The Bronx Empire Just throwing it out there…Ibanez doesn’t make ton of sense for Yankees due to presence of Refsnyder. Am I right, wrong, or super way off base with that assessment? 11:31 Kiley McDaniel: Super way off base. You can’t avoid signing good players because you have a decent big league option. What if Refsnyder is awful this year and gets hurt, you pass on Ibanez and he’s a top prospect in AA by the end of the year that’s better than Refsnyder. You feel really dumb, right? 11:31 Comment From twitterless Very young, but there doesn’t seem to be much out there on Vlad Guerrero Jr. Looks like a big, strong boy. Does the bat speed rate yet? 11:33 Kiley McDaniel: Above average bat speed, plus raw power, average arm (I know that’s a letdown), corner outfielder and good feel to make contact in games but wasn’t that great the two days I saw him. Here’s video of him: https://www.youtube.com/wat… 11:33 Comment From The Bronx Empire Weigh in for us…did New York just make a miscalculation on Moncada’s market? Surely they didn’t buck at upping their offer when they heard they were short by a few million. Or were they even given a chance to up their offer? 11:35 Kiley McDaniel: They had a shot and didn’t take it. I think some of it was the agent, who they hadn’t dealt with before and it seems like they thought he was fabricating offers and trying to make a name for himself. How dumb would it be to not give them a chance to top any offer? No one is that stupid. Sounds like a combination of top scouts and ownership said $25M was enough, either because they thought it would be the best offer or Moncada would take it anyway because Cano is his favorite player. It’s more complicated than just misgauging the market value of the player, though. 11:36 Comment From Paul Realistic time Devers makes it to Boston (or whereever he’s traded)? 3 years away? 11:36 Kiley McDaniel: 3-4 yeah. More on him here including a dope homer video with a crazy bench reaction: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 11:36 Comment From Proswagonist Is it possible for Happ to hit himself into top 5 consideration and leapfrog Swanson/Bregman? 11:37 Kiley McDaniel: I think he’s already ahead of Bregman. Will be tough to pass and/or get into top 5 given the positional advantage Swanson has. 11:38 Comment From Bobo What prospect(s) not in the MLB Top 100 will debut in the big leagues during 2015? 11:38 Kiley McDaniel: A whole bunch of them 11:38 Comment From Big dog taco Is Stetson Allie a bust? Seems time is running out on him 11:38 Kiley McDaniel: He was given lots of money to pitch and he isn’t pitching, so he kinda was a bust when that happened 11:38 Comment From Jeff Gross Does Dan Vogelbach ever develop into a “GUY” (good undervalued youngster) that does more than provide brief bench bat value? Do you think he’ll be at least capable of what Delmon Young did in the majors? 11:39 Kiley McDaniel: Guy doesn’t stand for anything. Miguel Cabrera is a guy and he ain’t young. 11:39 Comment From Proswagonist Is Feleipe’Franks much of a draft propsect? Any chance he doesn’t end up playing football at LSU? 11:39 Kiley McDaniel: Last I heard he would play both but is probably a better football prospect 11:39 Comment From dom whats your opinion on how giving millions of dollars to 16 year olds affects their development 11:40 Kiley McDaniel: It can but you try to pay the ones that it won’t affect as much 11:40 Comment From somewhere+in+the+midwest Do you think Tim Anderson and Dan Robertson can stick at SS in the MLB? Seems like a lot of SS prospects are moved to another Position. 11:40 Kiley McDaniel: Yes, No 11:40 Comment From st roll In your experience, what causes a scout to “miss” or undervalue a prospect that eventually makes it big? Is it the prospect adapting his game in an unexpected way or just a mis-evaluation on the scouts part? 11:41 Kiley McDaniel: Sometimes tools change but usually existing tools play better than expected 11:41 Comment From Sam What’s a reasonable contract for Hector Oliviera? 11:41 Kiley McDaniel: Lots on that here including a projected number for you http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 11:42 Comment From EC What is your realistic expectation for Steven Souza this year? Projections have been all over the place. 11:42 Kiley McDaniel: 2+ WAR 11:42 Comment From Big+dog+taco How is scouting done for countries in Asia? Is that a glamour gig or something step down? How much Asian scouting is prevalent overall? Can’t imagine all teams doing it. 11:42 Kiley McDaniel: Scouting is never glamorous at any level, anywhere, at any time 11:42 Comment From JBizzy Can you please elaborate on the “PIT/Miguel Sano fiasco”? I have not heard this before. Thanks Kiley! 11:44 Kiley McDaniel: Basically, they were terrified of paying much higher than the 2nd highest bid, so they tried to strong arm the family, spread some rumors about his age, etc. then the Twins stepped up and PIT looked pretty stupid for doing all this and alienating so many people over less than $1 million, which they apparently had the money to offer. Covered in more depth in the movie “Pelotero.” 11:44 Comment From JBizzy Rowdy Telez a player in a couple years? 11:45 Kiley McDaniel: Could be. Some feel to hit and giant raw power, also giant body. 11:45 Comment From Adam from LA Thoughts on LAD’s Austin Barnes? Will he settle at a catcher, 2B, or 3B or is his calling card valuable utility man that can play everywhere? 11:45 Kiley McDaniel: Catcher first, but skills to play everywhere, so bat dictates how many positions he’ll play. 11:45 Comment From dom Brian Cashman should have had an idea of how much Hal was willing to spend on Moncada going into the offseason no? If Cash really wanted him could he not have spent less elsewhere (cough Stephen Drew) or are there separate budgets for major league payroll/international 11:45 Kiley McDaniel: I wish things like this were really that simple. They never are. 11:46 Comment From Warren G. Kiley, any high school kids seriously moving up the 2015 draft boards based on early performances? 11:46 Kiley McDaniel: Dakota Chalmers is the big one. I should see him again in the next week or two. 11:46 Comment From Jheff What FV would you assign to Marcus Stroman? 11:46 Kiley McDaniel: 65 11:47 Comment From NYYFan Couldn’t help but be curious, how come Lindor didn’t even make the 65 FV group in the prospect list? Are you more down on him than most? 11:47 Kiley McDaniel: I can’t speak for whoever most is, but I called him the 15th best prospect in baseball. That means I like him a lot. 11:47 Comment From Sean Best guess when Otani posts and comes to the majors? 11:48 Kiley McDaniel: Still should be years 11:48 Comment From mtsw What are the odds Jason Garcia makes the 25 man and sticks on the Orioles in 2015? 11:48 Kiley McDaniel: Over 50% 11:48 Comment From Kenneth Griffey Jr In your opinion, who is this year’s Mookie Betts? As in, guy with advanced skills in A/A+ that comes in to his own. Thanks for the chat, keep up the great work! 11:48 Kiley McDaniel: If I knew that I wouldn’t be chatting with you people 11:48 Comment From Expo 45 Looking forward to the Jays list, should I be the early guy on the Dan Jansen hype train? No pedigree, but seems likely to stick at catcher, and torched the appy league with power and contact ability this year. If he’s anywhere close to that in A ball, could he be a breakout candidate? 11:49 Kiley McDaniel: He rises on the list after every call. Legit dude. 11:49 Comment From Goat Hey Kiley, dumb question. Here’s what you said about Bryan Emery: “Emery has legit seven figure ability, with 50-55 tools across the board, a smooth swing and athleticism and arm strength that can start in center field but likely ends up in right field”. If he has 50+ tools across the board, how come he isn’t on any of your prospect lists? 11:49 Kiley McDaniel: He’s 16 and has played in a handful of games in his entire life 11:49 Comment From The Bronx Empire At the risk of sounding like a Yankee fan/elitist, I think Moncada was their guy to lose and they did exactly that. Everything that’s been said by Steinbrenner and NY media types on his behalf are obviously just attempts to take cover from their upset fan. 11:50 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, which is pretty sad given how little money would’ve delivered the player to them and taken him from the Red Sox. 11:50 Comment From Kyle Clarify the PIT/Miguel Sano reference to the Moncada situation. I thought Plummer was the villain in Sano scenario with an overagressive Gayo contributing 11:51 Kiley McDaniel: You can read it different ways, but PIT could’ve had him for a number that started with 3 or 4 and refused to do it because they didn’t want to be the sucker…but they had the money and thought he was the best July 2 guy in years. You can’t be scared when you have conviction and resources. 11:52 Kiley McDaniel: I gotta run but there’s lots of questions in the queue of players I’ve written at length about in the past. write their name in the search box at the top of the page, go to their player page and look for the “evaluating the prospects” link. All will be found there.